Talk Elections

Siena NY -

Clinton - 52%
Sanders - 42%

https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_April_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf

Siena is a great pollster, and if you have undecideds break 2/1 to Sanders, you get the 8 point Clinton win I've been predicting for weeks. Looking forward to accepting my accolades on the 19th.

trump right at 50. probably means 90 dels.

GOP:

Trump 50
Kasich 27
Cruz 17

Not that it matters, haha, but if Seina is indeed the NY gold standard, then other polls are overestimating GOP margin.

I wonder if Kasich is having a bit of a moment in New York. He's clearly not going to win it, but with Cruz having pretty much abandoned the state, he could better consolidate the anti-Trump and get a decent showing.

outside of Ohio, kasich regularly craps the bed on election day. I don't think he has overperformed anywhere besides ohio and vermont.

I think Kasich, if he's lucky and if Cruz falls off the map, he could hit 30%.

But I'll actually agree with marty and say that Kasich's ground game stinks because he has no money. He'll probably get whatever he's aggregating at the moment at RCP (maybe 24-25%?)

At 50 he would probably be closer to 80 delegates and very close to the 70s with the slightest slip below 50.

1.8M out of 5.8M Dems actually vote - Young people vote less. There is a debate.

I want to see how everything goes - There may be some switching too. Main issue is turnout - If you can get 120 people to vote from 100 & those are majorly your supporters, then it could be a good result.

I am going for a 7-8-9% loss as well in NY but I won't make a prediction now. There was a huge upset in Michigan - Let's see what can happen & how close we can get!

To be fair, other/undecided has 6%, which it will not get on election day. Trump will get at least a bit of that, pushing him above 50%. And all other polls have him a little higher, so I'd guess about 85-90 delegates for Trump.

I agree and I have him at 85-90. Just saying if 50 is what he got, he would be around 80.

That said the one of the 538 guys has the over/under set at 83.

Siena isn't so much a gold standard as it is the only reliable pollster in New York.

Sanders could be slowly closing the gap, but at this rate, it would mean about a 7 or 8-point loss is probably the best-case scenario for him. It look like that poll which had Trump at 60 might have been junk. Still, Trump is pretty much guaranteed to beat his target here, and if he cleans up on April 26th, he'll be back on target to getting a majority of delegates (of course, May could be rough for him).

I remember Siena being not at all reliable, but I could be wrong on that.

No.

When I say reliable, I more mean that they do polls somewhat regularly in New York.

They did pretty well with house race polling in 2014 despite being called junk by KCDEM at every turn.

If Sanders splits 55-45, he'll severely cut into Hillary's delegate advantage in NY

Losing 55-45 would actually be a terrible result in terms of eventually catching up in pledged. Winning 55-45 would be great however.

A 10 point loss nets Clinton about 30 delegates. Where is he going to make that up. And don't tell me CA.

North Dakota and South Dakota? If he wins the entire delegate slates in shut outs? That doesn't answer how he closes the existing gap though lol

New Poll: New York President by Siena Research Institute on 2016-04-11 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620160411079)

Summary:

Clinton:	52%
Sanders:	42%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.siena.edu/assets/files/news/SNY_April_2016_PRES_Poll_Release_--_FINAL.pdf)