Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: cinyc on July 18, 2016, 12:17:38 am



Title: Internal poll megathread
Post by: cinyc on July 18, 2016, 12:17:38 am
Harper Polling (Internal for Senate Campaign of Republican Dan Carter) (http://www.newsmax.com/JohnGizzi/trump-hillary-clinton-poll/2016/07/17/id/739056/)
Clinton 43%
Trump 43%

July 5-6; 600 RV; Unknown MOE

It's a Republican internal, so definitely salt to taste and don't put it in the database.  I don't believe it, but Quinnipiac had CT at a relatively close (for CT) 45-38 Clinton back in June.

Do we have a megathread for publicly released internals somewhere?  We probably should.  They may be the only polls we get for some of the less polled states.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Crumpets on July 18, 2016, 12:22:30 am
I think Trump should spend a great deal of money here to try to flip it.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on July 18, 2016, 12:23:56 am
Yeah, 43% is about what Trump will get on election day in CT.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on July 18, 2016, 12:24:53 am
Quote
Donald Trump may be winning converts from an unlikely source — Democrats — a new unpublished poll shows.

And I have an unpublished poll showing Hillary winning Alabama.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Xing on July 18, 2016, 12:31:23 am
Sure, and Clinton is only down 5 in KY.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on July 18, 2016, 12:33:20 am
Pls


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on July 18, 2016, 12:34:50 am
There was an internal megathread in the primary poll sub but I don't see one for general, so this will be it.

Internals should not be put into the db but can be shared here.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Tender Branson on July 18, 2016, 01:47:02 am
CT tied ?

Extremely unlikely ...


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on July 18, 2016, 08:24:18 pm
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/2016/07/14/internal-polling-shows-gingrich-could-deliver-key-swing-states/

Southern Political Report, trying to hype up their Southern son Gingrich... before Pence was picked.

Trump/Pence lose Florida by 1
Trump/Pence win GA by 1 vs Clinton
Trump/Pence LOSE GA by 1 vs Clinton/Warren
Trump/Pence lose North Carolina


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on July 18, 2016, 08:30:53 pm
DSCC internal had Trump +5  in Indiana.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on July 18, 2016, 08:35:34 pm
DSCC internal had Trump +5  in Indiana.

That was among the undecided voters. They never published the numbers for all voters (likely not favorable for her).


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on July 18, 2016, 09:18:20 pm
Please link to sources or say where you saw it on TV


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on July 22, 2016, 09:05:25 pm
Quote
The poll has Kirk edging ahead of Democratic nominee Tammy Duckworth 41.9 percent to 40.4 percent, within the poll's plus or minus 3.5 percentage point margin of error, but better than the narrow 42.5 percent to 42 percent lead Duckworth held when Basswood last surveyed in April.

Kirk this summer ran TV ads before Duckworth, which could account for a margin shift that small. He's also loudly backed off an earlier endorsement of Trump.

Normally I'd say an incumbent with only 41.9 percent backing is in some trouble. But this is a strange year, and it's hard to say without knowing more about the roughly one in five voters who are undecided.

In comparison to the Senate contest, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a wide lead in her home state over the GOP's Trump.

Specifically, 46.4 percent of likely voters surveyed by phone said they favor Clinton, 32.5 percent are for Trump, 5.2 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2.6 percent for the Green Party's Jill Stein. Just over 13 percent were undecided.

Back on the Senate race, Basswood says Kirk is doing 22 points better than Trump among moderates, and 24 points better among women. Basswood's research memo didn't say what the relative margin is among Republicans and men, but it obviously is much smaller.

Basswood also found that Illinois voters oppose the Iran nuclear deal 51 percent to 28 percent, favor keeping the Guantanamo prison open 57 percent to 34 percent, and oppose admitting Syrian refugees to the U.S. 60 percent to 32 percent. There have been some sharp differences between Duckworth and Kirk on those issues, particularly the latter.   


http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160722/BLOGS02/160729927/poll-gives-kirk-edge-over-duckworth-but-clinton-clobbering-trump


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on July 22, 2016, 09:07:06 pm
The numbers for the presidential race seem plausible.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Classic Conservative on July 22, 2016, 09:10:36 pm
The numbers for the presidential race seem plausible.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on July 22, 2016, 09:36:38 pm
Since it's a repub internal add 5 points to the dems


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: StatesPoll on July 22, 2016, 10:05:39 pm


Specifically, 46.4 percent of likely voters surveyed by phone said they favor Clinton, 32.5 percent are for Trump, 5.2 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2.6 percent for the Green Party's Jill Stein. Just over 13 percent were undecided.

Illinois:  Hillary 46.4% TRUMP 32.5% Johnson 5.2% Stein 2.6%
http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160722/BLOGS02/160729927/poll-gives-kirk-edge-over-duckworth-but-clinton-clobbering-trump (http://www.chicagobusiness.com/article/20160722/BLOGS02/160729927/poll-gives-kirk-edge-over-duckworth-but-clinton-clobbering-trump)

of course HRC will win Illinois. But only +13.9% margins in deep blue state. Not very good sign for HRC ;)




Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 22, 2016, 10:08:17 pm
Go. Away.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on July 25, 2016, 07:26:49 am
Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 25, 2016, 08:07:40 am
Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)

From:
MAR. 31-APR. 3, Lake Research Partners, 400 LV   
Clinton 50%
Trump 37%


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on July 25, 2016, 01:30:00 pm
Georgia D-Internal poll from Lake Research Partners has Clinton +1 (Clinton 41, Trump 40, Undecided 16) with a sample of 600 LV.  No three-way numbers are listed (Stein isn't on the ballot here).  No crosstabs.

Link: https://cmgajcpolitics.files.wordpress.com/2016/07/lrpmemo-georgiademocraticparty-f-072016.pdf

Favorability:

Hillary Clinton 42/53  (-11)
Donald Trump 39/55  (-16)
Barack Obama 51/45 (+6)
Michelle Obama 61/27 (+34)
Bill Clinton 53/39 (+14)

I asked them the composition/preference and this is the most info they gave me. Seems reasonable considering past years and demographic growth.

Quote
we didn't include Johnson in the poll so we don't have numbers on him. The racial composition of the sample was 30% African American, 3% Latino, 2% Asian. The rest were white or other.

https://twitter.com/LoriGearyWSB/status/757588822469271557

WSB/LandMark should release something by 6PM for Georgia to confirm too.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 03, 2016, 09:48:08 pm
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on August 03, 2016, 09:49:59 pm
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: izixs on August 03, 2016, 10:08:10 pm
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?

This is Chuck Todd. This could mean 2 or 4.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on August 03, 2016, 10:08:48 pm
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

lol, that's insane. IA-3 or IA-1?

This is Chuck Todd. This could mean 2 or 4.

Ah... lol. If Hillary would be up 13 in IA-4, she would be landsliding beyond belief.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: / on August 04, 2016, 05:40:22 am
Pretty sure they're talking about IA-5, to be honest.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Interlocutor on August 05, 2016, 06:39:24 am
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: LLR on August 05, 2016, 06:58:41 am
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah

South Carolina??? I can barely contain my excitement


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: indietraveler on August 05, 2016, 05:50:40 pm
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

It's IA-2 that is typically democratic and IA-4 that's reliably republican. IA-1 is lean D so maybe he's talking about this district. A republican rep got elected in 2014 that had been held by a democrat, but it's likely to flip back this year. IA-3 is swing, maybe a tiny tilt R.

Either way if Clinton is truly up 13, whether it's IA-1 or 3, then she has the state.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on August 05, 2016, 07:20:45 pm
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
Any link?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on August 05, 2016, 07:23:49 pm
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
Any link?

Was he referring to that Georgia poll?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on August 05, 2016, 07:33:15 pm
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
Any link?

Was he referring to that Georgia poll?
That seems most likely. Not sure what other polls he would have had that far ahead of time by this point.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Badger on August 06, 2016, 11:30:18 pm
Don't know if it belongs in this thread and there is obviously no link, but Chuck Todd on MSNBC mentioned private internal polling from one of the party congressional committees that had "Clinton up 13 points" in one of the "swing districts in Iowa"

Iowa only has 4 congressional districts and 2 of them are swing districts (the 1st is Democratic and the 4th is Republican)

Gonna piggyback off this

Mr. Todd said this morning on MSNBC that the polls next week look to be getting worse for Trump. He also mentioned an upcoming poll showing Clinton leading in a solid R state, recalling the weird polls from Utah
Any link?

Was he referring to that Georgia poll?

That's my bet.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 10, 2016, 11:00:16 am
The DCCC says that Clinton is beating Trump by 14 points in FL-7 (northeast of Orlando) and 24 points in FL-26 (most of Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties)

https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/763376173296525312

That would indicate a Clinton lead of at least 5 points statewide


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: fldemfunds on August 10, 2016, 10:04:39 pm
The DCCC says that Clinton is beating Trump by 14 points in FL-7 (northeast of Orlando) and 24 points in FL-26 (most of Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties)

https://twitter.com/KimberlyRailey/status/763376173296525312

That would indicate a Clinton lead of at least 5 points statewide

We managed to snag a really strong candidate in FL 7 too. If she's winning fl 7 by 14 points (it is a 50-50 seat after redistricting), she's probably up in Florida by 8 or 9.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devils30 on August 10, 2016, 10:12:08 pm
FL-7 and 26 will probably have greater Democratic trends than other districts in the state. I expect most of northern Florida to move very little in either direction, Miami to completely collapse for Trump and for Trump to somewhat underperform in places like Collier, Sarasota. He'll do fine in Volusia.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: fldemfunds on August 11, 2016, 06:35:06 am
FL-7 and 26 will probably have greater Democratic trends than other districts in the state. I expect most of northern Florida to move very little in either direction, Miami to completely collapse for Trump and for Trump to somewhat underperform in places like Collier, Sarasota. He'll do fine in Volusia.

I don't disagree with any of this. Fl 7 is heavy college educated Republicans. I've been telling my Republican friends that the difference between a Rubio win and loss is hillarys margin. If she wins by 7-8 or more, he's probably toast.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: RI on August 11, 2016, 12:50:00 pm
Clinton +6 in KS-03 (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/763792785057148928)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on August 11, 2016, 12:50:47 pm
Kevin Yoder (R) internal poll of KS-03 shows Yoder +17 and Clinton +6 per Politico's Scott Bland (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/763792785057148928).  Romney won the district by 10.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on August 11, 2016, 12:51:07 pm
Clinton +6 in KS-03 (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/763792785057148928)

lol, are KS, SC, AZ and GA flipping D this year, while IA flips R? That would be quite interesting.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on August 11, 2016, 01:04:34 pm
Clinton +6 in KS-03 (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/763792785057148928)

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on August 11, 2016, 01:05:12 pm
It's in line with a 5% or so statewide victory for Trump. KS-01 will drag him over the finish line.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on August 11, 2016, 01:08:32 pm
Clinton +6 in KS-03 (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/763792785057148928)

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
375-163.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on August 11, 2016, 01:09:58 pm
Clinton +6 in KS-03 (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/763792785057148928)

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
375-163.

Probably even competitivish in NE-1.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 11, 2016, 01:46:05 pm
Clinton +6 in KS-03 (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/763792785057148928)

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
375-163.

Probably even competitivish in NE-1.

That's the GOP incumbent congressman's internal showing Clinton up 6 in his district. Confirms that Trump is only leading by single digits in KS


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on August 11, 2016, 01:51:26 pm
Clinton +6 in KS-03 (https://twitter.com/PoliticoScott/status/763792785057148928)

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  15m15 minutes ago Washington, DC
Nate Cohn Retweeted Scott Bland
Clinton probably comfortable ahead in NE-2 if this is right
375-163.

Probably even competitivish in NE-1.

Mmm. I dunno. KS-03 is more similar to NE-02 than NE-01. Lincoln is drowned out by surrounding suburbs and rural areas in Nebraska's first that I don't think Clinton really has a chance.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on August 13, 2016, 02:24:46 pm
A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720  (https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on August 13, 2016, 02:25:48 pm
A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720  (https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720)

Ugh you literally beat me by 1 second.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on August 13, 2016, 02:30:23 pm
A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720  (https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720)
Eh that's a load of junk.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on August 13, 2016, 02:34:32 pm
No, Trump will win Indiana by 30+ points because he picked beloved Hoosier demigod Mike Pence as his running mate. Even Alabama, Oklahoma, and West Virginia would flip before Indiana voted against Mike Pence. Atlas told me so!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on August 13, 2016, 02:36:33 pm
Gregg is +7 in the internal ftr.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 13, 2016, 02:42:58 pm
A Gregg internal shows Trump and Clinton tied at 44% in Indiana.

https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720  (https://twitter.com/hwypol/status/764497782677790720)

Ugh you literally beat me by 1 second.

That means Clinton probably trails by 5 in IN


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on August 13, 2016, 02:48:58 pm
lol. Even if its close in Indiana, that's devastating.

Once again, I'm right - Pence hurts Trump's chances in Indiana.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on August 13, 2016, 02:50:04 pm
Trump is in trouble everywhere, so of course he's also undeperforming in IN. I doubt it has anything to do with Pence, lol.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on August 13, 2016, 02:52:59 pm
Trump is in trouble everywhere, so of course he's also undeperforming in IN. I doubt it has anything to do with Pence, lol.

Yeah, I agree. I doubt Pence hurt or helped. Most likely he had no effect, which would be consistent with his middling approval rating and the tough fight for re-election he was going to have.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Xing on August 13, 2016, 02:55:27 pm
Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on August 13, 2016, 03:05:27 pm
Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.

I believe it is, yes. If Clinton wins Indiana, she can thank the downballot.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 13, 2016, 03:41:07 pm
Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.

I believe it is, yes. If Clinton wins Indiana, she can thank the downballot.

Reverse coattails almost never happen


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Xing on August 13, 2016, 05:26:39 pm
Yeah, I don't think Bayh will help Clinton in Indiana, but if he really is doing 26 points better than her (or something close to that) I can't imagine him losing.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: NOVA Green on August 13, 2016, 05:38:53 pm
Is that the same internal which had Bayh up 26? If not, I'd be curious to see Bayh's numbers.

I believe it is, yes. If Clinton wins Indiana, she can thank the downballot.

Reverse coattails almost never happen

Not sure I buy the reverse coattails theory either in most cases, but there is a chance that voters not liking either presidential nominee might show up to vote for the Senate election, and if so Holmes might have a point that in an extremely close election (like 2008) that if these otherwise non-voters show up they might decide to cast ballots for President at the same time....


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on August 14, 2016, 11:47:54 am
I don't know if this is the right format or place for this post, but a pollster called Howey Politics has Clinton and Trump tied in INDIANA at 44% each:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/14/1559993/-Are-Trump-and-Clinton-tied-44-44-in-Indiana

That's with Trump picking an Indiana running mate!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: LLR on August 14, 2016, 11:54:07 am
I don't know if this is the right format or place for this post, but a pollster called Howey Politics has Clinton and Trump tied in INDIANA at 44% each:

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/8/14/1559993/-Are-Trump-and-Clinton-tied-44-44-in-Indiana

That's with Trump picking an Indiana running mate!

Who is unpopular in his state


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on August 15, 2016, 02:16:40 pm
538 has more details on this Indiana poll. The pollster is called "Expedition Strategies", was taken over August 1-3, included 600 Likely Voters, and was adjusted to a 1 point lead for Clinton in the 538 polls-only model and a 1 point lead for Trump in the polls-plus model.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on August 15, 2016, 02:19:10 pm
538 has more details on this Indiana poll. The pollster is called "Expedition Strategies", was taken over August 1-3, included 600 Likely Voters, and was adjusted to a 1 point lead for Clinton in the 538 polls-only model and a 1 point lead for Trump in the polls-plus model.
It's given no grade at all and is weighted at .47 (cf. Tarrance's late July poll still at .41, and Marist's April poll still weighted at .96), for those interested.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on August 17, 2016, 06:09:57 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-summer-warning-227129

Quote
While Trump was faring well in some conservative states like Missouri and Indiana, according to the RGA’s figures, he’s losing two states where Republicans are hoping to elect governors, North Carolina and Vermont.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 18, 2016, 07:43:46 pm
More on North Carolina: Jonathan Martin in the NYT contacted GOP internal pollsters and found that Trump's position in NC is close to what NBC/WSJ found.

When questioned on the margin, Martin said the Burr and McCrory campaigns told him Trump is down double digits

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/republicans-worry-a-falling-donald-trump-tide-will-lower-all-boats.html?_r=0


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on August 19, 2016, 09:21:36 am
More on North Carolina: Jonathan Martin in the NYT contacted GOP internal pollsters and found that Trump's position in NC is close to what NBC/WSJ found.

When questioned on the margin, Martin said the Burr and McCrory campaigns told him Trump is down double digits

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/republicans-worry-a-falling-donald-trump-tide-will-lower-all-boats.html?_r=0

Wow. If Trump is down double digits in GOP internals then Burr and McCrory are dead men walking.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on August 19, 2016, 09:36:35 am
More on North Carolina: Jonathan Martin in the NYT contacted GOP internal pollsters and found that Trump's position in NC is close to what NBC/WSJ found.

When questioned on the margin, Martin said the Burr and McCrory campaigns told him Trump is down double digits

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/19/us/politics/republicans-worry-a-falling-donald-trump-tide-will-lower-all-boats.html?_r=0

We need a North Carolina is evolving GIF.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: pbrower2a on August 19, 2016, 10:21:01 am
Trump down double digits in North Carolina? I find that hard to believe. If so, then the closest analogue to this election will be 1964.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on August 19, 2016, 10:25:04 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-summer-warning-227129

Quote
While Trump was faring well in some conservative states like Missouri and Indiana, according to the RGA’s figures, he’s losing two states where Republicans are hoping to elect governors, North Carolina and Vermont.

I love how they bothered to tell us that Trump is losing in Vermont.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 19, 2016, 10:26:33 am
Considering how Virginia and Colorado have basically shifted from tossup to likely dem overnight, its hard to find a state more similar to those two than NC. NC is the new VA.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: MasterJedi on August 19, 2016, 10:28:17 am
Considering how Virginia and Colorado have basically shifted from tossup to likely dem overnight, its hard to find a state more similar to those two than NC. NC is the new VA.

Can't really say that for anyone other than Trump though. State would be close but I have to believe any other Republican would win it against Clinton especially.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 19, 2016, 10:31:12 am
Considering how Virginia and Colorado have basically shifted from tossup to likely dem overnight, its hard to find a state more similar to those two than NC. NC is the new VA.

Can't really say that for anyone other than Trump though. State would be close but I have to believe any other Republican would win it against Clinton especially.

True, but the real question will be if Trump is a fluke or a harbinger of permanent realignment. It's not hard for me to imagine him permanently shifting VA, CO, and NC slightly bluer from now on. Especially considering that Romney and McCain were about as acceptable to your average college educated white as any GOP candidate I see coming down the road any time soon, and these states were at least competitive under those two candidates. A 5% college educated white shift basically puts VA away, makes CO lean dem (at least as much as NH, PA) and makes NC the new FL.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on August 19, 2016, 10:52:05 am
Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 19, 2016, 11:31:02 am
Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: darthpi on August 19, 2016, 11:38:53 am
Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on August 19, 2016, 11:39:58 am
Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on August 19, 2016, 11:47:28 am
Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: darthpi on August 19, 2016, 12:04:41 pm
Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Mehmentum on August 19, 2016, 12:32:27 pm
I find it odd that Trump is doing so well in Iowa, but is getting demolished in Wisconsin.  Aren't the Demographics of these states similar?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Crumpets on August 19, 2016, 12:41:01 pm
Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.

What are the WOW counties? Pardon the ignorance.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Nhoj on August 19, 2016, 12:43:59 pm
Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.

What are the WOW counties? Pardon the ignorance.
Waukesha-Ozaukee-Washington.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Southern Speaker Punxsutawney Phil on August 19, 2016, 12:48:16 pm
Specifically, the Republican internals have Trump down double digits in the Raleigh and Charlotte suburbs. If the GOP lose that, it'll be like NoVA again.

Similarly, the last Marquette poll had Clinton winning the WOW counties in Wisconsin, which went to Romney by 30. Trump is flat-lining in affluent suburbs.

WAT

LOL. Safe D Wisconsin. That's a landslide here then. Something around the lines of 60-40.

Marquette had Clinton up by 5% (4 way vote) in the Milwaukee media market, outside of the city of Milwaukee. This includes the WOW counties, but also includes the Milwaukee County suburbs, Racine, Kenosha, Sheboygan, Fond du Lac, Jefferson, and Walworth counties.

Oh, okay, that's at least within the realm of comprehension. Although even that broader area was won by McCain 53-46 in 2008, so Trump is still badly under-performing there.

What are the WOW counties? Pardon the ignorance.
Pardon the Circle of ignorance :P


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fargobison on August 23, 2016, 08:34:31 pm
Quote
Meg KinnardVerified account
‏@MegKinnardAP
More: Feldman Group poll commissioned by @SCDP has Clinton/Trump tied at 39% w/third-parties included. Take them out & Trump leads 45%-43%.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on August 23, 2016, 08:40:14 pm
Quote
Meg KinnardVerified account
‏@MegKinnardAP
More: Feldman Group poll commissioned by @SCDP has Clinton/Trump tied at 39% w/third-parties included. Take them out & Trump leads 45%-43%.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192

Doesn't sound too far off actually.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: psychprofessor on August 23, 2016, 08:44:02 pm
Quote
Meg KinnardVerified account
‏@MegKinnardAP
More: Feldman Group poll commissioned by @SCDP has Clinton/Trump tied at 39% w/third-parties included. Take them out & Trump leads 45%-43%.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192

Doesn't sound too far off actually.

Not if Virginia is double digits and NC is mid to high single digits. If that's the case Georgia is probably tied or slightly Clinton.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 23, 2016, 09:04:27 pm
Quote
Meg KinnardVerified account
‏@MegKinnardAP
More: Feldman Group poll commissioned by @SCDP has Clinton/Trump tied at 39% w/third-parties included. Take them out & Trump leads 45%-43%.

https://twitter.com/MegKinnardAP/status/768258422131208192

Doesn't sound too far off actually.

Not if Virginia is double digits and NC is mid to high single digits. If that's the case Georgia is probably tied or slightly Clinton.

I think Clinton trails by 5 in SC. Remember when a group puts out an internal it usually overstates their position by 5 points. What it does show is that NC is Clinton's and GA is a tossup


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: NOVA Green on August 23, 2016, 09:17:17 pm
Not totally unreasonable considering the state was only (54-49 McCain in '08), so if one looks at the national polling averages, combined with some of the neighboring state polls, it makes sense that this state could be close within MOE, even adjusting for the partisan internal organization that conducted the poll.

Additionally is a highly educated state, where even in the cradle of the Confederacy, we could expect to see a significant defection among "Angry Country Southern Club Ladies", and educated White voters in general to have Yuuuge issues with the current Republican nominee.

Also, there are other reports regarding collapse of Trump support within the suburbs/exurbs of Charlotte, that would include Chester, Chesterfield, Lancaster, and York Counties, most of which are heavily Republican, at a time where the Trump campaign has not yet aired a single ad in NC.

As, I discussed elsewhere with fellow forumites, there is also a significant collapse in Coastal SC counties, from "country club" Republicans from Horry to Beaufort, and even rock solid Republican suburb of Columbia (Lexington County).

It is just an internal poll but..... feel free to discuss, particularly those that live in the state/region and more familiar with some of the demographics.

 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: NOVA Green on August 23, 2016, 09:40:22 pm
I respectfully suggest to the mods that these two SC threads/post be merged....

Normally internals belong to this thread, but SC is now a hot topic so whatever makes sense.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on August 26, 2016, 09:23:44 pm
A poll conductd by Rick Scott's Super PAC shows Clinton and Trump tied in Ohio, 45-45.

Quote
Scott is the head of the Rebuilding America Now PAC, which—in conjunction with pollsters from On Message, Inc.—conducted a battleground survey in the state of Ohio. The survey of 600 likely voters from August 13 to August 17, with a margin of error of 4 percent, shows Trump tied with Clinton at 45 percent apiece with 10 percent undecided in a two-way race. In the four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein included, Trump and Clinton are still tied at 42 percent, while Johnson gets 8 percent and Stein just 2 percent—with 6 percent undecided.

Link. (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/26/exclusive-rick-scott-ohio-poll-shows-tie-but-trumps-20-point-lead-over-clinton-with-independents-proves-voters-want-outsider/)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 26, 2016, 09:26:02 pm
A poll conductd by Rick Scott's Super PAC shows Clinton and Trump tied in Ohio, 45-45.

Quote
Scott is the head of the Rebuilding America Now PAC, which—in conjunction with pollsters from On Message, Inc.—conducted a battleground survey in the state of Ohio. The survey of 600 likely voters from August 13 to August 17, with a margin of error of 4 percent, shows Trump tied with Clinton at 45 percent apiece with 10 percent undecided in a two-way race. In the four-way race with Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein included, Trump and Clinton are still tied at 42 percent, while Johnson gets 8 percent and Stein just 2 percent—with 6 percent undecided.

Link. (http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/08/26/exclusive-rick-scott-ohio-poll-shows-tie-but-trumps-20-point-lead-over-clinton-with-independents-proves-voters-want-outsider/)

Clinton +4 or 5 in OH then


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on August 29, 2016, 09:37:11 am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on August 29, 2016, 09:42:25 am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

Why does it seem like GOP internals are more D-friendly that public polls? In NC we heard Trump was down double digits, but recent polls show it's still pretty close.

If I recall in 2014 GOP internals were actually pretty accurate.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 09:44:37 am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”
McCain's pollster, Trump probably leads :)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 29, 2016, 10:00:04 am
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

McInturff also teams up with Peter Hart, a Dem pollster, for the NBC/WSJ poll so he is legit


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on August 29, 2016, 03:20:54 pm
https://twitter.com/mattmfm/status/770354384731602944
https://www.scribd.com/document/322485067/CA-49-Strategies-360-for-Doug-Applegate-Aug-2016

Trump's incredibly weak in affluent, well-educated areas. New poll has Clinton +5 in CA-49 (Issa). 2012: Romney +6.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 03:22:49 pm
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/john-mccain-is-in-the-fight-of-his-life-in-the-age-of-donald-trump/2016/08/29/1e3168ac-6b11-11e6-99bf-f0cf3a6449a6_story.html

according to McCain’s pollster, Bill McInturff, “Trump and Clinton are essentially running even in Arizona.”

