Talk Elections

Backtracking.

Gravis, Utah.
Georgia, PPP.
Florida, ARG.
Michigan, Glengariff.

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White is for ties. Even leads in the twenties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.


Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

New. Quinnipiac, Connecticut:

Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Donald Trump (R): 36%
Gary Johnson (L): 6%
Jill Stein (G): 3%

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White is for ties. Even leads in the twenties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.


Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

More backtracking:

North Carolina, PPP:

Donald Trump (R): 43%
Hillary Clinton (D): 41%
Gary Johnson (L): 3%
Jill Stein (G): 2%

Oklahoma, -Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates

Trump 48%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 6%
Undecided 18%

New Mexico
http://nmpoliticalreport.com/44100/clinton-leads-in-nm-in-three-way-race/

Clinton: 41%
Trump: 33%
Johnson: 14%

This is a three-way poll, and it shows how far behind Donald Trump will be in New Mexico.

Virginia, Gravis Marketing:

Clinton 44
Trump 38
Johnson 6

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/virginia-election-poll052016/

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White is for ties. Even leads in the twenties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.


Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)




Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.   

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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Solely to illustrate what a tie and a Libertarian lead, and decisive leads for either Clinton or Trump will  look like I will show the unlikely scenario of a tie in North Dakota between Clinton and Trump (with Johnson getting 16) and a Libertarian lead in South Dakota in which Clinton is in second place with 44L, 32D, 22R .  In this case the second-place candidate is identified by party and raw number. Also preposterously suggesting  that Hillary Clinton  will get 52% of the vote in Nebraska and that Trump will get more 52% of the vote in Minnesota... the map below is an illustration and not a prediction of reality...

Margin-based plan. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader.

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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Are we already ignoring the FL PPP poll?

No.

Pennsylvania, PPP

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/pennsylvania-close-sanders-supporter-unity-would-make-it-not-close.html
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_PA_60816.pdf

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Stein 3

Democrats lead a generic ballot question for President 45/41

Only 72% of Sanders supporters support Clinton. If Clinton got half of them, her lead over Trump head to head would be 47-40.

Hillary Clinton (D): 47%
Donald Trump (R): 35%
Gary Johnson (L): 7%
Undecided: 12%

Clinton is leading 67-17 in Chicago and 47-35 in suburban Cook County. Trump, however, is ahead 42-38 in the suburban collar counties and leads by ten points, 45-35, among Downstate voters

http://www.rebootillinois.com/2016/06/10/featured-articles/richmiller/capitol-fax-poll-voters-blame-michael-madigan-for-budget-mess/59655/




Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.  

()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Utah, SurveyUSA


Clinton: 35
Trump: 35
Johnson: 13

https://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/315450242/Salt-Lake-Tribune-President-Poll


Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.  

()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Johnson strength map as of now:

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
under 3: 30

()



(Hope you're okay with me using your thread for this, pbrower. If you aren't, just tell me.

I strongly approve.

Ironically I may have to close the thread in which I show the binary choice between Clinton and Trump. Support for the Libertarian ticket is NOT academic. The two Libertarian nominees for President and Vice-President have two of the greatest strengths that I have seen in any Third-Party candidacy in my lifetime (which does not include the racist Thurmond campaign of 1948) -- two nominees with elective records in offices whence Presidents come from.

There's much discontent with both Parties, and I can imagine many Republicans seeing Johnson and Weld as closer to their political orthodoxy than is The Donald. This is not a racist ticket that might win some states in a region yet get practically no support elsewhere.  So for people who can stomach neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton -- here is the first Third Party nominee since Robert LaFollette in 1924 to win any electoral votes without being a racist secession from a major Party.

But even if Johnson/Weld does not win any electoral votes, the Libertarians can draw enough votes away from the Republican ticket to swing some states. (To a lesser extent, so could Jill Stein.

Let us remember that in 2008 such happened in Missouri and North Carolina. The right-wing Libertarian Party nominee Bob Barr won enough votes to keep John McCain from winning North Carolina, and the left-wing Green Party nominee Ralph Nader won enough votes in Missouri to keep Barack Obama from winning Missouri.  McCain and Barr nominees won more votes than Obama and Nader in North Carolina, and Obama and Nader won more votes than McCain and Barr in Missouri. It mattered little that year.

Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.  

Change in the display: removing the letter indicating which party nominee has the lead. The color should make that obvious. I am also replacing the comma with a slash.

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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

States that I most want to see polled now for this map:

Ohio
Iowa
Colorado
Arizona
New Hampshire
Nevada
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Nebraska
Missouri

PPP gives us a poll of Virginia this week.

Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway.  


California, University of Southern  California;  Los Angeles Times

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-california-exit-poll-20160613-snap-story.html

Clinton: 61
Trump: 31

If Hillary Clinton is this far ahead in California, the Johnson vote in California will be of at most arcane interest.  


Virginia, PPP

48-45 without third parties
42-39 with third parties (I believe Gary Johnson is at 9%)

This was reported on the Rachel Maddow show and PPP says they will put out the PDF of the full poll tomorrow

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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Johnson strength map including the California poll - we can assume he's in the "2-3" category here:

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20

()

Virginia update because I am using it elsewhere:

Johnson strength map including the Virginia PPP poll and Illinois poll - he's at 6% in both, meaning no change.

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20

()

Two westerly states. No suggestion of how many would vote for Gary Johnson, but I would expect substantial numbers in both states.

Arizona (private poll) -- Trump 42, Clinton 39.

Washington, PPP -- Clinton 49, Trump 37.

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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)








[/quote]

States that I would love to see polled:

Three-way (I see this Presidential race as three-way now):

Iowa
Ohio
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Oregon
Colorado
Nevada
Nebraska
Kansas
New Hampshire
Montana
Missouri
Arizona
Indiana

Not that I trust any polls from these two states:

Alaska
Texas

Johnson strength map

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

()

I like this. I'm going with it. Thank you.

Quinnipiac FLOP (FLorida-Ohio-Pennsylvania):

Florida: Clinton 42%, Trump 36%, Johnson 7%, Stein 3%
Ohio: Clinton 38%, Trump 36%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 39%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 4%


https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2359
Survey conducted by Dan Jones & Associates June 8-17, 2016. 614 registered Utah voters. Margin of error +/- 3.95%

36% Trump
27% Clinton
10% Johnson
  2% Stein

http://utahpolicy.com/index.php/features/today-at-utah-policy/9909-poll-donald-trump-has-a-nine-point-lead-on-hillary-clinton-in-utah

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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Johnson strength map

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

()


Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4, UT 2

Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4

Stein strength map (why not?)

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Using yellow for the Green Party?

Switched to lavender.

Yeah, I would make Stein green and Johnson yellow. I know yellow doesn't show up that well in text, but you can use gold instead.

New poll for Arizona:

Conducted 6/20, MOE +/- 3.01%

Clinton 46.5%
Trump 42.2%
Third party candidate 5.8%

http://email.connectstrategic.com/t/j-2A45CA0283AA87B8

1. I think that the third-party nominees are going to get nearly 10% of the vote in Arizona, and that will more hurt Trump than Clinton.

2. Decimals, which are suspect.

3. Not defined as "Registered Voters" or "Likely Voters". But who knows what a "likely voter" will be in November?

4. Arizona going to Hillary Clinton would indicate that she has also won  Colorado and Nevada.

5. I've seen some other polls that violate the conventional wisdom about some other states, most notably Utah and Kansas -- all to the benefit of Hillary Clinton.

6. Since 1948, the strongest performance for a Democratic nominee for President in raw vote percentage was LBJ, who barely lost Arizona (50.45-49.45%) to Favorite Son Barry Goldwater. Bill Clinton won in  1996, but with Ross Perot picking off far more R than D votes.  Bill Clinton got 46.52% of the vote. Barack Obama got just under 45% of the popular vote in Arizona, which is historically good for a Democrat in Arizona. But should there be a Trump collapse, then Arizona does go D.

