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Title: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on June 02, 2016, 12:07:27 AM http://www.sfgate.com/politics/article/Field-Poll-finds-Clinton-s-California-lead-down-7958398.php
The Field Poll finds a dead heat in California heading into Tuesday's Democratic Primary. Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 02, 2016, 12:17:01 AM Pretty clear this is going to be a nailbiter now. My Clinton +3 prediction should be quite accurate.
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Xing on June 02, 2016, 12:22:59 AM Field did have the race pretty close two months ago (Clinton +6). Still, it looks like it really could be close. I'm still guessing Clinton by mid-high single digits for now, but if more polls continue to show a near tie, we might actually be in for a photo finish.
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort on June 02, 2016, 12:23:57 AM Field had Clinton +6 at the beginning of April, now Clinton +2 now at the beginning of June. Pretty consistent.
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Tender Branson on June 02, 2016, 12:27:24 AM Winning CA would probably be a conciliatory end of this primary season for us Bernie supporters.
Although I doubt he'll actually win it after Jerry Brown's endorsement for Hillary ... My prediction: 54-46 Hillary. Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Eraserhead on June 02, 2016, 12:42:07 AM Hot Damn. Go Bernie! I don't even care if I lose money on this.
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Sbane on June 02, 2016, 01:49:19 AM Perhaps this will be closer than we thought. I have a lot of respect for the Field poll but there is a chance they are missing voters who may not speak English. Also who are the undecideds? What percentage of Asians are "undecided"?
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Ronnie on June 02, 2016, 03:05:10 AM I was planning on studying for finals, but it looks like I have to vote for Hillary now.
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: I spent the winter writing songs about getting better on June 02, 2016, 08:42:31 AM 12 undecided? This late?
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Sbane on June 02, 2016, 10:01:36 AM 12 undecided? This late? http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf 15% of those who have already voted are undecided..... Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: This account no longer in use. on June 02, 2016, 10:02:42 AM UNSKEW
N S K E W Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 02, 2016, 10:16:28 AM 12 undecided? This late? http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf 15% of those who have already voted are undecided..... WTF is wrong with these people? Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 02, 2016, 12:08:15 PM Interestingly enough, TRUMP is only getting 60% of the R primary vote in this poll. There are 9% undecided though, that should break heavily for him.
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Sbane on June 02, 2016, 12:30:22 PM 12 undecided? This late? http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf 15% of those who have already voted are undecided..... WTF is wrong with these people? Mostly people who don't want to disclose who they are voting for. Will probably be most prevalent among immigrants.... Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Hermit For Peace on June 02, 2016, 03:52:36 PM If she doesn't "win" California she'll still win. She'll still be way ahead of Bernie in delegates.
I like that. Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Maxwell on June 02, 2016, 03:56:36 PM Her not winning California makes this whole thing an ugly mess, though.
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Oak Hills on June 02, 2016, 06:34:35 PM 12 undecided? This late? http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf 15% of those who have already voted are undecided..... WTF is wrong with these people? Mostly people who don't want to disclose who they are voting for. Will probably be most prevalent among immigrants.... Then why would they agree to participate in the poll? Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Sbane on June 03, 2016, 12:37:00 AM 12 undecided? This late? http://field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2537.pdf 15% of those who have already voted are undecided..... WTF is wrong with these people? Mostly people who don't want to disclose who they are voting for. Will probably be most prevalent among immigrants.... Then why would they agree to participate in the poll? Excellent point. Why would they then refuse to disclose who they voted for? Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: IceSpear on June 03, 2016, 09:40:57 AM Pretty clear this is going to be a nailbiter now. My Clinton +3 prediction should be quite accurate. It very well may end up being tight, but you'd think we would've learned by now it's not a rare occurence for primary polls to be significantly off the mark. Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: IceSpear on June 03, 2016, 09:41:22 AM Her not winning California makes this whole thing an ugly mess, though. In the same way Obama losing South Dakota made things an ugly mess. Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: tallguy23 on June 03, 2016, 08:05:51 PM I think it'll be Clinton with 52%.
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: IceSpear on June 08, 2016, 09:36:19 AM Yet another gold standard bites the dust, joining Selzer and Marquette. Man, this cycle has not been friendly to the pollsters.
Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: IceSpear on June 08, 2016, 09:38:54 AM Pretty clear this is going to be a nailbiter now. My Clinton +3 prediction should be quite accurate. It very well may end up being tight, but you'd think we would've learned by now it's not a rare occurence for primary polls to be significantly off the mark. Lesson taught again. :P Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: morgieb on June 08, 2016, 09:42:26 AM Yet another gold standard bites the dust, joining Selzer and Marquette. Man, this cycle has not been friendly to the pollsters. Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: IceSpear on June 08, 2016, 09:44:47 AM Yet another gold standard bites the dust, joining Selzer and Marquette. Man, this cycle has not been friendly to the pollsters. They did well on the GOP side (Cruz +10) but on the Dem side they had Sanders +4. Selzer was the opposite. They did fairly well on the Dem side (Clinton +3, which was very good if you assume O'Malley voters broke heavily for Sanders when he failed viability, which they did according to all information) but bombed the GOP side (Trump +5) Title: Re: CA - Field: Clinton - 45 Sanders - 43 Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on June 08, 2016, 12:31:40 PM What a lousy poll.
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