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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: cinyc on July 15, 2016, 03:37:02 pm



Title: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
Post by: cinyc on July 15, 2016, 03:37:02 pm
USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak Poll
Trump 43%
Clinton 40%

Weighted Panel of 3,000 Voters; MoE +/- 3.
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-lat-tracking-poll-20160705-snap-story.html

This is new daily tracking poll, which debuted today.  Some info on the methodology:

Quote
The Daybreak tracking poll differs from traditional polls in two major respects. Rather than questioning a different group of respondents for each poll, the survey relies on a panel, currently consisting of about 3,000 people recruited at random to represent U.S. households.

The panel is part of a larger Understanding America Study conducted by USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research. The election survey is being done in partnership with The Times and USC’s Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics.

Because of the panel design, “we have the same people every time, so changes in the poll are really people changing their minds,” rather than the result of variations in who answers a particular survey, said Arie Kapteyn, the director of the USC Dornsife center, who pioneered the approach for the 2012 election while at Rand Corp.

It appears that they ask "Someone Else" instead of naming Johnson/Stein.  I can't find the numbers for "someone else" or the undecideds in the linked article.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Buh her emails! on July 15, 2016, 03:43:09 pm
Who?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: cinyc on July 15, 2016, 03:46:00 pm

University of Southern California Dornsife College (their Liberal Arts division) and the Los Angeles Times, L.A.'s biggest newspaper.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: JRP1994 on July 15, 2016, 03:46:48 pm
Not sure about USC Dornsife, but LA Times polls have an A- rating by 538


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 15, 2016, 03:56:08 pm
So is this going to be our thread for the daily poll?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: cinyc on July 15, 2016, 03:58:20 pm
More on the methodology here:
https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll

They basically ask 1/7th of the panel who they are going to vote for and the percentage chance they will vote per day, so 450 or so people are requestioned every day.  Everyone theoretically gets asked once a week.  They then weigh the results based on likelihood of vote and demographics to come up with a new topline at midnight (presumably Pacific time) every day, using the previous week's results.  

Friday's results were closer than Thursday's, probably 42-41 Trump, but I can't say for sure because USC didn't provide real numbers, just a graph.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Mehmentum on July 15, 2016, 04:08:19 pm
I guess this means Clinton will lose the election.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Xing on July 15, 2016, 04:40:57 pm
Now I guess Trump will win the PV easily, while losing the EC by more than Romney did.

/s


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Landslide Andy on July 15, 2016, 04:43:48 pm
Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again. :(

Ratings change: Safe D  --> Safe R

Actually, it would be Safe R if Trump led by 1 point. The fact that he leads by 3 makes it Super Ultra Mega Rock Solid R.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Ebsy on July 15, 2016, 04:45:41 pm
LA times literally admits that this is the first poll from the pollster. Total junk.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Seriously? on July 15, 2016, 05:06:45 pm
Wow, after being Safe R two days ago, it now looks as if the election is Safe D again. :(

Ratings change: Safe D  --> Safe R

Actually, it would be Safe R if Trump led by 1 point. The fact that he leads by 3 makes it Super Ultra Mega Rock Solid R.

Come on man, let's not overreact to a few polls. I wonder if Trump will win the popular vote by 3 but lose in a landslide in the Electoral College, though? The NBC polls definitely give me cause for concern! Maybe the election is still Likely D, after all?

Ratings change: Safe R --> Likely D 

Okay, I'll stop.
I am pretty sure we're in this different tranche of how they handle the likely voter or even registered voter electorate right now that is explaining the difference in the polling. Those clinging to a D+5 or D+6 model have Clinton with a lead. Those that are letting the electorate stay where it is based on the sample they get have Trump leading. More data points need to be made available before I can confirm.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: john cage bubblegum on July 15, 2016, 05:09:04 pm
This is like the RAND/American Life Panel tracking poll from 2012 that surveyed the same group of people.  Even if the topline is questionable, it could be good for tracking trends. 

I wonder if RAND itself is going to be doing it again this cycle.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Ebsy on July 15, 2016, 05:21:56 pm
So this actually isn't really a poll and should probably not be recorded as such.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 15, 2016, 05:23:15 pm
LA times literally admits that this is the first poll from the pollster. Total junk.
actually, https://alpdata.rand.org/index.php?page=election2012 The site of the USC polling indicates that this is the exact same team which developed RAND in 2012 and correctly predicted the 2012 election based on their own polling + panelists, so I'd wait to jump to calling something junk just because it doesn't show your candidate ahead...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 15, 2016, 05:24:58 pm
This is like the RAND/American Life Panel tracking poll from 2012 that surveyed the same group of people.  Even if the topline is questionable, it could be good for tracking trends. 

I wonder if RAND itself is going to be doing it again this cycle.
same team that developed that, developed this: https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Maxwell on July 15, 2016, 05:28:17 pm
Questionable methodology.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: cinyc on July 15, 2016, 05:33:58 pm
So this actually isn't really a poll and should probably not be recorded as such.

No.  It's a real tracking poll called a panel survey that uses the same panel over and over again instead of finding a new random sample every day.  The panel is supposedly a representative sample of the electorate (with the pollsters even providing tablets and internet access to those without a computer).   There is no magic in recruiting a new panel every day if the original sample is representative - it just costs the pollster more money.

Panel surveys have been used for tracking polls in the past.  They're probably better for spotting trends than the toplines alone.

The other quirk that this pollster uses is weighing responses based on probability of voting instead of using a traditional likely voter screen.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Ebsy on July 15, 2016, 05:35:49 pm
lol the crosstabs are ridiculous junk as well. We'll see if this s[Inks] tracker improves at all as time goes on, but for now it is firmly in the junk category. The only interesting part for me is that the voters expect Clinton to win by a wide margin.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: Seriously? on July 15, 2016, 05:39:57 pm
lol the crosstabs are ridiculous junk as well. We'll see if this s[Inks] tracker improves at all as time goes on, but for now it is firmly in the junk category. The only interesting part for me is that the voters expect Clinton to win by a wide margin.
I don't think that's a good narrative for Clinton. As this race stays closer than expected and Trump looks like he can pull it off, the undecideds may think it's OK to get aboard the Trump train.

It's usually the candidate that beats the expectation game that gets the boost in from the undecideds in the end.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: pbrower2a on July 15, 2016, 06:06:30 pm
Dubious methodology. Questionable randomness.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: Sat 7/16 - Tie
Post by: cinyc on July 16, 2016, 11:54:23 am
Today's numbers:
Trump 42.2%
Clinton 41.8%
(951 respondents)

Yesterday was:
Trump 42.1%
Clinton 40.9%
(1193 respondents)

http://www.latimes.com/politics/


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: Sat 7/16 - Tie
Post by: michelle on July 16, 2016, 12:02:57 pm
That's a good trend. It went from Trump +1.2 to Trump +0.4. If this continues, then Clinton will win every vote on Election Day.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: Sat 7/16 - Tie
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 17, 2016, 02:12:07 am
New numbers:
Trump - 42.8
Clinton - 41.7
https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll
based on 1,828 respondents


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/19 - Tie
Post by: cinyc on July 18, 2016, 02:27:24 am
7/17 Numbers:
Trump 42.9%
Clinton 42.2%


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/17 - Trump +1
Post by: Donnie on July 18, 2016, 03:10:47 am
I am not sure about this tracking poll, but L.A Times had always
very accurate polls in the past.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/17 - Trump +1
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 18, 2016, 03:12:49 am
I am not sure about this, but L.A Times had always
very accurate polls in the past.

Considering the LA Times was at lengths to point out that they're new and untested, I wouldn't invest too much into this.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/17 - Trump +1
Post by: Likely Voter on July 18, 2016, 01:45:59 pm
This seems to be the first daily tracking poll. Once there are more we can convert this thread into a daily tracking megathread. Weekly trackers should get their own threads each week as each week is a new sample.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/17 - Trump +1
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 19, 2016, 02:20:59 am
new numbers:
Trump 43.3
Clinton 42.2


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/18 - Trump +1
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 20, 2016, 02:14:40 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/18 - Trump +1
Post by: Arch on July 20, 2016, 02:21:37 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Aren't his numbers supposed to be going up doing convention time?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/18 - Trump +1
Post by: Xing on July 20, 2016, 02:22:56 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Aren't his numbers supposed to be going up doing convention time?

It'll probably take a couple of days for his convention bounce (assuming he gets one) to become apparent.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/18 - Trump +1
Post by: Buh her emails! on July 20, 2016, 02:38:22 am
Damn she's catching up.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/18 - Trump +1
Post by: cinyc on July 20, 2016, 03:36:06 pm
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/19):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

I see Trump 42.8, Clinton 42.6 if you're into decimals.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/19 - Tie
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 21, 2016, 02:17:30 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/19 - Tie
Post by: Arch on July 21, 2016, 02:18:19 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.

It's as if the RNC isn't happening.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/19 - Tie
Post by: Xing on July 21, 2016, 02:19:12 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.

It's as if the RNC isn't happening.

Better yet, it is happening, and people outside of the convention are having the appropriate reaction.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/19 - Tie
Post by: JerryArkansas on July 21, 2016, 05:00:49 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.

It's as if the RNC isn't happening.
No, it's just having the exact opposite effect that most conventions have on your numbers, as it appears in this poll.  We'll see if it translates into others as well.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/19 - Tie
Post by: dspNY on July 21, 2016, 07:53:34 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/20):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

as a note, Clinton now leads in decimals for the first time, 43.4 to 42.8.

It's as if the RNC isn't happening.

The RNC is happening...Trump is getting a negative bounce/anti-bounce


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/20 - Clinton +1
Post by: Wiz in Wis on July 21, 2016, 09:45:14 am
Interestingly, this is probably a better reflection of "conversion" rather than "excitement."  A lot of bounce in polls from week to week is who feels more excited about their candidate, or angrier about the opposition, and will finish a survey. Not a whole ton of people honestly change their minds from week to week, but they do change their enthusiasm. This poll's structure is better at looking into actual preferences, since it's a panel. So, the GOP convention isn't just depressing GOP enthusiasm, it's also pushing Trump's voters to undecided/3rd party voters, and undecided/3rd party voters to Clinton as well.

Way to go Donnie!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/20 - Clinton +1
Post by: Ebsy on July 21, 2016, 01:56:20 pm
They're weighting it by who they feel is more likely to vote, so perhaps the convention has been demoralizing Trump supporters.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/20 - Clinton +1
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 22, 2016, 02:14:37 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/21):
Trump - 43 (+/-)
Clinton - 43 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day
However, Trump has retaken the decimal point lead, 43.4 to 43.2


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/21 - Tie
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 23, 2016, 02:14:27 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/22):
Trump - 44 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (-1)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/21 - Tie
Post by: Interlocutor on July 23, 2016, 03:50:49 am
Trump landslide imminent!!1!1!!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/22 - Trump +2
Post by: cinyc on July 23, 2016, 07:50:58 am
If you heart decimals, it's Trump 44.2, Clinton 42.3.

By the way, for my headline, I've been rounding the difference, not the numbers.  So if it's Clinton +0.6, I say Clinton +1.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/22 - Trump +2
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 24, 2016, 02:15:05 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/22 - Trump +2
Post by: RJEvans on July 24, 2016, 07:43:41 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Anyone have a demographic breakdown?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: cinyc on July 24, 2016, 09:17:59 am
With decimals, it's 45.1 Trump, 41.7 Clinton.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/22 - Trump +2
Post by: Classic Conservative on July 24, 2016, 09:49:00 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Anyone have a demographic breakdown?
No, I can't find any


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/22 - Trump +2
Post by: RJEvans on July 24, 2016, 10:13:29 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Anyone have a demographic breakdown?
No, I can't find any

Well if they are accurate then it is scary for Democrats because the RNC by any objective opinion was a disaster.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: Ebsy on July 24, 2016, 02:15:06 pm
I think they took the poll down. The links no longer take you to the daily tracker.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/22 - Trump +2
Post by: Gass3268 on July 24, 2016, 02:20:02 pm
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/23):
Trump - 45 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Anyone have a demographic breakdown?
No, I can't find any

Well if they are accurate then it is scary for Democrats because the RNC by any objective opinion was a disaster.

Did you really expect for Trump not to get at least a small bump from his convention?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: Interlocutor on July 24, 2016, 02:21:16 pm
At least he can reach his high ceiling of 45% again. If he can break that and reach closer to 50% by next week, then it'll be high alert at the DNC


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 24, 2016, 06:13:42 pm
https://uasdata.usc.edu/data/election-poll


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 25, 2016, 02:43:12 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/24):
Trump - 45 (+/-)
Clinton - 41 (-1)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: Ebsy on July 25, 2016, 03:51:37 am
lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 25, 2016, 05:21:51 am
lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
well I mean it's basically the same thing as the CNN poll so...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 25, 2016, 05:39:59 am
lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
It's 5 Day Rolling.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/24 - Trump +4
Post by: cinyc on July 25, 2016, 09:54:58 am
7/24: Trump 45.4, Clinton 41.3 for Trump +4.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/24 - Trump +4
Post by: Chaddyr23 on July 25, 2016, 03:22:19 pm
Woah, how is 'other ethnicity' a Trump demographic?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: The Vorlon on July 25, 2016, 09:41:49 pm


This poll is METHODOLOGICALLY a clone of a poll run by the Rand Corporation in 2012.

The Rand poll did VERY well - their final poll has Obama +4, and the actual result was Obama +3.9.

Two questions:

Did Rand just "get lucky" in 2012? (Zogby did well in 1996, and Rasmussen was awesome in 2004, so one swallow does not spring make)

The Rand Corporation is anal retentive/obsessive compulsive on quality control, is USC in the same league?

This is a very interesting, but ultimately unproven polling methodology.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: The Vorlon on July 25, 2016, 09:52:00 pm
So this actually isn't really a poll and should probably not be recorded as such.

In 2012 The Rand Corporation poll predicted Obama +4, and the actual result was Obama + 3.9

This is a VERY serious methodology.  The Rand corporation has had 32 (!) persons associated with the company win various Nobel prizes for everything from economics to physics.

I have questions if USC can match Rand in terms of anal retentive/obsessive compulsive validation and quality control, but this is indeed a VERY serious poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: The Vorlon on July 25, 2016, 09:57:36 pm
Dubious methodology. Questionable randomness.

This poll is different, but most things touched by the Rand Corporation are well outside the box.

For the record... In 2012 Rand predicted Obama +4.0% - The actual was +3.9$

It could have simply been beginner's luck, but the Rand corporation is a VERY serious research organization - Staff members at Rand have won 32 (!) Nobel Prizes over the years.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: The Vorlon on July 25, 2016, 10:07:26 pm
lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
It's 5 Day Rolling.

7 day rolling actually....


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/24 - Trump +4
Post by: Interlocutor on July 26, 2016, 02:15:34 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/25):
Trump - 46.3 (+.9)
Clinton - 41.1 (-.2)
(#) denotes change from previous day


3 point bounce for Trump and 1 point drop for Clinton in last 7 days


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on July 26, 2016, 11:48:12 am
lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
It's 5 Day Rolling.

7 day rolling actually....

     So yeah, outliers are heavily suppressed in the numbers here.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: michelle on July 26, 2016, 02:09:13 pm
Demographics (shrinking leads are italicized, majority leads are bolded):

Overall: Trump +5

Age
18-34: Trump +2
35-64: Trump +4
65+: Trump +11

Education
HS or less: Trump +15
some college: Trump +12
BA+: Clinton +10

Household Income
$0-35k: Clinton +7
$35-75k: Trump +17
$75k+: Trump +3

Race
White: Trump +24
African American: Clinton +79
Other ethnicity: Trump +28
Hispanic: Clinton +22

Gender
Female: Clinton +6
Male: Trump +16


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Ebsy on July 26, 2016, 02:17:51 pm
Looking at the demographics seem to indicate they have done a very poor job constructing a representative sample.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: The Other Castro on July 26, 2016, 02:22:34 pm
Lol Trump does not lead by more among Whites than Clinton does among Hispanics.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: WeAreDoomed on July 26, 2016, 02:23:30 pm
This is one of the worst polls taken in a while.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 26, 2016, 02:28:26 pm
It never fails to amaze me how statistically illiterate people here are when all we do all day is analyze polls.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/23 - Trump +3
Post by: Mallow on July 26, 2016, 02:31:56 pm
lol this is such junk

I can't be the only one thinking that it is pretty much statistically impossible for them day after day, with such a small n of respondents, to have results that only vary a point or two. There should be more variation with such a small sample.
It's 5 Day Rolling.

7 day rolling actually....

So the "July 25th" result is really centered on July 22nd. That explains why the convention bounce didn't apparently start until after the convention.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: The Other Castro on July 26, 2016, 02:42:24 pm
It never fails to amaze me how statistically illiterate people here are when all we do all day is analyze polls.

Well if we assume an MOE of +-4%, we can add 4 to Clinton and subtract 4 from Trump. Ok now Clinton's leading by 3 so we're looking good so far but we're not done yet. If we assume 95% confidence, we can take another 5% confidence points off Trump and Clinton's now leading by 8 points. So really, this poll says Clinton leads by 8.

-StatesPoll's evil twin brother


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: The Vorlon on July 26, 2016, 02:55:52 pm
It never fails to amaze me how statistically illiterate people here are when all we do all day is analyze polls.

They real should teach statistics, or at least math and critical thinking in the schools.

Why did they stop doing that BTW?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National: Trump +3
Post by: The Vorlon on July 26, 2016, 03:04:13 pm
Dubious methodology. Questionable randomness.

A factual point of information:

The Rand Corporation (or the "Bland Corporation" for you Dr. Strangelove fans) ran a poll based upon essentially identical methodology in 2012 and came within 0.1% of predicting the actual margin of victory.  Rand had Obama +4.0, the actual was Obama +3.9

The Rand Corporation has also had 32 members of it's staff win the Nobel Prize in various disciplines over the years.  This may be an internet based poll but it's about as far from John Zogby as you can get.  RAnd is not a bunch of underfunded lightweights to put it very mildly.

The methodology is new, and unproven over a long term series of races,  so I would personally put this poll under the "worth watching, but unproven" category - but that being said this is a VERY serious and legitimate effort to get it right.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 27, 2016, 02:14:56 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/26):
Trump - 47 (+1)
Clinton - 40 (-1)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Ebsy on July 27, 2016, 02:16:29 am
Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 27, 2016, 02:20:45 am
Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
Still the most accurate poll in 2012, sill matches the overall trump trend, whoops


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Ebsy on July 27, 2016, 02:22:15 am
Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
Still the most accurate poll in 2012, sill matches the overall trump trend, whoops
It's not a poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 27, 2016, 02:27:45 am
Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
Still the most accurate poll in 2012, sill matches the overall trump trend, whoops
It's not a poll.
It is a poll, it's included in the RCP average and it's included on 538.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Buh her emails! on July 27, 2016, 02:57:13 am
It boggles my mind people actually support him.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 27, 2016, 04:36:19 am
Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
Still the most accurate poll in 2012, sill matches the overall trump trend, whoops
It's not a poll.
It is a poll, it's included in the RCP average and it's included on 538.

As we know, what RCP chooses to use or not isn't a vote of confidence.

I've been ignoring this thing and will continue to do so - those cross-tabs show me I was right to do so.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 27, 2016, 06:12:52 am
Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
If one is intrested in trend, it indeed gives some information. I don't believe, Trump is +7 now, but I don't believe either, Clinton was +12 as ABC/Washington and Ipsos/Reuters showed.

Or is ABC pollster a trash heap as well?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 27, 2016, 06:15:53 am
Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
If one is intrested in trend, it indeed gives some information. I don't believe, Trump is +7 now, but I don't believe either, Clinton was +12 as ABC/Washington and Ipsos/Reuters showed.

Or is ABC pollster a trash heap as well?

Clinton was never ahead by that much.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 27, 2016, 07:08:52 am
Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
If one is intrested in trend, it indeed gives some information. I don't believe, Trump is +7 now, but I don't believe either, Clinton was +12 as ABC/Washington and Ipsos/Reuters showed.

Or is ABC pollster a trash heap as well?

Clinton was never ahead by that much.
In polls?

ABC, June 26, Hillary +12 http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1178a12016Election.pdf (http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1178a12016Election.pdf)

Ipsos, July 14, Hillary +15 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160701-20160726/type/day (http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160701-20160726/type/day)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 27, 2016, 08:00:59 am
I mean, as in, in reality. She might have been up 7-9 in reality, but more than that I have a hard time buying.



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on July 27, 2016, 08:44:36 am
It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on July 27, 2016, 09:14:19 am
It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).

It really isn't. You just have to be open to cutting through the bullsh-t.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: nm825 on July 27, 2016, 09:32:37 am
And here come Atlas's resident Baghdad Bobs to come in and yell, "junk poll!" Shades of 2012 Romneyites and the "unskewing" of polls.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on July 27, 2016, 10:57:25 am
It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).

It really isn't. You just have to be open to cutting through the bullsh-t.

     In other words, you have to want to like her.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on July 27, 2016, 11:01:25 am
It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).

It really isn't. You just have to be open to cutting through the bullsh-t.

     In other words, you have to want to like her.

Well, you can frame anything that way. I frame it like this: If you decide to plug your ears, shut your eyes, and scream at the top of your lungs, of course you will not be able to see all the good she has done.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Pandaguineapig on July 27, 2016, 11:52:29 am
It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).

It really isn't. You just have to be open to cutting through the bullsh-t.

     In other words, you have to want to like her.

Well, you can frame anything that way. I frame it like this: If you decide to plug your ears, shut your eyes, and scream at the top of your lungs, of course you will not be able to see all the good she has done.
It must hurt knowing that she will never love you back


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: President Johnson on July 27, 2016, 01:35:35 pm
YUGE numbers! Hilldog, you've been trumped.

Just hope Big Don's number keep going up or least not down.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 27, 2016, 01:52:04 pm
(Image Link)

I liked Donald's proposal of him getting to choose the date of the election. Let's get on that!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: PaperKooper on July 27, 2016, 02:52:08 pm
I don't understand why people get so worked up about polls that aren't in their favor. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 27, 2016, 03:39:08 pm
I don't understand why people get so worked up about polls that aren't in their favor. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on July 27, 2016, 03:54:13 pm
I don't understand why people get so worked up about polls that aren't in their favor. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: OwlRhetoric on July 27, 2016, 04:13:23 pm
I don't understand why people get so worked up about polls that aren't in their favor. 

I don't totally get it either. Though politics is a team sport, and those who are heavily invested get very ruffled at any suggestion their team could lose.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Xing on July 27, 2016, 04:51:10 pm
If he's still up by this much next week, then I'll be worried. This was to be expected.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 27, 2016, 06:20:41 pm
It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).

Sorry Dukey it isn't but that's your loss, my friend :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on July 27, 2016, 06:42:17 pm
It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).

Sorry Dukey it isn't but that's your loss, my friend :)

I'm just destined to not vote in this election, so it seems. I haven't heard a compelling case yet that convinces me to vote for her.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on July 27, 2016, 07:24:23 pm
It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).

Sorry Dukey it isn't but that's your loss, my friend :)

I'm just destined to not vote in this election, so it seems. I haven't heard a compelling case yet that convinces me to vote for her.

     I suspect that a significant proportion of the huge undecideds in polls now will end up not voting. People aren't very happy with the choices that are presented.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Ljube on July 27, 2016, 11:45:16 pm
It's just impossible to like Hillary, and I say this as someone who probably lines up with her views fairly closely (before she bent over and adopted some of sanders positions).

Sorry Dukey it isn't but that's your loss, my friend :)

I'm just destined to not vote in this election, so it seems. I haven't heard a compelling case yet that convinces me to vote for her.

     I suspect that a significant proportion of the huge undecideds in polls now will end up not voting. People aren't very happy with the choices that are presented.

Indeed. With two unpopular candidates running and the campaign destined to be negative, we should expect many people to stay home. Turnout will be much lower than in the previous two elections.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 28, 2016, 02:14:50 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/27):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Seriously? on July 28, 2016, 02:38:28 am
Trump now up by 7. Still want to defend this trash heap?
If one is intrested in trend, it indeed gives some information. I don't believe, Trump is +7 now, but I don't believe either, Clinton was +12 as ABC/Washington and Ipsos/Reuters showed.

Or is ABC pollster a trash heap as well?

Clinton was never ahead by that much.
Clinton was +15 with LV in the Reuters pile of garbage and +12 in the ABC/WashPo trash heap of an outlier poll.

An honest assessment had it at about Hillary! +5 or +6 at one point, just like an honest assessment right now has it at about Trump +1 or Trump +2.

Not to say that this LA Times poll is rubbish. The track record for this methodology was pretty strong in 2012. However, until we have more LV data points, I look at this thing similarly to how I look at the Reuters poll -- for trendlines.

(Keep in mind most other national polls (aside from Rasmussen) are RV right now. Reuters just started quoting LV in their press articles. It's an apples and oranges kind of thing until the polling methodology switch completely changes over in the next few weeks to a month.)

Overall, it suggests roughly a 4-point bounce from the poll's inception and a 7-point bounce from 7/20, the only day Hillary! lead in the survey.

The overall bounce is pretty much in line with what we've been seeing from peak Hillary!

For those into decimals, it's 47.4% Trump, 40.1% Clinton in this latest dump, the trendline is still moving up slightly for the Donald.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Simfan34 on July 28, 2016, 08:16:22 am
And here come Atlas's resident Baghdad Bobs to come in and yell, "junk poll!" Shades of 2012 Romneyites and the "unskewing" of polls.

I agree. It's questionable.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 28, 2016, 08:25:10 am
And here come Atlas's resident Baghdad Bobs to come in and yell, "junk poll!" Shades of 2012 Romneyites and the "unskewing" of polls.

I agree. It's questionable.

Again... No. "Unskewing" was based on the GOP fever dream that a) the 2008 electorate was a fluke and b) not understanding anything about how party self-ID had changed. What most of us are doing is when the core datasets that make up the poll are wonky to an extreme, when compared to what we know about the state of the race, then I'm calling BS.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: afleitch on July 28, 2016, 08:29:45 am
The internals are legitimately bad (dive in and look) whereas Reuters aren't.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: amdcpus on July 28, 2016, 08:38:23 am
And here come Atlas's resident Baghdad Bobs to come in and yell, "junk poll!" Shades of 2012 Romneyites and the "unskewing" of polls.

