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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on June 11, 2016, 11:02:42 pm



Title: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Tender Branson on June 11, 2016, 11:02:42 pm
Result:

https://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/315450242/Salt-Lake-Tribune-President-Poll


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Ebsy on June 11, 2016, 11:06:06 pm
lmao

Clinton: 35
Trump: 35
Johnson: 13


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: psychprofessor on June 11, 2016, 11:08:29 pm
Oh my, tied at 35.

I love what Lee Carrillo had to say:

"Like most people, I think I'm pretty dismayed by the candidates, but I think Hillary Clinton is probably going to be a more effective president. But I don't like either one of them," she said. "I think [Trump] is practically a maniac. Everyone talks about, 'Oh, he's so smart with money,' or whatever. I just think he has no qualifications for president, and I haven't liked one single thing I heard him say."


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on June 11, 2016, 11:11:08 pm
And the socialist is leading!

Sanders: 37
Trump: 35
Johnson: 12

Favorable numbers for the frontrunners are virtually identical:

Clinton: 21/67
Trump: 20/65


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Ebsy on June 11, 2016, 11:13:46 pm
The swing in Utah in 2016 is going to be hysterical.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Panda Express on June 11, 2016, 11:22:21 pm
So that's three different polling companies that have shown Utah competitive.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Xing on June 11, 2016, 11:33:04 pm
Utah might end up like North Dakota in 2008. Polling could continue to show a close race, and while Trump will almost certainly still win in the end, his margin might be very underwhelming.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: RJEvans on June 11, 2016, 11:35:33 pm
I'm telling you, if Clinton is leading comfortably by October and UT is still in play, drop a million or two and try to make a statement to the country by having a Democrat (the most hated Democrat) win one of the most conservative states in the union.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: wifikitten on June 11, 2016, 11:48:25 pm
With 71% of voters minds made up, this is gonna be very interesting.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Holmes on June 11, 2016, 11:53:48 pm
I don't know if dropping $1-2 million into Utah in October is really the smartest move, unless things look really locked up by then and team Hillary is just sitting on piles of money. The only downballot Democrat that would help is Doug Owens, and he seems pretty good right now anyway. Would probably be best to dump that sort of money in states like North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio, that money can really help Democrats in Senate races there.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2016, 12:34:08 am
The UT situation reminds me of the Austrian Presidential election results in the conservative states of Tyrol and Vorarlberg:

In the 1986 presidential election (and in virtually all others), they voted for the conservative candidate Kurt Waldheim with 69% and 71%.

But in the 2016 election, they voted for the left-wing/Green candidate Van der Bellen with 51% and 59%.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Lean Branson on June 12, 2016, 12:42:37 am
Amazing. If Romney and Trump keep wailing on each other I think Clinton might be able to barely eke this one out.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Maxwell on June 12, 2016, 12:45:02 am
I don't know if dropping $1-2 million into Utah in October is really the smartest move, unless things look really locked up by then and team Hillary is just sitting on piles of money. The only downballot Democrat that would help is Doug Owens, and he seems pretty good right now anyway. Would probably be best to dump that sort of money in states like North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio, that money can really help Democrats in Senate races there.

Maybe do a small buy in the Republican primary race promoting Johnson - he only leads the Democrat in the race by 13, as opposed to Governor Herbert leading the Democrat by nearly 30.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Tender Branson on June 12, 2016, 12:47:52 am
I also find it interesting that Hillary polls 10% better than Obama in 2012, while she only has a favourable rating of 20% in the state ...

Probably some cross-over Romney-Mormons or additional Latino-voters with a strong hatred of Trump.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 12, 2016, 01:11:14 am
#RickGrimesVindicated


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Arch on June 12, 2016, 01:13:05 am
The bigger question here is, how D is Arizona right now with the Mormon and Hispanic backlash?


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Anonymous on June 12, 2016, 01:15:21 am
The bigger question here is, how D is Arizona right now with the Mormon and Hispanic backlash?

If these polls in Utah continue to show a close race, Arizona will certainly be in play. This is a state that she won twice, so she could do better with whites than Obama, and I think Arizona has some Jews, too, that will almost assuredly vote for her. If Trumpkin manages to win the state though, I think it'll be less than 5 points. 


