Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: The Other Castro on June 15, 2016, 06:00:58 PM



Title: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: The Other Castro on June 15, 2016, 06:00:58 PM
()

()

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/clinton-maintains-lead-after-claiming-nomination-cbs-news-poll/


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: The Other Castro on June 15, 2016, 06:03:57 PM
()


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: The Other Castro on June 15, 2016, 06:17:56 PM
Junky crosstabs, but looks like Democrats are more united than Republicans...

If Clinton leads among college whites by as much as Trump leads among non college whites, I feel like she'd be leading nationally by a lot more than 6.


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: JerryArkansas on June 15, 2016, 06:25:33 PM
Junky crosstabs, but looks like Democrats are more united than Republicans...

If Clinton leads among college whites by as much as Trump leads among non college whites, I feel like she'd be leading nationally by a lot more than 6.
Yeah, plugging some of these numbers into the 538 Calculator, she would be up like 7 or 8 with those numbers.


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: heatcharger on June 15, 2016, 06:28:18 PM
If Hillary is actually winning by 20+ among college-educated whites, November 8th is gonna be a sad day for Republicans.


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: Holmes on June 15, 2016, 06:34:40 PM
If Hillary is actually winning by 20+ among college-educated whites, November 8th is gonna be a sad day for Republicans.

Didn't Romney win this demographic?


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: dspNY on June 15, 2016, 06:42:28 PM
If Hillary is winning college educated whites by 20 points she's up double digits when her advantages with minority voters (and Trump's colossal disadvantages) are taken into account. CBS sampled a larger # of non-college educated whites to get Clinton +6


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 15, 2016, 06:43:05 PM
If Hillary is actually winning by 20+ among college-educated whites, November 8th is gonna be a sad day for Republicans.

Didn't Romney win this demographic?

Yes.


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: Ebsy on June 15, 2016, 06:43:21 PM
Clinton up 8 with white women!


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: john cage bubblegum on June 15, 2016, 06:50:32 PM
Clinton should definitely be winning by more than 6 points overall if she's only losing white voters by 6 points.  I also don't see numbers for Latino voters in the crosstabs.  Do they not have separate categories for Non-Hispanic White and Latinos, and that's helping her numbers with whites?  Or is this just an example of funky sub-samples?


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: Eraserhead on June 15, 2016, 07:18:16 PM
I love the "honest and trustworthy" numbers for both of them.


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: Vosem on June 15, 2016, 09:22:46 PM
Love that both candidates have lost support since February. Exactly what they deserve.


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: IceSpear on June 15, 2016, 10:13:33 PM
Clinton should definitely be winning by more than 6 points overall if she's only losing white voters by 6 points.  I also don't see numbers for Latino voters in the crosstabs.  Do they not have separate categories for Non-Hispanic White and Latinos, and that's helping her numbers with whites?  Or is this just an example of funky sub-samples?

My question as well.


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: Reginald on June 15, 2016, 11:45:36 PM
The CBS poll last month (though it was shared with NYT) had the same margin, but much lower undecideds. Trump was winning whites by 12 and was at 85% with Republicans in that poll.


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: Desroko on June 16, 2016, 01:15:13 AM
The numbers that really matter:

Quote
Fifty-one percent expect Hillary Clinton to finally win the 2016 presidential election, compared to just 35% that expects Trump to win.


Title: Re: CBS National Poll: Clinton +6
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 16, 2016, 04:00:46 AM
The numbers that really matter:

Quote
Fifty-one percent expect Hillary Clinton to finally win the 2016 presidential election, compared to just 35% that expects Trump to win.

Yep. At least here in my neighborhood this has always been the most accurately predictive part of the polls, regardless of their topline numbers.