Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential Election => Topic started by: / on July 16, 2016, 02:17:28 pm



Title: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: / on July 16, 2016, 02:17:28 pm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_County,_Kentucky#Politics

It's voted for Democrats in landslides ever since its formation in 1869 but only gave 49% to Obama in 2012. Last rural county in the South never to vote for the GOP in a presidential election.

Year   Democratic   Republican
2012   49.4% 1,186   46.9% 1,126
2008   61.0% 1,535   35.9% 902
2004   69.8% 2,064   29.5% 871
2000   64.1% 1,527   34.7% 827
1996   64.4% 1,298   20.9% 421
1992   71.1% 1,796   17.6% 444
1988   76.2% 1,797   23.3% 550
1984   73.4% 1,683   26.2% 601
1980   74.4% 1,668   24.6% 551
1976   80.7% 1,987   18.5% 455
1972   65.3% 1,499   34.0% 782
1968   63.4% 1,387   23.6% 515
1964   86.2% 2,026   13.7% 323
1960   68.7% 1,734   31.3% 789


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Arch on July 16, 2016, 02:20:01 pm
Obama was a horrible fit for the county and still won. Clinton will take it back to the 60% range.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Devils30 on July 16, 2016, 02:20:29 pm
Trump. By like 8, it's sharply trending R.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 16, 2016, 03:20:46 pm
Trump. He's the perfect fit to extinguish the Democratic party there.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Flake on July 16, 2016, 03:50:48 pm
Trump has a lot of appeal in a place like Elliott County, I think he'll win it.

I could be wrong and Clinton absolutely demolishes him like most other Democrats before her.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: L.D. Smith on July 16, 2016, 04:19:22 pm
If trump continues as he does, Clinton clinches.

Decent fit without a doubt, but a lack of GOTV on any level is still gonna be costly.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Xing on July 16, 2016, 04:58:49 pm
I don't think Clinton will do worse than Obama's 2012 performance in KY, even though she'll still lose it badly. I'll say Clinton ekes out a win in Elliott.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Devout Centrist on July 16, 2016, 06:02:05 pm
This county is very confusing, especially if oh look at the difference between 2000 and 2004.

I predict a Clinton win.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Cаквояжник on July 16, 2016, 06:30:46 pm
I don't think Trump is going to do any better than Romney here KY.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 16, 2016, 07:58:52 pm
I'd be shocked if Clinton didn't win it.

New York billionaires like Trump are a poor fit for rural Kentucky.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: When we run out of hydrogen we become supernovas on July 16, 2016, 08:02:30 pm
Hillary Clinton is a white, you see.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on July 16, 2016, 08:06:40 pm
Hillary Clinton by 5-10 points.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on July 16, 2016, 09:20:31 pm

Oh I can't f***ing wait for West Virginia and eastern Kentucky to vote even more Republican in 2016 to blow this garbage logic out of the water.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Landslide Andy on July 16, 2016, 09:23:24 pm

Oh I can't f***ing wait for West Virginia and eastern Kentucky to vote even more Republican in 2016 to blow this garbage logic out of the water.

It was true logic, until Obama was re-elected. That was the final straw for these people, and they now see all Democrats as part of an anti-white hate group. So yes, you're correct those areas will likely swing R, with Elliott voting for Trump.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Seriously? on July 17, 2016, 12:59:36 am

Oh I can't f***ing wait for West Virginia and eastern Kentucky to vote even more Republican in 2016 to blow this garbage logic out of the water.

It was true logic, until Obama was re-elected. That was the final straw for these people, and they now see all Democrats as part of an anti-white hate group. So yes, you're correct those areas will likely swing R, with Elliott voting for Trump.
Anti-white hate group? Not quite. Hillary! didn't help matters in that one debate where she said that she wanted to put coal miners out of work. That comment will come back to bite her in parts of WV, KY, OH and Western PA.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 17, 2016, 09:18:24 am
Anti-white hate group? Not quite. Hillary! didn't help matters in that one debate where she said that she wanted to put coal miners out of work. That comment will come back to bite her in parts of WV, KY, OH and Western PA.

Then what about that interview where Donald Trump said coal miners were stupid? Why is that being covered up?


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: MT Treasurer on July 17, 2016, 11:30:18 am
Trump. He's the perfect fit to extinguish the Democratic party there.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: RINO Tom on July 17, 2016, 02:25:06 pm
Clinton, narrowly.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: VPH on July 17, 2016, 10:36:21 pm
Trump. It's a blue-collar white county in Kentucky. He's the capstone on the GOP's takeover of said demographic. Sad how Dems have ignored blue-collar whites.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Landslide Andy on July 17, 2016, 10:42:16 pm
Trump. It's a blue-collar white county in Kentucky. He's the capstone on the GOP's takeover of said demographic. Sad how Dems have ignored blue-collar whites.