Why does it seem like GOP internals are more D-friendly that public polls? In NC we heard Trump was down double digits, but recent polls show it's still pretty close.

If I recall in 2014 GOP internals were actually pretty accurate.

Both the D & R internals are showing a bigger lead for Clinton than a lot of the polls; and what we are seeing in the ground games and how the campaigns are responding is that feels like the case.  I think perhaps the public polls are starting to show a "herding" effect; with so many daily trackers and the like showing a close race, the other pollsters are showing the same herding problem we've seen in the past.
You don't really imply that internall poll are better, don't you?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on August 29, 2016, 04:30:04 pm
Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 04:54:45 pm
Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? :)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on August 29, 2016, 05:05:00 pm
Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? :)

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 05:42:02 pm
Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? :)

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 29, 2016, 06:41:36 pm
GOP poll for MN-03 also had Presidential numbers.

Clinton 39%
Trump 30%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%

(Obama won MN-03 in 2012 by less than 1%)

https://twitter.com/RachelSB/status/770401070266724352


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on August 29, 2016, 06:42:18 pm
GOP poll for MN-03 also had Presidential numbers.

Clinton 39%
Trump 30%
Johnson 11%
Stein 4%

(Obama won MN-03 in 2012 by less than 1%)

https://twitter.com/RachelSB/status/770401070266724352

LOL. Wow, that's horrible. He's gonna lose MN badly.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 29, 2016, 06:58:31 pm
Another MN congressional poll that included Presidential numbers (couple days old).

MN-02 (Dem internal)

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

Obama won MN-02 by 0.06%


http://www.twincities.com/2016/08/24/whos-winning-in-the-2nd-district-candidates-polls-disagree/



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on August 29, 2016, 07:10:09 pm
Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? :)

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?

There a numerous reasons to get internals out...


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on August 29, 2016, 07:12:47 pm
Another MN congressional poll that included Presidential numbers (couple days old).

MN-02 (Dem internal)

Clinton 42%
Trump 35%
Johnson 13%
Stein 5%

Obama won MN-02 by 0.06%


http://www.twincities.com/2016/08/24/whos-winning-in-the-2nd-district-candidates-polls-disagree/



So Clinton's probably up 2-4 in this one?

Probably. If Trump is trailing in MN-02, MN-03 he is probably down double digits statewide.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: OwlRhetoric on August 29, 2016, 07:47:17 pm
Those MN-02 numbers look reasonable to me. Hillary likely has an even larger lead statewide, but if third party numbers keep holding up here they are going to prevent a blowout very much above 10%. She'll still win MN easily unless something crazy happens.

This is definitely a state where Johnson is pulling more support from her than Trump, and Stein will probably get above 1% too.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on August 31, 2016, 07:44:55 pm
Publicly released internals are usually junk meant to set a narrative. The private ones are meant to be good, otherwise they wouldn't be hiring them.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 31, 2016, 07:52:35 pm
Publicly released internals are usually junk meant to set a narrative. The private ones are meant to be good, otherwise they wouldn't be hiring them.
What's happening? :o I entirely agree with you. It just doesn't feel right :-\


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on September 05, 2016, 09:19:15 pm
Internal poll for EDF Action and LCV Victory Fund.

Clinton: 47(+2 from July)
Trump: 35(-3 from July)

https://www.scribd.com/document/322753969/WI-Sen-Pres-GSG-for-LCV-Sept-2016


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on September 05, 2016, 09:23:16 pm
Seems a bit high


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Invisible Obama on September 05, 2016, 09:24:16 pm
As expected, this race will not even be remotely close.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on September 05, 2016, 09:24:59 pm
(http://www.clipartbest.com/cliparts/4T9/pL4/4T9pL4XTE.png)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: matthew27 on September 05, 2016, 09:32:05 pm
Its been decades since a Republican has won this state and it certainly won't be Trump....


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Buh her emails! on September 05, 2016, 09:39:35 pm
But but but!!!!! Trump was improving in the rust belt states!!!!!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on September 05, 2016, 09:39:48 pm
I think the margin is too high, but fantasies about WI being a Trump/tipping point state are bonkers.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Xing on September 05, 2016, 09:42:27 pm
A bit inflated, but yeah, Trump won't win Wisconsin.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on September 05, 2016, 09:56:52 pm
Internal ----> Trash

That being said, if Trump wins WI, he has already won the election.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Deblano on September 05, 2016, 10:09:39 pm
But but but!!!!! Trump was improving in the rust belt states!!!!!

muh rust belt brexit


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Pessimistic Antineutrino on September 05, 2016, 10:51:37 pm
Accept this one, and ignore the Wisconsin gold standard which shows Clinton only up by 3, yeah ok. *eyeroll*

Maybe a bit of a strawman I admit, but if I had to guess the reality is somewhere between this and the Marquette poll. Clinton up 7 or 8 seems reasonable considering her national margin.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on September 05, 2016, 11:02:27 pm
This is an internal, and my rule for taking 5 points off the side releasing the internal holds true for Democrats too. Clinton +7 in WI makes a lot of sense


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 01:19:30 am
Seems a bit high
Of course it is, this thing is basically a Democrat push poll for a left-leaning group.

I think I'd take Marquette over "Global Strategy Group" any day of the week.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: pbrower2a on September 06, 2016, 01:22:29 am
We have seen this sort of margin before in Wisconsin. Wisconsin usually closes hard for Democrats... Wisconsin will be at the most on the fringe of contention at any point from now until November. 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 03:44:19 am
Emerson is junk, but this is a great poll from a great pollster. amIrighigt?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on September 06, 2016, 05:11:24 am
Same poll shows Feingold with an 18-point lead over Johnson. Junk.

I think I'd take Marquette and Monmouth over "Global Strategy Group" any day of the week.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 06, 2016, 10:07:24 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/07/us/politics/donald-trump-ohio-john-kasich.html?ref=politics&_r=0

Quote
Mitt Romney lost Franklin County by 125,000 votes. Mr. Trump is supported by only about 20 percent of the voters there, according to a Republican strategist briefed on private polling.

Errr... Obama won Franklin 60-38 in 2012.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on September 06, 2016, 10:16:10 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/07/us/politics/donald-trump-ohio-john-kasich.html?ref=politics&_r=0

Quote
Mitt Romney lost Franklin County by 125,000 votes. Mr. Trump is supported by only about 20 percent of the voters there, according to a Republican strategist briefed on private polling.

Errr... Obama won Franklin 60-38 in 2012.
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 06, 2016, 10:25:04 am
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/07/us/politics/donald-trump-ohio-john-kasich.html?ref=politics&_r=0

Quote
Mitt Romney lost Franklin County by 125,000 votes. Mr. Trump is supported by only about 20 percent of the voters there, according to a Republican strategist briefed on private polling.

Errr... Obama won Franklin 60-38 in 2012.
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
I'd rather believe internalls than public ones. 2012!!!111


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 11:28:25 am
Internal polls are generally better than public polls, yes (at least the ones that aren't high quality polls funded my major media companies).
Evidence? :)

Some internal polls from the parties have to be pretty accurate because the parties' entire reason for existence is to win
Can't see connection, actually. And, of course, it is not an evidence. If your internal polls is not showing you winning, you don't talk about them, because it will hurt you.

What is entire reason of most pollster firms?

There a numerous reasons to get internals out...
The problem with internals is that you don't know which internal you are getting. The one based on the assumption of max turnout of the party that sanctioned the internal or the real number.

It's the probing of the "what if" factor that is generally the problem.

We have no idea of what the baseline assumptions are.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 08, 2016, 07:13:34 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/trump-candidates-downballot-hurt-227882

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/774008265281789953

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/7/9/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts

It seems like despite the public polls tightening, there's been a lot of bed wetting among GOP consultants screaming disaster.

Trump is behind in KS-03 which Daily Kos says Romney won 54-44.

In SC senate district 22, Trump is down 22 (Romney lost by 15)

In Indiana, IN-2 which Romney won by 14% and IN-2 which Romney won by 17, are close.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on September 08, 2016, 07:16:06 pm
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 08, 2016, 07:26:25 pm
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 08, 2016, 07:35:30 pm
Besides CNN and Quinnipiac, who both have crazy swings and heavy editorializing in their poll releases, I think most of the big pollsters strive to be honest and present an accurate depiction of the race. It seems clear the race has tightened.

But Trump is still behind and people in down ballot races have real concerns that Trump is going to blow it for them, even if he is improving a few points.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on September 08, 2016, 07:37:00 pm
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Agreed, and I think #2 is the most likely explanation. No way every big pollster is "rigging" the numbers.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on September 08, 2016, 08:05:15 pm
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Or 4: The GOP's internals showing Trump as a dumpster fire are correct because they are making unusual moves with money, like using RGA money instead of RNC money which is forced to prop up a failing candidate atop the ticket


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 08, 2016, 08:33:50 pm
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Or 4: The GOP's internals showing Trump as a dumpster fire are correct because they are making unusual moves with money, like using RGA money instead of RNC money which is forced to prop up a failing candidate atop the ticket
This may be true, but in that case public polls should be showing that as well, unless there's some force which is pulling the two apart.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 08, 2016, 08:52:21 pm
The problem is it doesn't matter if Trump loses Colorado by 10 or by 5, he's still losing.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 09, 2016, 04:48:09 am
Really strange that Trump seems to consistently be doing much, much worse in private GOP polling than he is in public polls.
To my mind, there are three probable explanations:

1. The media wants a horse race, and are tweaking their methodologies/sampling to aid the narrative
2. The GOP wants a sense of panic among organizers (and/or donors), and is tweaking their polling in turn
3. Random noise (given how consistent the pattern is, though, this seems pretty unlikely)

Or GOP just doesn't like Trump. They can't say it loud, because R-voters are pretty much behind Trump. Right now, the race is about Clinton +2-4, and it is tie a Ohio/Florid/Iowa etc. We should by default get some internals, where Trump has a comfortable lead, just because of nature of polls. But the "leaked" polls are always awful for Trump.

It just doesn't add up.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gustaf on September 09, 2016, 05:12:05 am
The most obvious explanation might be that there is some differing assumption between the polls, for example as relates to turnout models. But it's hard to know who is right then.

Proper internal polls are probably better than public ones - the problem with internals is rather that we never know what they decide to show us.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 16, 2016, 11:49:13 am
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on September 16, 2016, 11:54:54 am
Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on September 16, 2016, 11:55:49 am
Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Classic Conservative on September 16, 2016, 11:58:44 am
Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on September 16, 2016, 12:03:29 pm
Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Puerto Ricans are much more D than Cubans and have disproportionately grown in the last 4 years relative to other Hispanics in the state. So it depends how the intentional over sample was composed (can't see right now, on iPhone). Does it say anything?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 16, 2016, 12:23:10 pm
Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: marty on September 16, 2016, 12:24:36 pm
Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on September 16, 2016, 12:29:06 pm
I mean, he literally just explained what an oversample was and how it is reweighted so as to not impact the topline numbers, but I guess you are content with your ignorance.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on September 16, 2016, 12:38:09 pm
Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.

That's an absolutely unjustified insult.  Oversampling is a recognized technique to reduce the margin of error within the subgroup.  It does not change the overall result.  Here's a description of the technique from the well-respected pollster Pew Research (emphasis mine):

"Oversampling

For some surveys, it is important to ensure that there are enough members of a certain subgroup in the population so that more reliable estimates can be reported for that group. To do this, we oversample members of the subgroup by selecting more people from this group than would typically be done if everyone in the sample had an equal chance of being selected. Because the margin of sampling error is related to the size of the sample, increasing the sample size for a particular subgroup through the use of oversampling allows for estimates to be made with a smaller margin of error. A survey that includes an oversample weights the results so that members in the oversampled group are weighted to their actual proportion in the population; this allows for the overall survey results to represent both the national population and the oversampled subgroup."

This is from http://www.pewresearch.org/methodology/u-s-survey-research/sampling/.

Perhaps you should consider not insulting people based on your false assumptions.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Shadows on September 16, 2016, 12:41:24 pm
Feingold winning is tremendous. He is a very strong progressive principled voice & would strengthen the Merkley-Warren-Sanders-Brown strong progressive group (some of whom endorsed Clinton).

And a senate majority is crucial. Without it nothing will get done with a tea party far right republican agenda.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Shadows on September 16, 2016, 12:43:27 pm
If you can't take a contrarian opinion you have got a problem, this is not a fanclub. There is a tendency to trash every poll where Hillary loses n support every poll where she wins which is no fair. Let's not be delusional here.

I think Hillary's problem in the LV-RV gap. She maybe leading by 1-2% in RV but she is probably losing among LV due to the huge enthusiasm gap & the firing up of the conservative base & some independents for Trump!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 16, 2016, 01:38:07 pm
Public polls obviously are junk. Internals, they are good. If they wasn't why would Hillary hire them. Right?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on September 16, 2016, 01:52:37 pm
Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.

This may be the least self aware post I have ever seen, congratulations


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on September 16, 2016, 02:56:47 pm
Public polls obviously are junk. Internals, they are good. If they wasn't why would Hillary hire them. Right?
This particular poll was paid for by the Patrick Murphy campaign but I don't think you are particularly concerned with reality.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 16, 2016, 03:55:58 pm
Public polls obviously are junk. Internals, they are good. If they wasn't why would Hillary hire them. Right?
This particular poll was paid for by the Patrick Murphy campaign but I don't think you are particularly concerned with reality.
Ehm. It is an internal made by D. Would they publish it, if Murphy was trailing by 10%, genius?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on September 17, 2016, 01:41:42 pm
In PA's 8th CD, Republican internal poll shows Clinton (42-37) running ahead of Obama in 2012 (50-49).

Apparently I don't have enough posts to include links yet, but you can find it on The Morning Call (mcall.com) if you search for "Fitzpatrick with some good news for Clinton in the 8th District?"

(or just go to: mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-fitzpatrick-with-some-good-news-for-clinton-in-the-8th-district-20160916-story.html)
 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 17, 2016, 02:09:26 pm
In PA's 8th CD, Republican internal poll shows Clinton (42-37) running ahead of Obama in 2012 (50-49).

Apparently I don't have enough posts to include links yet, but you can find it on The Morning Call (mcall.com) if you search for "Fitzpatrick with some good news for Clinton in the 8th District?"

(or just go to: mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-fitzpatrick-with-some-good-news-for-clinton-in-the-8th-district-20160916-story.html)
 
Nice try, Hillary! Accept that you are losing! :D


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on September 17, 2016, 02:16:13 pm
In PA's 8th CD, Republican internal poll shows Clinton (42-37) running ahead of Obama in 2012 (50-49).

Apparently I don't have enough posts to include links yet, but you can find it on The Morning Call (mcall.com) if you search for "Fitzpatrick with some good news for Clinton in the 8th District?"

(or just go to: mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-fitzpatrick-with-some-good-news-for-clinton-in-the-8th-district-20160916-story.html)
 
Nice try, Hillary! Accept that you are losing! :D

This is from a Republican internal poll ???


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on September 17, 2016, 02:18:13 pm
The poll was conducted Sep.6/7, so before the whole "basket of deplorables"/pneumonia thing.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 17, 2016, 02:54:05 pm
In PA's 8th CD, Republican internal poll shows Clinton (42-37) running ahead of Obama in 2012 (50-49).

Apparently I don't have enough posts to include links yet, but you can find it on The Morning Call (mcall.com) if you search for "Fitzpatrick with some good news for Clinton in the 8th District?"

(or just go to: mcall.com/news/nationworld/pennsylvania/capitol-ideas/mc-fitzpatrick-with-some-good-news-for-clinton-in-the-8th-district-20160916-story.html)
 
Nice try, Hillary! Accept that you are losing! :D

This is from a Republican internal poll ???
Stop defending Hillary!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on September 17, 2016, 09:48:23 pm
The poll was conducted Sep.6/7, so before the whole "basket of deplorables"/pneumonia thing.

Well taking into account the new PA poll, seems the last week didnt change much of anything in PA


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on September 17, 2016, 09:50:14 pm
The poll was conducted Sep.6/7, so before the whole "basket of deplorables"/pneumonia thing.

Well taking into account the new PA poll, seems the last week didnt change much of anything in PA

True. Terrible news for Trump.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on September 17, 2016, 11:03:39 pm
Apparently, On Message Inc, a Republican polling firm, has Clinton tied with Trump at 45 percent each in Ohio. Devastating news for Trump, if true.

It was from AUG. 13-17.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 20, 2016, 08:16:22 am
https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti/status/778220489437286400

Public polls have OH tight, but @AFLCIO's @RichardTrumka will today reveal internals w Trump 5pts behind Romney '12 among local union voters


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ronnie on September 21, 2016, 02:39:06 pm
Trump is up by 35 points in WY according to an internal that a firm, DFM Research, conducted for the Democratic nominee in WY-AL, Ryan Greene:

Donald Trump 54%
Hillary Clinton 19%
Gary Johnson 10%
Jill Stein 2%

https://www.scribd.com/document/324811878/WY-AL-DFM-Research-for-Ryan-Greene-Sept-2016


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Buh her emails! on September 21, 2016, 02:47:44 pm
Trump is up by 35 points in WY according to an internal that a firm, DFM Research, conducted for the Democratic nominee in WY-AL, Ryan Greene:

Donald Trump 54%
Hillary Clinton 19%
Gary Johnson 10%
Jill Stein 2%

https://www.scribd.com/document/324811878/WY-AL-DFM-Research-for-Ryan-Greene-Sept-2016

But I was told WY was a battleground state!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 21, 2016, 10:20:33 pm
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/amid-corruption-issues-rivera-losing-to-unknown-asencio-in-fla-democratic-poll-105658

in Florida House District 118, Trump is trailing Democrat Hillary Clinton 49-43 percent. in 2012 President Obama won it by about 2 points


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on September 21, 2016, 10:41:46 pm
Trump is up by 35 points in WY according to an internal that a firm, DFM Research, conducted for the Democratic nominee in WY-AL, Ryan Greene:

Donald Trump 54%
Hillary Clinton 19%
Gary Johnson 10%
Jill Stein 2%

https://www.scribd.com/document/324811878/WY-AL-DFM-Research-for-Ryan-Greene-Sept-2016

But I was told WY was a battleground state!

My thread was more satire than it was talking about an actual possibility. While a Reagan-esque landslide looked remotely possible in August, it clearly isn't now.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on September 21, 2016, 11:16:20 pm
WV, Just Win Strategies (R):

57% Trump (R)
30% Clinton (D)

http://wvmetronews.com/2016/09/19/gop-poll-shows-tight-gubernatorial-race-much-closer-than-metronews-west-virginia-poll/


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: cinyc on September 28, 2016, 08:16:40 pm
Trump +8 in Missouri in an internal poll for Republican gubernatorial candidate Eric Greitens by the Tarrance Group (http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article104745351.html):

Trump 46%
Clinton 38%

September 19-22; MoE +/- 4.1.

Koster is up by 3 in the governor's race.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on September 29, 2016, 03:57:29 pm
Clinton +6 (https://www.scribd.com/document/325787312/CA-49-DCCC-Sept-2016) in CA-49 (Issa's district). Obama won it very narrowly in 2008, and lost in 52 to 46 in 2012 to Mitt Romney.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on September 29, 2016, 04:12:07 pm
Trump +8 in Missouri in an internal poll for Republican gubernatorial candidate Eric Greitens by the Tarrance Group (http://www.kansascity.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article104745351.html):

Trump 46%
Clinton 38%

September 19-22; MoE +/- 4.1.

Koster is up by 3 in the governor's race.

Thats rather low for an internal


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 30, 2016, 11:27:22 am
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on September 30, 2016, 11:30:57 am
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.

Interesting how they didn't release the Senate race numbers. Not a good sign for Cortez-Masto.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on September 30, 2016, 12:01:45 pm
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.

Interesting how they didn't release the Senate race numbers. Not a good sign for Cortez-Masto.

To be fair, this is Heck's congressional district.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on September 30, 2016, 04:59:31 pm
https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/781959952948666369

Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball got word of an Ohio Lucas County (Toledo) poll by Stan Odesky and Associates.

Clinton 50
Trump 23
Johnson 6
Stein 1
Undecided 21

Obama won it by 32, 65-33, and Kyle thinks her 27 point margin is decent, considering the undecideds.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on September 30, 2016, 05:00:47 pm
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/dccc-poll-clinton-rosen-up-in-swing-district
Nevada's 3rd congressional district

The survey, taken this week of 458 likely voters and with a 4.5 percent margin of error, shows Clinton up 46-38 over Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson garnering 10 percent of the vote. (Clinton is up 5 in a two-way.)

President Obama won the district by 1 point in 2012 and 9 points in 2008.

Interesting how they didn't release the Senate race numbers. Not a good sign for Cortez-Masto.

House internals don't usually poll senate candidate, so this isn't exactly surprising.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on September 30, 2016, 05:04:17 pm
https://www.scribd.com/document/325976866/IL-10-Normington-Petts-for-Brad-Schneider-Sept-2016

Clinton leads Trump 59 to 32 in IL-10, Dold's district. Way above Obama's 16 point margin in 2012 and similar to his 26 point margin in 2008. Schneider is ahead of Dold by 5, 46 to 41.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on September 30, 2016, 05:06:49 pm
House internals don't usually poll senate candidate, so this isn't exactly surprising.

Yeah, but in this case they polled the Senate race (Question 6), but for some reason refused to release the numbers. Strange, but it's Joe Heck's district after all.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devils30 on October 02, 2016, 12:14:50 pm
There's no way Hillary wins NV-3 and loses the state.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2016, 02:10:11 pm
Wow, I didn't really notice this thread.  Likewise, I've used it to update my ratings on how each congressional district will vote in the Presidential Election.  

(http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_02_10_16_1_48_02.png) (http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/5422_02_10_16_1_48_02.png)


Not that it matters much, since most states don't award electoral votes based on whoever wins each congressional district.  However, I would have bragging rights if I correctly predicted every CD for the presidential election.  ;D

Dos anyone know if there are polls for IL-6 and IL-14?  Obama lost both districts by 8% and 10% respectively, however that poll of the 10th shows Trump vastly under-preforming Romney's percentage there.  Trump seems like a pretty bad fit for the Chicago suburbs, so perhaps his weakness is not just limited to one district.    


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on October 02, 2016, 02:30:09 pm
Hmmm.. ME-02 should definitely be a Tossup IMO.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 02, 2016, 02:43:46 pm
Hmmm.. ME-02 should definitely be a Tossup IMO.

At least a Tossup.  Lean R is probably closer to the current situation.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2016, 03:19:20 pm
Do the polls for Maine have a French speaking option?  Almost 4% (47,000) of Maine residents speak it, and most of them are likely located in the second district, closer to the Canadian border.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2016, 03:21:11 pm
Do the polls for Maine have a French option?  Almost 4% (47,000) of Maine residents speak it, and most of them are likely located in the second district, closer to the Canadian border.

In addition, many of the French towns bordering Canada vote heavily Democratic.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 02, 2016, 10:38:45 pm
Any takers?  :P


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: cinyc on October 02, 2016, 10:45:27 pm
Any takers?  :P

Takers for what?  I doubt Maine pollsters poll in French.  As you pointed out, French-speaking Mainers are less than 10% of the population.  And most of them probably speak English, too, anyway, like many Québécois.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on October 03, 2016, 01:52:54 am
Any takers?  :P

Takers for what?  I doubt Maine pollsters poll in French.  As you pointed out, French-speaking Mainers are less than 10% of the population.  And most of them probably speak English, too, anyway, like many Québécois.

I honestly didn't know, that's why I was asking. 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 03, 2016, 01:07:41 pm
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/783004625263820801

Clinton +11 in Colorado from Keating Research.

Clinton 44
Trump 33
Johnson 11
Stein 3
Other 4
Undecided 6

Among white voters, she's ahead 42-37.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 04, 2016, 01:34:33 pm
https://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/NV-CD-03-10.3.16.pdf

According to The Tarrance Group, in Nevada's 3rd congressional district, Donald Trump has a three point advantage (43%-40%) over Hillary Clinton in the Presidential race and Trump has a three point advantage (38%-35%) among voters making a definite choice.



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 04, 2016, 01:43:55 pm
Clinton ahead by 2 in GOP internal of IA-01.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326394011/IA-01-The-Polling-Company-for-Rod-Blum-Oct-2016


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on October 04, 2016, 01:46:40 pm
Clinton ahead by 2 in GOP internal of IA-01.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326394011/IA-01-The-Polling-Company-for-Rod-Blum-Oct-2016

Definitely a good sign.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 04, 2016, 01:57:51 pm
Using my 5 point rule for internals, the Nevada internal is a very good sign for Clinton, but the Iowa internal is no better than mixed news (Clinton should win that district by 10)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 04, 2016, 02:12:42 pm
To clarify: My 5 point internal rule--when a candidate puts out an internal poll, their real position, and the position of the party, is 5 points worse than the internal.

Applying this to Nevada, Tarkanian is in a dead heat for NV-3, Heck leads by 5 for Senate and Clinton leads by 2. In 2012, Obama won NV-3 by 0.8% so Clinton looks to be in a good position in the state. Even if the internal were correct (the most optimistic scenario), Clinton would hold a narrow lead statewide as NV-3 was about 5-6 points to the right of the state in 2012.

Iowa is at best mixed news for the Democrats. Obama won IA-1 by 13.5% in 2012 so Clinton needs a larger lead here to win the state. Using the 5 point internal role, Blum leads by 11, Grassley leads by 18 and Clinton leads by 7. If Clinton loses 6.5 points to Obama's margin in IA-1 she is likely trailing in Iowa by 2-3 points


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: NOVA Green on October 04, 2016, 03:20:17 pm
To clarify: My 5 point internal rule--when a candidate puts out an internal poll, their real position, and the position of the party, is 5 points worse than the internal.

