Talk Elections

VA:

Clinton 44, Trump 37

CO:

Clinton 44, Trump 34

Another double digit lead in Colorado, and wow at the Virginia margin.

CO = Freedom State!

CO and VA are in all-out Freedom Mode.

Here's the full poll. The third party trial heats are hilarious

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/07/13/fox-news-poll-71316-clinton-tops-trump-by-7-points-in-virginia/

Likely Dem Colorado! Probably Likely Dem Virginia!

Pennsylvania Pennsylvania Pennsylvania
Florida Florida Florida
Ohio Ohio Ohio

As expected.

Third party trial heats:

Virginia

Clinton 39
Trump 34
Johnson 10
Stein 4

Colorado

Clinton 37
Trump 28!!!!!!
Johnson 13
Stein 6

So you're telling me that CO/VA are going to be D+4, while OH/PA/FL are all R+1 or 2? Okay then.

Yes. And it has been obvious since the last fall.

The most recent FOX national poll had Clinton +6, so this seems pretty believable. It's probably best not to compare one poll's state numbers to another poll's national numbers to draw a conclusion.

Have polls ever been more schizophrenic than the past 3 days?

This was always true.

Trump could still lose with all 3 of those if Clinton wins NC

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280-258 for Hillary

NC is not in play.

Yeah but Clinton won't win NC if she's losing those three.

Just as I'm not worried about Trump's 41-44% leads, I'm not reassured with Hillary's. I cannot understand why everyone cares about these polls with so many undecideds or third party votes. Is there any indication at this point which way they will break in the end?

Yeah, the polling shows Clinton with a solid lead there, so I guess you're right

Yes it is. It has too many educated people for Trump to win and he is losing the demographic.

But it doesn't have the Virginia statists.

With this kind of big margin, could she win Scott Tipton's district?

Hillary is dominating! Also shows that Trump NEEDS PA!

He won't get it. You guys always think PA is gonna go your way and it's the same song and dance. Ohio is possible for the GOP though

Trump or not, PA is pretty much a must-win state for ANY Republican presidential candidate. Bush had CO, NV, NC and VA all locked up for him, he didn't need PA.

Solid topline results for both states.

I wish this poll had an area code cross-tab like PPP does so I could see how much Trump is getting crushed in NOVA.

With Hillary leading 76-5 with blacks, and Trump leading whites 45-29, but Hillary still up 7, means she's wiping the floor with him with Hispanics and Asians.

Meanwhile Johnson's getting 11% of Republicans in VA. Sad!

This is precisely the reason why Trump is the most electable of all Pub candidates this year. He can win Pennsylvania. The others can't.

Romney pretty much maxed out the white working class vote in the T and lost the state by 5 points. Trump is going to get beaten far worse in the Philly burbs than Romney

Democrats can win in VA while losing the white vote by 20+ points, so those crosstabs aren't unusual.

Trump has a chance in PA, but a +6 poll for him doesn't make him favored (especially since another poll shows Hillary up 9.) Also, you really don't think Kasich would have a chance there?

When there is only one viable path for your candidate to win, they are not going to win.

Its even worse, because if these CO and VA polls are right, Trump needs to go 4 for 4 in FL, OH, PA, and NC.  He's in Romney's situation, where he needs to win every close state in order to win.

Kasich doesn't have the economic message that resonates with normally Dem voting working class whites and blacks.

The assumption here is that Virginia will be slightly more Democrat (+1%) than in 2008 and 2012 and Colorado would be on par roughly with the 2012 turnout numbers (not 2008 or 2004, which trended way more Republican).

This would be in line with a roughly Hillary! +6 national result. Not implausible if one takes the Fox National poll numbers at face value.

I am tired of this one-state Kasich should be our nominee meme from the left/#nevertrump fools. No, he shouldn't. He'd effectively be defined by the Democrats as the fat cat Lehman Brothers exec in the 2008 bailout.

Trump has no chance at PA if the national electorate is Clinton +6. He has to be winning nationally to carry PA. GWB with higher approval ratings and the power of incumbency won nationally by 2.5% and lost PA by 2.5% in 2004. The electorate in that state is pretty static

North Carolina won't vote to the left of Florida in 2016. This map is more realistic if we cede FL, OH, and PA to Trump but are still looking for a Clinton victory:

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Clinton 271-267. Just because no one knows what Utah is doing and it is not moving in alignment with the nation. Though I still strongly doubt a Trump win in Florida or Pennsylvania, ftr.