I agree. It's questionable.

Again... No.

Can you even vote in this election?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 28, 2016, 08:42:28 am
And here come Atlas's resident Baghdad Bobs to come in and yell, "junk poll!" Shades of 2012 Romneyites and the "unskewing" of polls.

I agree. It's questionable.

That's the best you got?
Again... No.

Can you even vote in this election?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/25 - Trump +5
Post by: amdcpus on July 28, 2016, 09:03:00 am
And here come Atlas's resident Baghdad Bobs to come in and yell, "junk poll!" Shades of 2012 Romneyites and the "unskewing" of polls.

I agree. It's questionable.

That's the best you got?
Again... No.

Can you even vote in this election?

So no?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Simfan34 on July 28, 2016, 09:40:57 am
There's no logical reason for this election to be close, yes. But it is. As distressing as that may be we shouldn't nitpick about crosstabs, while sticking our heads in the sand and ignoring the broader trend. I mean, people are now trying to claim RCP are right wing hacks. RCP!

There's little we can do to impact the outcome of the election, but no good will come out of dismissing or ignoring the polls we don't like; God willing, this won't haplen, but if we continue in this manner, we on the Atlas may be in for a devastating shock on election day-- despite the polls having forcasted it.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Devout Centrist on July 28, 2016, 09:44:01 am
There's no logical reason for this election to be close, yes. But it is. As distressing as that may be we shouldn't nitpick about crosstabs, while sticking our heads in the sand and ignoring the broader trend. I mean, people are now trying to claim RCP are right wing hacks. RCP!

There's little we can do to impact the outcome of the election, but no good will come out of dismissing or ignoring the polls we don't like; God willing, this won't haplen, but if we continue in this manner, we on the Atlas may be in for a devastating shock on election day-- despite the polls having forcasted it.
This election may not be close in the end. Almost every election has a period where it's close. Historically, it was very common to see wild swings in polling before things settled down.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 28, 2016, 09:45:55 am
I mean, people are now trying to claim RCP are right wing hacks. RCP!

In fairness, RCP is a Republican propaganda machine.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Devout Centrist on July 28, 2016, 09:46:56 am
I mean, people are now trying to claim RCP are right wing hacks. RCP!

In fairness, RCP is a Republican propaganda machine.
RCP is conservative, by and large. Their aggregate, however, is not biased.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: JerryArkansas on July 28, 2016, 10:25:10 am
I mean, people are now trying to claim RCP are right wing hacks. RCP!

In fairness, RCP is a Republican propaganda machine.
RCP is conservative, by and large. Their aggregate, however, is not biased.
It picks and chooses polls, yeah it is just as biased.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: The Vorlon on July 28, 2016, 02:22:42 pm
I mean, people are now trying to claim RCP are right wing hacks. RCP!

In fairness, RCP is a Republican propaganda machine.
RCP is conservative, by and large. Their aggregate, however, is not biased.

It picks and chooses polls, yeah it is just as biased.

538's "Nowcast" says Hildebeast would win the popular vote by 0.2%
The RCP average has Trump up by 0.9%

1.1% is noise, not bias.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Landslide Andy on July 28, 2016, 02:25:41 pm
The internals are legitimately bad (dive in and look) whereas Reuters aren't.

I'm not sure about now, but before Reuters had ridiculous Democratic registration advantages. Like D+15 at one point I think. They're dreadful.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: Landslide Andy on July 28, 2016, 02:30:35 pm
There's no logical reason for this election to be close, yes. But it is. As distressing as that may be we shouldn't nitpick about crosstabs, while sticking our heads in the sand and ignoring the broader trend. I mean, people are now trying to claim RCP are right wing hacks. RCP!

There's little we can do to impact the outcome of the election, but no good will come out of dismissing or ignoring the polls we don't like; God willing, this won't haplen, but if we continue in this manner, we on the Atlas may be in for a devastating shock on election day-- despite the polls having forcasted it.

There is a logical reason for it to be close: 45% of the country will vote for any Republican under any circumstances, and convention bounces almost always happen. Seriously, how can people who have been around the block for many elections be SURPRISED by a convention bounce? I genuinely do not get it.

As for RCP, it is a good source that I use, but it is objectively a right wing site. Their editorials are like 90% conservative. They try not to screw with the data too much, which is nice, but there are definitely times every once in a while when they have their thumb on the scale.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: afleitch on July 28, 2016, 02:31:45 pm
The internals are legitimately bad (dive in and look) whereas Reuters aren't.

I'm not sure about now, but before Reuters had ridiculous Democratic registration advantages. Like D+15 at one point I think. They're dreadful.

That's why I said the internals are fine. Do the internals 'add up' to an accurate national Clinton v Trump share? No. That's in the weighting,


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/26 - Trump +7
Post by: The Vorlon on July 28, 2016, 02:38:21 pm
The internals are legitimately bad (dive in and look) whereas Reuters aren't.

I'm not sure about now, but before Reuters had ridiculous Democratic registration advantages. Like D+15 at one point I think. They're dreadful.

That's why I said the internals are fine. Do the internals 'add up' to an accurate national Clinton v Trump share? No. That's in the weighting,

Unless you have a %$%#&ing  HUGE sample, the internals simply cannot add up.

You balance your sample to the national data points (age, race, education, rural, urban, suburbs, etc) but the regional samples are simply too small to be balanced.

To make an extreme illustration if you did a "poll" of 8 people in the US there should be 1 african american (Blacks are about 12.2% of the population in the US) - So if you broke the US into 4 zones of 2 people each, one zone would have to be 50% black (wrong!) and the other 3 zones would be 0% black (wrong!) - but the overall sample would be ok.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 29, 2016, 02:18:02 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/28):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 41 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on July 29, 2016, 03:59:49 am
Clinton convention bump, HUUUGGEE!!!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on July 29, 2016, 06:23:09 am

Im so happy your back...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: Mallow on July 29, 2016, 07:52:40 am

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: JerryArkansas on July 29, 2016, 09:02:58 am

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: Mallow on July 29, 2016, 09:17:40 am

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: JerryArkansas on July 29, 2016, 09:19:25 am

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: Mallow on July 29, 2016, 09:21:28 am

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: JerryArkansas on July 29, 2016, 09:40:07 am

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/28 - Trump +6
Post by: cinyc on July 29, 2016, 10:10:05 am
If you <3 decimals, it's Trump 46.7, Clinton 40.6,


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: PaperKooper on July 29, 2016, 12:51:22 pm

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.
The "detailed data" tab has sample sizes. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/27 - Trump +7
Post by: Mallow on July 29, 2016, 02:16:54 pm

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.
The "detailed data" tab has sample sizes. 

Yeah I pretty much tuned out of the conversation when he said that...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/28 - Trump +6
Post by: JerryArkansas on July 29, 2016, 02:18:58 pm

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.
The "detailed data" tab has sample sizes. 

Yeah I pretty much tuned out of the conversation when he said that...
At this point, you seem like an idiot who wants to believe this damn poll.  So, I'll leave you in your "poll".

Also, they didn't have that when I first looked at this poll and threw it in the garbage.  Havent looked since.  But think what you want to think.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/28 - Trump +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 29, 2016, 02:36:24 pm

You do realize that 1: this is a seven-day running average (as has been discussed in this thread already), and 2: because of that fact, Trump's convention bump in this poll didn't even BEGIN until AFTER the convention was over (http://www.latimes.com/politics/), and by analogy, Clinton's shouldn't begin until tomorrow's tracking numbers, right? No?
Also the poll itself is just sh**t. 

I'm not convinced of that. Perhaps it has a bias, but that doesn't mean it is useless. It seems to capture trends pretty well (if late).
Not really.  It is a sham compared to what they had four years ago.  Shouldn't have launched it until after the conventions at the least.

"It's a sham because I don't believe assumptions X, Y, and Z" reeks of "unskewing". I'm not prepared to make such a bold statement about any poll just yet.
No, because they won't release the cross tables of the poll.  Why should I trust something just based on the numbers without seeing who they are polling.
The "detailed data" tab has sample sizes. 

Yeah I pretty much tuned out of the conversation when he said that...
At this point, you seem like an idiot who wants to believe this damn poll.  So, I'll leave you in your "poll".

Also, they didn't have that when I first looked at this poll and threw it in the garbage.  Havent looked since.  But think what you want to think.
So you threw it in the garbage, because they did't have it [at the very start], but now, when they do have it, you don't care.

Ok!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/28 - Trump +6
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 30, 2016, 02:14:55 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/29):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/28 - Trump +6
Post by: Gass3268 on July 30, 2016, 02:16:56 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/29):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Movin' On Up! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L09qnRfZY-k)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/28 - Trump +6
Post by: dfwlibertylover on July 30, 2016, 04:14:24 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/29):
Trump - 47 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Movin' On Up! (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L09qnRfZY-k)
I believe this will put Clinton in the lead on the RCP national head to head average unless another poll comes out today that shows good results for trump.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: cinyc on July 30, 2016, 11:05:02 am
Trump 46.6, Clinton 41.7, for those who <3 decimals.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: President Johnson on July 30, 2016, 12:01:51 pm
They're doing a poll every day now?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Arch on July 30, 2016, 12:02:20 pm

This poll is trash


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: President Johnson on July 30, 2016, 12:02:51 pm

LA Times? Why? Because TRUMP is leading?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 30, 2016, 12:07:33 pm
No


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Flake on July 30, 2016, 12:54:40 pm

Well the poll is contradicting nearly every other poll taken since it became a Clinton/Trump election and the demographics of the United States just wouldn't allow for a Trump margin to be this large.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Mallow on July 30, 2016, 01:18:57 pm

Well the poll is contradicting nearly every other poll taken since it became a Clinton/Trump election and the demographics of the United States just wouldn't allow for a Trump margin to be this large.

There seems to be a pretty substantial R bias in their sample, but the trends seem reasonable if you account for the lag (it's a 7-day running average, so the "7/29" number is an average of 7/23-7/29).


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Mehmentum on July 30, 2016, 01:23:17 pm
So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Mallow on July 30, 2016, 01:26:35 pm
So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.

Yep. Trump's full bounce wasn't registered until 6 days after the end of the RNC. That suggests Clinton's will have to wait 'til the 7/28-8/3 number released on August 4th.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 30, 2016, 02:38:25 pm

Well the poll is contradicting nearly every other poll taken since it became a Clinton/Trump election and the demographics of the United States just wouldn't allow for a Trump margin to be this large.

There seems to be a pretty substantial R bias in their sample, but the trends seem reasonable if you account for the lag (it's a 7-day running average, so the "7/29" number is an average of 7/23-7/29).
Yes. Trends!
So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.

Yep. Trump's full bounce wasn't registered until 6 days after the end of the RNC. That suggests Clinton's will have to wait 'til the 7/28-8/3 number released on August 4th.
Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Mehmentum on July 30, 2016, 02:46:24 pm

Well the poll is contradicting nearly every other poll taken since it became a Clinton/Trump election and the demographics of the United States just wouldn't allow for a Trump margin to be this large.

There seems to be a pretty substantial R bias in their sample, but the trends seem reasonable if you account for the lag (it's a 7-day running average, so the "7/29" number is an average of 7/23-7/29).
Yes. Trends!
So basically Clinton's bounce is 2 points so far, and we've got another 6 days before they completely capture the bounce.

Yep. Trump's full bounce wasn't registered until 6 days after the end of the RNC. That suggests Clinton's will have to wait 'til the 7/28-8/3 number released on August 4th.
Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!
Interesting, that would be a 9 point bounce, right in line with RABA.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: michelle on July 30, 2016, 03:27:04 pm
Using the LittleBigPlanet's equation above, I bring you yesterday's demographics.

Age
18-34: 51.2 Clinton, 42.3 Trump
35-64: 48.7 Trump, 45.5 Clinton
65+: 52.2 Clinton, 45.1 Trump

Education
HS or less: 54.6 Trump, 40.4 Clinton
some college: 53.2 Trump, 43.7 Clinton
BA+: 61.3 Clinton, 29.8 Trump

Household Income
$0-35k: 48.6 Clinton, 42.9 Trump
$35-75k: 50.5 Trump, 41.8 Clinton
$75k+: 52.3 Clinton, 43.5 Trump

Race
White: 55.2 Trump, 39 Clinton
African American: 89.1 Clinton, 2.3 Trump
Other ethnicity: 48.3 Trump, 45.9 Clinton
Hispanic: 64.6 Clinton, 35.4 Trump

Gender
Female: 50 Clinton, 46.9 Trump
Male: 46.9 Clinton, 45.4 Trump

But with a 300ish sample size, the margins of error are monstrous. That's what any abnormalities can be contributed to, FTR.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Interlocutor on July 31, 2016, 02:12:24 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/30):
Trump - 46.1 (-.5)
Clinton - 41.9 (+.2)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Soonerdem on July 31, 2016, 08:22:17 pm
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/30):
Trump - 46.1 (-.5)
Clinton - 41.9 (+.2)
(#) denotes change from previous day

Smaller change then you would expect


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: StatesPoll on July 31, 2016, 09:11:34 pm
 
[/quote]

Pre DNC(7/24) TRUMP 46.3%
Post DNC(7/30) TRUMP 46.1%

Pre RNC(7/17) Hillary 42.2%
Post DNC(7/30) Hillary 41.9%

;)



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Mehmentum on July 31, 2016, 09:16:53 pm

Pre DNC(7/24) TRUMP 46.3%
Post DNC(7/30) TRUMP 46.1%

Pre RNC(7/17) Hillary 42.2%
Post DNC(7/30) Hillary 41.9%

;)


[/quote]
Um, there's still like 4 more days until we capture the entire DNC bump.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 31, 2016, 09:17:43 pm

Pre DNC(7/24) TRUMP 46.3%
Post DNC(7/30) TRUMP 46.1%

Pre RNC(7/17) Hillary 42.2%
Post DNC(7/30) Hillary 41.9%

;)


Um, there's still like 4 more days until we capture the entire DNC bump.
[/quote]

Well, we also know that this poll is garbage, so there's that.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/29 - Trump +5
Post by: StatesPoll on July 31, 2016, 09:34:55 pm

Pre DNC(7/24) TRUMP 46.3%
Post DNC(7/30) TRUMP 46.1%

Pre RNC(7/17) Hillary 42.2%
Post DNC(7/30) Hillary 41.9%

;)


Um, there's still like 4 more days until we capture the entire DNC bump.
[/quote]

It Already reflects DNC convention(7/25-7/28) more than half.
7/24-7/30  (24,25,26,27,28,29,30)

especially Michael Obama's fantastic(?) speech, it was in 7/26 (Which was praised by every MSM).



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/30 - Trump +4
Post by: dfwlibertylover on August 01, 2016, 02:11:14 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (7/31):
Trump - 46 (+/-)
Clinton - 42 (+/-)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/30 - Trump +4
Post by: Seriously? on August 01, 2016, 02:16:23 am
For those that like decimals:

Trump 46.2 (+.1%)
Clinton 42.1 (+.2%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/31 - Trump +4
Post by: HillOfANight on August 01, 2016, 06:54:26 pm
https://twitter.com/JeffersonObama/status/760240794942988289

■ TRUMP WINS 30% Blacks
■ Hillary wins just 51% Latinos

trash


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/31 - Trump +4
Post by: michelle on August 01, 2016, 07:00:54 pm
https://twitter.com/JeffersonObama/status/760240794942988289

■ TRUMP WINS 30% Blacks
■ Hillary wins just 51% Latinos

trash

If you actually checked the crosstabs then you would know that what you just posted is obviously not true. The poll probably isn't that accurate (considering how it goes against every other poll out right now), but don't post lies to back it up, okay? Trump is only winning 5% of blacks in this poll, and Clinton is at 54% with Hispanics.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/31 - Trump +4
Post by: dspNY on August 01, 2016, 07:02:16 pm
https://twitter.com/JeffersonObama/status/760240794942988289

■ TRUMP WINS 30% Blacks
■ Hillary wins just 51% Latinos

trash

Put Clinton at 90% with African-Americans and 75% with Hispanics like most polls and she goes into the lead by 2 or 3


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/31 - Trump +4
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on August 01, 2016, 07:04:43 pm
https://twitter.com/JeffersonObama/status/760240794942988289

■ TRUMP WINS 30% Blacks
■ Hillary wins just 51% Latinos

trash
Even if those numbers were true, and he matched Romney's numbers with white voters he would only win 52-46, and 306-252 EV, at least according to 538.  

()


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/31 - Trump +4
Post by: HillOfANight on August 01, 2016, 07:18:45 pm
https://twitter.com/JeffersonObama/status/760240794942988289

■ TRUMP WINS 30% Blacks
■ Hillary wins just 51% Latinos

trash

If you actually checked the crosstabs then you would know that what you just posted is obviously not true. The poll probably isn't that accurate (considering how it goes against every other poll out right now), but don't post lies to back it up, okay? Trump is only winning 5% of blacks in this poll, and Clinton is at 54% with Hispanics.

Sorry, must have been a typo by the tweeter.

http://96.127.53.23/election/
Still, Trump +4 with millenials, while other posters have him down over 20.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/31 - Trump +4
Post by: Interlocutor on August 02, 2016, 02:52:22 am
Latest results from the only national poll currently showing a Trump lead, as cited by Donald Trump

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (8/1):
Trump - 45.3 (-.9)
Clinton - 43.1 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/31 - Trump +4
Post by: Seriously? on August 02, 2016, 04:10:57 am
Latest results from the only national poll currently showing a Trump lead, as cited by Donald Trump

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (8/1):
Trump - 45.3 (-.9)
Clinton - 43.1 (+1)
(#) denotes change from previous day
The two biggest Trump/two worst Hillary! days are about to roll off this survey in the next few days, so it will be interesting to see where this poll is come Thursday morning.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/31 - Trump +4
Post by: The Other Castro on August 02, 2016, 10:30:49 am
It really is interesting how this poll has consistently come up with numbers always about 6 or 7 points more Trump leaning than the average.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 7/31 - Trump +4
Post by: Seriously? on August 02, 2016, 10:34:24 am
It really is interesting how this poll has consistently come up with numbers always about 6 or 7 points more Trump leaning than the average.
It's probably the turnout assumptions, which I don't think they've publicly released.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/1 - Trump +2
Post by: Seriously? on August 03, 2016, 03:46:38 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (8/2):
Trump - 45.3 (-/-)
Clinton - 43.7 (+.6)
(#) denotes change from previous day

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-daybreak-poll-methodology-20160714-snap-story.html
(not on the polling-specific page yet from USC, just the LA Times for now).

Trump has one more +7 day left on this poll to roll off, which is tomorrow, before the Hillary! bounce from the DNC began in earnest.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/1 - Trump +2
Post by: pbrower2a on August 03, 2016, 10:36:11 am
The fault in a moving average lies in its inability to reflect a major change in the underlying reality.  Consider what happened on May 2. 2011 and what that did for approval polls of President Obama. Polls from before then  suddenly became suspect.

Basically, Special Forces whacked Osama bin Laden. As I recall an approval poll for Virginia went from the high 40s to the mid 50s overnight.

Or try something apolitical. Texas is prone to a phenomenon known as a Blue Norther.  Before the dry and much colder air mass moves in, temperatures could be as high as the mid 80s under a clear sky even in January.  So let's look at the daytime highs in the five days before the Blue Norther comes by in Dallas.

Daytime highs are 72, 68, 77, 84, 81, and 85F. A rolling average of the daytime highs isn't that silly; that's how things are typically in Phoenix at the same latitude and often similarly low in humidity. The next day the temperatures reaches 82 at 1:30. Then, all of a sudden, the wind shifts from south to north, the sky goes overcast, and the temperature plummets. At 2PM one has overcast conditions, a strong north wind, and a temperature or 55F. By 3PM the temperature is down to 39F. On the next day people awaken in Dallas to find that if they go out to get the paper they find a sub-freezing 24F.

Weather forecasters do not use rolling averages of temperature to predict the daily weather.  The temperature of even two days earlier has practically no value in predicting the daily high temperature that day.   


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/1 - Trump +2
Post by: Seriously? on August 03, 2016, 10:38:17 am
The fault in a moving average lies in its inability to reflect a major change in the underlying reality.  Consider what happened on May 2. 2011 and what that did for approval polls of President Obama. Polls from before then  suddenly became suspect.

Basically, Special Forces whacked Osama bin Laden. As I recall an approval poll for Virginia went from the high 40s to the mid 50s overnight.

Or try something apolitical. Texas is prone to a phenomenon known as a Blue Norther.  Before the dry and much colder air mass moves in, temperatures could be as high as the mid 80s under a clear sky even in January.  So let's look at the daytime highs in the five days before the Blue Norther comes by in Dallas.

Daytime highs are 72, 68, 77, 84, 81, and 85F. A rolling average of the daytime highs isn't that silly; that's how things are typically in Phoenix at the same latitude and often similarly low in humidity. The next day the temperatures reaches 82 at 1:30. Then, all of a sudden, the wind shifts from south to north, the sky goes overcast, and the temperature plummets. At 2PM one has overcast conditions, a strong north wind, and a temperature or 55F. By 3PM the temperature is down to 39F. On the next day people awaken in Dallas to find that if they go out to get the paper they find a sub-freezing 24F.

Weather forecasters do not use rolling averages of temperature to predict the daily weather.  The temperature of even two days earlier has practically no value in predicting the daily high temperature that day.   
Meh. Rolling averages are generally fine for tracking polls of this sort. This is likely the first of many that will be employing this kind of methodology over the cycle. You just have to understand the trendlines, which is what these kind of polls are mainly about anyway.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/1 - Trump +2
Post by: pbrower2a on August 03, 2016, 02:33:37 pm
The fault in a moving average lies in its inability to reflect a major change in the underlying reality.  Consider what happened on May 2. 2011 and what that did for approval polls of President Obama. Polls from before then  suddenly became suspect.

Basically, Special Forces whacked Osama bin Laden. As I recall an approval poll for Virginia went from the high 40s to the mid 50s overnight.

Or try something apolitical. Texas is prone to a phenomenon known as a Blue Norther.  Before the dry and much colder air mass moves in, temperatures could be as high as the mid 80s under a clear sky even in January.  So let's look at the daytime highs in the five days before the Blue Norther comes by in Dallas.

Daytime highs are 72, 68, 77, 84, 81, and 85F. A rolling average of the daytime highs isn't that silly; that's how things are typically in Phoenix at the same latitude and often similarly low in humidity. The next day the temperatures reaches 82 at 1:30. Then, all of a sudden, the wind shifts from south to north, the sky goes overcast, and the temperature plummets. At 2PM one has overcast conditions, a strong north wind, and a temperature or 55F. By 3PM the temperature is down to 39F. On the next day people awaken in Dallas to find that if they go out to get the paper they find a sub-freezing 24F.

Weather forecasters do not use rolling averages of temperature to predict the daily weather.  The temperature of even two days earlier has practically no value in predicting the daily high temperature that day.  

Meh. Rolling averages are generally fine for tracking polls of this sort. This is likely the first of many that will be employing this kind of methodology over the cycle. You just have to understand the trendlines, which is what these kind of polls are mainly about anyway.

The comparison I use is of the same pollster from one week to another, with recognition that events can happen that make old polls completely irrelevant. Rasmussen to PPP is probably apples to oranges unless there is some huge gap in time.

I changed my polling thread to recognize that polls, however valid, from before the Conventions have all become suspect. Assumptions that I could make beforehand (that someone up 45-38 has a significant lead) may have made sense beforehand, but as the elections get closer the 45-38 lead is not as strong as a 49-44 lead even if the 49-44 lead is somewhat narrower. Winners in a binary race should be approaching the magic 50% barrier in a binary election. (I made little change on determining how a three-way race would go).  

I do not treat this Presidential race like that of 2012. In 2012 we all found Barack Obama extremely predictable. His opponent was simply predictable, offering much the same policies as John McCain. Mitt Romney ran as reality compelled him to run, seeking to cultivate mass disdain for the incumbent President in some parts of the country to spread it elsewhere. The personality of Mitt Romney was not going to matter much. A President with a scandal- free  Administration, one who had an improving economy, and one whose foreign policy was effective ordinarily wins re-election. Were he running against a catastrophically-failed President, Mitt Romney would have won.
 
This year things are very different. The incumbent President isn't running. Both Presidential nominees faced genuine competition in the primaries. Most of our assessments of Trump vs. Clinton are qualitative.

Do Conventions matter? They certainly do! They establish themes for the upcoming election. Donald Trump has left much material for Democrats to use against him. Hillary Clinton has adopted Reagan-like themes  that worked well in 1980, 1983, and 1988, maybe giving some slightly liberal twists to them so that they seem genuine enough for people to believe them. Donald Trump has offended huge chunks of America without excuse. Even more significantly, Hillary Clinton has gotten a unified Party in contrast to Donald Trump.

My gut feeling is that I see a slightly-liberal version of a Reagan-like campaign against a right-wing version of McGovern-like campaign, but I have yet to have my intuition confirmed.  Polls will confirm or deny my intuition, and they will show in the form of a map.

I can't imagine a strong Trump win. Such would require him to win states that Republican nominees have not won beginning in 1992, and often by huge margins. A bare Trump win looks something like 2000 or 2004, with Trump ahead in practically all of the legitimate swing states and making some states behind the Blue (Atlas Red) Firewall look shaky. A bare Clinton win has a map looking like 2000 or 2004 with her winning everything that Democrats have lost no more than once since 1992 while picking up Colorado and Nevada together or one or two  swing states (from among Florida, Missouri, Ohio, or Virginia). That would probably be like Obama 2012 less Florida. Get three of those swing states (including Florida) and start picking off states like Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and North Carolina and a Hillary Clinton wins  an election like Obama in 2008, if not a little stronger.