Don't blame the Democrats that in many areas of the country blue collar whites prefer the party that stokes racial resentment. Democrats didn't ignore them, they just have their own priorities.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Anonymous on July 18, 2016, 03:25:41 am
Sanders won it in the primary, so I'm hypothesizing that Trump ekes out a 51-47ish victory here. Like virtually all of Appalachia, Elliott County is lone gone for the Democrats.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Tender Branson on July 18, 2016, 03:28:59 am
Trump, by about the 8-point margin that the poll above currently shows.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 18, 2016, 09:04:52 am
Sanders won it in the primary, so I'm hypothesizing that Trump ekes out a 51-47ish victory here. Like virtually all of Appalachia, Elliott County is lone gone for the Democrats.

Sanders voters are mostly turning to Clinton now.

And for what it's worth, Sanders didn't do nearly as well in eastern Kentucky as he did in West Virginia.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: When we run out of hydrogen we become supernovas on July 18, 2016, 09:23:50 am
Also contrary to popular belief, Elliott is not, and never has been, a coal county (it sits just outside the coal belt.)


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 18, 2016, 09:25:39 am
I think Elliott County's Democratic leanings actually predate the discovery of coal in eastern Kentucky. But apparently they're not Dixiecrats either, since they voted for Obama twice (once by a landslide margin).


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: RINO Tom on July 18, 2016, 09:28:08 am
I think Elliott County's Democratic leanings actually predate the discovery of coal in eastern Kentucky. But apparently they're not Dixiecrats either, since they voted for Obama twice (once by a landslide margin).

The fact that it was so close in 2012 all but confirms they ARE "Dixiecrats," to the extent that Dixiecrats still exist at all; there are only a couple hundred registered Republicans in the whole county.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: MB on April 12, 2019, 05:17:09 pm
what did I just read


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Contest of Truth: Science Beats Religion on April 12, 2019, 05:31:15 pm
()


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on April 12, 2019, 05:44:25 pm

I can't see your image.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Contest of Truth: Science Beats Religion on April 12, 2019, 05:47:39 pm

Its basically a screenshot of the largest County Swing %ages on this page (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/stats.php?year=2016&f=1&off=0&elect=0)


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on April 12, 2019, 05:47:50 pm
Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: libertpaulian on April 12, 2019, 06:22:56 pm
Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...
At this point, Democrats would probably sell their mother to get Obama's numbers with rural whites.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Skye on April 13, 2019, 12:36:41 am
I voted for Clinton back then. Isn't that cute?

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...

Oh yeah, which is why I'm super skeptical when I read takes that say Trump has hit his ceiling with rural voters. No my friend, those rural Trump >60% counties could very well become Trump >70-80% counties.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: RINO Tom on April 30, 2019, 01:08:06 pm
I voted for Clinton back then. Isn't that cute?

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...

Oh yeah, which is why I'm super skeptical when I read takes that say Trump has hit his ceiling with rural voters. No my friend, those rural Trump >60% counties could very well become Trump >70-80% counties.

They obviously could, but there is no guarantee they will.  EVERYWHERE has a ceiling.  We thought Republicans reached it before Trump with rural Whites, and we were wrong.  That doesn't automatically mean that predictions of >60% Trump counties becoming 80% Trump counties are going to turn out to be true, either.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Landslide Andy on May 05, 2019, 02:19:32 pm
Man, this thread will never fail to make me laugh.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Ilhan Apologist on May 11, 2019, 09:14:10 pm
Man, this thread will never fail to make me laugh cry.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: morgieb on May 11, 2019, 09:29:00 pm
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Landslide Andy on May 13, 2019, 04:35:08 pm
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: RINO Tom on May 13, 2019, 04:37:42 pm
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Landslide Andy on May 13, 2019, 04:46:51 pm
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on May 13, 2019, 07:59:39 pm
Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...

Who was saying that? Obama actually did pretty well with rural whites outside the South. Look at the 2008 county swing map if you don't believe me.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: MT Treasurer on May 13, 2019, 08:20:09 pm
This thread should have been titled "Who do you want to win Elliott County, KY?"


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Thunder98 on May 13, 2019, 08:36:09 pm
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

This. There are a number of posters also convinced that there's gonna be hordes of O'Rourke'18/Trump and Abrams/Trump voters and a sufficient number of Kim Reynolds/PresiDem voters or DeWine/PresiDem voters to make this the case. Which is just absurd.

and some posters on here think 2020 will be like 2012 and fing 2004


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Elitists for Bloomberg on May 14, 2019, 06:27:10 pm
This. There are a number of posters also convinced that there's gonna be a sufficient number of Cruz/Presidem and Kemp/Presidem voters and hordes of Hubbell/Trump voters or Cordray/Trump voters to make this the case. Which is just absurd.
FTFY


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Ilhan Apologist on May 14, 2019, 06:56:11 pm
This. There are a number of posters also convinced that there's gonna be a sufficient number of Cruz/Presidem and Kemp/Presidem voters and hordes of Hubbell/Trump voters or Cordray/Trump voters to make this the case. Which is just absurd.
FTFY


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: morgankingsley on May 15, 2019, 04:01:09 am
I think it is just crazy how it took until 2016 for the flip to finally happen


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Contest of Truth: Science Beats Religion on May 26, 2019, 06:54:50 pm
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: ElectionsGuy on May 29, 2019, 11:45:44 pm
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.

