Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Castro on July 14, 2016, 09:15:25 am



Title: Morning Consult polls every state
Post by: Castro on July 14, 2016, 09:15:25 am
So, it looks like Morning Consult polled every state from April through June using 57,000 RV responses. The full results can be found from the link below, which has some obvious head-scratchers like Blue Georgia and Red Maine. These are the states that shifted from their last poll.

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https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on July 14, 2016, 09:19:58 am
To be fair, flip Georgia and Maine and that looks... reasonable.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Buh her emails! on July 14, 2016, 09:21:42 am
Damn they polled all 50 states lol.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on July 14, 2016, 09:22:58 am
Plus DC... though Trump getting 20% there is the least believable number on that page.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Sir Mohamed on July 14, 2016, 09:30:43 am
Plus DC... though Trump getting 20% there is the least believable number on that page.

LOL. Maybe a typo. They meant 2.0%.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Gustaf on July 14, 2016, 09:47:03 am
To be fair, 51 polls means a couple are likely to fall outside of the MoE. There ought to be a couple of wacky results.

New Mexico being that close seems unlikely.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Seriously? on July 14, 2016, 09:49:27 am
Not terrible all things considered, even though I still have no clue what a Morning Consult is.

It is a long data collection process from April-June though.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: WI is Safe D on July 14, 2016, 10:07:21 am
If there is a realignment, this is pretty in line with what I would expect it to look like (although GA without AZ is odd).

I'll be ready to declare a NE-SW realignment if polls support that in September.  If it does happen, I have a feeling it will be a one-off thing.  Or two-off, if Trump is running for re-election in 2020.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Ebsy on July 14, 2016, 10:10:10 am
Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: mds32 on July 14, 2016, 10:34:21 am
Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on July 14, 2016, 11:11:02 am
Well, at least they tried to get every state. Some of those numbers are definitely laughable, though.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: pbrower2a on July 14, 2016, 11:22:05 am
Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Carolina? Maine going R?

I'm not using any of this except where I have no poll. And then... no.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Gass3268 on July 14, 2016, 11:23:38 am
Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

It has nothing to do with the pollster, but everything to do with their methodology.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Lief 🐋 on July 14, 2016, 11:24:04 am
Wow! Dominating!


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: nyquil_man on July 14, 2016, 12:32:45 pm
Do we have any numbers on these polls, other than the 57,000 figure? The link only offers percentages. The poster adding them to the polling database is offering figures like 200 and 300, but I can't find a source for these.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on July 14, 2016, 12:45:02 pm
Hey MDS... can you enter all of them, or none of them? Thanks!


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: michelle on July 14, 2016, 12:47:57 pm
What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 01:01:35 pm
Remember when everyone made fun of me for suggesting that ME would be more Republican/competitive than NH? #accolades


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 01:16:42 pm
The most interesting results:

Alaska: Trump +21 (53-32)
Mississippi: Trump +18 (51-33)
Texas: Trump +5.3 (43.5-38.2)

Maine: Trump +2 (40.8-38.8 )
Pennsylvania: Clinton +0.4 (42.5-42.1)
Ohio: Trump +0.8 (41.7-40.9)
Wisconsin: Clinton +2 (41.4-39.4)
Florida: Clinton +0.5 (42.6-42.1)
North Carolina: Trump +3 (43.2-40.2)
Arizona: Trump +7.9 (45.8-37.9)

Iowa: TIE (40.1-40.1)


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: nyquil_man on July 14, 2016, 01:19:14 pm
What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.

I plugged the percentages into my own turnout model and got

Clinton - 42.9%
Trump - 40.1%
Other/Undecided - 17.0%

Interestingly, the model predicted that ME-2 would go to Trump and NE-2 would go to Clinton. But the  calculated sample sizes were so small that I'd hardly give them any credence.