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: ElectionsGuy on June 12, 2016, 01:20:17 am
The bigger question here is, how D is Arizona right now with the Mormon and Hispanic backlash?

Arizona was Trump +4 according to a PPP poll in mid-May.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: RJEvans on June 12, 2016, 01:27:42 am
The bigger question here is, how D is Arizona right now with the Mormon and Hispanic backlash?

Arizona was Trump +4 according to a PPP poll in mid-May.

Could be tied now. Seriously, I will love it to see Hillary shock the GOP and do a rally in Salt Lake City, just for kicks.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: pbrower2a on June 12, 2016, 01:59:43 am
Turn the usual Mormon support for Republican pols tepid and intensify the Hispanic participation in the 2016 Presidential election, and Arizona goes for Hillary Clinton.




Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: publicunofficial on June 12, 2016, 02:16:41 am
If we still get competitive Utah polls 2-3 months from now, at what point does "Swing State Utah" stop being a joke?


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 12, 2016, 02:25:26 am
If we still get competitive Utah polls 2-3 months from now, at what point does "Swing State Utah" stop being a joke?

I'll believe it if it's still showing it in September. But like someone else said, even if it is, it'll probably end up being like the Dakotas in 2008 anyway.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: politicallefty on June 12, 2016, 04:07:57 am
I don't know if dropping $1-2 million into Utah in October is really the smartest move, unless things look really locked up by then and team Hillary is just sitting on piles of money. The only downballot Democrat that would help is Doug Owens, and he seems pretty good right now anyway. Would probably be best to dump that sort of money in states like North Carolina, Georgia, or Ohio, that money can really help Democrats in Senate races there.

There are diminishing returns. If Hillary and her allies end up raising $1-2 billion, I'd say a minor investment like that would be a good one. If UT-04 is actually in play, I could easily see the DCCC spending $1-2 million in that one district. I'd like to force Trump to play defense in Utah and I also want to give Hillary both Houses of Congress. Winning seats like UT-04 makes winning the majority in the House much easier.

(I may be dreaming, but can you imagine seeing a State of the Union with President Hillary Clinton, Vice President Elizabeth Warren, and Speaker Nancy Pelosi? I want to see that more than anything.)

I'll believe it if it's still showing it in September. But like someone else said, even if it is, it'll probably end up being like the Dakotas in 2008 anyway.

Probably. I actually fell for that in 2008. I went out on a big limb and predicted Obama to win North Dakota that year. I remember a lot of analysts had both Dakotas as toss-ups at the end of 2008, including Charlie Cook. Admittedly, it was a gamble and I lost. Hillary would have to be up by high single-digits in the polling average at the end of October for me to ever predict her winning Utah. I'd love to see it happen, even if it meant I got a wrong prediction.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Mr. Morden on June 12, 2016, 07:17:57 am
Favorable numbers for the frontrunners are virtually identical:

Clinton: 21/67
Trump: 20/65

Has there ever been a state poll in any state in which the favorability of both parties' presidential nominees was below 25%?  I don't think I've ever seen anything like that.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 12, 2016, 07:22:43 am
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: JRP1994 on June 12, 2016, 07:23:47 am
> In before IceSpear proclaims it a junk poll because neither candidate is at or above 45%.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: michelle on June 12, 2016, 08:36:39 am
I think Romney should attack Trump one more time.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: heatcharger on June 12, 2016, 09:03:25 am
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

Because it became clear pretty quickly that this state wasn't gonna be Trump country. I think if Johnson can siphon off Trump votes, Hillary's got a chance.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: pbrower2a on June 12, 2016, 10:42:01 am
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Ljube on June 12, 2016, 11:01:27 am
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: pbrower2a on June 12, 2016, 11:14:57 am
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: The Other Castro on June 12, 2016, 11:32:55 am
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.

For Zogby polls, you would probably get more accurate polls if you flipped the leading margin to the other candidate, and then double it.


