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Title: USAT/Suffolk National Poll: Clinton up 5, Trump up 16 Post by: The Other Castro on April 25, 2016, 02:06:05 PM Clinton - 50%
Sanders - 45% Trump - 45% Cruz - 29% Kasich - 17% http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/4_25_2016_marginals.pdf Title: Re: USAT/Suffolk National Poll: Clinton up 5, Trump up 16 Post by: Mr. Morden on April 25, 2016, 09:19:13 PM Asked of the Republican primary voters:
“There has been discussion about the role and impact of delegates in the Republican nominaton process. If a candidate arrives at the national convention with a clear lead in delegates, but doesn’t have a majority, should he be chosen as the nominee, or should that be left up to the delegates at the convention?” The candidate with a clear lead—even if not a majority—should be chosen 47% It should be left up to the delegates 41% undecided 13% Title: Re: USAT/Suffolk National Poll: Clinton up 5, Trump up 16 Post by: Ronnie on April 25, 2016, 09:33:16 PM Asked of the Republican primary voters: “There has been discussion about the role and impact of delegates in the Republican nominaton process. If a candidate arrives at the national convention with a clear lead in delegates, but doesn’t have a majority, should he be chosen as the nominee, or should that be left up to the delegates at the convention?” The candidate with a clear lead—even if not a majority—should be chosen 47% It should be left up to the delegates 41% undecided 13% Whoa, that's a really weak number for Trump. Wasn't it around 60% before? Looks like he might be losing the PR campaign in that regard. Title: Re: USAT/Suffolk National Poll: Clinton up 5, Trump up 16 Post by: Mr. Morden on April 25, 2016, 09:44:43 PM Asked of the Republican primary voters: “There has been discussion about the role and impact of delegates in the Republican nominaton process. If a candidate arrives at the national convention with a clear lead in delegates, but doesn’t have a majority, should he be chosen as the nominee, or should that be left up to the delegates at the convention?” The candidate with a clear lead—even if not a majority—should be chosen 47% It should be left up to the delegates 41% undecided 13% Whoa, that's a really weak number for Trump. Wasn't it around 60% before? Looks like he might be losing the PR campaign in that regard. How people answer that question is highly dependent on the question wording, as we've seen in similar polls. When you phrase the question so that it's about the delegates deliberating, people are more open to them picking someone who isn't the plurality vote winner. EDIT: I talked about this phenomenon with respect to both the YouGov and NBC polling on this last week: Interesting CA crosstab: Quote As you may know, the Republican party requires a nominee to get 1,237 delegates inthe primaries for the nomination. If Donald Trump does not get 1,237 but Trump still has moredelegates than Ted Cruz, and more delegates than John Kasich, what do you feel Republicans should do at the convention this summer? 44% Select Trump, because he’ll still have more delegates than any other candidate 50% Let Trump, Cruz and Kasich fight for delegate support at the convention to decide the winner 6% Turn to someone new who isn’t running right now CA is one of the few states where the majority of Republican primary voters would support a contested convention. I just think the results on that issue are highly dependent on the question wording. “Fight for delegates to decide the winner” sounds better than other ways you could phrase it. Note that in the new NBC national poll, there’s a split on how people respond to the contested convention scenario depending on how you word the question: http://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-voters-want-say-in-choosing-nominee-poll-finds-1460898000 62% say that the person with the most votes in the primaries should be the nominee, yet if you ask how people would feel about a candidate winning the nomination by “convincing delegates supporting other candidates” to back them, a majority say that would be acceptable. |