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Title: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Mr. Morden on July 25, 2016, 05:08:40 AM CNN/ORC national poll, conducted July 22-24:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/25/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-poll/index.html https://twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/757516639516684288 () https://twitter.com/Phil_Mattingly/status/757516901710987264 () Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 25, 2016, 05:10:25 AM Well... that's unpleasant. I assume we'll see a Trump tweet shortly.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on July 25, 2016, 05:11:34 AM Teh sky is falling! ;)
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Phony Moderate on July 25, 2016, 05:15:01 AM RonPaul.gif
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on July 25, 2016, 05:19:26 AM geez that's a 10 point swing on the 4 way
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: henster on July 25, 2016, 05:26:17 AM 68% of Americans don't find her honest or trustworthy. I don't even think Nixon had it that bad.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on July 25, 2016, 05:27:00 AM Trump favorability rating up to 46%.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Mr. Morden on July 25, 2016, 05:28:07 AM fav/unfav %:
Pence 39/26% for +13% Trump 46/51% for -5% Clinton 41/55% for -14% Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on July 25, 2016, 05:31:42 AM 68% of Americans don't find her honest or trustworthy. I don't even think Nixon had it that bad. I'll get you a towel. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Mr. Morden on July 25, 2016, 05:44:07 AM Among Dems and Dem-leaning Indies who prefer Sanders for the nomination, here’s their GE support in the 4-way:
Clinton 64% Johnson 14% Trump 11% Stein 6% Among Republicans and Republican-leaning Indies who would have preferred someone besides Trump had won the nomination, here’s their GE support in the 4-way: Trump 66% Johnson 17% Clinton 10% Stein 4% In other news, big education gap…. white college grads: Clinton 44% Trump 39% Johnson 9% Stein 4% white non-college grads: Trump 61% Clinton 23% Johnson 8% Stein 3% Regional breakdown….. Midwest: Trump 46% Clinton 36% Johnson 9% Stein 2% Northeast: Clinton 49% Trump 33% Johnson 9% Stein 3% South: Trump 49% Clinton 36% Johnson 8% Stein 3% West: Trump 43% Clinton 39% Johnson 11% Stein 3% And Johnson still drawing most of his support from youths. He’s at 17% among voters under 45, but only 4% among voters over 65. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Trapsy on July 25, 2016, 05:49:18 AM http://survival-mastery.com/diy/construct/how-to-build-a-bunker.html
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: afleitch on July 25, 2016, 05:56:39 AM Among Dems and Dem-leaning Indies who prefer Sanders for the nomination, here’s their GE support in the 4-way: Clinton 64% Johnson 14% Trump 11% Stein 6% Among Republicans and Republican-leaning Indies who would have preferred someone besides Trump had won the nomination, here’s their GE support in the 4-way: Trump 66% Johnson 17% Clinton 10% Stein 4% In other news, big education gap…. white college grads: Clinton 44% Trump 39% Johnson 9% Stein 4% white non-college grads: Trump 61% Clinton 23% Johnson 8% Stein 3% Regional breakdown….. Midwest: Trump 46% Clinton 36% Johnson 9% Stein 2% Northeast: Clinton 49% Trump 33% Johnson 9% Stein 3% South: Trump 49% Clinton 36% Johnson 8% Stein 3% West: Trump 43% Clinton 39% Johnson 11% Stein 3% And Johnson still drawing most of his support from youths. He’s at 17% among voters under 45, but only 4% among voters over 65. Clinton again leading with white college graduates. That keeps popping up. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Know Nothing on July 25, 2016, 05:57:42 AM but but, his speech was so dark! :(
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Mr. Morden on July 25, 2016, 06:04:55 AM The story says that post-convention, Clinton actually gained among white college grads, while Trump made big gains among white non-college grads:
