|
Title: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Ronnie on April 29, 2016, 10:52:58 AM Conducted April 27-28, MoE +/-5
GOP Trump 41% Cruz 32% Kasich 21% Dems Clinton 51% Sanders 43% http://americanresearchgroup.com RIP Trump? Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Holmes on April 29, 2016, 10:55:49 AM They got the MD GOP primary right, so that was a thing.
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on April 29, 2016, 10:58:19 AM This is actually highly concerning. Yikes.
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: swf541 on April 29, 2016, 11:00:13 AM Why havent we banned ARG yet? I mean you cant even guess which way they get it wrong or "forgot to poll area x"
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: dspNY on April 29, 2016, 11:01:58 AM Sanders and Cruz can start writing their Indiana victory speeches now
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Seriously? on April 29, 2016, 11:44:23 AM Conducted April 27-28, MoE +/-5 GOP Trump 41% Cruz 32% Kasich 21% Dems Clinton 51% Sanders 43% http://americanresearchgroup.com RIP Trump? ARGGGGGH!!!!!! Looks like they are getting good at following the pack.... Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Holmes on April 29, 2016, 11:51:04 AM Sanders and Cruz can start writing their Indiana victory speeches now Sanders will just give his regular stump speech for 75 minutes whether he wins or loses anyway? Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Classic Conservative on April 29, 2016, 12:02:26 PM Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet.
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on April 29, 2016, 12:05:31 PM Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet. Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target. Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Fargobison on April 29, 2016, 12:10:22 PM Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet. Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target. I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana. Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on April 29, 2016, 12:58:46 PM I'm not sure I understand why this is concerning for Trump. Is it because Kasich is high enough that a great deal of his support might flow to CRUZ?
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Simfan34 on April 29, 2016, 01:08:32 PM I'm not sure I understand why this is concerning for Trump. Is it because Kasich is high enough that a great deal of his support might flow to CRUZ? Because ARRRGGGH! Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: dspNY on April 29, 2016, 01:11:22 PM Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet. Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target. I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana. If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian. on April 29, 2016, 01:15:53 PM I'm not sure I understand why this is concerning for Trump. Is it because Kasich is high enough that a great deal of his support might flow to CRUZ? Because ARRRGGGH! Oh! Oh, I get it. I was confusing ARG with a less sh**tty pollster. Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on April 29, 2016, 01:45:24 PM I'm not sure I understand why this is concerning for Trump. Is it because Kasich is high enough that a great deal of his support might flow to CRUZ? Personally, I'm concerned with Trump being only at 41. I was hoping mid 40s at this stage. Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: IceSpear on April 29, 2016, 02:32:38 PM Good lord, the Indiana polls in the past few days have been dire.
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: ashridge on April 29, 2016, 03:56:25 PM ARG was the last poll that came out before Wisconsin voted. They Undershot Cruz's actual # by 16. Overshot Trump's actual # by 7, and Overshot Kasich's actual # by 9. They've been about Kasich's best pollster the whole campaign, almost always overshooting his actual result, and usually by a lot. They also seem to be very frequently off on Trump, almost always in his favor as well. The only one they undershoot on a regular basis is Cruz. These IN numbers are actually almost exactly what the Wisconsin numbers were. Now I don't think Cruz is going to win IN by 13 like he did in Wisconsin, but seeing Trump up by 9 over Cruz in an ARG poll doesn't make me think Trump's going to win Indiana, either. They were way off in TX, IA and MI as well, to name a few.
I have a hard time seeing Kasich getting 21% in Indiana, with him not campaigning or advertising there, and with Pence endorsing Cruz. Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: IceSpear on April 29, 2016, 04:07:05 PM ARG was the last poll that came out before Wisconsin voted. They Undershot Cruz's actual # by 16. Overshot Trump's actual # by 7, and Overshot Kasich's actual # by 9. They've been about Kasich's best pollster the whole campaign, almost always overshooting his actual result, and usually by a lot. They also seem to be very frequently off on Trump, almost always in his favor as well. The only one they undershoot on a regular basis is Cruz. These IN numbers are actually almost exactly what the Wisconsin numbers were. Now I don't think Cruz is going to win IN by 13 like he did in Wisconsin, but seeing Trump up by 9 over Cruz in an ARG poll doesn't make me think Trump's going to win Indiana, either. They were way off in TX, IA and MI as well, to name a few. I have a hard time seeing Kasich getting 21% in Indiana, with him not campaigning or advertising there, and with Pence endorsing Cruz. I don't think you can apply any consistent biases to ARG. They had Hillary up 1 in Wisconsin but only up 6 in Maryland. It's better to just ignore them. Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: swf541 on April 29, 2016, 04:14:22 PM ARG was the last poll that came out before Wisconsin voted. They Undershot Cruz's actual # by 16. Overshot Trump's actual # by 7, and Overshot Kasich's actual # by 9. They've been about Kasich's best pollster the whole campaign, almost always overshooting his actual result, and usually by a lot. They also seem to be very frequently off on Trump, almost always in his favor as well. The only one they undershoot on a regular basis is Cruz. These IN numbers are actually almost exactly what the Wisconsin numbers were. Now I don't think Cruz is going to win IN by 13 like he did in Wisconsin, but seeing Trump up by 9 over Cruz in an ARG poll doesn't make me think Trump's going to win Indiana, either. They were way off in TX, IA and MI as well, to name a few. I have a hard time seeing Kasich getting 21% in Indiana, with him not campaigning or advertising there, and with Pence endorsing Cruz. I don't think you can apply any consistent biases to ARG. They had Hillary up 1 in Wisconsin but only up 6 in Maryland. It's better to just ignore them. Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Heisenberg on April 29, 2016, 04:26:17 PM Go Trump!
