Talk Elections

According to CNN:

51% to 37% in Florida
45% to 41% in Iowa
50% to 33% in Michigan
48% to 38% in North Carolina
46% to 37% in Ohio
49% to 35% in Pennsylvania
45% to 38% in Virginia

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/29/politics/battleground-polls-donald-trump-hillary-clinton/index.html

Iowa and Virginia are believable.
The rest not so much.

Never heard of that pollster ...

Some results look OK, others crappy (such as Florida, NC, PA etc).

This doesn't seem believable, way too friendly to Clinton.  Also, North Carolina is more democratic than Virginia, which doesn't seem realistic.

Michigan: D+17
Florida: D+14
Pennsylvania: D+14
North Carolina: D+10
Ohio: D+9
Virginia: D+7
Iowa: D+4

Apparently Kasich would lose Florida and North Carolina while winning Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Ohio. And Iowa is 10 points more Republican than Florida and Pennsylvania, apparently.

https://ballotpedia.org/Polling

::)

With Johnson:

()

https://ballotpedia.org/Polling
They'll have a Q and A at 12:30PM

Wow, those numbers would be in line with the Washington Post poll. I don't think they're accurate though. Clinton does lead in all of them (NC too) but not by that much

New Poll: Florida President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220160622249)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 34%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://ballotpedia.org/Polling)

New Poll: Iowa President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920160622249)

Summary: D: 38%, R: 36%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://ballotpedia.org/Polling)

New Poll: Michigan President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2620160622249)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 30%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://ballotpedia.org/Polling)

New Poll: North Carolina President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720160622249)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 37%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://ballotpedia.org/Polling)

Would be amazing, but no.

New Poll: Ohio President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920160622249)

Summary: D: 41%, R: 34%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://ballotpedia.org/Polling)

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220160622249)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 32%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://ballotpedia.org/Polling)

New Poll: Virginia President by Ballotpedia/Evolving Strategies/Opinion Access Corporation on 2016-06-22 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120160622249)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 35%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://ballotpedia.org/Polling)

Excellent News!

If Clinton wins Nevada, Florida, Michigan, Trump must win Ohio, Penns.,
Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Iowa.

LOL. The Trumpster is in big trouble. I think he’ll lose all of these states. His campaign will go down in flames on election day.

It is all consistent with an R collapse in the Presidential race. Shifting the margins between Iowa and North Carolina would make some sense.

It is also consistent with CNN hiring a pollster that doesn't have an idea of what it is doing.

Michigan at D+17, Pennsylvania at D+14, and Virginia at D+7 are not far out of range of the 2008 election. I've seen some horrible polls for Trump in Florida; in a wave election what looks like an outlier could be a reality.

But even significant cutbacks of some of these results (let us say Florida to D+4, North Carolina to D+2, and Ohio to D+3 suggest one thing: Donald Trump is not going to be President of the United States. Michigan at D+17 indicates about a 55-45 margin for Hillary Clinton in a nationwide race.  

Wow... those are some really trashy polls. Absolute garbage.

The IA poll catches my eye, though. I have always believed that IA might be the first state to flip to the Republicans in a close and competitive race.

CNN is actually not a trash pollster. I doubt the Trumpster will lose these states by these margins, but he will lose them all.

CNN had nothing to do with these polls.

They only reported them ...

Yeah.  Its Ballotpedia.  Maybe Atlas should start conducting polls, I'm sure we'll do just as well as they did.

If you have 50.000€ to spend, sure ...

Also, which pollster should be used ?

GORGEOUS!

Benchmark Politics @benchmarkpol

The Ballotpedia poll is the bombshell of the day - that said, the methodology looks VERY good. Traditional polling + Cell phones.
10:57 AM - 29 Jun 2016


@NateSilver538

If Clinton's up 7% nationally, we're going to see some swing state polls where she's up 12%. And others where she's up 2%. That's normal.
10:14 AM - 29 Jun 2016

Nothing wrong with the methodology from what anyone can tell, but some funny results.

That's just nuts, Trump better hope this poll isn't accurate!

Johnson at >15% in Iowa and Ohio is very important, even if the pollster isn't the best. If he keeps those numbers up, and gets some media attention, then he will qualify for the debates.

With these levels of Democratic support for these states, I can imagine Georgia and Indiana going for Clinton. Maybe South Carolina.

The level of support for Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is high enough to allow a genuine three-way Presidential race. Hillary Clinton loses a little to Johnson, but far from as much as Donald Trump. This may be even more important to deciding what states Hillary Clinton can win.

Even if one discounts some of the anomalous results, one must recognize that the threshold for a Clinton win become a plurality in a three-way race. Maps forthcoming. 

Color me skeptical...

Just shove 'em in the aggregate.

junk junk junk

Obviously this is junk. I mean, NC more Democratic than VA? IA 10 points more Republican than FL? Try harder, Ballotpedia.

Harry Enten checked their methodology and found it OK. Their numbers also match the live-interview national polls which show her up by double digits.

NC D+10 is a pretty special result.

After looking through the methodology and demographics, nothing appears out of place. Unless the pollster is just terrible at contacting a representative group, these polls are legit.

Well I do know that I'd love for those polls to be accurate. However, and not to say that this is junk, but I would like to see more polls from different pollsters back these numbers up. It just seems too good to be true ()

ayy lmao

Trash all around here, but NC being more Democratic than VA is particularly funny.

Awesome if true, but let's face it, it's not!