Talk Elections

Discussion of tonight's Primary and results.

I've heard on the news that the Republicans have put so much money into the race that tonight's winner would probably have paid $95 for each of his primary votes. And even after that, he would still have a very slim hope of beating Corzine.

Prediction:

Forrester  46%
Schundler 33%
Others      21%

Any exit poll's or results out yet?

Stop right there. No discussion of that.  :P

I can see Murphy breaking into double digits but not by much. Murphy will receive 12-13% at the most. I'm sticking with my prediction of 7% for Murphy though.

Did anyone on the board vote in the primary today? Who did you vote for?

I believe the only NJ resident on the forum of voting age is South Jersey and he's an Independent.

Prediction:

Forrester: 40%
Schundler: 34%
Murhpy: 9%
All Others: 17%

My prediction from about a week ago

Light Turnout, Close Races Mark New Jersey Primary

Point Pleasant, NJ-WABC, June 7, 2005) — On the list of must-do activities Tuesday, voting in the state's primary election apparently isn't ranking high with New Jerseyans. The pollsters predicted that even the fireworks fired off by the seven Republicans running for governor might not draw people to the polls. By afternoon, it appeared they were right.

 In the bedrock Republican community of Point Pleasant, only a handful of voters had turned out to cast ballots early in the day.

"Turnout is very, very bad," said Bruce MacCormack, a local supervisor with the Ocean County Board of Elections. "It's the slowest I've seen it in years. Primaries - they never were any good for turnout."

Around the state, the few who cast ballots appeared to have property taxes on their mind as a dominant issue.

"You're looking at an 83-year-old man who's been living here for 50-odd years," said Francis DeRosa. "My wife and I are retired, no children, and I'm being killed in terms of sending 70 percent of my taxes to the board of education. When am I going to get a break? I'm going to keep paying until I die."

DeRosa said he voted for former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler, mainly out of resentment toward the millions that businessman Doug Forrester is spending on his own campaign, but also because he likes Schundler's tax-cut plans.

The winner of the GOP primary will face U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine, who faced only token primary opposition, in November.

Sharon Gilmore, a self-described moderate Republican, voted for Forrester. "I don't favor Bret Schundler because he's already lost once," she said, referring to his 2001 loss to Democrat James E. McGreevey. "I think he's too conservative for New Jersey. New Jersey needs more of a moderate."

Five other Republicans were running for the nomination: Bergen County businessman Todd Caliguire, Passaic County Assemblyman Paul DiGaetano, Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, Morris County Freeholder John Murphy and Bergen County businessman Robert Schroeder.

Among Democrats, three men want to be the nominee. Jon Corzine is facing off against James D. Kelly and Francis X. Tenaglio.

There are also primary races for several state assembly seats, and for the mayor's office in Atlantic City and Edison, New Jersey.

Call me crazy, but...

Prediction:

Schundler: 38%
Forrester: 36%
Murhpy: 12%
All Others: 14%

You're crazy.  :P

Here's why...

Forrester up 43% to 31%

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=121c8761-a76e-4615-b396-5a793db2b9d3

Forrester is the only one with a shot of taking down corzine...

that and he isn't as crazy as Bret "I lost this race 4 years ago" Schundler.

Ugh...and Corzine will win...ick.

Forrester has the best shot at beating Corzine and it can happen. Corzine is the obvious favorite starting off but that can change. Forrester can win this thing.

From your post to God's eyes.

If it means anything... NJ Freepers seem to be out in force today for Bret.

Read More Here. (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1418117/posts)

I didn't vote, obviously. You should take note that all of these men really are terrible candidates, and I'm even having second thoughts about Corzine. Imagine a governor like Whitman and Senator Andrews -- that would be ideal!

That's too bad you didn't vote. I forgot NJ allows Independents voting rights in the other party primary.

Forrester isn't a really terrible candidate.

When do the polls close?

Im suprised you aren't supporting Schundler.  He is the conservative in this race (Forrester vs Schundler) isn't he?

Yes but Schundler is a joke.

It means the Freepers have even less of a hold on reality than I thought.

POLLS ARE CLOSED!

I consider all the candidates conservative. How far right/close to the center they are is where it gets tricky. Schundler is the more conservative candidate but Forrester is conservative enough for me and can win.