Applying this to Nevada, Tarkanian is in a dead heat for NV-3, Heck leads by 5 for Senate and Clinton leads by 2. In 2012, Obama won NV-3 by 0.8% so Clinton looks to be in a good position in the state. Even if the internal were correct (the most optimistic scenario), Clinton would hold a narrow lead statewide as NV-3 was about 5-6 points to the right of the state in 2012.

Iowa is at best mixed news for the Democrats. Obama won IA-1 by 13.5% in 2012 so Clinton needs a larger lead here to win the state. Using the 5 point internal role, Blum leads by 11, Grassley leads by 18 and Clinton leads by 7. If Clinton loses 6.5 points to Obama's margin in IA-1 she is likely trailing in Iowa by 2-3 points

I was just going to mention isn't this a D +5 PVI according to Cook Political reports, as well as the most Democratic CD in the state?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 04, 2016, 03:28:31 pm
Clinton +7 in NJ-05 in Democratic internal. Obama lost it by 4 in 2012 and 2 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326407714/NJ-05-GYH-for-HMP-Oct-2016



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 04, 2016, 03:37:35 pm
Clinton +7 in NJ-05 in Democratic internal. Obama lost it by 4 in 2012 and 2 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326407714/NJ-05-GYH-for-HMP-Oct-2016



That means Clinton is running slightly ahead of Obama in this district even with a 5 point adjustment against the Democrats. Would also imply she is winning both counties on Long Island since those areas are very similar


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 04, 2016, 06:04:05 pm
https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lok on October 04, 2016, 06:23:00 pm
Florida's gonna be reallllly tight this year

I'm gonna bank on everyone underestimating Puerto Rican participation and turnout and it not being as close as everyone expects.
http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/09/rubio-leads-by-2-in-internal-murphy-campaign-poll-105537

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 46-43 percent in Florida, according to the poll of 800 likely voters by Global Strategy Group.

Sept. 6-11; 40% of the survey respondents were Democrats, 38% Republicans and 22% independents — a generally representative breakdown of turnout by party in Florida presidential elections.
At the end of the article it says that they purposely over-sampled Hispanics

Oversample generally means they poll more of a subgroup to get a lower margin of error, but their share of the vote is not overstated. For example, a national poll of 400 might only get 50 Hispanics to respond, which is a huge margin of error. So they could additionally focus poll 200 Hispanics, use the R/D split, and then fit it back to the 50/400.

You are such a hackish poster. And you absolutely work for the HRC campaign.
Speak for yourself.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on October 04, 2016, 06:28:33 pm
https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

3rd party gonna third party


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 05, 2016, 12:33:52 pm
Democratic Internal has Clinton +4 in ME-02.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016

Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Xing on October 05, 2016, 01:12:57 pm
Democratic Internal has Clinton +4 in ME-02.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326519491/ME-02-Normington-Petts-for-Emily-Cain-Oct-2016


That's a solid improvement over the last internal showing her down 4.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 05, 2016, 06:28:58 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0

Quote
Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 05, 2016, 06:32:43 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0

Quote
Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop

This part of the article is also interesting...Blunt trails Kander in internal polling for MO-Sen and Clinton is closing the deficit there. That would indicate that Trump is losing a small piece (2-3%) of his base

Quote
Compounding their difficulties, Republicans are also fending off a challenge to Senator Richard M. Burr in North Carolina, a state Mrs. Clinton is determined to win, and have also become just as worried about Senator Roy Blunt’s prospects in Missouri. Strategists in both parties who have seen internal polling say Mr. Blunt, whose seat initially seemed safe, is now trailing his Democratic challenger, Jason Kander, a deft campaigner who has been helped by Mrs. Clinton’s narrowing deficit in the state.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 05, 2016, 11:30:08 pm
This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on October 05, 2016, 11:39:35 pm
This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

Good. He deserves no less.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Clinton1996 on October 06, 2016, 12:00:11 am
This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

That's the difference between the first debate in 2012, and the one this year: last time Romney surged but Obama's numbers stayed steady whilst conversely Trump is both dropping and Clinton surging.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 06, 2016, 12:17:01 am
This has to have been one of the most impactful Presidential debates ever. Trump is crashing everywhere.

The 2004 and 2008 debates also had similar shifts (though the 2008 debate was mixed up Lehman Brothers and the aftermath of that). But IIRC in 2004 Bush was leading by like 10 points before the first debate, and then Kerry brought it back to a tie.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Solidarity Forever on October 06, 2016, 01:25:46 am
https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

Excellent news!  Millenials must finally be coming home!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Shadows on October 06, 2016, 03:07:36 am
https://twitter.com/LisaDNews/status/783440613207310339

sources in both parties tell me their (separate) internal polling shows @GovGaryJohnson is sliding fast and it benefits @HillaryClinton

Excellent news!  Millenials must finally be coming home!

Let's go Bernie!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 06, 2016, 09:16:19 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-western-nevada-arizona-229219

Two post-debate polls of likely Colorado voters this week showed Clinton leading Trump by 11 points overall..“This is her high water mark right now,” said a GOP operative whose private polling showed Clinton at her highest point all year.



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 06, 2016, 01:04:52 pm
Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 06, 2016, 01:08:28 pm
seeing issa gone would be a as refreshing  for me as harry reid's departure is for right-wingers.

a shame that mister gowdy has such a safe seat. ;)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fubart Solman on October 06, 2016, 01:18:04 pm
Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016

As usual, CA-07 will be close. It's nice that at least one of my votes really counts. I've been push polled by a Dem poll; there will probably be more.

I doubt that Jones is ahead by that much if Clinton leads by 4. Bera has been hammering Jones on sexual harassment allegations, while Jones has been attacking illegal fundraising by Bera's father. This will be a close race for the third time in a row. I expect that Bera will pull it off though.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on October 06, 2016, 01:27:59 pm
Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Whoa if true


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 06, 2016, 01:30:40 pm
Republican Internal has Clinton +4 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 in 2008 and 4 in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326523708/CA-07-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Scott-Jones-and-the-NRCC-Oct-2016

As usual, CA-07 will be close. It's nice that at least one of my votes really counts. I've been push polled by a Dem poll; there will probably be more.

I doubt that Jones is ahead by that much if Clinton leads by 4. Bera has been hammering Jones on sexual harassment allegations, while Jones has been attacking illegal fundraising by Bera's father. This will be a close race for the third time in a row. I expect that Bera will pull it off though.
Former resident of CA-04 speaking.

I fully expect Bera to win. He pulled it off against Doug Ose, former Congressman from that district (back in the mid-00's before redistricting). Ose was a pro choice Republican and on the whole, very moderate. Scott Jones, on the other hand, is not.

Bera won in a midterm election, he should win now.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: NOVA Green on October 06, 2016, 03:10:36 pm
Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Def good news for the Dem challenger even if we use the +5 internal rule.

However, most of Isaa's district is actually in North County San Diego, so I wouldn't assume from this internal that OC will flip (Although I think it will for other reasons).


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on October 06, 2016, 03:24:50 pm
yaaaaas true scumbag Issa is going to be sent to the low energy loser GRAVEYARD.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 06, 2016, 03:36:54 pm
John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: MasterJedi on October 06, 2016, 03:40:04 pm
John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704



Aka they're finished, and with the way things are going NV won't go their way and I still suspect if he continues to crash Iowa and Ohio are gone too.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 06, 2016, 03:44:52 pm
Pennsylvania not even mentioned!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ronnie on October 06, 2016, 03:45:00 pm
John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 06, 2016, 03:46:58 pm
John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

Clinton pretty much has Trump 99% boxed out if that scenario is true. No complacency though


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Interlocutor on October 06, 2016, 03:47:27 pm
Clinton +14 in Democratic Internal of CA-49. Romney won it by 6 in 2012 and Obama won it by 1 in 2008. Applegate leads Issa by 4. Clinton is almost certainly going to win OC if these numbers are close to true.

https://www.scribd.com/document/326641168/CA-49-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016


That would be an incredible. Issa ran his first TV ad a week ago, shedding any doubt that he's in the race of his life.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on October 06, 2016, 03:47:50 pm
John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704

If NH is in his path to 270, then he has no path.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 06, 2016, 03:51:29 pm
Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 06, 2016, 03:53:54 pm
Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
Nah, that is just his New York pollster. His real pollster is Tony Fabrizio iirc.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 06, 2016, 03:59:42 pm
Remember, Trump campaign's pollster is the McLaughlin guy who showed Eric Cantor cruising for reelection.
Nah, that is just his New York pollster. His real pollster is Tony Fabrizio iirc.

So, has he actually done any New York polling or is it just an honorary position?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 06, 2016, 04:09:18 pm
John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

If Trump can get back ahead in NH, NC and FL (which they don't call long shots) they get to 269.  ME2 gets him to 270.  If you look at his TV spending last week, this seems to be their strategy, with CO being their only additional significant spend as a possible backup. 

It's a risky strategy to bet the farm on a plan that relies on winning NV or CO but if PA, WI, and MI are looking to stay in the blue wall, what other choice do they have?  They are focussing on states Bush Jr won at last once except for NM (too many mexicans) and VA (home of Kaine)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 06, 2016, 04:23:24 pm
Does anyone know if internal polling is more accurate than public polls?

I'd imagine so since they use voter registration files and go by vote history rather than people that claim they're likely to vote. Public polls I imagine understate Democrat voters who tell pollsters they're unsure of voting but end up voting anyway.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 06, 2016, 04:28:25 pm
Does anyone know if internal polling is more accurate than public polls?

I'd imagine so since they use voter registration files and go by vote history rather than people that claim they're likely to vote. Public polls I imagine understate Democrat voters who tell pollsters they're unsure of voting but end up voting anyway.
Obama's internals were very accurate in 2012, while Romney's were horribly off.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on October 06, 2016, 04:39:57 pm
Internal polls should be better because they start with the voter data and they have their own metriics ofrom their GOTV operations, but they can get things wrong if they make bad assumptions.  Romney's team assumed they would get their voters out and Obama wouldn't.  They were wrong. It would be curious to see what assumptions the Trump team are using to show leads in NV and OH.  I would bet that Clinton internals have her up in both. 

It's like that recent upshot experiment where they gave the same raw data to four different pollsters, and each had a different result. Some showing trump up some Clinton up.   


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 06, 2016, 05:40:49 pm
More internal poll goodness. Remember when Gallup said they were not polling the Presidential race directly? Well apparently they are, and here is a peek into their methodology for a poll they took from September 14-18.

Quote
Results for this Gallup poll are based on telephone interviews conducted Sept. 14-18, 2016, with a random sample of 1,033 adults, aged 18 and older, living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia, including 931 registered voters. For results based on the total sample of registered voters, the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. For results based on the 444 registered voters who support either Hillary Clinton or the 407 registered voters who support Donald Trump, the margin of sampling error is ±6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. All reported margins of sampling error include computed design effects for weighting.

When doing the back-calculations, this was a national RV poll of 931 registered voters. Their results were:

Clinton 444/931 (47.7%, rounded up to 48)
Trump 407/931 (43.7%, rounded up to 44)
Undecided or Third Party 80/931 (8.6%)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 06, 2016, 05:44:14 pm
If Gallup has Clinton up by 4, then we could be seeing an Akin effect after all.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 06, 2016, 05:44:48 pm
If Gallup has Clinton up by 4, then we could be seeing an Akin effect after all.

They had Clinton up by 4 among RVs from September 14-18


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 06, 2016, 05:45:44 pm
Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 06, 2016, 05:47:46 pm
If Gallup has Clinton up by 4, then we could be seeing an Akin effect after all.

They had Clinton up by 4 among RVs from September 14-18
I saw that, I'm just saying that, given their ineffectiveness, it's not a stretch to say they're underestimating her.

Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".

Yeah, but more people cite RCP. I like Huffpo's pollster, but they seem to get less attention overall.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 06, 2016, 05:56:58 pm
Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".

Yeah, but more people cite RCP. I like Huffpo's pollster, but they seem to get less attention overall.

The question is why. RCP is notorious for cherrypicking R friendly polls.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: NOVA Green on October 06, 2016, 06:03:00 pm
John Harwood tweet...Trumps advisers say their internal polls have them ahead in Iowa, Ohio and Nevada and behind in NH, NC and FL. PA, CO, VA and the upper Midwest are significant long shots for him

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/784122190555848704


They're basically admitting that their candidate can't make it to 270 then.  If that doesn't signify the end, then I don't know what does.

Clinton pretty much has Trump 99% boxed out if that scenario is true. No complacency though

This kind of reminds me of a certain German leader whose close confidants and military advisers told him while the Red Army was in the outer suburbs of Berlin, and Montgomery and Eisenhower are racing from the West as fast as they can, while the whole time the dude is camped out in his bunker listening to the historical equivalent of Baghdad Bob, and no one will say what the actual reality of the situation is.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erc on October 06, 2016, 06:15:10 pm
Internal polls should be better because they start with the voter data and they have their own metriics ofrom their GOTV operations, but they can get things wrong if they make bad assumptions.  Romney's team assumed they would get their voters out and Obama wouldn't.  They were wrong. It would be curious to see what assumptions the Trump team are using to show leads in NV and OH.  I would bet that Clinton internals have her up in both. 

It's like that recent upshot experiment where they gave the same raw data to four different pollsters, and each had a different result. Some showing trump up some Clinton up.   

Internal polls may be better for people working in the campaign who get to see all of them, but obviously we don't get to see all of them.

From the Democratic side, we are selectively leaked the ones that look good (e.g. statistical fluctuations in their direction).  From the Republican side, we get more because that ship is leaking like crazy...but we generally expect Democratic polls to be of better quality, because all the young people with brains are working for the Democrats.

But yes, obviously it's not good for Trump that he's down in 4 states that he needs to win, and his only possible path to victory is the FL/NC/NH/ME-2 eye of the needle to 270 (and hope there are no faithless electors).  Also doesn't help that those states aren't the best correlated, so pulling the inside straight here isn't likely at all.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 06, 2016, 06:18:15 pm
https://www.savethechildrenactionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/SCAN-NH-General-Election-public-100616.pdf

greenberg quinlan rosner research new hampshire

Clinton 46
Trump 38


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 06, 2016, 06:28:03 pm
Even during her bad spell, pollster.com always had Clinton ahead by 4 points. This race was never "tied".

Yeah, but more people cite RCP. I like Huffpo's pollster, but they seem to get less attention overall.

The question is why. RCP is notorious for cherrypicking R friendly polls.
We Americans love simplicity. Hence, Real CLEAR Politics.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on October 07, 2016, 02:29:12 pm
Mark Kirk internal poll has Clinton up 17 in Illinois (50-33):

https://de.scribd.com/document/326741685/Mark-Kirk-s-internal-polling


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on October 07, 2016, 08:07:07 pm
https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 07, 2016, 08:07:15 pm
https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784559054349799424

Quote
Lisa Murkowski’s campaign just blasted out an internal poll that shows her way ahead but has Trump up only three on Clinton in Alaska


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 07, 2016, 08:07:55 pm
https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3

#BattlegroundAlaska

That being said, Alaska has trended Democratic the last four elections


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on October 07, 2016, 08:10:01 pm
https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784559054349799424

Quote
Lisa Murkowski’s campaign just blasted out an internal poll that shows her way ahead but has Trump up only three on Clinton in Alaska

Nonsense. Trump is gonna win by 20 points because Hillary's a bad fit.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 07, 2016, 08:10:27 pm
Of all the currently red states in the 538 forecast, Clinton has the third highest chance of winning Alaska, after Arizona and Georgia. Interesting......


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on October 07, 2016, 08:10:53 pm
All these internal polls are showing a 1964-style landslide. Interesting.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on October 07, 2016, 08:11:25 pm
https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784559054349799424

Quote
Lisa Murkowski’s campaign just blasted out an internal poll that shows her way ahead but has Trump up only three on Clinton in Alaska

Nonsense. Trump is gonna win by 20 points because Hillary's a bad fit.

why is Trump a better fit for Alaska?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 07, 2016, 08:17:28 pm
Wow @Alaska! I'm still waiting for her to crush him in the town hall before declaring victory.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on October 07, 2016, 08:29:20 pm
https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/784559054349799424

Quote
Lisa Murkowski’s campaign just blasted out an internal poll that shows her way ahead but has Trump up only three on Clinton in Alaska

Nonsense. Trump is gonna win by 20 points because Hillary's a bad fit.

why is Trump a better fit for Alaska?

I was teasing at a prediction a certain poster with an orange avatar made a while ago. In my opinion, Trump might be an even worse fit for the state than Hillary is.

Now that Trump is collapsing bigly, it could be competitive if the Clinton campaign makes a furious rally for it.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 07, 2016, 08:38:27 pm
http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 07, 2016, 08:45:30 pm
http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

If these look really good in the last week, don't be shocked if Clinton is in Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri. Kaine and Sanders maybe get shipped up to Alaska if it looks close.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: RJEvans on October 07, 2016, 08:55:49 pm
http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

Send Bernie for a couple stops.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on October 07, 2016, 09:01:43 pm
Sending anyone to Alaska is kind of a waste. It's only three electoral votes, and takes about 8 hours or so to fly there, depending on where you're leaving from. There are more important stops on the mainland that surrogates can go to instead.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 07, 2016, 09:03:37 pm
http://www.npr.org/2016/04/29/476047822/sanders-campaign-has-spent-50-percent-more-than-clinton-in-2016

It would be fun, but they've proven themselves relatively thrifty (let Sanders outspend them in many states). And they had the chance in Georgia and passed, and are barely advertising in Arizona. Begich spent huge on ads and ground game and couldn't win in 2014. She can't come in at the last minute and expect to win.

Plus, why play around with Alaska, when she can secure North Carolina?

All bets are off now with what is coming out of the GOP


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 07, 2016, 09:04:03 pm
All these internal polls are showing a 1964-style landslide. Interesting.

lol, more like 2008.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 07, 2016, 09:05:38 pm
All these internal polls are showing a 1964-style landslide. Interesting.

lol, more like 2008.

I think we are at 2008 levels, but I think things could get worse. You aren't going to convince folks to vote for Clinton, but stuff like this could convince folks to not even vote.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on October 07, 2016, 09:07:59 pm
I'm thinking 2008 + AZ + GA - IN, with an outside shot at MO and an even more outside shot at SC.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 07, 2016, 09:27:43 pm
https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3
Wow. Applying the "Internal Rule"... wow... AK might be legit competitive this year. We'll see.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 07, 2016, 09:43:48 pm
https://twitter.com/reidepstein?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Murkoswki internal has Trump only +3
Wow. Applying the "Internal Rule"... wow... AK might be legit competitive this year. We'll see.

A caveat on that internal rule; I believe Murkowski is #NeverTrump so her people might be playing it more straight than other pollsters for GOP candidates. That being said, a GOP internal skews GOP even in that circumstance. Maybe not 5 pts but it does skew GOP a little bit


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 07, 2016, 10:10:25 pm
Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Xing on October 07, 2016, 10:17:03 pm
I think AK will be a single-digit race this year, but I don't think Hillary will actually win it, unless she wins the PV by double digits.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 07, 2016, 10:23:26 pm
Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376

I want to see a Utah poll next week


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fubart Solman on October 07, 2016, 10:40:20 pm
Republican internals had a "Mark Foley-esque" drop after Trump's Machado comments, apparently.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/784586571328741376

I want to see a Utah poll next week


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 08, 2016, 12:22:13 am
Link (http://www.gallup.com/poll/196172/aversion-candidate-key-factor-2016-vote-choice.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=lead&g_campaign=tiles).

As many of you know, Gallup was embarrassed back in 2012 when they had Romney winning by 1, so they stopped officially releasing horserace numbers.

However, they do still poll the question, but it seems that they are hiding the results. It says in the release that they sampled 1033 adults, and subsequently 931 registered voters, and that 444 of those registered voters support Clinton and 407 of them support Trump. Doing the math, that breaks down to:

Clinton - 47.6%
Trump - 43.7%

I already put this in the internal poll thread


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on October 08, 2016, 12:23:58 am
Link (http://www.gallup.com/poll/196172/aversion-candidate-key-factor-2016-vote-choice.aspx?g_source=Election%202016&g_medium=lead&g_campaign=tiles).

As many of you know, Gallup was embarrassed back in 2012 when they had Romney winning by 1, so they stopped officially releasing horserace numbers.

However, they do still poll the question, but it seems that they are hiding the results. It says in the release that they sampled 1033 adults, and subsequently 931 registered voters, and that 444 of those registered voters support Clinton and 407 of them support Trump. Doing the math, that breaks down to:

Clinton - 47.6%
Trump - 43.7%

I already put this in the internal poll thread

My mistake. Thanks.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Simfan34 on October 08, 2016, 12:32:48 am
I won't be happy unless tomorrow's flash poll is Clinton +24.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 09, 2016, 03:53:14 pm
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

(http://www.clipular.com/c/5928450020081664.png?k=YoW7O3cF9gmcGfKcvZG3Wk9Ummg)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on October 09, 2016, 03:54:05 pm
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

(http://www.clipular.com/c/5928450020081664.png?k=YoW7O3cF9gmcGfKcvZG3Wk9Ummg)

Oh my goodness


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on October 09, 2016, 03:56:42 pm
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

(http://www.clipular.com/c/5928450020081664.png?k=YoW7O3cF9gmcGfKcvZG3Wk9Ummg)

Oh my goodness

Mondale territory?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 09, 2016, 04:44:23 pm
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

(http://www.clipular.com/c/5928450020081664.png?k=YoW7O3cF9gmcGfKcvZG3Wk9Ummg)

Oh my goodness

Mondale territory?

If he's at 70%...if he's at 79% he's probably a point worse than Bob Dole's defeat in 1996 (something like Clinton +10)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on October 09, 2016, 04:55:48 pm
Mondale was at 74%.


http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1984/


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 09, 2016, 05:33:57 pm
Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 09, 2016, 05:38:35 pm
Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 09, 2016, 05:47:29 pm
Is PPP the democratic internal poll? The twitter accounts seems quite partisan
They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Doctor Imperialism on October 09, 2016, 05:49:34 pm
https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/785179324873895939

(http://www.clipular.com/c/5928450020081664.png?k=YoW7O3cF9gmcGfKcvZG3Wk9Ummg)

Oh my goodness

Mondale territory?

Yup. Jesus ing Christ, guys, the landslide might be happening.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 09, 2016, 07:47:10 pm
Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: cinyc on October 09, 2016, 07:59:19 pm
Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: psychprofessor on October 09, 2016, 10:57:03 pm
Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.

But their methods, robo polling, has an R lean this cycle. No interviews in Spanish and no live callers, so it's not like they would methodologically favor D's.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: cinyc on October 09, 2016, 11:34:18 pm
Their polling is considered very good, and they are commissioned to do internals for quite a few campaigns.

They are very snarky and opinionated, but not partisan.

Thanks!

Every - or almost every - PPP private poll is for a Democrat or Democrat-leaning organization. When it comes to their private polling, PPP is as partisan as any pollster gets.

But their methods, robo polling, has an R lean this cycle. No interviews in Spanish and no live callers, so it's not like they would methodologically favor D's.

When selectively releasing poll info for private pollsters, it's all about the special sauce pollsters use to achieve the result.  For example, is PPP's reported result before or after pushing voters against Trump after message testing for their client?  Is the turnout model what most expect or the best-case-scenario for their client?  What state are they polling?  A state with a lot of moderate Republicans and NeverTrumpers like Utah or a state with a lot of Trump supporters?

There's also no reason a robo-poller can't poll in Spanish (press 2 for Spanish is perfectly possible), and no evidence that not polling in Spanish even matters in the state polled for their client.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Interlocutor on October 10, 2016, 12:53:59 am
Democrats quickly ramping up their internal polling across the board:


Quote
The campaign was planning to survey an array of Republican-leaning states this week, including Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and Indiana, to determine how competitive Mrs. Clinton is with Mr. Trump, according to a senior Clinton adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Sending Mrs. Clinton to those states may be of little assistance to the party’s candidates, but an infusion of money dedicated to voter turnout could ensure that she enters the White House with a solid Senate majority and help Democrats make substantial gains in the House.

Democratic strategists involved in House and Senate races said they envisioned Mr. Trump’s collapse precipitating a broad shift in the political landscape, with tossup races moving firmly into their hands, and campaigns that were once long shots suddenly becoming competitive. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee planned to do rapid polling early this week to measure the impact of Mr. Trump on the House battlefield.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/republicans-trump.html


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 10, 2016, 08:21:45 am
Democrats quickly ramping up their internal polling across the board:


Quote
The campaign was planning to survey an array of Republican-leaning states this week, including Arizona, Georgia, Missouri and Indiana, to determine how competitive Mrs. Clinton is with Mr. Trump, according to a senior Clinton adviser who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Sending Mrs. Clinton to those states may be of little assistance to the party’s candidates, but an infusion of money dedicated to voter turnout could ensure that she enters the White House with a solid Senate majority and help Democrats make substantial gains in the House.

Democratic strategists involved in House and Senate races said they envisioned Mr. Trump’s collapse precipitating a broad shift in the political landscape, with tossup races moving firmly into their hands, and campaigns that were once long shots suddenly becoming competitive. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee planned to do rapid polling early this week to measure the impact of Mr. Trump on the House battlefield.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/10/us/politics/republicans-trump.html

Clinton's internals are showing a big national lead and she wants to see how far into red territory it extends


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 10, 2016, 11:32:35 am
Mike Murphy, referencing the NBC/WSJ poll that just dropped:

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785514622547734528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 10, 2016, 12:03:30 pm
Mike Murphy, referencing the NBC/WSJ poll that just dropped:

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785514622547734528?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

"I've seen even worse numbers in internal GOP tracking"

Correlates with PPP as well... wow.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on October 10, 2016, 01:01:59 pm
https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosaDC/status/785315386111721472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Schmidt on Senate numbers from GOP internals......


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on October 10, 2016, 01:05:05 pm
https://twitter.com/MichaelLaRosaDC/status/785315386111721472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Schmidt on Senate numbers from GOP internals......

