Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: JRP1994 on July 28, 2016, 11:09:19 AM



Title: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: JRP1994 on July 28, 2016, 11:09:19 AM
https://twitter.com/davidpaleologos/status/758692937593225216

Clinton: 46
Trump: 37
Johnson: 5
Stein: 3

Clinton: 50
Trump: 41


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: The Other Castro on July 28, 2016, 11:10:57 AM
Yeah, PA is not voting to the right of OH. Keep chasing that fools gold though.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Xing on July 28, 2016, 11:11:39 AM
inb4 Trumpsters call this junk, while buying all of the Trump friendly polls here.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Horus on July 28, 2016, 11:12:01 AM
Finally some good news.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: dspNY on July 28, 2016, 11:12:52 AM
Great poll! Could be an extra convention bump though as the DNC will get more press in PA than anywhere else. We'll use everything we can get


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Wiz in Wis on July 28, 2016, 11:13:40 AM
Dayum...


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: The Other Castro on July 28, 2016, 11:17:05 AM
Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.

That part is pretty suspect.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: swf541 on July 28, 2016, 11:17:45 AM
Nice


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: windjammer on July 28, 2016, 11:18:57 AM
Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.
I agree with you.

PPP is polling PA this week end, we will know more about this race next week.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Dr. Arch on July 28, 2016, 11:19:18 AM
Great news. This week has been quite alright :)


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Wiz in Wis on July 28, 2016, 11:19:31 AM
Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.

If politics are really that polarized, why would we expect the Dem senate candidate to be more than a couple points off the presidential... Feingold and Clinton are very close in Marquette's WI polls... why isn't that seen as "garbage".


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: windjammer on July 28, 2016, 11:21:15 AM
Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.

If politics are really that polarized, why would we expect the Dem senate candidate to be more than a couple points off the presidential... Feingold and Clinton are very close in Marquette's WI polls... why isn't that seen as "garbage".
I think his point was that Mcginty shouldn't be so high, so Clinton as well with polarization.



Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: MT Treasurer on July 28, 2016, 11:24:18 AM
Lets wait for PPP's PA numbers. I don't doubt that Clinton is getting a convention bounce right now, but there's no way she's up 9. Keep in mind that Suffolk also found Clinton ahead of Trump in Ohio during the RNC.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: swf541 on July 28, 2016, 11:26:40 AM
Lets wait for PPP's PA numbers. I don't doubt that Clinton is getting a convention bounce right now, but there's no way she's up 9. Keep in mind that Suffolk also found Clinton ahead of Trump in Ohio during the RNC.

Fair enough, though I do think Clinton is leading in PA and McGinty is at worst tied


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: F_S_USATN on July 28, 2016, 11:45:51 AM
Trump should be able to keep it to single digits unlike McCain


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Crumpets on July 28, 2016, 11:46:55 AM
"I guess somebody's gonna have to suck the Big Dog's dick."
-Jon Stewart


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Ebsy on July 28, 2016, 11:49:14 AM
Obviously I am interested in PPP's numbers, but this isn't the only poll to show Pennsylvania not particularly close.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on July 28, 2016, 11:50:44 AM
1.McGinty was up by 3% in the last PA poll from Marist, not exactly a junk pollster.
2.Suffolk's OH poll had them tied in a 2 way 44-44, which is almost exactly what PPP showed a few days later (45-45).

Great poll. Perhaps the Luzerne fascists won't give the election to Trump after all.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Crumpets on July 28, 2016, 11:51:59 AM
Also, why is this poll getting almost no weight in the 538 average for PA? They have it listed below 5 polls from June and two polls from April (!).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Ebsy on July 28, 2016, 11:54:25 AM
Maybe the small sample size?


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: dirks on July 28, 2016, 11:55:01 AM
GOP has been chasing the dragon in PA for a while. Trump won't win it. Best chance was 2004 and even Bush couldn't pull it off then with a highly organized well run campaign and fully united party.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on July 28, 2016, 11:58:17 AM
Glorious news! This means the 269-269 Trump-Kaine map is still alive! Glad to see the SEPA Catholics pulling together to make this a true possibility.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Wiz in Wis on July 28, 2016, 11:59:58 AM
Also, why is this poll getting almost no weight in the 538 average for PA? They have it listed below 5 polls from June and two polls from April (!).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus

The weights vary depending on the model. In the now-cast, this poll has a weight of 2.5. Also, this poll single-handedly moved the NATIONAL now-cast by nearly 6 points.  