It's practically certain that Hillary Clinton will not win an election in the style of her husband. Should she pick up states that her husband won twice but Obama lost twice by 10% or more, then she may be winning a 45-state landslide. I doubt that she can reconstruct the Southern electorate that Carter got.  I can more easily imagine her winning Texas than winning Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Tennessee, and West Virginia. It is more likely that she wins an election with a map similar to those of Eisenhower in the 1950s.

But I am ahead of myself. Some things have not changed: the Democrats have lost, perhaps permanently, the Mountain and Deep South.        


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: Ebsy on August 04, 2016, 12:43:17 am
Now it is Trump +1. Might the final poll showing Trump ahead finally topple on the rcp average?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: Seriously? on August 04, 2016, 01:01:43 am
Now it is Trump +1. Might the final poll showing Trump ahead finally topple on the rcp average?
Tonight will be the night if it does. The last truly pro-Trump sample will come off of the average tonight.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: Interlocutor on August 04, 2016, 02:14:32 am
The streak is over.


USC/LA Times national tracking poll (8/2)
Clinton: 44.8 (+1.1)
Trump: 44.2 (-1.1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: pbrower2a on August 04, 2016, 05:59:33 am
It looks as if my analogy in weather is becoming relevant. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: The Other Castro on August 04, 2016, 09:51:51 am
Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: Seriously? on August 04, 2016, 10:36:04 am
Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
This pollster is using the same modeling that RAND used in 2012 when they nailed the election with pretty good accuracy. This is a test to see if it they were just lucky or good. One would assume the same "voted for the winner" in 2008 bias for the 2012 cycle.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this type of polling, generally.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: psychprofessor on August 04, 2016, 10:51:25 am
Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
This pollster is using the same modeling that RAND used in 2012 when they nailed the election with pretty good accuracy. This is a test to see if it they were just lucky or good. One would assume the same "voted for the winner" in 2008 bias for the 2012 cycle.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this type of polling, generally.

Once again, this is not a poll. It is a pre-selected panel, which as Nate Cohn pointed out, is weighted to conform to 51-47 2012 results. This thread and panel poll is meaningless.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: Mallow on August 04, 2016, 11:19:30 am
Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
This pollster is using the same modeling that RAND used in 2012 when they nailed the election with pretty good accuracy. This is a test to see if it they were just lucky or good. One would assume the same "voted for the winner" in 2008 bias for the 2012 cycle.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this type of polling, generally.

Once again, this is not a poll. It is a pre-selected panel, which as Nate Cohn pointed out, is weighted to conform to 51-47 2012 results. This thread and panel poll is meaningless.

I don't think it's meaningless at all. Indeed, this method is probably a stronger indicator of trends than standard polling, since the sample does not change. One just needs to be aware of the potential built-in bias inherent in the sample.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: psychprofessor on August 04, 2016, 11:26:56 am
Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
This pollster is using the same modeling that RAND used in 2012 when they nailed the election with pretty good accuracy. This is a test to see if it they were just lucky or good. One would assume the same "voted for the winner" in 2008 bias for the 2012 cycle.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this type of polling, generally.

Once again, this is not a poll. It is a pre-selected panel, which as Nate Cohn pointed out, is weighted to conform to 51-47 2012 results. This thread and panel poll is meaningless.

I don't think it's meaningless at all. Indeed, this method is probably a stronger indicator of trends than standard polling, since the sample does not change. One just needs to be aware of the potential built-in bias inherent in the sample.

It is indeed meaningless when used as a poll. That's what this thread is all about. We don't have a "trends" thread. And when looked at from the guise of a "poll" it shows a head heat. So, yes, this is meaningless when looked at as a poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: Mallow on August 04, 2016, 02:01:27 pm
Nate Cohn pointed out that it looks like this pollster is weighting it's results to conform to 2012's 51-47 Presidential outcome, which partly explains the big Republican slant since some people in most polls tend to say they voted for the winner when they did not.
This pollster is using the same modeling that RAND used in 2012 when they nailed the election with pretty good accuracy. This is a test to see if it they were just lucky or good. One would assume the same "voted for the winner" in 2008 bias for the 2012 cycle.

Obviously, the jury is still out on this type of polling, generally.

Once again, this is not a poll. It is a pre-selected panel, which as Nate Cohn pointed out, is weighted to conform to 51-47 2012 results. This thread and panel poll is meaningless.

I don't think it's meaningless at all. Indeed, this method is probably a stronger indicator of trends than standard polling, since the sample does not change. One just needs to be aware of the potential built-in bias inherent in the sample.

It is indeed meaningless when used as a poll. That's what this thread is all about. We don't have a "trends" thread. And when looked at from the guise of a "poll" it shows a head heat. So, yes, this is meaningless when looked at as a poll.

That's also not true. A poll that is consistently biased in favor of one candidate, but is otherwise very precise (that is, less noisy than others), is actually significantly more useful than a poll that has no bias but very low precision (swings wildly due to noise). If that's the case with this particular poll, then it is very meaningful as long as you sufficiently account for the bias.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/3 - Clinton +1
Post by: Suburban Cincinnati Soccer Moms for Beshear on August 04, 2016, 04:10:50 pm
Wow, even this whacky pro Trump outlier now has Hillary ahead, sad!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/3 - Clinton +1
Post by: dspNY on August 05, 2016, 05:42:35 am
Clinton 45.2, Trump 44.6 in today's iteration


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/2 - Trump +2
Post by: BlueSwan on August 05, 2016, 07:43:35 am
That's also not true. A poll that is consistently biased in favor of one candidate, but is otherwise very precise (that is, less noisy than others), is actually significantly more useful than a poll that has no bias but very low precision (swings wildly due to noise). If that's the case with this particular poll, then it is very meaningful as long as you sufficiently account for the bias.
I agree, this is very useful for seeing trends due to them pollling the same people over and over. So the question is how big the Trump bias is. Trump was ahead by 7 in this poll, but he was arguably never ahead by more than a point or so based on polls in general. Would it be excessive to give this poll a Trump +6 house effect? If we did that then Clinton would be at +7 right now, which seems fairly close to the overall polls right now.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/3 - Clinton +1
Post by: Seriously? on August 05, 2016, 09:51:08 am
With the trendline changes. Pretty much a wash.

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/4)
Clinton: 45.2 (+0.4)
Trump: 44.6 (-0.4)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/4 - Clinton +1
Post by: Seriously? on August 06, 2016, 02:13:58 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/5)
Clinton: 44.6 (-0.6%)
Trump: 44.2 (-0.4%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/5 - Tie
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on August 06, 2016, 05:42:34 am
This poll needs a daybreak!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/5 - Tie
Post by: Seriously? on August 07, 2016, 02:13:41 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/6)
Clinton: 44.7 (+0.1%)
Trump: 44.0 (-0.2%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/5 - Tie
Post by: Devout Centrist on August 07, 2016, 02:15:22 am
What's wrong with their methodology? Their base consists of people who think their candidate's going to win at that moment?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/5 - Tie
Post by: Crumpets on August 07, 2016, 02:34:57 am
I can understand the methodology, but I don't get why poll aggregates are using these when they're not really "polls" per se in the classic sense.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/6 - Clinton +1
Post by: Seriously? on August 08, 2016, 12:55:16 pm
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/7)
Clinton: 45.0 (+0.3%)
Trump: 43.8 (-0.2%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/7 - Clinton +1
Post by: Seriously? on August 09, 2016, 02:20:37 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/8)
Clinton: 45.1 (+0.1%)
Trump: 43.4 (-0.4%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/7 - Clinton +1
Post by: Interlocutor on August 09, 2016, 02:42:44 am
So Trump is back to where he was before the RNC while Hillary sustained her decent DNC bounce. Sounds about right.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/7 - Clinton +2
Post by: Seriously? on August 10, 2016, 02:13:24 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/9)
Clinton: 44.9 (-0.2%)
Trump: 43.5 (+0.1%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/9 - Clinton +1
Post by: Seriously? on August 11, 2016, 02:16:11 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/10)
Clinton: 44.8 (-0.1%)
Trump: 43.3 (-0.2%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/10 - Clinton +2
Post by: Seriously? on August 12, 2016, 02:16:58 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/11) Clinton +1.1%
Clinton: 44.2 (-0.6%)
Trump: 43.1 (-0.2%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/10 - Clinton +2
Post by: The Other Castro on August 12, 2016, 08:25:50 am
In 538's polls-only forecast, they adjust this poll to usually 5 points more for Clinton.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/10 - Clinton +2
Post by: Gass3268 on August 12, 2016, 08:29:50 am
In 538's polls-only forecast, they adjust this poll to usually 5 points more for Clinton.

Yup, when she was up by about 4 hear they did reduce that down to a 4 point addition. Today it's only a 3 point addition. I wonder what their methodology is here.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/11 - Clinton +1
Post by: Seriously? on August 13, 2016, 02:18:21 am
Either Clinton had a good day or this thing is finally realigning to where the other polls are.

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/12) Clinton +3.5%
Clinton: 45.7% (+1.5%)
Trump: 42.2% (-0.9%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/11 - Clinton +1
Post by: Devout Centrist on August 13, 2016, 02:19:17 am
Either Clinton had a good day or this thing is finally realigning to where the other polls are.

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/12) Clinton +3.5%
Clinton: 45.7% (+1.5%)
Trump: 42.2% (-0.9%)
Or daily tracking is a poor way to monitor the election.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/11 - Clinton +1
Post by: Interlocutor on August 13, 2016, 03:06:52 am
Biggest gain for Hillary since July 15. Its getting harder and harder for Trump surrogates to continue citing this poll


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/11 - Clinton +1
Post by: King on August 13, 2016, 07:20:12 am
why are millenials so conservative in this sample? they made a huge mistake there and their concept doesn't allow for it to be corrected.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/11 - Clinton +1
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on August 13, 2016, 07:31:09 am
why are millenials so conservative in this sample? they made a huge mistake there and their concept doesn't allow for it to be corrected.

Yeah - it's been f***ed from day one.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/12 - Clinton +4
Post by: Seriously? on August 14, 2016, 02:14:37 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/13) Clinton +4.7%
Clinton: 46.3% (+0.6%)
Trump: 41.6% (-0.6%)

Seems like they are adding voters to the sample. Sample size was ~2,200. It's now ~2,300.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/12 - Clinton +4
Post by: Interlocutor on August 14, 2016, 02:19:33 am
7th day in a row that Trump drops in voter intention (-4.5 since August 7). He sure is doing a great job motivating his base


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/13 - Clinton +5
Post by: Seriously? on August 15, 2016, 02:15:26 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/14) Clinton +3.6%
Clinton: 45.6% (-0.7%)
Trump: 42.0% (+0.4%)

Sample size went up from 2,325 to 2,510 from Saturday to Sunday's sample.

Sample was in the 2,100 range earlier in the week. I think eventually, they want this poll to be ~400 to 500 voters a day. (7-day average)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/14 - Clinton +4
Post by: Seriously? on August 16, 2016, 02:16:25 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/15) Clinton +3.4%
Clinton: 45.5% (-0.1%)
Trump: 42.1% (+0.1%)

Sample size increase seemed to slow on Monday. Up marginally from 2,510 to 2,539.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/15 - Clinton +3.4
Post by: Seriously? on August 17, 2016, 02:13:45 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/16) Clinton +1.0%
Clinton: 44.2% (-1.3%)
Trump: 43.2% (+1.1%)

A good day for Trump.

Sample size increase up marginally from 2,539 to 2,551.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/16 - Clinton +1
Post by: OwlRhetoric on August 17, 2016, 02:42:26 pm
Nice to see Trump gaining again.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/16 - Clinton +1
Post by: President Johnson on August 17, 2016, 02:43:18 pm
Clinton +1 is laughable. I thought the LA Times is a liberal newspaper.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/16 - Clinton +1
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 17, 2016, 03:26:36 pm
Clinton +1 is laughable. I thought the LA Times is a liberal newspaper.
You mean that liberal newspapers use a liberal methodologies in their liberal polls?

It is not really a poll. They use the same members all over again. It means that such polls will have an inbuilt bias (it seems like it favors 5-6 pps towards Trump), but it will probably better on "catching trends" (but with 7 day lagging).


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/16 - Clinton +1
Post by: Seriously? on August 18, 2016, 02:16:01 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/17) Clinton +0.6%
Clinton: 44.0% (-0.2%)
Trump: 43.4% (+0.2%)

Sample size fell from 2,551 to 2,500.

Voter intensity has closed to 82.3 Clinton vs. 82.1 Trump.  Trump's numbers have rebounded from 78.8 earlier in the week.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/17 - Clinton +0.6
Post by: Seriously? on August 19, 2016, 02:12:49 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/18) Clinton +1.2%
Clinton: 44.6% (+0.6%)
Trump: 43.4% (--%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/17 - Clinton +0.6
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 19, 2016, 10:24:26 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/18) Clinton +1.2%
Clinton: 44.6% (+0.6%)
Trump: 43.4% (--%)

HILLARY DOUBLES HER MARGIN OVERNIGHT! - If Hillary tweeted.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/17 - Clinton +0.6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 19, 2016, 10:25:21 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/18) Clinton +1.2%
Clinton: 44.6% (+0.6%)
Trump: 43.4% (--%)

HILLARY DOUBLES HER MARGIN OVERNIGHT! - If Hillary tweeted.
:D


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Seriously? on August 20, 2016, 02:15:14 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/19) Trump +0.6%
Trump: 44.2% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.6% (-1.0%)

The Donald's first lead since August 2nd.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Buzz on August 20, 2016, 09:13:29 am
Fantastic!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on August 20, 2016, 09:43:02 am
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Maxwell on August 20, 2016, 09:48:09 am
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

It's pretty clear based on the garbage L.A. Times poll!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 20, 2016, 10:06:51 am
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

It's pretty clear based on the garbage L.A. Times poll!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Fusionmunster on August 20, 2016, 10:19:58 am
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

It's pretty clear based on the garbage L.A. Times poll!

This poll has issues. The sub-sample does not change, meaning that they randomly poll from the same group of people everyday. The poll has a heavy R-bias due to the non changing sample, even LA times admits thats.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Maxwell on August 20, 2016, 10:43:19 am
uh i could go to just about any other poll and see more reliable data in my favor.

you clowns literally only have this and a bunch of InfoWars-level kooks to give you stuff in your favor.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: JerryArkansas on August 20, 2016, 10:53:15 am
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

It's pretty clear based on the garbage L.A. Times poll!
Were're not the ones believing a poll that the makers have even said has a Republican bias.  But go on with your "dank memes".


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Seriously? on August 20, 2016, 11:31:13 am
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!
That's my take on this. The convention bounce seems to have faded and we are at pre-convention levels with most polls. That's not just from this poll, but reading the basket of polls that have been released over the past week or so.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 20, 2016, 11:35:48 am
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

It's pretty clear based on the garbage L.A. Times poll!

This poll has issues. The sub-sample does not change, meaning that they randomly poll from the same group of people everyday. The poll has a heavy R-bias due to the non changing sample, even LA times admits thats.
Yes. Everybody's agree that it have some constant bias (probably 5-7 pps). So the statement that margins are down to those in 2012 is pretty reasonable. And is consistent with pew.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 20, 2016, 11:37:59 am
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

It's pretty clear based on the garbage L.A. Times poll!
Were're not the ones believing a poll that the makers have even said has a Republican bias.  But go on with your "dank memes".

538 believes (with some adjustments). I rather believe Nate than anonymous red hacks :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: JerryArkansas on August 20, 2016, 11:49:21 am
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

It's pretty clear based on the garbage L.A. Times poll!
Were're not the ones believing a poll that the makers have even said has a Republican bias.  But go on with your "dank memes".

538 believes (with some adjustments). I rather believe Nate than anonymous red hacks :)
Nate Silver also believed that Trump would just fade away.  He's not the most trustworthy. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 20, 2016, 11:55:27 am
You distinguish between his opinion and his model, don't you?
It's pretty clear that Hillary's bounce has come back down to 2012 margins at least.  There's still a long way to go!

It's pretty clear based on the garbage L.A. Times poll!
Were're not the ones believing a poll that the makers have even said has a Republican bias.  But go on with your "dank memes".

538 believes (with some adjustments). I rather believe Nate than anonymous red hacks :)
Nate Silver also believed that Trump would just fade away.  He's not the most trustworthy. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Landslide Andy on August 20, 2016, 11:58:35 am
Guys, just let them cling to their junk tracking "poll" that doesn't even have a random sample and flies in the face of all other available evidence. For the Trumpets, it's like finally getting a piece of moldy bread after starving for a month. :P


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: john cage bubblegum on August 20, 2016, 12:01:20 pm
If you look carefully, Clinton had a huge jump exactly one week ago, which likely means she got an outlier (for this poll) day in her favor.  For a little while it looked this poll was coming in line with other national polls, but that favorable Clinton day has fallen off, and this poll is fully back to having its usual significant Trump bias.  

It looks like Trump got an outlier day on the 16th, so in four days expect to see a Clinton jump in the 7-day rolling average.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: x on August 20, 2016, 12:14:13 pm
If Trump supporters are staking all their hopes on both rampant poll unskewing and one or two polls with well-known issues & bias, then it's going to be rough on November 9th when reality sets in.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 20, 2016, 12:29:08 pm
If Trump supporters are staking all their hopes on both rampant poll unskewing and one or two polls with well-known issues & bias, then it's going to be rough on November 9th when reality sets in.
Sigh. Stop tilting at windmills :)
There are some indications that the race is tightening, for instance pew. But of course we need more evedence. I guess next week we'll get a bunch of polls from A pollsters.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: x on August 20, 2016, 01:01:03 pm
If Trump supporters are staking all their hopes on both rampant poll unskewing and one or two polls with well-known issues & bias, then it's going to be rough on November 9th when reality sets in.
Sigh. Stop tilting at windmills :)
There are some indications that the race is tightening, for instance pew. But of course we need more evedence. I guess next week we'll get a bunch of polls from A pollsters.

You can think what you want, but the vast majority of data paints a very rosy picture for Clinton and Democrats downballot. We are not the ones desperately trying to rejigger polls to fit our narrative, and we have the vast majority of them showing us up by comfortable margins.

Further, if Democrats over-perform like we did in 2012, then a polling average of 2012 margins might be more troublesome for Republicans than you might think. I have every reason to feel confident in this, considering Trump has no ground game really to speak of and the RNC is already posting fundraising figures that are lower than 2012 - And this is when Trump is relying on them to basically do everything. With this sort of "arrangement", the RNC should be pulling in significantly more money, not less.

There is really no way to spin this. By almost every measure, Republicans are in awful shape right now and at least for the time being, there is little reason to think things will change. Can things change? Of course! Will they? Doubtful, given Trump's consistent record of ruining his own chances on a weekly basis with gaffes and offensive comments/arguments. Especially now given his commitment to being himself and hiring yes-men to encourage such.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: afleitch on August 20, 2016, 01:04:42 pm
Any move back to 'pre convention' polling would still give Clinton an Obama 2012 style victory.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 20, 2016, 01:44:45 pm
Any move back to 'pre convention' polling would still give Clinton an Obama 2012 style victory.
Exactly. And "pre convention" polling looks like best case scenario for Trump right now. What this poll indicates is that race got down from +8-10 (Khan) to +5-7 right now. But it might just be fluctuations due to adding of new panel members.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: King on August 20, 2016, 01:59:15 pm
Clinton is only beating Trump 43-41 among 18-34 year olds in this sample. It's very clear that's where this consistent 6 point house effect toward Trump is coming from. There's no way he's going to come within 20 points of 18-34 year olds; hell, there's a chance he finishes third Johnson in this demo. 30-40 point loss is more likely.

Trash poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: OwlRhetoric on August 20, 2016, 02:02:09 pm
I want to believe it's a weak trend indicator. Guess we'll see if other polls next week show anything different.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Gass3268 on August 20, 2016, 02:15:59 pm
Any move back to 'pre convention' polling would still give Clinton an Obama 2012 style victory.

Really if you look at the current polling averages, Clinton is back to her post-primary/pre-Commey numbers of around a 6-5% lead. Pre-convention numbers were not that great for Clinton, she was around 3-4%.

As long as we keep hearing stories of GOP officials in NC and PA freaking out about their own internal polls showing double digit deficits and RNC rumblings of having congressional running ads that say they will be a check on a President Clinton, I'm not worried.  


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Seriously? on August 20, 2016, 09:31:31 pm
Guys, just let them cling to their junk tracking "poll" that doesn't even have a random sample and flies in the face of all other available evidence. For the Trumpets, it's like finally getting a piece of moldy bread after starving for a month. :P
I don't think the blue avatars on here are "clinging to their junk tracking 'poll'" as you claim we are. We know what it means in context of the basket of polls. A Trump lead brings the aggregate back to roughly pre-convention levels for both sides.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Hammy on August 21, 2016, 12:34:30 am
I honestly don't see what's wrong with following the daily tracking polls, especially with the same pool--even if there's an R-bias, the -trend- is what's good to watch with these. If it's Clinton with a small lead followed by Trump with a small lead, then while Clinton is still very likely ahead, it could be an indicator that the lead has shrunken, and I do have to agree that the convention bounce is over--the polling has probably stabilized at this point unless there's a huge controversy from either side.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Seriously? on August 21, 2016, 02:15:54 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/20) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.0% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6%)

Not exactly shocking because the biggest Hillary bump day (8/13) rolled off of the survey.

Survey size down to 2,385 from peak of 2,551 on 8/16.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Special K on August 21, 2016, 05:07:29 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/20) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.0% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6%)

Not exactly shocking because the biggest Hillary bump day (8/13) rolled off of the survey.

Survey size down to 2,385 from peak of 2,551 on 8/16.

Says who?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/20 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Phony Moderate on August 21, 2016, 05:23:33 am
The most pro-Brexit polls ended up being the most accurate polls...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/20 - Trump +2.0
Post by: JerryArkansas on August 21, 2016, 09:04:09 am
The most pro-Brexit polls ended up being the most accurate polls...
Ok, who cares.  This isn't Britan. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Seriously? on August 21, 2016, 09:54:16 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/20) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.0% (+0.8%)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6%)

Not exactly shocking because the biggest Hillary bump day (8/13) rolled off of the survey.

Survey size down to 2,385 from peak of 2,551 on 8/16.

Says who?
Ummm. The poll if you look at it? It's a 7-day rolling average. 8/13 was the biggest bump/lead Hillary day on the poll. It's 8/20. Mathematically 8/13 was wiped off the poll today, since it's 8/14-8/20 now. The number of respondents, same thing.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 21, 2016, 09:56:35 am

Seriously made a clone to pat himself on the back. Sad!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/18 - Clinton +1.2
Post by: Seriously? on August 21, 2016, 10:01:23 am
Yeah, because I've commented on the merits of this poll as opposed to actually just reporting the numbers in this thread.

How dare there be a few more Republicans on this forum! It must break your heart that there's an actual opposition in this land of the red, faux green and faux blue avatars. Your insults will do nothing but entrench my resolve.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/20 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Lean Branson on August 21, 2016, 10:04:27 am
This poll is just the worst thing, and the fact that RCP is shameless enough to include it in their average is irritating.

Yeah, because I've commented on the merits of this poll as opposed to actually just reporting the numbers in this thread.

How dare there be a few more Republicans on this forum! It must break your heart that there's an actual opposition in this land of the red, faux green and faux blue avatars. Your insults will do nothing but entrench my resolve.

lol


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/20 - Trump +2.0
Post by: JerryArkansas on August 21, 2016, 10:08:19 am
Yeah, because I've commented on the merits of this poll as opposed to actually just reporting the numbers in this thread.

How dare there be a few more Republicans on this forum! It must break your heart that there's an actual opposition in this land of the red, faux green and faux blue avatars. Your insults will do nothing but entrench my resolve.
I and many others would like to have opposition.  Not posters who just throw sh**t when presented with an argument.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/20 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Seriously? on August 22, 2016, 02:15:28 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/21) Trump +1.1%
Trump: 44.6% (-0.4%)
Clinton: 43.5% (+0.5%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Seriously? on August 23, 2016, 02:12:51 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/22) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton: 44.2% (+0.7%)
Trump: 44.0% (-0.6%)

The lead goes back to Clinton.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:15:30 pm
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: The Other Castro on August 23, 2016, 02:18:30 pm
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/

I'd be fine with it except for the fact that it's throwing off the RCP average.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:23:57 pm
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/

I'd be fine with it except for the fact that it's throwing off the RCP average.

The RCP average has always been prone to bias in its polling averages, because of the way they choose which polls to include and which polls not to include. As nice as it would be to have a simple polling average that was not prone to bias (though I think that's what 538's "polls-only" forecast attempts to represent), it's simply not what RCP does (nor do they claim to). We should always keep that caveat in mind when analyzing their polling average.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 23, 2016, 02:31:26 pm
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
Ahaha. Nate is saying EXACTLY what I've been saying for WEEKS.


Me ↓↓↓
Clinton +1 is laughable. I thought the LA Times is a liberal newspaper.
You mean that liberal newspapers use a liberal methodologies in their liberal polls?

It is not really a poll. They use the same members all over again. It means that such polls will have an inbuilt bias (it seems like it favors 5-6 pps towards Trump), but it will probably better on "catching trends" (but with 7 day lagging).



Nate ↓↓↓
Quote from: Nate Silver
All of this follows the trend from other polls almost perfectly, as long as you remember that you have to shift things to Clinton by about 6 points.

Red hacks on this forum make me believe that Trump is not doing well enough with uneducated :( :( :(


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Panda Express on August 23, 2016, 02:32:57 pm
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/22) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton: 44.2% (+0.7%)
Trump: 44.0% (-0.6%)

The lead goes back to Clinton.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:36:56 pm
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
Ahaha. Nate is saying EXACTLY what I've been saying for WEEKS.


Me ↓↓↓
Clinton +1 is laughable. I thought the LA Times is a liberal newspaper.
You mean that liberal newspapers use a liberal methodologies in their liberal polls?

It is not really a poll. They use the same members all over again. It means that such polls will have an inbuilt bias (it seems like it favors 5-6 pps towards Trump), but it will probably better on "catching trends" (but with 7 day lagging).