Bruh. I look forward to Senator Kander on top of Feingold.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 10, 2016, 02:03:25 pm
Quote
Dem poll taken mostly before video had Hillary up 10 in Kansas-3, pro-Romney KC burbs. Yoder now at risk.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785552978727972864


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on October 10, 2016, 02:05:36 pm
*gasp*

very spooky numbers for the GOP.

(http://i.imgur.com/CxU6n.gif)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 10, 2016, 02:07:48 pm
Quote
Dem poll taken mostly before video had Hillary up 10 in Kansas-3, pro-Romney KC burbs. Yoder now at risk.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785552978727972864

If this is accurate, even with the 5 point rule, Missouri is in play.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on October 10, 2016, 02:09:04 pm
Quote
Dem poll taken mostly before video had Hillary up 10 in Kansas-3, pro-Romney KC burbs. Yoder now at risk.

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/785552978727972864

If this is accurate, even with the 5 point rule, Missouri is in play.

The fact that Missouri may have 2 D Senators and a D Governor is quite a turn of events imo. Voting for HRC would be the icing on the cake.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Doctor Imperialism on October 11, 2016, 12:10:41 am
A former Cruz guy on another forum I post on says he got his hands on some brand-new Trump internals, via a contact in the campaign. Take these with as many grains of salt as you want, but here they are:

New Hampshire - Clinton +9
Pennsylvania - Clinton +7
Ohio - Clinton +2
Michigan - Clinton +6
Wisconsin - Clinton +4
Iowa - Trump +2
Virginia - Clinton +10
North Carolina - Clinton +5
Georgia - TIE
Florida - Clinton +4
Colorado - Clinton +7
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Clinton +3
Utah - Trump +4

Trump's support in Utah is apparently in the low 30's.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Elizabeth Warren 2020 on October 11, 2016, 12:13:48 am
If Marquette confirms these results in a few days, I'm officially pissed at WI. Disgusting.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ronnie on October 11, 2016, 12:15:51 am
If Marquette confirms these results in a few days, I'm officially pissed at WI. Disgusting.

You might be pissed at WI, but you should be absolutely elated at NC, GA and FL, all of which are states Trump cannot lose and still win the election.

Of course, I'm taking those polls with a grain of salt, but they do look plausible.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 11, 2016, 12:18:20 am
No way these would get leaked.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Doctor Imperialism on October 11, 2016, 12:34:41 am
No way these would get leaked.

Like I said, take those numbers with as many grains of salt as you want - but I think you're giving the Trump campaign a little too much credit.

According to the guy that posted these, Other/Undecided is getting a larger percentage in Utah than Trump is (they didn't include McMullin or Johnson as a separate option)

Quote
The theory the internal pollsters are running with is that people who choose "other candidate" will actually vote third party on the day - while if you list Johnson or McMullin, they will tend to get more support than they will actually get on the day.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on October 11, 2016, 07:17:38 am
I think this is a leaked internal FL poll from "conservative-leaning Associated Industries of Florida"...

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/223845-national-democrats-pull-ads-new-associated-industries-poll-shows-patrick-murphy-trailing-marco-rubio-eight

10/2-10/4

Rubio - 49
Murphy - 41

Clinton - 44
Trump - 41
Johnson - 6
Stein - 2


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 11, 2016, 07:23:35 am
Seems like there is a hispanic vote percentage voting HRC for top of the ticket and rubio for downballot


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 11, 2016, 07:39:54 am
Pre-pussygate


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 11, 2016, 08:48:59 am
A former Cruz guy on another forum I post on says he got his hands on some brand-new Trump internals, via a contact in the campaign. Take these with as many grains of salt as you want, but here they are:

New Hampshire - Clinton +9
Pennsylvania - Clinton +7
Ohio - Clinton +2
Michigan - Clinton +6
Wisconsin - Clinton +4
Iowa - Trump +2
Virginia - Clinton +10
North Carolina - Clinton +5
Georgia - TIE
Florida - Clinton +4
Colorado - Clinton +7
Arizona - Trump +1
Nevada - Clinton +3
Utah - Trump +4

Trump's support in Utah is apparently in the low 30's.


What forum is this?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on October 11, 2016, 09:55:29 am
https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785854945136353280

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  5m5 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Donald J. Trump
Actually, nope. Just saw legit private polling done AFTER DEBATE.  You are down by double digits. #YugeDisastah #BigLoser

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785856534890905600

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Robert Costa
Just saw private natl poll with Trump unfav at 66%(!)… so OK Trumpolini, teach us!  #IdiotNominee

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/785857249734385665

mike murphy ‏@murphymike  4m4 minutes ago
mike murphy Retweeted Warren Luke Tarbiat
Even worse than the -11% in the highly respected NBC/WSJ poll…



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 11, 2016, 09:57:01 am
mike murphy is out for revenge.

well, it's his own fail...if some campaign would have been able to find all those trump tapes, it would have been his own.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 11, 2016, 10:22:51 am
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/10/theres-nothing-better-than-a-scared-rich-candidate/497522/

I would take anything from Mike Murphy with a grain of salt. He completely failed Jeb. Internal national polls not really helpful either.

Quote
For instance, the super pac consistently bought broadcast-television advertising in the biggest, most expensive markets at the highest possible rates. It FedExed tabletlike mailers to New Hampshire voters that played a documentary about Bush’s life, and put just 1.4 percent of its budget toward digital ads, an abnormally tiny amount for a top super pac, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on October 11, 2016, 09:19:03 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/12/us/politics/donald-trump-gop.html

"Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has concluded that at least two traditionally Republican states, Georgia and Arizona, are realistic targets for her campaign to win over. And Republican polling has found that Mr. Trump is at dire risk of losing Georgia, according to people briefed on the polls, who spoke on the condition of anonymity."


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 12, 2016, 04:10:37 pm
DCCC supposedly has Stephanie Murphy ahead of Rep. John Mica by a 45-43 margin in FL-7, and Clinton ahead by a 47-36 margin

http://2vmhfw1isbe32j3tgn3epw3x.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/FL-07-Poll-Release-2016.10.11.pdf

Using the 5 point rule, Mica is narrowly ahead but Clinton leads by 6 in a district that has an R+4 PVI, meaning that she is in very good shape in the I-4


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 13, 2016, 02:10:57 am
From a Politico piece.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CunruNdXYAA1hyE.jpg:large)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Nhoj on October 13, 2016, 12:09:58 pm
From a Politico piece.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CunruNdXYAA1hyE.jpg:large)
I Would note that the repubs didn't have gerrymanders in pretty much every state in 08.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on October 13, 2016, 12:15:02 pm
From a Politico piece.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CunruNdXYAA1hyE.jpg:large)
I Would note that the repubs didn't have gerrymanders in pretty much every state in 08.

Plus Blue Dogs were still a thing.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 13, 2016, 01:02:38 pm


Rep. Joe Heck is still slightly ahead of Catherine Cortez Masto in the U.S. Senate race but Hillary Clinton is now significantly in front of Donald Trump in Nevada, according to a new GOP poll.

Heck is ahead 47-44 while Hillary Clinton leads 45-39. The survey, taken by the well-respected Public Opinion Strategies for the Senate Leadership Fund this week, is of 600 registered voters and has a 4 percent margin of error. (It has 21 percent Hispanic respondents.)
http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/heck-hanging-onto-lead-trump-falling-behind-in-new-gop-poll


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 13, 2016, 01:14:21 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-democrats-downballot-229718

Quote
A source close to the Clinton campaign...believes it is comfortably ahead — Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Xing on October 13, 2016, 01:18:16 pm
They're not wrong. Trump was never going to win Nevada.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 13, 2016, 01:44:53 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/hillary-clinton-democrats-downballot-229718

Quote
A source close to the Clinton campaign...believes it is comfortably ahead — Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Nevada

That would explain why Trump has consolidated to a 4 state campaign (PA, OH, NC, FL). He has to win them all. Clinton only needs one. Right now, Clinton is winning them all


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 14, 2016, 08:31:41 am
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 14, 2016, 08:32:26 am
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

Hillary Clinton has never lost South Dakota...


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 14, 2016, 08:40:09 am
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i8nlbPFxd8Yg/v0/-1x-1.png)



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 14, 2016, 08:47:57 am
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i8nlbPFxd8Yg/v0/-1x-1.png)



They're dreaming.  I can't see the third party vote breaking double digits anywhere except Utah, NM, and maybe Alaska.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 14, 2016, 08:50:52 am
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.


They're dreaming.  I can't see the third party vote breaking double digits anywhere except Utah, NM, and maybe Alaska.

Yeah, they really are. At least a month ago it would have been cute theorizing, but it's very clear in the polling that a regular 3rd party collapse is well underway.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Boston Bread on October 14, 2016, 09:03:37 am
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i8nlbPFxd8Yg/v0/-1x-1.png)


Arkansas? Oklahoma? They can't be serious.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: MasterJedi on October 14, 2016, 09:12:35 am
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-10-04/which-states-can-gary-johnson-and-jill-stein-spoil

Clarity Campaign Labs is projecting Montana to be a 1.1 Trump win. A Johnson surge or Trump collapse could move it in her favor.

(https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i8nlbPFxd8Yg/v0/-1x-1.png)


Arkansas? Oklahoma? They can't be serious.

Well if third party vote share was 16% and took exclusively from Trump it is possible but it's not anywhere close to what actually will happen.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on October 14, 2016, 09:18:00 am
Montana MAYBE. The others are insanity (and not states historically friendly to 3rd parties)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 14, 2016, 12:18:06 pm
Well, Monmouth's IN/MO poll match Clarity's expectation exactly, and the AZ margin is close to the polling average.

Considering that polling is sparse in Okalahoma/Arkansas/Montana, maybe we have to suspend our disbelief for this crazy 2016.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 14, 2016, 12:26:52 pm
Well, Monmouth's IN/MO poll match Clarity's expectation exactly, and the AZ margin is close to the polling average.

Considering that polling is sparse in Okalahoma/Arkansas/Montana, maybe we have to suspend our disbelief for this crazy 2016.

Oklahoma and Arkansas are along with West Virginia the quintessential Trump states.
It's no coincidence that they trended sharply Republican during the Obama years.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 16, 2016, 01:45:15 pm
CNN Inside Politics: Internal Republican polling has Trump trailing by double digits in PA and NH. As a result, Toomey and Ayotte also trail, but only by a few points. In NV, their polling has Trump "trailing by single digits, but Joe Heck up a little." That information is in the CNN embedded video.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/16/politics/ip-forecast-clinton-red-states-trump-down-ballot/index.html


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 16, 2016, 01:52:51 pm
Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on October 16, 2016, 02:01:48 pm
Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs
I can see that. It is where a Senior Developer and a Hospital Revenue Bureaucrat can still have 2.5 kids and still live like Republicans.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 16, 2016, 02:35:37 pm
Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

If these states' senate races were competitive then I'm pretty sure she would contest them more vigorously.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: NOVA Green on October 16, 2016, 02:47:10 pm
Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

Hmmm that's interesting strategic logic there. I understand the concept of wanting to focus time and resources on OH,FL, and NC and a lesser extent NV, but I think they might be playing it too safe in the case of AZ, which statewide polling and Trump's own internals clearly consider to be endangered, judging by his repeated recent visits to the state, and it is worth it in the long term to boost Dem turnout and infrastructure in a state that is starting to shift purple. GA, I can understand considering the structural advantages the Reps have and how difficult it is to get that extra 1% to move it across the finish line, not to mention the cost of the Atlanta media market.

However, I would trade IA for AZ any day as a medium and longer term investment.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on October 16, 2016, 04:02:39 pm
Other tidbits on AZ and GA: Clinton's team thinks they have a better shot at AZ than GA. Robby Mook doesn't want to expand the map because his thinking is to get the 270 EVs as painlessly as possible. However there are talks to plan trips to AZ and/or GA in the last week or two if their polling says they're in striking distance. They consider GA winnable but tough because the Atlanta suburbs are still behaving more like traditional GOP suburbs than the DC, Charlotte or Research Triangle suburbs

Hmmm that's interesting strategic logic there. I understand the concept of wanting to focus time and resources on OH,FL, and NC and a lesser extent NV, but I think they might be playing it too safe in the case of AZ, which statewide polling and Trump's own internals clearly consider to be endangered, judging by his repeated recent visits to the state, and it is worth it in the long term to boost Dem turnout and infrastructure in a state that is starting to shift purple. GA, I can understand considering the structural advantages the Reps have and how difficult it is to get that extra 1% to move it across the finish line, not to mention the cost of the Atlanta media market.

However, I would trade IA for AZ any day as a medium and longer term investment.

I think they care more about running up the score in PA, NH, NC, and maybe Florida to try and win the Senate races there, instead of going for AZ/GA which would look nice on the final map but don't (right now) have competitive Senate races to justify the effort.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 16, 2016, 04:05:44 pm
chelsea is going to be in arizona soon.

more like toe-dipping i guess.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 16, 2016, 05:08:49 pm
NBC article on Arizona today - nothing about internal polls but related to the posts above.

Arizona seems to be the prime candidate for playing the role Indiana did in 2008—a state that one wouldn't expect to tip over to the Democrat, but where a serious asymmetry in ground game coupled with a bad macro environment for the Republican makes for a surprise.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/donald-trump-risk-losing-arizona-state-officials-say-n667281


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devils30 on October 16, 2016, 05:14:16 pm
Ads only help very marginally and it's not like Trump is spending anything in AZ or GA either. If Hillary wins by over 7% nationally then AZ is possible and GA at maybe 8% or so. I would add an Atlanta rally because it's easy to schedule between FL and NC visits.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Alcon on October 16, 2016, 06:08:53 pm
Lake Research (D) finds Trump +1 on behalf of the Alaska Democratic Party, 500 likely voters

http://midnightsunak.com/2016/10/16/midnight-sun-exclusive-new-poll-shows-trump-clinton-tied-alaska/

Trump 37% (-1)
Clinton 36% (+6)
Johnson 7% (-4)
Stein 3% (+1)

Results as compared to 8/9-14


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 16, 2016, 06:09:56 pm
Probably something like +5, then, which sounds right.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: cinyc on October 16, 2016, 06:50:21 pm
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 16, 2016, 06:56:28 pm
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?

I don't know...I don't work for them and they haven't revealed the secret sauce recipe

Alaska amazingly will move to Lean Republican with this poll. Even taking into account that this is a Dem internal, the last four polls have been Trump by 8, 6, 3, and now 1. Each pollster (Ivan Moore Research and Lake Research) has shown a five point shift to Clinton since the first debate and the Access Hollywood tapes


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: cinyc on October 16, 2016, 07:06:39 pm
NBC moved the Dakotas and Montana to Lean Republican on their battleground map...do they have access to polling that we don't have to make that conclusion?

How does NBC define lean versus safe?

I don't know...I don't work for them and they haven't revealed the secret sauce recipe

My one question, cheap Google Consumer Research South Dakota poll that's currently in the field is only half-done, but so far, I can tell you there are no real surprises except perhaps the Johnson percentage.  It's pretty much in line with what I expected from South Dakota.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on October 16, 2016, 10:23:04 pm
https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.





Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on October 16, 2016, 10:27:27 pm
https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Minnesota Mike on October 16, 2016, 10:30:40 pm
https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.

Not an Internal. Didn't know the best place to post it and didn't think it deserved it's on thread so I figured it would be alright here.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 16, 2016, 10:31:11 pm
https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.

This doesn't seem like an internal but it does show that Clinton will romp Trump in Minnesota.

Not an Internal. Didn't know the best place to post it and didn't think it deserved it's on thread so I figured it would be alright here.

You're good. I think there is precedent for CD polls being dumped here. Good looking #s indeed.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 16, 2016, 10:32:00 pm
https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854852709679104

MN-03 CD: SUSA Poll

Clinton 48%
Trump 35%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%
Other/Undecided 11%

Obama won this district in 2012 by less than 1%.





Oof, if Clinton is winning this kind of district by 13, she will be competitive in counties like Delaware County (OH), Sheboygan (WI), and will win Northeast Iowa by the margins required to carry the state


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fargobison on October 16, 2016, 10:39:39 pm
MN must be a bloodbath if that poll is remotely on point.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Xing on October 16, 2016, 10:45:52 pm
If that's at all accurate, Paulsen is definitely in trouble.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fargobison on October 16, 2016, 10:46:25 pm
If that's at all accurate, Paulsen is definitely in trouble.

He is up by 11

Quote
KSTP/SurveyUSA: Erik Paulsen (R) leads Terri Bonoff (D) 49%-38% with 13% undecided in 3rd District congressional race.

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854665761161216


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Xing on October 16, 2016, 10:48:52 pm
If that's at all accurate, Paulsen is definitely in trouble.

He is up by 11

Quote
KSTP/SurveyUSA: Erik Paulsen (R) leads Terri Bonoff (D) 49%-38% with 13% undecided in 3rd District congressional race.

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/787854665761161216

Geez, that's a lot of ticket-splitters.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 16, 2016, 10:49:53 pm
it will be fun to figure out, which demographics, sub-cultures, regions and states are going to denounce trump the most.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: psychprofessor on October 17, 2016, 10:52:07 am
Hmmmm.....

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 9m9 minutes ago Washington, DC

Nate Cohn Retweeted Patrick Svitek

A real 'whoa if true'

Nate Cohn added,
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.
0 replies 21 retweets 52 likes


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 17, 2016, 10:55:37 am
https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on October 17, 2016, 10:56:00 am
Hmmmm.....

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 9m9 minutes ago Washington, DC

Nate Cohn Retweeted Patrick Svitek

A real 'whoa if true'

Nate Cohn added,
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.
0 replies 21 retweets 52 likes


:O. So the nightmare scenario is happening. Trump is being forced to defend Texas.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: TarHeelDem on October 17, 2016, 10:56:34 am
Hmmmm.....

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn 9m9 minutes ago Washington, DC

Nate Cohn Retweeted Patrick Svitek

A real 'whoa if true'

Nate Cohn added,
Patrick Svitek @PatrickSvitek
Just in: @HillaryClinton's campaign is launching a one-week ad buy in Texas, per an aide.
0 replies 21 retweets 52 likes

Smart move. Can't wait to see how it plays out.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 17, 2016, 10:57:42 am
http://elections.ap.org/content/ad-spending

From 9/4-9/10 they did a pointless $12k buy in Georgia... Just a troll move, more to create headlines and freak out Trump than to move numbers.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 17, 2016, 02:18:56 pm
@markzbarabak

More evidence Arizona is in play: Fresh-out-of-the-field poll by GOP firm @azhighground shows Clinton +2, suggesting effectively a toss-up.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 17, 2016, 02:20:49 pm
@markzbarabak

More evidence Arizona is in play: Fresh-out-of-the-field poll by GOP firm @azhighground shows Clinton +2, suggesting effectively a toss-up.

More likely a tilt D if that's the case.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fubart Solman on October 17, 2016, 02:55:41 pm
https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 17, 2016, 02:58:01 pm
https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.
Well educated suburb and Jones was one of the first to support Trump.

Bera isn't going to win by anywhere near that margin, but it could be around 3-4 points. I am from that district too.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 17, 2016, 03:10:42 pm
https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.

Why do Republicans think that the Iran deal is a silver bullet against Democrats?
Unless there is an abnormal number of Orthodox Jews in the district this seems like a non-issue for most voters.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 17, 2016, 03:17:31 pm
the iran deal is like benghazi 2012.

rallying up the base...not much interest with others.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: darthpi on October 17, 2016, 05:16:02 pm
https://www.scribd.com/document/327883693/CA-07-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +17 in CA-07. Obama won it by 5 points in 2008 and 4 points in 2012. Woah if true.

Did they poll anyone in Folsom? I'm from that district and I'm rather shocked to be honest. +10 for Clinton and +5 for Bera would be what I expected, but this is crazy. Both Bera and Jones have had attack ads put out against them re Jones's sexual harassment issues, Bera's father's illegal fundraising and Bera's support for the Iran deal. It is a decently educated suburban district, so maybe that plays into it? I really haven't seen that many signs for any candidate for president and only a smattering of signs for Jones.

Why do Republicans think that the Iran deal is a silver bullet against Democrats?
Unless there is an abnormal number of Orthodox Jews in the district this seems like a non-issue for most voters.

Because the leadership of the party is still stuck in 1980.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on October 17, 2016, 10:18:49 pm
https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/788215640721022976

Clinton leads Trump 44-36 in Minnesota's 2nd Cong. District according to SurveyUSA. Obama won this district by .1%.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 17, 2016, 10:50:08 pm
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 17, 2016, 10:51:34 pm
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
I doubt that many will split tickets.

Oh jesus, it could be Armageddon.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: gf20202 on October 17, 2016, 10:54:14 pm
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on October 17, 2016, 10:56:15 pm
https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/788215640721022976

Clinton leads Trump 44-36 in Minnesota's 2nd Cong. District according to SurveyUSA. Obama won this district by .1%.

terrific news!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 17, 2016, 10:57:07 pm
He added another tweet: (https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225648896667648)

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.

The 7th race is Florida (https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788226466664288256), by the way, not Wisconsin (thank god).


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 17, 2016, 10:57:49 pm
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: gf20202 on October 17, 2016, 11:03:59 pm
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.

This was his next tweet:

Quote
Of the seven races, GOP candidate holds leads betw 1-3 pts in six races... Heck down a couple in NV.

He clarified that the Wisconsin isn't among those seven, which means FL is in margin of error? Don't believe it but it would have to be that.

Bayh losing isn't losing currently in IN. The GOP's internal polling is garbage if they believe that.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Vosem on October 17, 2016, 11:08:55 pm
Per piecing together Kraushaar's replies to people, Republicans lead in 6 of the 7 races within the margin of error; the one where the Democrat leads is NV. The 6 races in question seem to be PA/NH/NC/IN/MO/FL; he repudiates someone suggesting Wisconsin saying that's not within the margin of error. Presumably Democrats are therefore pretty safely up in Illinois and Wisconsin.

So...Republican internal polling is suggesting that if the election were right now, the Democrats would gain only 2 Senate seats (IL/WI), but that with even a small push they would gain 8 (those two, plus MO/IN/NC/PA/NH/FL; he notes that the Democrats are putting up the weakest effort in FL, so presumably it would be last to flip). That would be enough to make anyone panicky.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BundouYMB on October 17, 2016, 11:09:41 pm
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225427684880388

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.
Josh K is a pretty pathetic GOP-spinning mouthpiece. They are likely in worse shape than that in those senate races.

Yeah, if this is what the GOP is spinning through sympathetic "journalists" then they really may be collapsing across the board.

This was his next tweet:

Quote
Of the seven races, GOP candidate holds leads betw 1-3 pts in six races... Heck down a couple in NV.

The Polls show Dems currently trailing in six of the seven toss-up senate races? If Rubio-Murphy isn't in the margin of error, that means that the GOP is claiming to have polling have Johnson up in WI and Bayh losing in IN. It's garbage.

As was already mentioned Josh spins as hard as possible for the GOP. Republicans tell him stuff sometimes because they know he'll uncritically repeat verbatim anything he hears from Republicans. This is basically a NSCC press release. The only notable thing is them admitting Trump is collapsing. The comments about the Senate races I take with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: gf20202 on October 17, 2016, 11:13:34 pm
Per piecing together Kraushaar's replies to people, Republicans lead in 6 of the 7 races within the margin of error; the one where the Democrat leads is NV. The 6 races in question seem to be PA/NH/NC/IN/MO/FL; he repudiates someone suggesting Wisconsin saying that's not within the margin of error. Presumably Democrats are therefore pretty safely up in Illinois and Wisconsin.

So...Republican internal polling is suggesting that if the election were right now, the Democrats would gain only 2 Senate seats (IL/WI), but that with even a small push they would gain 8 (those two, plus MO/IN/NC/PA/NH/FL; he notes that the Democrats are putting up the weakest effort in FL, so presumably it would be last to flip). That would be enough to make anyone panicky.
You have it right apparently. He said it was FL and not WI, which makes zero sense. How is Rubio only up 3 in FL and yet Bayh is losing in IN? Just proves GOP internal polling is crap if that's the case.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 18, 2016, 01:19:07 am
Yeah looks like the GOP is operating on really bad internals all over again. I guess they didn't learn anything from 2012.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 18, 2016, 06:50:52 am
I love it how the right leaning writers on twitter are retweeting this like its a good thing, when really it shows that if this election behaves the same way it has every cycle since 2006 the Democrats will probably pick up 6-8 seats. Especially with the Clinton camp reconfiguring their message to emphasize the importance of electing Democrats down ballot.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HokeyDood on October 18, 2016, 07:00:00 am
He added another tweet: (https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225648896667648)

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.

The 7th race is Florida (https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788226466664288256), by the way, not Wisconsin (thank god).

(https://images.washingtonpost.com/?url=http://img.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2015/09/Sweatingitout1.jpg&w=1484&op=resize&opt=1&filter=antialias)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 18, 2016, 07:01:06 am
He added another tweet: (https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788225648896667648)

Quote
Sr GOP source: 7 SEN races w/in margin of error, per internals, w widespread Trump collapse. Several GOPers running 10-15 pts ahead of DT.

The 7th race is Florida (https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/788226466664288256), by the way, not Wisconsin (thank god).

(https://images.washingtonpost.com/?url=http://img.washingtonpost.com/news/to-your-health/wp-content/uploads/sites/26/2015/09/Sweatingitout1.jpg&w=1484&op=resize&opt=1&filter=antialias)

Someone should give him some water.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 18, 2016, 07:41:54 am
If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Torie on October 18, 2016, 07:48:53 am
If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.

Does this theory (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/how-donald-trumps-extremism-could-help-downballot-republicans-214361) impress you at all? So far, I see little evidence myself of down ballot damage to Pubs arising from the Trump tanking.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 18, 2016, 07:50:53 am
Not too worried about the Senate, the 538 model has the Democrats chances now in the 70's to reclaim the body.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 18, 2016, 07:53:02 am
If their polls are showing huge margins for Hillary Clinton and their Republican Senate candidates within the MoE, they're assuming a large number of Republicans disaffected with Trump will show up on Election Day anyway to cast a vote against Trump and then vote R downballot. A questionable assumption.

