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Title: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: HillOfANight on June 17, 2016, 09:03:08 AM https://twitter.com/AdamWollner/status/743795068239220738
https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/637647 Don't have subscriber access, but I just searched for "poll" on Twitter and this came up. () Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: Sir Mohamed on June 17, 2016, 09:20:20 AM So Trump is down double digits nationally and Clinton is just at 39% in AZ? More evidence that this state is not in play this year, barring a Democratic landslide. Well, 42% for the Trumpster is also pretty weak. Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: JRP1994 on June 17, 2016, 09:24:30 AM Arizona is a state where Johnson could do quite well.
Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: john cage bubblegum on June 17, 2016, 09:27:40 AM So Trump is down double digits nationally and Clinton is just at 39% in AZ? More evidence that this state is not in play this year, barring a Democratic landslide. Poll was taken June 4-6, before even the California primary. It was still a tight race nationally then. Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: HillOfANight on June 17, 2016, 09:47:14 AM I think it's fair to say Clinton is doing better in AZ than Obama was doing in Indiana in 2008, yet he won IN
Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: psychprofessor on June 17, 2016, 10:12:57 AM These traditionally red states, Arizona, Utah, Georgia...all showing a tightening of the polls has to be concerning for Trump. In a close state, ground game and organization are essential...if these states still are within a few points as November comes closer, you have to think Clinton has a good shot of picking one or two of them off.
Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: Xing on June 17, 2016, 10:37:53 AM Bad news for Trump. He can't afford to worry about a state like Arizona.
Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on June 17, 2016, 10:44:37 AM So Trump is down double digits nationally and Clinton is just at 39% in AZ? More evidence that this state is not in play this year, barring a Democratic landslide. Poll was taken June 4-6, before even the California primary. It was still a tight race nationally then. Then it's happening. AZ should be roughly tied right now. Now all we need is a few Trump +5 polls in TX and we have an explanation for the divergence of state and national polling. And AZ saves her from an EC problem if Trump gets the FL-OH-PA trifecta (although I highly doubt he's strong enough in FL after how he has handled Orlando). You do seem to have this lock-solid idea about Clinton losing PA-OH-FL don't you? Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: Holmes on June 17, 2016, 10:46:47 AM I don't think he's saying she'll lose them. Rather, winning those three are Trump's only real path to victory, so there should be backup plans for Clinton in case it happens.
Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on June 17, 2016, 11:30:17 AM These traditionally red states, Arizona, Utah, Georgia...all showing a tightening of the polls has to be concerning for Trump. In a close state, ground game and organization are essential...if these states still are within a few points as November comes closer, you have to think Clinton has a good shot of picking one or two of them off. Again, Trump has no concept of red and blue states. He's listed NY, CA & WV among his top target states. Even hired a pollster for NY. Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: HAnnA MArin County on June 17, 2016, 12:01:57 PM These traditionally red states, Arizona, Utah, Georgia...all showing a tightening of the polls has to be concerning for Trump. In a close state, ground game and organization are essential...if these states still are within a few points as November comes closer, you have to think Clinton has a good shot of picking one or two of them off. Again, Trump has no concept of red and blue states. He's listed NY, CA & WV among his top target states. Even hired a pollster for NY. ^^This. Sounds like Trump is still stuck in primary mode and is going for the 50 State Strategy. I'm surprised he hasn't said that he's going to win every state (or has he). Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: pbrower2a on June 17, 2016, 01:43:03 PM 42-39, private poll by (apparently) a conservative entity, in a state that has never gone for a Democrat in a true two-way election since 1948? (Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996, thanks in part to Ross Perot picking off a large part of the usual Republican electorate).
Hillary Clinton may have a higher ceiling than Donald Trump in Arizona. I'd like to see what Gary Johnson does in Arizona. Title: Re: Arizona private poll: Trump 42 Clinton 39 Post by: Wells on June 17, 2016, 02:58:32 PM Also, 4.5% margin of error. This race could be anywhere from Trump 46.5, Clinton 34.5; to Clinton 43.5, Trump 37.5.
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