Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Fargobison on May 25, 2016, 01:24:11 pm



Title: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Fargobison on May 25, 2016, 01:24:11 pm
Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Eraserhead on May 25, 2016, 01:25:32 pm
Too many undecideds. Junk poll!


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: dax00 on May 25, 2016, 01:28:50 pm
Lots of undecideds don't automatically make it a junk poll. Geez. Not pushing them does make it a junk poll.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Buh her emails! on May 25, 2016, 01:29:42 pm
B-b-but Trump could turn the rust belt blue!!!!!


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Ronnie on May 25, 2016, 01:29:46 pm
Wisconsin is safe D with Trump at the top of the GOP ticket.  Nothing to see here.

B-b-but Trump could turn the rust belt red!!!!!

Wisconsin is hardly a rust belt state.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: mds32 on May 25, 2016, 01:31:21 pm
Lots of undecideds don't automatically make it a junk poll. Geez. Not pushing them does make it a junk poll.

I agree


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Fargobison on May 25, 2016, 01:33:50 pm
I would expect WI to have a fair amount of undecideds at the moment, lots of #NeverTrumpers and Bernie supporters.

Would have be interesting to see a poll of the state with 3rd party candidates included.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Beef on May 25, 2016, 01:34:04 pm
Oh, gosh, oh geez.  Dat Trump, he's so impolite, hey.  Hillary, at least you woont be embarrassed to have at da church fish fry.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Beef on May 25, 2016, 01:38:07 pm
1. All those undecideds = problem

2. Further evidence that Trump's Midwest nice problem carries over to the general?

3. Really, really want to see a poll of Iowa now!

This.  And Minnesota, if anything to confirm/deny the "Minnesota inelasticity" theory.  Watch as MN polls +5.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Holmes on May 25, 2016, 01:39:17 pm
This one is weird. It has 11% undecided and 9% "would not vote". I guess the rest are "others".


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: john cage bubblegum on May 25, 2016, 01:55:58 pm
Another poll where I wish the pollster pushed undecideds more, but it's another bit of evidence that Trump has much less appeal in the upper Midwest than he does in OH/PA.  I'm very interested in seeing a high quality poll of Iowa.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Ronnie on May 25, 2016, 02:00:54 pm
Trump isn't a strong candidate for IA, so I don't see why it wouldn't be slightly more Democratic than the national average, as it usually is.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Eraserhead on May 25, 2016, 02:09:14 pm
Lots of undecideds don't automatically make it a junk poll. Geez. Not pushing them does make it a junk poll.

Well, yeah... didn't think I needed to type all that out on here.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Eraserhead on May 25, 2016, 02:11:01 pm
This one is weird. It has 11% undecided and 9% "would not vote". I guess the rest are "others".

Wisconsin might actually be one of the better states for third party candidates. They don't seem to like Clinton or Trump much.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: john cage bubblegum on May 25, 2016, 02:12:32 pm
Trump isn't a strong candidate for IA, so I don't see why it wouldn't be slightly more Democratic than the national average, as it usually is.

Yeah, I think it could be even a couple points more Dem than usual this year.  It's still nice to have (good) polls though.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: john cage bubblegum on May 25, 2016, 02:21:03 pm
In January we got a Clinton +8 and a tie from two good pollsters.  And nothing since then, so I'm curious.  Only 6 EVs, but they could end up being important.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Beef on May 25, 2016, 02:25:06 pm
This one is weird. It has 11% undecided and 9% "would not vote". I guess the rest are "others".

Wisconsin might actually be one of the better states for third party candidates. They don't seem to like Clinton or Trump much.

In my 18 years in the state I never saw any third-party candidate other than Perot gain much traction, and he was more a protest vote than anything else.

Wisconsin is split down the middle between staunch conservatives and labor-progressive Democrats.  The former really don't like Trump, while the latter will unify behind Clinton, despite Sanders having won the primary.  Huge advantage to Clinton.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Gass3268 on May 25, 2016, 02:53:44 pm
Oh, gosh, oh geez.  Dat Trump, he's so impolite, hey.  Hillary, at least you woont be embarrassed to have at da church fish fry.

