Talk Elections

http://stateandcapitol.bangordailynews.com/2016/06/25/poll-clinton-leads-trump-in-maine-but-race-tied-in-2nd-district

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.pressherald.com/2016/06/24/maine-voters-dissatisfied-with-presidential-options/

Maine allocates two Electoral College votes to the overall winner and one each for the candidate who receives the most votes in each congressional district.

Clinton 42
Trump 35
Other 19
Undecided 4

In the 2nd District, 64 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of Clinton to 57 percent for Trump. Head to head, the race there is a virtual tie, with Trump getting 30 percent of support to Clinton’s 28 percent.

The king of trashy pollsters strikes again.

30-28? That's 42% other/undecided. As junk as the UT polls showing Clinton ahead.

I treat any binary poll with the leader with less than 40% a tie. Even if the poll is good in its methodology it is inconclusive. 

So +7 in the state and -2 in ME-02? Rough math makes the swing between the two districts 16% to get a +7 statewide result. So it's Clinton +14 in ME-01.

Seriously?

There was a 7% difference in 2012. And there's a 7% difference with Cook PVI D+9 for ME-1 and D+2 for ME-2. So... ummmm. no...

It's possible. See Nebraska in 2008, when Obama won NE-02 (mostly greater Omaha) while losing the rest of the state handily.

Likely voters in Maine’s more urban, Democratic and southern 1st Congressional District favored Clinton over Trump, 42 percent to 27 percent. But the race appears to be more of a dead heat in the state’s more rural and northern 2nd Congressional District, where 30 percent of likely voters said they favor Trump compared to only 28 percent who favor Clinton.

A lot of prognosticators have been sounding the alarm that Maine/Nebraska could share its delegates between both candidates, with most saying Trump more likely to lose Nebraska's than Clinton to lose Maine's, but that doesn't seem to be the case here.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-only-thing-that-matters/
http://cookpolitical.com/presidential/charts/scorecard
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/first-read-battleground-map-shows-disadvantages-trump-n569266

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There's no way she's only up 7 in Maine at large. Still, in a close race, ME-02 could be close, so it's worth keeping an eye on.

She's at Obama 2012 numbers with an average of C+5ish in the nationwide polling.

Clinton +7 in ME is plausible (Obama took it by roughly 6 in 2012). The ME-01/02 split is not. If the state ends up C+7, Clinton takes all 4 EVs.

Wait, what? Obama won it by 15% in 2012, and won ME-02 by 8.5%!

Nope, Clinton is up double digits in Maine (single digits in the 2nd congressional district). No way Trump is popular at all there. He lost this state in the primaries

It was a caucus that was really unrepresentative of what people actually thought. Cruz always did well in caucuses, while Trump won every other northeast state by a wide margin. If Maine has been a primary, it is very likely Trump would have won it. Also, Maine has a history of electing angry white guys into office. (Paul LePage, for example.)

You are correct. Math was not my friend there....

Cruz won Maine because it was a fake election.