Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls => Topic started by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on April 22, 2016, 05:04:05 pm



Title: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on April 22, 2016, 05:04:05 pm
Just saw this on TV- details should be coming


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: MT Treasurer on April 22, 2016, 05:22:56 pm
Full results:

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/22/fox-news-poll-trump-tops-cruz-by-eight-points-in-indiana.html

Clinton 46, Sanders 42

Cruz is collapsing.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Holmes on April 22, 2016, 05:25:45 pm
Which agrees with the Trump +6 poll that was just released too.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Xing on April 22, 2016, 05:27:57 pm

I knew that it would look this way after Trump's win in NY, and it'll probably look even worse for him after 4/26. If Cruz pulls off a win in Indiana though, I'd bet quite a bit that people will be back to saying that Trump is finished, which is what people were saying less than a week ago. Something tells me we won't know for sure until at least June 7th, if not the convention.

Anyway, this poll is pretty bad for Cruz. It looks like Sanders could pull off a win in Indiana, but of course it won't be a big enough win to change anything.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: dspNY on April 22, 2016, 05:56:26 pm
Unlike California, I think FOX's numbers on both sides are right or close. The Dem race is definitely close but we have to see what happens on 4/26 and we'll need another poll to see whether support deflates for Sanders if 4/26 goes badly.

Cruz is pretty much forced into a last stand here and it is a must win for him


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: President Johnson on April 22, 2016, 05:58:32 pm
Actually time to drop out for Cruz and Kasich, while the latter should join the TRUMP-train and become the Donald's running mate.


Title: IN PrimR: Fox News: Trump leads by eight
Post by: Dr. RI on April 22, 2016, 05:59:05 pm
New Poll: Indiana President by Fox News on 2016-04-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1820160421039)

Summary:
Trump:
41%
Cruz:
33%
Kasich:
16%
Other:
3%
Undecided:
7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/04/22/fox-news-poll-indiana-democratic-presidential-primary/)



Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: dspNY on April 22, 2016, 06:10:46 pm
One more point for the GOP side...

If #NeverTrump really wants to succeed, Kasich is going to have to either drop out or tell his voters to vote for Cruz because he is useless after 4/26


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Lief 🐋 on April 22, 2016, 06:51:48 pm
Lyin' Ted is finished. Shouldn't have stolen Colorado, no one wants a thief as their president!


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on April 22, 2016, 07:02:46 pm
One more point for the GOP side...

If #NeverTrump really wants to succeed, Kasich is going to have to either drop out or tell his voters to vote for Cruz because he is useless after 4/26

Kasich is useful in parts of CA, and the WA GOP isn't exactly uber-conservative either.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Xing on April 22, 2016, 07:07:07 pm
One more point for the GOP side...

If #NeverTrump really wants to succeed, Kasich is going to have to either drop out or tell his voters to vote for Cruz because he is useless after 4/26

Kasich is useful in parts of CA, and the WA GOP isn't exactly uber-conservative either.

The WA GOP is pretty conservative, but Kasich would definitely help Cruz stop Trump from making it close, since Kasich/Trump might split the relatively moderate voters in King county and the suburbs. I think Cruz would still win without Kasich, but it wouldn't be as much of a given.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 22, 2016, 07:10:04 pm
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the evil one by trying.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Gass3268 on April 22, 2016, 07:14:47 pm
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the evil one by trying.

Cruz should have done the same thing in the Northeast.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Ebsy on April 22, 2016, 07:21:34 pm
Democratic crosstabs have Clinton doing better with white voters than nonwhite voters. Considering that almost all of Indiana's nonwhite voters are black (17% of the 2008 electorate), I find this extremely hard to believe.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: RR1997 on April 22, 2016, 07:34:16 pm
Everyone else on Atlas was predicting a Cruz victory, while I was predicting a huge Trump victory. It seems like I'm correct.

I will now accept my accolades.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: dspNY on April 22, 2016, 08:12:28 pm
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the evil one by trying.

Cruz should have done the same thing in the Northeast.

#NeverTrump's campaign tactics have been baffling to say the least. You're exactly right on that one


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: pbrower2a on April 22, 2016, 08:53:06 pm
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the evil one by trying.

But that will be impossible for the Governor of a neighboring state.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Vosem on April 22, 2016, 08:53:10 pm
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/03/23/fox-news-poll-national-general-election-32316/

Somethin' doesn't add up in Ailes-town

Everyone else on Atlas was predicting a Cruz victory, while I was predicting a huge victory. It seems like I'm correct.

Yes, definitely, double-digit undecideds, high Kasich performance, and single-digit margin add up to a trump victory here, and a poll from a pollster that routinely has double-digit swings for no reason confirms it.


I like this. Firefighters are already on the scene and the girl is appropriately calm.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Fargobison on April 22, 2016, 09:01:36 pm
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the evil one by trying.

But that will be impossible for the Governor of a neighboring state.

He is going to have to unless his dream is being Trump's VP.



Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on April 22, 2016, 09:04:35 pm
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the evil one by trying.

But that will be impossible for the Governor of a neighboring state.

He is going to have to unless his dream is being Trump's VP.



