Talk Elections

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Very strong numbers from both Clinton and Trump!

As much as Emerson usually sort of sucks, this seems about right. Looks like Trump will most likely sweep all delegates in CT. (AFAIK, it's WTA by CD.) I wonder how fast the media will switch from "TRUMP IS DOOMED" to "TRUMP IS INVINCIBLE, CRUZ IS DOOMED" after Trump wins in a blowout on both 19 April and 26 April.

Emerson has does a lot of landline & older voter sampling which is why Clinton does awesome in these polls.

If she is +6 in Emerson, I think in truth Sanders may well be tied or ahead. With so much time left, I think Sanders has a big BIG chance of winning CT (& this means probably CT as well).

Great results for Sanders!

If that helps you sleep at night.

It is the truth which most literate people would accept. I am yet to see crosstabs or breakups but Emerson giving +6 to Clinton 14 days before a poll is usually very strong news for Sanders

Clinton will win CT easily. Strong demographics for her, closed primary.

I mean, for all the sh**t it gets, wasn't Emerson the most accurate in Wisconsin? And Lief is right, it's closed, going to be 20%+ non-white, and 65%+ over the age of 45. And Sanders is sh**tting the bed with the gun issue right now. But because it's in New England, it all leads to a comfortable single digit win for Clinton.

It's amazing how, aside from Michigan, the polling and the demographics almost always predict the right winner, and the margin, within a few points. Bernie fans expecting a double digit win in CT are deluded.

Demographics have been even more accurate than polling. Even in Michigan most demographic models were predicting a modest Sanders lead.

Do you have any links to these models? I'd like to see what they were based on because Michigan hadn't had a competitive Democratic primary in a long time.

I think that Benchmark Politics blog had MI at basically a tie, despite the polls showing Clinton +20.

And Nate Silver's model was Sanders +4, IIRC.

Pretty good for Sanders from an Emerson poll. Ads are just starting to run for him in the state.

Wow, Cruz just continues to be stunningly weak.

For the rest of April, Kasich is Ted Cruz's best friend.  But when IN primary comes, it will be back to "a vote for Kasich is a vote for Trump, Hillary, Putin, and Hitler"

ITT: Clinton hacks trash another poster for suggesting this poll might be biased toward Clinton based on flimsy evidence, and then go on to assert that it's biased toward Sanders, based on flimsy evidence.

I think this poll has some major issues. The easiest one I can see is that Sanders leads Clinton 58-39 among voters age 18-24. I can't think of any state that has had that small of a divide (correct me if I'm wrong. Also, while CT is a closed primary, it does have same-day registration. Also this:


Edit: also, this finds a Kasich win in the general of the state, and it has the largest favorabilities for Sanders (+60 to +32 for Clinton).

This happened?

Here's the under 30 vote for states with exit polls (WI was >80% Sanders)
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Closed primary = always bad for Sanders, exaggerating demographic advantage for Clinton, etc.

Well, that's a fact. Except when the primary is full of conservative Dixiecrats who vote Sanders only because they want to stick it to Obama.

Does CT have a winner take all threshold for the at large delegates on the GOP side?

So the evidence is the Southern primaries, and Oklahoma doesn't count? That doesn't really give us much basis to predict the NE contests, and it certainly isn't what I would consider solid evidence for predicting that Clinton will significantly beat her poll numbers.

50% WTA trigger for the At-Large delegates, proportional with 20% threshold otherwise.  CD delegates are WTA (no trigger).

If Trump were to sweep the state, that's a 10-delegate haul over my projections for Trump; that's nothing to sneeze at.

Even if he doesn't, winning all 5 CDs and shutting Cruz out of delegates would still be a good night for him.

Arizona was closed too.

That's true, although Clinton actually slightly underperformed her polls there. Note that I'm not saying that I think Sanders will win CT, I just don't think that the fact that it's a closed primary means that Clinton will overperform her polls. Let's see what happens in NY.

I guess a Sanders win here is possible after all.

But no one said the poll is biased towards Sanders.

Nope. There were no polls before the primary, at least from any reputable firm.

The reason people think a closed primary is better for Clinton is because she pretty consistently dominates with Democrats as opposed to Independents (not counting racists who are still registered Dems but always vote Republican). It's not complicated.

Man if that's Trumps numbers in Connecticut, I can't wait til Rhode Island - he may cross 60% over there!

You Clinton hacks would do anything to get your point of view - Like Clinton lies are a very convenient opinion for you. And that sh**ting the bed is subjective, I think Clinton is sh**ting her bed with stupid opinions of guns.

Anyways, in WI, Emerson had Clinton winning by 6 points according to a thread posted in this forum.

And Sanders won by 13-14% points. Emerson has been biased & Bernie makes up numbers as time goes on in states he heavily competes. If Clinton is +6 now with Emerson, CT would be competitive