Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Ronnie on May 25, 2016, 11:32:01 pm



Title: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Ronnie on May 25, 2016, 11:32:01 pm
Conducted May 13-22, MoE +/- 4.3%
Clinton 49%
Trump 39%

http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/other/Crosstabs_LikelyVoters0516.pdf



Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 25, 2016, 11:35:32 pm
BEAUTIFUL! Thank you California!

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Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Former GM 1184AZ on May 25, 2016, 11:42:03 pm
Crosstabs
Gender
Male Trump 49-38
Female Clinton 61-30

Education  
High school only Clinton 59-28
Some College Trump 47-44
College Grad Clinton 50-37

Income
Below 40 thousand Clinton 68-21
Between 40-79 thousand Clinton 49-39
80 thousand plus Trump 49-40

Race
Hispanic Clinton 71-17
White Trump 49-40

Age
18-34 Clinton 66-28
35-64 Clinton 46-39
55+ Clinton 45-44


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Ronnie on May 25, 2016, 11:44:25 pm
The most suspicious part of the poll to me is the fact that Hillary is only leading him 55-29 in the Bay Area.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Former GM 1184AZ on May 25, 2016, 11:51:41 pm
OK, this has to be Sanders supporters playing coy, right?  Because this is 2 CA polls in a row with Clinton at half Obama's margin while it looks just like 2012 most everywhere else.  Or maybe it really is tied nationally because Clinton is only winning CA/IL/NY/NJ/MA by 10 while getting Obama 2012 numbers or better everywhere else?  If so, Trump is Tilden-level screwed in the EC...
I would like to see a poll with less undecideds that is close like this before reaching conclusion #2. I imagine most of the undecided will break for Clinton anyways.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Lief 🐋 on May 25, 2016, 11:52:21 pm
OK, this has to be Sanders supporters playing coy, right?  Because this is 2 CA polls in a row with Clinton at half Obama's margin while it looks just like 2012 most everywhere else.  Or maybe it really is tied nationally because Clinton is only winning CA/IL/NY/NJ/MA by 10 while getting Obama 2012 numbers or better everywhere else?  If so, Trump is Tilden-level screwed in the EC...

Nah, polls just aren't very good in California. Look at the polls from 2012. (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?fips=6) PPIC's final poll only had Obama winning California by 12%. Democrats are usually underestimated.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on May 25, 2016, 11:55:12 pm
That gender gap damn...


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: IceSpear on May 25, 2016, 11:55:22 pm
Junk. If this were accurate, Trump would be winning in a landslide nationally.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: marty on May 25, 2016, 11:57:01 pm
Junk. If this were accurate, Trump would be winning in a landslide nationally.
not true, bush lost by only 9.8 here vs kerry but only won overall by 3.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: IceSpear on May 25, 2016, 11:59:21 pm
Junk. If this were accurate, Trump would be winning in a landslide nationally.
not true, bush lost by only 9.8 here vs kerry but only won overall by 3.

California is a lot different now than it was in 2004.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on May 26, 2016, 12:25:01 am
Junk. If this were accurate, Trump would be winning in a landslide nationally.
not true, bush lost by only 9.8 here vs kerry but only won overall by 3.

California is a lot different now than it was in 2004.

And Bush only lost the Hispanic vote by 9% in 2004.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Ebsy on May 26, 2016, 01:48:22 am
This poll will prove very amusing.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: IceSpear on May 26, 2016, 05:58:15 am
Oh, this poll is confirmed total junk. Obama only has a 52-46 approval rating in it. Nationally he is at 49-48.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Virginiá on May 26, 2016, 12:23:37 pm
OK, this has to be Sanders supporters playing coy, right?  Because this is 2 CA polls in a row with Clinton at half Obama's margin while it looks just like 2012 most everywhere else.  Or maybe it really is tied nationally because Clinton is only winning CA/IL/NY/NJ/MA by 10 while getting Obama 2012 numbers or better everywhere else?  If so, Trump is Tilden-level screwed in the EC...

The 55+ and to a much lesser degree, the 35 - 64 age groups look about what would be expected for a regular Republican in California. The 55+ age group is the primary Republican holdouts from California's days as a red state, just like other red-to-blue states that trended in the past generation.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Sbane on May 26, 2016, 09:04:30 pm
PPIC sucks at polling. They think California is stuck in 1998.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Knives on May 26, 2016, 09:24:35 pm
California is also an enormous state, it's hard to provide an accurate image of the electorate when samples aren't big.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Ebsy on May 26, 2016, 10:43:41 pm
The final PPIC poll before the 2012 election was Obama +12. He won by 23 points.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: StatesPoll on May 26, 2016, 11:50:47 pm
The final PPIC poll before the 2012 election was Obama +12. He won by 23 points.

Because that final PPIC Poll surveyed before hurricane sandy
(10/14-10/21. CA: Obama 53 | ROmney 41 )

At that time National Poll number was
                                                                                    Romney vs  Obama
WashTimes/JZ Analytics*   10/18 - 10/20   800 LV   3.5   50         47   
CBS News                           10/17 - 10/20   790 LV   4.0   48         46   
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl           10/17 - 10/20   816 LV   3.4   47         47   

After Sandy, California
Obama:  53%(PPIC, 10/14-10/21) -> Sandy -> 60%(Final results)
Romney: 41%(PPIC, 10/14-10/21) -> Sandy -> 37%(Final results)

Hillary isn't Obama, TRUMP isn't Romney.
So, There is nothing to feel strange of CA Poll score is 49-39


 


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Seriously? on May 27, 2016, 12:26:37 am
Junk. If this were accurate, Trump would be winning in a landslide nationally.
Wow. I actually agree with IceSpear on something.

Hillary! would be in YUUUUGE trouble nationally if she were only +10 in the People's Socialist Republic of California.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: Sir Mohamed on May 27, 2016, 08:26:29 am
Junk poll, Hillary will win CA with ~65%.


Title: Re: CA - PPIC: Clinton + 10
Post by: heatcharger on May 27, 2016, 04:25:48 pm
The final PPIC poll before the 2012 election was Obama +12. He won by 23 points.
Because that final PPIC Poll surveyed before hurricane sandy

We need to dispel with this fiction that Hurricane Sandy magically made California, a state not even affected by the storm, swing by 11 points.