7. Do you fully trust this poll? I don't. Arizona will be an interesting state to poll this year. So will be Kansas.

Texas, by a pollster of which I have never heard:

37% Donald Trump (R)
30% Hillary Clinton (D)
3% Gary Johnson (L)

http://www.lelandbeatty.com/uploads/1/4/2/1/14214393/txg16beattypollresultsfinalresults.pdf


I would expect a libertarian to do very well in Texas.

North Carolina by a pollster that we know very well (PPP):

Head to Head:
Trump - 48%
Clinton - 46%

4 Person Race:
Clinton - 43%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 2%
Undecided - 7%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/06/presidential-race-knotted-in-nc-senate-race-close.html

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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Johnson strength map now with crappy Texas poll

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

()

Johnson strength map now with North Carolina poll

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Maine, U-New Hampshire... It's complicated.

Hillary Clinton is up 7 overall in the state but nearly tied in the Second Congressional District.
Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in a new Maine poll from the Portland Press Herald, but both are deeply unpopular and Trump is within striking distance in the state’s northern half.

The poll doesn’t tell us much new about the 2016 race for the White House in Maine: Public sentiment, as measured by the new poll, barely moved since another March poll, but while the Democrat should be favored, Trump can’t be counted out to win at least one of the state’s four Electoral College votes.

Maine allocates two Electoral College votes to the overall winner and one each for the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. A candidate who loses Maine’s overall vote could walk away with one Electoral College vote if he or she garnered a majority in one of the two congressional districts although that has never happened.

In the more rural and conservative 2nd Congressional District, it appears Trump has an opening this year.

Statewide, Clinton received 42 percent of support to Trump’s 35 percent in the poll of more than 609 Mainers. Another 19 percent said they’d vote for another candidate and 4 percent were undecided.

Statewide:


Clinton 42
Trump 35
Other 19
Undecided 4

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2016/06/25/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-maine-but-race-tied-in-2nd-district/

Arkansas, Hendrix College/Talk Business

A new survey among frequent Arkansas general election voters finds Republican presumptive Presidential nominee Donald Trump with an 11-point lead over Democratic presumptive Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

The latest poll from Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College was conducted on Tuesday, June 21, 2016 among 751 Arkansas voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.

Survey respondents were asked:

Q: If the 2016 election were held today and your choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

36%   Hillary Clinton
47%   Donald Trump
8%     Gary Johnson
9%     Don’t Know

Additionally, survey respondents were asked if their Presidential selections were based on support for a candidate or in opposition to a candidate.

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/06/tbp-hendrix-poll-trump-holds-lead-over-clinton-in-arkansas/

Weak in contrast to how Arkansas rejected Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.


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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4 ME:D7.??;4




Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Maine, U-New Hampshire... It's complicated.

Hillary Clinton is up 7 overall in the state but nearly tied in the Second Congressional District.
Democratic presumptive presidential nominee Hillary Clinton led Republican Donald Trump in a new Maine poll from the Portland Press Herald, but both are deeply unpopular and Trump is within striking distance in the state’s northern half.

The poll doesn’t tell us much new about the 2016 race for the White House in Maine: Public sentiment, as measured by the new poll, barely moved since another March poll, but while the Democrat should be favored, Trump can’t be counted out to win at least one of the state’s four Electoral College votes.

Maine allocates two Electoral College votes to the overall winner and one each for the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district. A candidate who loses Maine’s overall vote could walk away with one Electoral College vote if he or she garnered a majority in one of the two congressional districts although that has never happened.

In the more rural and conservative 2nd Congressional District, it appears Trump has an opening this year.

Statewide, Clinton received 42 percent of support to Trump’s 35 percent in the poll of more than 609 Mainers. Another 19 percent said they’d vote for another candidate and 4 percent were undecided.

Statewide:


Clinton 42
Trump 35
Other 19
Undecided 4

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2016/06/25/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-maine-but-race-tied-in-2nd-district/

Arkansas, Hendrix College/Talk Business

A new survey among frequent Arkansas general election voters finds Republican presumptive Presidential nominee Donald Trump with an 11-point lead over Democratic presumptive Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.

The latest poll from Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College was conducted on Tuesday, June 21, 2016 among 751 Arkansas voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.6%.