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Eraserhead on April 29, 2016, 05:45:23 PM Good to see.
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Xing on April 29, 2016, 06:41:01 PM Congrats to Cruz and Sanders on their respective victories in Indiana.
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Badger on April 30, 2016, 05:56:19 PM Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet. Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target. I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana. If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio They polled 400 likely voters in each party's primary. That even self-identified D/R split is likely to make responses seem more purple state than a red state like IN. Though that in and of itself doesn't necessarily throw off the results of the individual primary numbers. Leaving any issues about this being ARG (haven't they been at less not notably less off than most posters this cycle? Or at least been in the ballpark enough to rise above the status of complete effing joke? Or is that Gravis I'm thinking of?), there's no way Kasich is getting 21% next week, and Cruz will win the lion's share of the difference. IF this poll is accurate, Trump may be in trouble Tuesday. Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Wisconsin+17 on April 30, 2016, 07:09:27 PM Who hoo! ARG had Trump up in WI too!
Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: IceSpear on April 30, 2016, 07:54:52 PM Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet. Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target. I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana. If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio They polled 400 likely voters in each party's primary. That even self-identified D/R split is likely to make responses seem more purple state than a red state like IN. Though that in and of itself doesn't necessarily throw off the results of the individual primary numbers. Leaving any issues about this being ARG (haven't they been at less not notably less off than most posters this cycle? Or at least been in the ballpark enough to rise above the status of complete effing joke? Or is that Gravis I'm thinking of?), there's no way Kasich is getting 21% next week, and Cruz will win the lion's share of the difference. IF this poll is accurate, Trump may be in trouble Tuesday. They were off by 20+ in Wisconsin and Maryland, and that's only recently... Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Badger on April 30, 2016, 08:29:25 PM Wait 49% of Indiana approves of Obama. Why havent we banned this group yet. Why wouldn't they when he's at a clear majority nationally. That's right on target. I would expect Obama to be in the low 40s in a state like Indiana. If that...Indiana might have voted for him in 2008 but I can't see him above 40% there now and I think Obama's approval is several points above even where you would expect in the blue states. He's probably sitting at 38% in Indiana and 48% in Ohio They polled 400 likely voters in each party's primary. That even self-identified D/R split is likely to make responses seem more purple state than a red state like IN. Though that in and of itself doesn't necessarily throw off the results of the individual primary numbers. Leaving any issues about this being ARG (haven't they been at less not notably less off than most posters this cycle? Or at least been in the ballpark enough to rise above the status of complete effing joke? Or is that Gravis I'm thinking of?), there's no way Kasich is getting 21% next week, and Cruz will win the lion's share of the difference. IF this poll is accurate, Trump may be in trouble Tuesday. They were off by 20+ in Wisconsin and Maryland, and that's only recently... Did you note I capitalized/emphasized "IF"? ;) Actually I just noticed something: EXCEPT for the ARG outlier, EVERY poll in the last 2 weeks before WI had Cruz up. The last three sans ARG averaged him ahead by +6. On the other hand, every IN poll (except that excerable Cruz +16 joke) in the last week and a half has had Trump up. Taking out the aforementioned joke poll, plus the borderline internal +2 poll, and the last three IN polls including this one have Trump up an average of +6.6. If any #neverTrump types want to nitpick over excluding the +2 poll, its inclusion would still have Trump up by about 5 1/2. This still will be close, and Cruz could pull off an upset, but even if the polls are overestimating Trump's lead by as much as 5 points he'll still win. And unlike previous contests where he needed to win big in order to run his delegate totals up ahead of the pack, in IN he basically just needs to win by 1 vote to make his nomination near-certain. Title: Re: IN - ARG: Trump +9, Clinton +8 Post by: Simfan34 on April 30, 2016, 08:47:23 PM If Trump loses badly then he can very well lose Indiana as well. I don't know why so many people seem to believe Indiana is so inelastic; it's not as if the 2008 result was the product of a mass psychotic break. It'll swing to the Dems under the right conditions, which I think have a fair chance of being met in a Trump-Hillary matchup. Sure, a large portion of the state may appear culturally similar to the South, but so does much of Pennsylvania-- another state that people here refuse to believe could ever possibly flip (despite a clear Republican trend).
|