|
Title: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Mr. Morden on April 21, 2016, 09:16:50 AM Franklin & Marshall poll of Pennsylvania, conducted April 11-18:
http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/746493212120738645-f-m-poll-release-april-2016.pdf Dems Clinton 58% Sanders 31% GOP Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on April 21, 2016, 09:17:26 AM lol
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Lief 🗽 on April 21, 2016, 09:58:00 AM WOW! Beautiful!
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Xing on April 21, 2016, 10:07:47 AM 11% under 35? Junk.
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Holmes on April 21, 2016, 10:54:28 AM I feel like it'll be a bit closer on the Democratic side and a bit wider on the Republican side
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Shadows on April 21, 2016, 11:33:37 AM Over-estimates Sanders, Hilldawg will get 70-75% of the votes. Hilldawg sweep!
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Holmes on April 21, 2016, 11:33:59 AM Over-estimates Sanders, Hilldawg will get 70-75% of the votes. Hilldawg sweep! True that. Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: RJEvans on April 21, 2016, 12:00:53 PM The sample is WAY too old. 44% over 65 for the Dem side. 11% under 34. I imagine the polls showing this 10-15 points is right.
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on April 21, 2016, 12:15:12 PM Wow, they found a way to go to April 81st!!
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 21, 2016, 12:19:24 PM FWIW, in 2008 the Dem electorate was 12% 18-29 and 22% 65+.
Also it had 14% independents and 3% Republicans. Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Crumpets on April 21, 2016, 12:47:55 PM He's dead Jim!
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: IceSpear on April 21, 2016, 01:09:54 PM Well, looks like F&M's reputation is about to take a hit.
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Ebsy on April 21, 2016, 01:15:26 PM I expect it to be closer than this.
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: dspNY on April 21, 2016, 01:28:16 PM This lead is probably too big. I think Monmouth is on the money or very close to it
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: A Perez on April 21, 2016, 01:49:19 PM Franklin & Marshall poll of Pennsylvania, conducted April 11-81: Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: dspNY on April 21, 2016, 04:51:29 PM The sample is WAY too old. 44% over 65 for the Dem side. 11% under 34. I imagine the polls showing this 10-15 points is right. Pennsylvania's electorate has always skewed older. This particular poll might skew that a bit more, but a 10 point race would be 55% - 45% and a 15 point race would be 57% - 42%. Hillary getting 58% is optimistic, but entirely within reach. 2008 Democratic primary age breakdowns: 12% under 30 19% 30-44 37% 45-59 33% 60+ A plurality of that electorate voted for Bill twice and Hillary in 2008. I think a 27 point win is incredibly unrealistic but 12-15 points is certainly in the ballpark Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Mr. Morden on April 22, 2016, 05:05:00 AM Philadelphia: Trump +10 over Cruz
Northeast: Trump +26 over Cruz Allegheny: Kasich +6 over Trump Southwest: Cruz/Trump tie Northwest: Trump +26 over Cruz Central: Trump +6 over Cruz Southeast: Kasich +5 over Trump fav/unfav % among their own party: Clinton 69/25% for +44% Sanders 66/24% for +42% Kasich 55/25% for +30% Trump 46/44% for +2% Cruz 45/44% for +1% Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Vosem on April 22, 2016, 05:08:28 AM I would be shocked if the Southwest is a Cruz/trump tie. That implies Cruz has a shot in West Virginia. Most of the rest of it looks legit.
Title: Re: PA-Franklin&Marshall:D: Clinton 58% Sanders 31%;R: Trump 40% Cruz 26% Kasich 24% Post by: Craziaskowboi on April 22, 2016, 06:51:39 PM Philadelphia: Trump +10 over Cruz Northeast: Trump +26 over Cruz Allegheny: Kasich +6 over Trump Southwest: Cruz/Trump tie Northwest: Trump +26 over Cruz Central: Trump +6 over Cruz Southeast: Kasich +5 over Trump fav/unfav % among their own party: Clinton 69/25% for +44% Sanders 66/24% for +42% Kasich 55/25% for +30% Trump 46/44% for +2% Cruz 45/44% for +1% Wow, it's almost as if Allegheny County is nothing like the rest of southwestern Pennsylvania politically. Who knew? |