Survey respondents were asked:

Q: If the 2016 election were held today and your choices were Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and Libertarian Gary Johnson, for whom would you vote?

36%   Hillary Clinton
47%   Donald Trump
8%     Gary Johnson
9%     Don’t Know

Additionally, survey respondents were asked if their Presidential selections were based on support for a candidate or in opposition to a candidate.

http://talkbusiness.net/2016/06/tbp-hendrix-poll-trump-holds-lead-over-clinton-in-arkansas/

Weak in contrast to the rejection that Arkansas showed for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012.




Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

()

Three-way race:


()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4 ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, CBS/YouGov. Gold mine.

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Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

()



Three-way race:


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White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4 ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)
[/quote]

Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4

Add or replace: CO 1 FL 1 NC 1 WI 2

Stein strength map (why not?)

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Texas, UT-Austin

Trump 39
Clinton 32
Johnson 7
Other 14
Don't know 8

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/university-texas-texas-politics-project-poll-shows-trump-leading-clinton-amidst-signs-disunity

Not that I trust any Texas poll due to the built-in difficulties of polling the state. The 8% lead is very weak.  In recent years Texas suburbs have been very strongly Republican. What distinguishes these suburbs from older suburbs of Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, and even San Francisco is that Texas suburbs are newer and have yet to have the great costs of maintenance that one associates with older infrastructure. Demolition of tract houses with their replacement by apartment complexes, a commonplace act with 70-year-old tract houses at their useful lives (those are post-WWII houses associated with returning war veterans, and those houses are now obsolete if not in poor shape) implies needs for the improvement of highways and sewers and expansion of waste-treatment facilities. Texas suburbs do not yet have those problems, so right-wing pols can still flourish there. See also Georgia and Arizona.

 Donald Trump is the worst cultural match for President that the Republicans have offered or will offer Texas since at least Gerald Ford in 1976. Ford lost that year to Jimmy Carter. In the event of a collapse of the Trump campaign that allows Texas to go Democratic, Hillary Clinton will have about 450 electoral votes.

http://www.politico.com/states/new-jersey/story/2016/06/poll-clinton-has-huge-lead-over-trump-in-nj-103338
http://view2.fdu.edu/publicmind/2016/160629/

Clinton 52
Trump 31

Clinton 44
Trump 32
Johnson 9

Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear




()



Three-way race:


()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4 ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)


Pennsylvania 246
New Hampshire 250
Iowa 256
Nevada 262
Colorado 271
ME-02  272
Virginia 285
Ohio 313
Florida 332
North Carolina 347
Arizona 359
NE-02 360
Missouri 370
Indiana 381
Georgia 396
Kansas 402
NE-01 403
South Carolina 412
Texas 450

()
[/quote]

Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear




()



Three-way race:


()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4 ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)


Pennsylvania 246
New Hampshire 250
Iowa 256
Nevada 262
Colorado 271
ME-02  272
Virginia 285
Ohio 313
Florida 332
North Carolina 347
Arizona 359
NE-02 360
Missouri 370
Indiana 381
Georgia 396
Kansas 402
NE-01 403
South Carolina 412
Texas 450

[/quote]

California, Field Poll:

()

http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article88085407.html

When Gary Johnson is added to the binary choice, he picks up as more people (2%) leaning toward  Clinton (8%) as toward  Trump (2%) in the binary choice. This is unusual, but possible, and it could be unique to California.  Silicon Valley?

...The closest analogue to California in a three-way race is 1996, when Hillary's husband won 51% of the California vote, Bob Dole got 38%, and Ross Perot got 7%. That was consistent with Bill Clinton getting just over 49% of the popular vote, Dole got just under 41% of the vote, and Perot got slightly over 8% of the vote nationwide. Bill Clinton got 379 electoral votes in 1996, the largest number of electoral votes that any Democrat has won since 1964


Oregon

Clinton 46
Trump 32
Undecided 22

This is actually a state where Johnson and Stein combined can cleave off about 10%

https://icitizen.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/OR-Weighted-Tabs-Public-1.pdf

Vermont:

Hillary Clinton (D): 39%
Donald Trump (R): 24%
Gary Johnson (L): 10%
Other: 12%

http://vtdigger.org/2016/07/07/poll-clinton-has-15-point-edge-over-trump-in-vermont/

Vermont's Favorite Son won't be on the November ballot.


Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()



Three-way race:


()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)


Pennsylvania 246
New Hampshire 250
Iowa 256
Nevada 262
Colorado 271
ME-02  272
Virginia 285
Ohio 313
Florida 332
North Carolina 347
Arizona 359
NE-02 360
Missouri 370
Indiana 381
Georgia 396
Kansas 402
NE-01 403
South Carolina 412
Texas 450

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/monmouth-university-24854

Nevada

Clinton 45
Trump 41
Johnson 5
Undecided 4
None 4

Donald Trump is not going to win Nevada.

CO -- Harper

45% Clinton
38% Trump
14% Someone else
4% Not sure

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/article/2596243


Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()



Three-way race:


()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Note my re-ordering of the states.

Nevada 232
Pennsylvania 238
New Hampshire 258
Iowa 262
Colorado 271
ME-02  272
Virginia 285
Ohio 303
Florida 332
North Carolina 347
Arizona 359
NE-02 360
Missouri 370
Indiana 381
Georgia 396
Kansas 402
NE-01 403
South Carolina 412
Texas 450

Stein: CO 1 CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4, WI 2

Add or replace: IA 1

Stein strength map (why not?)

()

Your EV totals count Fl as 19 not 29

ETA: but Ohio as 28 instead of 18 so the total works

Quinnipiac, FL. OH, PA:

4-way:

Florida
Trump 41%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 4%

Ohio
Trump 37%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 6%

Pennsylvania
Trump 40%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

Marist, IA, OH, PA

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/753273220200030208
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-or-even-midwest-battlegrounds-n608651

OH
Clinton 39
Trump 39

Clinton 38
Trump 35
Johnson 9
Stein 3

IA
Clinton 42
Trump 39

Clinton 37
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 36

Clinton 43
Trump 35
Johnson 8
Stein 2

Averaging Marist and Quinnipiac in Ohio and Pennsylvania and an extant poll in Iowa.

July 5-10, MOE +/-3.4%


Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()

Even with these leads (Q does not push voters)... Donald Trump is more likely to be close to his ceiling in most of these states.  



Three-way race:


()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Note my re-ordering of the states.

Nevada 232
Pennsylvania 238
New Hampshire 258
Iowa 262
Colorado 271
ME-02  272
Virginia 285
Ohio 303
Florida 332
North Carolina 347
Arizona 359
NE-02 360
Missouri 370
Indiana 381
Georgia 396
Kansas 402
NE-01 403
South Carolina 412
Texas 450

Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4

Add or replace: VA 4

Stein strength map (why not?)

()

Quinnipiac, FL. OH, PA:

4-way:

Florida
Trump 41%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 4%

Ohio
Trump 37%
Clinton 36%
Johnson 7%
Stein 6%

Pennsylvania
Trump 40%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

Marist, IA, OH, PA

https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/753273220200030208
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-or-even-midwest-battlegrounds-n608651

OH
Clinton 39
Trump 39

Clinton 38
Trump 35
Johnson 9
Stein 3

IA
Clinton 42
Trump 39

Clinton 37
Trump 37
Johnson 7
Stein 4

PA
Clinton 45
Trump 36

Clinton 43
Trump 35
Johnson 8
Stein 2

Averaging Marist and Quinnipiac in Ohio and Pennsylvania and an extant poll in Iowa with a Gravis poll. .

July 5-10, MOE +/-3.4%


Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()

Even with these leads (Q does not push voters)... Donald Trump is more likely to be close to his ceiling in most of these states.  



Three-way race:


()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Note my re-ordering of the states.