Nate ↓↓↓
Quote from: Nate Silver
All of this follows the trend from other polls almost perfectly, as long as you remember that you have to shift things to Clinton by about 6 points.

Red hacks on this forum make me believe that Trump is not doing well enough with uneducated :( :( :(

Not to get into a pissing contest, but since we're handing out kudos to ourselves, I'll point out that this has been my position for (actual) weeks (your quote is from six days ago). See the conversation that begins here, on July 29th.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=240856.msg5187774#msg5187774

And I'm a proud "red hack"


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: michelle on August 23, 2016, 02:38:08 pm
I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: The Other Castro on August 23, 2016, 02:40:31 pm
I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 23, 2016, 02:46:01 pm
A good piece by Nate Silver:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/
Ahaha. Nate is saying EXACTLY what I've been saying for WEEKS.


Me ↓↓↓
Clinton +1 is laughable. I thought the LA Times is a liberal newspaper.
You mean that liberal newspapers use a liberal methodologies in their liberal polls?

It is not really a poll. They use the same members all over again. It means that such polls will have an inbuilt bias (it seems like it favors 5-6 pps towards Trump), but it will probably better on "catching trends" (but with 7 day lagging).



Nate ↓↓↓
Quote from: Nate Silver
All of this follows the trend from other polls almost perfectly, as long as you remember that you have to shift things to Clinton by about 6 points.

Red hacks on this forum make me believe that Trump is not doing well enough with uneducated :( :( :(

Not to get into a pissing contest, but since we're handing out kudos to ourselves, I'll point out that this has been my position for (actual) weeks (your quote is from six days ago). See the conversation that begins here, on July 29th.
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=240856.msg5187774#msg5187774

And I'm a proud "red hack"
I'm sexy and I know it! :D

Meaning, you're Shy Trump supporter! :D ;)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:49:53 pm
I'm sexy and I know it! :D

Meaning, you're Shy Trump supporter! :D ;)

As a reasonable human being, if forced with the choice of being shot dead or voting for Trump, I would choose to be shot dead.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 23, 2016, 02:56:17 pm
I'm sexy and I know it! :D

Meaning, you're Shy Trump supporter! :D ;)

As a reasonable human being, if forced with the choice of being shot dead or voting for Trump, I would choose to be shot dead.
Words hurt, you know!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Mallow on August 23, 2016, 02:57:03 pm
I'm sexy and I know it! :D

Meaning, you're Shy Trump supporter! :D ;)

As a reasonable human being, if forced with the choice of being shot dead or voting for Trump, I would choose to be shot dead.
Words hurt, you know!

I do! Which is precisely why I could never support Trump.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: The Other Castro on August 24, 2016, 02:21:48 am
YUGE swing coming.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Arch on August 24, 2016, 02:27:09 am

?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Seriously? on August 24, 2016, 03:30:40 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/23) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton: 45.3% (+1.1%)
Trump: 43.2% (-0.8%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 24, 2016, 07:13:22 am
Trump is collapsing. Sad!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 24, 2016, 07:13:27 am
The trend is consistent with Ipsos :(


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: michelle on August 24, 2016, 10:21:00 am
8/23 Approximate Numbers

Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.

Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!

It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Devout Centrist on August 24, 2016, 11:07:06 am
:)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: The Other Castro on August 24, 2016, 11:08:29 am
Oh I had misread that as you trying to adjust the rolling numbers for accuracy, not for individual dates.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/23 - Clinton +2.1
Post by: Landslide Andy on August 24, 2016, 04:00:44 pm
Poor Seriously. lol


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: The Other Castro on August 24, 2016, 04:03:04 pm
8/23 Approximate Numbers

Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.

Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!

It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.

I might be missing something, but doesn't this fail to account for the oldest poll dropping off the average in exchange for the newest one? That would change the average of the previous polls.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/21 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 24, 2016, 04:40:30 pm
8/23 Approximate Numbers

Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.

Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!

It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.

I might be missing something, but doesn't this fail to account for the oldest poll dropping off the average in exchange for the newest one? That would change the average of the previous polls.
Yes, the assumption is that dropped day is "average" one, which of course is not true. So we're actually kind of calculating difference between dropped day and new one. So Clinton's numbers today are +5 compared to the day exactly one week before. If I'm  not completely wrong :-[


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/23 - Clinton +2.1
Post by: nirvanayoda on August 24, 2016, 05:34:51 pm
The problem with trying to figure out each day is that you have to make an assumption about what the day that rolled off contained.  I tried to do this for Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls in 2008 and realized that it was sort of pointless because the poll started with multiple days, so it was impossible to tell exactly what day rolled off.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/23 - Clinton +2.1
Post by: Seriously? on August 25, 2016, 02:12:28 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/24) Clinton +0.3%
Clinton: 44.3% (-1.0%)
Trump: 44.0% (+0.8%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/24 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: michelle on August 25, 2016, 06:02:17 am
Trump 49% (+11)
Clinton 38% (-14)

I'll try and come up with a new formula that takes into account the days dropping off.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/25 - Trump +0.7
Post by: cinyc on August 26, 2016, 03:03:07 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/25 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 26, 2016, 03:25:39 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)


Wow! Crooked Hillary's speech backfired spectacularly.

MAGA!!!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/25 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Arch on August 26, 2016, 03:27:04 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)


Wow! Crooked Hillary's speech backfired spectacularly.

MAGA!!!

That's not how this poll panel works...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/25 - Trump +0.7
Post by: michelle on August 26, 2016, 07:07:06 am
Trying to account for the days dropping off with a new formula.

8/25 Numbers.

Trump 45%
Clinton 41%

I don't feel as confident about the accuracy, so I'll also use the old formula.

Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 39% (+1)

The new formula takes these numbers and the numbers from seven days ago and tries to weigh how that day rolling off the charts would affect the numbers.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/25 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 26, 2016, 08:16:01 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)


Wow! Crooked Hillary's speech backfired spectacularly.

MAGA!!!

That's not how this poll panel works...
That's how sarcasm works, dude... ;D


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/25 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Arch on August 26, 2016, 10:36:30 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/25) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.7)


Wow! Crooked Hillary's speech backfired spectacularly.

MAGA!!!

That's not how this poll panel works...
That's how sarcasm works, dude... ;D

Oops :P


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/25 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Seriously? on August 27, 2016, 02:15:33 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/26) Clinton +1.3%
Clinton: 44.6% (+1.0)
Trump: 43.3% (-1.0)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/26 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: michelle on August 27, 2016, 11:59:19 am
8/26 Old Formula:

Clinton 51% (+12)
Trump 37% (-9)

New Formula

Clinton 48% (+7)
Trump 40% (-5)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/26 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Buh her emails! on August 27, 2016, 06:37:48 pm
8/26 Old Formula:

Clinton 51% (+12)
Trump 37% (-9)

New Formula

Clinton 48% (+7)
Trump 40% (-5)

Jesus the old formula numbers for Trump lol.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/26 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 28, 2016, 07:00:42 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (Aug. 21-27) Clinton +0.6%
Clinton: 44.2% (-0.4)
Trump: 43.6% (+0.3)

It seems like daily polls have stabilized around C +5-7 (after adjustments for house effect).

I look forward to A pollsters coming next 1-2 week.

JUL. 29-31         CNN, (A-, RV)                          C+8
JUL. 29-31         CBS News/New York Times, (A-, RV)      C+5
JUL. 31-AUG. 2   Fox News, (A, RV)                        C+9
JUL. 31-AUG. 3   NBC News/Wall Street Journal (A-, RV)    C+9
JUL. 29-AUG. 4   IBD/TIPP   (A-, RV)                      C+4   
AUG. 1-3      Marist College   (A, RV)                    C+14   
AUG. 1-4      ABC News/Washington Post    (A+, LV)        C+8
AUG. 4-7      Monmouth University   (A+, LV)              C+13
AUG. 5-8      Selzer & Company    (A+, LV)                C+4
AUG. 9-16    Pew Research Center   (B+, RV)               C+4
AUG. 18-24   Quinnipiac University   (A-, LV)             C+7



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/26 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Seriously? on August 28, 2016, 10:02:42 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/27) Clinton +0.6%
Clinton: 44.2% (-0.4)
Trump: 43.6% (+0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/27 - Clinton +0.6
Post by: michelle on August 28, 2016, 09:14:32 pm
Old Formula

Trump 45% (+8)
Clinton 42% (-9)

New Formula

Trump 45% (+5)
Clinton 42% (-6)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/27 - Clinton +0.6
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 02:13:48 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/28) Trump +0.4%
Trump: 44.0% (+0.4)
Clinton: 43.6% (-0.6)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/27 - Clinton +0.6
Post by: michelle on August 29, 2016, 08:26:35 am
Old Formula

Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-2)

New Formula

Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 41% (-1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: cMac36 on August 29, 2016, 10:16:18 am
Am I the only one that read this constantly as "USC's Dorm's Life"?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: Seriously? on August 30, 2016, 02:13:14 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/29) Trump +2.8%
Trump: 45.1% (+1.1)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.4)

Clinton's lowest number and Trump's largest lead since 7/31.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 30, 2016, 02:39:24 am
Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right :)
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 ;D


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: Fusionmunster on August 30, 2016, 05:54:34 am
Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right :)
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 ;D

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 30, 2016, 07:04:05 am
Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right :)
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 ;D

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: The Other Castro on August 30, 2016, 07:11:28 am
Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right :)
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 ;D

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out


You're an unusual poster you know that?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: michelle on August 30, 2016, 07:19:50 am
Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right :)
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111

LA Times've been underestimating Clinton's loss. Not anylonger. Now it is consistent with Monmouth !!!111 ;D

Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out


You're an unusual poster you know that?

Well, he's from Sweden. But why is his username Little Big Planet? Isn't that a video game?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 30, 2016, 07:33:32 am
Is it any wonder most of us have you on ignore.
I was told when I get older all my fears would shrink
But now I'm insecure and I care what people think
My name's Blurryface and I care what you think
My name's LittleBig and I care what you think
Wish we could turn back time, to the good old days
When our momma sang us to sleep but now we're stressed out

You're an unusual poster you know that?
It sounds like a trap!

I'm an average Trump supporter, I think.
Well, he's from Sweden. But why is his username Little Big Planet? Isn't that a video game?
Yes, it is! And a good one!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: michelle on August 30, 2016, 11:02:06 am
Old Formula

Donald Trump 52% (+6)
Hillary Clinton 35% (-5)

New Formula

Donald Trump 49% (+3)
Hillary Clinton 38% (-3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/28 - Trump +0.4
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on August 30, 2016, 11:26:18 am
For what it's worth, 538 now only adjusts this by 4, not 6.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/29 - Trump +2.8
Post by: Seriously? on August 31, 2016, 02:15:45 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/30) Trump +3.4%
Trump: 45.3% (+0.2)
Clinton: 41.9% (-0.4)

The sample has been replenished a bit the past few days from 2,469 to 2,576.

Clinton voter intensity is down to 81.1 from a peak of 84.7 on 8/26, nearly matching Trump's number of 80.5.

It's safe to assume that Clinton's speech about Trump being a racist last week has yet to register in this tracking poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/29 - Trump +2.8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 31, 2016, 04:14:03 am
BEAUTIFUL!

Clinton in low 40s is my perception of the race. And we don't even add 5-10% of Shy Trump voters. Laaaaaandslide ;D


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/29 - Trump +2.8
Post by: michelle on August 31, 2016, 09:36:24 am
Old Formula
Trump 47% (-5)
Clinton 40% (+5)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-4)
Clinton 41% (+3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Seriously? on September 01, 2016, 02:13:36 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/31) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.5)

Sample size increases to 2,646.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 01, 2016, 03:31:54 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/31) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.5)

Sample size increases to 2,646.

THE TRUMP COLLAPSE HAS BEGUN!!!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Phony Moderate on September 01, 2016, 05:21:23 am
I assume this poll is online? Presumably people are more likely to tell a pollster that they are voting for Trump if it's via the internet rather than via the phone.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Lok on September 01, 2016, 05:47:10 am
Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 01, 2016, 06:11:33 am
Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?
We already figured out. It have underestimated Clinton's lead declining. It showed -4%, while

Pew -5 (from Clinton +9 to Clinton +5)
Monmouth -6 (from +13 to +7)
Fox -7 (from +9 to +2)

Low energy LA Times !!!!1111
But the have 7-day lag. Shell we excuse them? :)



Today/tomorrow we'll get ABC. They showed Clinton +8 back i Aug. What will it show now, you think? :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Seriously? on September 01, 2016, 08:35:03 am
Can we, like, stop paying any attention to this poll until we can figure out what's going on?
We already figured out. It have underestimated Clinton's lead declining. It showed -4%, while

Pew -5 (from Clinton +9 to Clinton +5)
Monmouth -6 (from +13 to +7)
Fox -7 (from +9 to +2)

Low energy LA Times !!!!1111
But the have 7-day lag. Shell we excuse them? :)



Today/tomorrow we'll get ABC. They showed Clinton +8 back i Aug. What will it show now, you think? :)
If you go by the favorable gap, ABC/WaPo shouldn't be too favorable to Clinton. But there's always special sauce.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 01, 2016, 08:53:34 am
If you go by the favorable gap, ABC/WaPo shouldn't be too favorable to Clinton. But there's always special sauce.
Yes, favs look delicious. It will probably show a really close race.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 01, 2016, 09:06:56 am
Nate Silver pratically "admits" that their model should have believed more to this pollster :)

He is also talking about red hacks = some readers ;D
Quote from: Nate Silver
We know that some readers don’t like the trend line adjustment. But if anything, the model hadn’t been aggressive enough. Two highly rated, traditional telephone polls of Wisconsin came out Wednesday, and they showed Clinton up by just 3 points and 5 points. The 3-point lead was in a poll from Marquette University, which had Clinton up by 13 points just after the Democratic National Convention. (As of Thursday morning, Clinton is projected to win by 5 points in Wisconsin, according to the polls-only model.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-as-the-race-tightens-dont-assume-the-electoral-college-will-save-clinton/ (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-as-the-race-tightens-dont-assume-the-electoral-college-will-save-clinton/)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/31 - Trump +2.6
Post by: Seriously? on September 02, 2016, 02:12:59 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/1) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.0% (-1.0)
Clinton: 43.3% (+0.9)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/31 - Trump +2.6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 02, 2016, 02:18:54 am
:(


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 8/31 - Trump +2.6
Post by: TrumpCard on September 02, 2016, 02:40:52 am
I wouldn't look too much into close polls.  Trump needs to pick up OH and PA which the latter is brutally difficult with the Philadelphia vote. Having said that he needs to hang onto all of the center/right states.  His shortest path consists of PA, OH, and FL while holding onto NC.  Without PA he can still pick up CO, IA, and NH but that's uphill as well.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/1 - Trump +0.7
Post by: michelle on September 02, 2016, 05:18:06 pm
Old Formula
Clinton 49%
Trump 38%

New Formula
Clinton 47%
Trump 40%


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/1 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Seriously? on September 03, 2016, 02:12:05 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/2) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.3% (+1.3)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0)

Up to 2,711 respondents.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/2 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 03, 2016, 07:34:53 am
:)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/2 - Trump +3.0
Post by: michelle on September 03, 2016, 07:38:34 am
Old Formula
Trump 53% (+15)
Clinton 36% (-13)

New Formula
Trump 50% (+10)
Clinton 39% (-8)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/1 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Luminary Lee on September 03, 2016, 09:45:37 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/2) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.3% (+1.3)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0)

Up to 2,711 respondents.

Wow


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/3 - Trump +2.6
Post by: Seriously? on September 04, 2016, 02:11:48 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/3) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 45.0% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/3 - Trump +2.6
Post by: Maxwell on September 04, 2016, 01:54:10 pm
I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/3 - Trump +2.6
Post by: ProudModerate2 on September 04, 2016, 02:07:35 pm
I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.

Yes this poll is basically junk.
Good only for trump supporters who need a "lift" to start each day with some morning-wood.
Think of it as being similar to "the little blue pill" ..... temporary mental (and physical) refreshment that quickly wears-off.
It seems that one person on Atlas, in particular, might be addicted to this drug.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/3 - Trump +2.6
Post by: michelle on September 04, 2016, 08:10:53 pm
Old Formula
Trump 43% (-10)
Clinton 43% (+7)

New Formula
Clinton 43% (+4)
Trump 43% (-7)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/3 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Seriously? on September 05, 2016, 02:17:06 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/4) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 44.7% (-0.3)
Clinton: 42.7% (+0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/3 - Trump +2.6
Post by: Seriously? on September 05, 2016, 02:18:04 am
I just looked at the crosstabs for these and realized why these polls are as wacky as they are (beyond the obvious these aren't actually random samples complaint) -

Trump gets 31% of Latinos to Clinton's 53%, a really unprecedented 22% margin compared to what we've seen elsewhere, while Trump gets 56% of whites to Clintons 32%.

Yes this poll is basically junk.
Good only for trump supporters who need a "lift" to start each day with some morning-wood.
Think of it as being similar to "the little blue pill" ..... temporary mental (and physical) refreshment that quickly wears-off.
It seems that one person on Atlas, in particular, might be addicted to this drug.

No. It's a data point. Like all other data points that I post here, good or bad for Trump.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/4 - Trump +2.0
Post by: michelle on September 05, 2016, 03:42:55 pm
Old Formula
Clinton 45% (+2)
Trump 43% (+/-0)

New Formula
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 43% (+/-0)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/4 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Cory Booker on September 05, 2016, 05:04:07 pm
Trump is definitely over performing in Iowa and NV, but he's not close enough to take a Natl lead.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/4 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 02:11:41 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/5) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.3% (-0.4)
Clinton: 43.6% (+0.9)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/4 - Trump +2.0
Post by: michelle on September 06, 2016, 05:57:34 am
Old Formula
Clinton 49% (+4)
Trump 42% (-1)

New Formula
Clinton 47% (+3)
Trump 43% (+/-0)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/4 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on September 06, 2016, 09:05:50 am
Yeah. I definitely thought that Clinton calling him out would take the wind of his sails but it seemed to have the opposite effect. It now seems that Trump's attempt to stand up for what he believes in has also backfired. Two swings and a misses in a row. It seems like a very strange campaign. People are very concerned about Trump yet they feel sorry for him and feel like Clinton is trying to tell them how to feel every time she raises those concerns.  Trump needs to go on the offensive but Clinton cannot afford to stay on the Defensive.

It seems that even a very slim victory by Trump could be seen as a "realignment" or an "unalignment".


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/4 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 09:15:46 am
Maybe we are seeing the effects of his wild immigration speech after the boost from last week?
Might be. There are similar trends in Ipsos and CVoter. We have to wait.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/4 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on September 06, 2016, 03:55:45 pm
Yeah. I definitely thought that Clinton calling him out would take the wind of his sails but it seemed to have the opposite effect. It now seems that Trump's attempt to stand up for what he believes in has also backfired. Two swings and a misses in a row. It seems like a very strange campaign. People are very concerned about Trump yet they feel sorry for him and feel like Clinton is trying to tell them how to feel every time she raises those concerns.  Trump needs to go on the offensive but Clinton cannot afford to stay on the Defensive.

It seems that even a very slim victory by Trump could be seen as a "realignment" or an "unalignment".

In retrospect, I think the Trump = KKK speech/ad campaign was really dumb as it may have just pushed non-college whites more toward voting as a block.  Clinton's still up in the aggregate, but she can't afford a bad 1st debate like Obama.

So, basically we are heading towards a future where non-middle class whites (those whose educational achievement is in the bottom 70% or are in the top 1-5%) will  constitute an "ethnic" group? You could say the entire "religious right" thing was just a transitional phase towards this.  Is there a way this ends benignly?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/5 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: Seriously? on September 07, 2016, 02:14:48 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/6) Clinton +0.3%
Clinton: 44.1% (+0.5)
Trump: 43.8% (-0.5)

First Clinton lead since 8/27.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/5 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 07, 2016, 03:26:04 am
sh**t,  hope,  it's just a fluctuations :(


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/6 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: michelle on September 07, 2016, 06:18:53 pm
Old Formula
Clinton 47% (-2)
Trump 41% (-1)

New Formula
Clinton 45% (-2)
Trump 42% (-1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/5 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Maxwell on September 07, 2016, 06:19:48 pm
sh**t,  hope,  it's just a fluctuations :(

that's all these polls are, so you have nothing to worry about.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/5 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 07, 2016, 06:29:20 pm
sh**t,  hope,  it's just a fluctuations :(

that's all these polls are, so you have nothing to worry about.
Are you kidding me? This poll has been most trustfull among all the polls in this election. On trends ;)

But it'd be nice, if CNN poll was right about the race :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/6 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: Seriously? on September 08, 2016, 02:13:26 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/7) Clinton +1.1%
Clinton: 44.5% (+0.4)
Trump: 43.4% (-0.4)

It will show as Clinton +2 due to rounding.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/6 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 08, 2016, 05:42:39 am
Splendid news. Hillary's numbers are rising faster that a teenager's dick while he is reading SI's swimsuit edition.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/6 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 08, 2016, 06:00:18 am
Splendid news. Hillary's numbers are rising faster that a teenager's dick while he is reading SI's swimsuit edition.

I admit, I giggled.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/6 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 08, 2016, 07:58:25 am
Splendid news. Hillary's numbers are rising faster that a teenager's dick while he is reading SI's swimsuit edition.

I admit, I giggled.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/7 - Clinton +1.1
Post by: afleitch on September 08, 2016, 10:25:41 am
I still struggle to understand why they consistently find Bush '04 levels of support amongst Hispanics for Trump.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/7 - Clinton +1.1
Post by: JerryArkansas on September 08, 2016, 11:00:48 am
I still struggle to understand why they consistently find Bush '04 levels of support amongst Hispanics for Trump.
They adjusted it to show support based on 2012.  Doing that was always going to produce crap results.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/7 - Clinton +1.1
Post by: michelle on September 08, 2016, 03:18:28 pm
Old Formula
Clinton 47% (+/-0)
Trump 41% (+/-0)

New Formula
Clinton 45% (+/-0)
Trump 42% (+/-0)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/7 - Clinton +1.1
Post by: Seriously? on September 09, 2016, 02:11:58 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/8) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton: 44.5% (--)
Trump: 44.3% (+0.9)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/8 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: skoods on September 09, 2016, 07:42:58 am
These tracking polls seem about as useful as a poopy flavored lollipop.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/8 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on September 09, 2016, 07:53:25 am
These tracking polls seem about as useful as a poopy flavored lollipop.
Ehhh.. NS is right. Add/Take about four to it.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/8 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: michelle on September 09, 2016, 02:22:55 pm
Actually, the most pro-Clinton day before she took the lead rolled off the average, and it responded accordingly. This was to be expected. And the old formula will look a little weird.

Old Formula
Trump 50% (+9)
Clinton 45% (-2)

New Formula
Trump 48% (+6)
Clinton 44% (-1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/8 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Seriously? on September 10, 2016, 02:13:23 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/9) Clinton +1.0%
Clinton: 44.8% (+0.3)
Trump: 43.8% (-0.5)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/8 - Clinton +0.2
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 10, 2016, 07:42:35 am
Magnificent poll! Trump is crumbling like Steph Curry during an NBA final.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
Post by: michelle on September 10, 2016, 12:56:53 pm
Old Formula
Clinton 47% (+2)
Trump 41% (-9)

New Formula
Clinton 45% (+1)
Trump 42% (-6)

Yesterday was just statistical noise.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
Post by: Buh her emails! on September 10, 2016, 01:13:00 pm
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
Post by: michelle on September 10, 2016, 01:14:09 pm
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
Post by: Seriously? on September 11, 2016, 02:12:26 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/10) Clinton +1.4%
Clinton: 45.0% (+0.2)
Trump: 43.6% (-0.2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on September 11, 2016, 02:18:40 am
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
Post by: Xing on September 11, 2016, 02:42:09 am
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
Post by: Lok on September 11, 2016, 03:30:16 am
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

I'll probably bump her a little bit, but not by much, probably by around 1-2 percent


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/9 - Clinton +1.0
Post by: Seriously? on September 11, 2016, 05:16:37 am
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 11, 2016, 05:36:04 am
Lol, guys. You're acting like you live in Sweden with sky-high turnout (85%, >90% among Whites) and generally more "elastic" voters.

The elections in Sweden are about persuading voters, in USA — about energizing one's base. Right now both Trump and Clinton (especially Clinton works hard, LOL) energise Trump's base :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 11, 2016, 08:31:47 am
Lol, guys. You're acting like you live in Sweden with sky-high turnout (85%, >90% among Whites) and generally more "elastic" voters.

The elections in Sweden are about persuading voters, in USA — about energizing one's base. Right now both Trump and Clinton (especially Clinton works hard, LOL) energise Trump's base :)
By that logic, "basket full of deplorables" was the best thing she possibly could've done.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
Post by: Joe Republic on September 11, 2016, 11:22:21 am
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
Post by: Seriously? on September 12, 2016, 02:11:53 am
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/10 - Clinton +1.4
Post by: Seriously? on September 12, 2016, 02:13:10 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/11) Clinton +0.3%
Clinton: 44.4% (-0.6)
Trump: 44.1% (+0.5)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/11 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: Joe Republic on September 12, 2016, 10:09:38 am
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.

Um, okay.  That was eighteen years ago.  Not sure how that's relevant here and now.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/11 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: michelle on September 12, 2016, 05:36:27 pm
Old Formula
Trump 47% (+5)
Clinton 41% (-5)

New Formula
Trump 46% (+3)
Clinton 41% (-4)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Seriously? on September 13, 2016, 02:13:24 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/12) Trump +3.0%
Trump: 45.8% (+1.7)
Clinton: 42.8% (-1.4)

Huge jump for Trump. It bodes watching the other two tracking polls to see if this is a direct impact of Clinton's "medical incident"/the "basket of deplorables" comment or just some statistical noise.

Given the nature of how this particular poll is conducted, it could very well be the Clinton health scare that pushed such a radical change in one day. It's a panel of the same voters for the most part. About 70 people were added to the sample since Sunday.

