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Title: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on April 22, 2016, 05:04:09 PM http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/22/fox-news-poll-trump-leads-in-california-clinton-sanders-in-close-race.html
Tight race on the DEM side, Trump has large lead on the GOP side. DEM: Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 GOP: Trump - 49 Cruz - 22 Kasich - 20 Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on April 22, 2016, 05:05:19 PM Trump seems to be surging right now. Whether or not it is permanent or just a result of NY remains to be seen.
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Ronnie on April 22, 2016, 05:10:07 PM ...Holy crap
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Xing on April 22, 2016, 05:11:28 PM I'm not buying this yet. I can buy Trump winning, but by that much!? Also, I doubt the Democratic race is that close.
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Volrath50 on April 22, 2016, 05:18:30 PM RIP in peace #nevertrump
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Holmes on April 22, 2016, 05:24:48 PM The last three CA polls have been Trump +18 to now +27. It's looking clear he's well ahead here.
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 22, 2016, 05:42:05 PM Not sure I buy that Sanders is more competitive in California than Indiana.
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Derpist on April 22, 2016, 05:42:49 PM Not sure I buy that Sanders is more competitive in California than Indiana. Asian voters. California was always going to be way better for Sanders than people thought. Time to unite behind Trump, Republicans! Yup. :) Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: President Johnson on April 22, 2016, 05:46:45 PM YUUUUGE! Hope TRUMP cracks 50% in my favorite state. It's time for Rafael and Kasich to drop out.
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: DrScholl on April 22, 2016, 05:48:41 PM California has a lot of anti-immigration, far-right Republicans and Trump speaks to them.
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: dspNY on April 22, 2016, 05:51:50 PM Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side.
GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 22, 2016, 05:56:18 PM Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side. GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him It's one part of the poll. Every other cross tab looks pretty reasonable. Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: dspNY on April 22, 2016, 06:00:15 PM Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side. GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him It's one part of the poll. Every other cross tab looks pretty reasonable. Changing that crosstab to what every other pollster found in California (Clinton +20 among Hispanics, especially in the Southwest), and you get Clinton with an 8-10 point lead which is in line with all other polling. Clinton did not commit a gaffe that would harm her with Southwest Hispanics that would cause those numbers to decline from +20 to -19 Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 22, 2016, 06:04:17 PM Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side. GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him It's one part of the poll. Every other cross tab looks pretty reasonable. Changing that crosstab to what every other pollster found in California (Clinton +20 among Hispanics, especially in the Southwest), and you get Clinton with an 8-10 point lead which is in line with all other polling. Clinton did not commit a gaffe that would harm her with Southwest Hispanics that would cause those numbers to decline from +20 to -19 Sanders does perform better among Hispanics but no one will know the exact number until election day. With the primary more than a month a way I could see Sanders pulling out a win, but it needs to be big. Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on April 22, 2016, 06:10:59 PM Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side. GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him BUT BERNIE WON HISPANICS IN NEVADA!!! (except that he didn't) Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Alcon on April 22, 2016, 06:11:37 PM Not a chance Sanders leads by 19 among Hispanics, especially when neighboring Arizona and its Hispanic voters went heavily for Clinton. Throw it in the trash, at least on the Dem side. GOP voters might be fed up with Cruz trying to game things behind closed doors so there is a backlash against him 623 likely Democratic voters, so I imagine the MoE on the Hispanic subsample is pretty big. Even if it's not, I always caution about "throwing out" results like this -- we should be selective about throwing out outliers. Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 22, 2016, 06:14:13 PM Also wow Trump is dominating!! Even if you add Cruz and Kasich with every demographic (except white women) Trump still wins.
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Ebsy on April 22, 2016, 07:16:36 PM The crosstabs for the Democrats are hilarious to say the least.
Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Vosem on April 22, 2016, 08:55:05 PM Vosem be like: "Ok, if we take literally every Cruz and Kasich voter and add them together, then add 8% to that total, then Cruz is going to win this thing!" Except when you look at Midwestern or Western polling where there is a single clear anti-trump, the pattern is that basically all undecideds plus a chunk of the support for the other anti-trump go to the single clear anti-trump. This poll is too flawed to conduct any sort of analysis for other reasons, but it wouldn't be wrong since that's, you know, how voters behave. Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: IceSpear on April 22, 2016, 10:04:36 PM This poll looks quite junky. Trump may be up big, but there's no way he's up this big. Also, we've learned quite clearly that pollsters are godawful at polling minorities. Like, polling caucuses level bad. Some examples:
A Fox poll had Hillary winning blacks in South Carolina by 42 points. She won them by 72 points. A PPP poll had Hillary losing blacks in Wisconsin by 11 points. She won them by 38 points. A Marist poll had Hillary winning Hispanics in Florida by 5 points. She won them by 36 points. A Marist poll had Hillary losing Hispanics by 34 points in Illinois. She lost them by 1 point. A Baruch College poll had Hillary losing Hispanics in New York by 17 points. She won them by 28 points. And there's probably more where that came from, but I'm too lazy to check. These guys hand out 30-50 point misses like they're candy. Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Vosem on April 22, 2016, 10:34:39 PM Vosem be like: "Ok, if we take literally every Cruz and Kasich voter and add them together, then add 8% to that total, then Cruz is going to win this thing!" Except when you look at Midwestern or Western polling where there is a single clear anti-trump, the pattern is that basically all undecideds plus a chunk of the support for the other anti-trump go to the single clear anti-trump. This poll is too flawed to conduct any sort of analysis for other reasons, but it wouldn't be wrong since that's, you know, how voters behave. Huh Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: dspNY on April 22, 2016, 11:04:33 PM This poll looks quite junky. Trump may be up big, but there's no way he's up this big. Also, we've learned quite clearly that pollsters are godawful at polling minorities. Like, polling caucuses level bad. Some examples: A Fox poll had Hillary winning blacks in South Carolina by 42 points. She won them by 72 points. A PPP poll had Hillary losing blacks in Wisconsin by 11 points. She won them by 38 points. A Marist poll had Hillary winning Hispanics in Florida by 5 points. She won them by 36 points. A Marist poll had Hillary losing Hispanics by 34 points in Illinois. She lost them by 1 point. A Baruch College poll had Hillary losing Hispanics in New York by 17 points. She won them by 28 points. And there's probably more where that came from, but I'm too lazy to check. These guys hand out 30-50 point misses like they're candy. There could be a legit reason for this...maybe they are missing Spanish-first speakers who tend to be older and would be more likely Hillary supporters. There has been a generational split in many Hispanic communities where younger Hispanics, who are also more likely to be fully bilingual, are more likely to support Sanders while their parents, many of whom either speak Spanish first or only Spanish, would go to Clinton Additionally, Clinton has demonstrated far superior outreach to Spanish-dominant and Spanish-only speakers Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: IceSpear on April 22, 2016, 11:38:20 PM This poll looks quite junky. Trump may be up big, but there's no way he's up this big. Also, we've learned quite clearly that pollsters are godawful at polling minorities. Like, polling caucuses level bad. Some examples: A Fox poll had Hillary winning blacks in South Carolina by 42 points. She won them by 72 points. A PPP poll had Hillary losing blacks in Wisconsin by 11 points. She won them by 38 points. A Marist poll had Hillary winning Hispanics in Florida by 5 points. She won them by 36 points. A Marist poll had Hillary losing Hispanics by 34 points in Illinois. She lost them by 1 point. A Baruch College poll had Hillary losing Hispanics in New York by 17 points. She won them by 28 points. And there's probably more where that came from, but I'm too lazy to check. These guys hand out 30-50 point misses like they're candy. There could be a legit reason for this...maybe they are missing Spanish-first speakers who tend to be older and would be more likely Hillary supporters. There has been a generational split in many Hispanic communities where younger Hispanics, who are also more likely to be fully bilingual, are more likely to support Sanders while their parents, many of whom either speak Spanish first or only Spanish, would go to Clinton Additionally, Clinton has demonstrated far superior outreach to Spanish-dominant and Spanish-only speakers That woud make sense for Hispanics, but what about blacks? Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: RFayette on April 23, 2016, 05:49:11 PM Vosem be like: "Ok, if we take literally every Cruz and Kasich voter and add them together, then add 8% to that total, then Cruz is going to win this thing!" Except when you look at Midwestern or Western polling where there is a single clear anti-trump, the pattern is that basically all undecideds plus a chunk of the support for the other anti-trump go to the single clear anti-trump. This poll is too flawed to conduct any sort of analysis for other reasons, but it wouldn't be wrong since that's, you know, how voters behave. Huh I'm sick of this election. Just give Clinton a victory and we'll try again in 4 years. Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Ljube on April 23, 2016, 09:42:33 PM Time to unite behind Trump, Republicans! Title: Re: CA - FOX: Trump - 49 Cruz -22 Kasich-20 Clinton - 48 Sanders - 46 Post by: Torie on April 24, 2016, 07:19:44 AM It's all going to sh*t.
Title: CA PrimR: Fox News: Trump with Large Lead in California Post by: ElectionAtlas on April 24, 2016, 09:49:41 PM New Poll: California President by Fox News on 2016-04-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=620160421039)
Summary:
Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/04/22/fox-news-poll-california-presidential-primaries/) Title: CA PrimD: Fox News: Clinton and Sanders Close in California Post by: ElectionAtlas on April 24, 2016, 09:49:42 PM New Poll: California President by Fox News on 2016-04-21 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=620160421039)
Summary:
Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/04/22/fox-news-poll-california-presidential-primaries/) |