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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Fargobison on June 15, 2016, 12:30:53 pm



Title: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Fargobison on June 15, 2016, 12:30:53 pm
Clinton 46
Trump 37

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/743131478964502528


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Ebsy on June 15, 2016, 12:32:55 pm
So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Classic Conservative on June 15, 2016, 12:35:07 pm
This actually is better than I thought for Trump tbh


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 15, 2016, 12:35:36 pm
Also worth noting. Clinton does BETTER with LVs than RVs (usually GOP does better). Also, fully 1/4 of Sanders supporters still not behind Clinton. If she leads by 9 given that... wow.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Fargobison on June 15, 2016, 12:37:53 pm
HRC still struggling with some of the Sander's supporters

Quote
MULawPoll
‏@MULawPoll
Many supporters of Sanders remain reluctant to vote for Clinton, Franklin says. #mulawpoll

GOP enthusiasm is way down...

Quote
MULawPoll ‏@MULawPoll  7m7 minutes ago
In this poll, 78% of Republicans say they are certain to vote in Nov., down 9 percentage points from March. #mulawpoll

Quote
MULawPoll
‏@MULawPoll
Poll director Franklin says drop in Republican voter enthusiasm is "substantial." #mulawpoll


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Xing on June 15, 2016, 12:40:32 pm
This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Angrie on June 15, 2016, 12:40:46 pm
So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.

There is a difference between the potentially competitive areas of the upper midwest (WI/MN/IA) and of the rust belt (PA/OH/MI). They are not the same region. They have different history and different politics, and a candidate can do well in the first group and poorly in the latter, or vice versa.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Reginald on June 15, 2016, 12:48:35 pm
Also worth noting. Clinton does BETTER with LVs than RVs (usually GOP does better).

Just for the sake of completeness:

LV
Clinton 46 / Trump 37

RV
Clinton 42 / Trump 35


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Holmes on June 15, 2016, 12:48:50 pm
If we can get the Sanders supporters to unite, it could be a 2008-level margin here.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Fargobison on June 15, 2016, 01:07:40 pm
This poll really makes me want to see an Iowa poll.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Gass3268 on June 15, 2016, 01:12:05 pm
Lol on Walker approval:

39% Approve
57% Disapprove


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Fargobison on June 15, 2016, 01:28:29 pm
Basically the only bright spot in this poll for Republicans in WI....

Quote
Views on Speaker Paul Ryan: Favorable, 49%; unfavorable, 32%; 18% no opinion. In March, it was 48%/ 31%/ 21%. #mulawpoll


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Ljube on June 15, 2016, 01:38:48 pm
Expected.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Gass3268 on June 15, 2016, 01:39:04 pm
Quote
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  5m5 minutes ago
There has not been a single poll in Wisconsin that Clinton up by anything less than 9 points.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Redban on June 15, 2016, 01:45:00 pm
Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 15, 2016, 01:59:42 pm
Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.

Probably they won't since Milwaukee talk radio continues to be a bastion of #NeverTrump and Walker himself has refused to endorse TRUMP.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Bevinevitable on June 15, 2016, 02:02:00 pm
Recall that Trump got a beatdown here during the primary, which was not so long ago. Many GOP voters in Wisconsin have not consolidated over their nominee; who knows if they ever will.

Hillary got crushed as well though.

Are there more #NeverTrump or #BernieorBust people in this poll?


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: pbrower2a on June 15, 2016, 02:09:18 pm
13% of the respondents said that they were going to neither vote for Clinton nor Trump.

37 for Trump, 46% for Clinton, and 13% for Johnson or Stein means that Trump's ceiling is 41%, which Hillary Clinton beats easily.

Lowest R percentages since 1920 in Wisconsin:

2008 McCain 42%
1996 Dole 37% (three way race)
1992 Bush 37% (three way race)
1964 Goldwater 38%
1936 Landon 38%
1932 Hoover 31%
1924 Coolidge 37% (Third-Party favorite son won Wisconsin that year)


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Shameless Bernie Hack on June 15, 2016, 02:16:40 pm
So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.