Title: UT: Survey USA: Trump/Clinton tied in Utah
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 12, 2016, 11:51:00 am
New Poll: Utah President by Survey USA on 2016-06-08 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4920160608019)

Summary: D: 35%, R: 35%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.scribd.com/doc/315450242/Salt-Lake-Tribune-President-Poll)


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Helsinkian on June 12, 2016, 01:17:48 pm
I could see Johnson getting up to 10 percent in Utah even if he only gets 2 or 3 percent nationwide.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: dax00 on June 12, 2016, 01:27:16 pm
I, for one, am taking this poll seriously. Trump should make it a point at the RNC to lambaste and completely humiliate Mitt Romney in any way possible.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 12, 2016, 01:46:10 pm
I, for one, am taking this poll seriously. Trump should make it a point at the RNC to lambaste and completely humiliate Mitt Romney in any way possible.

I don't think that would help. I think most Utahns are Mormons/Romney lovers first and Republicans second. If anything it could drive a wedge between the GOP and the Mormons that lasts beyond a single election cycle.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 12, 2016, 01:47:07 pm
> In before IceSpear proclaims it a junk poll because neither candidate is at or above 45%.

It at least makes sense in Utah, due to the unique dynamics in the state.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Ljube on June 12, 2016, 02:23:41 pm
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.

I'd like to remind you of Kansas polls in 2014. The average of polls was off by 12 points or so.

I would not trust any Kansas poll which is not in line with the state fundamentals.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: BlueSwan on June 12, 2016, 02:31:21 pm
Unless Romney himself runs independently, there's just no way that Clinton wins Utah. It's not happening folks.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: dspNY on June 12, 2016, 02:55:49 pm
Unless Romney himself runs independently, there's just no way that Clinton wins Utah. It's not happening folks.

Romney would actually win Utah in that scenario


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 12, 2016, 02:56:49 pm
Unless Romney himself runs independently, there's just no way that Clinton wins Utah. It's not happening folks.

Romney would actually win Utah in that scenario

And probably comfortably, with Trump getting a distant 3rd. I could see something like:

Romney 50
Clinton 30
Trump 20


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: tmthforu94 on June 12, 2016, 03:00:01 pm
Romney should just run on the ballot in Utah. If the election is super close, Utah's 6 EVs could potentially keep Trump and Clinton from reaching 270 and send this to the House.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: pbrower2a on June 12, 2016, 11:29:47 pm
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

At this point I would like to see some polls of Nebraska and South Dakota -- and discover whether the Zogby poll in Kansas is valid. National polls are swinging wildly.

The Zogby poll in Kansas is not valid.

There will be more polls of Kansas -- but long enough from now that the next poll will not need be averaged against the Zogby poll.

If you don't like the poll for some reason other than the poll being taken by a political party, pressure group, lobbying firm, union, or ethnic-advocacy group or that the pollster is a sham, then you will need to live with such polls as are available.

...Unlike some other poll-aggregators I do not offer running averages. A candidate can make a fool of himself; scandals can emerge.

I'd like to remind you of Kansas polls in 2014. The average of polls was off by 12 points or so.

I would not trust any Kansas poll which is not in line with the state fundamentals.

State fundamentals can change. West Virginia went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988, It was hard for many of us to believe that the state would go for Dubya in 2000... but has become one of the most reliably R states in the US.  Now let me tell you how reliably Republican Vermont used to be.

On the other side, I was astonished to see Virginia give small lead after small lead to Barack Obama in 2008. No, the only former Confederate state to vote against Carter in 1976, a state that voted twice against Bill Clinton, and a state that had gone only once for a Republican nominee for President since 1948 (the Goldwater fiasco)... no... Virginia was not going Democratic in 2008. The fundamentals just weren't right.

Just wait for another poll of Kansas if you dislike the Zogby poll. "43" is the typical ceiling for a Democratic nominee in a Presidential election.   


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Zioneer on June 12, 2016, 11:56:38 pm
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

Mainly because the results are wildly out of the ordinary for Utah, and they want to confirm or deny this surprising result. When Utah of all places polls like a swing state, you want to make sure the results are legitimate.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: RJEvans on June 13, 2016, 09:08:58 am
I do find it odd that she is polling 10 points better than Obama with a 20% approval rating.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Jbrase on June 13, 2016, 11:51:55 am
This is insane.
Can someone explain to me why we have so many Utah polls this year?