This is very accurate.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: LLR on May 25, 2016, 02:57:48 pm
Why bother keeping in "would not vote"?

Without that

Clinton 47%
Trump 34%

A little better I guess


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: pbrower2a on May 25, 2016, 03:19:09 pm
Someone is above 40, so it has value. A poll in which nobody is above 40 is useless even if valid.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: x on May 25, 2016, 03:28:38 pm
Trump isn't a strong candidate for IA, so I don't see why it wouldn't be slightly more Democratic than the national average, as it usually is.

Honestly I have trouble seeing how Trump will win Iowa when the clip of him saying this is blanketing their airwaves non-stop in the Fall:

(Image Link)

And that's on top of his numerous other gaffes and insults that make life difficult for him in swing states. I must say, it is kind of him to provide Clinton with very personalized attack ad material just for Iowa.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Gass3268 on May 25, 2016, 03:29:31 pm
Should be noted that some right wing talk radio in Wisconsin is still #NeverTrump and have stated they will not back down. That's not going to help Trump in the Fall.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: pbrower2a on May 25, 2016, 03:36:28 pm
Iowa and Wisconsin go almost in tandem, the one time in which they went differently in recent years (2004) showing them both very close to 50-50 ties that year.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: HokeyDood on May 25, 2016, 03:45:30 pm
Hillary well under 50...     : (

(Image Link)


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: President Johnson on May 25, 2016, 03:48:10 pm
Wisconsin is just no good place for TRUMP. He should heavily focus on Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Ljube on May 25, 2016, 03:51:31 pm
Wisconsin is just no good place for TRUMP. He should heavily focus on Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Michigan and Ohio.

I'd say just Pennsylvania, Michigan and Ohio. And Florida too.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Xing on May 25, 2016, 09:13:04 pm
B-b-b-but everyone told me Wisconsin is a toss-up because THREE TIMES IN FOUR YEARS and MUH PRIMARY TURNOUT!


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Landslide Andy on May 25, 2016, 10:05:54 pm
Should be noted that some right wing talk radio in Wisconsin is still #NeverTrump and have stated they will not back down. That's not going to help Trump in the Fall.

If they stick to their guns, that's great news. They were proven to have quite a bit of influence in the primary.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Vosem on May 25, 2016, 10:11:51 pm
Shame they didn't test Johnson. Wisconsin has a history of high Libertarian result when faced with two unacceptable candidates. In the 2002 gubernatorial election, a dissident Republican ran on the Libertarian line and received 11% of the vote against two disliked major-party candidates (causing the actual Republican to lose the race, 45-41). If Johnson is truly at 10% nationally like the Morning Consult/Monmouth polls show, then he is at least in the mid-teens here (and if he's at 4% nationally like PPP shows, that would still be high single-digits here).


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Beef on May 26, 2016, 01:30:41 pm
Shame they didn't test Johnson. Wisconsin has a history of high Libertarian result when faced with two unacceptable candidates. In the 2002 gubernatorial election, a dissident Republican ran on the Libertarian line and received 11% of the vote against two disliked major-party candidates (causing the actual Republican to lose the race, 45-41).

Oh yeah!  I totally voted for that guy.  I can't remember his name, though.



#NeverTrump can run a Johnson & Johnson campaign - Gary and Ron.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Seriously? on May 27, 2016, 12:32:57 am
B-b-but Trump could turn the rust belt blue!!!!!
Because Trump did so well in RINO-loving Wisconsin in the primaries.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: StatesPoll on May 27, 2016, 02:43:14 am
Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf

in my opinion, TRUMP's chance of winning.

MN > CT = OR >= WA = WI





Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Beef on May 27, 2016, 01:52:55 pm
Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf

in my opinion, TRUMP's chance of winning.

MN > CT = OR >= WA = WI


Wait... what?


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Holmes on May 27, 2016, 02:22:32 pm
Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf

in my opinion, TRUMP's chance of winning.

MN > CT = OR >= WA = WI


Wait... what?