Digging deeper into the poll, Trump's intensity was up by almost a point. As to the question of who would win, Trump jumped almost a point, while Hillary fell almost a point. Hillary still is the heavy favorite 52.2-43.3.



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 13, 2016, 04:46:28 am
Deplorables!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 13, 2016, 06:22:19 am
It is a largest bump in LA Times polling history. We'll probably get other polls, confirming or not this, but at least it follows my gut feeling :D


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 13, 2016, 06:27:00 am
I wish there was a way I could put entire threads on ignore so I didnt have to look at this junk.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Fusionmunster on September 13, 2016, 09:08:33 am
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: afleitch on September 13, 2016, 09:14:14 am
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?

Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.

He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.

The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on September 13, 2016, 09:18:34 am
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?

Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.

He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.

The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.

So this poll shows that there is a lot of crossover voting that probably won't happen or that there is a realignment?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: afleitch on September 13, 2016, 09:24:09 am
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?

Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.

He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.

The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.

So this poll shows that there is a lot of crossover voting that probably won't happen or that there is a realignment?

It is tracking a sample of voters that isn't necessary an appropriate sample. No other tracker, even reuters is showing a Bush '04 level of support amongst Hispanics.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 13, 2016, 11:25:04 am
Someone said Trumps bump today is mostly from a huge swing in black support, any truth to that?

Racially yes, alongside the polls heavily Trump Hispanic sample. The black support may just be a 'burp' as the same thing happened earlier in the track.

He also leads amongst 18-34 year olds by 4 points, which is also a fair jump.

The fundamentals of the tracking poll have always had these factors built into them.
Yeah, looking at the cross tabs, black voters are basically the only ones who've changed, and in an eerily similar way to a couple of weeks ago. This is just an odd consequence of methodology


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +4.7
Post by: Seriously? on September 14, 2016, 02:15:23 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe. :P


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Arch on September 14, 2016, 02:16:22 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +4.7
Post by: Seriously? on September 14, 2016, 02:22:59 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
That was a joke. Just like how big of a joke it is that the Hillary campaign is attacking a fu#$ng cartoon. But then again... Democrats seem to have a penchant for blaming filmmakers...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Pandaguineapig on September 14, 2016, 02:26:22 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
Pepe will become a national symbol if trump becomes president


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 14, 2016, 02:36:46 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.

As if that isn't enough of a red flag as to this poll's status.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/12 - Trump +3.0
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 14, 2016, 04:06:31 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.
Pepe will become a national symbol if trump becomes president


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/13 - Trump +4.7
Post by: michelle on September 14, 2016, 05:28:05 am
This new result will likely be a new equilibrium for the poll. We'll see probably another week of Trump prosperity unless something else changes (the one thing I can think of right now is the Newsweek cover). Anyway, the numbers:

Old Formula
Trump 52% (-4)
Clinton 37% (+4)

New Formula
Trump 49% (-3)
Clinton 40% (+3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/13 - Trump +4.7
Post by: Lok on September 14, 2016, 06:05:01 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/13) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.9%)
Clinton: 42.0% (-0.8%)

Another Donald kind of day. Intensity only favors Hillary 82.9-82.2. Millennials also swarming to Trump. Perhaps they shouldn't have attacked Pepe.

If you really think Pepe is having any effect, you are deluding yourself.

As if that isn't enough of a red flag as to this poll's status.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/11 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 14, 2016, 04:36:18 pm
Looks like Hillary's basket comments may be helping her.

The full effect won't appear in this poll for a few days. It hasn't even started, actually.

Most people that would vote for already know that about Trump and his hard core supporters. So I expect it will help.



I don't think it'll make much of a difference. People who are offended by it wouldn't have voted for Hillary in the first place, and people who agree with it are either already voting for her, or have made it  clear that this sort of thing isn't an issue for them.
Most reasonable Republicans will never vote for Hillary Clinton. The only thing her comments may do is rally those #nevertrump folks that are still on the fence to actually come out and vote against her and for Trump.

It brought many of us on the right back to the days when she and her husband were branding us "the vast right wing conspiracy."

As I mentioned in another thread, most #nevertrump Republicans who have decided to make the leap to vote for Hillary no doubt agree with her comment that Trump and his followers are deplorable.  That's the whole reason they're #nevertrump in the first place.
Yeah, but most of them are not a fan of being branded members of the "Vast Right Wing Conspiracy." It hearkens back to the bad old days of the Clinton administration when Clinton spews this BS.

Um, okay.  That was eighteen years ago.  Not sure how that's relevant here and now.
Just as relevant as Trump's racist apartment policies...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/13 - Trump +5.9
Post by: Seriously? on September 15, 2016, 02:16:54 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/14) Trump +5.9%
Trump: 47.2% (+0.5)
Clinton: 41.3% (-0.7)

The free fall continues.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/13 - Trump +4.7
Post by: Pandaguineapig on September 15, 2016, 02:19:05 am
The uncuckening of America has begun.......

But in all seriousness this trend is probably meaningless since the debates will probably reset whatever momentum either candidate has in this race


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/13 - Trump +4.7
Post by: Seriously? on September 15, 2016, 02:27:20 am
The uncuckening of America has begun.......

But in all seriousness this trend is probably meaningless since the debates will probably reset whatever momentum either candidate has in this race
Unless there's a Nixon-Kennedy moment, debates generally do little in the grand scheme of things. The biggest challenge for this poll will be next Monday, when the Monday folks that really through this survey off get re-interviewed.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/14 - Trump +5.9
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 15, 2016, 03:39:22 am
Nice :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/14 - Trump +6.4
Post by: Seriously? on September 16, 2016, 02:12:36 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/15) Trump +6.4%
Trump: 47.4% (+0.2)
Clinton: 41.0% (-0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/15 - Trump +6.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 16, 2016, 04:35:28 am
It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? :D


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/15 - Trump +6.4
Post by: michelle on September 16, 2016, 05:12:09 am
Old Formula
Trump 49% (-1)
Clinton 39% (+2)

New Formula
Trump 47% (-1)
Clinton 41% (+1)

The race send to be stabilizing around a mid-single digit Trump lead, which makes sense for a tossup race if you take into account the house effect.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/15 - Trump +6.4
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 16, 2016, 03:31:05 pm
It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? :D
Dream on. Plus, he peaked higher during the conventions, if I remember correctly.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/15 - Trump +6.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 16, 2016, 03:58:55 pm
It is all-time-high for Trump. But is it new normal? :D
Dream on. Plus, he peaked higher during the conventions, if I remember correctly.
No, 47.4% is his highest result, though he got the same numbers during the convention's peak


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/15 - Trump +6.4
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 16, 2016, 04:08:12 pm
If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/15 - Trump +6.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 16, 2016, 04:12:51 pm
If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Yes, there is a reason, why one generally should not look at crosstabs.

But should we also dismiss all the state polls that agree with the "trends" of LA Times? ::)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/15 - Trump +6.4
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on September 16, 2016, 06:35:18 pm
If anyone is interested... it looks like Trumps latest surge in this poll is almost 100% due to a surge among African Americans... all the way up to nearly 20%. I'm a tad skeptical.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
Yes, there is a reason, why one generally should not look at crosstabs.

But should we also dismiss all the state polls that agree with the "trends" of LA Times? ::)

     Crosstabs can point to flaws in poll numbers, but I grimace at people reflexively looking at crosstabs to find faults. There's almost always weird stuff in there.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/15 - Trump +6.0
Post by: Seriously? on September 17, 2016, 02:12:23 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/15) Trump +6.0%
Trump: 47.2% (-0.2)
Clinton: 41.2% (+0.2)

The free fall has stopped. Now it's time to see if there will be a correction starting next Monday.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 17, 2016, 03:58:51 am
So far, so good ::)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: StatesPoll on September 17, 2016, 05:46:53 am

(Image Link)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 17, 2016, 08:47:42 am
Um, this basically means that Clinton is doing better than a week ago. Not sure why you're celebrating...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 17, 2016, 08:50:37 am
Um, this basically means that Clinton is doing better than a week ago. Not sure why you're celebrating :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: StatesPoll on September 17, 2016, 09:14:02 am

+6% leads = enough to celebrate



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: michelle on September 17, 2016, 09:21:36 am
Old Formula
Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 42% (+3)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-2)
Clinton 43% (+2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 17, 2016, 10:20:28 am
he just fell by .4 percent, where 1 week ago he hadn't even started to surge. This is a sign that we're returning to pre-surge levels.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 17, 2016, 10:43:51 am
he just fell by .4 percent, where 1 week ago he hadn't even started to surge.
:'(

Old Formula
Trump 46% (-3)
Clinton 42% (+3)

New Formula
Trump 45% (-2)
Clinton 43% (+2)
:)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 17, 2016, 11:01:49 am
This forum spends way too much energy on analyzing this garbage.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 17, 2016, 11:30:44 am
This forum spends way too much energy on analyzing this garbage.
How come you didn't share you analysis in IA-Monmouth: Trump +8 thread? ???

Or in FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 thread? ???

Those are A pollsters :D


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/16 - Trump +6.0
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 17, 2016, 11:44:16 am
This forum spends way too much energy on analyzing this garbage.
How come you didn't share you analysis in IA-Monmouth: Trump +8 thread? ???

Or in FL/OH- CNN: Trump +3 and +5 thread? ???

Those are A pollsters :D

If you want people to take you seriously, maybe stop regurgitating whatever discredited fraud and GOP-operative Nate Silver tells you.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/17 - Trump +6.7
Post by: Seriously? on September 18, 2016, 02:13:29 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/17) Trump +6.7%
Trump: 47.7% (+0.5)
Clinton: 41.0% (-0.2)

The beat goes on after a one-day break. Trump's 47.7% total is his highest-performing number in the history of the poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/17 - Trump +6.7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 18, 2016, 03:29:42 am
Good news, but just might be lagging + noise. We'll need to wait 3-5 days to draw conclusions about the trend.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/17 - Trump +6.7
Post by: michelle on September 18, 2016, 08:17:29 am
Old Formula
Trump 51% (+5)
Clinton 40% (-2)

New Formula
Trump 48% (+3)
Clinton 42% (-1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/17 - Trump +6.7
Post by: JJC on September 18, 2016, 08:58:24 am
It. Keeps. Going. Up!

Trump has increased his top-line on average +.6 points per day.

Based on my calculations, the Orange Overlord will be at 77.7% by election day!

My math is infallible.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/18 - Trump +6.7
Post by: Seriously? on September 19, 2016, 02:38:12 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/18) Trump +6.7%
Trump: 47.8% (+0.1)
Clinton: 41.1% (+0.1)

Both candidates gain .1%. Trump's number is a new high.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/18 - Trump +6.7
Post by: StatesPoll on September 19, 2016, 02:58:06 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/18) Trump +6.7%
Trump: 47.8% (+0.1)
Clinton: 41.1% (+0.1)

Both candidates gain .1%. Trump's number is a new high.


Obama: Would be 'personal insult' to legacy if black voters don't back Clinton (CNN)
http://www.cnn.com/2016/09/17/politics/obama-black-congressional-caucus/

Despite of Obama's racism.
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

Black: Hillary 70.9% | TRUMP 20.1%(!)   <-> 2012:  Obama 93% | Romney 6% (+87% margins)
Hispanic: Hillary 55.1% | TRUMP 31.6% <-> 2012: Obama 72% | Romney 27% (+45% margins)
White: TRUMP 56.0% | Hillary 32.7%  <-> 2012: Obama 39% | Romney 59% (+20% margins)

Trump’s support among Black: 20.1% (LA Times Tracking 9/12-9/18)
(Image Link)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/18 - Trump +6.7
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 19, 2016, 05:28:55 am
Looks like whatever bizarre bump happened in the African American numbers is straightening itself out. I don't get why the poll behaves this way (you'd think you'd see movement among whites as well) but whatever.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/18 - Trump +6.7
Post by: michelle on September 19, 2016, 02:34:23 pm
Old Formula Trump +6
Clinton 42% (+2)
Trump 48% (-3)

New Formula Trump +4
Clinton 43% (+1)
Trump 47% (-1)

One of the reasons for a huge Trump lead is a sudden lack of enthusiasm among Clinton supporters, who have generally been more enthusiastic than Trump supporters throughout the campaign. The good news (if you want Clinton to win) is that enthusiasm suddenly increased yesterday. It may be statistical noise, or it could be a sign of future trends. This should be something to keep an eye on as this poll continues to change. Changes in enthusiasm appear to affect the black vote more than anything else as both times Trump jumped and Clinton fell in the black vote, either enthusiasm for Trump shot up (like the first time) or Clinton enthusiasm fell (like this time).


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/18 - Trump +6.7
Post by: Seriously? on September 20, 2016, 02:14:14 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/19) Trump +5.4%
Trump: 47.1% (-0.7%)
Clinton: 41.7% (+0.6%)

Today was the day you'd expect the bounce to start receding as last Monday was Trump's biggest jump. Clinton regained quite a bit (net 1.3%), but not nearly as much as Trump gained last Monday (net 3.1%).


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/18 - Trump +6.7
Post by: michelle on September 20, 2016, 05:25:08 am
Old Formula Clinton +2
Clinton 45% (+3)
Trump 43% (-5)

New Formula Tie
Clinton 44% (+1)
Trump 44% (-4)

Clinton supporters now lead in enthusiasm again and Trump falls with Black voters.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/18 - Trump +6.7
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 20, 2016, 06:53:46 am
It begins.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Seriously? on September 21, 2016, 04:18:52 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/20) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.3% (-0.8%)
Clinton: 42.2% (+0.5%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/19 - Trump +5.4
Post by: President Johnson on September 21, 2016, 04:57:55 am
The trend continues. Trump is in decline again.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/19 - Trump +5.4
Post by: michelle on September 21, 2016, 05:13:16 am
Old Formula Clinton +3
Clinton 45% (=)
Trump 42% (-1)

New Formula Clinton +1
Clinton 44% (=)
Trump 43% (-1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Panda Express on September 21, 2016, 06:41:05 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/20) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.3% (-0.8%)
Clinton: 42.2% (+0.5%)

Excellent. That's another $200 profit for me on the weekly PredictIt market.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Simfan34 on September 21, 2016, 07:47:39 am
Despite its immediately obvious shortcoming(s), this poll is actually useful.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on September 21, 2016, 08:00:21 am
Despite it's immediately obvious shortcoming(s), this poll is actually useful.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Mallow on September 21, 2016, 08:11:21 am
Despite it's immediately obvious shortcoming(s), this poll is actually useful.

That's what I've been trying to say this whole time :P

It's the classic illustration of precision vs. accuracy. The poll seems like it may be highly precise, and consistently inaccurate. It's like trying to hit the center of the dart board, but always being two inches down and to the left. But as long as you know that the bias is consistent, you can just correct for that bias and then you have highly valuable, useful information.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 21, 2016, 08:15:12 am
Yes, the poll serves a broad purpose and has shown the trends - I just don't want it included in aggregates when it's SO off.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Mallow on September 21, 2016, 08:26:29 am
Yes, the poll serves a broad purpose and has shown the trends - I just don't want it included in aggregates when it's SO off.

I think it needs to be "bias-corrected" before being included in an aggregate, but then only if you bias-correct all polls in a similar manner. I agree that simply "throwing it in the average" when it clearly has such a strong bias is not the way to go.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 21, 2016, 08:54:56 am
Despite it's immediately obvious shortcoming(s), this poll is actually useful.

That's what I've been trying to say this whole time :P

It's the classic illustration of precision vs. accuracy. The poll seems like it may be highly precise, and consistently inaccurate. It's like trying to hit the center of the dart board, but always being two inches down and to the left. But as long as you know that the bias is consistent, you can just correct for that bias and then you have highly valuable, useful information.

I tend to agree, but the fact that the recent shift towards Trump was driven by a huge swing among African Americans in this panel undercuts the "precision" argument a bit.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Mallow on September 21, 2016, 08:59:08 am
Despite it's immediately obvious shortcoming(s), this poll is actually useful.

That's what I've been trying to say this whole time :P

It's the classic illustration of precision vs. accuracy. The poll seems like it may be highly precise, and consistently inaccurate. It's like trying to hit the center of the dart board, but always being two inches down and to the left. But as long as you know that the bias is consistent, you can just correct for that bias and then you have highly valuable, useful information.

I tend to agree, but the fact that the recent shift towards Trump was driven by a huge swing among African Americans in this panel undercuts the "precision" argument a bit.

Yeah, I was saying that under the assumption that the results were consistently biased. If they're not, that's a different story. Of course, the small sample size for AA's could be the reason for the funky-looking crosstabs. It's still possible that the overall results are precise, but the specifics when it comes to racial breakdown are wonky. That's why caution is always advised when trying to "unskew" based on crosstab data.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 21, 2016, 09:06:25 am
Despite it's immediately obvious shortcoming(s), this poll is actually useful.

That's what I've been trying to say this whole time :P

It's the classic illustration of precision vs. accuracy. The poll seems like it may be highly precise, and consistently inaccurate. It's like trying to hit the center of the dart board, but always being two inches down and to the left. But as long as you know that the bias is consistent, you can just correct for that bias and then you have highly valuable, useful information.

I tend to agree, but the fact that the recent shift towards Trump was driven by a huge swing among African Americans in this panel undercuts the "precision" argument a bit.

Yeah, I was saying that under the assumption that the results were consistently biased. If they're not, that's a different story. Of course, the small sample size for AA's could be the reason for the funky-looking crosstabs. It's still possible that the overall results are precise, but the specifics when it comes to racial breakdown are wonky. That's why caution is always advised when trying to "unskew" based on crosstab data.

Oh, I agree... I just think we've all bought into the "accuracy" of this poll a bit too much. I'm not calling for unskewing, just skepticism of the idea that this method is better at certain things than we have any reason to think it is.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Seriously? on September 22, 2016, 02:17:03 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/21) Trump +2.4%
Trump: 45.4% (-0.9%)
Clinton: 43.0% (+0.8%)

The bounce is clearly fading.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Ebsy on September 22, 2016, 02:38:34 am
Not good!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Interlocutor on September 22, 2016, 03:31:40 am
Gonna bury my head in the crosstabs a bit, but a pretty sharp drop in support for Trump among voters under 34


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: michelle on September 22, 2016, 05:00:35 am
Old Formula Clinton +8
Clinton 48% (+3)
Trump 40% (-2)

New Formula Clinton +4
Clinton 46% (+2)
Trump 42% (-1)

Clinton's gains are larger than yesterday's, as the two biggest swing demographics in this poll (young people and rich people), all turn to Clinton.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/21 - Trump +2.4
Post by: Gass3268 on September 23, 2016, 07:34:37 am
No update?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/20 - Trump +4.1
Post by: HokeyDood on September 23, 2016, 07:48:11 am
Old Formula Clinton +8
Clinton 48% (+3)
Trump 40% (-2)

New Formula Clinton +4
Clinton 46% (+2)
Trump 42% (-1)

Clinton's gains are larger than yesterday's, as the two biggest swing demographics in this poll (young people and rich people), all turn to Clinton.

Wowie kaboodles!  Youngs are finally realizing that #FeelingTheJohnson is a flirtation with disease of the country. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/21 - Trump +2.4
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 23, 2016, 08:04:32 am
so, StatesPoll, what do you think? Do they oversample millenial Texans with addresses ending in "3"? ;)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/21 - Trump +2.4
Post by: Seriously? on September 23, 2016, 08:21:46 am
Oddly, no. They haven't updated yesterday's numbers. I think they tried to, but somehow swung and missed. Neither the LA Times or the USC site has updated numbers yet.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/21 - Trump +2.4
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 23, 2016, 08:33:26 am
Oddly, no. They haven't updated yesterday's numbers. I think they tried to, but somehow swung and missed. Neither the LA Times or the USC site has updated numbers yet.

God, I hope they're not messing with their methodology or something. Fingers crossed this is just a blip.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/21 - Trump +2.4
Post by: Seriously? on September 23, 2016, 09:16:16 am
Oddly, no. They haven't updated yesterday's numbers. I think they tried to, but somehow swung and missed. Neither the LA Times or the USC site has updated numbers yet.

God, I hope they're not messing with their methodology or something. Fingers crossed this is just a blip.

This happened once before, but the LA Times got the numbers out somehow.

USC updated the data files when they were supposed to at midnight PST, but they didn't contain the 9/22 data. I am sure once it's early enough on the West coast, someone will notice the error and they'll fix it.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/21 - Trump +2.4
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 23, 2016, 09:49:49 am
Oddly, no. They haven't updated yesterday's numbers. I think they tried to, but somehow swung and missed. Neither the LA Times or the USC site has updated numbers yet.

God, I hope they're not messing with their methodology or something. Fingers crossed this is just a blip.

This happened once before, but the LA Times got the numbers out somehow.

USC updated the data files when they were supposed to at midnight PST, but they didn't contain the 9/22 data. I am sure once it's early enough on the West coast, someone will notice the error and they'll fix it.

Cool... I would anticipate a small shift to Clinton... yesterday was the last day that a big Trump day looked to be added a week ago.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/22 - Trump +1.4
Post by: Seriously? on September 23, 2016, 03:42:22 pm
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/22) Trump +1.4%
Trump: 44.8% (-0.6%)
Clinton: 43.4% (+0.4%)

Better late than never.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/21 - Trump +2.4
Post by: michelle on September 23, 2016, 07:11:48 pm
Old Formula Clinton +5
Clinton 46% (-2)
Trump 41% (+1)

New Formula Clinton +1
Clinton 44% (-2)
Trump 43% (+1)

The race seems to be settling again. Most of the change in these formulas in recent days has been statistical noise. The next big change should be coming right after the debates.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/23 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Seriously? on September 24, 2016, 02:12:42 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/23) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.3% (+0.4%)
Clinton: 43.3% (-0.1%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/24 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Seriously? on September 25, 2016, 02:12:53 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/24) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.4% (+1.1%)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/24 - Trump +2.0
Post by: StatesPoll on September 25, 2016, 03:00:26 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/24) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.4% (+1.1%)
Clinton: 42.3% (-1.0%)

Peryhaps Bump by Cruz's endorsement?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/23 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Hilldog on September 25, 2016, 03:01:42 am
He was up 7 in the LA Times a week ago. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/24 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee on September 25, 2016, 01:13:44 pm
So Trump lost ground among those samples that were affected by the birther issue and gained ground among those post NY Bombing?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/24 - Trump +4.1
Post by: michelle on September 25, 2016, 03:03:25 pm
Old Formula Trump +17
Trump 53% (+5)
Clinton 36% (-7)

New Formula Trump +13
Trump 51% (+3)
Clinton 38% (-3)

Trump supporters have had a strong increase in enthusiasm (+0.9 to 84.1, Clinton supporters are at 83.3 enthusiasm, down 0.2). Young voters and rich voters are now back to Trump, and uneducated and male voters have swung hard away from Clinton. For some odd reason, black voters are having one of those pro-Trump swings again (due to enthusiasm, as I said before), but this doesn't mean we should discount the current trends.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/24 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Ebsy on September 26, 2016, 12:11:39 am
The shifts in the this tracker are almost entirely due to their weird seesawing in black support for Clinton. Really just a terrible poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/24 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Seriously? on September 26, 2016, 02:37:13 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/25) Trump +3.9%
Trump: 46.3% (-0.1%)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.1%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/24 - Trump +4.1
Post by: Hilldog on September 26, 2016, 03:32:14 am
My question is what demographics is the LA Times using?  Hopefully they're not doing what alot of pollsters did in 2012 and revert back to the 2004 demographics giving Romney a false lead. 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/24 - Trump +4.1
Post by: michelle on September 26, 2016, 05:25:40 am
Old Formula Trump +3
Trump 46% (-7)
Clinton 43% (+7)

New Formula Trump +4
Trump 46% (-5)
Clinton 42% (+4)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/26 - Trump +3.5
Post by: Seriously? on September 27, 2016, 02:18:28 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/26) Trump +3.5%
Trump: 46.2% (-0.1%)
Clinton: 42.7% (+0.3%)

Obviously, no real debate movement either way tonight. If anything, it starts hitting tomorrow.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/26 - Trump +3.5
Post by: michelle on September 27, 2016, 05:27:43 am
I'm switching entirely to the new formula after the first debate.

9/26 Trump +2
Trump 46% (=)
Clinton 44% (+2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/26 - Trump +3.5
Post by: Seriously? on September 28, 2016, 02:36:26 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/27) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.5%)
Clinton: 42.6% (-0.1%)

Slight advantage Trump after Day 1 of post-debate panel is surveyed.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/26 - Trump +3.5
Post by: StatesPoll on September 28, 2016, 03:49:55 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/27) Trump +4.1%
Trump: 46.7% (+0.5%)
Clinton: 42.6% (-0.1%)

Slight advantage Trump after Day 1 of post-debate panel is surveyed.

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (9/21-9/27)
Black: TRUMP 18.2% | Hillary 74.3%

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/
(Image Link)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/27 - Trump +4.1
Post by: michelle on September 28, 2016, 02:02:35 pm
9/27 Trump +5
Trump 48% (+2)
Clinton 43% (-1)

I'll wait a few days for post-debate analysis. Today could be the result of a pro-Clinton day rolling off the average (Trump gained .5 today, losing .8 last week). And I'd like to thank States Poll for pointing out why this bump may not necessarily be true, and correcting the LA Times by showing that Trump only has one African-American.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/28 - Trump +3.8
Post by: Seriously? on September 29, 2016, 02:31:46 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/28) Trump +3.8%
Trump: 46.7% (--%)
Clinton: 42.9% (+0.3%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/27 - Trump +4.1
Post by: michelle on September 29, 2016, 05:12:00 am
9/28 Trump +2
Trump 46% (-2)
Clinton 44% (+1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/28 - Trump +3.8
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 29, 2016, 08:42:41 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/28) Trump +3.8%
Trump: 46.7% (--%)
Clinton: 42.9% (+0.3%)

Not bad considering the day that dropped was one of Clinton's best in recent weeks.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Seriously? on September 30, 2016, 02:26:25 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/29) Trump +5.6%
Trump: 47.3% (+0.6%)
Clinton: 41.7% (-1.2%)

A Trump bounce appears to have emerged.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 30, 2016, 02:27:31 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/29) Trump +5.6%
Trump: 47.3% (+0.6%)
Clinton: 41.7% (-1.2%)

A Trump bounce appears to have emerged.