That is exactly his dream, you tool. The conservative movement has completely disrespected him. He will team up with a moderate who he is good friends with.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Fargobison on April 22, 2016, 09:21:39 pm
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the evil one by trying.

But that will be impossible for the Governor of a neighboring state.

He is going to have to unless his dream is being Trump's VP.



That is exactly his dream, you tool. The conservative movement has completely disrespected him. He will team up with a moderate who he is good friends with.

If he did that, then I would say the conservative movement was right about him all along.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: NHI on April 22, 2016, 09:25:52 pm
Actually time to drop out for Cruz and Kasich, while the latter should join the TRUMP-train and become the Donald's running mate.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Vosem on April 22, 2016, 09:46:24 pm
Kasich clearly despises trump and Cruz utterly; but he's polling roughly as expected for a secondary anti-trump candidate in a Midwestern state, and he'll see a small collapse on Election Day just like Cruz saw in Ohio and Kasich in Wisconsin.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: whitesox130 on April 22, 2016, 09:50:35 pm
Please, God, let this be wrong.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: RR1997 on April 23, 2016, 07:18:41 am
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/03/23/fox-news-poll-national-general-election-32316/

Somethin' doesn't add up in Ailes-town

Everyone else on Atlas was predicting a Cruz victory, while I was predicting a huge Trump victory. It seems like I'm correct.

Yes, definitely, double-digit undecideds, high Kasich performance, and single-digit margin add up to a trump victory here, and a poll from a pollster that routinely has double-digit swings for no reason confirms it.


I like this. Firefighters are already on the scene and the girl is appropriately calm.

I just want to fix a little typo I made (I forgot to mention Trump by name)


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: TJ in Oregon on April 23, 2016, 09:18:59 am
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the evil one by trying.

Cruz should have done the same thing in the Northeast.

No he shouldn't have because the delegate allocation rules are different most of the Northeast is WTA thresholds rather than WTA. So Cruz pulling out would give Trump more delegates, except for Maryland of course where Cruz shouldn't campaign.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 23, 2016, 10:59:03 am

Or maybe, we just assumed too quickly that Indiana would be Cruz territory. I have been in the minority in the past week or so saying that Cruz might not win Indiana, it's not Wisconsin. The Indianapolis area doesn't appear to be as anti-Trump as the Milwaukee area, and it doesn't influence the entire state as much as the latter. If you look at downstate Illinois, every county bordering Indiana went to Trump with at least 40%, and downstate in general was very pro-Trump. Central Illinois was much more favorable to Cruz, and I suspect many mid-sized cities in Indiana will vote like that (along with the Indianapolis suburbs), but Trump will do very well in all the rural areas, probably NW Indiana too.

I'm surprised that Kasich is doing so poorly for a state bordering Ohio. He's a joke at this point. Looks like Indiana for the Democrats will be very similar to Illinois and Missouri.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Tender Branson on April 23, 2016, 11:17:57 am
No general election #s ?


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Ljube on April 23, 2016, 09:44:59 pm
Actually time to drop out for Cruz and Kasich, while the latter should join the TRUMP-train and become the Donald's running mate.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on April 23, 2016, 11:38:39 pm
Yeah, if TRUMP wins Indiana it's actually not difficult to get him to 1237 (assuming some of the PA unbounds vote for him), especially if you give him Montana too.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: The love that set me free on April 24, 2016, 12:45:10 am
I don't know where the idea that Indiana would vote like Wisconsin came from. They are not similar states.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Badger on April 25, 2016, 07:32:10 am
Kasich needs to ignore Indiana. He has no chance of winning and can only aid the more evil one by trying.

Corrected


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Seriously? on April 25, 2016, 12:59:27 pm
I don't know where the idea that Indiana would vote like Wisconsin came from. They are not similar states.
Wishful thinking. All the states bordering IN went firmly Trump, except for Ohio, which went Kasich because he's their governor.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: Vosem on April 25, 2016, 01:04:27 pm
I don't know where the idea that Indiana would vote like Wisconsin came from. They are not similar states.
Wishful thinking. All the states bordering IN went firmly Trump, except for Ohio, which went Kasich because he's their governor.

...they didn't. Excluding KY, which is a caucus, Ohio voted 36% trump, Michigan voted 36% trump, and Illinois voted 38% trump. The results in those three states were meaningfully the same in the popular vote (there was a large difference in delegate results due to the different distributions of anti-trumps and different rules in all three states). There's no reason to think trump will do more than a few points better than that, and it was difficult to see that being enough to overcome Cruz even before Kasich stopped campaigning here.

Indiana is done. If trump is serious about winning this, he can do a few tours in the proportional states and then get to work on California tomorrow -- he still has a shot there.


Title: Re: FOX News- IN: Trump 41, Cruz 33, Clinton +4
Post by: NHI on April 26, 2016, 07:14:33 pm

I knew that it would look this way after Trump's win in NY, and it'll probably look even worse for him after 4/26. If Cruz pulls off a win in Indiana though, I'd bet quite a bit that people will be back to saying that Trump is finished, which is what people were saying less than a week ago. Something tells me we won't know for sure until at least June 7th, if not the convention.

Anyway, this poll is pretty bad for Cruz. It looks like Sanders could pull off a win in Indiana, but of course it won't be a big enough win to change anything.