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Lief 🗽 on July 28, 2016, 12:04:16 PM
Also, why is this poll getting almost no weight in the 538 average for PA? They have it listed below 5 polls from June and two polls from April (!).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus

Nate gets more traffic (and as revenue) if he shows Trump winning.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Reginald on July 28, 2016, 12:09:51 PM
http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/7_28_2016_marginals.pdf (http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/7_28_2016_marginals.pdf)

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/7_28_2016_tables.pdf (http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/7_28_2016_tables.pdf)

Anyway, I don't really buy Clinton at merely -4.5 favorability all of a sudden.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: JRP1994 on July 28, 2016, 12:11:00 PM
Also, why is this poll getting almost no weight in the 538 average for PA? They have it listed below 5 polls from June and two polls from April (!).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus

Nate gets more traffic (and as revenue) if he shows Trump winning.

He's losing money then, because Trump has never once been winning in the polls plus or polls only forecasts.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Podgy the Bear on July 28, 2016, 12:11:23 PM
Trump should be able to keep it to single digits unlike McCain

But for Trump to lose Pennsylvania (especially after everyone is touting his huge appeal to the state's electorate) would be a big blow to the Rust Belt strategy--really the only viable option.  With Virginia off the table, losing Pennsylvania means there's very little left for Trump (Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin) to pull it out.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Lief 🗽 on July 28, 2016, 12:25:54 PM
Wow, Nate gives this poll HALF the weight of a month-old Gravis poll! What a fraud this loser is!


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Tender Branson on July 28, 2016, 12:28:43 PM
Poll was done from Mon. to Wed. this week, so this might include some sort of bump for Hillary already.

Plus, Kaine has good favourable ratings - which might help Hillary there.

On the other hand, Suffolk is not really a solid pollster.

I'd wait another month to get a better picture.

Also, Bernie having a 60-29 favourable rating ... :)


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Gass3268 on July 28, 2016, 12:39:02 PM
If these numbers on people's opinion on Muslims and Trump's ban are even close to correct, I think he jumped the shark.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: heatcharger on July 28, 2016, 12:39:18 PM
Wow, Nate gives this poll HALF the weight of a month-old Gravis poll! What a fraud this loser is!

He used to be highly respectable, but now he has his ESPN overlords to worry about, so he's keeping up the horse race narrative for ad revenue. Sad!


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: DrScholl on July 28, 2016, 12:50:36 PM
The suburbs are critical in Pennsylvania and that is where the statewide vote is decided. Trump is a really terrible fit for suburban voters.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: EliteLX on July 28, 2016, 01:00:12 PM
Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Gass3268 on July 28, 2016, 01:04:11 PM
I think after Marist and Suffolk, we can declare that Quinnipiac poll was a "junk poll!"


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 28, 2016, 01:37:35 PM
Also, why is this poll getting almost no weight in the 538 average for PA? They have it listed below 5 polls from June and two polls from April (!).

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/#plus
Wow, Nate gives this poll HALF the weight of a month-old Gravis poll! What a fraud this loser is!
Wow, Nate gives this poll HALF the weight of a month-old Gravis poll! What a fraud this loser is!

He used to be highly respectable, but now he has his ESPN overlords to worry about, so he's keeping up the horse race narrative for ad revenue. Sad!

Calm down, hacks! Their model gives less weight to the polls conducting during/directly after conventions. Take a look at nationals polls. New polls, where Trump leads are getting very little weight as well.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/#plus (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/#plus)

So for example CBS News/New York Times polls from JUL. 22-24 is getting less weight than their poll from    JUL. 8-12 :)


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: IceSpear on July 28, 2016, 02:43:33 PM
Dominating!

It's worth noting that this poll is much more consistent with PA's party registration statistics than the Quinnipiac poll was.