Lol


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on September 30, 2016, 02:38:22 am
I am laughing at this poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Ebsy on September 30, 2016, 02:39:07 am
Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 30, 2016, 02:42:22 am
Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?

Because this time it wouldn't different ... something something liberals


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on September 30, 2016, 02:49:00 am
since there is no practical reason why he should have soared, i guess this is the new normal....or at least it suggests that republicana...who are as we all know overrepresented in the LA poll...can't be shamed enough anymore...^^


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: BlueSwan on September 30, 2016, 03:03:23 am
That was a bit unexpected.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on September 30, 2016, 03:06:41 am
Republicans could nominate Hitler and they'd be more supportive of him when he'd speak his evil crap. Truly a evil party.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on September 30, 2016, 03:19:49 am
Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?

Well, someone ought to play the role of poll-truther now that JJ and krazey left Atlas.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: dspNY on September 30, 2016, 04:19:34 am
This thread should be locked because it's obvious this poll is a joke


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: afleitch on September 30, 2016, 04:21:34 am
Apparently Trump's widest margin amongst age groups is now the under 34's.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: JJC on September 30, 2016, 04:24:17 am
Not good for Hillary.

Trump is literally .5% away in FL from taking the EV lead according to RCP. If Hillary can't open a lead after a 'bad' debate for Trump then she's in big trouble.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Gass3268 on September 30, 2016, 05:19:57 am
Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?

Well, someone ought to play the role of poll-truther now that JJ and krazey left Atlas.

JJ is actually back.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Seriously? on September 30, 2016, 05:47:02 am
Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?
Obnoxious much? What are you doing here after 2014?

People are permitted to interpret data differently. I am growing tired of how a bunch of obnoxious brownshirts you red avatars are because I don't agree with you and your crooked candidate and your narratives, which are not based in reality.

70% of you red hacks had Hillary up 10 and the election over in August. And who was the one saying it would be close? Yes. This "embarrassed" blue avatar. Who was right?

I rest my case.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: afleitch on September 30, 2016, 06:16:12 am
Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?
Obnoxious much? What are you doing here after 2014?

People are permitted to interpret data differently. I am growing tired of how a bunch of obnoxious brownshirts you red avatars are because I don't agree with you and your crooked candidate and your narratives, which are not based in reality.

70% of you red hacks had Hillary up 10 and the election over in August. And who was the one saying it would be close? Yes. This "embarrassed" blue avatar. Who was right?

I rest my case.

Then stop pretending you objectively understand polling.

Obama's internal polling data never had him behind on the national vote throughout the whole campaign. Neither did the Pollster polling average for that matter (in part because of how it vetted the polls going into the model) At this stage in 2012, Obama had a 2.8 lead. This was at the time of the first debate poll dive and his lead fell. Pollster also didn't show an Obama recovery after the debates; more of a flatline and then a recovery in the final few days. Obama's internal polling found the same thing, but at a higher baseline; dipping to 52% after the first debate and not really moving.

So far Clinton has also always been ahead with Pollster and currently has a 4.5 lead. It's a 3.3 lead on the multiple candidates tracker too. She is doing better than Obama in terms of her national lead at this stage of the campaign

It may well be close, if the end result is close. But 2012 was considered a close race until after the election it was accepted it was never a close race at all.





Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Seriously? on September 30, 2016, 06:34:41 am
Why did Seriously? come back this year? Wasn't he embarrassed enough in 2012?
Obnoxious much? What are you doing here after 2014?

People are permitted to interpret data differently. I am growing tired of how a bunch of obnoxious brownshirts you red avatars are because I don't agree with you and your crooked candidate and your narratives, which are not based in reality.

70% of you red hacks had Hillary up 10 and the election over in August. And who was the one saying it would be close? Yes. This "embarrassed" blue avatar. Who was right?

I rest my case.

Then stop pretending you objectively understand polling.

Obama's internal polling data never had him behind on the national vote throughout the whole campaign. Neither did the Pollster polling average for that matter (in part because of how it vetted the polls going into the model) At this stage in 2012, Obama had a 2.8 lead. This was at the time of the first debate poll dive and his lead fell. Pollster also didn't show an Obama recovery after the debates; more of a flatline and then a recovery in the final few days. Obama's internal polling found the same thing, but at a higher baseline; dipping to 52% after the first debate and not really moving.

So far Clinton has also always been ahead with Pollster and currently has a 4.5 lead. It's a 3.3 lead on the multiple candidates tracker too. She is doing better than Obama in terms of her national lead at this stage of the campaign

It may well be close, if the end result is close. But 2012 was considered a close race until after the election it was accepted it was never a close race at all.
I understand polling just fine. I do not subscribe to the pollster theory though. Fivethirtyeight or RCP, not a mouthpiece of the left.

You hacks just have your panties in a wad because I sarcastically stated that there was a Trump bounce here, just like you do with every pro-Hillary poll that comes out. It's comical how vitriolic the response was.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on September 30, 2016, 06:45:56 am
These tracking polls are at least good to see how the race might be changing before traditional polls are able to capture that shift.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Panda Express on September 30, 2016, 07:15:26 am
My issue with this poll is that it gets included in the RCP everyday. A poll that has the same sample over and over shouldn't be repeatedly put in the RCP.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Seriously? on September 30, 2016, 07:45:51 am
My issue with this poll is that it gets included in the RCP everyday. A poll that has the same sample over and over shouldn't be repeatedly put in the RCP.
Of course it should, with the latest results only, as RCP does. It's not like it's given a disproportional weight.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Absolution9 on September 30, 2016, 08:07:25 am
My issue with this poll is that it gets included in the RCP everyday. A poll that has the same sample over and over shouldn't be repeatedly put in the RCP.

I think RCP included it because its being sponsored by a major newspaper (it wasn't included under RAND in 2012), otherwise I agree, its a panel poll not a random sample poll.  In 2012 when RAND was running it the result was pretty accurate but its a small sample and they could have just gotten lucky.  In 2012 the cross tabs weren't available, this year they are and look pretty screwy.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Edu on September 30, 2016, 11:09:27 am
(Image Link)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Seriously? on September 30, 2016, 11:36:02 am
Oh thanks. Keep them coming, you hack. I was ultimately correct in my assumption. Ohio finished at +3.

Why don't you post my 2014 posts where I was right and you weren't?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Gustaf on September 30, 2016, 11:52:41 am
Oh thanks. Keep them coming, you hack. I was ultimately correct in my assumption. Ohio finished at +3.

Why don't you post my 2014 posts where I was right and you weren't?

You're not even trying now. PPP's poll had Obama +5, the result was Obama +3 - well within the margin of error. You're the one who is a deluded hack arguing over the polls now as well as then.

EDIT: Also, how could he post your 2014 posts when no such posts exist? Are you so deluded you forgot you had no posts here for a 4 year period?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Iosif on September 30, 2016, 12:05:39 pm
We should start a support group for Seriously. The next few months are going to be rough for him.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Seriously? on September 30, 2016, 01:37:31 pm
We should start a support group for Seriously. The next few months are going to be rough for him.
They are? Thanks Nostradamus.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Buh her emails! on September 30, 2016, 01:37:59 pm
Trash poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: King on September 30, 2016, 02:30:42 pm
This is just a huge scheme to get old conservatives to buy subscriptions to the LA Times.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: michelle on September 30, 2016, 02:42:00 pm
Anyway, time for the formula! But first, some of Seriously?'s 2014 posts, to be fair:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=profile;u=9758;sa=showPosts;start=2450

There are a few good ones.

9/29 Trump +8
Trump 47% (+1)
Clinton 39% (-5)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Joe Republic on September 30, 2016, 03:07:00 pm
Why don't you post my 2014 posts where I was right and you weren't?

These literally don't exist.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Maxwell on September 30, 2016, 03:10:11 pm
It's pretty hilarious to lie about posting on this forum in 2014.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Buh her emails! on September 30, 2016, 07:51:47 pm
Someone should rename this thread the "the roasting of Seriously"


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Edu on September 30, 2016, 11:13:53 pm
You're not even trying now. PPP's poll had Obama +5, the result was Obama +3 - well within the margin of error. You're the one who is a deluded hack arguing over the polls now as well as then.

EDIT: Also, how could he post your 2014 posts when no such posts exist? Are you so deluded you forgot you had no posts here for a 4 year period?

Funny thing is that not only he apparently didn't post at all, but I also didn't make any predictions in 2014. Hell, I don't think I even wrote about the election in the whole year. It must be cool living in another dimension like this guy.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 01, 2016, 02:13:13 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/30) Trump +4.3%
Trump: 46.7% (-0.6%)
Clinton: 42.3% (+0.6%)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Smeulders on October 01, 2016, 12:50:44 pm
I've been following the discussion about this tracking poll for a bit and so far I've mostly followed the 538 opinion. This poll is useful as long as you use it to track trends, not as an accurate indicator of the race. However, today inspired by "the formula" I've been thinking about what the daily fluctuations of this poll can tell us. Looking at these, it appears that this poll is very elastic, likely exaggerating swings in both directions. (Apologies if anyone remarked on this previously, I didn't read through the complete thread yet.)

Let's take a look at today's numbers. Today the results are C:42.3%, T:46.7%. Yesterday it was C:41.7%, T:47.3%. Assuming that the "daily cohorts" are all of an equal size, we see the following:
x_{t-7} / 7 + (6/7)y = 41.7%
x_t / 7 + (6/7)y = 42.3%
with x_t the % Clinton supporters in the Saturday cohort today, x_{t-7} the % Clinton supports in the Saturday cohort last week and y the % Clinton supports in the other cohorts polled over the previous 6 days.

Solving this (and doing the same for Trump) we see that among the Saturday cohort, there has been a massive 8.4 percentage point swing for Clinton over the last week. Doing the same for the Friday cohort, there has been an even larger 11.2 percentage point swing for Trump. In fact, during September there have been 7 swings of over 10 points (including one 23.1 points swing) among daily cohorts in a weeks time. Even though the daily cohorts are fairly small and have high MOE, such regular large swings should probably be much rarer.

The methodology of this poll can explain the elasticity. Remember that this poll weights based on self-reported likelihood to vote. Good or bad news for a candidate thus doesn't only influence the amount of supporters, but through increased enthusiasm further amplifies swings.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/30 - Trump +4.3
Post by: Alcon on October 01, 2016, 12:52:32 pm
Great post, Smeulders -- welcome to the forum! :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/1 - Trump +4.7
Post by: cinyc on October 02, 2016, 02:19:31 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/1) Trump +4.7%
Trump: 46.9% (+0.2)
Clinton: 42.2% (-0.1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 9/29 - Trump +5.6
Post by: cp on October 02, 2016, 03:21:28 am
I've been following the discussion about this tracking poll for a bit and so far I've mostly followed the 538 opinion. This poll is useful as long as you use it to track trends, not as an accurate indicator of the race. However, today inspired by "the formula" I've been thinking about what the daily fluctuations of this poll can tell us. Looking at these, it appears that this poll is very elastic, likely exaggerating swings in both directions. (Apologies if anyone remarked on this previously, I didn't read through the complete thread yet.)

Let's take a look at today's numbers. Today the results are C:42.3%, T:46.7%. Yesterday it was C:41.7%, T:47.3%. Assuming that the "daily cohorts" are all of an equal size, we see the following:
x_{t-7} / 7 + (6/7)y = 41.7%
x_t / 7 + (6/7)y = 42.3%
with x_t the % Clinton supporters in the Saturday cohort today, x_{t-7} the % Clinton supports in the Saturday cohort last week and y the % Clinton supports in the other cohorts polled over the previous 6 days.

Solving this (and doing the same for Trump) we see that among the Saturday cohort, there has been a massive 8.4 percentage point swing for Clinton over the last week. Doing the same for the Friday cohort, there has been an even larger 11.2 percentage point swing for Trump. In fact, during September there have been 7 swings of over 10 points (including one 23.1 points swing) among daily cohorts in a weeks time. Even though the daily cohorts are fairly small and have high MOE, such regular large swings should probably be much rarer.

The methodology of this poll can explain the elasticity. Remember that this poll weights based on self-reported likelihood to vote. Good or bad news for a candidate thus doesn't only influence the amount of supporters, but through increased enthusiasm further amplifies swings.

Great analysis! From my non-mathematical lay observations I've noticed that the poll seems to lag about a week behind the consensus of other pollsters/trackers. That said, I've been getting more skeptical of the underlying methodology (self-reporting, only using 2012 voters).

Also, for those of us who also don't have the time to read through the entire threat, could someone (re)explain the 'formula' and how it comes to its parallel numbers each day? :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/1 - Trump +4.7
Post by: michelle on October 02, 2016, 08:08:16 am
8/1 Trump +6
Trump 48%
Clinton 42%


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/1 - Trump +4.7
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on October 02, 2016, 10:00:58 am
Why are trackers the only polls that show Drumpf ahead?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/1 - Trump +4.7
Post by: skoods on October 02, 2016, 10:38:54 am
Why are trackers the only polls that show Drumpf ahead?

The same reason Rasmussen tracking and Gallup tracking were the only ones that showed Romney ahead in the final polls before the 2012 election.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/1 - Trump +4.7
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 02, 2016, 10:50:34 am
i guess those are the least "adjusted for reality" and must mostly stick with their chosen way/sample.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/2 - Trump +4.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 03, 2016, 02:15:56 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/2) Trump +4.6%
Trump: 47.0% (+0.1)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.2)

It's worth noting that the sample has six of the seven debate days in it now (with the seventh day being debate night). There really is no significant statistical change outside of basic noise with this survey. (Trump netted 1.1% over the week.)

Trump was at 46.2 before the debate (9/26) and is at 47 now. Clinton was at 42.7 before the debate and is at 42.4% now. This poll, at least, has the debate as a non-event, which is in step with the polling after most debates.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/2 - Trump +4.6
Post by: Beat-‘Em-All Beto on October 03, 2016, 02:17:36 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/2) Trump +4.6%
Trump: 47.0% (+0.1)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.2)

It's worth noting that the sample has six of the seven debate days in it now (with the seventh day being debate night). There really is no significant statistical change outside of basic noise with this survey. (Trump netted 1.1% over the week.)

Trump was at 46.2 before the debate (9/26) and is at 47 now. Clinton was at 42.7 before the debate and is at 42.4% now. This poll, at least, has the debate as a non-event, which is in step with the polling after most debates.
And is out of step with all other polling after this debate


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/2 - Trump +4.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 03, 2016, 02:23:29 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/2) Trump +4.6%
Trump: 47.0% (+0.1)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.2)

It's worth noting that the sample has six of the seven debate days in it now (with the seventh day being debate night). There really is no significant statistical change outside of basic noise with this survey. (Trump netted 1.1% over the week.)

Trump was at 46.2 before the debate (9/26) and is at 47 now. Clinton was at 42.7 before the debate and is at 42.4% now. This poll, at least, has the debate as a non-event, which is in step with the polling after most debates.
And is out of step with all other polling after this debate
Not necessarily. UPI hasn't shown that much of a net shift (pro-Trump, actually). I also believe Trump closed the gap with Reuters. There was slight movement to Hillary with the People's Pundit Daily results.

The NOLA sample seems to be pro-Clinton, as does Rasmussen, Morning Consult and Fox News.

PPP polled the race, but doesn't have a good pre-debate poll for comparison.

I was shocked that NBC, CBS, CNN and ABC didn't release polls over the weekend.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/2 - Trump +4.6
Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 03, 2016, 09:27:35 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/2) Trump +4.6%
Trump: 47.0% (+0.1)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.2)

It's worth noting that the sample has six of the seven debate days in it now (with the seventh day being debate night). There really is no significant statistical change outside of basic noise with this survey. (Trump netted 1.1% over the week.)

Trump was at 46.2 before the debate (9/26) and is at 47 now. Clinton was at 42.7 before the debate and is at 42.4% now. This poll, at least, has the debate as a non-event, which is in step with the polling after most debates.
And is out of step with all other polling after this debate
Not necessarily. UPI hasn't shown that much of a net shift (pro-Trump, actually). I also believe Trump closed the gap with Reuters. There was slight movement to Hillary with the People's Pundit Daily results.

The NOLA sample seems to be pro-Clinton, as does Rasmussen, Morning Consult and Fox News.

PPP polled the race, but doesn't have a good pre-debate poll for comparison.

I was shocked that NBC, CBS, CNN and ABC didn't release polls over the weekend.


I think there is one reason to assume that Seriously? is right about the lack of a bounce following the debate based on the LATimes/USC poll, but a couple more reasons to push back.

I do think that the LAT Poll, as a panel, has the potential to smooth out the effects of differential non-response bias. That may explain a good deal of what we're seeing in the other polls. Panels, in theory, should be immune to that. However, knowing that this panel must lose participants through attrition, then new participants have to be added. This must be in part responsible for the wiggle in this poll compared to what you might expect with a more traditional panel. Opting in may be adding a layer of differential non response. New participants are more likely to be pro-Trump as pro-Hillary panelists drop out (rather, they were up to this point).

Additionally, the weights include 2012 vote. That would necessarily mute some swing based on enthusiasm as well. Finally, we know that this poll is showing much more minority support for Trump than nearly all the others. I don't want to unskew, but that is worth noting as well.

In short, I think that the daily internet panels aren't the most likely candidates to show a big bump, but then, that doesn't mean they aren't subject to their own issues.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/2 - Trump +4.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 03, 2016, 10:13:15 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/2) Trump +4.6%
Trump: 47.0% (+0.1)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.2)

It's worth noting that the sample has six of the seven debate days in it now (with the seventh day being debate night). There really is no significant statistical change outside of basic noise with this survey. (Trump netted 1.1% over the week.)

Trump was at 46.2 before the debate (9/26) and is at 47 now. Clinton was at 42.7 before the debate and is at 42.4% now. This poll, at least, has the debate as a non-event, which is in step with the polling after most debates.
And is out of step with all other polling after this debate
Not necessarily. UPI hasn't shown that much of a net shift (pro-Trump, actually). I also believe Trump closed the gap with Reuters. There was slight movement to Hillary with the People's Pundit Daily results.

The NOLA sample seems to be pro-Clinton, as does Rasmussen, Morning Consult and Fox News.

PPP polled the race, but doesn't have a good pre-debate poll for comparison.

I was shocked that NBC, CBS, CNN and ABC didn't release polls over the weekend.


I think there is one reason to assume that Seriously? is right about the lack of a bounce following the debate based on the LATimes/USC poll, but a couple more reasons to push back.

I do think that the LAT Poll, as a panel, has the potential to smooth out the effects of differential non-response bias. That may explain a good deal of what we're seeing in the other polls. Panels, in theory, should be immune to that. However, knowing that this panel must lose participants through attrition, then new participants have to be added. This must be in part responsible for the wiggle in this poll compared to what you might expect with a more traditional panel. Opting in may be adding a layer of differential non response. New participants are more likely to be pro-Trump as pro-Hillary panelists drop out (rather, they were up to this point).

Additionally, the weights include 2012 vote. That would necessarily mute some swing based on enthusiasm as well. Finally, we know that this poll is showing much more minority support for Trump than nearly all the others. I don't want to unskew, but that is worth noting as well.

In short, I think that the daily internet panels aren't the most likely candidates to show a big bump, but then, that doesn't mean they aren't subject to their own issues.
I have to amend what I said after Morning Consult (and to a lesser extent Red Oak) came out this morning. There appears to be a bounce at least in internet polling. It's odd though that the trackers haven't picked up on it.

I think a lot of it has to do with enthusiasm right now for the self-identifieds. IIRC Morning Consult was as low as D+3 and is at D+9 right now.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/2 - Trump +4.6
Post by: nirvanayoda on October 03, 2016, 10:24:36 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/2) Trump +4.6%
Trump: 47.0% (+0.1)
Clinton: 42.4% (+0.2)

It's worth noting that the sample has six of the seven debate days in it now (with the seventh day being debate night). There really is no significant statistical change outside of basic noise with this survey. (Trump netted 1.1% over the week.)

Trump was at 46.2 before the debate (9/26) and is at 47 now. Clinton was at 42.7 before the debate and is at 42.4% now. This poll, at least, has the debate as a non-event, which is in step with the polling after most debates.
And is out of step with all other polling after this debate
Not necessarily. UPI hasn't shown that much of a net shift (pro-Trump, actually). I also believe Trump closed the gap with Reuters. There was slight movement to Hillary with the People's Pundit Daily results.

The NOLA sample seems to be pro-Clinton, as does Rasmussen, Morning Consult and Fox News.

PPP polled the race, but doesn't have a good pre-debate poll for comparison.

I was shocked that NBC, CBS, CNN and ABC didn't release polls over the weekend.


I think there is one reason to assume that Seriously? is right about the lack of a bounce following the debate based on the LATimes/USC poll, but a couple more reasons to push back.

I do think that the LAT Poll, as a panel, has the potential to smooth out the effects of differential non-response bias. That may explain a good deal of what we're seeing in the other polls. Panels, in theory, should be immune to that. However, knowing that this panel must lose participants through attrition, then new participants have to be added. This must be in part responsible for the wiggle in this poll compared to what you might expect with a more traditional panel. Opting in may be adding a layer of differential non response. New participants are more likely to be pro-Trump as pro-Hillary panelists drop out (rather, they were up to this point).

Additionally, the weights include 2012 vote. That would necessarily mute some swing based on enthusiasm as well. Finally, we know that this poll is showing much more minority support for Trump than nearly all the others. I don't want to unskew, but that is worth noting as well.

In short, I think that the daily internet panels aren't the most likely candidates to show a big bump, but then, that doesn't mean they aren't subject to their own issues.
I have to amend what I said after Morning Consult (and to a lesser extent Red Oak) came out this morning. There appears to be a bounce at least in internet polling. It's odd though that the trackers haven't picked up on it.

I think a lot of it has to do with enthusiasm right now for the self-identifieds. IIRC Morning Consult was as low as D+3 and is at D+9 right now.

That would make sense.  People who are part of a panel that is regularly called may just answer the call out of habit, whereas people who are randomly called may decline the call for lack of enthusiasm.  However, it's probably also safe to assume that those same people may not vote for lack of enthusiasm as well.  I think it's clear that Clinton has a lead now and that not much, aside from astonishing Wikileaks information or an unbelievably poor debate, will change that.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/2 - Trump +4.6
Post by: michelle on October 03, 2016, 03:07:54 pm
8/2 Trump +4
Trump 47% (-1)
Clinton 43% (+1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/2 - Trump +4.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 04, 2016, 05:41:32 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/3) Trump +3.9%
Trump: 46.6% (-0.4)
Clinton: 42.7% (+0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/2 - Trump +4.6
Post by: ReapSow on October 04, 2016, 06:58:49 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/3) Trump +3.9%
Trump: 46.6% (-0.4)
Clinton: 42.7% (+0.3)

It won't be long before Sniffles McPorn Star is tweeting this as the only "good" poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/3 - Trump +3.9
Post by: michelle on October 04, 2016, 02:21:51 pm
10/3 Trump +1
Trump 45% (-2)
Clinton 44% (+1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/3 - Trump +3.9
Post by: HokeyDood on October 04, 2016, 03:55:48 pm

What happens once Trumpy loses this one?  What unskewed Truth-O-Meter will he be tweeting about on a daily basis?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/3 - Trump +3.9
Post by: nirvanayoda on October 04, 2016, 04:40:13 pm

What happens once Trumpy loses this one?  What unskewed Truth-O-Meter will he be tweeting about on a daily basis?

The numbers that Mike Wells for Northern Assembly posted and that you quoted aren't real.  That said, your question still is a good one, as it's likely that he will lose the lead in this one too sooner or later.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/4 - Trump +3.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 05, 2016, 02:13:26 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/4) Trump +3.6%
Trump: 46.5% (-0.1)
Clinton: 42.9% (+0.2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/4 - Trump +3.6
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 05, 2016, 02:27:08 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/4) Trump +3.6%
Trump: 46.5% (-0.1)
Clinton: 42.9% (+0.2)

Great poll! Trump is imploding like one of his Atlantic City casinos.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/4 - Trump +3.6
Post by: michelle on October 05, 2016, 03:57:40 pm
10/4 Trump +2
Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 44% (=)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/4 - Trump +3.6
Post by: nirvanayoda on October 05, 2016, 04:24:57 pm

Why do you keep posting fake numbers?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/4 - Trump +3.6
Post by: michelle on October 05, 2016, 04:33:44 pm

8/23 Approximate Numbers

Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.

Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!

It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.

I might be missing something, but doesn't this fail to account for the oldest poll dropping off the average in exchange for the newest one? That would change the average of the previous polls.

I'll try and come up with a new formula that takes into account the days dropping off.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/4 - Trump +3.6
Post by: nirvanayoda on October 05, 2016, 04:38:09 pm

8/23 Approximate Numbers

Clinton 52% (+4)
Trump 38% (-2)

I've decided that I would start using the formula to figure out the approximate numbers for 8/22.

Clinton 48%
Trump 40%

What formula is that? +8 is a bit extreme, probably closer to +5 or +6.

Yes. We can actually calculate, what the last day approximately shows (~ 300 sample):

Trump today:
(6*46.7 + Trump*1)/7 = 46.6 (7 day rolling)
=> Trump = 46.6*7 - 6*46.7 = 46%

Clinton today:
(6*40.6 + Clinton*1)/7 = 41.7 (7 day rolling)
=> Clinton = 7*41.7 - 6*40.6 = 48.3%

But since the sample is so small (~300) the MOE is YUUUGE!

It's not perfect, but it gives you some idea.

I might be missing something, but doesn't this fail to account for the oldest poll dropping off the average in exchange for the newest one? That would change the average of the previous polls.

I'll try and come up with a new formula that takes into account the days dropping off.

