Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls => Topic started by: psychprofessor on April 10, 2016, 08:27:10 am



Title: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: psychprofessor on April 10, 2016, 08:27:10 am
Trump 54
Kasich 22
Cruz 15

Clinton 53
Sanders 37

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/10/fox-news-poll-trump-clinton-rule-empire-state.html


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: dspNY on April 10, 2016, 08:31:57 am
Dem electorate looks locked in

85% of Clinton supporters are certain to support her
79% of Sanders supporters are certain to support him


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: olowakandi on April 10, 2016, 08:34:28 am
Hoping Clinton nears 60. Her base is Philly and NE.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: dspNY on April 10, 2016, 08:37:13 am
Hoping Clinton nears 60. Her base is Philly and NE.

Probably looking at something like 57-43 or 58-42 according to that poll


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Shadows on April 10, 2016, 08:39:27 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: dspNY on April 10, 2016, 08:43:56 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: RJEvans on April 10, 2016, 08:45:59 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

A good portion of Sanders'supporters are not Democrats and wouldn't have voted for her or any Democrat not named Bernie Sanders. Yet both beat Trump by similar margins.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 10, 2016, 08:52:03 am
Dem race by race:

whites:
Clinton 51%
Sanders 38%

blacks:
Clinton 61%
Sanders 29%

GOP race by education level:

college degree:
Trump 49%
Kasich 26%
Cruz 16%

no college degree:
Trump 62%
Kasich 16%
Cruz 14%

GOP second choice:
Kasich 31%
Cruz 24%
Trump 10%

The second choices of Trump supporters:
Kasich 40%
Cruz 26%

The second choices of Kasich supporters:
Cruz 44%
Trump 26%


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 10, 2016, 08:54:14 am
Hoping Clinton nears 60. Her base is Philly and NE.

Interesting.  I wasn't aware that Philly was in New York.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on April 10, 2016, 08:57:59 am
Hoping Clinton nears 60. Her base is Philly and NE.

Interesting.  I wasn't aware that Philly was in New York.

That means PA is Likely R this year. :D


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Shadows on April 10, 2016, 09:02:43 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders' best NY poll so far!


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: dspNY on April 10, 2016, 09:05:07 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: olowakandi on April 10, 2016, 09:06:55 am
She's beating Trump 45/42 and Sanders 50/44. Clinton will win 50/46 Pa. But, I do believe Clinton, with Trump has 271 to clinch election with Castro and chance to win Va for 284.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on April 10, 2016, 09:08:09 am
But, I do believe Clinton, with Trump has 271 to clinch election with Castro

Not 272?


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: olowakandi on April 10, 2016, 09:08:54 am
ME 2


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Mr. Morden on April 10, 2016, 09:22:37 am
ME 2

You too?


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Shadows on April 10, 2016, 09:23:43 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)

Do you have links, proofs to show 63% of the voters were over 45 because this is completely not matching with almost any of the states voting this time? NY has a lower median age than almost all North-Eastern states.

As you say the older voters stays but a section of the older people die & the newer voters added are mostly Sanders voters,  9-16 year old voters of 2008 will be voting now!

Secondly, most of the states have aged by 1-1.5 years odd from 05 to now. NY by comparison has aged from 0.7 which means in comparison to other states it has aged less.

I am sticking with a +10 Clinton as per this poll (which is junk IMO) till we get 63% of the voters being 45 & above
http://www.denverpost.com/datacenter/ci_28937933/chart-compare-average-age-each-u-s-state


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: dspNY on April 10, 2016, 09:27:47 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)

Do you have links, proofs to show 63% of the voters were over 45 because this is completely not matching with almost any of the states voting this time? NY has a lower median age than almost all North-Eastern states.

As you say the older voters stays but a section of the older people die & the newer voters added are mostly Sanders voters,  9-16 year old voters of 2008 will be voting now!

Secondly, most of the states have aged by 1-1.5 years odd from 05 to now. NY by comparison has aged from 0.7 which means in comparison to other states it has aged less.

I am sticking with a +10 Clinton as per this poll (which is junk IMO) till we get 63% of the voters being 45 & above
http://www.denverpost.com/datacenter/ci_28937933/chart-compare-average-age-each-u-s-state

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NY.html

Roll down to where it says age and get a little educated about my home state


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Shadows on April 10, 2016, 09:28:13 am
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#NY

CNN Exit Poll showing 63% of the voters above 45!