()


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: 538Electoral on May 30, 2019, 02:48:02 am
This is funny to watch 3 years later.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on May 30, 2019, 10:20:49 am
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.
In 2012,Obama won Elliot County and lost Gwinnett County by double digits. as I've said before, what happened in 2012 isn't really relevant to what will happen in 2020.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Still awaiting Iowa caucus results on May 30, 2019, 11:39:09 am
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.
In 2012,Obama won Elliot County and lost Gwinnett County by double digits. as I've said before, what happened in 2012 isn't really relevant to what will happen in 2020.

Yeah, Atlas really needs to understand this


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Contest of Truth: Science Beats Religion on May 30, 2019, 12:39:55 pm
This thread looks really bad on a lot of Atlas Democrats in hindsight.

I just wish they would learn from their mistakes for once. So many people who thought Elliott would vote for Hillary then started insisting 2016 trends would not apply to 2018, and are now insisting 2016/2018 trends will not apply to 2020, lol.

I honestly have not seen one person predict that 2020 wouldn't be similar flavor-wise to 2016/2018 (though, I admit, I do try to avoid our trashier elections-based subforums).  I have seen people predict that post-Trump, we won't see such a strong division on the exact same factors that currently divide the country, but that is hardly the same.

Unless you completely disregard 2016/2018 trends there is no reason to believe that Ohio is more likely to flip than Arizona or Georgia. Yet many of our posters unironically believe this.

An 11 point gap in the 2012 result means a lot more than a 3 point gap in the 2016 result regarding Ohio and Georgia.
In 2012,Obama won Elliot County and lost Gwinnett County by double digits. as I've said before, what happened in 2012 isn't really relevant to what will happen in 2020.

I never said that a 50 point gap in the 2016 result meant less than a 12 point gap in the 2012 result. Of course the 50 point gap in the 2016 result means far more in this case.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Grassr00ts on May 30, 2019, 09:22:44 pm
Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Ilhan Apologist on May 31, 2019, 10:36:47 pm
Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.

Huh? That's been happening for quite some time...


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Contest of Truth: Science Beats Religion on July 12, 2019, 09:50:41 am
Something to note is that the 2012 to 2016 swing was a result of almost as many Nonvoter 2012 to Trump 2016 voters (428) as Obama 2012 to Trump 2016 voters (446).


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Some of My Best Friends Are Gay on July 12, 2019, 11:05:37 am
Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.

Those formerly Democratic counties in swing states that are being lost are almost all rural and insignificant, and in most cases the Democrats can make up for this by urban/suburban areas, which are much more populous, swinging to the left.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Grassr00ts on July 12, 2019, 01:31:52 pm
Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.

Those formerly Democratic counties in swing states that are being lost are almost all rural and insignificant, and in most cases the Democrats can make up for this by urban/suburban areas, which are much more populous, swinging to the left.

That's no excuse.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: TDAS04 on July 12, 2019, 02:25:27 pm
Funny, funny, until eventually you start losing formerly democratic counties in swing states, then I will really laugh.

Those formerly Democratic counties in swing states that are being lost are almost all rural and insignificant, and in most cases the Democrats can make up for this by urban/suburban areas, which are much more populous, swinging to the left.

That's no excuse.

That's as ridiculous as saying that Republicans have no excuse in losing DuPage County, IL; Orange County, CA; Fort Bend County, TX; or Cobb & Gwinnett Counties, GA.  Next time, Riley County, KS--which has literally never voted Democratic in a presidential election before--could easily flip.  Voting patterns shift.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Alienated Social Democrat on September 14, 2019, 12:47:53 pm
()


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: National Progressive on September 18, 2019, 01:58:41 pm

The Utah/Mormon country swings are misleading considering most of it went to McMullin, not a Democrat. Wish there was a separate list for GOP to Dem swing counties.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Beef on September 18, 2019, 02:25:04 pm
I voted for Clinton back then. Isn't that cute?

Remember when people thought Obama hit rock bottom with rural whites...

Oh yeah, which is why I'm super skeptical when I read takes that say Trump has hit his ceiling with rural voters. No my friend, those rural Trump >60% counties could very well become Trump >70-80% counties.

They obviously could, but there is no guarantee they will.  EVERYWHERE has a ceiling.  We thought Republicans reached it before Trump with rural Whites, and we were wrong.  That doesn't automatically mean that predictions of >60% Trump counties becoming 80% Trump counties are going to turn out to be true, either.

At some point we're talking about high school drama teachers flipping. There are liberals everywhere. No place is a political monoculture.


Title: Re: Who will win Elliott County, KY?
Post by: Contest of Truth: Science Beats Religion on September 19, 2019, 05:24:07 am

The Utah/Mormon country swings are misleading considering most of it went to McMullin, not a Democrat. Wish there was a separate list for GOP to Dem swing counties.

Whats notable about the list is that it is a GOP to Dem swing list. The list does basically count Romney-Clinton swings for twice as much as it counts Romney-McMullin swings.