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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Fargobison on April 25, 2016, 02:44:20 pm



Title: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Fargobison on April 25, 2016, 02:44:20 pm
Clinton (D) 42%
Trump (R) 35%

Sanders (D) 54%
Trump (R) 33%

Clinton (D) 38%
Cruz (R) 43%

Sanders (D) 48%
Cruz (R) 34%

http://www.brcpolls.com/16/RMP%202016-II-04.pdf


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: standwrand on April 25, 2016, 02:53:47 pm
but the border states love Trump!


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: ExtremeConservative on April 25, 2016, 02:56:28 pm
I'm starting to believe that Sanders would kill the Republican nominee.  Fortunately, that matchup won't happen!!  But, a lot of these numbers right now are the product of supporters of one candidate saying that they wouldn't vote for the other.  By the end of the day, Cruz and Trump supporters will both support the nominee, and the map will look normal again!


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Crumpets on April 25, 2016, 02:56:56 pm
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Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: IceSpear on April 25, 2016, 03:09:15 pm
This isn't a great pollster. That said, the fact that Cruz is up 5 means it can't be too off. Looks like AZ really is a battleground, at least for the moment.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 25, 2016, 03:18:05 pm
Those Sanders numbers are laughable.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: pbrower2a on April 25, 2016, 03:46:11 pm
Just look at the recent polls of Utah. The difference between the electorates of Arizona and New Mexico are

(1) that New Mexico is more Hispanic, and
(2) Arizona has a huge Mormon population.

A key to conservative successes in Arizona is the Mormon vote. Mormons are typically the most enthusiastic supporters of conservative policies and candidates in the American West. But know well: this time Donald Trump has offended Mormon sensibilities through his prior business dealings. Gambling and booze, both distinctly non-Mormon. Ted Cruz does not do that, and he would get about as much support from Mormons as someone Republican neither Mormon nor from Arizona -- like George W. Bush. (Mitt Romney is a Mormon and John McCain is a Senator from Arizona. Cut Mormon support for a conservative politician by a quarter to a third, and the state suddenly becomes more amenable to a liberal.

With the Hispanic population, which in Arizona is heavily Mexican-American  and the second-largest group of Hispanics are people half Mexican and half Anglo, Donald Trump's call for mass deportation will hit hostile ears. Citizen or not, Mexican-Americans often recognize that someone that they know fairly well is an illegal alien. That could be their daughter's boyfriend.

There never has been much enmity between white Anglo populations and Mexican-Americans. The proposed deportations involve breaking up families, clearly an offense to many conservatives.

Donald Trump will cut the enthusiasm of Mormon conservatives and will get Mexican-Americans more active in the political process. Such is a double-whammy to the GOP in Arizona. Donald Trump could get Arizona to vote almost like New Mexico, which is now almost as Democratic as Massachusetts.

Note: Cruz does OK in Arizona.     



Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: pbrower2a on April 25, 2016, 03:53:26 pm
I don't write off Kasich yet. I have use for his polling numbers.


Senator Bernie Sanders beats all of the GOP contenders by: 54% to 33%
over Trump, 48 % to 34% over Cruz and by 47% to 33% over Kasich.
Democrat Hillary Clinton also bests Trump by a narrower 42% to 35% but then loses in Arizona to Ted Cruz by 43% to 38% and trails John Kasich by 44% to 32%


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on April 25, 2016, 04:22:40 pm
Great news.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: pbrower2a on April 25, 2016, 05:25:57 pm
Note that in this poll, Kasich is doing insignificantly better than Cruz.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: IA less likely to flip than OH/TX/FL/GA/NC/AZ on April 25, 2016, 05:29:24 pm
Note that in this poll, Kasich is doing insignificantly better than Cruz.

Kasich 44
Clinton 32

Cruz 43
Clinton 38

So a 12-point margin is not significantly better than a 5-point margin? lol


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on April 25, 2016, 05:30:10 pm
Note that in this poll, Kasich is doing insignificantly better than Cruz.

Kasich 44
Clinton 32

Cruz 43
Clinton 38

So a 12-point margin is not significantly better than a 5-point margin? lol

He was right against Bernie, though.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Arch on April 25, 2016, 05:44:10 pm
Trump is like the coming of Cthulhu for the GOP--a coming they propelled mind you. Good riddance.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Comrade Funk on April 25, 2016, 05:47:07 pm
Those Sanders numbers are laughable.
Yet every GE poll shows him trouncing them. Irrelevant considering he's not the nominee, but there's only so many times when a poll can be "laughable"


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Reginald on April 25, 2016, 06:16:46 pm
Partisan breakdowns seem off here; GOP candidates not breaking 60 against Sanders among registered Rs? But I emphasize "seem" here because this pollster isn't giving us all the numbers, just the percents selecting the Republican candidates. The percent undecided is essentially a mystery, except for the Cruz/Sanders scenario (definitely the match-up that needed all the data!)

