Talk Elections

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016

Clinton: 49%
Trump: 37%

Clinton 49
Trump 37
Johnson 9

Would never support-
Trump 55
Johnson 44
Clinton 43

http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rc0NltTBR0ug/v0


SELZER & COMPANY Study #2140
1,000 U.S. adults ages 18 and over June 10-13, 2016
Margin of error for full sample: ± 3.1 percentage points Weighted by age and race
Includes 750 likely voters in the November general election
Margin of error for likely voter subsample: ± 3.6 percentage points

Lest the 1964 redux predictions be revived, let's all remember this is a bounce, just like how Trump got a bounce after he clinched the nomination.

DAMN

Clinton led by 18 in the last version of this poll. It seems to have some sort of clinton bias caked into it.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-14/bloomberg-politics-national-poll-june-2016
http://assets.bwbx.io/documents/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/rc0NltTBR0ug/v0

Horse race didn't change Clinton vs Trump post Orlando but did lower Obama's approval.

55% bothered over Trump's attack on judge Curiel's heritage.

White men are among Trump's strongest demographics. But even there he's not showing as much strength as the party's last nominee, Mitt Romney, who beat Obama in 2012 by 62 percent to 35 percent among white men, according to exit polls.

Back in March.

Edit: And its still +18 if Johnson isnt included.

LOL at the Donald

Obama's approval-disapproval is 53-42.

Which was an outlier.

Clinton is up 4-6 right now.

Nate Cohn and Harry Enten are sort of not taking this poll seriously

Interviews were conducted June 10 - 13, so I think this
poll is out of date.

In the "battling terrorism" poll (interviews conducted June 13)
Trump leads by 4.

We're a Suffolk and a CNN poll away from the RCP average getting out of hand.

Neither are we, but we also got a +7 Clinton poll today. Hillarys getting a bump.

Selzer method polling in Iowa (all adults) kind of out of whack with pollsters that only look at registered voters, but still good to know the national sentiment.

A poll conducted in the past 4 days is now out of date?

wow. Terrific!

For the record, I do think this is probably an outlier.

The MOE on that one day of interviews is going to be larger than the margin. You're cherry-picking data. Don't be Karl Rove. Nobody should be Karl Rove.

It's a fast world. Anything published before 5 minutes ago is obsolete.

June 20, 2012 Selzer had it Obama 53-40

The "flawed" challenger languished at 39-48 favorables lol

She still has room to grow - getting only 55% of Sanders supporters. Also two thirds of women stating they could never see themselves backing Trump - that's just an astronomically high number to overcome if close to reality.

And Romney still lost so.

Trump seems to be consistently under 40% as of late.

Yeah, his RCP average seems to be cratering right now.

What a nice poll!

No.

BEAUTIFUL poll!

Happy Birthday Donald

Normally not, but I fear that Trump is going to get a bounce
after June 12 and this bounce is not included in this poll because
most of the interviews were conducted before.

Clinton is just getting a post-clinch bounce. Clinton will not defeat Donald J. Trump by double-digits in November.

Biases aside, we have to admit that this poll is an outlier. Remember Kaizer in 2014?

Give him more camera time, we'll see.

Being down 12% is bad, but the fact that the #NeverTrump movement is up to 55%, is way worse. I think Trump will have his ups and downs, but if a majority will never vote for him, it's gonna be a tough path to victory.

That and 67% of women saying they couldn't ever vote for him. If us dems wins 2/3 of women and keep men within 20, it'll be a pretty easy electoral win.

Given the WaPo/ABC poll showing Trump's favorability tanking, this may not actually be a pro-Hillary bounce. It may be more of an anti-Trump bounce, in reaction to his racist statements about that Judge's heritage. Also, it may not really be a bounce at all, since Bloomberg/Selzer has had an apparent Democratic bias. Bernie has not actually dropped out or endorsed Clinton yet, so when he eventually does, that might even send Hillary higher than this, at least in Bloomberg/Selzer.

https://twitter.com/jaselzer/status/743188730693877761
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-15/national-poll-part-2

Part 2 is up. GOP favorability is at a record low of 32% while Dems are at a healthy 49%.

()

Among self-described Republicans, 28 percent say they feel unfavorably about their party. Just 4 percent of Democrats say they feel that way.

Trump favorability at 31%, Hillary favorability at 43% and Bill at 56%

Someone (not Clinton, but maybe Warren or even Sanders) should start publicly mocking Trump over his terrible polls just to see how he would react.