It would be nice if Morning Consult would cough up the actual numbers

Edit: Should have proofread. I incorrectly entered a couple of percentages.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: nyquil_man on July 14, 2016, 01:52:28 pm
Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

I would be fine with these polls being entered -- and grateful that some states are finally being polled -- if there were any evidence that those states were actually polled.

From Morning Consult's methodology: "Morning Consult asked more than 44,000 registered voters nationally over the past three months who they would support in a series of hypothetical general election matchups. We used a statistical technique called multilevel regression and poststratification
(MRP) to construct state-level estimates from the national survey data."

estimates from the national survey data is the operative phrase there. It's an election model from national polling. Not state polling.

Where are you getting the number of respondents for these "polls" you're entering? Are you just making them up?


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: mds32 on July 14, 2016, 01:57:17 pm
Hey MDS... can you enter all of them, or none of them? Thanks!


I took a break I will get there not to worry!


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: michelle on July 14, 2016, 02:00:18 pm
What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.

I plugged the percentages into my own turnout model and got

Clinton - 42.9%
Trump - 40.1%
Other/Undecided - 17.0%

Interestingly, the model predicted that ME-2 would go to Trump and NE-2 would go to Clinton. But the  calculated sample sizes were so small that I'd hardly give them any credence.

It would be nice if Morning Consult would cough up the actual numbers

Edit: Should have proofread. I incorrectly entered a couple of percentages.

Cool, thanks.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: WI is Safe D on July 14, 2016, 02:13:03 pm
The most interesting results:
Quote
Wisconsin: Clinton +2 (41.4-39.4)

lulz.


Title: WA: Other Source: Clinton with commanding lead in Washington
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:13:40 pm
New Poll: Washington President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5320160713106)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 34%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: OR: Other Source: Clinton +9 in Oregon
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:16:31 pm
New Poll: Oregon President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4120160713106)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 36%, U: 19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: BetoBro on July 14, 2016, 02:20:54 pm
LoL at Maine going red and Georgia going blue.


Title: VT: Other Source: Clinton +17 in Vermont
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:22:02 pm
New Poll: Vermont President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5020160713106)

Summary: D: 49%, R: 32%, U: 19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: TN: Other Source: Trump with commanding lead in Tennessee
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:25:27 pm
New Poll: Tennessee President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4720160713106)

Summary: D: 33%, R: 49%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: WY: Other Source: Trump +34 in Wyoming
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:32:13 pm
New Poll: Wyoming President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5620160713106)

Summary: D: 25%, R: 59%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: LA: Other Source: Trump +18 in Louisiana
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:43:11 pm
New Poll: Louisiana President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2220160713106)

Summary: D: 33%, R: 51%, U: 16%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: NE: Other Source: Trump +13 in Nebraska
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:47:14 pm
New Poll: Nebraska President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3120160713106)

Summary: D: 35%, R: 48%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: SC: Other Source: Trump +9 in South Carolina
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:49:13 pm
New Poll: South Carolina President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4520160713106)

Summary: D: 37%, R: 46%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://240753.0)


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: cinyc on July 14, 2016, 02:49:23 pm
Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

I would be fine with these polls being entered -- and grateful that some states are finally being polled -- if there were any evidence that those states were actually polled.

From Morning Consult's methodology: "Morning Consult asked more than 44,000 registered voters nationally over the past three months who they would support in a series of hypothetical general election matchups. We used a statistical technique called multilevel regression and poststratification
(MRP) to construct state-level estimates from the national survey data."

estimates from the national survey data is the operative phrase there. It's an election model from national polling. Not state polling.

Where are you getting the number of respondents for these "polls" you're entering? Are you just making them up?

I don't think these are polls in the tradition sense, either.  Morning Consult is using regression on a large, multi-state poll response database to try to model what the results might be in each state.   The variables they chose include state age, education and income along with state-specfic economic variables, like unemployment.  Morning Consult claims this is more accurate than actual state-based polling, based on a 2012 study, but it is not polling in the traditional sense.  It might be the wave of the future, though.

