Talk Elections

Quinnipiac poll of Connecticut, conducted April 12-18:

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/connecticut/release-detail?ReleaseID=2344

Dems

Clinton 51%
Sanders 42%

GOP

Trump 48%
Kasich 28%
Cruz 19%

Ouch! If Sanders-friendly Quinnipiac is showing him losing by almost double digits...

Dems by race:

whites:
Clinton 49%
Sanders 47%

blacks:
Clinton 66%
Sanders 25%

GOP crosstabs:

Tea Party: Trump +38 over Cruz
White Born-again Evangelical: Trump +6 over Cruz
very conservative: Trump +13 over Cruz
somewhat conservative: Trump +33 over Kasich
moderate: Trump +1 over Kasich
men: Trump +24 over Kasich
women: Trump +15 over Kasich
college degree: Trump +3 over Kasich
no college degree: Trump +33 over Kasich
age 18-44: Kasich +7 over Trump
age 45-64: Trump +28 over Kasich
age 65+: Trump +25 over Kasich

LOL

Kasich the CT Youth candidate!

Even if Sanders wins by a short margin in CT He is screwed.

Ouch for Trump.  He needs needs NEEDS 50% here.

April 26 may be tough for Cruz.

I agree, but I think he'll make it after seeing his performance last night in New York.

And good numbers for Clinton here.

I think it's actually possible Bernie could drop out next week, if he gets completely shellacked.

Doubtful when he'll probably win all 4 states in May.

I think Tad Devine (who is a Democrat first, a Bernie loyalist second) will push him to. I don't know if Sanders and Jeff Weaver will listen though.

He said he wouldn't, for what it's worth.

And why would he?  He can still win major concessions from Clinton regarding the platform, people and  the tone of the Democratic campaign.  Last I checked, Clinton did not call to offer him anything.  Why would he give that up for nothing?

The Clinton folks have even stated they are asking or pushing for Sanders to drop out. All they want is the campaign to back off on the more recent hostile tone. Sanders owes it to his supporters to go all the way and I think everyone on the Democratic side recognizes that.

Trump would probably benefit from Sanders staying in the race in Indiana at least, because indies that would've otherwise voted for Sanders would instead opt to vote against Trump in the Republican primary. Maybe. Indiana can be weird.

Looks bad for Trump. He absolutely needs >50%

No he doesn't, it's WTA if he gets 1 vote more than the person in 2nd.

Are you sure?
I believe it is:
-Winner take all by CD
-but the delegates at large, you need to >50% to get all of them.

Only on the CD level.  Statewide, it's proportional if he doesn't hit the 50% mark. 

The question is whether Trump outperforms his polls (as in New York) / receives a bump from his New York victory, or whether Trump performs at around his polling average as usual, which is just shy of 50%.

I'd say it's more likely than not Trump breaks 50% and sweeps the delegates, but it's going to be close.

A related question is whether Cruz breaks 20% in the event Trump falls below 50%.  If he doesn't, he's shut out of delegates entirely.

lol, Sanders indies most likely crossover to vote for their latest favorite in Mr. Trump, himself.

Wow. The boom and the echo are not on the same page.

Sorry, thought this was the Delaware poll. My mistake!

TRUMP may very well outperform this poll (for 50%, he is even within the MoE in this poll) and end up with around 51%, what would be YUUUUGE of course.

He won't drop out. But he very well may dial back the attacks and finish the primary on a positive note.

Also, I now have a feeling he's going to win RI. It's the only open primary on the 26th, so he'll probably pour loads of resources into it to avoid a sweep. Hillary probably won't respond in kind since it's worth so few delegates.

Well obviously he's not going to say anything that would depress his turnout.

I know what he has said, but, I mean... It must be clear to even him that he's sort of created a monster he can't control in his rabid fan base. And if he decides he's doing more harm than good by continuing s campaign that is now so obviously over, he may pull the plug.

The more I think about it, I don't think KY and WV are in any way comfortable for Sanders. KY is closed (remembering that in OK, Clinton still won Democrats by 9-10%), WV is semi-closed. Indiana is open, so he could absolutely win there and he'll win OR but since it's closed, the margin might be a little underwhelming and the delegate split not all that great.

Kentucky is the state I am the least certain about for Sanders, you are correct that it is a closed primary and there is obviously a decent % of African Americans, especially in Louisville. West Virginia could also be close. I think how Western PA votes could be a decent indicator for how both states vote. Indiana will be interesting. Clinton should do good in Lake County and Marion County, but I don't know any other areas in the state that would automatically go for her and I imagine the rest of the state would look like downstate Illinois. Oregon is closed, but it is also vote by mail just like the general election, so I imagine turnout should be good.

WV should actually be very interesting... I kind of expect Sanders to win it, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Hillary win here. If she matches her performance with whites from OH, then she'll win.

Undecideds haven't been collapsed yet. Trump would get over 50% on that alone more likely than not.

Gut feeling that Ohio is going to look like an anomaly compared to the rest of the Midwest/Appalachia due the Kasich factor.



Those voters could have been helpful for Sanders in at least making the race closer and more representative of trends we have seen in other states.