Talk Elections

Donald Trump 43%
Hillary Clinton 30%

Donald Trump 43%
Bernie Sanders 37%

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9518- (http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9518-)

RIP Battleground Utah.

Trump losing UT was always a pipe dream. Fortunately, UT is nowhere near a must-win for Hillary.

RIP indeed to Democratic Utah 2016; it was a fun, absurd dream.  This poll is still hilariously close though, given how a Democrat like Hillary Clinton should be polling Utah.

He's probably going to win it in the end, but the county map will look vastly different than it did in 2012.

The swing/trend here is still going to be ridiculous.

The relative closeness of Utah is not so much important for Utah as it is for neighboring Nevada and Arizona.

But Utah State will be the swing state!

Almost certain that most of those 26% of undecided will be Trump voters too.

This is pretty close to my guess based on trends and demographics... that is, in a Clinton +7 election, I have Utah going to Trump with a margin of 15 points.

So either I got something reasonably right with my Latino/Mormon swing, this poll is not representative, or Clinton isn't ahead by 7 nationally (obviously any of those is perfectly plausible).

Muh Utah :(

Or they won't vote.

Looks like Utah conservatives are finally coming home to Trump.

Aw, I liked the idea of Utah as a battleground state :(

Trump has brought the Mormons to heel.

The swing will still be massive though. Also, Utah is now a toss up on the Atlas map lol. Enjoy it while it lasts.

For Utah, a Republican in the lead with 43% is still awful.

PPP is releasing a poll of Arizona this week. If I am a Democrat I would still rather win Arizona. 

Although 43% for a Republican in Utah is pathetic, and Clinton will probably receive a small bounce from holdout Sanders supporters herself once she clinches the nomination... that was fun while it lasted.

I'd say Utah will still give 5-10% to Johnson.

It was fun while it lasted.

Is there a Constitution Party candidate on the ballot in Utah? If so, I'd reckon (s)he would do better than Gary Johnson or any Libertarian. I wouldn't think Mormons would want to vote for a libertarian since libertarians' views on social issues are in conflict with what "Jesus" believes.

Seriously?

Utah = Mormons. Trump did terribly with Mormons in the primaries. Comparing UT to any other state other than perhaps Idaho doesn't make sense.  Hint: Hillary! isn't winning Idaho, just like Trump isn't winning the People's Socialist Republic of Vermont.

Trump also won by healthy margins in Nevada and Arizona in the Republican primary. He should play well in both states as there won't be as much erosion by the #NeverTrump losers as you think.

There are lots of Mormons in NV/AZ...

Well, time to pack up. We had our month of fun at least.

Not nearly as much as in Utah. Nevada is about 4% Mormon, and Arizona 5%. Utah is about half Mormon, more or less. Wyoming is about 11%.

Yeah, it's a lot harder for Mormons to lie about their numbers in the USA compared to places such as Tonga :)

TRUMP will compensate his weakness in some of these states (although he'll win Utah with a 99% chance) with his strenght in the rust belt.

Actually, you've got it reversed; non-American countries, especially those with established religions, are generally more strict on what constitutes an "active" Mormon. American demographers aren't nearly as strict, and generally go by the numbers the LDS Church says it has.

Outside of America, they're generally stricter on the finances of a religion as well.

The Constitution Party could have done well if they had chosen someone like Labrador to try to corner the Mormon vote.  They might get a respectable performance in Utah, and, with Virgil Goode as the running mate, get the sort of votes he got in Virginia.

Not surprised in he slightest. It's like I said, Democrats are instinctively hated and Hillary represents that absolute worst faction. (There's a reason Perot did better than Bill there in '92)

The only way Utah'd flip would be if the Democrat facing trump were Obama,...Obama 2008 specifically.

Bernie in his own way is closer to that sort of idealism than Hillary, hence why he is doing better in this poll and why he won the caucus.

But their turnout rate is much higher than the general population, right?

Well, Utah itself has notoriously bad voter turnout, but that may be because barely any of the non-Mormon population bothers to vote, while the Mormons do tend to vote. Overall, since they tend to be civic-minded, very religious, middle to upper-middle class white people, Mormons seem like they'd have a higher turnout; I don't know for sure, I don't know the particular statistics.

Good old days of 2004 are no more, I suppose. Anyway, do you have a schedule of the next PPP polls coming? I'd like to see MT (Presidential, Governor, US House) and NV (Presidential, Senatorial, NV-03 and NV-04).
Edit: Found the NM poll, results are what I expected.