Quote The poll also reflects a sharpening of the education divide among whites that has been prevalent throughout the campaign. Among white voters with college degrees, Clinton actually gained ground compared with pre-convention results, going from an even 40% to 40% split to a 44% to 39% edge over Trump. That while Trump expanded his lead with white voters who do not hold a college degree from a 51% to 31% lead before the convention to a 62% to 23% lead now. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 25, 2016, 06:18:09 AM The story says that post-convention, Clinton actually gained among white college grads, while Trump made big gains among white non-college grads: Quote The poll also reflects a sharpening of the education divide among whites that has been prevalent throughout the campaign. Among white voters with college degrees, Clinton actually gained ground compared with pre-convention results, going from an even 40% to 40% split to a 44% to 39% edge over Trump. That while Trump expanded his lead with white voters who do not hold a college degree from a 51% to 31% lead before the convention to a 62% to 23% lead now. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Gass3268 on July 25, 2016, 07:09:20 AM Let's wait until next week (or even a few weeks) before everyone starts freaking out. There is still some decent fundamentals here for Clinton. Also another English only poll that only has Clinton up in the mid 40's with non-white voters, compared to the 60's when you include Spanish.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Dutch Conservative on July 25, 2016, 07:10:57 AM fav/unfav %: Pence 39/26% for +13% Trump 46/51% for -5% Clinton 41/55% for -14% This is encouraging for the Trump camp. And the fact that he is crawling towards 50%. But I presume in a week the bounce from the DNC will balance things again. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: nm825 on July 25, 2016, 07:14:13 AM But you guys told me the RNC was a disaster and Trump would get a nega-bounce!
Title: oh.... Post by: StatesPoll on July 25, 2016, 07:17:53 AM white non-college grads:
Trump 61% Clinton 23% Johnson 8% Stein 3% wow...... Non-White Hillary 61% TRUMP 21% Johnso 11% Stein 3% None of the above & No Opinion 4% Obama got 80% of non white voters in 2012 (Romney got 18%) Hillary 61% (-19%) TRUMP 21% (+3%) Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Chief Justice Keef on July 25, 2016, 07:23:20 AM ()
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: jaichind on July 25, 2016, 07:23:57 AM So despite a fairly contractional GOP convention Trump is getting a pretty normal post convention bounce. Most of this will unwind after this week but this is another sign that Trump will keep it close even if he does not win.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 25, 2016, 07:24:33 AM Week after convention. He's going to have a small lead. If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: jaichind on July 25, 2016, 07:29:15 AM RCP Clinton vs Trump average just flipped over to Trump (by 0.2%). Trump's lead in RCP will go up some more this week as some of the early July polls rolls off and the post-bounce polls comes in. Then this will reverse itself next week.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: dspNY on July 25, 2016, 07:31:23 AM RCP Clinton vs Trump average just flipped over to Trump (by 0.2%). Trump's lead in RCP will go up some more this week as some of the early July polls rolls off and the post-bounce polls comes in. Then this will reverse itself next week. All true points Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: RJEvans on July 25, 2016, 07:54:34 AM America what are you doing? I don't understand this at all.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 25, 2016, 08:01:48 AM Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: dspNY on July 25, 2016, 08:02:35 AM Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce. So you think they souped up their poll? Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Fusionmunster on July 25, 2016, 08:05:05 AM Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce. So you think they souped up their poll? The "Hillary beating Sanders by 4 points" number makes me a tad suspicious. Still, no denying Trump is getting a bump. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 25, 2016, 08:18:50 AM Give me a break, CNN is consistently one of Trump's worst pollsters (Reuters, not-withstanding). This is clearly fixed for the narrative of a horserace/convention bounce. So you think they souped up their poll? They are nearly as bad as Fox News forgetting Rand Paul and showing Jeb Bush ahead of Hillary with Trump trailing massively before flipping. I'm not buying news organizations who want storylines. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: RJEvans on July 25, 2016, 08:29:12 AM I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted.