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: dspNY on April 10, 2016, 09:29:00 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)

Do you have links, proofs to show 63% of the voters were over 45 because this is completely not matching with almost any of the states voting this time? NY has a lower median age than almost all North-Eastern states.

As you say the older voters stays but a section of the older people die & the newer voters added are mostly Sanders voters,  9-16 year old voters of 2008 will be voting now!

Secondly, most of the states have aged by 1-1.5 years odd from 05 to now. NY by comparison has aged from 0.7 which means in comparison to other states it has aged less.

I am sticking with a +10 Clinton as per this poll (which is junk IMO) till we get 63% of the voters being 45 & above
http://www.denverpost.com/datacenter/ci_28937933/chart-compare-average-age-each-u-s-state

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NY.html

Roll down to where it says age and get a little educated about my home state.

Also remember that New York has been LOSING congressional districts for the past 40 years which is the ultimate sign of an aging state


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Shadows on April 10, 2016, 09:35:59 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)

Do you have links, proofs to show 63% of the voters were over 45 because this is completely not matching with almost any of the states voting this time? NY has a lower median age than almost all North-Eastern states.

As you say the older voters stays but a section of the older people die & the newer voters added are mostly Sanders voters,  9-16 year old voters of 2008 will be voting now!

Secondly, most of the states have aged by 1-1.5 years odd from 05 to now. NY by comparison has aged from 0.7 which means in comparison to other states it has aged less.

I am sticking with a +10 Clinton as per this poll (which is junk IMO) till we get 63% of the voters being 45 & above
http://www.denverpost.com/datacenter/ci_28937933/chart-compare-average-age-each-u-s-state

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NY.html

Roll down to where it says age and get a little educated about my home state

Yea I posted the poll before seeing your post.

If the numbers of 08 hold, 63% - 45 & above, 37% - 44 & Lower.

Clinton gets 52% to Sanders 39%, 9% Undecided/Other. Clinton leads by 13% as of now according to this poll.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 10, 2016, 09:48:41 am
Shadows desperately skewing the polls as his candidate's nasty and dishonest campaign crashes and burns. Sad!


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Shadows on April 10, 2016, 10:06:48 am
Shadows desperately skewing the polls as his candidate's nasty and dishonest campaign crashes and burns. Sad!

I am calling for your ban - A 13, 14 or 16% does not make much of a difference, it is within the MOE!

You should be banned!


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 10, 2016, 10:21:49 am
Shadows desperately skewing the polls as his candidate's nasty and dishonest campaign crashes and burns. Sad!

I am calling for your ban - A 13, 14 or 16% does not make much of a difference, it is within the MOE!

You should be banned!

Shadows supports a communist and wants to shut down speech of those who disagree with him. Un-American, not good!


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: RJEvans on April 10, 2016, 10:39:25 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)

Do you have links, proofs to show 63% of the voters were over 45 because this is completely not matching with almost any of the states voting this time? NY has a lower median age than almost all North-Eastern states.

As you say the older voters stays but a section of the older people die & the newer voters added are mostly Sanders voters,  9-16 year old voters of 2008 will be voting now!

Secondly, most of the states have aged by 1-1.5 years odd from 05 to now. NY by comparison has aged from 0.7 which means in comparison to other states it has aged less.

I am sticking with a +10 Clinton as per this poll (which is junk IMO) till we get 63% of the voters being 45 & above
http://www.denverpost.com/datacenter/ci_28937933/chart-compare-average-age-each-u-s-state

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NY.html

Roll down to where it says age and get a little educated about my home state

Yea I posted the poll before seeing your post.

If the numbers of 08 hold, 63% - 45 & above, 37% - 44 & Lower.

Clinton gets 52% to Sanders 39%, 9% Undecided/Other. Clinton leads by 13% as of now according to this poll.

Stop trying to unskew the polls. It didn't work for President Romney.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 10, 2016, 10:47:36 am
Stop engaging Shadows please. The guy is an obvious troll/sock if I ever saw one.
He makes winfield and jfern's posts look thoughtful and even-handed.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on April 10, 2016, 11:02:23 am
I'm guessing the GE poll was junk because it was based of off primary voters. These margins look about right, so I'm definitely sticking with my prediction of Clinton by 15%, and Trump getting 55%.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Never Beto on April 10, 2016, 11:10:46 am
Cenk & Jimmy have deluded themselves into believing that Sanders can win all of the remaining primaries. Wonder where they'll move the goalpost after he loses here.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Shadows on April 10, 2016, 11:31:37 am
Looks like a very poor poll - I think the "Junk" Label could be added - There are no break-ups of number or % of voters under age 18-29, over 65 etc which could decide. No breakup of whites, blacks, hispanics in the Dem Primary.

