Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: JRP1994 on July 30, 2016, 09:49:47 am



Title: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: JRP1994 on July 30, 2016, 09:49:47 am
https://t.co/4W3pV4LVl6

Among likely voters, Clinton garners 46% support to Trump’s 31%.  Libertarian Gary Johnson now captures 7% of the vote, while Jill Stein sits at 2%.

A RABA Research poll conducted the day after the Republican convention showed a tighter race, with Clinton at 39% and Trump at 34%. Johnson was at 8% in that survey, while Stein found 3% support.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: LLR on July 30, 2016, 09:52:15 am
https://t.co/4W3pV4LVl6

likely voters

Clinton garners 46% support to Trump’s 31%. 

:o


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Mehmentum on July 30, 2016, 09:52:36 am
Wow!  Hopefully we can get some polls to confirm this!


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: dspNY on July 30, 2016, 09:55:47 am
()

For real, it's a little too good to be true


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: North Fulton Swing on July 30, 2016, 09:57:05 am
Wonderful news, RABA!!! (whoever you are)


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Mehmentum on July 30, 2016, 09:59:47 am
FWIW, the poll had Trump getting a 7 point bump from the RNC (in reality, it was a 4 to 5 point bump).  The poll's results seem to favor Clinton, and its pretty new pollster as well, so I'd take it with some salt unless/until we get some confirmation.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Tender Branson on July 30, 2016, 10:01:51 am
This is probably Hillary's Overtime Politics ...


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: dspNY on July 30, 2016, 10:02:05 am
Wow!  Hopefully we can get some polls to confirm this!

Hillary getting 14% of Repubs. Let's see if other polls have moved #NeverTrump all the way across to HRC before we celebrate


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Arch on July 30, 2016, 10:06:57 am
Holy moly +15. She's also ahead with Women+22.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: michelle on July 30, 2016, 10:08:13 am
BEAUTIFUL!!

But it really seems to good to be true.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: The Other Castro on July 30, 2016, 10:18:08 am
538 adjusted their last poll from Clinton +5 to Clinton +3. While I highly doubt Clinton is leading by this much, this is a good indication of pretty sizeable bump.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: john cage bubblegum on July 30, 2016, 10:19:05 am
Holy moly!  Although they're kind of an unkown pollster (who has been Clinton friendly), this is a good start.  I'm still eagerly anticipating the polls from the heavy hitters that we should be getting on Sunday.  I'm sure this will be on the high end of Clinton leads.

Interesting that their sample is only D+4, with Trump doing poorly with Republicans and Clinton winning by 8 among those who identify as Other.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Devout Centrist on July 30, 2016, 10:20:57 am
Crap poll.

As much as I want this to be true, I wouldn't get my hopes up.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: HillOfANight on July 30, 2016, 10:21:49 am
https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/759399787330494464

Trend

7/12: Clinton +12
7/23: Clinton +5
7/30: Clinton +15


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Maxwell on July 30, 2016, 10:26:01 am
This is probably Hillary's Overtime Politics ...

yes this is a joke poll.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on July 30, 2016, 10:35:41 am
WOWOWOW!!!


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on July 30, 2016, 10:38:24 am
Lmao junk junk junk


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: The Mikado on July 30, 2016, 10:50:08 am
I think the "don't trust a polling firm no one has ever heard of before" rule applies in this case.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Devout Centrist on July 30, 2016, 11:00:10 am
I think the "don't trust a polling firm no one has ever heard of before" rule applies in this case.
Oh I've heard of them before and while they're not junk, I find these results highly improbable.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: evergreenarbor on July 30, 2016, 11:52:26 am
I doubt that Clinton is actually up by this much, but if she is...wow.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on July 30, 2016, 12:03:25 pm
I doubt that Clinton is actually up by this much, but if she is...wow.
Trump is dooooomed!


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Xing on July 30, 2016, 12:17:37 pm
Hasn't RABA found pretty Democratic friendly results? Either way, obviously Clinton isn't up by this much, but it looks like she's gaining in the polls.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Boston Bread on July 30, 2016, 12:26:02 pm
Holy moly +15. She's also ahead with Women+22.
That's actually a tiny gap for this election.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Mehmentum on July 30, 2016, 12:27:15 pm
I'm just hoping that her convention bump is 10 points, tbh.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Gass3268 on July 30, 2016, 12:28:48 pm
Holy moly +15. She's also ahead with Women+22.
That's actually a tiny gap for this election.

