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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls => Topic started by: Landslide Lyndon on April 11, 2016, 04:02:57 pm



Title: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 11, 2016, 04:02:57 pm
Clinton 55%
Sanders 41%



Trump 54%
Kasich 21%
Cruz 18%


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: marty on April 11, 2016, 04:05:15 pm
Nothing unexpected in these numbers.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: / on April 11, 2016, 04:05:20 pm
lel


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 11, 2016, 04:06:14 pm
New York continues to be a terrible state.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Gass3268 on April 11, 2016, 04:07:23 pm
Trump could get 100% of the delegates here with that number.

Numbers about on par for the Democrats.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Wiz in Wis on April 11, 2016, 04:10:53 pm
14 point win for Hillary nets her about 30 delegates, at least.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: marty on April 11, 2016, 04:21:40 pm
Wisconsin is better than NY by every measure except tourism.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Holmes on April 11, 2016, 04:27:13 pm
Wisconsin is better than NY by every measure except tourism.

In other words, even if Wisconsin is better, no one cares and they would prefer to visit New York instead.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on April 11, 2016, 04:28:03 pm
Polls are finding a pretty clear consensus for this state.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 11, 2016, 04:30:50 pm
Most number-crunchers agree that based on demographics Clinton should win by a 15 point margin.
Almost every pollster agrees with them.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Castro on April 11, 2016, 04:32:41 pm
Seems like Clinton has a good base of around 55% with room to grow. Trump looks to be around the same area, though with probably tighter constraints.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: psychprofessor on April 11, 2016, 04:41:46 pm
New York should be easy to poll - very closed primary with no Independents. I don't think we will have a Michigan like surprise here.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Seriously? on April 11, 2016, 04:50:08 pm
Trump could get 100% of the delegates here with that number.

Numbers about on par for the Democrats.

I think 54% is probably a little thin to take every delegate in every CD with 50% being the WTA number in those districts, else a 2/1 split. I probably have it at 5-15 delegates being picked off at that level.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Seriously? on April 11, 2016, 04:57:26 pm
Clinton 55%
Sanders 41%



Trump 54%
Kasich 21%
Cruz 18%


Is there a link to that? I only see the Hillary! +12 on their Twitter, with the old poll posted from about a week ago.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 11, 2016, 05:03:08 pm
Clinton 55%
Sanders 41%



Trump 54%
Kasich 21%
Cruz 18%


Is there a link to that? I only see the Hillary! +12 on their Twitter, with the old poll posted from about a week ago.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/nbc-poll-trump-clinton-hold-sizable-leads-new-york-n554311 (http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/nbc-poll-trump-clinton-hold-sizable-leads-new-york-n554311)

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Title: NY PrimR: Marist College: Trump with Substantial Lead in New York
Post by: Dave Leip on April 11, 2016, 07:58:22 pm
New Poll: New York President by Marist College on 2016-04-10 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620160410008)

Summary:
Trump:
54%
Kasich:
21%
Cruz:
18%
Other:
2%
Undecided:
5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_New%20York_%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_April%202016%20pdf%20(2).pdf)



Title: NY PrimD: Marist College: Clinton with Lead in New York
Post by: Dave Leip on April 11, 2016, 08:00:38 pm
New Poll: New York President by Marist College on 2016-04-10 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620160410008)

Summary:
Clinton:
55%
Sanders:
41%
Other:
1%
Undecided:
3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://The NBC/WSJ/Marist poll was conducted April 6-10 of 557 likely Democratic primary voters (margin of error plus-minus 4.2 percentage points), 259 likely Republican primary voters (plus-minus 6.1 percentage points) and 1,987 registered voters (plus-minus 2.2 percentage points).)



Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Eraserhead on April 11, 2016, 11:28:03 pm
Both races are significantly closer among the "potential electorates":

GOP:

Donald Trump 48%
John Kasich 23%
Ted Cruz 20%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton 51%
Bernie Sanders 44%


Also, if anyone cares:

Which candidate do you think is the real New Yorker:

Clinton 42%
Sanders 39%
Neither 11%
Unsure 8%


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 12, 2016, 01:13:04 am
Both races are significantly closer among the "potential electorates":

GOP:

Donald Trump 48%
John Kasich 23%
Ted Cruz 20%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton 51%
Bernie Sanders 44%


Also, if anyone cares:

Which candidate do you think is the real New Yorker:

Clinton 42%
Sanders 39%
Neither 11%
Unsure 8%


Oh Hillary... you should be way more ahead.


Title: Re: NY- Marist: Clinton +14, TRUMP +33
Post by: Desroko on April 12, 2016, 03:39:03 am
Both races are significantly closer among the "potential electorates":

GOP:

Donald Trump 48%
John Kasich 23%
Ted Cruz 20%

DEM:

Hillary Clinton 51%
Bernie Sanders 44%


Also, if anyone cares:

Which candidate do you think is the real New Yorker:

Clinton 42%
Sanders 39%
Neither 11%
Unsure 8%


Oh Hillary... you should be way more ahead.

Move those goalposts any further and they'll be in the parking lot.