Talk Elections

Democrats

Sanders: 45%
Clinton: 37%

Republicans

Trump: 61%
Cruz: 22%
Kasich: 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/05/trump-sanders-lead-in-west-virginia.html

Woof!

I'm guessing that such voters are Old School type Democrats who proudly voted for Robert Byrd at every opportunity.

^^ Go Keith Judd!

Are the 2 voters that Ben Kenobi knows that will definitely vote for Cruz included in this poll?

wow... this is one state where they actually like Trump.

Great news!

I wonder if the felon/prison inmate can crack 20%. #Juddmentum

Would be interesting to see how Clinton's numbers are trending. Compared to a months' old poll, she's up, but it's hard to draw conclusions from that.

But if the double whammy of New York Tuesday and Pennsylvania Tuesday have given Hillary some momentum, she could be rising here and be in contention for the win.

I doubt it, but hey... who knows?

Is O'Malley on the ballot? Because if so, O'Malleymentum is coming.

Nope. The people on the ballot are:

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Rocky De La Fuente
Keith Judd
Paul T. Farrell Jr.

I think De La Fuente is probably too "ethnic" sounding to get many protest votes, so he shouldn't matter very much. But unfortunately, Judd and Farrell could split the protest vote, leading neither one to receive any delegates. :(

"The 18% of voters who are undecided is unusually high and speaks to the number of registered Democrats in West Virginia who don't really identify with the national party at this point. Among the undecideds Sanders has a 15/77 favorability rating and Clinton's even worse off at 12/84 so there may end up being a decent mass of voters who just don't vote for either of the candidates."

LOLz. Maybe the convict can get some delegates.

What is wrong with this state?

Well, what do Clinton and Sanders have to offer it, really?

Appalachian coal country's problems are so severe, so acute, and so different from those of most of the rest of the country that a Democratic campaign that was really interested in competing for its vote qua its vote would have to devote a great deal of time, attention, and energy specifically to crafting policies to help ameliorate those problems, and even more time, attention, and energy to selling those policies. Personally I think there should be somebody doing this (and would have hoped, in the past, that Sanders might), but that isn't how things are going this cycle.

I wonder if the other candidates (not Clinton/Sanders) can get a higher percentage than what Sanders got in Mississippi.

West Virginia is going to be a Sanders enclave.

I'd hope so, but with Paul Farrell on the ballot siphoning his votes, neither one will likely break the 15% threshold.

New Poll: West Virginia President by Public Policy Polling on 2016-05-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016R/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5420160501108)

Summary:

Trump:	61%
Cruz:	22%
Kasich:	14%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_WV_50316.pdf)

I know it's not the focus of this topic, but what are those acute issues? I definitely know that West Virginia is different, but why? My jump to, coal, doesn't look like it can be the main drive. From what I can glean on the topic it only employs around 30,000 people (http://www.wvminesafety.org/wvcoalfacts.htm) in a state where the total labor force is 785,500 (http://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.wv.htm), and the unemployment rate is just slightly above the national average. Is that enough to drive the entire focus of the state to the point at which a third candidate stands a chance of getting such a large number of votes? What part am I missing here?

Is there a write-in option?

Yeah, but the person you're writing in has to have filed as a write-in candidate for the vote to be counted. Doesn't really matter though, people are perfectly willing to vote for Judd, he got >40% against Obama in the 2012 primary.

The problem is that:

1. Non-coal parts of the state's labor force function (or functioned) in a manner ancillary to the coal industry and supporting it.
2. West Virginia's culture is hugely tied up in the values and mythology of the coal industry.

More to the point coal used to employ hundreds of thousands (and steel rather a lot as well). The industrial parts of WV have been a social disaster for over thirty years now.

West Virginians hate neat election maps evidently.

Such classist attacks, without understanding West Virginian's thought of mind, or why they are being dissatisfied with the democratic party.

Can he crack 80% now?

3.  WV is incredibly reliant on severance taxes (not just on coal, but on NG too) they also count on property taxes on the mines and mine equipment for revenue.  As you might imagine, the state is currently somewhere beyond broke.

For those who have an interest, here is an actual public policy blog for WV (a liberal one), which might provide you with some of the information you find to be lacking here (though there's little to no discussion)

http://www.wvpolicy.org/category/blog

As I've expressed before, I personally view WV to be screwed, a Detroit with much more difficult terrain to maintain any kind of infrastructure.  Severe public health problems and demographics that make for a feeble workforce (save for the Eastern panhandle which has nothing in common with the rest of the state) and guaranteed population decline. 

I've posted this before, but here it is again:

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Healthcare is actually the biggest industry in WV, thanks to the elderly and the disabled, but WV can't replenish it's retirees like Florida can, and people don't live as long in WV either, so not sure what the state will look like as the baby boomers die off.  It is quite the pickle.

You mean Trump? 90% is probably possible for him.

And with Cruz out of the race, he'll get every delegate.

On that note, Sanders could now win even bigger, since indies no longer have a reason to vote in the GOP primary.

Well yeah, now he can.

That could actually make some of the other races in the next few primary states more competitive if some of these independent voters go after Sanders since the GOP race is over.

It won't change the Dem race that much but it'll make it more interesting.

WV is the only state it will matter.

KY/OR/NJ/NM - Closed
CA/MT/SD - Closed on the GOP side, so indies would've been forced to the Dem side regardless
ND - Open, and GOP will not/did not have a contest, so indies would be forced Dem here as well

^I wonder if more people will pay attention to the Democratic race now, since even though 99% of us know what the outcome will be, it's the only side that still has more than one candidate left. I'm not saying that will help Sanders, but it might be interesting to see if turnout changes in the last nine contests.