They have Clinton up +7 with men and winning every age group.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Storebought on July 30, 2016, 12:36:23 pm
We've been cursed with ridiculous polls ever since the RNC ended.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Gustaf on July 30, 2016, 12:37:01 pm
Do we know when any legit polls are coming out?


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Ebsy on July 30, 2016, 12:40:01 pm
Do we know when any legit polls are coming out?
A bunch of post convention polls dropped on Sunday and Monday of last week. I suspect we will get new ones then.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: JerryArkansas on July 30, 2016, 12:42:58 pm
Do we know when any legit polls are coming out?
Most of the credible pollsters are probably going into the field this weekend to early next week.  Lots should drop Next friday/saturday.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: HillOfANight on July 30, 2016, 12:58:02 pm
https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/759440336972230656

RABA releasing Virginia poll soon.

https://twitter.com/RABAresearch/status/759440336972230656

Sean Trende of RealClearPolitics says we'll get stuff Sunday.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Ebsy on July 30, 2016, 12:59:25 pm
For those interested, the partisan composition is 38% Dem 34% GOP, which is pretty even for a national poll.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: pbrower2a on July 30, 2016, 02:07:56 pm
For me to believe this I need corroboration.  That means more polls.

I can see how it happened: the Republicans doubled down on the Trump agenda while the Democrats broadened their support. Democrats may have grabbed two usually-conservative ideas (family values and national security) that conservatives have usually owned.

John Podhoretz, former Ronald Reagan speech writer and Commentary editor:

Take about five paragraphs out of that Obama speech and it could have been a Reagan speech. Trust me. I know.

— John Podhoretz (@jpodhoretz) July 28, 2016

National Review editor Jonah Goldberg:

    Why this convention is better: It's about loving America. GOP convention was about loving Trump. If you didn't love Trump, it offered nada.

    — Jonah Goldberg (@JonahNRO) July 29, 2016

Conservative Iowa radio host Steve Deace:

    So most of conservative media and the GOP spent the week rooting for Russia, and now the Democrats get to rally around the flag.

    Dreadful.

    — Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) July 29, 2016

Conservative ops veteran Matt Mackowiak

    This Democratic convention has been an unmitigated disaster for the GOP. Very well produced. Unifying. Patriotic. Bravo.#DNCinPHL

    — Matt Mackowiak (@MattMackowiak) July 29, 2016

Conservative blogger AGConservative:

    Still stunned. Feel like I'm in the twilight zone. Obama just defended America & conservative values from attacks by the Republican nominee.

    — (((AG))) (@AG_Conservative) July 28, 2016

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/conservatives-agree-dnc-was-disaster-for-gop

....The worst electoral blowouts happen when either

(1) the incumbent unusually successful in the previous election faces either an unusually-weak nominee as an opponent who runs a muddled campaign (Landon 1936, Willkie 1940, Stevenson 1956, Mondale 1984), is cast successfully as an extremist (Goldwater 1964, McGovern 1972), or emerges from a divisive struggle in which the sleazy side wins the nomination (the 1924 Democratic convention showed the sordid influence of the fascistic KKK).

(2) the incumbent has endured an unmitigated disaster (Hoover, 1932; Carter 1980) or something so perceived at the time (Truman, 1952)

We may be seeing a third category this year. May -- notice the necessary weasel word! It is simply too early to predict that. Wait till you see the results of the 2016 election.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Seriously? on July 30, 2016, 02:37:31 pm
Holy moly +15. She's also ahead with Women+22.
That's actually a tiny gap for this election.

They have Clinton up +7 with men and winning every age group.
Clinton will win men by seven points when pigs fly out of my you-know-what.

Men hate Hillary! RABA is, was and remains junk not supported by the state poll record.


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: 136or142 on July 30, 2016, 02:39:28 pm
I've never heard of RABA research.

Raba Laba ding dong.  :D


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: psychprofessor on July 30, 2016, 02:47:59 pm
freedom poll


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Jacob Wohl on July 30, 2016, 02:59:43 pm
WOW! What a Fantastic poll!! A great classy poll by an even classier pollster! Trump is DOWN 10 points, at  this rate he will struggle to break 20% and be tied with Gary Johnson. SAD!


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: The Vorlon on July 30, 2016, 06:24:55 pm
Do we know when any legit polls are coming out?

Generally speaking, usually about the first week of Septenber 😇


Title: Re: RABA Research (national): Clinton +15 (10pt bounce)
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on July 30, 2016, 06:55:29 pm
     Their past numbers seem bizarrely pro-Clinton. D+5 after the RNC?