Not too confident in this poll or pollster.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: pbrower2a on April 25, 2016, 07:42:29 pm
Note that in this poll, Kasich is doing insignificantly better than Cruz.

Kasich 44
Clinton 32

Cruz 43
Clinton 38

So a 12-point margin is not significantly better than a 5-point margin? lol

He was right against Bernie, though.

I was looking at the "43" and "44", which I consider more significant. It is far easier to catch up to "44" (which is roughly the Democratic floor in Arizona) than to the "50" as she needs for winning the state.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: RFayette on April 25, 2016, 07:48:05 pm
Yep, time to nuke Trump at convention.  We'll see if he can be kept under 1237.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic on April 26, 2016, 12:17:33 am
I don't see AZ going for Clinton in November, but anything's possible. If it's at all close, though, Trump's toast.


Title: AZ: Rocky Mountain: Clinton up 7 in Arizona
Post by: IceSpear on April 26, 2016, 12:42:09 am
New Poll: Arizona President by Rocky Mountain on 2016-04-11 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=420160411018)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 35%, U: 23%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.brcpolls.com/16/RMP%202016-II-04.pdf)


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: pbrower2a on April 26, 2016, 12:07:08 pm
I don't see AZ going for Clinton in November, but anything's possible. If it's at all close, though, Trump's toast.

Something I may have said in 2008 around this time:

I don't see VA going for Obama in November, but anything's possible. If it's at all close, though, McCain is toast.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on April 26, 2016, 02:53:07 pm
The Dems have a lot of states in play, but just like in 2012, 271 gives Dems the Senate. After that is wave insurance and winning OH/Va after CO & Iowa


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: CocaineMitch'sCartel on April 26, 2016, 03:05:27 pm
Let's not forget how many nativist racist Tea Party types are in Arizona though, they love Trump for his immigration policies. I mean these nuts did elect Jan Brewer and Joe Arpaio. Sure Arizona has a huge alienated and growing Hispanic population, but this may be too soon for it to vote Democratic. The retiree population will also come out very strongly for Trump as well.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 26, 2016, 03:49:35 pm
I think there's a good chance she'll seriously contest the state this cycle. This may be the Democrats' Indiana ('08) in 2016.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on April 26, 2016, 08:06:47 pm
I think there's a good chance she'll seriously contest the state this cycle. This may be the Democrats' Indiana ('08) in 2016.

NC is, due to Gov McCrory


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Stephen Curry is Awesome on April 26, 2016, 08:08:14 pm
NC is likely to go Dem and be Trump's Waterloo due to Gov McCrory.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 27, 2016, 04:24:56 am
Yep, time to nuke Trump at convention.  We'll see if he can be kept under 1237.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Griff on April 27, 2016, 04:37:33 am
It's going to be so beautiful...

()


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on April 27, 2016, 05:03:41 am
I have him losing TX, MT, IN, SC and MS. LA is tossup.

:lol: Utah. I must change my prediction!


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: The Unbearable Inevitability of Nevada going Democratic on April 27, 2016, 04:31:09 pm
I don't see AZ going for Clinton in November, but anything's possible. If it's at all close, though, Trump's toast.

Something I may have said in 2008 around this time:

I don't see VA going for Obama in November, but anything's possible. If it's at all close, though, McCain is toast.

I'm not so sure. I definitely saw VA as a potentially competitive state early on in 2008. I'd be stunned if AZ ended up being only 1 point more Republican than the PV this year.


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: swf541 on April 28, 2016, 09:02:51 am
BRC is not a good pollster


Title: Re: AZ-Behavior Research Center: Clinton +7
Post by: pbrower2a on April 28, 2016, 09:46:51 am
But D+7 is consistent with a lack of enthusiasm of Mormons for Trump and a surge in voting by Mexican-Americans.

Count on this: Arizona will be interesting this year. This is far from the last poll of Arizona. Some of us saw signs of Arizona becoming a swing state in recent elections, most notably the weak performance of John McCain for a favorite son in the 2008 Presidential election.

It will be difficult for the Republican nominee (I assume Donald Trump) to win the Presidency without winning Arizona. If the Republicans lose Arizona they have also lost Colorado as well.