Due to his unique appeal, there is no need for Trump to be leading by any margin, though I agree that a +6 Clinton margin would make it difficult to imagine him winning PA.

This is the PA map in 2012 where Obama beat Romney by 5:

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Where is Trump going to improve on Romney in the WWC areas? Romney already won those areas decisively 4 years ago. The area that Trump has to do better is the Philly suburbs and he's uniquely appalling there. Remember the Philly suburbs are largely educated and more diverse than the WWC T and Western PA

Agreed on that. There are other states that would fall before PA would in that scenario though and PA would be the cherry on top.

Lucerne County/Scranton area and the bedroom communities of The NYC exurbs in the Poconos would be my guess.

Plus, the coal areas of Western PA where Hillary! shilling for her lefty environmentalist friends stating she wants to put coal miners out of work will be shown on TV over and over and over again.

Shift the 2012 map by 5 points. FL, OH and likely VA along with a good probability of CO, IA and NH, assuming a uniform shift.

Well, I already explained this. He will get more votes from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The kind of voters he will get are normally Dem voters. Plus the turnout will be higher in Trump areas.

THANK YOU FOX! Great numbers!

Polls do not back this up at all.

Possibly, especially with the weakness of Mormons for Trump in the Grand Junction area.

The polls are also modeling a Clinton lead right now. You'd have to assume a Trump lead to get there, which is not based on the race's narrative at the moment and note my other assumption: a uniform shift from 2012.

There really aren't a ton of data points out there right now and some of these pollsters are stuck on RV. Give me more data and I'd agree with you, but as of right now, it's premature to assume any macro regional or micro state-wide shifts.

I'm not arguing that Kasich should be the nominee. I'm saying that, as a Democrat, I'd be significantly more concerned about Hillary's chances if Kasich were her opponent.

That educated white vote collapse is KILLING Trump

Trump can't even win a poll from FOX?! Sad!

Another double digit lead in Colorado. So where is everybody who was concern trolling about how she would lose the state by 90+ points? (I know, polls four months before actual election don't matter, but she seems to be cleaning house in a state where some Atlasians thought she would lose by double digits.)

New Poll: Colorado President by Fox News on 2016-07-12 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820160712039)

Summary: D: 37%, R: 28%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/07/13/fox-news-poll-71316-trump-trails-clinton-in-colorado)

New Poll: Virginia President by Fox News on 2016-07-12 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120160712039)

Summary: D: 39%, R: 34%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2016/07/13/fox-news-poll-71316-clinton-tops-trump-by-7-points-in-virginia)

So if you put these together:
1. A Clinton national lead of 5%
2. Clinton tied or falling behind in OH/PA/FL
3. Clinton ahead by double digits in CO (Fox, Monmouth)

Does the battleground map now look like this?

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Because as weird as that looks, that's what polling is telling me.

The denizens of Colorado are a peaceful, pot smoking people. They hated the shrill bitch, but Trump kills their buzz even more. Hillary will protect their right to stay blazed 420, and we know that is the only issue 100% of Coloradans care about.

Is Georgia really a toss-up? The RCP map has it that way, but the poll-average has Trump +4. I dont think Georgia is in play (i would put in lean trump for now untill beter polls for Clinton will show up) and I doubt Arizona is. That said: these polls are far off from where Trump has to be. He's got to improve his overall numbers. Maybe a shift in Obama's approval ratings will help, i've noticed they are trending down for the last two weeks.

My main point is these polls are ridiculous.  If Clinton is up that much nationally, but even in FL/OH/PA, she must be gaining elsewhere, which actually is reflected in the CO/AZ polls.  I mean, it's feasible there is a northeast-southwest shift, but I'm not putting much stock into it until we see September polls that say the same thing.

GA is probably lean R; Clinton hasn't been ahead in any poll I can remember, but there have been a whole bunch of close ones.

Also been saying since the beginning it's PA OH FL or bust.

The Trump campaign has a few months to build an operation like we've never seen before and pour money into the state of Pennsylvania unforeseen by any previous Republican nominee or they can accept their loss starting now.

I have already explained where Clinton's inflated numbers on the national level come from.

Trump is losing the Dem states big - bigger than Romney. California, for instance.

Trump also has much smaller leads in safe Pub states, such as Texas, Utah, Kansas, Nebraska, Kentucky, Georgia, etc...

But he has better results in the Northeast and the industrial heartland, like New York, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Connecticut, Maine, etc...