 

My sincere apologies. I didn't realize you were calculating daily results.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/4 - Trump +3.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 05, 2016, 04:55:52 pm
They're not fake numbers, they are the computed 1-day tracking average for the 7-day tracker.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/4 - Trump +3.6
Post by: nirvanayoda on October 05, 2016, 05:15:26 pm
They're not fake numbers, they are the computed 1-day tracking average for the 7-day tracker.

Yeah, I realized that after he posted again. It's interesting, assuming that the numbers are correct.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/5 - Trump +4.0
Post by: Seriously? on October 06, 2016, 03:18:46 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/5) Trump +4.0%
Trump: 46.6% (+0.1)
Clinton: 42.6% (-0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/5 - Trump +4.0
Post by: michelle on October 06, 2016, 02:35:32 pm
10/5 Trump +5
Trump 47% (+1)
Clinton 42% (-2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/5 - Trump +4.0
Post by: Seriously? on October 07, 2016, 02:15:36 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/6) Trump +2.6%
Trump: 46.2% (-0.4)
Clinton: 43.6% (+1.0)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/6 - Trump +2.6
Post by: Smeulders on October 07, 2016, 03:05:28 am
Seriously? Can you check the dates on the results? You have 2 "through 10/5"'s in a row. Your results for the first 10/5 (Clinton 42.6, Trump 46.6) also differs from the one on the "LA Times Poll dashboard", there it says C:42.9, T:46.5 "as of 5 October", which coincides with your "through 10/4" number.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/6 - Trump +2.6
Post by: michelle on October 07, 2016, 10:24:36 am
10/6 Clinton +2
Clinton 47% (+5)
Trump 45% (-2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/6 - Trump +2.6
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 07, 2016, 10:45:32 am
10/6 Clinton +2
Clinton 47% (+5)
Trump 45% (-2)

Whoa, even LATimes poll let Trump down today


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/6 - Trump +2.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 08, 2016, 02:13:26 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/7) Trump +3.1%
Trump: 46.1% (-0.1)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/6 - Trump +2.6
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 08, 2016, 02:28:11 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/7) Trump +3.1%
Trump: 46.1% (-0.1)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6)

Mr Seriously hoping and grasping for anything positive about trump.
I almost feel sorry for him.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/6 - Trump +2.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 08, 2016, 08:45:30 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/7) Trump +3.1%
Trump: 46.1% (-0.1)
Clinton: 43.0% (-0.6)

Mr Seriously hoping and grasping for anything positive about trump.
I almost feel sorry for him.
Yeah, because I haven't posted the results of this thread even when Trump was down in it or anything. You're the one who is grasping at straws here.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/7 - Trump +3.1
Post by: michelle on October 08, 2016, 12:56:25 pm
10/7 Trump +6
Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-7)

Trump's numbers seem more stable, while Clinton's keep jumping around. It's probably a good sign for Trump, but there's still a month until the election and the most recent Trump controversy hasn't affected these numbers yet. I'm not sure what to expect, but I'm sure it will be interesting.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/7 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Ebsy on October 08, 2016, 01:00:14 pm
10/7 Trump +6
Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-7)

Trump's numbers seem more stable, while Clinton's keep jumping around. It's probably a good sign for Trump, but there's still a month until the election and the most recent Trump controversy hasn't affected these numbers yet. I'm not sure what to expect, but I'm sure it will be interesting.
You are reading too much into this fake poll.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/7 - Trump +3.1
Post by: skoods on October 08, 2016, 01:30:17 pm
10/7 Trump +6
Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 40% (-7)

Trump's numbers seem more stable, while Clinton's keep jumping around. It's probably a good sign for Trump, but there's still a month until the election and the most recent Trump controversy hasn't affected these numbers yet. I'm not sure what to expect, but I'm sure it will be interesting.

Why are you still posting a poll that is clearly not even remotely close to being accurate?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/7 - Trump +3.1
Post by: ReapSow on October 08, 2016, 01:36:32 pm
This poll is like one of those morning motivational quotes for Trump supporters. As their candidate crashes and burns, they can look to this one tracking poll when they wake up  to reaffirm their pointless optimism and avoid accepting the reality that is Donald Trump's impending defeat.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/7 - Trump +3.1
Post by: john cage bubblegum on October 08, 2016, 01:40:42 pm
There was a time when this survey/poll was good for observing trends; you just had to realize it was about 5-6 points too friendly to Trump.  But lately it doesn't even seem to be good for looking at trends.  It's basically remained steady since mid-September despite a clear shift in the race since then.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/7 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 08, 2016, 01:52:14 pm
There was a time when this survey/poll was good for observing trends; you just had to realize it was about 5-6 points too friendly to Trump.  But lately it doesn't even seem to be good for looking at trends.  It's basically remained steady since mid-September despite a clear shift in the race since then.

Well it's 3000 of the same people. It's pretty clear at this point (1) that they've all basically made their minds up, and (2) they screwed up when they picked their sample of people.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/8 - Trump +2.2
Post by: cinyc on October 09, 2016, 02:20:40 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/8) Trump +2.2%
Trump: 45.5 (-0.6)
Clinton: 43.3 (+0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/8 - Trump +2.2
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 09, 2016, 11:38:04 am
The post-pussy surge has begun. BEAUTIFUL!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/8 - Trump +2.2
Post by: afleitch on October 09, 2016, 11:38:40 am
The post-pussy surge has begun. BEAUTIFUL!

Please don't make me think of a pussy surge :(


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/8 - Trump +2.2
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 09, 2016, 11:45:59 am
The post-pussy surge has begun. BEAUTIFUL!

Please don't make me think of a pussy surge :(

So that's what you call it when you have broken your dry spell...like when you have gone without for like 2, 3 or 4 months and then all the sudden you bring home one girl on Friday Night but she won't return your texts, and go on another great date Saturday afternoon and you really want to see her again but she is really busy and then you go on a date after work Tuesday and it goes really well and start see each other almost every night that week. :)  then you don't call it a "pussy surge" because you start going steady.. and you are not a Trump :)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/8 - Trump +2.2
Post by: ReapSow on October 09, 2016, 11:52:01 am
He's adorable:



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/8 - Trump +2.2
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 09, 2016, 12:00:08 pm
if they are tied in this poll, it would be about a +5/6 lead on the national level i guess.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/8 - Trump +2.2
Post by: Joe Republic on October 09, 2016, 12:05:05 pm
The post-pussy surge has begun. BEAUTIFUL!

Please don't make me think of a pussy surge :(

How do you feel about the pussy gush of Republicans turning against Trump?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/8 - Trump +2.2
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 09, 2016, 12:05:49 pm
The post-pussy surge has begun. BEAUTIFUL!

Please don't make me think of a pussy surge :(

How do you feel about the pussy gush of Republicans turning against Trump?

Like someone needs to wash up and change.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/8 - Trump +2.2
Post by: michelle on October 09, 2016, 01:11:51 pm
10/8
Clinton 44% (+4)
Trump 44% (-2)

Trump begins to collapse. Clinton's supporters' enthusiasm has shot up recently.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: cinyc on October 10, 2016, 02:21:35 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/9) Trump +3.1%
Trump: 45.8 (+0.3)
Clinton: 42.7 (-0.6)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Seriously? on October 10, 2016, 02:26:38 am
Apparently Americans are like the honey badger. They don't give a s**t about this lame "pussygate."


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 10, 2016, 04:05:22 am
Apparently Americans are like the honey badger. They don't give a s**t about this lame "pussygate."

More like this poll is a skunk in the backyard.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 10, 2016, 04:17:23 am
Apparently Americans are like the honey badger. They don't give a s**t about this lame "pussygate."

Your gonna be disappointed if you think this poll actually represents Americans.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: dspNY on October 10, 2016, 07:49:25 am
It's obvious this poll is complete junk. Not sure why the LA Times would ruin its reputation by continuing to publish it


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: BlueSwan on October 10, 2016, 08:46:02 am
It's obvious this poll is complete junk. Not sure why the LA Times would ruin its reputation by continuing to publish it
From a scientific point of view I hope they continue with the same methodology all the way through so that later we can better evaluate the merits/issues with this way of doing things.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 10, 2016, 08:49:10 am
It's obvious this poll is complete junk. Not sure why the LA Times would ruin its reputation by continuing to publish it

The poll has a pro-Trump bias of several points; even the LA Times has acknowledged this.  But the trend information is potentially useful.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Mallow on October 10, 2016, 09:01:32 am
It's obvious this poll is complete junk. Not sure why the LA Times would ruin its reputation by continuing to publish it

The poll has a pro-Trump bias of several points; even the LA Times has acknowledged this.  But the trend information is potentially useful.

As of last month I would have agreed with you. But over the past several weeks, this poll has not trended in a manner consistent with almost every other national poll (tracking or otherwise), so it's harder to justify that claim.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: michelle on October 10, 2016, 09:27:42 am
10/9
Trump 47% (+3)
Clinton 40% (-4)

As of last month I would have agreed with you. But over the past several weeks, this poll has not trended in a manner consistent with almost every other national poll (tracking or otherwise), so it's harder to justify that claim.

This is one of the problems I'm starting to have with this poll. But I won't stop doing this unless Clinton's up double digits and they still have Trump up or something like that.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 10, 2016, 09:54:39 am
10/9
Trump 47% (+3)
Clinton 40% (-4)

As of last month I would have agreed with you. But over the past several weeks, this poll has not trended in a manner consistent with almost every other national poll (tracking or otherwise), so it's harder to justify that claim.

This is one of the problems I'm starting to have with this poll. But I won't stop doing this unless Clinton's up double digits and they still have Trump up or something like that.

They ask the same people over and over again. That's the major flaw. They asked who they voted for in 2012 and divided the samples so that 26% of Obama voters and 24% of Romney voters make up the survey. (which closely matches 52-47% vote share between Obama and Romney).

The problem about this is that some of those Obama voters were Romney voters. There is significant evidence that some people lie or cannot remember who they voted for because of "I voted for a winner" social desirability bias. So it's very likely that the samples consist of more Republicans and Republican-leaning independents than the actual Republican portion of the national voting population.

All statisticians and polling aggregators agree that reasonable and scientific polls are generated randomly every time instead of contacting the same people over and over. Even Rasmussen uses random samples (despite not using cell phones, which underestimates Democratic margin) and even they have Hillary up.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Edu on October 10, 2016, 03:07:45 pm
Haha, is Seriously? choosing this poll as the hill to die on?

That's even more embarrasing than his cringeworthy run in 2012


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Panda Express on October 11, 2016, 08:18:47 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/10) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.3 (-0.5)
Clinton: 43.3 (+0.6)


Vox Populi Modified Numbers Clinton +6.0%

Trump: 41.3
Clinton 47.3


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 11, 2016, 08:34:14 am
I think this poll may have outlived its usefulness.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 11, 2016, 09:55:37 am
nah, it's useful....if that set of hardcore-trumpists are crawling to ...tied...than it's trumperdammerung.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 11, 2016, 10:55:36 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/10) Trump +2.0%
Trump: 45.3 (-0.5)
Clinton: 43.3 (+0.6)


Vox Populi Modified Numbers Clinton +6.0%

Trump: 41.3
Clinton 47.3


Beautiful poll! Trump drops faster than a moviegoer's IQ when he is watching a Steven Seagal flick.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Seriously? on October 12, 2016, 02:10:26 am
Haha, is Seriously? choosing this poll as the hill to die on?

That's even more embarrasing embarrassing than his cringeworthy cringe-worthy run in 2012
Yeah, because I've posted just about every tracker result on here without comment when Trump was up or down, whether it was NOLA, UPI, Rasmussen, Reuters or this one.

There, I fixed your poor attempt at spelling and grammar as well.

You red and red-off color orange and green avatars (and those colorblind blue ones that think blue=red) are unhinged at this point. Such obnoxious little trolls.



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/10 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Seriously? on October 12, 2016, 02:12:47 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/11) Clinton +0.4%
Clinton: 44.4% (+1.1)
Trump: 44.0% (-1.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/10 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Lok on October 12, 2016, 02:13:38 am
Haha, is Seriously? choosing this poll as the hill to die on?

That's even more embarrasing embarrassing than his cringeworthy cringe-worthy run in 2012
Yeah, because I've posted just about every tracker result on here without comment when Trump was up or down, whether it was NOLA, UPI, Rasmussen, Reuters or this one.

There, I fixed your poor attempt at spelling and grammar as well.

You red and red-off color orange and green avatars (and those colorblind blue ones that think blue=red) are unhinged at this point. Such obnoxious little trolls.


This is probably the lowest thing someone has said/done since the impersonation event.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/10 - Trump +2.0
Post by: Ronnie on October 12, 2016, 02:24:47 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/11) Clinton +0.4%
Clinton: 44.4% (+1.1)
Trump: 44.0% (-1.3)

Wow!  If Clinton is leading in this poll, then Trump must really be in trouble.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 12, 2016, 03:36:41 am
Great news! Trump is getting squeezed like a sex doll by a horny teenager.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/10 - Trump +2.0
Post by: BlueSwan on October 12, 2016, 03:47:16 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/11) Clinton +0.4%
Clinton: 44.4% (+1.1)
Trump: 44.0% (-1.3)
The last holdout falls!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Lean Branson on October 12, 2016, 03:57:43 am
Has anyone else noticed that Seriously's mental state seems to track with his candidate's?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 12, 2016, 05:06:53 am
WOW! Looks like Trump is collapsing. Tremendous!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: michelle on October 12, 2016, 05:27:58 am
10/11 Clinton +8
Clinton 48% (+2)
Trump 40% (-4)

I knew they would come back.

Apparently Americans are like the honey badger. They don't give a s**t about this lame "pussygate."

Never stop being you, Seriously?.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 12, 2016, 05:53:40 am
regarding the baseline....this must be +6....


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/9 - Trump +3.1
Post by: Gustaf on October 12, 2016, 07:33:19 am
Haha, is Seriously? choosing this poll as the hill to die on?

That's even more embarrasing embarrassing than his cringeworthy cringe-worthy run in 2012
Yeah, because I've posted just about every tracker result on here without comment when Trump was up or down, whether it was NOLA, UPI, Rasmussen, Reuters or this one.

There, I fixed your poor attempt at spelling and grammar as well.

You red and red-off color orange and green avatars (and those colorblind blue ones that think blue=red) are unhinged at this point. Such obnoxious little trolls.



You corrected the grammar of a person whose native language isn't English? What a big man you are.

Any updates on those correct 2014 posts of yours that you previously referred to? We're all still waiting.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Seriously? on October 12, 2016, 08:23:42 am
Has anyone else noticed that Seriously's mental state seems to track with his candidate's?
Seriously? I am the one getting personally attacked here with your glee. Why? Because I am one of the few people that stands up to you red avatars.

I posted the result, without comment and responded to a ridiculous accusation that somehow I only homer when Trump is ahead in a poll, which I don't.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: The love that set me free on October 12, 2016, 08:34:04 am
The thing that pissed me off about this "poll" is that TCP puts it in their average, even though it's not really even a poll by most in the industry's standards.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Gustaf on October 12, 2016, 08:36:18 am
Has anyone else noticed that Seriously's mental state seems to track with his candidate's?
Seriously? I am the one getting personally attacked here with your glee. Why? Because I am one of the few people that stands up to you red avatars.

I posted the result, without comment and responded to a ridiculous accusation that somehow I only homer when Trump is ahead in a poll, which I don't.

You don't stand up for anything. I'm sorry this isn't a safe space for mentally impaired racists like yourself but stop whining about it.

If you want to "stand up" to us then why don't you start by explaining how it's relevant that a non-native speaker makes a spelling error and show us some of those 2014 posts of yours that you bragged about?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: HokeyDood on October 12, 2016, 08:40:04 am
YES!  The Deluge!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Seriously? on October 12, 2016, 08:50:01 am
Has anyone else noticed that Seriously's mental state seems to track with his candidate's?
Seriously? I am the one getting personally attacked here with your glee. Why? Because I am one of the few people that stands up to you red avatars.

I posted the result, without comment and responded to a ridiculous accusation that somehow I only homer when Trump is ahead in a poll, which I don't.

You don't stand up for anything. I'm sorry this isn't a safe space for mentally impaired racists like yourself but stop whining about it.

If you want to "stand up" to us then why don't you start by explaining how it's relevant that a non-native speaker makes a spelling error and show us some of those 2014 posts of yours that you bragged about?
I don't have to justify myself to you or any other of you nasty red avatars. Nor I do apologize for giving it back to someone who is NOT nice to me to begin with.

Don't expect me to not respond to a blatant personal attack. I obviously do not need a safe space if I am willing to engage people here.

Calling me "mentally impaired" and "racist" because I don't agree with your personal political views is taking it way too far, Moderator.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Gustaf on October 12, 2016, 09:02:08 am
Has anyone else noticed that Seriously's mental state seems to track with his candidate's?
Seriously? I am the one getting personally attacked here with your glee. Why? Because I am one of the few people that stands up to you red avatars.

I posted the result, without comment and responded to a ridiculous accusation that somehow I only homer when Trump is ahead in a poll, which I don't.

You don't stand up for anything. I'm sorry this isn't a safe space for mentally impaired racists like yourself but stop whining about it.

If you want to "stand up" to us then why don't you start by explaining how it's relevant that a non-native speaker makes a spelling error and show us some of those 2014 posts of yours that you bragged about?
I don't have to justify myself to you or any other of you nasty red avatars. Nor I do apologize for giving it back to someone who is NOT nice to me to begin with.

Don't expect me to not respond to a blatant personal attack. I obviously do not need a safe space if I am willing to engage people here.

Calling me "mentally impaired" and "racist" because I don't agree with your personal political views is taking it way too far, Moderator.

You think it is inappropriate for a moderator to call someone racist but it's appropriate for a president to say he likes to grab women by the p**y?

Because I'm just telling it how it is. If you wanna impose your PC censorship on me and demand a safe space maybe you should find another forum where you can be coddled.

Now, you still didn't say anything about those 2014 posts of yours. You said they would prove that you were right about the elections that year and prove what a great analyst you are. So where are they?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: ReapSow on October 12, 2016, 09:37:19 am
What poll will Trump tweet now? The latest West Virginia poll? Donald Plump is done!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on October 12, 2016, 09:45:38 am
What poll will Trump tweet now? The latest West Virginia poll? Donald Plump is done!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 12, 2016, 10:26:32 am
What poll will Trump tweet now? The latest West Virginia poll? Donald Plump is done!

GRAVIS-TEXAS: Trump +1 (Nov. 4-5)

Thank you Texas! Great honor! #MAGA


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: HokeyDood on October 12, 2016, 11:39:59 am
What poll will Trump tweet now? The latest West Virginia poll? Donald Plump is done!

GRAVIS-TEXAS: Trump +1 (Nov. 4-5)

Thank you Texas! Great honor! #MAGA

WOWIE!  Outstanding polls all around this Wednesday!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Gass3268 on October 12, 2016, 11:54:38 am
Exhibit A why this poll is junk:

One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Ozymandias on October 12, 2016, 11:56:07 am
Exhibit A why this poll is junk:

One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=1)

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
If the USC/LAT poll were weighted normally, Clinton lead. Instead, a 19 year old black Trump voter is weighted 30x

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/786248405227941888


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Gass3268 on October 12, 2016, 11:58:59 am
Exhibit A why this poll is junk:

One 19-Year-Old Illinois Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages (http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html?_r=1)

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC
If the USC/LAT poll were weighted normally, Clinton lead. Instead, a 19 year old black Trump voter is weighted 30x

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/786248405227941888

Quote
Nate Cohn
Verified account
‏@Nate_Cohn
Why did Clinton surge in the LAT/USC poll today? One 19 year old black Trump supporter dropped out of the sample

This poll is trash!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Sorenroy on October 12, 2016, 08:40:16 pm
Has anyone else noticed that Seriously's mental state seems to track with his candidate's?

Seriously? I am the one getting personally attacked here with your glee. Why? Because I am one of the few people that stands up to you red avatars.

I posted the result, without comment and responded to a ridiculous accusation that somehow I only homer when Trump is ahead in a poll, which I don't.

Apparently Americans are like the honey badger. They don't give a s**t about this lame "pussygate."

Also, if we're correcting grammar, what in the world does "I only homer when Trump is ahead" mean anyway?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Seriously? on October 13, 2016, 02:13:53 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/12) Trump +0.1%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 44.2% (-0.2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 13, 2016, 02:21:04 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/12) Trump +0.1%
Trump: 44.3% (+0.3)
Clinton: 44.2% (-0.2)


The Return of the Illinois Black Guy.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: BlueSwan on October 13, 2016, 02:21:17 am
I guess the 19 year old black man from Illinois is back in the sample?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/11 - Clinton +0.4
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on October 13, 2016, 08:20:15 am
No, if he went back in, it would have swung to Trump by several points.  This just looks like fluctuation.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/12 - Trump +0.1
Post by: michelle on October 13, 2016, 05:46:54 pm
It doesn't look like that Illinois guy is in the sample anymore, so I'll continue with the formula. But if he returns, I'll stop.

10/13 Trump +3
Trump 46% (+6)
Clinton 43% (-5)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/13 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 14, 2016, 07:23:51 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/13) Hillary over the Donald +0.3%
Trump: 43.9% (-0.4)
Clinton: 44.2% (+0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/13 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 14, 2016, 02:13:49 pm
If this dump shows them tied, Clinton has it in the bag.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/13 - Clinton +0.3
Post by: michelle on October 14, 2016, 02:22:05 pm
10/13 Clinton +2
Clinton 45% (+2)
Trump 43% (-3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/14 - Trump +0.1
Post by: cinyc on October 15, 2016, 02:15:16 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/14): Trump +0.1
Trump: 44.2% (+0.3)
Clinton: 44.1% (-0.1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/14 - Trump +0.1
Post by: michelle on October 15, 2016, 06:05:36 pm
10/14 Trump +3
Trump 46% (+3)
Clinton 43% (-2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/14 - Trump +0.1
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 15, 2016, 08:05:31 pm
CNN's Smerconish (I hope I spelled that right) was nothing this morning that this poll has a history of being right and that it could prove to be the real winner in this election


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/14 - Trump +0.1
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on October 15, 2016, 09:43:16 pm
Doesn't matter if the Illinois black guy is in the sample or not. Any survey where people are regularly weighted up by huge amounts is not going to be reliable at all. If you have so many weighting categories that that is happening, you're a terrible polling firm. Typically anything over a weight of 4 would mean a heavily skewed sample. Anything over 10 would be unacceptable.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/14 - Trump +0.1
Post by: heatcharger on October 15, 2016, 09:48:12 pm
CNN's Smerconish (I hope I spelled that right) was nothing this morning that this poll has a history of being right and that it could prove to be the real winner in this election

Smerconish is dumb because this poll has never existed until this year. What they do is they weight their results to match previous election results, which is an extremely dubious practice because real Romney voters may not say they voted for him or maybe even say they voted for Obama, which means they overweight Romney voters and underweight real Obama voters.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/14 - Trump +0.1
Post by: Gass3268 on October 15, 2016, 10:43:30 pm
CNN's Smerconish (I hope I spelled that right) was nothing this morning that this poll has a history of being right and that it could prove to be the real winner in this election

Smerconish is dumb because this poll has never existed until this year. What they do is they weight their results to match previous election results, which is an extremely dubious practice because real Romney voters may not say they voted for him or maybe even say they voted for Obama, which means they overweight Romney voters and underweight real Obama voters.

It was built with help by the RAND people, but the actual RAND poll this year currently has Clinton +10.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/14 - Trump +0.1
Post by: Seriously? on October 16, 2016, 02:18:20 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/15) Trump +0.6%
Trump: 44.5% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.9% (-0.2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/15 - Trump +0.6
Post by: michelle on October 16, 2016, 06:05:01 pm
10/15 Trump +3
Trump 46% (=)
Clinton 43% (=)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/15 - Trump +0.6
Post by: voter1993 on October 16, 2016, 07:04:30 pm
10/15 Trump +3
Trump 46% (=)
Clinton 43% (=)

What does this mean? I thought poll has trump up 1 point not 3?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/15 - Trump +0.6
Post by: cinyc on October 16, 2016, 07:12:24 pm
10/15 Trump +3
Trump 46% (=)
Clinton 43% (=)

What does this mean? I thought poll has trump up 1 point not 3?

Those are the imputed numbers for today's sample.  It is a 7-day rolling average.  Left has been computing the numbers that have been added today to make the 7-day poll what it is.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/16 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Seriously? on October 17, 2016, 02:17:52 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/16) Trump +1.1%
Trump: 44.8% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.7% (-0.2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/15 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 17, 2016, 08:53:08 am
Finally, StatesPoll can quote one poll where his hero Mr. Drumpf is in the lead again.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/16 - Trump +1.1
Post by: michelle on October 17, 2016, 06:18:10 pm
10/16 Trump +6
Trump 47%
Clinton 41%

I updated the formula because I felt it was still too susceptible to days rolling off the average.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/16 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Seriously? on October 18, 2016, 02:19:11 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/17) Trump +1.6%
Trump: 44.9% (+0.1)
Clinton: 43.3% (-0.4)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/17 - Trump +1.6
Post by: michelle on October 18, 2016, 05:06:21 pm
10/17 Trump +1
Trump 44% (-3)
Clinton 43% (+2)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/18 - Trump +0.2
Post by: Seriously? on October 19, 2016, 02:14:10 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/18) Trump +0.2%
Trump: 44.1% (-0.8)
Clinton: 43.9% (+0.6)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/17 - Trump +1.6
Post by: Lolasknives on October 19, 2016, 02:26:18 am
Ummm can this pile of trash flip Hil already? Then we can watch the little boys in the red caps howl as their last shred of hope gets torn away.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/18 - Trump +0.2
Post by: michelle on October 19, 2016, 04:08:27 pm
10/18 Clinton +11
Clinton 49% (+6)
Trump 38% (-6)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/18 - Trump +0.2
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 19, 2016, 04:13:04 pm
10/18 Clinton +11
Clinton 49% (+6)
Trump 38% (-6)

Source? Their website shows a near tie
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/18 - Trump +0.2
Post by: cinyc on October 19, 2016, 04:14:13 pm
10/18 Clinton +11
Clinton 49% (+6)
Trump 38% (-6)

Source? Their website shows a near tie
http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/



Again, Left's numbers are for the one-day sample added today to the total 7-day sample reported by the L.A. Times.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/18 - Trump +0.2
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 19, 2016, 04:19:00 pm
Quote
Again, Left's numbers are for the one-day sample added today to the total 7-day sample reported by the L.A. Times.

