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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2016, 09:35:11 am



Title: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2016, 09:35:11 am
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http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll-florida-north-carolina-wisconsin-colorado-battleground-states


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2016, 09:38:20 am
Full results with 3rd party candidates:

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https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/06/26/battleground-colorado-florida-north-carolina-wisco


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: dspNY on June 26, 2016, 09:38:46 am
+2 in North Carolina and +3 in Florida are really good results

+5 in Wisconsin is a little low. I believe the Marquette Poll with Clinton +9 a lot more (they know their state almost perfectly)

+1 in Colorado is a bit of a bummer


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on June 26, 2016, 09:41:46 am
I find it hard to believe that Clinton does better in North Carolina than in Colorado.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2016, 09:42:40 am
I find it hard to believe that Clinton does better in North Carolina than in Colorado.

Previous polls in CO had her down by 10, so +1 is definitely an improvement for her.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: HillOfANight on June 26, 2016, 09:49:41 am
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/co/colorado_mccain_vs_obama-546.html
RCP was Obama +5.5 in 2008, he ended up 9.0 in Colorado.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/co/colorado_romney_vs_obama-2023.html
RCP was Obama +1.5 in 2012, he ended up +5.5. Seems like problem polling Hispanics.

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ldeqlewqgu/CO_ForRelease_20160626.pdf
Page 20 question 8, Clinton gets 30% of 18-29 and Trump gets 33% LOL.

She gets 37% of whites to 42% for Trump (Romney won by 10).


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: / on June 26, 2016, 09:50:44 am
lol CO


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: john cage bubblegum on June 26, 2016, 10:13:05 am
It's hard to imagine a world where Clinton is up ~7 points nationally, and up 1 in CO or up only 5 in WI.  And I don't think you can really blame RV/LV split, because from what we've seen from polls that have given us both RV and LV results, there is little-to-no Repub LV advantage this year. 

I know she's not a great fit for CO, but neither is Trump.  We have seen Dems well overperform their polling in CO and NV, so that could be going on.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Tender Branson on June 26, 2016, 10:16:21 am
It's hard to imagine a world where Clinton is up ~7 points nationally, and up 1 in CO or up only 5 in WI.  And I don't think you can really blame RV/LV split, because from what we've seen from polls that have given us both RV and LV results, there is little-to-no Repub LV advantage this year. 

I know she's not a great fit for CO, but neither is Trump.  We have seen Dems well overperform their polling in CO and NV, so that could be going on.

You guys are forgetting the MoE: Clinton could be leading by 9 in WI right now (which is what Marquette showed). I think she's eventually favoured in CO as well (it usually underpolls for the Dem. candidate). But in general, all these state polls recently match up with a 5-6% national lead ... and not a 12-point lead (like that garbage WaPo poll says).


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: President Johnson on June 26, 2016, 10:16:54 am
Boom! Considering the fact that Big Don had some tough weeks, he's doing really well. TRUMP is anything but finished.

I find it hard to believe that Clinton does better in North Carolina than in Colorado.

I remember some polls last year, in which all GOPers lead Hilldog by large margins. I'll give TRUMP a 60% chance to win the mountain state and its 9 electoral votes in November.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Maxwell on June 26, 2016, 10:24:46 am
+1 in Colorado, while +2 in NC?

smh smh smh YouGov.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: JRP1994 on June 26, 2016, 10:32:42 am
The unskew is strong in this thread.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Xing on June 26, 2016, 10:37:58 am
Seems a bit friendly to Trump in CO/WI, and a bit friendly to Clinton in NC. Still, good to actually have some numbers to work with.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: heatcharger on June 26, 2016, 10:39:41 am
The unskew is strong in this thread.

Bill and Hillary combined have only won the state once, so it's possible CO is less favorable to her, but  it is true that Colorado polling has underestimated Democratic support for years, most likely because of the Hispanic population.

Also did they poll senate races in these states?


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Lyin' Steve on June 26, 2016, 10:57:57 am
Lots of undecideds in these polls.  21% undecided in Colorado?  Wonder how many are Sanders children saying they won't vote for either.  Sanders won Colorado 60-40.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Higgs on June 26, 2016, 11:44:01 am
I thought they did a national poll too?


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: pbrower2a on June 26, 2016, 12:45:20 pm
If Democrats get the Hispanic vote out in Colorado and Nevada, they win. Big.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Seriously? on June 26, 2016, 12:53:38 pm
Boom! Considering the fact that Big Don had some tough weeks, he's doing really well. TRUMP is anything but finished.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Ebsy on June 26, 2016, 01:05:55 pm
Considering YouGov's in house bias against Clinton, these are very good polls.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Hammy on June 26, 2016, 01:41:11 pm
Any poll with >10% undecideds is really worthless. We're within four months of the election, they need to start pushing the undecideds a bit more--either could have 5-10 point leads in those states for all we know with the information we have.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Cruzcrew on June 26, 2016, 02:14:19 pm
The NC sample seems too Democratic with a D+5(47-42) sample for what party they're registered in.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Eraserhead on June 26, 2016, 05:38:02 pm
The Clintons have never been popular in Colorado, so I don't find that too hard to believe.

I'm surprised by how poorly Johnson and Stein are doing in these polls compared to the national ones.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: Landslide Andy on June 29, 2016, 05:59:59 pm
Boom! Considering the fact that Big Don had some tough weeks, he's doing really well. TRUMP is anything but finished.

I don't really see how trailing in a state Romney won can be considered "doing well", unless your standards are extremely low.

He's not finished of course, but that's because it's June.


Title: Re: CBS News/YouGov: Tight races in CO, FL, NC, WI
Post by: anthony1691 on June 29, 2016, 06:04:08 pm
I'm surprised by how poorly Johnson and Stein are doing in these polls compared to the national ones.
I've been wondering about this as well, where are they picking up their support from?