Nevada 232
Pennsylvania 238
New Hampshire 258
Iowa 262
Colorado 271
ME-02  272
Virginia 285
Ohio 303
Florida 332
North Carolina 347
Arizona 359
NE-02 360
Missouri 370
Indiana 381
Georgia 396
Kansas 402
NE-01 403
South Carolina 412
Texas 450

Third party trial heats (FoX News):

Virginia

Clinton 39
Trump 34
Johnson 10
Stein 4

Colorado

Clinton 37
Trump 28!!!!!!
Johnson 13
Stein 6

WI -- Marquette University Law School:

July 7 - July 10

Registered Voters

Clinton 43% (+1 since June)
Trump 37% (+2 since June)

Likely Voters

Clinton 45% (-1 since June)
Trump 41% (+4 since June)

4 Way Race Registered

Clinton 40%
Trump 33%
Johnson 10%
Stein 4%

4 Way Race Likely Voters

Clinton 43%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%

...Marquette University Law School has begun to recognize that the 2012 Presidential election is now a three-way race.  Registered gives Hillary Clinton a 7% lead; likely gives a 6% lead. Rounding to the nearer even number.

Kansas, SurveyUSA. If you didn't like the Zogby poll, then all you needed do was wait.  

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=7a998d53-af1c-4a34-996c-6de020dea785&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Trump 47
Clinton 36
Johnson 8
Undecided 9

MO - PPP


Missouri, PPP:

Trump 46 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 7 - Stein 1
Trump 49 -  Clinton 37 (Parties mentioned)
Obama approval 39%
Preference between Obama and Trump  -- 42% Obama, 50% Trump 

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf

Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()

Even with these leads (Q does not push voters)... Donald Trump is more likely to be close to his ceiling in most of these states.  



Three-way race:


()


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner. I am averaging for North Carolina. I do not accept the St. Leo University poll that shows Hillary Clinton up 15 on Donald Trump in Florida.  

Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Note my re-ordering of the states.

Nevada 232
Pennsylvania 238
New Hampshire 258
Iowa 262
Colorado 271
ME-02  272
Virginia 285
Ohio 303
Florida 332
North Carolina 347
Arizona 359
NE-02 360
Missouri 370
Indiana 381
Georgia 396
Kansas 402
NE-01 403
South Carolina 412
Texas 450

With the wild fluctuations in polling this estimate is now pointless.

Florida -- Greenberg-Quinlan-Rasler

Clinton 45
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Other 2
Undecided 7

Missouri, PPP:

Trump 46 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 7 - Stein 1
Trump 49 -  Clinton 37 (Parties mentioned)
Obama approval 39%
Preference between Obama and Trump  -- 42% Obama, 50% Trump  

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf

Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()

Even with these leads (Q does not push voters)... Donald Trump is more likely to be close to his ceiling in most of these states.  



Three-way race:


()


Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Fixed IA on strength map


()

Florida -- Greenberg-Quinlan-Rasler

Clinton 45
Trump 40
Johnson 6
Other 2
Undecided 7

Missouri, PPP:

Trump 46 - Clinton 36 - Johnson 7 - Stein 1
Trump 49 -  Clinton 37 (Parties mentioned)
Obama approval 39%
Preference between Obama and Trump  -- 42% Obama, 50% Trump  

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_Missouri_71516.pdf

Illinois:

The Illinois Poll
Statewide poll of 1200 likely Illinois voters conducted
Victory Research

July 14-16, 2016. Margin of error 2.83%

312-388-1782

www.illinoispolitics.webs.net@ilpollster

Clinton 50.9  Trump 34.3  Johnson 6.8 Stein 3.6
Stein



Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()

Even with these leads (Q does not push voters)... Donald Trump is more likely to be close to his ceiling in most of these states.  



Three-way race:


()


Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Worthless, Michigan.

Clinton - 34
Trump - 29
Johnson - 3
Stein - 2
Undecided - 23
http://mrgmi.com/2016/07/michigan-poll-trump-trails-clinton-by-five-percent-heading-into-gop-convention/

"Idaho Voters Favor Trump over Clinton "

601 LV

Trump (R): 44%
Clinton (D): 23%
Johnson (L): 5%
Stein (G): 3%
Undecided/Someone Else: 21%

http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/1145-poll-idaho-voters-favor-trump-over-clinton

Kansas, Fort Hays State:


487 LV, July 11-21:

44% Trump
27% Clinton
  7% Johnson
  6% Others
16% Undecided

PDF Link

http://cjonline.com/news/2016-07-24/poll-huelskamp-marshall-tied-trump-leads-clinton-kansas


Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()

Even with these leads (Q does not push voters)... Donald Trump is more likely to be close to his ceiling in most of these states.  