Does this theory (http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/how-donald-trumps-extremism-could-help-downballot-republicans-214361) impress you at all? So far, I see little evidence myself of down ballot damage to Pubs arising from the Trump tanking.

Oh, I can easily imagine that Republican senators have some benefit from looking moderate next to Trump. I'm also thinking that presidential candidates aside, this election was likely to favor Republicans because Obama is coming off of two turns. The fact we're discussing D gains of only 4-5 seats with a reasonable Hillary win in a cycle where Rs are defending 24 seats to the Dems' 10 proves that. For me, it's all about who actually shows up to vote, and who stays home.  


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 18, 2016, 07:55:44 am
Not too worried about the Senate, the 538 model has the Democrats chances now in the 70's to reclaim the body.
Umm... if there's a 30% chance of rain, are you going to drive 2 hours to the beach?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 18, 2016, 12:21:20 pm
https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/788417182996783104

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvEE9-4WAAAb8_b.jpg)

Trump down 14 in New Hampshire, down 11 in Pennsylvania. Probably exaggerated BS but still.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: SunSt0rm on October 18, 2016, 12:56:25 pm
Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
Quote
f the sev­en most com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate races, Re­pub­lic­ans are cling­ing to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Flor­ida, In­di­ana, and North Car­o­lina), and barely trail­ing in a sev­enth (Nevada).

What are your thoughts? Belieavable?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 18, 2016, 01:03:13 pm
The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 18, 2016, 02:17:08 pm
The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.

It really feels like the right is trying to push this message that their Senate candidates are hanging on, which makes me think that it's starting to slip away.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on October 18, 2016, 02:42:08 pm
Clinton will win definitely East Vermont/NH by more than 10. A 14-point lead is very plausible.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on October 18, 2016, 02:42:29 pm
The Senate numbers are probably actually worse than that.

It really feels like the right is trying to push this message that their Senate candidates are hanging on, which makes me think that it's starting to slip away.

Very much so


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: RJEvans on October 18, 2016, 03:09:40 pm
Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
Quote
f the sev­en most com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate races, Re­pub­lic­ans are cling­ing to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Flor­ida, In­di­ana, and North Car­o­lina), and barely trail­ing in a sev­enth (Nevada).

What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2016, 03:16:18 pm
Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
Quote
f the sev­en most com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate races, Re­pub­lic­ans are cling­ing to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Flor­ida, In­di­ana, and North Car­o­lina), and barely trail­ing in a sev­enth (Nevada).

What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.

For President, probably both will be called immediately.  For Senate, neither.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on October 18, 2016, 03:18:45 pm
Senate republicans have shared internal polls to the National Review and some of the results are interesting

According to these polls
Clinton +14 in NH
Clinton +11 in PA
Clinton nar­rowly beats Trump in AZ
Trump +2 in MO

And senate
Quote
f the sev­en most com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate races, Re­pub­lic­ans are cling­ing to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Flor­ida, In­di­ana, and North Car­o­lina), and barely trail­ing in a sev­enth (Nevada).

What are your thoughts? Belieavable?

Question is, will NH and PA be called at poll closing? If they are, we know what type of night it's going to be.

For President, probably both will be called immediately.  For Senate, neither.

Probably,  bigger question is do the senate races get classified as too early to call or too close to call


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on October 18, 2016, 05:24:33 pm
Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

Quote
In a recent poll conducted by The Terrance Group and Lake Research Partners, we have reached 20% in key Central Plains states. Notably, we are also polling at 17% in Clinton's "home" state of New York and 12% in mountain states.



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 18, 2016, 05:26:27 pm
Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

Quote
In a recent poll conducted by The Terrance Group and Lake Research Partners, we have reached 20% in key Central Plains states. Notably, we are also polling at 17% in Clinton's "home" state of New York and 12% in mountain states.

lol


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 18, 2016, 05:26:35 pm
Got a fundraising email from Johnson today. One section of interest:

Quote
In a recent poll conducted by The Terrance Group and Lake Research Partners, we have reached 20% in key Central Plains states. Notably, we are also polling at 17% in Clinton's "home" state of New York and 12% in mountain states.

This is from the GWU poll.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 18, 2016, 05:51:23 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lok on October 18, 2016, 05:52:44 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.
RIP GOP IN GA


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 18, 2016, 05:56:12 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

(https://m.popkey.co/9c4970/eLN8Q.gif)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 18, 2016, 05:58:11 pm
i start wondering if the point of those polls is to wake up GOP base through sheer shock.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on October 18, 2016, 06:00:24 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2016, 06:05:13 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 18, 2016, 06:07:38 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Priorities USA is going up with TV and radio ads in GA


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on October 18, 2016, 06:17:06 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).

Well that's quite interesting. If Trump can't hold Romney's margins in the Atlanta exurbs, then he's probably at risk of losing Gwinnett and maybe Cobb County. There are enough potential Clinton voters to turn the state blue, but it's pretty late in the game to a make serious effort to make it happen.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 18, 2016, 06:24:21 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/788489977512333312
The PAC is going into Georgia!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Crumpets on October 18, 2016, 06:26:12 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

https://twitter.com/guycecil/status/788489977512333312
The PAC is going into Georgia!

I'm glad I don't live somewhere with segregated radio. Then again, I suppose it's one of the only ways to ensure minority groups get their fair share of air time.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 18, 2016, 06:35:15 pm
Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 18, 2016, 06:41:14 pm
Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016

If Clinton is up 10 in FL-07, that means Seminole County has gone Democratic, right?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 18, 2016, 06:42:04 pm
Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016

Even with the 5 point rule these polls indicate strength in suburban areas for Clinton. PA-16 is an R+6 district and if it is going Dem, Clinton is up by at least 10-12 points in PA. That district has a lot of rural areas in the T which you'd expect would be teabagger country


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 18, 2016, 06:43:48 pm
Clinton +10 in John Mica's district, FL-07. Mica's challenger is ahead by 3. The district was tied in 2012.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328067269/FL-07-GSG-and-Lester-for-DCCC-Oct-2016

Clinton +4 in PA-16, which Obama lost by 6 in 2012. Open seat, the GOP candidate is 3 ahead of the Dem candidate. Possible pickup opportunity.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328056923/PA-16-GBA-for-Christina-Hartman-Oct-2016

If Clinton is up 10 in FL-07, that means Seminole County has gone Democratic, right?

Yes. With the 5 point rule it is barely Republican and Trump is down 4-5 points statewide


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 18, 2016, 06:44:50 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).

Well that's quite interesting. If Trump can't hold Romney's margins in the Atlanta exurbs, then he's probably at risk of losing Gwinnett and maybe Cobb County. There are enough potential Clinton voters to turn the state blue, but it's pretty late in the game to a make serious effort to make it happen.

I think they should have been here earlier, but it just feels on the ground like she can win. I'm thinking Cherokee/Gwinnett will lose a few GOP voters (college educated/evangelical), but he's going to lose a horrific amount of support in Rubio country (Fulton/Dekalb). Even though that's not his base, it's a lot of votes. Lots of moderate Republicans I know refuse to vote for Trump.

http://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do
Kind of hard to use since they split the counties, but...below are the vote in person numbers as well as D-R margin and vote count. I'll try and figure out how to make a script to combine them to be easily pivotable, but for now, just went into each file...

(Obama-romney) 2012 votes

7.0K in Fulton (64-35) 390K
7.6K in Dekalb (78-21) 305K
1.6K in Gwinnett (45-54) 295K
3.7K in Cobb (43-55) 309K
3.5K in Forsyth (18-81) 82K

It does seem like Forsyth is punching above its weight relative to its low population.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2016, 07:09:31 pm
Erick Erickson ‏@EWErickson  4m4 minutes ago
Washington Post has Clinton up 4 in Georgia.  Internal GOP polling has her up 5 in Georgia.

I really wanna believe it... but the Clinton campaign has clearly signaled that the state isn't worth the time and effort. I'd like to see a quality public pollster release something.

Anecdotally: I voted after work today in Forsyth County.  There was no wait, and perhaps a third of the voting machines were occupied.  The poll worker I asked said they'd had a steady stream, but it never got busy enough to require a line.  For comparison, when I voted early in 2012 there was a very long backup (same county, but different location).

Well that's quite interesting. If Trump can't hold Romney's margins in the Atlanta exurbs, then he's probably at risk of losing Gwinnett and maybe Cobb County. There are enough potential Clinton voters to turn the state blue, but it's pretty late in the game to a make serious effort to make it happen.

I think they should have been here earlier, but it just feels on the ground like she can win. I'm thinking Cherokee/Gwinnett will lose a few GOP voters (college educated/evangelical), but he's going to lose a horrific amount of support in Rubio country (Fulton/Dekalb). Even though that's not his base, it's a lot of votes. Lots of moderate Republicans I know refuse to vote for Trump.

http://elections.sos.ga.gov/Elections/voterabsenteefile.do
Kind of hard to use since they split the counties, but...below are the vote in person numbers as well as D-R margin and vote count. I'll try and figure out how to make a script to combine them to be easily pivotable, but for now, just went into each file...

(Obama-romney) 2012 votes

7.0K in Fulton (64-35) 390K
7.6K in Dekalb (78-21) 305K
1.6K in Gwinnett (45-54) 295K
3.7K in Cobb (43-55) 309K
3.5K in Forsyth (18-81) 82K

It does seem like Forsyth is punching above its weight relative to its low population.

One factor is probably that Forsyth makes it very easy to vote early.  There are five early voting locations (compared to one in Gwinnett, which has four times the population) with extensive hours: 8am-6pm Mon-Fri this week and next week, then 7am-7pm on Saturday the 29th and the following Mon-Fri.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 18, 2016, 07:33:36 pm
It's a disgrace what they're doing in Gwinnett, just 1 in Lawrenceville for the whole county (not surprisingly, most of the early voters are from Lawrenceville).

http://www.tomnash.eu/how-to-combine-multiple-csv-files-into-one-using-cmd/
So I figured out how to combine the CSV files and did some analysis on it. Simply, ballot status A (accepted), comparing 2016 vote totals to 2012 final count. Obviously simple analysis that doesn't take into consideration of current voter registration.

Fulton is at 12.6K (now that I counted accepted mail), 3.2% of 2012
Dekalb at 4%
Cobb at 3.3%
Gwinnett at 2.3% (disastrous 1 voting site)
Forsyth is 6%
Clayton's at 3.4%
Muscogee is 4.1%
Columbia is 4.8%
Henry is 3.1%
Hall is 4.5%
Cherokee is 2.8%.

Overall, IF access is there, Republicans are doing better (Forsyth). Otherwise kind of mixed.

Also, I took each county's 2012 D/R margin, applied it to current county vote totals and came up with Trump 55% Clinton 44%. Hopefully as in person early voting ramps up this gap closes.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 18, 2016, 07:46:03 pm
It's a disgrace what they're doing in Gwinnett, just 1 in Lawrenceville for the whole county (not surprisingly, most of the early voters are from Lawrenceville).

http://www.tomnash.eu/how-to-combine-multiple-csv-files-into-one-using-cmd/
So I figured out how to combine the CSV files and did some analysis on it. Simply, ballot status A (accepted), comparing 2016 vote totals to 2012 final count. Obviously simple analysis that doesn't take into consideration of current voter registration.

Fulton is at 12.6K (now that I counted accepted mail), 3.2% of 2012
Dekalb at 4%
Cobb at 3.3%
Gwinnett at 2.3% (disastrous 1 voting site)
Forsyth is 6%
Clayton's at 3.4%
Muscogee is 4.1%
Columbia is 4.8%
Henry is 3.1%
Hall is 4.5%
Cherokee is 2.8%.

Overall, IF access is there, Republicans are doing better (Forsyth). Otherwise kind of mixed.

Also, I took each county's 2012 D/R margin, applied it to current county vote totals and came up with Trump 55% Clinton 44%. Hopefully as in person early voting ramps up this gap closes.

I think error will creep in because of the bolded part, although I confess I don't know what else you could do that's better.  I expect the proportions to change significantly in some counties, partly due to demographic shifts and party due to Trump's unique (non-)appeal to certain groups.  Forsyth was 80/18 for Romney, but I really doubt that Trump will hit 70 here.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Griff on October 18, 2016, 08:03:21 pm
Yes, Forsyth is very willing to make early voting easy, because, you know...all the 'right' people live there. It also has very high turnout and voter registration rates overall (the latter is the highest in the state as a share of CVAP, at over 90%), so it'd only make sense that its early voting numbers are huge. Early voting is so predominant now that the difference between early and election day groups usually isn't very meaningful in counties like Forsyth.

The way it usually goes is that the first few days of early voting appear to be as Republican (or even more so) than the state as a whole, but Democrats gradually increase their share of the vote day-by-day. By the end of early voting, the early vote demographics make things look better than they'll actually be once ED votes are counted.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 19, 2016, 08:02:53 am
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109052487.html

Clinton up 30 in Miami-Dade (58-28), 6 points wider than in 2012 (62-38).

Clinton’s spread over Trump is “the most that any Democrat has ever gotten, dating back to the 2000 election


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 19, 2016, 08:09:13 am
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109052487.html

Clinton up 30 in Miami-Dade (58-28), 6 points wider than in 2012 (62-38).

Clinton’s spread over Trump is “the most that any Democrat has ever gotten, dating back to the 2000 election

That would be a swing of almost 60K voters to the Democrats, since around 880K voted in Miami-Dade in 2012


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 19, 2016, 09:01:41 am
https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/788739385810362372
http://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/press-releases/new-hmp-polls-democrats-on-offense-across-the-country

Clarity Campaign Labs polls not sure if they're posted here yet. I compared it to here http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

CA-10: Clinton 41 Trump 40 (Obama 51 Romney 47)
IL-10: Clinton 53 Trump 30 (Obama 58 Romney 41)
KS-03: Clinton 44 35 (Obama 44 Romney 54)
ME-02: Clinton 39 Trump 39 (Obama 53 Romney 44)
MN-03: Clinton 47 Trump 28 (Obama 50 Romney 49)
MN-08: Clinton 38 Trump 39 (Obama 52 Romney 46)



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on October 19, 2016, 09:09:19 am

With 2012 results (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections)

CA-10: Clinton 41 Trump 40 // OBAMA +3.6
IL-10: Clinton 53 Trump 30 // OBAMA +16.4
KS-03: Clinton 44 35 (48-38 2 way) // ROMNEY +9.5
ME-02: Clinton 39 Trump 39 // OBAMA +8.5
MN-03: Clinton 47 Trump 28 // OBAMA +0.8
MN-08: Clinton 38 Trump 39 // OBAMA +5.5


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devils30 on October 19, 2016, 09:11:48 am
Confirms what I suspect, that Trump may win MN-8 but be more than offset by Democratic gains in MN-2,3


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 19, 2016, 09:31:08 am
https://twitter.com/jhagner/status/788739385810362372
http://www.thehousemajoritypac.com/news/press-releases/new-hmp-polls-democrats-on-offense-across-the-country

Clarity Campaign Labs polls not sure if they're posted here yet. I compared it to here http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections

CA-10: Clinton 41 Trump 40 (Obama 51 Romney 47)
IL-10: Clinton 53 Trump 30 (Obama 58 Romney 41)
KS-03: Clinton 44 35 (Obama 44 Romney 54)
ME-02: Clinton 39 Trump 39 (Obama 53 Romney 44)
MN-03: Clinton 47 Trump 28 (Obama 50 Romney 49)
MN-08: Clinton 38 Trump 39 (Obama 52 Romney 46)


For readability

CA-10: Clinton +1 / Obama +4
IL-10: Clinton +23/ Obama +17
KS-03: Clinton +9/ Romney +10
ME-02: Tie / Obama +9
MN-03: Clinton +19/ Obama +1
MN-08: Trump +1/ Obama+6


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Former GM 1184AZ on October 19, 2016, 09:25:21 pm
In an Democratic internal poll conducted between October 10-11 of ME-2, Trump and Clinton are tied at 39%, 14% for other and 7% undecided.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328156011/ME-02-Clarity-Campaign-Labs-for-House-Majority-PAC-Oct-2016 (https://www.scribd.com/document/328156011/ME-02-Clarity-Campaign-Labs-for-House-Majority-PAC-Oct-2016)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 20, 2016, 02:42:39 pm
Clinton +5 in CA-25, which Obama lost by 2 in 2012. Steven Knight's challenger is only 2 points behind.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328309922/CA-25-Tulchin-Research-for-the-DCCC-Oct-2016


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 20, 2016, 02:46:37 pm
All these internals are showing huge swings to Clinton in California. She could end up winning the state by 30 points.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Interlocutor on October 20, 2016, 03:02:23 pm
All these internals are showing huge swings to Clinton in California. She could end up winning the state by 30 points.

Wouldn't doubt that at all. Shes gonna rack up huge margins up and down the state


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 20, 2016, 04:11:52 pm
I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 20, 2016, 04:15:16 pm
If I'm seeing a pattern here, internal polls seem to be even more optimistic about Hillary's chances.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 20, 2016, 04:16:24 pm
I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 20, 2016, 04:18:10 pm
I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 20, 2016, 04:20:06 pm
I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

Wikipedia, Nevada's 4th CD. Easy


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: cinyc on October 20, 2016, 04:21:25 pm
I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

My Google-fu is better than your Google-fu.  The first thing I found after Googling 'presidential vote by congressional district' was this:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/19/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-the-2012-2008-elections


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 20, 2016, 04:21:48 pm
I hope I didn't miss it already being posted, but the DCCC dropped an NV-04 internal in which Clinton leads Trump 47/38 (+9). Having a hard time getting the exact numbers on how NV-04 has previously voted.

http://dccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/10192016-NV04-Polling-Memo.pdf

Obama won it by 11, so Clinton still needs to pick up her pace here, considering the 5 point rule

Gotcha. Do you have a subscription with Dave's atlas or did you get the CD info another way? I couldn't find it with brief google-fu.

Wikipedia, Nevada's 4th CD. Easy

Ha! That's pretty funny. Looks like I went over-specific in my hunt. Oh well, thanks a bunch!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 21, 2016, 07:54:52 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
Quote
Randy Evans, a Republican National committeeman from Georgia, said he’s skeptical that the debate was truly a flashpoint in the race for Clinton. He said early vote numbers indicate a higher proportion of votes from rural areas than four years ago, with lighter numbers in urban areas, suggesting a potential tilt toward Trump.

“I’m not gonna pretend, with this electorate, to have the crystal ball,” he said, citing internal polls he’s seen giving Trump a 4- to 6-point edge.

Basically confirming the recent Georgia polls we've seen.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: psychprofessor on October 21, 2016, 08:21:56 pm
Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on October 21, 2016, 08:30:12 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
Quote
Randy Evans, a Republican National committeeman from Georgia, said he’s skeptical that the debate was truly a flashpoint in the race for Clinton. He said early vote numbers indicate a higher proportion of votes from rural areas than four years ago, with lighter numbers in urban areas, suggesting a potential tilt toward Trump.

“I’m not gonna pretend, with this electorate, to have the crystal ball,” he said, citing internal polls he’s seen giving Trump a 4- to 6-point edge.

Basically confirming the recent Georgia polls we've seen.

Yea, there is a reason Dems arent going into Georgia like Arizona


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 21, 2016, 08:31:55 pm
Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2016, 08:33:38 pm
Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 21, 2016, 08:34:40 pm
Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.

He isn't talking about a swing state, he talking about the election in general.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Alcon on October 21, 2016, 08:38:09 pm
Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.

He isn't talking about a swing state, he talking about the election in general.

Fair enough, but even if he's not talking about Florida, 100% still seems like hyperbole to me.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on October 21, 2016, 08:40:26 pm
Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

David Plouffe, Obama campaign manager, said Hillary has "100%" chance of winning. Democrat internals are very data-analytic so their words should be weighted heavily even if biased.

I don't think anyone should be taken seriously when they project a 100% chance to win a swing state.
I don't think anything a partisan on either side of the aisle should be taken seriously when it comes to electoral predictions. Of course their candidate is going to win.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on October 21, 2016, 10:15:04 pm
Not internal polling per se, but a good deep dive into the Florida operation by former Obama state organizer Steve Schale. He seems to think Florida is a lock for Clinton by 4-5 points, down ballot could be interesting:

http://steveschale.squarespace.com/blog/2016/10/21/18-days-out-are-dems-gonna-dem.html

Fun fact: Steve Schale is Florida Man


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on October 22, 2016, 09:30:05 am
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 22, 2016, 09:39:27 am
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Please please please let this be true.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on October 22, 2016, 09:40:52 am
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Please please please let this be true.

So, if this is true, we are looking at a 1988 margin?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on October 22, 2016, 09:41:31 am
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devils30 on October 22, 2016, 09:57:34 am
Indiana is an elastic state so it's not shocking to see it move in the final weeks more than Georgia.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: psychprofessor on October 22, 2016, 09:59:22 am
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 22, 2016, 10:00:32 am
Don't buy that kind of internal margin. Way more GOP opportunists would have run for the hills. That margin could happen Akin style, but I don't believe that the GOP sees it right now.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on October 22, 2016, 10:01:32 am
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
With Heck not supporting Drumpf and Ayotte and Toomey swimming upstream, does this mean SML Schumer?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 22, 2016, 10:07:56 am
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"

Holcomb and Young are so done if this is true.

would be hard to see toomey and ayotte overcome this drag on the top of the ticket as well
With Heck not supporting Drumpf and Ayotte and Toomey swimming upstream, does this mean SML Schumer?

Yes.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ExtremeConservative on October 22, 2016, 10:18:16 am
I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 10:21:42 am
i think, they want to motivate their voters to do something against APOCALYPSE.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 22, 2016, 10:22:49 am
I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

I think they are trying to get the warning out that things are collapsing. Look at past results, lots of time the dam doesn't break out until the last couple weeks.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 22, 2016, 10:24:48 am
I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

From what I understand about the psychology of polling, you want your party members to think things are close but not doomed. Too large a deficit and people could get demoralized.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 22, 2016, 11:09:46 am
I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 22, 2016, 11:35:50 am
I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.

Maybe not.  It might be a subtle way of distancing themselves from Trump without explicitly disavowing him, which would cause problems with his base.  This sends the message that Trump is going to lose, with the implicit point that GOP voters need to stick with their down-ballot candidates to act as a check on President Clinton.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: OneJ on October 22, 2016, 11:36:18 am
Oh this is getting good!

Twitter Link: https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/789834943304118273


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on October 22, 2016, 12:14:14 pm
John Harwood tweet:

senior GOP Senate strategist: "Trump now tied in Indiana. down 11 in PA and 14 in NH. going down hard"
John Harwood. You may as well be quoting Baghdad Bob. Complete utter DNC shill. Wikileaks proved it.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 12:17:31 pm

John Harwood. You may as well be quoting Baghdad Bob. Complete utter DNC shill. Wikileaks proved it.

just spreading the same quotes shared by more rep-friendly journalists.

seems more like a tactical message from rep-establishment.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 22, 2016, 12:27:10 pm
I think I figured out why these internals are so pro-Democratic, relative to the other polls.  Basically, the Democrats are operating normally, showing polls favorable to them.  But, elite Republicans almost want a disaster to prove how bad Trump is, so they are leaking their worst internals.

They also want to retain the Senate and the House. Leaking these type of numbers don't help that cause.

Maybe not.  It might be a subtle way of distancing themselves from Trump without explicitly disavowing him, which would cause problems with his base.  This sends the message that Trump is going to lose, with the implicit point that GOP voters need to stick with their down-ballot candidates to act as a check on President Clinton.

I would agree with this if the numbers they were providing weren't so dire. I mean they are saying that Trump is down double digits in NH and PA, it almost impossible for Ayotte and Toomey to overcome that.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 22, 2016, 12:49:27 pm
Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on October 22, 2016, 12:52:57 pm
Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.

Another tweet in response to Murphy's chances to win:

Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 12:54:49 pm
margins favorable to Hillary, i suppose?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 22, 2016, 12:58:37 pm
margins favorable to Hillary, i suppose?

That's what he said in a later reply, but he refused to give details when asked.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on October 22, 2016, 12:58:55 pm
Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.

You'd think at least one Florida poll would've captured this if it was true. Clinton up 4 is definitely great for a state like Florida, but from the hyperbolic tone of that tweet you'd think it meant she was up double digits there or something. Unless said swing districts are being offset in safe districts.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: yeah_93 on October 22, 2016, 01:00:31 pm
Quote
Steve Schale ‏@steveschale  6m6 minutes ago Tallahassee, FL
Steve Schale Retweeted John Harwood
I've seen some HRC/DJT numbers in Florida bellwether down ballot districts that are shocking. Margins that are hard to get head around.

You'd think at least one Florida poll would've captured this if it was true. Clinton up 4 is definitely great for a state like Florida, but from the hyperbolic tone of that tweet you'd think it meant she was up double digits in the state or something. Unless said swing districts are being offset in safe districts.
My guess is that Trump's overperforming in the panhandle? Maybe the swing map is something like the 2014 gubernatorial one.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 22, 2016, 01:06:09 pm
Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Hammy on October 22, 2016, 01:27:30 pm
Are these GOP internals?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 22, 2016, 01:29:01 pm
I'll believe it when I see it, but... wow.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on October 22, 2016, 01:29:13 pm
Are these GOP internals?

Yeah, I think the New Hampshire one is the one from a week or so ago from the Ayotte campaign? Unless there was another internal with her up 14 in New Hampshire.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 22, 2016, 01:52:47 pm
PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fargobison on October 22, 2016, 01:54:28 pm
Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.

His dad can always cut him another check.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 22, 2016, 01:58:11 pm
PPP when asked if Hillary is going to win: Yes
To a Trump supporter: I think November 9th is going to be a rough day for you Gary

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789821571359711232


I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/789895377600319488


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on October 22, 2016, 02:16:50 pm


I'm happy to hear them say that the undecideds that they are polling feel the same about both candidates, but generally like Obama's direction. That's a good sign.