Back in April, Morning Consult also separated state-specific interviews and stratified the data to create something that would approximate a state poll with special sauce, albeit one taken from January to April.   But doesn't appear that they did that here.  The April state special sauce poll results differed from the MRP estimates in some states.

I'm not sure that we should be including these "polls" in the database, but that's not up to me.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: cinyc on July 14, 2016, 02:52:58 pm
Test


Title: KS: Other Source: Trump +11 in Kansas
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:54:55 pm
New Poll: Kansas President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=2020160713106)

Summary: D: 35%, R: 46%, U: 19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: FL: Other Source: Very close between Clinton and Trump in Florida
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 02:58:42 pm
New Poll: Florida President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220160713106)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 42%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Wiz in Wis on July 14, 2016, 03:01:37 pm
Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.

I would be fine with these polls being entered -- and grateful that some states are finally being polled -- if there were any evidence that those states were actually polled.

From Morning Consult's methodology: "Morning Consult asked more than 44,000 registered voters nationally over the past three months who they would support in a series of hypothetical general election matchups. We used a statistical technique called multilevel regression and poststratification
(MRP) to construct state-level estimates from the national survey data."

estimates from the national survey data is the operative phrase there. It's an election model from national polling. Not state polling.

Where are you getting the number of respondents for these "polls" you're entering? Are you just making them up?

Ooof... these aren't polls, should definitely not be entered. Thanks for reading the fine print.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: cinyc on July 14, 2016, 03:05:09 pm
I think this thread is broken.  It ate two responses I had, explaining why these Morning Consult "polls" aren't polls in the traditional sense.  It's multivariable regression, using nationwide responses from January to June, then controlling for state demographic factors like age and income, and economic factors like unemployment.  Morning Consult claims, based on one study, that this is more accurate than actual state-by-state polling - but it is not state-by-state polling. 

In fact, when Morning Consult did this exercise in April, they actually also reported results of in-state only respondents, stratified by some special sauce - and those results differed in some states.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Seriously? on July 14, 2016, 03:14:56 pm
Apparently this mds loser is adding every single poll from this to the database. Sad!

How is that sad? Please you guys add every Democratic pollster you can on there.
Thanks for your effort. That's not easy. The database should be full of data points. I am pretty sure that some of these polls may be one of a handful for some states.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: olowakandi on July 14, 2016, 03:45:05 pm
OH isn't LTrump


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 14, 2016, 03:48:24 pm
Oh my heavens, you're quite the fussy lot. Seek help. mds, thank you for performing this time-consuming task for us. Greatly appreciated. The rest of y'all can get lost.


Title: ND: Other Source: Trump +8 in North Dakota
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 04:21:16 pm
New Poll: North Dakota President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3820160713106)

Summary: D: 36%, R: 44%, U: 20%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: SD: Other Source: Trump +15 in South Dakota
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 04:22:43 pm
New Poll: South Dakota President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4620160713106)

Summary: D: 32%, R: 47%, U: 21%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: RI: Other Source: Clinton with big lead in Rhode Island
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on July 14, 2016, 04:24:29 pm
New Poll: Rhode Island President by Other Source on 2016-07-13 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4420160713106)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 36%, U: 17%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://morningconsult.com/trump-vs-clinton-conventions-electoral-college-map/)


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: IceSpear on July 14, 2016, 04:41:30 pm
As bad as some of these are, they've at least had a very positive effect on the Atlas polling map. KY/MS/UT/MN are no longer toss ups.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 14, 2016, 04:43:01 pm
Oh my heavens, you're quite the fussy lot. Seek help. mds, thank you for performing this time-consuming task for us. Greatly appreciated. The rest of y'all can get lost.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: RJEvans on July 14, 2016, 04:59:35 pm
It'll be funny if this was the map. It's a very interesting map and says a lot about each candidate's strengths and weaknesses.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on July 14, 2016, 05:33:14 pm
As bad as some of these are, they've at least had a very positive effect on the Atlas polling map. KY/MS/UT/MN are no longer toss ups.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: dspNY on July 14, 2016, 06:25:50 pm
What are the national popular vote numbers? I'm sure that they would be super accurate, considering this is of 57,000 RV.