The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: dspNY on July 25, 2016, 08:32:44 AM I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted. The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people. I did some back of the envelope math and the white vote in this poll was 76% so maybe it is souped up a little (2012 white vote was 72%). Additionally Trump leads by 39 with non-college educated whites but Clinton leads by 5 with college educated whites. They are equivalent portions of the white vote (meaning they are about the same amount of the overall electorate) so we should be seeing a Trump +17 with whites instead of Trump +22. There's how you get his lead. It was souped up a little with far more whites without a college degree and a lower % of POC Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: StatesPoll on July 25, 2016, 08:40:16 AM I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted. The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people. But Hillary is not comfortably ahead of minorities at the CNN/ORC July 22-24 Poll. Minorities Voters(Non-White Voters) Election 2012: Obama 80% Romney 18% Other 2%. Spread: Obama +62% CNN/ORC July 22-24: Hillary 61% TRUMP 21% Johnson 11% Stein 3%. Spread: Hillary +40% [url]http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf]http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf][url]http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf (http://[url=http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/07/25/trump.clinton.poll.pdf)[/url] Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: afleitch on July 25, 2016, 08:40:35 AM I will say, given the demographic breakdown among whites (grads vs no college) the Latino Decisions poll and what we expect from African-Americans, Hillary should be comfortably ahead in the electoral college. I just don't know how this poll was weighted. The fact there are no numbers fro young people says they undersampled young people. If we look at Trump v Clinton directly Trump has 62% of the white vote. Romney got 60%. Clinton gets 76% of the non white vote. Obama also got 76%. If turnout is the same as 2012 then it's 51-49 Hillary. If we look at white college grads Clinton is at 52 when Obama got 44. On non grads it's Trump on 69 while Romney got 62. Numbers like that lock Clinton into the Obama 08/12 states (FL VA CO etc) but perhaps give Trump a shot at OH PA. The internals don't really point to a different picture than what we've seen all summer. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Sir Mohamed on July 25, 2016, 08:47:37 AM Well, just a brief post-convention surge for Drumpf that I expect to fade quickly in the next few days.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 25, 2016, 08:59:30 AM Week after convention. He's going to have a small lead. If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry. Look at Bush 2000/Bush 2004/Obama 2008/Obama 2012. All were up 5-10 after their conventions, and generally closer to the 10. Bush 2004 was up 7-8, Obama 2008 was up 3-4, Obama 2012 was up 3-4. Let's wait, until RCP'll have only post-RNC polls. But it seems, that race will be much tighter, than I thought. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Gass3268 on July 25, 2016, 09:03:14 AM This poll did not have a Spanish option, the CBS poll (which shows essentially a tie) does.
I think that is something to look for as we go down the stretch. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Devout Centrist on July 25, 2016, 09:03:23 AM Week after convention. He's going to have a small lead. If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry. Look at Bush 2000/Bush 2004/Obama 2008/Obama 2012. All were up 5-10 after their conventions, and generally closer to the 10. Bush 2004 was up 7-8, Obama 2008 was up 3-4, Obama 2012 was up 3-4. Let's wait, until RCP'll have only post-RNC polls. But it seems, that race will be much tighter, than I thought. I still believe the June Pew Poll will maintain its putatively prescient record. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: psychprofessor on July 25, 2016, 09:04:04 AM it's just one poll, relax...no meaningful cross tabs and suspicious non white numbers. let trump fans enjoy their bump and check in with cnn after the dnc.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Gass3268 on July 25, 2016, 09:06:59 AM it's just one poll, relax...no meaningful cross tabs and suspicious non white numbers. let trump fans enjoy their bump and check in with cnn after the dnc. I think the English-only vs English-Spanish is going to be key when looking at future polls. You can probably add 1-3 points nationwide to Clinton if it's English-only. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: windjammer on July 25, 2016, 09:09:16 AM Well,
Trump undeniably got a boost. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: psychprofessor on July 25, 2016, 09:10:15 AM it's just one poll, relax...no meaningful cross tabs and suspicious non white numbers. let trump fans enjoy their bump and check in with cnn after the dnc. I think the English-only vs English-Spanish is going to be key when looking at future polls. You can probably add 1-3 points nationwide to Clinton if it's English-only. Well if Latino Decisions has her at 76 and other recent polls with Blacks have her at 85-90, then only at 66 with non-whites in this poll is really low. Plus she is ahead with college grad whites. Like I said it is one poll showing him up 3 after his convention...let's check back in after the dnc. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on July 25, 2016, 09:12:33 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Illiniwek on July 25, 2016, 09:13:21 AM Not ideal.
Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: dspNY on July 25, 2016, 09:14:13 AM it's just one poll, relax...no meaningful cross tabs and suspicious non white numbers. let trump fans enjoy their bump and check in with cnn after the dnc. I think the English-only vs English-Spanish is going to be key when looking at future polls. You can probably add 1-3 points nationwide to Clinton if it's English-only. Well if Latino Decisions has her at 76 and other recent polls with Blacks have her at 85-90, then only at 66 with non-whites in this poll is really low. Plus she is ahead with college grad whites. Like I said it is one poll showing him up 3 after his convention...let's check back in after the dnc. Yeah, if LD has her winning Latinos by 60 (an 80-20 split) and African-Americans go 90-10 like they normally do it requires Trump to win whites at 63-64% Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: pbrower2a on July 25, 2016, 09:20:58 AM The story says that post-convention, Clinton actually gained among white college grads, while Trump made big gains among white non-college grads: Quote The poll also reflects a sharpening of the education divide among whites that has been prevalent throughout the campaign. Among white voters with college degrees, Clinton actually gained ground compared with pre-convention results, going from an even 40% to 40% split to a 44% to 39% edge over Trump. That while Trump expanded his lead with white voters who do not hold a college degree from a 51% to 31% lead before the convention to a 62% to 23% lead now. Maybe non-college white people were watching the The question: will the non-college whites vote heavily in November? College-educated whites vote, and they are more likely to change the minds of white people with no college degree to not vote for Trump than non-college-educated people are likely to convince college-educated whites to vote for Trump. College-educated people are generally much more capable of persuading people than are those who did not attend college. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 25, 2016, 09:24:36 AM Week after convention. He's going to have a small lead. If polling avg gets to Trump +5-10 before the DNC is over, I will worry. Look at Bush 2000/Bush 2004/Obama 2008/Obama 2012. All were up 5-10 after their conventions, and generally closer to the 10. Bush 2004 was up 7-8, Obama 2008 was up 3-4, Obama 2012 was up 3-4. Let's wait, until RCP'll have only post-RNC polls. But it seems, that race will be much tighter, than I thought. I still believe the June Pew Poll will maintain its putatively prescient record. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Seriously? on July 25, 2016, 09:36:09 AM But you guys told me the RNC was a disaster and Trump would get a nega-bounce! Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Comrade Funk on July 25, 2016, 09:43:12 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on July 25, 2016, 09:56:54 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: afleitch on July 25, 2016, 10:01:55 AM Off topic, can we dispense with the idea that being 'poor' automatically makes you the salt of the earth or somehow how absolves you from being an asshole with assholish opinions just because you're poor and 'don't know any better'. It's patronising.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: psychprofessor on July 25, 2016, 10:02:27 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values. Forget the top lines in this poll. Trump is not going to win if he loses college educated whites; blacks, latinos and women. His coalition is a winning one for 1980, not 2016. As for this poll, it's just one poll with strange cross tabs and not enough information in some of them. However they got to the top line is their decision, but when you look at the breakdowns Hillary is fine. Check in with them again after the DNC...something tells me you'll see the women #'s and POC #'s significantly increase. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Seriously? on July 25, 2016, 10:10:53 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values. Forget the top lines in this poll. Trump is not going to win if he loses college educated whites; blacks, latinos and women. His coalition is a winning one for 1980, not 2016. As for this poll, it's just one poll with strange cross tabs and not enough information in some of them. However they got to the top line is their decision, but when you look at the breakdowns Hillary is fine. Check in with them again after the DNC...something tells me you'll see the women #'s and POC #'s significantly increase. Look. I am willing to look at this as Trump and the Republicans having their convention, getting a bounce from it and taking the lead. It's normal. Barring a complete disaster, Hillary! should move the needle back a few points after this week. With that said, I wish we could just bury the narrative that Trump is such a bad, evil Republican candidate that he was never going to lead and that he's only leading because X, Y and Z. Obviously, he's performing as a Republican should after a convention. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Classic Conservative on July 25, 2016, 10:11:57 AM Trumps winning in the suburbs!!!