Yep, and it disproves Bill Mitchell's "Monster Vote" Theory.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 22, 2016, 06:50:58 pm
Quote
But it was not until after a video surfaced Oct. 7 showing Trump bragging in a 2005 “Access Hollywood” interview about sexually assaulting women that Clinton’s advisers decided to make late investments.

Private polls reviewed by Clinton strategists showed Democratic Senate and gubernatorial candidates rising in Indiana and Missouri. The Clinton team concluded that in Missouri, for instance, a well-funded ground game to turn out African Americans could be the deciding factor.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/buoyed-by-rising-polls-clinton-shifts-to-a-new-target-the-house-and-senate/2016/10/22/9c717070-97c3-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 22, 2016, 07:06:44 pm
If Indiana is actually that close, they should send Bernie over there.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 22, 2016, 07:23:48 pm
Quote
Hillary Clinton is pouring $1 million into Indiana and Missouri in the campaign’s final weeks — not because the Democratic presidential nominee thinks she can carry those reliably Republican states, but because she believes that, with an extra push, Democrats can win the Senate and governors’ races there.

It seems like they see the Senate/governor's race have a winnable race, but need extra push in the cities... but they don't expect/plan to win the whole state.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Young Conservative on October 22, 2016, 09:01:16 pm
Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
Murphy has a good amount of money, but the GOP donors are giving majorly to Rubio. He's still a GOP star.



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 09:03:39 pm
rubio is too important for the party to lose.

if he disappears from the senate, he could be dead for 2020.....not likely.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 23, 2016, 06:31:27 am

Quote
Steve Schale
‏@steveschale
@trowaman @DemFromCT @JohnJHarwood if he can find some cash, he can win. DSCC pulling out is mindnumbing


Wasn't Murphy supposed to be a prodigious fundraiser?
I know Florida is a money pit but still he should have enough money to get his message out.
Murphy has a good amount of money, but the GOP donors are giving majorly to Rubio. He's still a GOP star.



Of course, a man without principles is always a valuable commodity among the Republican donor class.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on October 23, 2016, 09:34:27 am
I think the DSCC wants to defeat Rubio, but wants to get to 50 seats even more, and they see IN, MO and NC as easer paths (outside of the conventional IL/WI/PA/NH). They probably think defeating Rubio would be really expensive, and it would be, but they're downplaying his vulnerability. Oh well.

If anything wins the day for Murphy, it'll be Clinton's ground game  (and Trump's lack of one), but I think the Clinton campaign really doesn't care about getting Clinton/Rubio voters to the polls.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 23, 2016, 07:35:44 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/early-voting-women-battleground-states-230176
Quote
Randy Evans, a Republican National committeeman from Georgia, said he’s skeptical that the debate was truly a flashpoint in the race for Clinton. He said early vote numbers indicate a higher proportion of votes from rural areas than four years ago, with lighter numbers in urban areas, suggesting a potential tilt toward Trump.

“I’m not gonna pretend, with this electorate, to have the crystal ball,” he said, citing internal polls he’s seen giving Trump a 4- to 6-point edge.

Basically confirming the recent Georgia polls we've seen.

Yea, there is a reason Dems arent going into Georgia like Arizona

It looks like North GA is voting early a lot. Excess of retired cabin retirees?

https://public.tableau.com/profile/john8765#!/vizhome/2016EarlyVotingasof102216/Dashboard
 (https://public.tableau.com/profile/john8765#!/vizhome/2016EarlyVotingasof102216/Dashboard)(https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-0VIxmLCJHrk/WA1TCkkpv6I/AAAAAAAAaPI/P_wtQdiY9UMlWCZ5s8z9Ft3uMWI6wg4BACLcB/s1600/Georgia%2BEarly%2BVoting%2B10-22-16.png)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: politicallefty on October 23, 2016, 07:46:02 pm
If anything wins the day for Murphy, it'll be Clinton's ground game  (and Trump's lack of one), but I think the Clinton campaign really doesn't care about getting Clinton/Rubio voters to the polls.

I was watching one of the MSNBC shows this past week and that seems to be the viewpoint from the national party. Basically. FL-Sen will fall if Hillary wins by enough and Rubio wins if it's closer. In other words, there's not much that can be done in terms of the air game. A lot is really dependent on the ground game. If Hillary can win Florida by about 5%, her superior ground game could be enough to take him out, but there really is no margin for error. Things need to go very right for Murphy to to win.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ExtremeConservative on October 23, 2016, 11:57:45 pm
Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Arch on October 24, 2016, 12:17:23 am
Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

So, following the 5-point rule, he's at the edge in GA and losing AZ and OH. Not buying UT or TX, and IN+6 is about expected.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 24, 2016, 12:24:58 am
Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ExtremeConservative on October 24, 2016, 12:27:46 am
Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 24, 2016, 12:28:15 am
Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

Those are junk Reuters polls.

Just saw a Trump supporter sharing them on Facebook, so I thought I would post them here.

Maybe attempt to verify first?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 24, 2016, 12:46:14 am
Check this Caporale guy's twitter. He's literally just retweeting Reuters/Ipsos polls.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fargobison on October 24, 2016, 05:02:22 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvkJeoTUMAACCir.jpg)

https://twitter.com/7im/status/790673637946732544


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 24, 2016, 05:03:47 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvkJeoTUMAACCir.jpg)

https://twitter.com/7im/status/790673637946732544

Fascinating.  How do we apply the 5-point rule in a 3-way race?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 24, 2016, 05:08:32 pm
Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 24, 2016, 05:11:30 pm
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CvkJeoTUMAACCir.jpg)

https://twitter.com/7im/status/790673637946732544

Is this result for the district or statewide?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: King Francis I on October 24, 2016, 05:12:38 pm
Internal for Shelli Yoder in IN-09 has Trump +10. Romney won it by 17 in 2012, McCain by 9 in 2008.

https://www.scribd.com/document/328736169/IN-09-Garin-Hart-Yang-for-Shelli-Yoder-Oct-2016
Nah, Mccain won it by 6 points for the record.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on October 24, 2016, 05:13:51 pm
Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 24, 2016, 05:15:01 pm
Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Classic Conservative on October 24, 2016, 05:17:16 pm
Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 24, 2016, 05:18:06 pm
Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

What do you do with McMullin?  They have him tied with Trump. 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 24, 2016, 05:22:50 pm
If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney
lolno

Romney won Utah 4 by 37 points.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 24, 2016, 05:24:13 pm
Is this result for the district or statewide?

Just the district.

Can we extrapolate a statewide result from that?
If you add +5 since it's a D internal. It would be Trump +15 so Trump maybe is one or two points behind Romney

If Trump is lagging Romney even by one or two points in the Rust Belt he loses


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on October 24, 2016, 05:25:28 pm
Some Trump internals from Justin Caporale?

Indiana: Trump +11
Utah: Trump +11 (no McMullin asked??)
Texas: Trump +13
Ohio: TIE
Arizona: Trump +2
Georgia: Trump +8

There are Reuters polls.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 25, 2016, 07:25:52 am
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 25, 2016, 07:32:02 am
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/790887012622565377

Jonathan Martin from the NYT reports that the Upshot/Siena poll of NC poll showing Clinton up 7 mirrors private GOP polling.

How did GOP internals get so accurate? These guys were predicting Romney landslide.

Or are they over-compensating for their embarrassment in 2012?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 25, 2016, 07:34:56 am
I have suspicious about private polls and wonder if they just make them up and feed them to reporters to advance their Never Trump agenda, but it does make its way to newspapers.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 25, 2016, 10:43:46 am
"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 25, 2016, 10:47:07 am
"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712
Ruh-roh.

And those are internals!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on October 25, 2016, 10:53:35 am
So, what we see is probably what we get with a week and change left.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 25, 2016, 11:37:44 am
"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 25, 2016, 11:41:54 am
"Confidential memo from GOP-leaning group on the race in Fla.: "We’ve found Clinton with a consistent 3% - 5% lead."



https://twitter.com/aaronzitner/status/790875512684019712

That twitter feed is hilarious. These Trump supporters are in for a rude awakening on November 8th.

The mocking these folks deserve...


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 25, 2016, 05:13:54 pm
John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 25, 2016, 06:02:27 pm
John HarwoodVerified account
‏@JohnJHarwood
top GOP pollster: "What we're seeing is Johnson and Stein trending down, and going to Clinton."

I saw an article today that millennials are coming home for Clinton more and more, which dovetails nicely with what you said.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 26, 2016, 10:12:17 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on October 26, 2016, 10:38:47 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This was obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 26, 2016, 10:42:31 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago Manhattan, NY
top GOP pollster on Bloomberg Poll showing Trump +2 in FL: "such an outlier, I'm not going to believe it until confirmed by other surveys"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
second top GOP pollster on Bloomberg's +2 Trump poll in FL: "not correct"

This obvious just by looking at the early voting numbers. Selzer is a good pollster, but their LV screen is failing them here.
Selzer has overestimated Trump this whole cycle, starting with the Iow caucuses.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Sorenroy on October 27, 2016, 06:22:45 am
Anyone know of any recent internals from Texas?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 27, 2016, 08:21:34 am
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/inside-the-trump-bunker-with-12-days-to-go

Trump’s team... built a model, the “Battleground Optimizer Path to Victory,” to weight and rank the states that the data team believes are most critical to amassing the 270 electoral votes Trump needs to win the White House. On Oct. 18 they rank as follows:

1. Florida
2. Ohio
3. Pennsylvania
4. North Carolina
5. Georgia


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 27, 2016, 10:19:36 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  10m10 minutes ago
GOP Senate strategist on Roy Blunt's precarious fate in MO: "1% race. think he wins"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 27, 2016, 09:54:46 pm


At a fundraiser for Brad Ashford tonight, Xavier Becerra said that he saw a poll showing Clinton +1 in Texas.
https://twitter.com/davesund/status/791832331170353152?lang=en


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: psychprofessor on October 27, 2016, 10:01:00 pm


At a fundraiser for Brad Ashford tonight, Xavier Becerra said that he saw a poll showing Clinton +1 in Texas.
https://twitter.com/davesund/status/791832331170353152?lang=en

Perhaps Trump needs to spend some time in the Mountain/SouthWest: AZ, UT, TX...who would have guessed these states would be +1, +3, +3 twelve days before election day?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 27, 2016, 10:02:31 pm
Perhaps Trump needs to spend some time in the Mountain/SouthWest: AZ, UT, TX...who would have guessed these states would be +1, +3, +3 twelve days before election day?

even if hillary loses all of them...not really ulikely.....team trump will have spent an amazing amount of their scarce ressources defending them....


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ronnie on October 27, 2016, 11:30:16 pm
Plus, I'm pretty sure that Trump campaigning in Utah would actually diminish his numbers there.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 28, 2016, 07:50:46 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  8m8 minutes ago
top D pollster: "changes incredibly exaggerated. some tightening. Trump fav better"

top R pollster: "some narrowing, not that significant"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on October 28, 2016, 07:54:58 am
We've clearly seen this season that if Trump goes 7 days without feuding with a Khizr Khan or Alicia Machado, some Republican voters' embarrassment fades and they "rally 'round" their candidate.

Clinton's going to win regardless, it's just about some Senate and House races at this point.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 28, 2016, 08:10:21 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago
GOP pollster #2: as since March, Trump in 38%-42% range, Clinton 44%-48%. currently Trump in middle, Clinton in upper half. margin 6-7 pts


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on October 28, 2016, 08:18:34 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  5m5 minutes ago
GOP pollster #2: as since March, Trump in 38%-42% range, Clinton 44%-48%. currently Trump in middle, Clinton in upper half. margin 6-7 pts

So what is most expected is a 4 to 6 point race....about 48 to 42. Maybe third parties will take 6 or 7 percent and leave 2 or 3% undecided. I expect 49-44-3-2-1-1


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 28, 2016, 08:43:12 am
Another event could swing both to the extremes, Trump@38, Clinton @48.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 28, 2016, 08:47:39 am
I would be very happy with a 7 to 8 point lead, but a victory is a victory.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 28, 2016, 09:54:03 am
Not really an internal. PPP has a poll of FL for an anti-gun violence group:

http://www.politico.com/states/f/?id=00000158-0ab5-d236-ad5d-dab74e5e0001

Clinton 48
Trump 44

Murphy and Rubio tied at 46


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 29, 2016, 10:24:17 am
Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 10:29:08 am
Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

If he did see, would he tell us about it? :)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 29, 2016, 10:31:01 am
If he did see, would he tell us about it? :)

all polls are rigged, eh? ;)



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 10:38:14 am
If he did see, would he tell us about it? :)

all polls are rigged, eh? ;)



Just partisan ones.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 29, 2016, 10:46:44 am
Just partisan ones.

they are doing all the CNBC polls.....take from that what you want.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on October 29, 2016, 01:55:10 pm
Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ReapSow on October 29, 2016, 02:25:12 pm
Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

Ten days left, support for both candidates is mostly locked in, Clinton is dominating the early vote, and Trump hasn't closed the gap with Women, Hispanics, Blacks, Millennials, etc. to the point he needs to win. Republicans want and need Comeygate to bring Hillary down, but it seems to be wishful thinking at this point considering she had a consistent lead during the original email investigation and the narrative has changed from "case re-opened" to "Comey screwed up." The race is tightening, but do Trump sheep honestly think a b.s. news story is going to peel away millions of supporters from Clinton considering they already distrust her?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 29, 2016, 07:09:35 pm
Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 29, 2016, 07:10:29 pm
Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

We've had zero numbers in any way, other than positive early voting numbers like usual. The white knuckles around here have been ridiculous.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: NOVA Green on October 29, 2016, 07:20:22 pm
Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

We've had zero numbers in any way, other than positive early voting numbers like usual. The white knuckles around here have been ridiculous.

Yawn.... this seems like yet another media event for a few days based upon a lack of real news to talk about.

There aren't very many undecided voters out there anymore, and most Americans are tired about hearing yet another BS story, about Clinton's emails and server.

The only people that really care about it are a small handful of Trump supporters, desperately grasping for any straw in reach to suck down the last sip of their Tequila Sunrise, before they need to order a Tequila Sunset in the closing hours at 2 AM. (Made this a few times before, and its actually a pretty good drink)

http://www.food.com/recipe/tequila-sunset-449518


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on October 29, 2016, 09:05:28 pm
Geoff Garin says he was in the field last night polling and saw no negative impact against Clinton from Comeygate

https://twitter.com/geoffgarin/status/792376273460924416

It doesn't surprise me someone who had Bruce Braley ahead in the final week wouldn't see movement.

You seem to girding your loins for some kind of crash ... which I just don't think is going to happen.

I don't know if I'd use the word "crash", but I do expect her to take a significant hit in the averages once the next batch of post email polls are dropped. We'll see soon enough. Hopefully you're right and I'm not.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on October 31, 2016, 08:40:26 am
Republican pollster North Star Opinion Research finds Don Bacon (R) leading Rep. Brad Ashford (D) 48-44 in NE-2:

Quote
Republican polling shows the party's chances improving in Nebraska's 2nd District, one of the GOP's three top opportunities to knock off a Democratic incumbent this year.

Retired Brig. Gen. Don Bacon led incumbent Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford 48 to 44 percent among registered voters in a North Star Opinion Research poll, shared first with Roll Call. The poll was conducted Oct. 22-24 for the Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC tied to House GOP leadership. The fund has invested $950,000 on TV and digital in the Omaha-based district.

Trump also leads Clinton by 4 points:

Quote
In the presidential race, Republican Donald Trump led Democratic rival Hillary Clinton 44 to 40 percent in the district, with 8 percent supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson and 2 percent backing the Green Party's Jill Stein.

I'd say this is pretty good for Clinton considering it's a Republican internal with her trailing by as much as Ashford.

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/gop-poll-gives-don-bacon-late-edge-rare-pickup-opportunity-nebraska-brad-ashford-house?utm_content=buffer72397&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 31, 2016, 08:55:00 am
ME-2 or NE-2 both look close. It'd be amusing if they both flipped and canceled each other out.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 31, 2016, 08:43:34 pm
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/01/us/politics/hillary-clinton-campaign.html

Quote
the F.B.I. director’s letter about the emails has not yet produced a major shift in private polling, according to Republican and Democratic strategists with access to confidential data, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Mrs. Clinton’s lead over Mr. Trump appears to have contracted modestly, but not enough to threaten her advantage over all or to make the electoral math less forbidding for Mr. Trump, Republicans and Democrats said.

Republicans privy to private polling data said surveys they had seen since the news from the F.B.I. on Friday still showed Mrs. Clinton leading in North Carolina


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 31, 2016, 08:54:48 pm
That's very good to hear, indeed, and gives more credence to what was already the sense: the unaffiliateds are breaking hard for HRC and that's where the poll adv is. Not close to a sure thing, but a little extra evidence in that direction.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: TarHeelDem on October 31, 2016, 09:14:02 pm
NC is either gone or very close to it at this point.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Hammy on October 31, 2016, 09:26:10 pm
If the polls coming out now and the next few days (which were taken at the peak of the Clinton-aspect of this) aren't showing a change, is it safe to say that barring any new developments there won't be any change from it?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on October 31, 2016, 09:35:15 pm
The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 31, 2016, 10:00:26 pm
NC is either gone or very close to it at this point.
Gone for who?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on October 31, 2016, 11:16:25 pm
The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.
Not when sex is involved. That seems to make it easier for the American public to pay attention to it. Pervert Anthony Weiner makes this story juicier than it would normally be.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: NOVA Green on November 01, 2016, 01:25:13 am
The Trump Tape was definitely more severe in its polling impact, with Monmouth showing Trump up Indiana 1 day, then down double digits the next, and Marquette having Trump up, then down...

It probably will take a week to understand the impact.

And the FBI story is too confusing for most people to digest, and the campaign is effectively countering back, and even has the support of hardline Republicans. Plus, tons of Trump oppo dumping tonight.
Not when sex is involved. That seems to make it easier for the American public to pay attention to it. Pervert Anthony Weiner makes this story juicier than it would normally be.

Pervert who????

Another email story about the same old, same old, what???

It's the same deal with the Trump groppergate.... big news initially and then five other women came forward and it barely drops on the radar of the American public.

Reality, is that this story, nor the DNC hack stories, doesn't really move the needle.

60+% of Americans see Trump as basically a sexist pig, racially insensitive, and lacking the fundamental judgement, temperament, and experience to run the highest office in the Nation, particularly on foreign policy, and 60% of Americans don't see Clinton as honest and trustworthy, and at worst view her more as a typical "politician" that will say one thing to Wall Street and another to Main Street to get elected.

You can believe whatever you want to believe, but the only people really obsessed with sex are Republicans, and the vast majority of evangelicals decided to forgive Trump of his sins solely because he has an (R) after his last name on the ballot.



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on November 01, 2016, 02:54:55 am
Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 01, 2016, 04:30:09 am
Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.

Well... I suppose it is.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 05:59:19 am
Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.
Sounds good. I interpret it as the-margin-is-inside-MOE-win and Trump trending up, i.e. Clinton +3-4 right now and Trump is doing slightly better in recent days.

Consistent with my theory, that last night attack was because of ABC'ish internals.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ronnie on November 01, 2016, 07:37:59 am
Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.

Thanks for nothing, Comey.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 01, 2016, 07:54:32 am
Here's a somewhat cryptic tweet from PPP:

Quote
I don't think Hillary is going to lose, but is it scarier than a week or two ago? Sure.

A pessimistic PPP? Uh oh...


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 07:57:37 am
Hmm. Yeah, they're pretty dead-on about this kind of thing. I wonder what they started seeing, since they didn't see anything at first. We'll see what they have.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 10:12:56 am
@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 10:13:17 am
Which sounds kinda like PPP does.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 10:17:00 am
@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

Is it not the same person that "a former FBI agent says anonymously"?.. ::)

I mean why the hell would they spread bad news to depress their own pubs? If Trump will lose in landslide, GOP will lose senate as well.

Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense, does it? ???


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 10:19:06 am
I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: elcorazon on November 01, 2016, 10:23:25 am
@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

Is it not the same person that "a former FBI agent says anonymously"?.. ::)

I mean why the hell would they spread bad news to depress their own pubs? If Trump will lose in landslide, GOP will lose senate as well.

Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense, does it? ???
where do you see landslide in this comment. They think the firewall states will all fall short, but they still think they can win senate races in MO, NC, IN, NV which would hold Senate. Not really that complicated.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 01, 2016, 10:28:42 am
@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

Is it not the same person that "a former FBI agent says anonymously"?.. ::)

I mean why the hell would they spread bad news to depress their own pubs? If Trump will lose in landslide, GOP will lose senate as well.

Sorry, but it doesn't make any sense, does it? ???
where do you see landslide in this comment. They think the firewall states will all fall short, but they still think they can win senate races in MO, NC, IN, NV which would hold Senate. Not really that complicated.

If they win all their firewall races and lose all their non-firewall races (except Bayh), that gives them 50.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 10:34:00 am
where do you see landslide in this comment. They think the firewall states will all fall short, but they still think they can win senate races in MO, NC, IN, NV which would hold Senate. Not really that complicated.

I ment that stating this fact might depress voters which may lead to landslide. What would happen, do you think, if "Democrat top pollster" would say the same? Would it not derpess D-voters?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 01, 2016, 10:48:50 am
@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

This top GOP pollster might be Tony Fabrizio, who linked to Harwood's tweet and said:

Tony Fabrizio
‏@TonyFabrizioGOP Tony Fabrizio Retweeted John Harwood
What if the turnout models are wrong and turnout looks more like 2014 than it does 2012?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 01, 2016, 10:53:16 am
@JohnJHarwood  5s6 seconds ago


top GOP pollster: "Trump recovering, not enough to dig out of hole. superior HRC data/digital/GOTV too much to overcome. GOP holds Senate."



https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793470712287748097

This top GOP pollster might be Tony Fabrizio, who linked to Harwood's tweet and said:

Tony Fabrizio
‏@TonyFabrizioGOP Tony Fabrizio Retweeted John Harwood
What if the turnout models are wrong and turnout looks more like 2014 than it does 2012?

Then maybe Trump wins NC, Nevada and Florida by 3, Colorado, Michigan, and Wisconsin by 1.5-2.0. Loses Virginia and New Hampshire by 1. Wins Ohio and Iowa by 8-10.
It turns out to be a very 2004ish election. May not be a significant change in Congress.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: elcorazon on November 01, 2016, 10:58:32 am
where do you see landslide in this comment. They think the firewall states will all fall short, but they still think they can win senate races in MO, NC, IN, NV which would hold Senate. Not really that complicated.

I ment that stating this fact might depress voters which may lead to landslide. What would happen, do you think, if "Democrat top pollster" would say the same? Would it not derpess D-voters?
or maybe they didn't mean for it to be public. I gotta say not many undecided voters are reading John Harwood's twitter.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: AmericanNation on November 01, 2016, 11:54:36 am
I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.
...A total hack that has been proven to be a mouthpiece of HRC campaign as if we needed proof. 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 11:57:36 am
I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.
...A total hack that has been proven to be a mouthpiece of HRC campaign as if we needed proof. 

Well, you're (to say the least) quite an extreme partisan, so I'm not terribly worried about your opinion when I'm seeking to find the current reality of the race. Like I said, here's the message, it jibes more or less with what we've actually seen in the numbers so far (not saying anything of what's to come). Take it or leave it.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 01, 2016, 12:10:37 pm
Not sure if these will be public polls so posting them here...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  7m7 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
Just got out of field in 2 Midwestern states we tracked a week ago- margin unchanged in one, Hillary actually doing 2 points better in other


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 12:14:16 pm
Not sure if these will be public polls so posting them here...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  7m7 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
Just got out of field in 2 Midwestern states we tracked a week ago- margin unchanged in one, Hillary actually doing 2 points better in other

Hmm. I wonder if their earlier statement was more a gut feeling of the tweeter based on other info rather than their own. Until they actually release anything, impossible to say. Good to hear, though.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on November 01, 2016, 12:28:20 pm
Oddly the Senate polls have been moving in the opposite direction.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: King Francis I on November 01, 2016, 12:28:56 pm
Oddly the Senate polls have been moving in the opposite direction.
???


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 01, 2016, 12:29:25 pm
Oddly the Senate polls have been moving in the opposite direction.

Think a lot of Republicans are getting behind the McGinties, Rosses, Hassans as a hedge against holding their nose for teh Donald?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HannibalLecter on November 01, 2016, 12:32:45 pm
I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.
...A total hack that has been proven to be a mouthpiece of HRC campaign as if we needed proof. 

In other words, a decent human being


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: AmericanNation on November 01, 2016, 12:37:53 pm
I'm reporting possible leaks, nothing more. It passes the logic test and Harwood's a good journo. You and everyone else can do what you want with it.
...A total hack that has been proven to be a mouthpiece of HRC campaign as if we needed proof. 

Well, you're (to say the least) quite an extreme partisan, so I'm not terribly worried about your opinion when I'm seeking to find the current reality of the race. Like I said, here's the message, it jibes more or less with what we've actually seen in the numbers so far (not saying anything of what's to come). Take it or leave it.
1) I'm not a partisan in any real definition of the word but whatever.  The use of the word extreme is wrong, but no one cares. 
2) It isn't my opinion, it is proven by primary source documents. 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 01:04:54 pm
Once again, I'm only here to post info. Don't shoot me, please:

Quote
@rubycramer

Clinton official tells reporters en route to Fla.: "We do not see anything that would suggest that the FBI story is impacting our support."


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on November 01, 2016, 01:07:41 pm
Once again, I'm only here to post info. Don't shoot me, please:

Quote
@rubycramer

Clinton official tells reporters en route to Fla.: "We do not see anything that would suggest that the FBI story is impacting our support."

That's all well and good and believable, Clinton official, but what also matters is if it affects Trump's support.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 01:13:30 pm
Once again, I'm only here to post info. Don't shoot me, please:

Quote
@rubycramer

Clinton official tells reporters en route to Fla.: "We do not see anything that would suggest that the FBI story is impacting our support."

That's all well and good and believable, Clinton official, but what also matters is if it affects Trump's support.