I plugged the percentages into my own turnout model and got

Clinton - 42.9%
Trump - 40.1%
Other/Undecided - 17.0%

Interestingly, the model predicted that ME-2 would go to Trump and NE-2 would go to Clinton. But the  calculated sample sizes were so small that I'd hardly give them any credence.

It would be nice if Morning Consult would cough up the actual numbers

Edit: Should have proofread. I incorrectly entered a couple of percentages.

Clinton +3 nationally is actually reasonable after her bad week considering the fact she was +6 or +7 before


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: cinyc on July 14, 2016, 06:29:27 pm
Some responses, including mine, aren't publishing on the first page of this thread.  I'll try this again for the third time.  If the responses on the prior page start showing up, please forgive me:

These Morning Consult state "polls" aren't polls in the traditional sense.  As I understand it, Morning Consult took subsamples of their national January-June nationwide poll responses and used multiple regression to reweight them for state-specific demographic factors, like age and income, and economic data, like unemployment rate, to come up with a figure for the Trump, Clinton and Other percentage in each of the 50 states.  This MRP method is allegedly more accurate than actual state polls according to one study they cite - but is not a traditional poll.  Perhaps this is the wave of the future, but again, it's not a traditional poll.

Back in April, they not only did MRP regression, but also took subsamples of respondents from January to April in each state, weighed them for demographic factors, and put out statewide special-sauce poll numbers for those states.  The results of these special-sauce state polls differed from the MRP results in some states.  It's not clear that Morning Consult did that this time.

Given that, I don't think these "polls" should be entered into the database - but that decision is not made by me.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: dspNY on July 14, 2016, 06:32:37 pm
Some responses, including mine, aren't publishing on the first page of this thread.  I'll try this again for the third time.  If the responses on the prior page start showing up, please forgive me:

These Morning Consult state "polls" aren't polls in the traditional sense.  As I understand it, Morning Consult took subsamples of their national January-June nationwide poll responses and used multiple regression to reweight them for state-specific demographic factors, like age and income, and economic data, like unemployment rate, to come up with a figure for the Trump, Clinton and Other percentage in each of the 50 states.  This MRP method is allegedly more accurate than actual state polls according to one study they cite - but is not a traditional poll.  Perhaps this is the wave of the future, but again, it's not a traditional poll.

Back in April, they not only did MRP regression, but also took subsamples of respondents from January to April in each state, weighed them for demographic factors, and put out statewide special-sauce poll numbers for those states.  The results of these special-sauce state polls differed from the MRP results in some states.  It's not clear that Morning Consult did that this time.

Given that, I don't think these "polls" should be entered into the database - but that decision is not made by me.

It can get you a reasonably accurate national horserace number but I agree that these polls shouldn't be in the database because they're not actually polls, but mathematical projections based on subsamples with high margins of error


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: JRP1994 on July 14, 2016, 06:43:42 pm
Some responses, including mine, aren't publishing on the first page of this thread.  I'll try this again for the third time.  If the responses on the prior page start showing up, please forgive me:

These Morning Consult state "polls" aren't polls in the traditional sense.  As I understand it, Morning Consult took subsamples of their national January-June nationwide poll responses and used multiple regression to reweight them for state-specific demographic factors, like age and income, and economic data, like unemployment rate, to come up with a figure for the Trump, Clinton and Other percentage in each of the 50 states.  This MRP method is allegedly more accurate than actual state polls according to one study they cite - but is not a traditional poll.  Perhaps this is the wave of the future, but again, it's not a traditional poll.