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Gass3268 on July 25, 2016, 10:13:41 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values. Forget the top lines in this poll. Trump is not going to win if he loses college educated whites; blacks, latinos and women. His coalition is a winning one for 1980, not 2016. As for this poll, it's just one poll with strange cross tabs and not enough information in some of them. However they got to the top line is their decision, but when you look at the breakdowns Hillary is fine. Check in with them again after the DNC...something tells me you'll see the women #'s and POC #'s significantly increase. Look. I am willing to look at this as Trump and the Republicans having their convention, getting a bounce from it and taking the lead. It's normal. Barring a complete disaster, Hillary! should move the needle back a few points after this week. With that said, I wish we could just bury the narrative that Trump is such a bad, evil Republican candidate that he was never going to lead and that he's only leading because X, Y and Z. Obviously, he's performing as a Republican should after a convention. This is reasonable. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on July 25, 2016, 10:36:01 AM Except he is legitimately a bad, evil candidate. That Americans are willing to vote for him doesn't change that fact, and it's not s good reason for why he could lose.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Beet on July 25, 2016, 10:36:52 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values. This is true, but it still wouldn't hurt to be a little more compassionate. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on July 25, 2016, 10:43:39 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Reality hurts. Just because it's elitist doesn't mean I'm wrong. If you support Donald Trump you are an apologist for racism and anti-intellectualism. Maybe you've squared it by finding things to like in his other "positions" and aren't directly racist, but what you're willing to overlook in Trump's campaign speaks volumes about your values. This is true, but it still wouldn't hurt to be a little more compassionate. Maybe you don't belong to a minority group (I don't know), but it actually could hurt to show compassion. I'm not in the business of legitimizing bigotry or bigoted rhetoric. These people are, and it hurts people who could find themselves on the other end of it. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Bandit3 the Worker on July 25, 2016, 10:49:33 AM Hillary really crapped in her hat by picking Tim Kaine.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Mr. Reactionary on July 25, 2016, 11:09:29 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Agreed. I'm not going to vote for Trump but I find myself increasingly wanting him to win for no other reason than to shut up the self-entitled Hillary hacks who act as though anyone who disagrees with them is an evil stupid racist doodoo head and that Trump is some sort of modern day Hitler rather than just another asshole politician who won't do anything. That's the problem with this lesser evil nonsense ... the lesser evil is subjective from voter to voter. Embedding in your mind that its us vs them and that them is 100% objectively super dee duper evil is just as harmful as any divisive rhetoric from Trump or Hillary. Both candidates have sh**tty positions on protecting our rights and fixing the economy. A lot of voters are voting for the candidate they think will be less sh**tty. I think that's the wrong way to vote, but I'm not gonna lie and claim that anyone who supports a candidate I don't like is something something embedding racism something something systemic privilege; especially since both candidates are running racially tinged campaigns. If hacks for a corrupt party system stopped pretending that they possessed some sort of moral high ground we may not have even been thrust into this match-up in the first place. To quote the dumb Bush: We need to stop judging those who disagree by their worse examples and stop judging those who agree by our own best intentions. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Ronnie on July 25, 2016, 11:39:49 AM Polls go up and polls go down. It's pretty normal for the Republican candidate to pull ahead after the party's convention. Hillary will move ahead after the Dem convention next week.
I'll be convinced the race is competitive if Hillary is not ahead outside the margin of error after her convention bounce subsides. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: jaichind on July 25, 2016, 11:45:18 AM Polls go up and polls go down. It's pretty normal for the Republican candidate to pull ahead after the party's convention. Hillary will move ahead after the Dem convention next week. I'll be convinced the race is competitive if Hillary is not ahead outside the margin of error after her convention bounce subsides. Yep, this sounds fair. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: evergreenarbor on July 25, 2016, 11:45:35 AM Trump got a decent bounce after a convention that was heavily criticized by the media and Atlas. I see two possibilities:
1: The media and Atlas badly misread how the public perceived the convention. Maybe the public doesn't care about plagiarism or former candidates getting booed off stage - or maybe most people just weren't paying attention to anything but Trump's speech. 2: The content of a convention doesn't really matter now that polarization is as strong as it is. A great RNC would have led to the same bounce as a terrible RNC. If this is true, Hillary should get a small bounce after the DNC regardless of what happens. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Ljube on July 25, 2016, 11:50:27 AM Panicking over post convention polls.