You're certainly not wrong about that. A 'coming home' for Rs would be the best way for T to tighten the race.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 01:23:20 pm
Once again, I'm only here to post info. Don't shoot me, please:

Quote
@rubycramer

Clinton official tells reporters en route to Fla.: "We do not see anything that would suggest that the FBI story is impacting our support."

No mercy! (http://i982.photobucket.com/albums/ae301/EarlyMemphis/Smileys-Animated/bth_ShootingCowboySmiley-1.gif)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 01, 2016, 01:27:57 pm
Not sure if these will be public polls so posting them here...

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  7m7 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
Just got out of field in 2 Midwestern states we tracked a week ago- margin unchanged in one, Hillary actually doing 2 points better in other

Kind of as a followup to the above: I'm not sure where else to put it; maybe we need a PPP tweets thread? ;)

Quote
Big picture what we're seeing is things tightened some *last week* (GOP coming home) but don't look any worse *this week.* Clinton +3-5

https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/793518731947278336


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 01:45:30 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2016, 01:47:45 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 01:52:15 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

Yeah, out of all the pollsters this cycle, they haven't been the friendliest to Hillary.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 01, 2016, 01:58:24 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

Yeah, out of all the pollsters this cycle, they haven't been the friendliest to Hillary.

To be fair, they also include an online component.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 02:07:52 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

Yeah, out of all the pollsters this cycle, they haven't been the friendliest to Hillary.

To be fair, they also include an online component.

Yeah, IVR-only like Emerson is a serious problem. It's (probably/all but) all evened out in PPP, I think.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 02:10:59 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

They don't favor GOP in this cycle, no.

But anyways, I was talking about their message. They likely won't publish those polls, why my interpretation is that their "Clinton +3-5" are D-friendly and means sort of: Clinton is at best +3-5 :P
No data, no responsibility.

We'll see soon.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 01, 2016, 02:12:57 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

They don't favor GOP in this cycly, no.

But anyways, I was talking about their message. They likely won't publish those polls, why my interpretation is that their "Clinton +3-5" are D-friendly and means sort of: Clinton is at best +3-5 :P

We'll see soon.
Or they won't publish polls because they are not doing any public polls for the last two weeks.  All private.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 02:13:53 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

They don't favor GOP in this cycly, no.

But anyways, I was talking about their message. They likely won't publish those polls, why my interpretation is that their "Clinton +3-5" are D-friendly and means sort of: Clinton is at best +3-5 :P

We'll see soon.
Or they won't publish polls because they are not doing any public polls for the last two weeks.  All private.
Yep, that's why they can say anything.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on November 01, 2016, 02:14:27 pm
PPP national polls were actually lower than the average.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 01, 2016, 02:14:58 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

They don't favor GOP in this cycly, no.

But anyways, I was talking about their message. They likely won't publish those polls, why my interpretation is that their "Clinton +3-5" are D-friendly and means sort of: Clinton is at best +3-5 :P

We'll see soon.
Or they won't publish polls because they are not doing any public polls for the last two weeks.  All private.
Yep, that's why they can say anything.
They can't give out numbers, which they haven't but they can talk trends all they want.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: nirvanayoda on November 01, 2016, 02:19:38 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

They don't favor GOP in this cycly, no.

But anyways, I was talking about their message. They likely won't publish those polls, why my interpretation is that their "Clinton +3-5" are D-friendly and means sort of: Clinton is at best +3-5 :P

We'll see soon.
Or they won't publish polls because they are not doing any public polls for the last two weeks.  All private.

Right, but in many cases if the poll is favorable to the Democrat (PPP's client, generally), they'll release the poll.  Given that we haven't seen any PPP polls in something like a week, my guess is the battleground trends aren't looking particularly favorable for Clinton, even if she remains ahead in them.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 01, 2016, 02:20:41 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

They don't favor GOP in this cycly, no.

But anyways, I was talking about their message. They likely won't publish those polls, why my interpretation is that their "Clinton +3-5" are D-friendly and means sort of: Clinton is at best +3-5 :P

We'll see soon.
Or they won't publish polls because they are not doing any public polls for the last two weeks.  All private.

Right, but in many cases if the poll is favorable to the Democrat (PPP's client, generally), they'll release the poll.  Given that we haven't seen any PPP polls in something like a week, my guess is the battleground trends aren't looking particularly favorable for Clinton, even if she remains ahead in them.
Or they just don't want to release. 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 02:21:54 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

They don't favor GOP in this cycly, no.

But anyways, I was talking about their message. They likely won't publish those polls, why my interpretation is that their "Clinton +3-5" are D-friendly and means sort of: Clinton is at best +3-5 :P

We'll see soon.
Or they won't publish polls because they are not doing any public polls for the last two weeks.  All private.

Right, but in many cases if the poll is favorable to the Democrat (PPP's client, generally), they'll release the poll.  Given that we haven't seen any PPP polls in something like a week, my guess is the battleground trends aren't looking particularly favorable for Clinton, even if she remains ahead in them.

No, PPP's client will release the poll. PPP has no say if their private polls are released.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2016, 02:57:18 pm
Quote
top GOP pollster #2: erosion for HRC, but on track for 3-pt pop-vote win. "weird things might increase EV lead: winning AZ, Trump losing UT"

The Arizona dream still lives!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: nirvanayoda on November 01, 2016, 03:05:33 pm
Wow, it sounds nice, given that this is PPP :P

Why?

PPP is a landline pollster, which generally favors the GOP.

They don't favor GOP in this cycly, no.

But anyways, I was talking about their message. They likely won't publish those polls, why my interpretation is that their "Clinton +3-5" are D-friendly and means sort of: Clinton is at best +3-5 :P

We'll see soon.
Or they won't publish polls because they are not doing any public polls for the last two weeks.  All private.

Right, but in many cases if the poll is favorable to the Democrat (PPP's client, generally), they'll release the poll.  Given that we haven't seen any PPP polls in something like a week, my guess is the battleground trends aren't looking particularly favorable for Clinton, even if she remains ahead in them.

No, PPP's client will release the poll. PPP has no say if their private polls are released.

By "they'll release the poll", I meant "PPP's client will release the poll".  You're correct.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fubart Solman on November 01, 2016, 03:34:29 pm
Quote
top GOP pollster #2: erosion for HRC, but on track for 3-pt pop-vote win. "weird things might increase EV lead: winning AZ, Trump losing UT"

The Arizona dream still lives!

As does the Utah dream.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 01, 2016, 03:48:17 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  8m8 minutes ago
Every NC poll we've done in the last month has had Clinton up narrowly. She will probably win. If she loses it will be likely be by 1-2 pts


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 03:50:10 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  8m8 minutes ago
Every NC poll we've done in the last month has had Clinton up narrowly. She will probably win. If she loses it will be likely be by 1-2 pts

Niiiice.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on November 01, 2016, 07:47:17 pm
http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2016/11/trump-for-ny-poll-shows-a-much-closer-race-in-ny/

Trump internal has Clinton up 49-38 in New York, after doing a push question.

"Before being asked who their favored candidate was, the pollster asked voters: “All things being equal, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for president that will continue many of President Obama’s policies for the next four years or change and take the country in a new and different direction?”


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Elizabeth Warren 2020 on November 01, 2016, 07:48:34 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  8m8 minutes ago
Every NC poll we've done in the last month has had Clinton up narrowly. She will probably win. If she loses it will be likely be by 1-2 pts

Niiiice.

Trump will win NC by at least 3%, though no more than 5%.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2016, 07:50:16 pm
http://www.nystateofpolitics.com/2016/11/trump-for-ny-poll-shows-a-much-closer-race-in-ny/

Trump internal has Clinton up 49-38 in New York, after doing a push question.

"Before being asked who their favored candidate was, the pollster asked voters: “All things being equal, would you be more likely to vote for a candidate for president that will continue many of President Obama’s policies for the next four years or change and take the country in a new and different direction?”

What a joke.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Elizabeth Warren 2020 on November 01, 2016, 07:51:26 pm
Hillary has rarely hit the upper 50s in a NY poll, so it's not impossible Trump could hit 40% there, though unlikely.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Milton Friedman on November 01, 2016, 07:53:17 pm
Majority Leader Cantor nods his head in approval at that NY poll.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2016, 07:53:45 pm
Hillary has rarely hit the upper 50s in a NY poll, so it's not impossible Trump could hit 40% there, though unlikely.

I am talking about the question.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 01, 2016, 08:32:46 pm
While I do expect Trump to perform better in New York than Romney, I don't see how he hits 40%. You have to remember that Stein\Johnson\others will probably get about 5% of the vote here.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 02, 2016, 07:45:00 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  18m18 minutes ago
top GOP pollster: "Johnson continuing to trend down.  Clinton holding steady lead of about 5 points"


How many "top GOP pollsters" does Harwood know? Not everyone can be a top pollster.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Kamala/Beto 2020 on November 02, 2016, 07:46:48 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  18m18 minutes ago
top GOP pollster: "Johnson continuing to trend down.  Clinton holding steady lead of about 5 points"


How many "top GOP pollsters" does Harwood know? Not everyone can be a top pollster.
lol maybe he has money invested in the betting odds


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 02, 2016, 07:52:34 am
More top men. Who? TOP. MEN.

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  7m7 minutes ago
top Dem pollster on Clinton edge: "could get tighter because partisanship such a driver of vote choice, but she's holding steady"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"

John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
non-partisan pollster on Clinton lead: "data says 6 and steady"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 08:00:02 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on November 02, 2016, 08:08:28 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: TarHeelDem on November 02, 2016, 08:12:13 am
6 sounds about right to me, give or take two points in either direction.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 08:26:15 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 02, 2016, 08:30:05 am
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  4m4 minutes ago
top Dem pollster #2 on approx Clinton edge over Trump: "2-6 IMHO"
Lol

This is consistent with stability in the race over several months assuming all swings are reflecting non-response.
Yes, I know. But this says basically nothing. It is like saying:

top Trumpista pollster on approx race in FL/NC/IA/[ any close state]: "from C-2 to T+2 IMHO".

So the reality is really Tied to 4 points? I believe it. One more oppo hit against Hillary and Trump will win. Else, she wins.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 02, 2016, 10:30:05 am
gop pollster: clinton leading 2-4, trump turnout gonna b good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793833306097852416


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HokeyDood on November 02, 2016, 10:41:24 am
gop pollster: clinton leading 2-4, trump turnout gonna b good.
https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/793833306097852416

Excellent analysis.  Non-existent GOTV efforts almost always coincide with fantastic turnout.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 02, 2016, 10:43:08 am
true but we shouldn't underestimate the RNC and the senate campaigns.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 02, 2016, 12:09:11 pm
gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 02, 2016, 12:11:03 pm
gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

But the counterpoint from  a GOP strategist is:

Quote
+1. Having done 4+ successful statewide GOP races in MI, I'll put it this way: if Trump carries MI, I'll die my hair orange... @RadioFreeGOP

https://twitter.com/murphymike/status/793810987719589889


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Elizabeth Warren 2020 on November 02, 2016, 12:11:08 pm
NH's going to be tough. Hillary is around 46-47% there and you know white men are going to swing hard against her. There's no minority base there. Hopefully her performance among NH white women is more similar to Obama 2008 than Obama 2012, or else Trump could squeak by.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on November 02, 2016, 12:14:36 pm
Private polling the entire cycle has been steady with a mid single digit lead nationally for Clinton. GOP internals are notoriously horrible in presidential years and I would be skeptical of any reports of states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire being close.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on November 02, 2016, 12:17:11 pm
gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 12:20:36 pm
gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Trump was in a very deep hole in NH, though.

Some internals had him down double digits a week ago.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: adrac on November 02, 2016, 12:34:17 pm
NH's going to be tough. Hillary is around 46-47% there and you know white men are going to swing hard against her. There's no minority base there. Hopefully her performance among NH white women is more similar to Obama 2008 than Obama 2012, or else Trump could squeak by.

You know what they say about white women in NH...


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on November 02, 2016, 04:22:43 pm
Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 02, 2016, 04:23:13 pm
Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.

Then he's down by more than that


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 02, 2016, 04:30:34 pm
Apparently Kellyanne Conway said on CNN just now that Trump's internals have him down 4 points in PA.

Wow, the election is so rigged that even Trump internals are rigged now.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 02, 2016, 04:31:50 pm
gop operative from NH claims great homecoming, fast closing gap
https://mobile.twitter.com/rebeccagberg/status/793855147252285444

Lmao. No Republican was going to beat Clinton in NH. The state is as safe D as you can get.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 02, 2016, 06:59:18 pm
Omgomg8mgomgomgpmgomg Trump polling showing VA in play OMG OMHOMHO.HP.HPMGLOMG OMG

https://mobile.twitter.com/MajorCBS/status/793954005743452161


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 02, 2016, 07:11:19 pm
I dont think Virginia is in play, but a couple of internal polls during Comey gate probably showed otherwise.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 07:13:09 pm
lol.

It isn't in play, just like NH isn't in play. The man has no path to 270 and is throwing sh**t at the wall to see what sticks.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 07:14:07 pm
lol k


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on November 02, 2016, 07:17:02 pm
Who else thinks that "internal" is the crappy university poll out today?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 02, 2016, 07:17:24 pm
Who else thinks that "internal" is the crappy university poll out today?

That too.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on November 02, 2016, 07:18:32 pm
Wasn't the Trump campaign internal polling analysis just a graph of the LA Times poll with some tangent lines drawn?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 07:20:02 pm
Trump "internals" are never actually internals - they're the most favorable crap poll out there.

And from early vote returns, Virginia not only looks out of play, but like a blow out.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: bilaps on November 02, 2016, 07:21:06 pm
John King just said on CNN there is a new poll from CO showing a tie. Anyone knows what he's talking about?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 02, 2016, 07:23:33 pm
John King just said on CNN there is a new poll from CO showing a tie. Anyone knows what he's talking about?

likely
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250533.0


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Mike88 on November 02, 2016, 07:23:45 pm
John King just said on CNN there is a new poll from CO showing a tie. Anyone knows what he's talking about?

Maybe he's talking about the Remington poll. It has Clinton+1.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Hammy on November 02, 2016, 07:24:08 pm
John King just said on CNN there is a new poll from CO showing a tie. Anyone knows what he's talking about?

I can't find anything but (just guessing) he may have meant Nevada, as there was a tie poll released yesterday.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 02, 2016, 07:25:05 pm
John King just said on CNN there is a new poll from CO showing a tie. Anyone knows what he's talking about?

likely
http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=250533.0

THE HORSE RACE!!!!!11!!1

ugh....


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: bilaps on November 02, 2016, 07:26:20 pm
He was literaly going to sit from his "magic wall" and he said looking at the phone something like "things change any minute, we have a poll showing a tie in Colorado". So i thought it was like brend new poll. Who knows what he meant.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 02, 2016, 07:27:49 pm
one of the best reasons for joining this board...not getting spooked by crappy polls hyped by the media.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 07:28:04 pm
http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/


#Colorado:
University of Denver (10/29-31):

Clinton 39%
Trump 39%
Third-Party Candidates 15%


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 07:34:02 pm
39% is the top number this late in the race? Literally the worst poll ever.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 03, 2016, 02:21:52 pm
PPP says their polling has Clinton ahead in NH, for what it's worth.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 03, 2016, 02:30:59 pm
PPP says their polling has Clinton ahead in NH, for what it's worth.

I wonder if that means she's like a point ahead or solidly ahead.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 03, 2016, 02:50:13 pm
39% is the top number this late in the race? Literally the worst poll ever.

Thats 22% undecided or third party?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ljube on November 03, 2016, 03:01:51 pm
PPP says their polling has Clinton ahead in NH, for what it's worth.

I wonder if that means she's like a point ahead or solidly ahead.

Very few tweets by PPP in the last five or so days.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on November 03, 2016, 03:02:33 pm
PPP says their polling has Clinton ahead in NH, for what it's worth.

I wonder if that means she's like a point ahead or solidly ahead.

Very few tweets by PPP in the last five or so days.

They're likely pretty busy with their private clients.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 03, 2016, 03:34:39 pm
PPP says their polling has Clinton ahead in NH, for what it's worth.

I wonder if that means she's like a point ahead or solidly ahead.

Very few tweets by PPP in the last five or so days.

They're likely pretty busy with their private clients.

I believe they said not long ago that this election is the busiest they've ever been.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 03, 2016, 03:42:16 pm
If they're not going to release public polls, what would they be tweeting about? It's pretty rare that they release info on their polling for clients.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 03, 2016, 03:57:20 pm
Of the 64.4% (322/500) of respondents who said they already voted:

Clinton - 46  (+6.0)
Trump - 40
Johnson - 8
Stein - 2
Other - 2

???


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 04:23:45 pm
Of the 64.4% (322/500) of respondents who said they already voted:

Clinton - 46  (+6.0)
Trump - 40
Johnson - 8
Stein - 2
Other - 2

???

Sorry I had multiple threads open, posted in wrong one-- deleting this post.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 08:00:52 pm
mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
"Just saw new CO survey. Live calls to landline and cell. Trump -6."

(Presumably he means Trump is down 6.)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 03, 2016, 08:03:13 pm
mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
"Just saw new CO survey. Live calls to landline and cell. Trump -6."

(Presumably he means Trump is down 6.)
Is this the magellan thing?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 08:06:51 pm
mike murphy ‏@murphymike  2m2 minutes ago
"Just saw new CO survey. Live calls to landline and cell. Trump -6."

(Presumably he means Trump is down 6.)
Is this the magellan thing?

Hmm, not sure, I guess it could be. 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on November 04, 2016, 01:07:10 am
https://www.scribd.com/document/329893774/MN-02-GBA-for-Angie-Craig-Nov-2016

Clinton +5/+7 in MN-02, which Obama barely won in 2012.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 04, 2016, 07:35:43 am
John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Worried Italian Progressive on November 04, 2016, 07:43:24 am
John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""
LOL


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2016, 07:53:08 am
John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The truth is (as usual) in the middle. :)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 04, 2016, 07:53:31 am
Even the Trump campaign admits Arizona is a tossup!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 04, 2016, 07:57:08 am
John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""
Yep, as I said the polls have rebounded. It helps that most polls being released lack the day of the Comey release.

The truth is (as usual) in the middle. :)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2016, 08:04:50 am
John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The Trump person isn't talking about polling, they're talking about a path. A least Clinton's is talking about the lay of the land.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Moderate Pennsylvanian on November 04, 2016, 08:10:27 am
Even the Trump campaign admits Arizona is a tossup!

Which means Nevada is not.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 04, 2016, 08:11:41 am
If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 04, 2016, 08:11:52 am
John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The Trump person isn't talking about polling, they're talking about a path. A least Clinton's is talking about the lay of the land.

MI/WI/PA, I think she's talking about polling partially because she seems to imply it's out of reach with few days to go.

The rest of them, she means they need to win all of them.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 04, 2016, 08:29:37 am
If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.

If I had to guess, I think Trump ends up winning both by about the same margin (2-3 points).


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 04, 2016, 08:40:18 am
John Harwood

"Trump strategist at last weekend: "MI/PA/WI break our hearts. We win OH/NC/IA; NH/FL toss-up. We win those, LONG night waiting for NV/CO/AZ""

"Clinton strategist on lead entering final weekend: "Solid. Things improved a bit last two days. basically same as we were a week or two ago""

The truth is (as usual) in the middle. :)
Not necessarily


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2016, 08:41:00 am
If Iowa can trend so far right in one cycle, it's not crazy to think Arizona can trend so far left at the same time. Arizona could even be to the left of Iowa.

If I had to guess, I think Trump ends up winning both by about the same margin (2-3 points).

Wait... I'm more optimistic than you are?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 04, 2016, 09:44:47 am
John Harwood

"top GOP Senate strategist: "All races w/in MOE. think we have IN. concerned about PA/NV this morning. Trump finishing well. comes up short""


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 04, 2016, 09:45:58 am
John Harwood

"top GOP Senate strategist: "All races w/in MOE. think we have IN. concerned about PA/NV this morning. Trump finishing well. comes up short""

Reading between the lines... Indiana is the only one they think they will win and PA and NV are definitely gone.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ExtremeConservative on November 04, 2016, 09:48:50 am
I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 04, 2016, 10:04:55 am
Not really related to internal but


@ppppolls What's your view on OH?

PPP: "Pretty good chance it will be closest state in the country and someone wins by less than a point- our last had Hillary narrowly ahead"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: MasterJedi on November 04, 2016, 10:06:01 am
I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 04, 2016, 10:06:47 am
Not really related to internal but


@ppppolls What's your view on OH?

PPP: "Pretty good chance it will be closest state in the country and someone wins by less than a point- our last had Hillary narrowly ahead"

If that's true, he's phucked.  It would be funny if Ohio is like Missouri in 2008 where it comes down to a recount but Hillary has already won.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 04, 2016, 10:07:27 am
I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

No one wants it to end like this...


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on November 04, 2016, 10:09:00 am
Not really related to internal but


@ppppolls What's your view on OH?

PPP: "Pretty good chance it will be closest state in the country and someone wins by less than a point- our last had Hillary narrowly ahead"

Prob within half a point either way


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Elizabeth Warren 2020 on November 04, 2016, 10:12:07 am
As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 04, 2016, 10:13:12 am
As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.

Hmmm, turning a corner are we?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 04, 2016, 10:13:37 am
As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.
I heard about someone changing their vote from Bush to Gore as they were going to the polling station and heard his campaign on NPR talk about how they weren't just about the oil.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 04, 2016, 10:18:57 am
I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

Yeah, I don't buy the "Comey actually INCREASED Dem enthusiasm" spin, but I do think Trump closing the gap has scared Democrats into shifting back from unlikely to likely voters.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 04, 2016, 10:20:18 am
I'm worried that things are shifting again.  We need to close strong to win the White House and the Senate.

People got out of the "OMG emails" to "oh sh**t, Trump could actually win, hell no" mentality.

Yeah, I don't buy the "Comey actually INCREASED Dem enthusiasm" spin, but I do think Trump closing the gap has scared Democrats into shifting back from unlikely to likely voters.

Bernie bros, I think


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 04, 2016, 10:27:02 am
Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Kamala/Beto 2020 on November 04, 2016, 10:28:42 am
Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
Interesting, their 2012 electorate was Obama 51 - Romney 41


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 04, 2016, 10:34:57 am
Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
Interesting, their 2012 electorate was Obama 51 - Romney 41

That's pretty common, people overestimate supporting the winner.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: darthpi on November 04, 2016, 11:43:20 am
Not sure if "internal" as it's for an advocacy group, but final PPP Poll of WI has Clinton +7, Feingold +5:

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143856/WIResults112-Final.pdf
Interesting, their 2012 electorate was Obama 51 - Romney 41

That's pretty common, people overestimate supporting the winner.

And yet the people running the LA Times poll couldn't figure that out.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 12:34:24 pm
@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 05, 2016, 12:39:51 pm
@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 05, 2016, 12:41:08 pm
@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.

Matching Romney's 206 is a very plausible outcome.  Swap NC/AZ for IA/OH.  Both pairs add up to 26 EV and cancel each other out.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2016, 12:42:17 pm
@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

It is all about TrumpTV.

He would lose credibility if he gets blown out worse then Mitt.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 01:06:27 pm
PPP has polled Ohio four times since Labor Day, and each time they've found the race within a point. (https://twitter.com/ppppolls/status/794962978173026305)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 05, 2016, 01:06:50 pm
Caveat: Its Glenn Thrush


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ReapSow on November 05, 2016, 01:23:18 pm
@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.

Matching Romney's 206 is a very plausible outcome.  Swap NC/AZ for IA/OH.  Both pairs add up to 26 EV and cancel each other out.

Ohio + Iowa = 24 EV.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Oak Hills on November 05, 2016, 03:06:39 pm
As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.
I heard about someone changing their vote from Bush to Gore as they were going to the polling station and heard his campaign on NPR talk about how they weren't just about the oil.

What is that supposed to mean?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 05, 2016, 03:08:18 pm
As long as Hillary makes it through today with no new FBI news she could still have a chance. No one pays attention on the weekend and no one changes their vote the day before the election.
I heard about someone changing their vote from Bush to Gore as they were going to the polling station and heard his campaign on NPR talk about how they weren't just about the oil.

What is that supposed to mean?
That they weren't about promoting fossil fuel companies or that they had a major stay in steering the BC00 and BC04 administration.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 05, 2016, 03:11:51 pm
@GlennThrush

Trump wants to win. But two people in his orbit have told me in last week that decisively beating Romney's 206 EVs is increasingly a goal.

Hmm if they're under 206, they're likely behind in Ohio or Arizona.

Matching Romney's 206 is a very plausible outcome.  Swap NC/AZ for IA/OH.  Both pairs add up to 26 EV and cancel each other out.

Ohio + Iowa = 24 EV.

So it is.  Don't know what I was thinking.  Thanks. :)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 05, 2016, 03:53:18 pm
Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 03:54:23 pm
Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.

Really kind of surprised to him say this publicly.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 05, 2016, 03:59:13 pm
...then why hasn't anyone heard of them? There seems to be a steady stream of Tweets coming from consultants about HRC winning big, yet there's nothing of the kind on Trump. Any explanations?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 04:03:46 pm
He doesn't want to interfer the election process ::)

And he wants to be... unpredictable :D


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 05, 2016, 04:03:55 pm
There aren't any.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 04:05:38 pm
If you internals are really so good, you're chilling. Not writing "mystic" s**t like this ::)

I mean: Just look att PPP; they were playfull and funny. Well, not anymore, they spent their time to say: "in our private polls, she's leading" and realesed public polls, though that didn't plan it.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 05, 2016, 04:06:27 pm
He doesn't want to interfer the election process ::)

And he wants to be... unpredictable :D
I'm the White Wizard! :D
(https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=8AZbc8DW&id=031D1E2449779D2FDB648F5220E99ED04A5DFC1D&q=fat+kid+dressed+as+wizard&simid=608042945128828260&selectedIndex=7)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: QE on November 05, 2016, 04:07:08 pm
Not really an internal poll, but I'm not sure if Mook is referencing internal polling or the recent public polling coming out of MI.