Got ya, thanks


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/18 - Trump +0.2
Post by: Likely Voter on October 19, 2016, 07:16:36 pm
The LA Times is reporting on how their own poll can be reweighted...
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-third-presidential-here-s-how-to-tweak-the-usc-la-times-1476910462-htmlstory.html


Quote
Ernie Tedeschi, an economist and former Treasury Department official who is adept at data analysis...found that if he took the poll's data and weighted it differently, what had been a tie between Trump and Clinton suddenly became a Clinton lead. Indeed, his version has the poll showing her in the lead almost the entire summer and fall.
....
The main difference between the original weighing and what Tedeschi did is that he dropped some weights the USC pollsters used, most notably their decision to weight the sample to match people's reports of whether they voted in 2012

Here is the details
https://sites.google.com/site/latuscrw/

Basically his version mirrors the RCP avg.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 20, 2016, 02:47:29 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/19) Trump +0.6%
Trump: 44.4% (+0.3)
Clinton: 43.8% (-0.1)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: michelle on October 20, 2016, 09:33:41 pm
10/19 Trump +3
Trump 46% (+8)
Clinton 43% (-6)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/19 - Trump +0.6
Post by: Seriously? on October 21, 2016, 02:11:39 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/20) Trump +0.7%
Trump: 44.5% (+0.1)
Clinton: 43.8% (--)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/21 - Trump +0.2
Post by: Seriously? on October 22, 2016, 02:14:59 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/21) Trump +0.2%
Trump: 44.3% (-0.2)
Clinton: 44.1% (+0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/21 - Trump +0.2
Post by: michelle on October 22, 2016, 06:17:31 pm
10/21 Clinton +1
Clinton 45% (+1)
Trump 44% (=)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/22 - Trump +0.3
Post by: Seriously? on October 23, 2016, 02:12:15 am
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 10/22) Trump +0.3%
Trump: 44.4% (+0.1)
Clinton: 44.1% (--)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/21 - Trump +0.2
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 23, 2016, 06:22:29 am
FWIW, I customized pollster.com's chart where I threw out all the tracking polls.
The end result is Clinton's lead jumping from 7.1 points to 9.9.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/22 - Trump +0.3
Post by: ucscgaldamez1 on October 24, 2016, 02:28:40 am
Clinton is now ahead 45.1-43.8%


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Ebsy on October 24, 2016, 02:53:25 am
Hell has frozen over.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 24, 2016, 07:59:46 am
Goodbye Trump's Last Stand.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Ye Olde Europe on October 24, 2016, 08:26:29 am
Clinton leads in the L.A. Times poll???

Trump is so very screwed...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Arch on October 24, 2016, 08:32:54 am


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Ronnie on October 24, 2016, 08:34:53 am
Clinton actually did lead in this poll once before, but not by more than a fraction of a point, iirc.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Mallow on October 24, 2016, 09:48:21 am
Clinton actually did lead in this poll once before, but not by more than a fraction of a point, iirc.

As far as I could tell, she has led by more than her current 1.3 points in this tracker at least three times:
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/8)
Clinton: 45.1 (+0.1%)
Trump: 43.4 (-0.4%)

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/10)
Clinton: 44.8 (-0.1%)
Trump: 43.3 (-0.2%)

USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 8/23) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton: 45.3% (+1.1%)
Trump: 43.2% (-0.8%)



That's 1.7, 1.5, and 2.1. She also led by 1.1 in September:
USC/LA Times national tracking poll (through 9/7) Clinton +1.1%
Clinton: 44.5% (+0.4)
Trump: 43.4% (-0.4)

It will show as Clinton +2 due to rounding.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Interlocutor on October 25, 2016, 03:45:58 am
October 25
Clinton: 45% (-0.1)
Trump: 44.1% (+0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 25, 2016, 05:13:28 am
LOL, Seriously stopped posting this crappy poll the moment Hillary took the lead.
What a wuss.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Mallow on October 25, 2016, 08:00:52 am
Here's the link:
http://www.latimes.com/politics/

Clinton leads by 0.9% today, 45.0/44.1

Looks like I missed Clinton's biggest lead back in August. August 12: Clinton +4.7 (46.3/41.6)

That being said, the numbers from mid-August on the site don't match up with Seriously's numbers from earlier in this thread. Did they change their formula?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Gustaf on October 25, 2016, 09:00:41 am
Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/24 - Clinton +0.9
Post by: cinyc on October 25, 2016, 12:20:22 pm
Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.

I check the numbers for myself practically every day someone has posted them.  They are accurate at the time they were posted.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: SirMuxALot on October 25, 2016, 03:21:03 pm
Desperate L.A. Times going back and changing their old numbers to avoid egg on their face on election day!  Sad!

Before yet another myth on this board becomes accepted truth, can anyone point to specific dates that don't match?

I spot checked the mid-August dates with Clinton's biggest lead and the latimes.com graph still matches exactly the Seriously? posts.  Take care not to mis-read the other poster who was reverse-engineering some single day numbers as the supposed tracking numbers.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Mallow on October 25, 2016, 04:36:52 pm
Desperate L.A. Times going back and changing their old numbers to avoid egg on their face on election day!  Sad!

Before yet another myth on this board becomes accepted truth, can anyone point to specific dates that don't match?

I spot checked the mid-August dates with Clinton's biggest lead and the latimes.com graph still matches exactly the Seriously? posts.  Take care not to mis-read the other poster who was reverse-engineering some single day numbers as the supposed tracking numbers.

See my replies on the previous page (replies numbered 643 and 646). Unless I'm misreading something (very possible), none of the four dates I quote have an apparent corollary on the LA Times site. Five examples are...
Date___LA Times___Seriously?
8/8____45.0/43.8___45.1/43.4
8/10___44.9/43.5___44.8/43.3
8/14___46.3/41.6___45.6/42.0
8/23___44.2/44.0___45.3/43.2
9/7____44.1/43.8___44.5/43.4

Most of the margins are similar, but some show a decent discrepancy (8/14: Clinton +4.7 vs. +3.6; 8/23: Clinton +0.2 vs. +1.9).

Is it possible the numbers on the LA Times site are daily and not 7-day averages, and Seriously? is calculating the 7-day averages manually? Or is the discrepancy caused by something else (change in methodology? Different source?). I am not suggesting Seriously? made up numbers by any means, I just want to know why there's an apparent discrepancy.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/24 - Clinton +0.9
Post by: Ebsy on October 25, 2016, 04:38:35 pm
Yeah, Seriously was posting the numbers as they appeared at the time. LA Times must be revising them to avoid humiliation.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/24 - Clinton +0.9
Post by: cinyc on October 25, 2016, 04:47:40 pm
The Seriously? numbers you cited are exactly what is currently reported for those dates on USC's poll website.  Nothing is changed:

http://cesrusc.org/election/

What website are you looking at for LA Times results?  Your dates seem to be for the polling date that is one day before what is reported on the USC website.  There must be difference in what your site and USC is reporting as the poll date.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/24 - Clinton +0.9
Post by: The Other Castro on October 25, 2016, 04:53:15 pm
There is no discrepancy. Mallow's example numbers are all from one day earlier than their Seriously counterpart. The confusion in Mallow's post is that LAT publishes, for example, its 10/17-10/23 on 10/24. The numbers on the site have not been changed.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/24 - Clinton +0.9
Post by: Mallow on October 25, 2016, 04:53:53 pm
The Seriously? numbers you cited are exactly what is currently reported for those dates on USC's poll website.  Nothing is changed:

http://cesrusc.org/election/

What website are you looking at for LA Times results?  Your dates seem to be for the polling date that is one day before what is reported on the USC website.

Odd that I didn't see that. I swear I checked "one day off" in both directions and it didn't match before, but you're right, the numbers I posted are "one day off". It's because I'm using this source:
http://www.latimes.com/politics/

That source seems to label the days one day later than your source. At least it makes sense now. Thanks for the clarification!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/24 - Clinton +0.9
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 26, 2016, 04:49:28 am
10/25:

Trump - 45.3
Clinton - 44.2


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on October 26, 2016, 09:05:24 am
That is a big jump.  Did the Illinois guy get back in?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 26, 2016, 09:09:53 am
That is a big jump.  Did the Illinois guy get back in?
Not yeat, as I understood.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 26, 2016, 09:19:16 am

On further inspection, I see numbers stable but Trump surging amongst the elderly.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: nirvanayoda on October 26, 2016, 09:25:29 am

A strong Clinton day probably fell off along with a decent Trump day rolling on.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: chrisras on October 26, 2016, 10:01:14 am
Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 26, 2016, 10:02:15 am
Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?
Trump's African American

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/13/upshot/how-one-19-year-old-illinois-man-is-distorting-national-polling-averages.html


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 26, 2016, 10:02:43 am
Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?
The one weird kid in class who wears a sweater or tie every day.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/26 - Trump +0.7
Post by: cinyc on October 27, 2016, 02:47:09 am
10/26: Trump +0.7
Trump - 45.2 (-0.1)
Clinton - 44.5 (+0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Beef on October 27, 2016, 12:53:00 pm
Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?

I thought he moved to Colorado.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Seriously? on October 27, 2016, 01:19:54 pm
Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.
And you effen realize why I gave up on you complete bunch of ungrateful losers. Any intimation that I cheated here is an absolute joke. You should be ashamed of yourself.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: Buh her emails! on October 27, 2016, 01:33:30 pm
Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.
And you effen realize why I gave up on you complete bunch of ungrateful losers. Any intimation that I cheated here is an absolute joke. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Lol


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 27, 2016, 02:37:41 pm
Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.

And you effen realize why I gave up on you complete bunch of ungrateful losers. Any intimation that I cheated here is an absolute joke. You should be ashamed of yourself.

Lol

Ohhhh.
See what you guys did ? ..... you went and did it ..... Seriously is pissed-off now & you are feeling his wrath.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: SirMuxALot on October 27, 2016, 02:52:20 pm
And you effen realize why I gave up on you complete bunch of ungrateful losers.

I'm finding I agree with this.  Used to enjoy this place back in 2004, there was always a lot of heat in the general forums, but lots of topical discussions in the other sub-forums.

It's different here now.  The balance is so out of whack here compared to how it used to be.  It's become yet another "+1" echo chamber where the red avatars can convince themselves that 95% of the country agrees with them, because hey, look at all those red responses in every thread!  So few blues!  Must be an accurate picture of the country as a whole!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: HokeyDood on October 27, 2016, 02:55:22 pm
Or Seriously? faked the poll numbers he posted. Wouldn't be shocking tbh.
And you effen realize why I gave up on you complete bunch of ungrateful losers. Any intimation that I cheated here is an absolute joke. You should be ashamed of yourself.


(Image Link)

It's a good brand.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/23 - Clinton +1.3
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 27, 2016, 03:05:25 pm
And you effen realize why I gave up on you complete bunch of ungrateful losers.

I'm finding I agree with this.  Used to enjoy this place back in 2004, there was always a lot of heat in the general forums, but lots of topical discussions in the other sub-forums.

It's different here now.  The balance is so out of whack here compared to how it used to be.  It's become yet another "+1" echo chamber where the red avatars can convince themselves that 95% of the country agrees with them, because hey, look at all those red responses in every thread!  So few blues!  Must be an accurate picture of the country as a whole!

more like an accurate picture of the educated/hyper-interested people in the times of trump. it's no coincidence that about two thirds of the republicans over here reject trump too.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/26 - Trump +0.7
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 28, 2016, 02:49:27 am
10/27:
Trump - 45.8
Clinton - 44.1
translates to Trump + 2 on poll averages


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/26 - Trump +0.7
Post by: Lok on October 28, 2016, 02:56:50 am
Why do we still track this poll, it's obvious horse sh*t.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/26 - Trump +0.7
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 28, 2016, 03:08:38 am
Honestly if the 1% chance that this poll is correct verifies I am going to both laugh and cry


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/28 - Trump +2.4
Post by: cinyc on October 29, 2016, 02:22:05 am
10/28: Trump +2.4
Trump 46.2% (+0.4)
Clinton 43.8% (-0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 29, 2016, 02:46:02 am
Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?

I thought he moved to Colorado.

(Image Link)

Lol, I think he's back now.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/25 - Trump +1.1
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 29, 2016, 04:52:50 am
Who is this black guy in Illinois you keep talking bout?

I thought he moved to Colorado.

(Image Link)

Lol, I think he's back now.
MLKKK lol


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/28 - Trump +2.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 06:18:11 am
No, he is not yet.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/29 - Trump +1.9
Post by: cinyc on October 30, 2016, 02:15:52 am
10/29: Trump +1.9
Trump 46.0% (-0.2)
Clinton 44.1% (+0.3)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/29 - Trump +1.9
Post by: Crumpets on October 30, 2016, 02:20:17 am
10/29: Trump +1.9
Trump 46.0% (-0.2)
Clinton 44.1% (+0.3)

The Comey bump begins!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/29 - Trump +1.9
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 31, 2016, 12:51:47 am
10/29: Trump +1.9
Trump 46.0% (-0.2)
Clinton 44.1% (+0.3)

The Comey bump begins!
lol


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/29 - Trump +1.9
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on October 31, 2016, 09:37:02 am
Are they not updating it today?  538 doesn't have it either.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: ZuWo on October 31, 2016, 09:38:34 am
They just put out the latest figures.

10/30: Trump +3.4
Trump 46.6% (+0.6)
Clinton 43.2% (-0.9)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Ljube on October 31, 2016, 12:26:32 pm
Bye Killary!



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Luminary Lee on October 31, 2016, 12:37:52 pm
My Trump surge.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: jaichind on October 31, 2016, 12:42:32 pm
Something is wierd here

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Seems to report 46.4-43.2

but

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

reports 46.0-44.1

Both are for 10/30

Is the former the projection and later the raw data ?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: cinyc on October 31, 2016, 01:18:09 pm
Something is wierd here

http://cesrusc.org/election/

Seems to report 46.4-43.2

but

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

reports 46.0-44.1

Both are for 10/30

Is the former the projection and later the raw data ?

The L.A. Times' numbers are one day behind.  The 10/30 sample on the L.A. Times website is the 10/29 sample on the USC website.  I don't think the L.A. Times has updated its graphics with today's numbers.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2016, 05:27:57 am
No real change today:

Trump: +0.3
Hillary: +0.1

Trump leads 47-43.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2016, 06:30:08 am
What is bizarre about this poll it shows a large lead for Trump among non-BA education voters but at the same time a large Clinton lead for those with income below 35K.  It seems the class divide this implies is that Trump carrying by huge margins HS/Some college voters that ended up in Blue collar/vendor/small business work.  The welfare claimant class is solidly behind Clinton and highly educated working in lower paying government/social roles are have huge margins for Clinton.  Highly educated high income bloc are for Trump overall.

So one way to read this poll if we are to believe it is that any one involved in distribution or receiving income from the government are for Clinton by huge margins with the rest for Trump by large margins.  I guess this sort of reading is another variation of the Romeny 47% comment.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: Ljube on November 01, 2016, 07:23:41 am
What is bizarre about this poll it shows a large lead for Trump among non-BA education voters but at the same time a large Clinton lead for those with income below 35K.  It seems the class divide this implies is that Trump carrying by huge margins HS/Some college voters that ended up in Blue collar/vendor/small business work.  The welfare claimant class is solidly behind Clinton and highly educated working in lower paying government/social roles are have huge margins for Clinton.  Highly educated high income bloc are for Trump overall.

So one way to read this poll if we are to believe it is that any one involved in distribution or receiving income from the government are for Clinton by huge margins with the rest for Trump by large margins.  I guess this sort of reading is another variation of the Romeny 47% comment.

What you described here is the reality.

It's a matter of turnout now.

Trump's supporters are a smaller group, but a more motivated one.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/30 - Trump +3.4
Post by: AmericanNation on November 01, 2016, 12:04:17 pm
What is bizarre about this poll it shows a large lead for Trump among non-BA education voters but at the same time a large Clinton lead for those with income below 35K.  It seems the class divide this implies is that Trump carrying by huge margins HS/Some college voters that ended up in Blue collar/vendor/small business work.  The welfare claimant class is solidly behind Clinton and highly educated working in lower paying government/social roles are have huge margins for Clinton.  Highly educated high income bloc are for Trump overall.

So one way to read this poll if we are to believe it is that any one involved in distribution or receiving income from the government are for Clinton by huge margins with the rest for Trump by large margins.  I guess this sort of reading is another variation of the Romeny 47% comment.
What you described here is the reality.
It's a matter of turnout now.
Trump's supporters are a smaller group, but a more motivated one.
They are smaller until they aren't (among likely voters anyway).


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/31 - Trump +3.6
Post by: Ebsy on November 01, 2016, 12:45:34 pm
This thread should be preserved for study by future generations.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/31 - Trump +3.6
Post by: TC 25 on November 01, 2016, 12:55:54 pm
Trump has the momentum.  Can he take it over the top in the next 7 days? That's the big question right now.

The nonsense of a Clinton 350-400 EV landslide has long passed.   I have a hard time seeing Clinton get to 300 in any scenario.

A Trump wave the next seven days could give him 300-325 EVs.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/31 - Trump +3.6
Post by: Dutch Conservative on November 02, 2016, 03:28:20 am
1/11: Trump +5.4

Trump: 47.8 (+0.9)
Clinton: 42.4 (- 0.9)

Trumps numbers are within the >95% confidence zone.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/31 - Trump +3.6
Post by: The Other Castro on November 02, 2016, 05:34:08 am
No matter what happens, one group of pollsters is going to feel pretty stupid in about a week.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/31 - Trump +3.6
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 02, 2016, 05:39:29 am
No matter what happens, one group of pollsters is going to feel pretty stupid in about a week.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 10/31 - Trump +3.6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 05:55:12 am
I like the trend line.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/1 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on November 03, 2016, 06:43:56 am
Donald 47.5
Hillary 42.5

So T+5 today.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/1 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Arch on November 03, 2016, 08:36:26 am

The accuracy of this poll will go down in history as absolutely horrible.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/1 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 03, 2016, 08:38:32 am
If that obscure individual is back on Trump's side, is the 6 point inaccuracy still the conclusion? Or has the game changed?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/1 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 03, 2016, 09:02:38 am
If that obscure individual is back on Trump's side, is the 6 point inaccuracy still the conclusion? Or has the game changed?

He is not. When he is, it gives like 20% swing among Blacks towards Trump, and MOE of Blacks becomes huge. It seems not being a case right now.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/3 - Trump +3.5
Post by: cinyc on November 04, 2016, 02:21:45 am
11/3: Trump +3.5
Trump 46.9 (-0.6)
Clinton 43.4 (+0.9)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/3 - Trump +3.5
Post by: peterthlee on November 04, 2016, 02:26:55 am
For this thread, I'm not looking for the garbage numbers; though the trend line could be a good indicator of what's happening in the Election Cycle.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/3 - Trump +3.5
Post by: pikachu on November 04, 2016, 02:32:22 am
As a Bruin and Hillary supporter, I'd so love this poll to end up being complete junk on election day.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/3 - Trump +3.5
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 04, 2016, 05:31:55 am
Freedom trend!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/3 - Trump +3.5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 04, 2016, 07:05:44 am
Where is Trump's tremendous African American guy, when we need him. Hope that police didn't shot him down :(


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: cinyc on November 05, 2016, 02:33:49 am
11/4: Trump +5.4
Trump 48.0 (+1.1)
Clinton 42.6 (-0.8)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 05, 2016, 02:37:01 am
Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Dutch Conservative on November 05, 2016, 02:42:15 am
Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

But surely you do give them some credit for holding on to their model? 99% chance it's an outlier, but there is this 1% chance...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Buh her emails! on November 05, 2016, 02:48:12 am
This poll makes zogby seem reliable.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 05, 2016, 02:48:38 am
Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

But surely you do give them some credit for holding on to their model? 99% chance it's an outlier, but there is this 1% chance...

I respect anyone prepared to make a fool of themselves.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: RFayette on November 05, 2016, 03:46:30 am
Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

Eh, Gallup used to be seen as the a solute gold standard of the industry.  No one has ever thought that of the LA Times, and only diehard political junkies like us have even heard of its tracker.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 05, 2016, 04:25:02 am
their sample is more or less trump +6 and they know it.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 10:28:54 am
their sample is more or less trump +6 and they know it.
Or Trump +5 :P

But it is all about trends!


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 05, 2016, 10:39:28 am

yeah, they bescisally say: TIED

but their trendline is also "stranger" than others....too much movement.



Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2016, 11:08:17 am
I can't believe we are still worrying about this junk.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2016, 03:07:28 am
11/5: Trump +5.6
Trump 48.2 (+0.2)
Clinton 42.6 (-)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: North Fulton Swing on November 06, 2016, 06:01:00 am
Once this election is over, the L.A. Times and the University of Southern California need to disassociate with the joke of a "pollster". 


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Wade McDaniel on November 06, 2016, 06:02:27 am
Does anyone know their demographics?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Gustaf on November 06, 2016, 06:18:03 am
Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

Eh, Gallup used to be seen as the a solute gold standard of the industry.  No one has ever thought that of the LA Times, and only diehard political junkies like us have even heard of its tracker.

Actually, I've encountered plenty of people who basically only know this poll because they get their info from the alt right media bubble.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/4 - Trump +5.4
Post by: Wade McDaniel on November 06, 2016, 06:19:32 am
Man, these guys are about to be embarrassed. Even if Trump wins, their poll will still be trash since it's impossible he'd win by 6+ points. And if Hillary wins, they're going to look worse than Gallup did in 2012.

Eh, Gallup used to be seen as the a solute gold standard of the industry.  No one has ever thought that of the LA Times, and only diehard political junkies like us have even heard of its tracker.

Actually, I've encountered plenty of people who basically only know this poll because they get their info from the alt right media bubble.

How far off do you think it is?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2016, 07:58:31 am
According to this poll Trump will do better among Hispanics than Bush did in 2004.
Seems legit.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 11:32:55 am
Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

(Image Link)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 11:39:02 am
Haha, before it was a Trump's African-American, now it is Trump's Latino-American? :D


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Mallow on November 06, 2016, 11:39:39 am
Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Simfan34 on November 06, 2016, 02:28:40 pm
Does that young black guy in Ohio have a friend?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2016, 02:33:26 pm
Does that young black guy in Ohio have a friend?

Illinois.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: psychprofessor on November 06, 2016, 09:22:44 pm
LA Times tracking poll:  Trump +5
LA Times EV projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html …


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Joe Republic on November 06, 2016, 09:40:48 pm
LA Times tracking poll:  Trump +5
LA Times EV projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html …


Makes perfect sense.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 06, 2016, 10:20:29 pm
LA Times tracking poll:  Trump +5
LA Times EV projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html …


Makes perfect sense.

LA Times: "We know our poll is pure junk, but there's no point in cancelling it now since it's already paid for."


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2016, 11:03:56 pm
LA Times tracking poll:  Trump +5
LA Times EV projection: Clinton 352, Trump 186
http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/trailguide/la-na-trailguide-updates-here-s-our-final-electoral-map-of-the-1478473458-htmlstory.html …


Makes perfect sense.

LA Times: "We know our poll is pure junk, but there's no point in cancelling it now since it's already paid for."

Lol they just completely threw their tracking poll under the bus with that map.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/6 - Trump +4.8
Post by: cinyc on November 07, 2016, 03:34:11 am
11/6: Trump +4.8
Trump 48.0 (-0.2)
Clinton 43.2 (+0.6)


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/6 - Trump +4.8
Post by: Xing on November 07, 2016, 03:40:15 am
I wonder if this poll will end up being off by double digits, in the end.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/6 - Trump +4.8
Post by: Lok on November 07, 2016, 03:59:21 am
I wonder if this poll will end up being off by double digits, in the end.
Wouldn't be surprised if it did.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Mallow on November 07, 2016, 10:10:18 am
Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?

Bump. Does anyone know?


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 10:14:01 am
Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?

Bump. Does anyone know?
Yeah. It would be ~Clinton +1-3


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/5 - Trump +5.6
Post by: jaichind on November 07, 2016, 10:17:09 am
Latino Decisions ‏@LatinoDecisions  14m14 minutes ago
If you need a really good laugh in these final days - the infamous USC/LAT tracking poll has Latino vote at +3 Clinton. Final LD has it +63

Wowza... would this alone be enough to account for basically the entire discrepancy between this tracker and the major polls showing a 2-4 point Clinton lead right now?
Bump. Does anyone know?

Doing the math it would seem to be.  If Latino is 12% of the electorate and we add a 30% swing for Latinos would lead us to go from Trump 48 Clinton 43.2 to Clinton 46.8 Trump 44.4 which seems to be in line with other polls.  Of course other polls seems to indicate that Trump is not THAT far behind in the Latino vote.  So if we go for a 25% swing instead it is Clinton 46.2 Trump 45.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/6 - Trump +4.8
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2016, 03:21:59 am
I guess that's the last we'll hear from them.

Trump       46,8
Clinton      43,6


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/6 - Trump +4.8
Post by: Hammy on November 08, 2016, 03:26:00 am
Hopefully this is the last time they do this sort of garbage.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/6 - Trump +4.8
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 08, 2016, 03:39:13 am
this means something like....C+ 2-3.


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/6 - Trump +4.8
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 08, 2016, 08:35:40 am
I guess that's the last we'll hear from them.

Trump       46,8
Clinton      43,6
So Trump+3.2? Sounds like an Obama 2012-style victory for Clinton...


Title: Re: USC Dornsife/L.A. Times Daybreak National Tracking: 11/7 - Trump +3.2
Post by: Lyin' Steve on November 08, 2016, 12:57:54 pm
Really looking forward to the apologies from 538 and TCP for including this disgraceful poll in their estimations.