Talk Elections

NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of Indiana:

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/donald-trump-leads-cruz-15-points-crucial-indiana-race-n565356

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Count me as a Hillary supporter till November.

Keep in mind they way underestimated Trump and overestimated Cruz in their last PA poll (then again,  every poll did I think.)

My Indiana ratings:
Safe Trump
Safe Sanders

More:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/NEWS/NBC%20NewsWSJMarist.pdf
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-holds-15-point-lead-ahead-of-republican-rivals-in-indiana-poll-1462107603

2nd choices:
Kasich 39%
Cruz 31%
Trump 18%

If you reallocate Kasich’s 2nd choices to create a hypothetical 2-man race, it’s:

Trump 53%
Cruz 42%

RIP in Peace #Nevertrump.

Goodbye to #NeverTrump and Adieu to Cruz-Fiorina

I think this is the first time we support the same candidate/party (although I would probably more often than not support the Liberal Party of Quebec).

Good to see that Bernie is still competetive in some states, even though voters might get the impression now that it's already over and start supporting Hillary in higher numbers ... but that seems not to be the case though.

Being competitive is not enough. Bernie must win by huge margins if he wants to be the nominee.

That's virtually impossible now because of the idiotic superdelegates who are blindly loyal to their beloved princess ...

She is rather an beloved old, currupt, establishment toad.

Bernie is losing even amongst non super delegates.

Her margin is double that of obama's delegate lead in 2008.


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We should have a CBS YouGov poll too since they polled Indiana last week on both sides

Bye bye, Cruz.

Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Cruz still wont drop out i bet.

For Trump, that would be the knockout! I hope, I hope, I hope. ;D

A lot of polls seem to be showing him in the very upper 40s and possibly improving overall as well. I also happen to believe in the "enthusiasm edge" if it's really obvious or lopsided, and he also seems to have that pretty clearly.

Wow, the Democratic race might give us something interesting to follow on Tuesday.

Looks like Cruz is done for though. Good riddance!

Wow!  Looks like the Republican race is finally over.  Will Trump sweep every CD if this result holds?

Nate Silver and Harry Enten must be reeling right now.

If this poll is at all accurate (and it might not because it's also a major outlier in the Senate primary), RIP conservative movement.  A Trump win in Indiana would be the worst day in America in years.

The super delegates aren't going to shift the race, because they will vote for the pledged delegate leader regardless of who it is.

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I like how the three candidates left were given a 9% chance by Nate, 10% chance by Katherine, and a -1% chance by Harry. lolz

Why are some people surprised by the Dem numbers? They are exactly the same like in every other respectable poll.

Cruz last stand and he's not gonna win.

Sanders should be winning and hes not.

Cruz isn't doing crap in California if he's losing by this much in Indiana.

Looks like Clinton actually might win Indiana.

Nope.

If TRUMP is winning in IN by this much, I imagine he's not that far behind in Nebraska and South Dakota.

If the inevitability factor kicks in, it wouldn't shock me. I guess we'll find out when Nebraska votes on May 10.

It's sad that so many Rebublican voters are voting for the one expected to win instead of him who they support. (Yes, I am aware the grammatical structure of the previous sentence hinges upon actual percentages.)

You make an interesting point about why it might be an outlier. The WHTR/Howey IN poll early this week showing Trump over Cruz by 6, showed Young over Stutzman in the IN GOP U.S. Senate primary by 12. Well, this NBC/WSJ poll showing Trump over Cruz by 15 shows Young over Stutzman by 32! That's a 20 point greater lead by Young than in the other poll in the same week. That seems....unlikely.

Not at all. People like to vote for winners not losers.

Oh yeah, one other reason to think the NBC/WSJ poll might be an outlier: It shows Trump beating both Clinton (easily) AND Sanders H2H in Indiana in November. That also seems....unlikely.

Not really.  The voting base of Southern Indiana seems like a good fit for Trump.

The same Howey poll you mentioned has Trump up 8 over Hillary.

Yup!  Looks like the Downs Poll was infused with special sauce.   Without the Downs poll the average is about Trump +8

Welcome to the Hilldawg big tent! :)

"The impression"? It is already over. It shouldn't effect the votes too much though. Hillary won many states in 08 even after her path to the nomination was effectively closed. I don't think many voters think in these terms. At least on the Democratic side, anyway. If last week's results and this poll are any indication, it's helping Trump a lot.

I don't doubt that. But when polls show Trump in danger of losing Utah and Mississippi and North Carolina, and Arizona (and many more) to Clinton in a General, I have a hard time believing he's going to beat her by 8 in Indiana.

I'm not surprised. Hillary has a higher chance of beating Trump in Utah, North Carolina, Missouri, Georgia, and Arizona than she does in Indiana. Hillary could win the election nationwide by 10-30 points and she'd still lose Indiana. Trump is the perfect candidate for Indiana (unlike McCain).

If Hillary is winning Indiana, or even if she loses by a little, this primary race is still over.