When one of the deepest "red" states all the sudden looks competitive it should warrant a good number of polls from other sources to confirm it. And if it is indeed a battleground state this year then it would make sense to track it at least as much as the other fools gold states like PA and AZ.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on June 13, 2016, 08:11:52 pm
Romney should just run on the ballot in Utah. If the election is super close, Utah's 6 EVs could potentially keep Trump and Clinton from reaching 270 and send this to the House.

That's been a pet idea of mine for a while


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: x on June 13, 2016, 08:14:32 pm
State fundamentals can change. West Virginia went for Carter in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988, It was hard for many of us to believe that the state would go for Dubya in 2000... but has become one of the most reliably R states in the US.  Now let me tell you how reliably Republican Vermont used to be.

On the other side, I was astonished to see Virginia give small lead after small lead to Barack Obama in 2008. No, the only former Confederate state to vote against Carter in 1976, a state that voted twice against Bill Clinton, and a state that had gone only once for a Republican nominee for President since 1948 (the Goldwater fiasco)... no... Virginia was not going Democratic in 2008. The fundamentals just weren't right.

Just wait for another poll of Kansas if you dislike the Zogby poll. "43" is the typical ceiling for a Democratic nominee in a Presidential election.    

Honestly, the signs for Virginia were there years beforehand. Neither age group in Virginia voted as heavily Republican as other southern states - Mostly 40% - 47%, with an average of maybe 44% or so. In 2000, Bush won 18-29yr olds comfortably. In 2004, Bush then lost 18-29yr olds by 10 points. That was a dramatic flip, and Obama's campaign clearly saw what was going on. Young voters are mostly the reason Obama won Virginia and they are the ones continuing to make Virginia Democratic as they age. Obama won 18-29yr olds by 60% and 61% in 2008, 2012, respectively. It's safe to say that the emerging voter base in VA has significantly different political choices than their parents. Combined with favorable population movement, it's a disaster for the state GOP.

Contrast to West Virginia, where Gore got blown out in 2000 among 18-29yr olds - 57 - 37 Bush, and in 2004, it was closer but almost all other age groups went hard against Democrats.

I don't think Utah has any of these characteristics - A Clinton win here, or a bare Trump win would be something of a fluke - A victim of circumstances. Not to say it couldn't set the state on a new course down the line, though. Impossible to say right now. I just wanted to add that these trends are very rarely spontaneous.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Anonymous on June 14, 2016, 01:32:01 am
I, for one, am taking this poll seriously. Trump should make it a point at the RNC to lambaste and completely humiliate Mitt Romney in any way possible.

Lmao and you think that'll increase his numbers in Utah of all places?! By all means, please encourage him to do so. Maybe Gary Johnson will finish second in Utah if Trumpet continues to bash and ridicule their favorite son Willard. 


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: HillOfANight on June 14, 2016, 09:51:13 am
Crosstabs up.

http://www.surveyusa.com/index.php/2016/06/14/could-bright-red-utah-go-blue-for-first-time-in-52-years-clinton-starts-off-tied-with-trump/
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=fd3a327c-92e3-437a-867c-b90ec9179363

Trump leads in Congressional District #1 39-32, trails in Congressional District #3 31-35, and runs effectively even with Clinton in Congressional District #2 36-36 and #4 34-36.

Trump leads by 19 points among Mormon voters, Clinton leads by 15 points among Non-Mormon voters, and by 38 points among voters who are not a member of an organized religion.

Trump leads by 12 among voters with a high school education. Clinton leads by 9 among voters with a 4-year college degree. Trump leads by 5 among men; Clinton leads by 5 among women.

Also amazing is that on landlines, Clinton leads 38-35, while Trump leads the online polling 36-19.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 14, 2016, 05:30:16 pm
LOL, look at the age 18-34 crosstab:

Johnson 32
Clinton 26
Trump 16


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: adrac on June 14, 2016, 06:38:12 pm
LOL, look at the age 18-34 crosstab:

Johnson 32
Clinton 26
Trump 16

What a time to be alive...


