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Title: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: MT Treasurer on July 15, 2016, 10:14:07 AM Roy Blunt (R, inc.): 41%
Jason Kander (D): 38% Quote Missouri continues to have one of the most underrated Senate races in the country. Roy Blunt leads Jason Kander only 41/38. That closeness is mostly a product of Blunt's unpopularity. Only 31% of voters approve of the job he's doing to 42% who disapprove. One thing that's particularly striking is how poor Blunt's numbers are within his own party- only 49% of Republicans approve of the job he's doing to 26% who disapprove. Kander is actually winning more support now from Republicans (13%) than Blunt is from Democrats (10%) despite Blunt's far longer presence on the statewide scene. Kander is currently known to only 38% of voters in the state, so a lot of the direction this goes may depend on how voters feel about him as they get to know him better over the next 4 months. One thing Blunt does have working in his favor is that among undecided voters in the Senate race 47% are voting for Trump to only 30% for Clinton so if those folks all ended up voting the same party for Senate that they are for President it would double Blunt's lead to 6 points. At any rate this race probably is deserving of more attention than it's getting. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/07/trump-leads-in-missouri-senate-race-gives-dems-opportunity.html Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on July 15, 2016, 10:16:38 AM Which means he's running 7 points behind Trump... I think he'll still pull it out but this has potential to be a sleeper race.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Xing on July 15, 2016, 10:17:21 AM Looks like my prediction was pretty close. If Blunt really is underperforming Trump by 7, that is problematic for him.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Xing on July 15, 2016, 10:24:14 AM Always said that this race is a Tossup. Blunt is more likely to lose than Toomey. I wouldn't go that far, but the fact that Republicans want to put money here, coupled with small leads for Blunt does give me pause. Maybe Lean R is more fitting than Likely R, at this point. Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: RogueBeaver on July 15, 2016, 10:27:44 AM Big trouble? PPP had Blunt +5 last year. Meh.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Brittain33 on July 15, 2016, 10:28:21 AM Blunt is the embodiment of the Washington establishment.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Holmes on July 15, 2016, 10:33:25 AM Kander's a surprisingly good recruit. He really is Blunt's antithesis. Young, proud war vet, not a career politician. If he can hammer that to a large audience in his ads and in the debates, he might have a chance.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: tmthforu94 on July 15, 2016, 11:00:04 AM Kander is a good candidate, but I highly doubt he wins. It looks like undecideds will break for Blunt as he shores up Republican support. I'm very surprised he didn't have a serious primary challenge this year.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: windjammer on July 15, 2016, 11:09:24 AM Blunt is going to win. Mcginty is going to win too.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Bismarck on July 15, 2016, 11:20:14 AM Blunt will win. Missouri is too R now and even if not Trump will save him.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Heisenberg on July 15, 2016, 11:47:37 AM Blunt will win. Missouri is too R now and even if not Trump will save him. Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Ebsy on July 15, 2016, 12:43:17 PM Blunt will win. Missouri is too R now and even if not Trump will save him. Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: syntaxerror on July 15, 2016, 01:37:25 PM If the DSCC was willing to put money into this race then Kander would have a shot.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 15, 2016, 03:50:48 PM 'big trouble'? Nah, Johnson is in big trouble, Blunt just looks like he's in a tougher fight than expected.
Regardless even though its one poll him significantly under performing Trump is enough concern for this race to be considered a Lean R race. Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: IceSpear on July 15, 2016, 04:28:10 PM Great news!
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Maxwell on July 15, 2016, 10:06:35 PM lol @ Trump/Kander voters.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: syntaxerror on July 15, 2016, 11:57:23 PM lol @ Trump/Kander voters. Anti-establishment vote, maybe. Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Miles on July 16, 2016, 12:36:56 AM ^ Well, Kander was winning some 60% Romney counties when he won his SOS race in 2012.
Title: Re: MO-PPP: Blunt in big trouble; only 3 points ahead of Kander Post by: Heisenberg on July 16, 2016, 12:44:05 AM ^ Well, Kander was winning some 60% Romney counties when he won his SOS race in 2012. |