In other words, he has no chance of winning any of those states.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Angrie on May 27, 2016, 03:14:11 pm
Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf

in my opinion, TRUMP's chance of winning.

MN > CT = OR >= WA = WI


Wait... what?


Behold! Statespoll has invented a new kind of math!


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on May 27, 2016, 05:03:30 pm
Quote
In other words, he has no chance of winning any of those states.

:lol:

Feel the Bern!


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on May 27, 2016, 05:05:10 pm
Ohh, an R-7.5 map! :D


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: StatesPoll on May 28, 2016, 08:52:53 pm
Clinton 43
Trump 31

http://www.federationforchildren.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/16296-WI-School-Choice-Memo-Slides.pdf

in my opinion, TRUMP's chance of winning.

MN > CT = OR >= WA = WI


Wait... what?


Behold! Statespoll has invented a new kind of math!

New Poll: TRUMP beat Hillary 44-42 in Oregon.
( Oregon Statewide Survey of Likely General Election Voters May 10-13,2016, 657 RV)

http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf (http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf)

How r u feel? u snobby. My Analysis was right. I said Oregon could be a swing state in 2016. since long time ago.

when I posted it (Oregon could be a swing state in 2016) 2weeks ago


Everybody laughed on me.....

But I was right. (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236897.0)


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: LLR on May 29, 2016, 07:24:03 am
New Poll: TRUMP beat Hillary 44-42 in Oregon.
( Oregon Statewide Survey of Likely General Election Voters May 10-13,2016, 657 RV)

http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf (http://cloutpolitical.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/31/2016/05/OR-Statewide-Poll-Memorandum-5-18-2016.pdf)

How r u feel? u snobby. My Analysis was right. I said Oregon could be a swing state in 2016. since long time ago.

when I posted it (Oregon could be a swing state in 2016) 2weeks ago


Everybody laughed on me.....

But I was right.
 (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=236897.0)

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c5ebe6be-4a04-4ebd-87c0-4f09c2359c43
He won by 16

Even in 2012 polls underestimated Obama by 6.

One poll in May tells you nothing about November. Yes, Oregon has been a battleground state in the past. No, it won't go for Trump this year. You can count on it, Mr. ">="


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: pbrower2a on May 29, 2016, 12:02:51 pm
Wisconsin up 12 D -- Wisconsin must be very close to a Republican win if not a state voting R if the Republican nominee is to win the Presidency.

Wisconsin, 56-44 D? 2008 redux. That means that Florida and Ohio are both going for the Democrat.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: TJ in Oregon on May 29, 2016, 12:37:55 pm
Wisconsin up 12 D -- Wisconsin must be very close to a Republican win if not a state voting R if the Republican nominee is to win the Presidency.

Wisconsin, 56-44 D? 2008 redux. That means that Florida and Ohio are both going for the Democrat.

Ohio and Wisconsin are two completely different environments this year. Their Republican Parties have different bases, socioeconomic demographics, expectations for governance, etc. Anecdotally, almost every Republican I know in Ohio is voting for Trump while most of the Republicans I know in Wisconsin won't.

Anyway, I suspect the undecideds really are that high in Wisconsin right now, though they aren't so much undecided and determined not to vote for either candidate.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: TJ in Oregon on May 29, 2016, 12:39:33 pm
B-b-but Trump could turn the rust belt blue!!!!!
Because Trump did so well in RINO-loving Wisconsin in the primaries.

Because Scott Walker and Ted Cruz are RINOs and conservatism means who can lie the angriest. ::)


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: Anonymous on May 30, 2016, 09:36:42 am
What the heck? I'm so confused. Atlas told me that the cheeseheads up there hated that biatch Hitlery Clinton.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: TJ in Oregon on May 30, 2016, 09:45:23 am
What the heck? I'm so confused. Atlas told me that the cheeseheads up there hated that b**** Hitlery Clinton.

We do. We just hate Trump more. If either party had nominated someone else they'd be up a ton.


Title: Re: WI- Public Opinion Strategies: Clinton +12
Post by: pbrower2a on May 30, 2016, 10:03:53 am
Scott Walker is very much an Establishment Republican.