Talk Elections

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu/rutgers-eagleton-2016-presidential-election-Apr2016/

Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%

A single digit race in New Jersey? Hockeydude is liable to have a brain aneurysm.

Clinton apparently gained massively over the course of the polling period:

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A 9 point lead in NJ isn't a gain no matter how you spin it.

She only won it by 10 in 2008, im not shocked if she wins the by the same margin this time. That being said, I think this poll is underestimating her.

I wasn't spinning, just making an observation. Polls are polls are polls.

Yet another pollster that includes independents in a closed primary. She's up 19 among registered Dems.

Not a fully closed primary (indies can declare a preference at the voting booth) but the registration deadline for everyone is 3 weeks before the election.

In 2008, Jersey held their primary on Super Tuesday and only 19% of the electorate was independent. This poll has 32% independents. No way is that going to happen, so this poll is understating Clinton by at least 6-7 points

That's still a lot more open than NY is. Interesting.

NY is historically super-closed in part because the big parties like having smaller parties (WFP, Independence, Conservative) cross-endorse candidates. If NY wasn't closed those parties would be subsumed into the big two. NY is one of the last states with smaller state-centric parties. The WFP grew out of the old Liberal Party which Jacob Javits ran on once after losing his primary to Al D'Amato

About where I think polling would be, but she'll win cleanly in the end.

This is one poll, but if I were a Clinton supporter, I wouldn't be optimistic about this poll. NJ should be as good of a state for Clinton as NY (if not better, due to how urban it is), so a 9-point lead this far out is hardly great for her.

I mean, NJ is urban in a sense. We have no major cities(the cities we do have are small and run down) and plenty of wealthy suburbs. We also have quite a few "sparsely" populated ruby red countys in the northwest and southeast. Sanders, just like Republicans, should have a high floor but a low ceiling. Dont be shocked if the result map looks identical to the 2008 general election.

As a Sanders supporter, 9% with 2 months to go is a very good outcome - I think you look @ this & say there is a damn good chance of this being competitive - I did not think we could win NJ & thought Clinton would get a 20% victory or so but I guess this is pretty good.

Not bad for a Clinton supporter as well - Apart from Maryland, Virgin Islands & Delaware, I think blowouts or big victories would be hard to obtain for Clinton!

Its not competitive because neither candidate can afford to campaign here over California. We have two media markets, NYC and Philadelphia. If Sanders is smart, he ignores NJ and goes all in on a state that isnt fools gold.

I do agree on that but there's around 20 odd days with no polls (maybe only PR) n stuff - And then you have got CA/NJ/MT/ND/SD/NM etc. If I was Sanders I would compete in every state & those 20 odd days give sufficient time - You take 6-7 days & give to NJ/MT/ND/SD etc & keep the rest 13-14 days for CA which is big.

I mean you only need 2-3 days of rallies & some ads n stuff to get a foothold!

We are long past the point where "it might maybe possibly be sorta competitive" is a reasonable standard. Sanders is behind by a mile and needs landslide victories.

Anything is more open than NY. Even the 2 other states where you're sh**t out of luck if you're an independent 31 days before the election.