You can watch live coverage of the results here:
http://www.njn.net/television/webcast/livestreaming.html

Forrester's ahead by 14 with 1% in

2% of precinct reporting and Forrester is up 13:

Forrester 41%
Schundler 28%
Schroeder 11%
Murphy 7%
Lonegan 7%
DiGaetano 5%
Caliguire 2%

Forrester should hope to garner enough support to stay about 40% - that is, to me, a sign that a bloody primary will not affect the general too much.

Where are you getting results?

http://www.wnbc.com/politics/4580221/detail.html

Thanks

http://abclocal.go.com/wpvi/features/election.html#GovernorGOP-Primary

16% reporting


FORRESTER [GOP]  18,677 38% 
 SCHUNDLER [GOP]  15,310 31% 
 LONEGAN [GOP]  4,206 9% 
 SCHROEDER [GOP]  4,114 8% 
 MURPHY [GOP]  3,527 7% 
 DIGAETANO [GOP]  2,246 5% 
 CALIGUIRE [GOP]  939 2%

I just don't warm up to him.

Besides, I'd feel bad voting for Schundler ;) and God knows there's no reason to vote in the Dem primary

24% reporting

FORRESTER [GOP]  25,866 38% 
 SCHUNDLER [GOP]  21,594 31% 
 LONEGAN [GOP]  5,920 9% 
 SCHROEDER [GOP]  5,350 8% 
 MURPHY [GOP]  5,235 8% 
 DIGAETANO [GOP]  3,257 5% 
 CALIGUIRE [GOP]  1,345 2%

NJ Gubernatorial Republican Primary
Forrester   19,413   38%
Schundler   15,751   31%
Lonegan   4,408   9%
Schroeder   4,368   9%
Murphy   4,076   8%
DiGaetano   2,325   5%
Caliguire   988   2%
      
NJ Gubernatorial Democratic Primary      
Corzine   29,706   86%
Kelly   3,017   9%
Tenaglio   1,740   5%

Lonegan and Schroeder are beating Murphy?!?!?!

For now. That won't last long.

Governor GOP - Primary  -- 2,590 of 6,314 precincts reporting (41%)
   FORRESTER [GOP]    42,034   35%   
   SCHUNDLER [GOP]    38,101   32%   
   MURPHY [GOP]    12,883   11%   
   LONEGAN [GOP]    9,630   8%   
   DIGAETANO [GOP]    7,088   6%   
   SCHROEDER [GOP]    6,424   5%   
   CALIGUIRE [GOP]    2,427   2%

3,515 of 6,314 precincts - 56 percent


Doug Forrester, GOP 59,575 - 36 percent
Bret D. Schundler, GOP 51,356 - 31 percent
John Murphy, GOP 18,835 - 11 percent
Steven M. Lonegan, GOP 13,814 - 8 percent
Paul DiGaetano, GOP 9,555 - 6 percent
Robert Schroeder, GOP 8,833 - 5 percent
Todd Caliguire, GOP 3,160 - 2 percent

Governor GOP - Primary  -- 3,707 of 6,314 precincts reporting (59%)
   FORRESTER [GOP]    61,911   36%   
   SCHUNDLER [GOP]    53,645   31%   
   MURPHY [GOP]    20,593   12%   
   LONEGAN [GOP]    14,431   8%   
   DIGAETANO [GOP]    9,795   6%   
   SCHROEDER [GOP]    9,018   5%   
   CALIGUIRE [GOP]    3,416   2%

PoliticsNJ.com (http://PoliticsNJ.com) has called the race for DOUG FORRESTER

68% reporting

FORRESTER [GOP]  72,272 36% 
SCHUNDLER [GOP]  62,655 31% 
MURPHY [GOP]  24,397 12% 
LONEGAN [GOP]  16,799 8% 
SCHROEDER [GOP]  10,779 5% 
DIGAETANO [GOP]  10,956 5% 
CALIGUIRE [GOP]  4,130 2%

I wish Dave would make NJ's county map bigger:

()

Doug Forrester
Bret Schundler
John Murphy

Commentary from Free Republic (http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1418117/posts?q=1&&page=145#145):

-"Yeah. Doug Forrester better write a big fat check out to that guy (Lonegan), because he handed this election to him.