Back in April, they not only did MRP regression, but also took subsamples of respondents from January to April in each state, weighed them for demographic factors, and put out statewide special-sauce poll numbers for those states.  The results of these special-sauce state polls differed from the MRP results in some states.  It's not clear that Morning Consult did that this time.

Given that, I don't think these "polls" should be entered into the database - but that decision is not made by me.

It can get you a reasonably accurate national horserace number but I agree that these polls shouldn't be in the database because they're not actually polls, but mathematical projections based on subsamples with high margins of error

Agreed.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Likely Voter on July 14, 2016, 07:17:38 pm
Can we try to do editorialize in the headlines for this subforum? Let's try to stick with 'just the facts' (eg. "Pollster: State/National: Candidate +x"


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 14, 2016, 11:17:29 pm
WY: Trump +34
WV: Trump +28
AK: Trump +21
AL: Trump +19
LA: Trump +18
MS: Trump +18
TN: Trump +16
KY: Trump +14
OK: Trump +14
SD: Trump +14
NE: Trump +12
UT: Trump +12
AR: Trump +11
ID: Trump +11
KS: Trump +11
SC: Trump +10
MO: Trump +9
MT: Trump +9
ND: Trump +9
AZ: Trump +8
IN: Trump +8
TX: Trump +5
NC: Trump +3
ME: Trump +2
OH: Trump +1
IA: Tie
PA: Tie
FL: Clinton +1
NH: Clinton +1
GA: Clinton +1
WI: Clinton +2
MI: Clinton +3
NM: Clinton +3
NV: Clinton +4
CT: Clinton +5
DE: Clinton +5
VA: Clinton +5
CO: Clinton +8
OR: Clinton +9
MN: Clinton +10
NJ: Clinton +10
RI: Clinton +12
IL: Clinton +13
WA: Clinton +14
VT: Clinton +16
MA: Clinton +17
NY: Clinton +17
MD: Clinton +18
CA: Clinton +19
HI: Clinton +19
DC: Clinton +46


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Ebsy on July 14, 2016, 11:22:15 pm
Their junkiest results have to be for Mississippi.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: IceSpear on July 15, 2016, 02:55:54 am
I finished plugging the holes here. I don't know why you guys didn't just go in alphabetical order. :P

CO is now strong D on the Atlas map, while NM is lean D. lol


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: Ebsy on July 15, 2016, 03:36:12 am
I finished plugging the holes here. I don't know why you guys didn't just go in alphabetical order. :P

CO is now strong D on the Atlas map, while NM is lean D. lol
It's very ironic (and unsurprising) that Colorado seems to be Clinton's best swing state at the moment. The ability of certain idiots in bad atlas to call them wrong with consistency is remarkable.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: pbrower2a on July 15, 2016, 07:47:04 pm
For what it is worth, here is the collection of Morning Consult polls of all 50 states.

()

margin   saturation

30+          9
15-29       7
9-14         6
5-8           5
4              4 (usual margin of error)
1-3           2
tie            white  


Useful only in the absence of other evidence. But this said, no way is Hillary Clinton winning New Mexico by a mere 3% or Delaware by a mere 5% or Donald Trump winning Idaho by a mere 11% or Oklahoma by a mere 14%. No way, also, is Hillary Clinton winning Georgia while losing North Carolina.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state: Junkapalooza
Post by: yeah_93 on July 15, 2016, 08:16:18 pm
lol @ Trump getting 20% in DC.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state
Post by: Tender Branson on July 16, 2016, 12:43:41 am
I thought Alaska would be much closer (Trump+10 or something) and Maine seems a bit off as well.

Other than that, not bad results.


Title: Re: Morning Consult polls every state
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on July 17, 2016, 06:32:19 pm
Can we try to do editorialize in the headlines for this subforum? Let's try to stick with 'just the facts' (eg. "Pollster: State/National: Candidate +x"
the previous title was factual tho…?