Dan Merica Verified account
‏@danmericaCNN
Dan Merica Retweeted Dan Merica
Robby Mook, Clinton's campaign manager, on Michigan: "The numbers there have tightened."

---

This could help explain Hillary's campaign stop in Grand Rapids and the decision to send President Obama to Ann Arbor.



Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: alomas on November 05, 2016, 04:07:31 pm
Because they are internals? We also haven't seen any Romney data from 2012 :P


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 04:08:58 pm
He doesn't want to interfer the election process ::)

And he wants to be... unpredictable :D
I'm the White Wizard! :D

No, you are black! :-\


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 05, 2016, 04:11:24 pm
Because they are internals? We also haven't seen any Romney data from 2012 :P
But we did get gobs of hints from his aides. This year, we have "Says who?".


Also, can this be moved to the main 2016 board? I seem to have posted it in the wrong place.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2016, 04:13:51 pm
Mook is always known for his abundance of caution when publicly discussing the race.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 05, 2016, 04:14:36 pm
He doesn't want to interfer the election process ::)

And he wants to be... unpredictable :D
I'm the White Wizard! :D

No, you are black! :-\
The BLACK wizard
(http://media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/a1/6b/ba/a16bbaa7fa014ec09d054fa94392b9f5.jpg)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: QE on November 05, 2016, 04:19:08 pm
Mook is always known for his abundance of caution when publicly discussing the race.

This is very true.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: RJEvans on November 05, 2016, 04:29:22 pm
Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.

Everyone's reputation is on the line.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 05, 2016, 04:38:32 pm
Not really an internal, though maybe Plouffe has access to internal numbers:

David PlouffeVerified account
‏@davidplouffe
Four years ago. 332 electoral votes. HRC well north of 300 in two days.

Everyone's reputation is on the line.
This wouldn't be an Obama/Romney thing where Obama opened a modest but comfortable lead where he was always barely ahead? This would be a bigger error if they were wrong.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 05, 2016, 04:44:40 pm
Frida Ghitis ‏@FridaGhitis  3h3 hours ago
Político writer tells MSNBC that Trump has stopped polling - because he refuses to pay his pollster. May explain campaigning in odd places.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 05, 2016, 05:29:59 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-hillarys-ground-game-will-sink-trump-230718

Not internal polling but here are where each team stands.

"a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states, seven of which are seeing significant early- and absentee-voting operations. In those seven states where large numbers of voters are expected to cast their ballots before Election Day — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin — more than three-quarters of Democrats think their party has done a better job turning out key voters thus far.

Democratic insiders are most confident in Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. They express more uncertainty in Florida and Iowa.

"Republicans, meanwhile, were split across these early voting states. Overall, 40 percent said the GOP was doing the better job, compared with 31 percent who said Democrats were overperforming. Another 29 percent said neither party had a discernible advantage."

"(The question wasn’t posed to insiders in Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia — states that don't offer early voting and have more restrictive absentee ballot requirements.)"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 05, 2016, 05:59:03 pm
Peter Alexander ‏@PeterAlexander
NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on November 05, 2016, 06:00:35 pm
Peter Alexander ‏@PeterAlexander
NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there"

Ah yes, Trump's non existent internal polling


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: QE on November 05, 2016, 06:02:48 pm
Peter Alexander ‏@PeterAlexander
NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there"

Ah yes, Trump's non existent internal polling

I bet they're talking about that Strategic Vision junk poll which might as well function as an internal.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on November 05, 2016, 06:04:57 pm
Peter Alexander ‏@PeterAlexander
NEW: Trump top aide says their internals show Michigan a dead heat. Looking to add Trump MI stop Mon or Tues in addition to Sun rally there"

Ah yes, Trump's non existent internal polling

I bet they're talking about that Strategic Vision junk poll which might as well function as an internal.

Probably


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 06:08:25 pm
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-hillarys-ground-game-will-sink-trump-230718

Not internal polling but here are where each team stands.

"a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 11 swing states, seven of which are seeing significant early- and absentee-voting operations. In those seven states where large numbers of voters are expected to cast their ballots before Election Day — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin — more than three-quarters of Democrats think their party has done a better job turning out key voters thus far.

Democratic insiders are most confident in Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. They express more uncertainty in Florida and Iowa.

"Republicans, meanwhile, were split across these early voting states. Overall, 40 percent said the GOP was doing the better job, compared with 31 percent who said Democrats were overperforming. Another 29 percent said neither party had a discernible advantage."

"(The question wasn’t posed to insiders in Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Virginia — states that don't offer early voting and have more restrictive absentee ballot requirements.)"

What? They are confident about Ohio, but not about Florida ???


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on November 05, 2016, 06:08:50 pm
That or they're taking Mook's bait.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 03:17:57 am
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/democratic-insiders-hillarys-ground-game-will-sink-trump-230718

Not internal polling but here are where each team stands.

Actually, there was one little nugget of internal polling:

And in Wisconsin, one Democrat said, “It's not even close. Both Clinton and [former Sen. Russ] Feingold have 30-point leads in early voting.”


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 06, 2016, 09:18:22 am
"John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
Priebus on Michigan: "we’ve invested over $100M in data. track race far better than any polling. predictive modeling tells us it's tied""


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 06, 2016, 09:20:25 am
"John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
Priebus on Michigan: "we’ve invested over $100M in data. track race far better than any polling. predictive modeling tells us it's tied""

Lol ok Reince. You're almost done, don't worry.

Also:
Glenn Thrush ‏@GlennThrush  1m1 minute ago
Podesta tells @chucktodd he feels "very, very good" about Hispanic turnout in Nevada/Fla compensating for sag in AA early voting


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 06, 2016, 09:31:57 am
"John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  1m1 minute ago
Priebus on Michigan: "we’ve invested over $100M in data. track race far better than any polling. predictive modeling tells us it's tied""
Have they already forgotten 2012?

And if it's called when the polls close, I'm going to laugh my ass off.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: HillOfANight on November 06, 2016, 10:12:43 am
https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 06, 2016, 10:27:06 am
https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan

Disappointing, but I guess better to lock down the blue wall than make a last ditch effort to keep Iowa in.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 10:35:44 am
https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan

One more evidence that superduper magic internals & ground-game doesn't differ much from public polling, no/si?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 06, 2016, 10:36:26 am
https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/795263277613846528

Trump's internal map lol


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 06, 2016, 10:40:32 am
https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan


One more evidence that superduper magic internals & ground-game doesn't differ much from public polling, no/si?

on the contrary....IA is the opposite if OH.....full republican support for trump since day1 and its demography was pro-populism to begin with....the main reason it voted straight D since years was republican anti-farmer-policy during reagan, i was told.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: politicallefty on November 06, 2016, 10:47:49 am
https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan

Disappointing, but I guess better to lock down the blue wall than make a last ditch effort to keep Iowa in.

F-ck Iowa. I'm sick of them and their god-damned corn subsidies that keep HFCS in our food supply. The DNC should nuke the Iowa Caucus ASAP and give it to a more appropriate state. I don't see any adverse reason why Nevada shouldn't be the first in the nation caucus (if we're going to even keep caucuses at all).

I don't agree with Donald Trump on almost anything, but I share his viewpoint: "How stupid are the people of Iowa?"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 10:48:54 am
https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan


One more evidence that superduper magic internals & ground-game doesn't differ much from public polling, no/si?

on the contrary....IA is the opposite if OH.....full republican support for trump since day1 and its demography was pro-populism to begin with....the main reason it voted straight D since years was republican anti-farmer-policy during reagan, i was told.

And? You think it is coincidence that Obama was cancelled day after Selzer showed Trump+7?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 06, 2016, 11:33:15 am
Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 06, 2016, 11:34:19 am
‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 06, 2016, 11:35:04 am
‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)
If they're saying that, the reality could be worse.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 06, 2016, 11:36:09 am
‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)

So they're conceding FL.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 06, 2016, 11:36:44 am
‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)

So they're conceding FL.

Noticed that, too.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Mike88 on November 06, 2016, 11:38:16 am
Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 06, 2016, 11:39:42 am
‏@JohnJHarwood  13s13 seconds ago

3 GOP pollsters I asked this am -  #1: HRC w/304 EVs (losing OH/NC/NH); #2: 322 EVs (winning NC/NH, losing ME-2); #3: 323 EVs (winning ME-2)

So they're conceding FL.

Correlates with Chuck Todd's comments on TODAY this morning from Republican insiders "very nervous" about Hispanic over-performance in FL. Concede FL, concede the election


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2016, 11:40:51 am
Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?

Yes. I remember Obama in 2008 campaigning at Indianapolis before going to Chicago for his election night party.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 06, 2016, 11:42:14 am
Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?

Yes. I remember Obama in 2008 campaigning at Indianapolis before going to Chicago for his election night party.

Maybe you make one stop, but not five. Check out some of the Youtube clips from the 1988 election and you'll see Trump is throwing spaghetti at the wall in a similar way


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: alomas on November 06, 2016, 11:43:53 am
That guy you are tweeting is clearly supporting Clinton.

Romney campaigned in Ohio and Pennsylvania on Election Day.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 06, 2016, 11:46:24 am
https://twitter.com/jmartnyt/status/795267630877777920

.@jeffzeleny reports on @CNN Obama was itching to make 1 final trip to Iowa, which started it all, but was told it was gone. So: Ann Arbor Michigan


One more evidence that superduper magic internals & ground-game doesn't differ much from public polling, no/si?

on the contrary....IA is the opposite if OH.....full republican support for trump since day1 and its demography was pro-populism to begin with....the main reason it voted straight D since years was republican anti-farmer-policy during reagan, i was told.

And? You think it is coincidence that Obama was cancelled day after Selzer showed Trump+7?

no?

i think IA is not a good bellwether state for the nation.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2016, 11:51:59 am
Campaigning on election day is stupid. You want your staff 100% focused on GOTV. Organizing an election rally is just a distraction.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 06, 2016, 11:53:15 am
Not high confidence in a win there, Senator?

@Schultz44  59s59 seconds ago

New: Sen. Isakson tells Atlanta Journal Constitution he expects Senate to confirm Merrick Garland before January.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Confused Democrat on November 06, 2016, 11:55:51 am
That guy you are tweeting is clearly supporting Clinton.

Romney campaigned in Ohio and Pennsylvania on Election Day.

Didn't help him much in the end lol.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2016, 11:57:28 am
Echoes of Dukakis in 1988 when he lost

Trump making stops in PA, MI, OH, NC, NH on Election Day itself

Wow! Is that even allowed? Campaigning on election day?

Yes. I remember Obama in 2008 campaigning at Indianapolis before going to Chicago for his election night party.

Maybe you make one stop, but not five. Check out some of the Youtube clips from the 1988 election and you'll see Trump is throwing spaghetti at the wall in a similar way

I agree with you. I don't get what kind of campaign stops will be these, 5 states in a few hours with a lot of time wasted in travel, I doubt he will be able to stay more than a few minutes at every stop. Seems like a waste of money and energy.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 06, 2016, 11:59:26 am
Not high confidence in a win there, Senator?

@Schultz44  59s59 seconds ago

New: Sen. Isakson tells Atlanta Journal Constitution he expects Senate to confirm Merrick Garland before January.

Well then


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: politicallefty on November 06, 2016, 12:03:26 pm
Not high confidence in a win there, Senator?

@Schultz44  59s59 seconds ago

New: Sen. Isakson tells Atlanta Journal Constitution he expects Senate to confirm Merrick Garland before January.

If Hillary wins and gets a majority in the Senate, President Obama should immediately withdraw his nomination to allow for a substantially more liberal Justice.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 06, 2016, 12:09:37 pm
nah...give the nevertrump elecorate their garland...there will be 2-3 more vacancies the next 4 years, imho.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Mallow on November 06, 2016, 12:11:01 pm
Not high confidence in a win there, Senator?

@Schultz44  59s59 seconds ago

New: Sen. Isakson tells Atlanta Journal Constitution he expects Senate to confirm Merrick Garland before January.

If Hillary wins and gets a majority in the Senate, President Obama should immediately withdraw his nomination to allow for a substantially more liberal Justice.

Absolutely, 100%. After the sh*t the Republicans pulled here in the hopes that Democrats wouldn't hold the White House, this would be a perfectly reasonable response. I think Obama would be too generous to the Republicans to actually do this, though.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 06, 2016, 09:02:37 pm
GOP strategist Mike Murphy foresees a short night due to FL (a growing sentiment elsewhere, I think, too):

@murphymike  5m5 minutes ago

My big prediction: I think she'll win FL quickly; will be clear in early numbers. Then cable news will do a huge 180 on "long night".


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on November 06, 2016, 09:04:59 pm
GOP strategist Mike Murphy foresees a short night due to FL (a growing sentiment elsewhere, I think, too):

@murphymike  5m5 minutes ago

My big prediction: I think she'll win FL quickly; will be clear in early numbers. Then cable news will do a huge 180 on "long night".

It'll look pretty ridiculous is Hillary is leading in the state 51-45 most of the evening but they still don't call it. I'm sure CNN won't to keep people watching.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 06, 2016, 09:13:42 pm
Tom Bentley
‏@thomaswmbentley
@ppppolls Do you guys think the same person is gonna win NC and FL?

PublicPolicyPollingVerified account
‏@ppppolls PublicPolicyPolling Retweeted Tom Bentley
Think Hillary will win both but more confident about Florida


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 09:35:41 pm
@ppppolls How's the feeling on Ohio though?

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  13m13 minutes ago
Coin flip but remember Clinton ground game- especially with early vote- allowed her to exceed expectations in primary there

@ppppolls how's your feeling on New Hampshire a lot of movement there recently .. which actually makes me less inclined to believe it

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  5m5 minutes ago
PublicPolicyPolling Retweeted Marc Diamond
I think Hillary will outperform the poll averages in NH

@ppppolls Why do you think that?

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  4m4 minutes ago
Because our last poll had her up 5 and most of the 'bad' polls for her last week there had field dates with the Comey stuff very fresh

@ppppolls Do you agree with Ralston on NV?

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  4m4 minutes ago
Yes. Every poll we've released this year has had both Clinton and Cortez Masto winning


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 09:36:24 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 06, 2016, 09:39:34 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

MO by an eyelash? Lol.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 06, 2016, 09:41:37 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on November 06, 2016, 09:46:54 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.
Yea, thats quite suprising, there pessimism on missouri is interesting as well. 


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on November 06, 2016, 09:48:03 pm
Losing Iowa and winning Missouri would create a seriously cracked out map!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2016, 09:49:00 pm
Losing Iowa and winning Missouri would create a seriously cracked out map!
These are Senate numbers.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 06, 2016, 09:58:36 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.
Yea, thats quite suprising, there pessimism on missouri is interesting as well.  

Not really. Roy Blunt is probably the underdog in this race and has run a hilariously incompetent campaign.

NC is definitely a surprise, though.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 06, 2016, 10:00:20 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.
Yea, thats quite suprising, there pessimism on missouri is interesting as well.  

Not really. Roy Blunt is probably the underdog in this race and has run a hilariously incompetent campaign.

NC is definitely a surprise, though.
I would lol if Kander wins and Missouri has two democrats in the senate.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: swf541 on November 06, 2016, 10:08:10 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood  6m6 minutes ago
senior GOP Senate strategist #2: lose IL/WI/NV/PA/NC. Win OH/NH/FL/IN. win MO by an eyelash (but wouldn't surprise me if Kander won). 50-50

Surprising to see them more bearish on NC than MO and NH.
Yea, thats quite suprising, there pessimism on missouri is interesting as well.  

Not really. Roy Blunt is probably the underdog in this race and has run a hilariously incompetent campaign.

NC is definitely a surprise, though.

I'm aware of Blunt's campaign I just find it suprising how much Kander will outperform Clinton in MO


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on November 06, 2016, 10:16:19 pm
Losing Iowa and winning Missouri would create a seriously cracked out map!
These are Senate numbers.

Still, I stand by it.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 06, 2016, 11:07:58 pm
Each side nervous about NC, could be a close one.

@jmartNYT  49s50 seconds ago

Talked to a smart NC R who thinks Hillary squeaks it out there. 

But Dems nervous, coulda used another day of early voting today.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: RI on November 06, 2016, 11:16:14 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  13m13 minutes ago
Coin flip but remember Clinton ground game- especially with early vote- allowed her to exceed expectations in primary there

Clinton exceeded expectations in Ohio due to anti-Trump cross-overs, not her ground game. ::)


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on November 06, 2016, 11:17:11 pm
Each side nervous about NC, could be a close one.

@jmartNYT  49s50 seconds ago

Talked to a smart NC R who thinks Hillary squeaks it out there. 

But Dems nervous, coulda used another day of early voting today.

If the presidential ends up being a squeaker, it bodes well for Cooper and Burr.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 07, 2016, 03:18:07 am
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  13m13 minutes ago
Coin flip but remember Clinton ground game- especially with early vote- allowed her to exceed expectations in primary there

Clinton exceeded expectations in Ohio due to anti-Trump cross-overs, not her ground game. ::)

Actually no. The cross-over didn't do THAT much. She over-performed because pollsters freaked out due to the MI f*** up and f***ed that up too.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 07, 2016, 06:47:54 am
This story from CBS validates some of what the Targetsmart guy was saying about Florida

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/floridas-split-ticket-voters-turn-out-for-clinton-and-rubio/


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Castro on November 07, 2016, 03:12:23 pm
Charles GasparinoVerified account
‏@CGasparino
#BreakingPoll  @realDonaldTrump camp internal polls have him down 2 in Fla; plus 1 in NV; up 2 in NH more now @FoxBusiness

Uhhhh...didn't they fire their pollster?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 07, 2016, 03:13:54 pm
PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls  13m13 minutes ago
Coin flip but remember Clinton ground game- especially with early vote- allowed her to exceed expectations in primary there

Clinton exceeded expectations in Ohio due to anti-Trump cross-overs, not her ground game. ::)
lol


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Yank2133 on November 07, 2016, 03:14:13 pm
Charles GasparinoVerified account
‏@CGasparino
#BreakingPoll  @realDonaldTrump camp internal polls have him down 2 in Fla; plus 1 in NV; up 2 in NH more now @FoxBusiness

Uhhhh...didn't they fire their pollster?

Lol, I love how they leak this as if it is good news.

If he is losing FL, then he has lost the election.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 07, 2016, 03:14:18 pm
Charles GasparinoVerified account
‏@CGasparino
#BreakingPoll  @realDonaldTrump camp internal polls have him down 2 in Fla; plus 1 in NV; up 2 in NH more now @FoxBusiness

Uhhhh...didn't they fire their pollster?
Maybe they pulled in another sucker.  Still, when your internals have you down two, it isn't looking too good for you.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 07, 2016, 03:15:28 pm
Charles GasparinoVerified account
‏@CGasparino
#BreakingPoll  @realDonaldTrump camp internal polls have him down 2 in Fla; plus 1 in NV; up 2 in NH more now @FoxBusiness

Uhhhh...didn't they fire their pollster?
Dude's ed, Florida confirmed for HRC


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 07, 2016, 03:21:27 pm
Quote

Campaign stopped tracking late last week,hasn't done FL tracking other than Cambridge Analytica/TargetPoint in 2 wks
https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/795722142159605760


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 07, 2016, 04:15:57 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood
Trump campaign chief Bannon, when I asked for his Election Day results forecast: "We're too busy winning this baby. I don't want to jinx it"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on November 07, 2016, 04:17:54 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood
Trump campaign chief Bannon, when I asked for his Election Day results forecast: "We're too busy winning this baby. I don't want to jinx it"

ahahaha for a neonazi Bannon makes me laugh.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 07, 2016, 04:18:41 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood
Trump campaign chief Bannon, when I asked for his Election Day results forecast: "We're too busy winning this baby. I don't want to jinx it"

He should have said "we'll have the best results."


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on November 07, 2016, 04:20:16 pm
John Harwood ‏@JohnJHarwood
Trump campaign chief Bannon, when I asked for his Election Day results forecast: "We're too busy winning this baby. I don't want to jinx it"

He should have said "we'll have the best results."

we only hire the best results, folks


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 07, 2016, 04:23:28 pm
Trump campaign's internal polling is an oxymoron.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Likely Voter on November 07, 2016, 05:18:16 pm
John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 07, 2016, 05:20:42 pm
John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"

Just enough time for some recovery.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 07, 2016, 05:30:58 pm
John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"

My guess is they are up 5 in their internals and the breathing room reference is the path to 270 (either PA or MI) got within a couple of points but is now likely Dem again


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 07, 2016, 06:22:55 pm
PPP says this about the following states

VA: Clinton +5 (4-way), Clinton +6 H2H
Believes Clinton will win NH and NV by at least 3
Clinton +2.5% in FL
Clinton +4 in PA
Clinton +5 in CO
Agrees with the Upshot poll of NC
Ohio is the closest state, within a point either way


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: matthew27 on November 07, 2016, 06:33:00 pm
Feeling a lot better about Colorado and PA with this data.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2016, 06:52:48 pm
Are the PPP numbers polls are predictions?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 07, 2016, 06:55:04 pm
Are the PPP numbers polls are predictions?
I think so?


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 07, 2016, 07:00:37 pm
Feeling a lot better about Colorado and PA with this data.
If either one is lost or uncertain, there will be crow for Thanksgiving AND Christmas here!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on November 07, 2016, 10:21:47 pm
John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"

b-b-ut I thought the Comey letter had no effect!


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: RalstonSucks on November 07, 2016, 11:34:24 pm
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/795818400320724993

Two senior PA Dems - 1 of them named Ed Rendell - tell me they expect Hillary to only win PA by 2 1/2 to 3.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 07, 2016, 11:35:43 pm
Not good for Mcginty


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Bevinevitable on November 07, 2016, 11:56:21 pm
You guys know Rendell concern trolls about PA literally every election, right? It's even a running joke among PA politicos. Here's just two examples:

Quote
Democrats say they remain confident, but there are clear undercurrents of concern. Governor Rendell and party officials have asked Obama to spend more time in the state to counter the McCain offensive

Quote
McCain McMentum?

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell wants Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., back in the Keystone State. He's worried Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could still pull off a victory there.

"I don’t want to be selfish,” Rendell told CNN. “But I’m still a little nervous, so I have asked Obama to come back. We understand he’s got demands from 20 different states, but we’d like to see him here.”

This was a week before the 2008 election. As we all know, Obama won by 11 points.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 08, 2016, 01:43:44 am
John Heilmann on WADR says that the Clinton team says their internals "bottomed out" last Wednesday following the Comey letter with the race getting "tight" and since then things have improved with some "breathing room"

b-b-ut I thought the Comey letter had no effect!

Tom Jensen of PPP and some other Democratic pollsters on twitter said that the Comey letter had no significant impact on their numbers.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 08, 2016, 08:14:53 am
For those fretting about MI
https://twitter.com/ericheggie

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
Some of you may wonder why  @realDonaldTrump will not win Michigan, well let me lay out why from both public and some internal data 1/?"

"So first is the public data, in last weeks Fox 2 Detroit poll Trump was losing over 65 year olds by double digits to Clinton, which... 2/?"

"matches what we are seeing internally.  He's losing them BIGLY. You can't win MI as an R while losing over 65 year olds. Now for the 3/?"

"Internal info. We have over 160K hard IDs in MI.  Our last persuasion pass was Friday and we were talking to a very bad universe for us 4/?"

"If a Republican is going to win MI they should be winning that universe, but anyone want to take a guess how late Undecideds/R's moved? 6/x"

"Clinton won that universe by 5 pts, which she should not be doing if Trump has any hope of winning in Michigan. #MAGA ain't happening. 7/7"

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@jcpolls I think she wins it closer to 8.  Around what Obama did."

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@akaashkolluri no we are not. All the polls show her winning Michigan. Data from the field shows it too."


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: psychprofessor on November 08, 2016, 10:39:08 am
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on November 08, 2016, 10:48:55 am
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

That's basically my call give or take NE-2.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: RJEvans on November 08, 2016, 11:57:45 am
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Snek! on November 08, 2016, 12:03:05 pm
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.

If you do a Rule of Four, it will probably be like Clinton 48, Trump 46 and basically New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and maybe Colorado by the skin of her teeth while eventually losing Florida and North Carolina between 1 and 2.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 08, 2016, 12:08:49 pm
David Plouffe final call (Obama 2008 mastermind)

Clinton 50 / Trump 44

Clinton 342 EV's , Obama 2012 states, plus NC and NE-2, possibly 348 with Iowa

I wish I had his confidence pills he seems to be popping nonstop.

If you do a Rule of Four, it will probably be like Clinton 48, Trump 46 and basically New Hampshire, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and maybe Colorado by the skin of her teeth while eventually losing Florida and North Carolina between 1 and 2.
Or Clinton by 10.


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: marty on November 19, 2016, 10:53:19 pm
This thread is hilarious .


Title: Re: Internal poll megathread
Post by: Doctor Imperialism on November 20, 2016, 09:02:08 am
For those fretting about MI
https://twitter.com/ericheggie

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
Some of you may wonder why  @realDonaldTrump will not win Michigan, well let me lay out why from both public and some internal data 1/?"

"So first is the public data, in last weeks Fox 2 Detroit poll Trump was losing over 65 year olds by double digits to Clinton, which... 2/?"

"matches what we are seeing internally.  He's losing them BIGLY. You can't win MI as an R while losing over 65 year olds. Now for the 3/?"

"Internal info. We have over 160K hard IDs in MI.  Our last persuasion pass was Friday and we were talking to a very bad universe for us 4/?"

"If a Republican is going to win MI they should be winning that universe, but anyone want to take a guess how late Undecideds/R's moved? 6/x"

"Clinton won that universe by 5 pts, which she should not be doing if Trump has any hope of winning in Michigan. #MAGA ain't happening. 7/7"

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@jcpolls I think she wins it closer to 8.  Around what Obama did."

"Eric Heggie ‏@ericheggie  6h6 hours ago
.@akaashkolluri no we are not. All the polls show her winning Michigan. Data from the field shows it too."

:(