You guys are also forgetting about angry Indiana men. Angry sexist Indiana men would never vote Hillary. Bernie might win Indiana against Trump though. Bernie is a good fit for Indiana. He has the potential to appeal to many populist angry sexist Indiana men. Hillary is going to lose Indiana by double-digits though even if she wins nationwide by double-digits. The gender gap is going to be huge in Indiana, but angry sexist Indiana men will turnout at record levels, thus assuring a Trump victory in Indiana during the general election.

Even if she lost by 20 it would still be over.

What about this?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=18&year=2008&f=0&off=0&elect=1

Racism

So Sanders has to win what like 80-90 % of the vote in California if he loses Indiana too? LOL Sure that's achievable.

1. Her opponent was a black, you see.
2. A large majority of Democratic Party primary voters in Indiana are probably female. The gender split in Indiana during the general election is probably a lot more even.
3. The only reason why Obama narrowly won Indiana in 2008 was because McCain was the candidate. McCain was seen as a liberal, immigrant-lovin' RINO by most Republicans, thus a significant portion of angry Indiana men stayed home, so Obama narrowly won the state.

Hillary is crushing Trump by 8-15 point nationwide according to most polls.

Polls have shown Hillary beating TRUMP in North Carolina, Georgia, UTAH, Arizona, and Missouri, yet Trump still crushes Hillary in Indiana according to a recent poll.

This means that North Carolina, Georgia, Utah, Arizona, and Missouri are all more Democratic than Indiana. This means that Hillary could win the election by 8-15 points and still lose Indiana. The reason why Indiana has become a lot more Republican now than it was in 2008 is because all the angry and sexist Indiana men hate Hillary and love TRUMP.

Lol no.

Why would Trump lose Indiana? He's literally the perfect fit for the state (unlike McCain). Indiana is full of low-information rust-belt whites who hate free trade and immigration. Trump is going to get these people to turnout at record levels. Indiana is full of angry men who will love Trump. Clinton is winning Utah, Georgia, and Missouri before she wins Indiana. Clinton is also winning Wyoming and Alabama before she wins Indiana.

Trump has a higher chance of winning New Hampshire than losing Indiana. :)

Ok, I was joking about Alabama and Wyoming, but I am completely (100%) serious about Utah, Georgia, and Missouri. Trump is literally the perfect fit for Indiana. Indiana will massively trend towards Trump. Why would Trump lose Indiana? His populist message is perfect for this state.

lol, this rings a bell.

RR1997's Indiana obsession is as valid as your New Hampshire one.

So you seriously believe that Hawaii and Vermont are more Democratic than New Hampshire?

No.

My obsession with Indiana is not as valid as TNVolunteer's obsession with NH. It is a lot more valid. Obama beat Romney 5 points in NH. Romney beat Obama by 10 points in Indiana. Despite the fact that Trump is down by 8-15 points nationwide, he's still ahead by a lot in Indiana. McCain lost Indiana because he was seen as a RINO by most conservatives there, so they stayed home. Trump should easily win Indiana.

It is not the end, but neither is it merely the beginning of the end - it's more like the beginning of the end of the end. My emotion when it comes to the Pub party these days - et tu, Brute? It's metamorphosed my former life form, as if a caterpillar becomes a butterfly. My former habitat has too much of its acreage consigned to a toxic waste dump. It's just not good for me.

Sad!

Yes, Trump can't get more than 100% of the vote.

NH is more likely to go red for Trump than PA.

Unless Trump collapses, I feel reasonably good about him winning AZ and GA now (the current demographics will save him, but expedite them trending Dem. If he wins GA could go Democratic in 2018 instead of 2022 of instance).

MO and Indiana actually do fit Trump rather well and I think he likewise wins both. The question will be by what margins. Used to be winning GOP Presidents won Indiana by around 20%. Perhaps MO is the new Indiana of old on that score, I see Trump getting 20% there more easily than in Indiana.

Trump's problem is breaking through to 270.

GA IS NOT GOING DEM ANYTIME SOON.   THIS STATE (EX ATL parts of it) IS STILL VERY REDISH.  Crooked Hillary is the wrong type of candidate anyway.  Bill possibly could.  Grabbing guns and open boarders is a sure way to get whites in rural GA to vote in mass against you.

... if you're going to write baseless emotion-riddled screeds... probably best to check your spelling.

"Baseless emotion" like the ideal that Georgia is going to be a Hillary state?       

Give me a break.

Come on, Torie, it's not that bad. You just haven't given Trump a second chance (yet). :)

His analysis of my home state is spot on. Georgia is not going Democrat anytime soon. Hillary! sure as heck is not going to win it. The suburbs are still reliably Republican, offsetting any nonsense in the city of Atlanta and DeKalb county. Rural Georgia is, was and remains Republican.

This holds true including Nathan "crooked" Deal.

The but minorities! meme does not hold water in Georgia at present.

We posters that actually live here know better.   Ga is strong Republican trumpist type of state outside of certain parts of Atlanta.   Case in point is the never ending fight with getting marta to other parts of the metro... republican controlled house shows zero support and dems aren't strong enough presence locally to get anything done.   Heck AZ might go Hillary before GA Trump would need to have a historic horrible campaign.    Dekalb will go strong for Hillray since they love crooked politicians.

The sexist IN man thing is real

:)

LOL at the Kasich numbers and the Dem race.