There is a difference between the potentially competitive areas of the upper midwest (WI/MN/IA) and of the rust belt (PA/OH/MI). They are not the same region. They have different history and different politics, and a candidate can do well in the first group and poorly in the latter, or vice versa.

This. I've been to both, and worked politics (in a limited way) in both. VERY different.

(The cheese curds are much better in the upper midwest than the rust belt, for example)


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on June 15, 2016, 04:19:52 pm
This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Xing on June 15, 2016, 04:29:30 pm
This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on June 15, 2016, 04:38:18 pm
This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Xing on June 15, 2016, 04:46:25 pm
This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.

I certainly wouldn't rule out Virginia before Wisconsin. You could argue that the state's trending Democratic, but it's probably a bit soon to say that it's gone for Republicans. And I'd definitely give Pennsylvania to Trump before Wisconsin. Wisconsin simply isn't a good state for Trump, since the Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents and quite progressive, and Republicans would prefer a candidate like Cruz. It's not impossible that Trump could win Wisconsin, but I don't see it happening unless he's already won OH, PA, FL, VA, IA, and probably a few other states (i.e. already won the election.)


Title: WI: Marquette Law School: Clinton Leading in Wisconsin
Post by: Dave Leip on June 15, 2016, 04:49:58 pm
New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2016-06-12 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5520160612181)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 37%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/06/15/detailed-results-of-the-marquette-law-school-poll-june-9-12-2016/)


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Eraserhead on June 15, 2016, 07:13:15 pm
Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Beet on June 15, 2016, 07:20:03 pm
Sanders is tanking Clinton's numbers by holding onto his die hards, whereas in the other scenario, people are assuming Clinton endorsed him like she did Obama.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Fargobison on June 15, 2016, 07:24:29 pm
Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.

Rubio would be I think as well, seems like he would be a perfect fit for the WOW counties.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: ElectionsGuy on June 15, 2016, 07:31:17 pm
A lot of apathy/anger with the candidates in Wisconsin, as it was a Sanders/Cruz state. Its almost unprecedented for both parties to have more than a quarter dissaproval of your own nominee in a state. The Milwaukee area Republicans still hate Trump, I bet a lot of that 'won't vote/other' is coming from there for Republicans. I'm guessing Waukesha County turns out something like this...

Trump: 58%
Clinton: 37%
Johnson/Other: 5%

Madison (Dane) something like this:

Clinton: 68%
Trump: 27%
Johnson/Other: 5%

Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.

Rubio would be I think as well, seems like he would be a perfect fit for the WOW counties.

Yeah, I would speculate that if Wisconsin was held on March 1st I think Rubio would've won the primary.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: pbrower2a on June 15, 2016, 08:39:13 pm
This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

If Gary Johnson is getting 10% of the vote in any state,then whoever gets over 45% wins the state. Johnson seems to be picking up fewer votes from usual Democratic voters than from usual Republican voters.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Ebsy on June 15, 2016, 08:53:49 pm
I wonder if Eraserhead will ever tire of concern trolling.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Seriously? on June 15, 2016, 09:46:52 pm
This poll is more evidence that, for the 5693th time, Wisconsin is NOT a toss-up. It's Lean D at the very least, and I'd say Likely D is more fitting, at this point.

Not really. Trump is currently down 10 points nationally and he's trailing by 9 in WI (I expected much worse for him in this state). Hardly "leans D". Also keep in mind that Clinton is not even at 50% yet.

Trump is down 10 in some polls. He's been consistently down by this much or more in Wisconsin. If Trump were leading by 7 in one national poll, and then 8 in Indiana, would that make Indiana a toss-up? Also, Trump is not even at 40%. Why does Clinton being below 50 matter more than that? Either way, Trump being down this consistently in Wisconsin doesn't suggest that he's in good shape to win here. Quite the opposite.

