Talk Elections

Finally some fresh New York numbers...

Clinton 53 Sanders 40
Trump 55 Kasich 20 Cruz 19

Source:
https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=2343

Wow... NY is remarkably consistent for Clinton and Trump. Of course, a closed electorate that is home state to the two front-runners is probably a great location for that consistent result.

Thank god, I don't know what I would have done if Quinnipiac hadn't shed some light on this race.

Yeah, Sanders needs a great debate if he's to win New York.

I think we can call it now. 15-18% win in NY for Clinton and Trump gets around 85 delegates.

The poll has Trump at 63% downstate and 47% upstate so a clean sweep is in reach, and 85+ is likely.

Clinton should be happy that the last six polls has Sanders struggling to crack 40% (though he does in a few polls) and she is consistently above 50%. I wanted to see polls conducted later in the week for confirmation. The polls are very consistent in '08. If the same is to happen again (I think it closes a bit because of Bernie's enormous cash advantage), she should win by a comfortable margin and net about 25-35 delegates.

It will be really interesting as to how hard Sanders goes at Clinton in the debate Thursday. I personally thought he lost the Sunday night debate in Flint while watching, but maybe the aggressive demeanor coupled with tight messaging played better than I thought.

The truly crazy thing is that if Sanders has any great moments Thursday that it will be difficult to capitalize because he'll be out of pocket for nearly 48 hours due to flying to the Vatican and back. Hard to drive a message for 2 days without a candidate.

Sanders not gonna win NY, Pa or MD after he said Clinton was unqualified
 And he didn't try riding subway.

Yeah, I always thought Sanders would have a hard time even crossing 46-47% in NY.

56-44 or 55-45 looks likely to be the final result.

Plus: PPP will have a NY poll too today.

It seems that this poll should tell Cruz and Kasich that they both focus on Upstate NY without any need to coordinate.  It seems unlikely either will be able to stop Trump from finishing first in all CD.  Both of them should campaign Upstate to push up both their votes to try to get Trump below 50% Upstate CDs.  Other than that there is nothing else they can do to stop Trump from sweeping all the delegates in NY  State.

Polls will probably tighten a bit in the end.

Does anyone find it strange that in the QU breakdown, Cruz is polling 19% in non-suburban NYC while Kasich is only getting 9%?

The impact of debates is overrated, in a 2 candidate field.  Sanders had a YUGE debate performance right after Michigan, and it gave him jack squat on March 15th.

Super Saturdays & stuff hugely favor the established candidate. it is meant to kill the smaller candidate - Limited time & resources mean it gets divided. The smaller candidate needs 7-10 days at a stretch & put time & money to get the message out.

Plus i think the Castro remark hurt Sanders bad with the Latinos in Florida. Also Missouri, IL & NC were decent performances but Ohio with Kasich running probably threw up a weird result - Difficult to judge because of that.

But a good debate performance may not help him win but should help!

Yes, he didn't violate subway electioneering laws.

Tea Party: Trump +26 over Cruz
White Born-again Evangelical: Trump +4 over Cruz
very conservative: Trump +27 over Cruz
somewhat conservative: Trump +37 over Kasich
moderate: Trump +26 over Kasich
men: Trump +36 over Kasich
women: Trump +30 over Cruz
age 18-44: Trump +40 over Kasich
age 45-64: Trump +33 over Kasich
age 65+: Trump +37 over Cruz

Upstate
Trump 47%
Cruz 26%
Kasich 22%

NYC
Trump 63%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 9%

NYC suburbs
Trump 63%
Kasich 25%
Cruz 7%