Let's just wait for the Dem convention to finish and for the polls to stabilize before we can say anything more definitive about the state of the race. The fundamentals of the race are clear, though: 1) Trump has the working class vote (not just white working class). 2) Hillary has the educated whites. 3) Hillary has the minorities, but not at Obama's levels. These make for a slight Hillary advantage, at the moment. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: EliteLX on July 25, 2016, 12:11:46 PM T H E D O N A L D Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Associate Justice PiT on July 25, 2016, 12:16:04 PM But you guys told me the RNC was a disaster and Trump would get a nega-bounce! Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 25, 2016, 12:21:20 PM 1) Trump has the working class vote (not just white working class). False. Education and wealth/class are not all that related, especially in this election. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Ebsy on July 25, 2016, 12:33:45 PM Interestingly, Clinton actually gained with college educated whites in this poll.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Tender Branson on July 25, 2016, 12:43:55 PM Not much a surprise ...
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Fargobison on July 25, 2016, 12:45:56 PM Interestingly, Clinton actually gained with college educated whites in this poll. That is probably the main thing I am going to take away from it. A convention with a heavily scripted speech was a scenario where I thought Trump would gain a bit. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Senator-elect Spark on July 25, 2016, 12:48:48 PM Well that's good news. Post-convention bounce. DNC already hasn't started well.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Xing on July 25, 2016, 12:51:18 PM *Yawn* Wake me up when it's August.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: DrScholl on July 25, 2016, 12:58:26 PM That's pretty weak for a post convention. +3 is not necessarily what we see post convention, usually it's about +10. The Democratic Convention will be more positive and it won't take that much to wipe out +3.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on July 25, 2016, 12:59:29 PM That's pretty weak for a post convention. +3 is not necessarily what we see post convention, usually it's about +10. The Democratic Convention will be more positive and it won't take that much to wipe out +3. I appreciate your optimism, but... Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on July 25, 2016, 01:10:50 PM But you guys told me the RNC was a disaster and Trump would get a nega-bounce! Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Reginald on July 25, 2016, 01:46:19 PM Well the silver lining in this, if it's true that the convention was this successful, is that Ted Cruz massively miscalculated and really shot himself in the foot going forward. We can only hope!
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Wiz in Wis on July 25, 2016, 01:50:29 PM Honest question... wasn't the previous CNN poll conducted pre-FBI? If so, then the "convention" bump might actually be quite a bit smaller than this would suggest.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on July 25, 2016, 01:52:15 PM But That's it? Only 3 point bounce? I honestly expected it to be like a 7 point bounce.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Seriously? on July 25, 2016, 01:55:15 PM But That's it? Only 3 point bounce? I honestly expected it to be like a 7 point bounce. The 7/13-16 CNN/ORC poll was Clinton +7. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Associate Justice PiT on July 25, 2016, 02:00:16 PM But That's it? Only 3 point bounce? I honestly expected it to be like a 7 point bounce. The 7/13-16 CNN/ORC poll was Clinton +7. Base rates are important here. It's not like Clinton and Trump were tied before the convention. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: DrScholl on July 25, 2016, 02:02:29 PM In other news, big education gap…. white college grads: Clinton 44% Trump 39% Johnson 9% Stein 4% white non-college grads: Trump 61% Clinton 23% Johnson 8% Stein 3% If these numbers actually pan out, Trump still would lose. He can't lose white college graduates and win, even if he does increase the Republican share of the white non-college graduate vote. I used the demographics calculator from 538 and using the numbers from this poll did not result in a Trump win. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Seriously? on July 25, 2016, 02:03:12 PM But That's it? Only 3 point bounce? I honestly expected it to be like a 7 point bounce. The 7/13-16 CNN/ORC poll was Clinton +7. Base rates are important here. It's not like Clinton and Trump were tied before the convention. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Ebsy on July 25, 2016, 02:04:10 PM What King remarked in the other place was that CNN/ORC apparently thinks white non-college voter turnout is going to swell to match white college educated turnout. To be frank, that seems extremely unlikely to me, but there is no way to know until election day.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 25, 2016, 02:15:10 PM What King remarked in the other place was that CNN/ORC apparently thinks white non-college voter turnout is going to swell to match white college educated turnout. To be frank, that seems extremely unlikely to me, but there is no way to know until election day. From my recollection, it was roughly 50-50 in many GOP primaries (and in fairness, some were 60-40 in exceptional states). I don't know what primaries were in the past, but that seems quite a bit more than you'd expect in a GOP primary. Hard to draw conclusions because many are independents in the former category and Democrats in the latter, but within the GOP for low turnout elections, it was quite strong. I'd need to look at it deeper. In other news, big education gap…. white college grads: Clinton 44% Trump 39% Johnson 9% Stein 4% white non-college grads: Trump 61% Clinton 23% Johnson 8% Stein 3% If these numbers actually pan out, Trump still would lose. He can't lose white college graduates and win, even if he does increase the Republican share of the white non-college graduate vote. Learn math. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: The Vorlon on July 25, 2016, 02:45:33 PM Trump favorability rating up to 46%. "up" to 46%... tells us how bad things really are.... Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: MK on July 25, 2016, 06:02:01 PM These are great numbers especially the favorable numbers moving for trump. I've often said that all Trump has to do is slightly convince people that he can actually be Presidential. Once that happens then Hillary is toast. Then again Hillary should get a bounce as well. The Hillary hacks on here are disgusting.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: IceSpear on July 25, 2016, 06:24:17 PM I bet this poll caused Xanax stock to shoot up drastically.
Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Mr. Morden on July 25, 2016, 07:12:04 PM What King remarked in the other place was that CNN/ORC apparently thinks white non-college voter turnout is going to swell to match white college educated turnout. I thought this was a poll of registered voters? In which case, the assumptions are about the pool of registered voters in the USA, not the turnout in November, no? Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Cruzcrew on July 26, 2016, 05:36:38 AM Disgusting that Americans would rally around the worst convention ever. F-ck this man and the voters he attracts. Agreed. I'm not going to vote for Trump but I find myself increasingly wanting him to win for no other reason than to shut up the self-entitled Hillary hacks who act as though anyone who disagrees with them is an evil stupid racist doodoo head and that Trump is some sort of modern day Hitler rather than just another asshole politician who won't do anything. That's the problem with this lesser evil nonsense ... the lesser evil is subjective from voter to voter. Embedding in your mind that its us vs them and that them is 100% objectively super dee duper evil is just as harmful as any divisive rhetoric from Trump or Hillary. Both candidates have sh**tty positions on protecting our rights and fixing the economy. A lot of voters are voting for the candidate they think will be less sh**tty. I think that's the wrong way to vote, but I'm not gonna lie and claim that anyone who supports a candidate I don't like is something something embedding racism something something systemic privilege; especially since both candidates are running racially tinged campaigns. If hacks for a corrupt party system stopped pretending that they possessed some sort of moral high ground we may not have even been thrust into this match-up in the first place. To quote the dumb Bush: We need to stop judging those who disagree by their worse examples and stop judging those who agree by our own best intentions. As much as I think Trump is a douchebag, these Hillary hacks don't realize the absurd partisan fashion in which they whine drives more people who find such an attitude ridiculous to end up supporting Trump. Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Lachi on July 26, 2016, 06:19:51 AM Well that's good news. Post-convention bounce. DNC already hasn't started well. And you thought the RNC first night was better? Title: Re: CNN/ORC national poll: Trump 48% Clinton 45% Post by: Gass3268 on July 26, 2016, 08:19:47 AM This poll is starting to feel a bit like an outlier.
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