Point taken, but I wouldn't rule out the possibility of WI being the tipping point state this year. VA is gone for Trump and if the Democratic turnout machine in Philadelphia is a success, WI will be the do or die state for Trump. Kasich, Rubio and Cruz were polling very well there, so if Trump can unite Republicans and pick up some Independents, he can at least make the state somewhat competitive. We'll see, though.
If Wisconsin is ever the tipping point state for the GOP, they are in huge trouble. It's a tier 2 state, at best. I'd probably rank it as the Midwest Twin states of tease along with MN and their cousins NJ and OR in the East and West.

WI is usually fools gold for the GOP, much like GA in the South for the Dems.

MI and PA are likely to be competitive on the GOP side before WI.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Eraserhead on June 15, 2016, 09:53:12 pm
I wonder if Eraserhead will ever tire of concern trolling.

Maybe around the same time that you tire of trolling Sanders supporters. :P


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Desroko on June 15, 2016, 10:21:32 pm
Quote
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  5m5 minutes ago
There has not been a single poll in Wisconsin that Clinton up by anything less than 9 points.

You should probably remove the ((( ))) (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triple_parentheses) from Enten's name before re-posting. And question the sort of other websites you're reading.

Edit: Because I don't tweet I didn't know that Enten puts it in front of his own name. False alarm.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Gass3268 on June 15, 2016, 10:27:16 pm
Quote
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  5m5 minutes ago
There has not been a single poll in Wisconsin that Clinton up by anything less than 9 points.

You should probably remove the ((( ))) from Enten's name before re-posting. And question the sort of other websites you're reading.

Enten is a writer for 538. He and many others are doing it as sign of solidarity with those who are being attacked by anti-semites.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Desroko on June 15, 2016, 10:32:56 pm
Quote
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  5m5 minutes ago
There has not been a single poll in Wisconsin that Clinton up by anything less than 9 points.

You should probably remove the ((( ))) from Enten's name before re-posting. And question the sort of other websites you're reading.

Enten is a writer for 538. He and many others are doing it as sign of solidarity with those who are being attacked by anti-semites.

Yep, didn't know that. Apologies.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Wiz in Wis on June 16, 2016, 10:01:49 am
A lot of apathy/anger with the candidates in Wisconsin, as it was a Sanders/Cruz state. Its almost unprecedented for both parties to have more than a quarter dissaproval of your own nominee in a state. The Milwaukee area Republicans still hate Trump, I bet a lot of that 'won't vote/other' is coming from there for Republicans. I'm guessing Waukesha County turns out something like this...

Trump: 58%
Clinton: 37%
Johnson/Other: 5%

Madison (Dane) something like this:

Clinton: 68%
Trump: 27%
Johnson/Other: 5%

Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.

Rubio would be I think as well, seems like he would be a perfect fit for the WOW counties.

Yeah, I would speculate that if Wisconsin was held on March 1st I think Rubio would've won the primary.

I think you're underestimating Clinton a bit in Dane County. No way Trump does as well as Romney. He'll have a hard time breaking 25%. Clinton will get 70, min. Waukesha looks right. I would imagine that Trump will win, but not by the margins he needs, the WOW region. I think he loses the Fox valley by 10.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: ○∙◄☻tπ[╪AV┼cV└ on January 11, 2017, 01:31:57 am
Among registered voters (and it's too early to look at likely voters imo) it's:

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%

And not that it matters now but:

Sanders 56%
Trump 31%

I wonder if Cruz or Rubio would be leading Clinton here... I bet Kasich would be at least.

When a poll is 8 points off, much better to be up 25 points rather than 7 points.


Title: Re: WI- Marquette Law Poll: Clinton +9
Post by: Keep cool-idge on August 18, 2017, 04:03:06 pm
So much for Trump's rust belt breakthrough.
junk poll