Talk Elections

http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 33%
Johnson: 14%

Before the anti-Hillary clowns leap on this, here's a reminder from four years back: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156139.0 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=156139.0)

In July 2012 Obama was only up 42-38 in a 3 way race with Johnson. Hillary will win NM comfortably.

Clinton +8 isn't that strange a result if she's up 2-3 points nationally at the moment.  I hope we get to see the head to head result too when the full cross tabs are released.

no

I'm sure a couple more tweets of TRUMP eating from a Taco Bowl will make him competitive among Hispanics.

Is Johnson taking more from Trump or from Clinton?

Johnson taking 14% probably means the same in Utah I would think.

Clinton should win NM by about 5 or 6.

Anyone who thinks New Mexico will be that close is delusional.

It is not the matter of left/right at this point. In order to appeal to Hispanics, I am afraid, Trump will have to campaign against Donald Trump personally.

Obama won New Mexico by ten points.  Who in the right mind thinks Trump will outperform Romney?

It's an open election. History shows that Trump will likely outperform Romney. Romney was a terrible candidate.

As to the point of NM, thought, it's probably a lean D this cycle. Trump would win by a healthy margin if he took the state.

And Trump is a good one?

LOL

I don't think history is a good metric for Trump's support.

Atlas really has gone down the Nate Silver route of political analysis, hasn't it.  Sad.

Johnson was supposed to get a large chunk of the vote in 2012. He got 3.5%.

PPP will continue to be a joke as long as they keep including third parties.

Including third parties really does distort the result.

Where's the actual polling report? I would like to see the numbers without Johnson/Stein included (as that will be closer to reality).

Hillary might approach 60% in this state.  By all accounts, it will be a bloodbath.

Or the race is much closer than people think? If we're so quick as to think New Mexico --> lots of Hispanics --> must be a large Trump lose, then our analysis is lazy and flawed. Gary Johnson takes about evenly from R's and D's.

I do think Clinton will win by more, but at the moment, Clinton has not united the party, Trump has (despite all the talk of politicians hating him, Republican voters like him, and that's what matters).

There have been multiple AZ polls showing a close race. If Trump had united the party and/or Hispanics were not heavily against him, he'd be leading there easily.

I think Hillary will win by 8 or 9, but I guess that's wishful thinking.

New Mexico is not a swing state this year; Arizona is. In a good year for a Republican nominee, New Mexico is a swing state and Arizona isn't.

Not anymore. After this election, the GOP will be even worse off with Hispanics, and by 2020 New Mexico will have even less white people than it does this year. Republicans performance among Hispanics is simply too terrible at this point to be able to win that state short of anything but a mini-landslide win (55%+ I would guess), or perhaps more.

Arizona is primarily an option this cycle because the Republican candidate is set to perform exceptionally bad with the fastest growing demographic in Arizona. So bad that his candidacy is highly likely to heavily drive up turnout among that traditionally low-turnout group. It would take a really terrible Democrat and decent Republican opponent to put NM in play in the future, imo.

We all know that double-digit position for Johnson won't last.

Ohio is not a swing state this year; Michigan is. In a good year for a Democratic nominee, Ohio is a swing state and Michigan isn't.

hmmm maybe johnson gets large funding from the mormon mafia which could help him win some mountain states and throw this thing 2 the house?

Except Michigan isn't a swing state. Where is your evidence to back up this ridiculous narrative other than conjecture?

MI: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/mi/michigan_trump_vs_clinton-5533.html

DAT SWING

OH: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html

DAT SAFE

Wut?

$100 on it. Here and now. Totally serious.

Badger, you old Pub hating hack!

I was going to agree, but then I saw your post in the thread IceSpear linked. "5+7=12, so twelve point Clinton lead."

Well, 8+666=674, so Clinton wins by 674 percent.

I don't believe it for a second, but if Gary can do this well in New Mexico, I'm all for it.

Same here. I'd bet that he'll break 5% in NM and maybe a few other states, but I doubt he'll break double digits anywhere.

Trump surpassed George W. Bush as the leading vote getter all-time in Republican primaries. So as far as the base goes, I'd say the answer is yes. You can see from the national polling that the party has pretty much unified like they typically do after a primary.