Talk Elections

Washington Post / U. of Maryland poll of Maryland, conducted March 30 - April 3:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/md-politics/poll-clinton-trump-lead-in-maryland/2016/04/07/f21637c4-fb3b-11e5-9140-e61d062438bb_story.html

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-university-of-maryland-poll-march-30-april-3-2016/2008/

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Clinton is going to win Maryland by much more than 15 points.

I can live with a floor at 40%.

I know it's completely anecdotal and not representative of the actual state of the race, but here in MoCo I've only seen Sanders volunteers and signs. Only thing I've seen for Clinton is the occasional bumper sticker. If Sanders can do well here, he could keep the margin respectable.

The lowest margin in a poll in Maryland so far!

Kasich should bag a couple of CD's with those numbers.

As I stated before...MD is much for favorable terrain for Kasich than CT. A larger share of MD suburbanites relative to Connecticut...which is really just one county.

I could see Trump losing in MD quite easily if Cruz voters strategically switch to Kasich there.

I imagine Kasiich is performing well in the counties in the DC metro.

Kasich's problem is the gerrymander.

These numbers look about right. On both sides.

That's a pretty good result for Sanders. Maryland should be his worst state by far on 4/26.

trump would likely lose some important delegates if this margin is correct.

Which delegates are unimportant?  #alldelegatesmatter #delegatesarepeople

This is what happens when everybody gets a participation trophy folks, smh

Polls have systematically under estimated Clinton's performance in the South.

40% in MD - Wow? MD was gonna be a blood-bath it seemed.

If we end up with 45-55 for me that is a huge huge result. I hope we crack 40%

I'm surprised Clinton isn't up by more, and that Kasich is still quite far behind Trump.

Trump is weak if he's only polling 40 percent in MD.

I could make the argument that Sanders now seems in a position to (possibly) win NY, PA, MD and CA. If he continues his upward rise he is easily within striking distance, although winning them won't bring him to 2026. If you subtract the margin of error, Clinton is below 50% and if you then add the undecideds, Sanders wins all four. What a victory that would be. If he pulls off wins in all states like WI he could win the nomination. This may seem a bit optimistic, but why not keep hope alive?

I am not predicting anything or even guessing anything. However, his chances do seem to be increasing however tiny. Nobody knows anything. Neither do I. I am feeling the Bern.

Good thing Maryland isn't in the South then.

That's not what you people were saying a while ago.

I think the talk was about Virginia being a southern state, which you disagreed with so I'm assuming you don't consider Maryland southern either.

Wow. Wasn't expecting either of those.

Looks like Western Maryland is voting similar to other rural areas on the Democratic side. On the Republican side it just looks like the wealthy DC suburbs are bolstering Kasich's support; same thing happened in Virginia except with Rubio.

I never said that. There are qualities of Maryland that are Southern, but the state is definitily Mid-Atlantic now

what would the delegate allocation on R side look like with result like this?

It's mostly WTA by district with some statewide WTA.  Trump would win statewide, but clearly Kasich is getting the equivalent of the Rubio NOVA vote near DC.  The problem for Kasich is that all of the districts are gerrymandered at least somewhat into culturally Appalachian or culturally Southern areas.  Kasich's best bet is MD-04, the DC area VRA district.  Then there's MD-05 and MD-08.  Both get close to DC but also extend far out into what should be fairly Trumpy areas.  I would think Kasich is a better bet in MD-08, where there's some very moderate ancestral R's left who never changed their registration.  I would think Baltimore Metro is classic Trump territory, but I could be wrong.     

New Poll: Maryland President by Washington Post on 2016-04-03 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2420160403145)

Summary:

Clinton:	55%
Sanders:	40%
Other:	1%
Undecided:	4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-university-of-maryland-poll-march-30-april-3-2016/2008/)