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: dspNY on June 14, 2016, 06:42:11 pm
LOL, look at the age 18-34 crosstab:

Johnson 32
Clinton 26
Trump 16

ROFLMAO


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on June 14, 2016, 08:54:21 pm
LOL, look at the age 18-34 crosstab:

Johnson 32
Clinton 26
Trump 16

Freedom State


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on June 14, 2016, 10:45:07 pm
Quote
If these polls in Utah continue to show a close race, Arizona will certainly be in play.

AZ will be solid Hillary if UT is in play. I may have to adjust my forecast.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Anonymous on June 14, 2016, 11:03:55 pm
Quote
If these polls in Utah continue to show a close race, Arizona will certainly be in play.

AZ will be solid Hillary if UT is in play. I may have to adjust my forecast.

The whites in Arizona appear to be more racist/supportive of Trump's building of a wall versus the "Jesus would welcome these people with open arms" Mormons in Utah (which is true). That's the difference.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Lean Branson on June 14, 2016, 11:36:58 pm
Quote
If these polls in Utah continue to show a close race, Arizona will certainly be in play.

AZ will be solid Hillary if UT is in play. I may have to adjust my forecast.

The whites in Arizona appear to be more racist/supportive of Trump's building of a wall versus the "Jesus would welcome these people with open arms" Mormons in Utah (which is true). That's the difference.

Hence why McCain bent the knee.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Angrie on June 15, 2016, 08:47:14 am
The whites in Arizona appear to be more racist/supportive of Trump's building of a wall versus the "Jesus would welcome these people with open arms" Mormons in Utah (which is true). That's the difference.

But is that true of the subset of Arizona whites who are Mormon?


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Zioneer on June 15, 2016, 12:31:51 pm
The whites in Arizona appear to be more racist/supportive of Trump's building of a wall versus the "Jesus would welcome these people with open arms" Mormons in Utah (which is true). That's the difference.

But is that true of the subset of Arizona whites who are Mormon?

Depends on the Mormon; on the one hand you've got Russell Pearce, the former President of the Arizona State Senate, an odious guy who was responsible for the "papers please" law, and who affiliated with (and baptized into the LDS Church at least one) Neo-Nazis. His sons are also into the hardcore anti-immigration (and at this point its not just anti-illegal immigration) crowd.

On the other you've got Jerry Lewis (not the comedian), the State Senator who replaced Pearce when he was recalled, someone just as conservative, but less nightmarishly bigoted on immigration and so forth, and who was practically endorsed by the LDS Church.

Overall, I'd say Arizona Mormons tend to be more hardline on immigration than Utah Mormons, but there are exceptions.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: IDS Ex-Speaker Ben Kenobi on June 15, 2016, 10:03:16 pm
Quote
The whites in Arizona appear to be more racist/supportive of Trump's building of a wall versus the "Jesus would welcome these people with open arms" Mormons in Utah (which is true). That's the difference.

If he's tied in UT, he's lost Arizona. 14 percent among Hispanics and holding level with Mitt means a loss.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: Anonymous on June 16, 2016, 12:45:05 am
Quote
The whites in Arizona appear to be more racist/supportive of Trump's building of a wall versus the "Jesus would welcome these people with open arms" Mormons in Utah (which is true). That's the difference.

If he's tied in UT, he's lost Arizona. 14 percent among Hispanics and holding level with Mitt means a loss.

I get that, but at the end of the day, does anyone really expect HILLARY CLINTON to win UTAH?! I'm one of the biggest Hillary hacks on here (hiyeeeee IceSpear) and not even I see that happening. Utahns will eventually come home to roost in November, but Trump will almost assuredly do much worse than Romney. I see a 5-10 point victory, maybe more if Johnson siphons enough votes from the #NeverTrump crowd of Mormons who are that sincere in their rejection of Trump.


Title: Re: UT-SurveyUSA/Salt Lake Tribune: Utah still in play
Post by: NOVA Green on June 16, 2016, 01:43:01 am
LOL, look at the age 18-34 crosstab:

Johnson 32
Clinton 26
Trump 16

What a time to be alive...

Wow---- there are still 26% remaining.... was Bernie included as a write-in option in this poll? ;)