Talk Elections

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/poll-clinton-leads-trump-how-would-november-look-without-him-n603496

She leads Trump 41% to 38%.

She led Trump 42% to 36% in the last NBC/SurveyMonkey poll, taken a week prior to this one.

Wrong. Clinton leads Trump 48/43 (+5) in a head-to-head match up. Clinton also leads Trump 41/38 (+3) with Johnson and Stein in the mix.

Source: https://www.scribd.com/document/317453619/NBC-News-SurveyMonkey-Toplines-and-Methodology-6-27-7-3

Lol no. Considering Stein and Johnson will be on the ballot in the election, I think it is much more accurate to include the poll that includes them.

You reported the poll disingenuously by not mentioning them at all.

Stein and Johnson are never getting that % of the vote nationwide so the head to head D v. R contest is more accurate

Nope. NBC reported the poll disingenuously by refusing to release their numbers.

Yet the numbers are above in my post.

You know those other matchups are irrelevant.

But she is going to sink even lower after the "extremely careless" remark that undercuts her experience argument.

Hillary only managing a 3-point lead against DONALD TRUMP of all people shows how immensely beatable she is. Any Republican who manages to lose this election is simply a terrible candidate. As simple as that.

5-point lead if it's a head-to-head match up.

Donald Trump has not lost this election yet.

The usual village idiots up in arms about statistically insignificant moves in junky online tracking polls. Sad!

I think the measuring stick we've been using has included third-parties, if polled.

In any event, it fits the narrative that the race is inching back slightly towards Trump. You're realistically in a 3-5 point band as opposed to a 5-7 point one. The post-nomination bounce for Clinton has evaporated.

If you're objective about this race, it should not be a blowout.

If it were just one poll, that's one thing. But the other polling also suggests that the race is tightening a bit. It's nothing to be excited about or panic about pre-convention in either side of the aisle, but it's Atlas, so everyone's going to overreact.

I swear, as much as I want him to, Gary Johnson is not going to get more than 5% of the vote and Stein won't get more than 1.

1) Open seat election.
2) Polarized electorate.

It doesn't suggest a blowout on either side.

Yeah.  It's obvious Trump was a disaster candidate if the goal was to win (this was clear sometime by mid-May I'd say, when he didn't back down on his previous style and pivot), hence why many liberals like smilo pretended to support Trump so it would be easier for Hillary to win and enact a liberal agenda.  But who knows?  Obviously, Trump will probably lose because of his foot-in-the-mouth, but it would be a glorious day if somehow, the liberals could finally lose a general election again.

That won't happen with a conventional candidate. Only with an erratic like Trump. The sooner you realize that, the better.

Otherwise, be prepared for a permanent Democratic majority bordering tyranny in the many years to come.

Those matchups are irrelevant since those people haven't put themselves through the meat grinder of a campaign, so those are actually very pitiful numbers for Ryan and Romney. I do agree she would've been the underdog against Kasich.

Well, IceSpear, I don't agree even that. Kasich was largely unknown and he would also have been demonized by the Democratic smear machine, if he had become the nominee. And being low energy, bland and unremarkable, he would certainly have not been immune to such attacks.

He would've been attacked, but he also would've had his reputation as a moderate hero, sane and reasonable Republican, etc. to fall back on. The media also would've heavily backed him over Hillary, as opposed to now where they're backing Hillary reluctantly. His numbers and favorability definitely would've fallen, but I think he'd have a modest edge now, around the same size as the one Hillary currently has. He wouldn't be a lock or anything, just like Hillary is not a lock now.

So to sum up -

A guy who didn't even come close to the nomination but maintained a very positive campaign that was entirely based on appeal beyond Republicans is ahead of her by 8.

A guy who knew that he would be savaged in a Republican primary and decided not to take that hit is ahead by only 2.

And the last Republican nominee is behind both?

Imagine the sheer decline in their numbers if they had decided to actually run.

Since no one’s going to post the Johnson and Stein numbers, I guess it falls to me:

Clinton 41%
Trump 38%
Johnson 9%
Stein 5%

Trump can't manage to get more than 45% in most polls. If anything his ceiling is 45% and he's headed for a double digit loss.

Maybe you been on vacation ?