Talk Elections

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/07/iowa-poll-trump-clinton-running-close-225409
http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IA_071216/
http://www.monmouth.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=40802209099

Trump 44
Clinton 42
Johnson 6
Stein 1
Other 2
Undecided 6

Women
Clinton 54
Trump 33

Men
Clinton 29
Trump 56

<50
Clinton 32 (not a typo)
Trump 51
Johnson 7
Other 3

>=50
Clinton 50
Trump 38
Johnson 4
Other 1

Wow, men.

Ah, summertime. When Iowa loves to tease Republicans before planting itself firmly in the Democratic column in the fall.

They have Clinton winning voters over 50, but losing voters over 50. Pretty odd.

A gender gap can work both ways. Men don't like Lying Crooked Hillary! that much.

Excellent result from an excellent pollster!

It is indeed pretty odd.

Brace yourselves fellow Hillbots. We may be in for a streak of ugly polls for the remainder of July. There's the email stuff which the polls have yet to gauge the full effect of, then he'll have his VP pick, then the RNC.

Beet, please try to stay calm. :P

THE POLLS DON'T MATTER
TRUMP CAN'T OVERCOME A 6 POINT DEFICIT

They have kids voting for Trump and adults voting for Clinton. Hot garbage.

Kids aren't voting though. This poll qualifies my parents with under 50.

If Trump is winning Iowa by 2, then he is most likely leading nationally.

Good news for Hillary: more voters think that she "looks out for the little guy" by 8%

Just throw it in the average.

They had an NV poll with her up 4 and the 2 national polls are +1 and +3 for her, so it would seem it's tight for now. I expect him to pull ahead after the RNC, provided it is not a complete clusterf**k.

Iowa is a potentially problematic state for Hillary. It's true that polls also showed Romney doing well in IA in the summer of 2012 (and there were articles written about how Romney was sure to win IA), but it's clearly a state she has to watch out for.

I am of the opinion that the RNC will be just that. :)

Looks like iowa got a burst of energy and wants to redeem itself

The age crosstabs seem a bit absurd.

Nice. IA might be the first state to flip to the GOP in a competitive close race.

E-Mail fallout.

And especially bad for Hillary, because she spent like 50 Mio. $ already in the swing states to Trump's 0$.

Also funny how she struggles against him, while every other Dem. candidate would kick this racist fu**er to the curb.

Funny, a month ago it was,

"Hillary hasn't even started running ads yet!!! This is going to be a slaughter when she runs ads and Trump can't."

Maybe she just shouldn't...

I guess this means we can probably move Iowa, Ohio, and North Carolina over to Trump if we're really interested in the current state of the race.

Sigh. The first real shift is happening, and it scares the sh-t out of me.

I'll be interested in FL, OH, WI and PA polls tomorrow

Poll is probably off but it'd be pretty funny if Trump getting less PV than Romney nationally but still beating him in EVs.

Where does it say that those will be released tomorrow ?

This poll only has 401 respondents, that's really low.

Quinnipiac- FL, OH, PA
MU Law- WI

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/752510451863416832
CO by Monmouth

https://twitter.com/QuinnipiacPoll/status/752915537521410048
FL, OH, PA by Quinnipiac

Cool.

Add MO (from PPP) in the next few days.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/missouri-question-suggestions.html

Here we go again...you're getting as bad as Beet, man.

Polls ebb and flow. External events are going to effect the race. This fantasy that Hillary (or any other Democrat for that matter) would just coast and be crushing Trump in a landslide the entire campaign was/is a ridiculous wet dream.

I don't know what you mean by "real shift." Were none of the previous massive shifts in the polling "real?" She was crushing Trump by like 20 points in June 2015. Then it became MoE. Then she crushed him again. Then it became MoE. Then she crushed him again. Now it looks like it's on its way to becoming MoE again.

Jesus Christ calm down. One bad poll does not mean a state is going to go for Trump in November!

Teh sky is falling ;)

The sky is always falling on Atlas, one way or another.

It's one data point 4 months before an election. Not quite sure why people are freaking out either way. Yay poll. Nay poll.. It will matter for naught a few months from now.

Yes, I've gotten whiplash from how many times Hillary has went from LBJ 2.0 to Martha Coakley 2.0 on this forum.

Monmouth is the new Gravis.

When was the last time it wasn't?

Iowa was a great fit for Barack Obama, who seemed to know farm policy well enough to win by a  landslide margin in a US Senate race in Illinois. He got lots of votes outside of Greater Chicago -- and if you have ever driven the deathly-dull Interstates of Illinois to the south and west of Chicagoland, you realize how rural "downstate Illinois" is. Iowa outside of Des Moines, Council Bluffs, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and the two of the four Quad Cities  is much like rural Illinois, Indiana, or Ohio.

Obama did not do well with rural America, but he did have some good position papers in 2008. One was on the meth epidemic. Farmers were getting their anhydrous ammonia stolen, and the thieves who stole it often left the spigots open, the anhydrous ammonia often spilling over into pastures where livestock were. That killed livestock, basically destroying farmers; wealth.
Obama has been nasty to meth.
  
John Kerry lost Iowa in 2004, and Al Gore came close to losing it in 2000. Need we remind ourselves that Joni Ernst won the US Senate seat in contest in Iowa in 2014? Senator Chuck Grassley continues to lead in polls for the Senate race.

Democrats dare not get complacent about Iowa this year. This state can go R.