Three-way race:


()


Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

That was a poll of only the 4th CD of Utah...

Error recognized, troublesome post deleted. Thank you.

Ohio, Suffolk.

44-44 Clinton/Trump

New Hampshire, U-New Hampshire, WMUR-TV (ABC 9)

43-39-5-1 Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein

2-way
Hillary Clinton (D): 39%
Donald Trump (R): 37%

4-way
Hillary Clinton (D): 37%
Donald Trump (R): 37%
Johnson 10%
Stein 5%

Clinton absolutely crushes Trump among NH women (47%-26%). He leads 48%-31% among men, a gender gap of 38 points!

B-b-b-but I thought a Trump/Pence ticket could appeal to White NH women?!

https://cola.unh.edu/sites/cola.unh.edu/files/research_publications/gsp2016_summer_presrace072116.pdf

Considering that the Republicans are monopolizing the coverage this week, this is very good for Hillary Clinton.

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()

Even with these leads (Q does not push voters)... Donald Trump is more likely to be close to his ceiling in most of these states.  



Three-way race:


()


Small states and districts in area: CT: D5,6;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, NH 5, OH 1, PA 4, VA 4

Add or replace: GA 3, MA 3

Stein strength map (why not?) -- same intensity of color as for Johnson



()

Alabama, two-way race. Johnson irrelevant if Trump is over 50%.

Donald Trump 57%
Hillary Clinton 33%

http://wkrg.com/2016/07/21/trump-wins-alabama-but-some-supporters-may-not-like-him/

Georgia, WSB-TV (ABC-2, Atlanta), rk Communications:

http://www.wsbtv.com/news/politics/trump-hillary-poll/411369450

Trump - 46
Clinton - 44
Johnson - 5
Stein - 3

Georgia is a legitimate swing state this year.

Missouri may not be:

Missouri, SurveyUSA, KSDK-TV (NBC-5, St. Louis)

()

We get few polls of Massachusetts, which will definitely not be a swing state:

49% Clinton
31% Trump
  4% Johnson
  3% Stein

http://consumerenergyalliance.org/2016/06/energy-costs-infrastructure-important-bay-staters


Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()




Three-way race:


()


Small states and districts in area:
CT: D5,6;4 MA: D14,4;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)

Missouri may not be:

Missouri, SurveyUSA, KSDK-TV (NBC-5, St. Louis)

()


But Mason-Dixon has a poll of Missouri and suggests this:

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/trump-clinton-in-virtual-tie-in-missouri/article_ecbca03a-ea36-5bef-bf8c-fcb817cc7c31.html

http://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/stltoday.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/e/a9/ea922fa3-95f2-55e3-a1df-5ce1ab4e2a2f/579a6a9a2b00d.pdf.pdf

Clinton 41
Trump 40
Johnson 9
Stein 1

Poll was conducted from July 23-24. 625 LV, Mason-Dixon. 


I will need to average these, as they come from the same week.


That's Trump 43.5, Clinton 39, Johnson 9.5 Rounding to the even number for a half, that's 44-39, 10 Figuring that "likely voters" are whiter and older, such suggests that Missouri will be closer than "my" average. The PPP poll is older and it does not figure in, thank you. 

Back to swing status for Missouri.





Johnson support:

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear



()




Three-way race:


()


Small states and districts in area:
CT: D5,6;4 MA: D14,4;4
ME: D7,??;4  ME-01 (est) D14,??;6 ME-02 R2,??;4
NJ D9,12;4
VT D15,10,3

Clinton (D)
Trump (R)
Johnson (L)


[/quote]

This is my last post on this thread, as I am transferring this data to another thread.  I am also locking this thread when I have my first completed post on the new thread of post-convention polling.  I also intend to show the binary polling in the same new thread.