It's a random sample - 748 Landline & 655 Cell for both parties - No breakups of one. The landline number seems such that it is likely to have a more older mix than other polls thus favoring Clinton.

Regardless of results, looks a poor man's poll.

One notable thing - 30% of Sanders supporters would consider voting 3rd party vs 6% of Clinton's!

I think the margin is almost exactly right and if anything understates Clinton's advantage by around 3-4 points. Almost half the sample was cell phones which makes sense and the crosstabs make sense but my question is whether they folded most of the Latino numbers into the white crosstab. The age breakdowns make sense for NY's population. We are an older state; we're not all hipsters here!

You will be shocked with the numbers -

This is the break-up

Age - Under 45 - 27% of the Voters
Age - Over 45 - 63% of the Voters


(Based on their Under & Above 45 Breakup & Overall Result - You can use unitary method to deduce the same)

Based on past polls on an average close to 43-44-45% of the voters is under 45. In Michigan, it was very high (above 50%) & some-places much lesser.

If I take the average age-break up in Dem contest & put it with the breakup, Clinton is leading Sanders around 50%-40% (10% Gap).

That is why I said this poll has too high a weight-age of older voters - Same reason why Trump is only down 16% to Clinton when Romney lost by 30%

I think it is safe to toss this as junk - But as a Sanders fan this is Sanders best NY poll so far!

Umm...the last time New York had a competitive primary 63% of the voters WERE 45 or older and it'll probably be higher than that this year because NY is an aging state! You sound like the Romney people trying to unskew polls.

In fact, in 2008 30% of the Dem electorate was 60 or older and 33% was 45-59. This is Clinton's wheelhouse in NY. These are people who have voted for a Clinton five times (Bill twice and Hillary three times)

Do you have links, proofs to show 63% of the voters were over 45 because this is completely not matching with almost any of the states voting this time? NY has a lower median age than almost all North-Eastern states.

As you say the older voters stays but a section of the older people die & the newer voters added are mostly Sanders voters,  9-16 year old voters of 2008 will be voting now!

Secondly, most of the states have aged by 1-1.5 years odd from 05 to now. NY by comparison has aged from 0.7 which means in comparison to other states it has aged less.

I am sticking with a +10 Clinton as per this poll (which is junk IMO) till we get 63% of the voters being 45 & above
http://www.denverpost.com/datacenter/ci_28937933/chart-compare-average-age-each-u-s-state

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/vote-polls/NY.html

Roll down to where it says age and get a little educated about my home state

Yea I posted the poll before seeing your post.

If the numbers of 08 hold, 63% - 45 & above, 37% - 44 & Lower.

Clinton gets 52% to Sanders 39%, 9% Undecided/Other. Clinton leads by 13% as of now according to this poll.

Stop trying to unskew the polls. It didn't work for President Romney.

Ok then Demographic show this as a Junk Poll over-estimating Clinton


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Holmes on April 10, 2016, 11:42:51 am
If Clinton leads the white vote by 13%, it's gonna be a bigger margin of victory than 16%.


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: dspNY on April 10, 2016, 11:46:47 am
If Clinton leads the white vote by 13%, it's gonna be a bigger margin of victory than 16%.

I'm wondering whether Fox folded a lot of the Hispanic demo into White. They should have had a separate Hispanic demo for New York of all places


Title: Re: NY (Fox News): Clinton +16; Trump at 54
Post by: Eraserhead on April 10, 2016, 12:10:06 pm
Well, at least Sanders looks guaranteed to perform better than Teachout.


Title: NY PrimR: Fox News: Trump with Commanding Lead in New York
Post by: Dave Leip on April 11, 2016, 10:06:11 am
New Poll: New York President by Fox News on 2016-04-07 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620160407039)

Summary:
Trump:
54%
Kasich:
22%
Cruz:
15%
Other:
1%
Undecided:
8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/04/10/fox-news-poll-2016-new-york-state-primary/)



Title: NY PrimD: Fox News: Clinton With Substantial Lead in Pennsylvania
Post by: Dave Leip on April 11, 2016, 10:09:18 am
New Poll: New York President by Fox News on 2016-04-07 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620160407039)

Summary:
Clinton:
53%
Sanders:
37%
Other:
1%
Undecided:
9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/04/10/fox-news-poll-2016-new-york-state-primary/)