This looks like a convention bounce, particularly with Hillary's improved favorabilities (44-48) and most people saying she shouldn't have been indicted. McGinty only running 2 behind Hillary seems a bit sketchy though. Marist had Hillary up 9 as well with McGinty running 6 behind, which looked a lot more realistic.

So where are the concern trolls like ProgressiveCanadian and the right wing trolls who were gloating a few days ago? Please guys, lrn2politics.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: IceSpear on July 28, 2016, 02:47:03 PM
Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

No they won't. Just like Democrats had no reason to panic from any of these polls in the last week.

If there's similar numbers in a few weeks, then you're correct.

I think after Marist and Suffolk, we can declare that Quinnipiac poll was a "junk poll!"

That was already obvious, lol. PA voting to the right of OH is comical.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on July 28, 2016, 04:23:35 PM
Huge poll


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Brittain33 on July 28, 2016, 04:29:26 PM
Suffolk is the Gold Standard


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: pbrower2a on July 28, 2016, 07:56:16 PM
New normal or an outlier? Good question. Which Party solved more of its problems in its convention?

I think we are going to see more polls in which someone cracks 50% or both crack 45%.

Holding the Convention in the state is unlikely to result in the swing of that state.

"Likely voters" will reflect a midterm result.  In Pennsylvania, Democrats operate the GOTV drives to ensure that more than the "likely voters" come out to vote. 


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: pbrower2a on July 28, 2016, 08:06:07 PM
Katie McGinty leads Pat Toomey by 7.

Garbage poll.

That part is pretty suspect.

Not if Senator Pat Toomey has to depend upon a strong performance by the Republican nominee in the Presidential election. I expect that there will be more Toomey-and-Clinton voters than Trump-and-McGinley voters...

Does the re-election of Senator Pat Toomey depend upon a strong Republican vote? He barely got elected in the Republican wave of 2010, and if he needs a Republican wave to get re-elected, then he is cooked in this election.

As in 2008 and 2012, partisan realities can solidify after the Conventions. It is my gut feeling that while the Republicans solidified their base they did not strengthen themselves much outside that base. Democrats probably had a stronger outreach beyond their base -- if this poll reflects reality.

Approval ratings for Pat Toomey have been low. I doubt that he has hitched his star to Donald Trump, a risky proposition for someone with some political caution.   He will get more votes in Pennsylvania than Donald Trump, but he can also still lose. 


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Fuzzybigfoot on July 28, 2016, 08:36:44 PM
OH THANK GOD


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: HAnnA MArin County on July 28, 2016, 10:08:31 PM
But muh angry white working class/trend R whites in Pennsylvania!


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: dspNY on July 28, 2016, 11:14:12 PM
It might be a double digits lead for Hillary next week in PA because the convention's press will be positive


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Sir Mohamed on July 29, 2016, 02:05:17 AM
Still early, but I'm sure that PA won't be as close as expected. Hillary will win by more than five points. I'm so sure that I bet 100$ on it with my neighbor, who is a Trump supporter.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Illiniwek on July 29, 2016, 07:27:20 AM
Yeeeee this is a good sign. I look forward to seeing the DNC bump polls over this next week.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Badger on July 29, 2016, 12:13:15 PM
Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: Hammy on July 30, 2016, 04:41:25 PM
Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

When are the PPP polls released?


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: JerryArkansas on July 30, 2016, 05:31:37 PM
Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

When are the PPP polls released?
It runs the weekend, and they are also releasing a national poll as well.  So maybe Wednesday, Friday at latest.


Title: Re: PA-Suffolk: Clinton +9
Post by: windjammer on July 30, 2016, 06:03:57 PM
Senate race numbers make this look suspicious, going to wait for PPP.

If PPP shows similar numbers, the Trump campaign has reason to start panicking.

When are the PPP polls released?
Tuesday or Wednesday I guess.


Title: PA: Suffolk University: Clinton up 9 in PA
Post by: IceSpear on July 31, 2016, 09:51:06 PM
New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Suffolk University on 2016-07-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220160727063)

Summary: D: 50%, R: 41%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.suffolk.edu/news/66944.php)