And so did every moron who went out there and threw their vote away."

-"Steve Lonegan single-handedly just shifted the direction of the NJ GOP to the left. So much for our "arch-conservative" out of Bogota. He, and everyone who voted for him, is just as responsible for keeping this party going in the "Democrat Lite" direction as Forrester and his people are.

I know I'll get flamed for that, but it's the truth. Doug Forrester should seriously send Lonegan a thank you letter."

-"Save us Bergen County, your our only hope."

-"I am almost certain that if Forrester wins the social conservatives will stay home in droves."

-"I'm not all that much of a social conservative, and even *I* will stay home if Forrester wins."

-"Still 36%-31% --- 71% in

Damn, Time to update my resume and get out of this state."

Oh noes he's not conservative enough11

What moderate/liberal positions does Forrester have, anyway? Is he pro-choice? Pro gun-control?

Yes but aside from that, Forrester is a rather conservative candidate.

84% reporting

Forrester - 35%
Schundler - 31%

Oh. Well, that's always good to hear. I wish we could get another governor like Whitman, only not quite as corrupt, which would probably be impossible within the state of New Jersey.

Liberal Republicans and fiscally conservative Democrats have proven immensely successful. I hope they are the future of this state and this country.

:(

Sorry, I'm a typical Jersey voter. :P

What I really fear is some ultra-conservative governor coming in and trying to dismantle everything that New Jersey stands for. Same with a liberal in PA - you love your guns! I hope Forrester is not that person.

()

Doug Forrester (14)
Bret Schundler (5)
John Murphy (1)
Too Close to Call (1) (Hunterdon: Forrester 4,661 to Schundler 4,660)

Forrester had a great victory speech.  I think that he has a very good chance of winning.

It really was an excellent address and he can win in November, no doubt about that.

He better do exceptionally well among Independents and Moderate Democrats because social conservatives will be sitting this one out.

Wrong. Some social conservatives will sit it out but it's very, very clear that social conservatives dislike Corzine more than anyone else in this race. Plus, Forrester is not some liberal like Schundler tried to make him out to be. I expect Forrester to take the Independent vote, too.

Forrester did have a good speech while Corzines wasn't so hot.

Corzine has some very interesting plans for the state outlined on his website.

I think he'll be a great governor should he win.

Whats the difference between Corzine and Forrester when it comes to social issues?

It might be the fact that Corzine has compiled one of the most liberal records in the Senate and Forrester is no where near that. The only thing that they're the same on is that they're Pro Choice. NJ conservatives obviously despise Corzine. They might not like Forrester but they'd take him any day of the week over Corzine.

Forrester's speech may have been great, but I think that his chances of beating Jon Corzine are rather slim. Although Forrester can spend plenty of money, he can't match Corzine. Moreover, the fact remains that New Jersey is still, essentially, a blue state.

Not by all that much and Forrester is a strong enough candidate to overcome that.

Forrester won Warren. Also, Somerset is hardly the most conservative. Franklin and Bridgewater almost completely overturn the rest of the county's hard-core conservatism. Sussex and Hunterdon are probably the two most Republican.

Recent Rasmussen Poll:

Corzine 47 Forrester 40

linkie (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2005/New%20Jersey%20Governor.htm)


Closer than I expected...

Come November, a lot of people will be surprised.

Elect Tom Kean in 2006?

That's actually likely to happen especially if Corzine is Governor so don't get down Festoon.

I have one thing realy to say about Corzine and his run for Governor:

"A fool and his money are soon elected."
- Will Rogers

I just had to use that quote. It fits him so well.

Since I don't live in Jersey, I'd rather a Corzine win and a Kean win than a Forrester win and a Corzine win.

I said the same thing before but look at it this way (as NixonNow pointed out)...

Forrester wins the Governorship and Corzine would obviously be weak in 2006. Kean could beat him. I do see where you're coming from though. It would be somewhat of a chance to take but I'm still hoping that Forrester will win.

I have little doubt that Corzine will win the election, but he's probably going to appoint some sh**thead like Menendez and sacrifice his Senate seat. Republicans can still win in New Jersey with relative ease.

Andrews for Senate!

I agree with this statement.