Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: amdcpus on August 03, 2016, 04:50:31 PM



Title: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: amdcpus on August 03, 2016, 04:50:31 PM
Fox National (RV 7/31 - 8/2)

2-way
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

3-way
Clinton - 44%
Trump - 35%
Johnson - 12%

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/08/03/fox-news-poll-clinton-leads-trump-by-10-points-both-seen-as-flawed.html


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Wells on August 03, 2016, 04:53:32 PM
That's a high Johnson number. I think it's too high.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: dspNY on August 03, 2016, 04:54:41 PM
Hillary leads 49-39 in the head to head. Title should be:

Fox: Clinton +10, Clinton +9 (3-way)


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: heatcharger on August 03, 2016, 04:55:31 PM
Interesting they are still using RV instead of LV. Margin seems right though.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: The Other Castro on August 03, 2016, 04:58:41 PM
Full info:

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 35%
Johnson - 12%

Clinton is favored among women by 23 points (57-34 percent), blacks by 83 (87-4 percent), Hispanics by 48 (68-20 percent), and voters under 30 by 18 (49-31 percent).

Trump is the choice among whites by 10 points (49-39 percent), men by 5 (45-40 percent), white evangelical Christians by 50 (69-19 percent), and whites without a college degree by 16 (52-36 percent).


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Xing on August 03, 2016, 04:59:07 PM
The bounce is real!


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 03, 2016, 04:59:39 PM
GOP headquarters today:

()


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Seriously? on August 03, 2016, 05:02:25 PM
Interesting they are still using RV instead of LV. Margin seems right though.
I don't think anyone other than Reuters switched to LV during the convention. (And we know what a mess that was.)

My guess is that we'll see the LV switch between mid-August and Labor Day.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 03, 2016, 05:05:19 PM


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: psychprofessor on August 03, 2016, 05:06:35 PM
Devastating cross tabs for Trump:

50. As you may know, the parents of a Muslim-American soldier who died while serving in the U.S. Army in Iraq appeared at the Democratic Convention and the father spoke out against Donald Trump.  How familiar are you with Trump’s response to comments by the
parents?

51. How do you feel about Trump’s response -- would you say it was in bounds or out of
bounds?


In bounds / Out of bounds (Don’t know)
1-2 Aug 16 19% /  69%

[ROTATE NEXT TWO QUESTIONS]
42. Do you think Hillary Clinton has the temperament to serve effectively as president?

Yes No (Don’t know)
 31 Jul-2 Aug 16 64% 34%

43. Do you think Donald Trump has the temperament to serve effectively as president?

Yes No (Don’t know)
31 Jul-2 Aug 16 37% 61%

[ROTATE NEXT TWO QUESTIONS]
44. Do you think Hillary Clinton has the knowledge to serve effectively as president?

Yes No (Don’t know)
31 Jul-2 Aug 16 72% 26%

45. Do you think Donald Trump has the knowledge to serve effectively as president?

Yes No (Don’t know)
31 Jul-2 Aug 16 40% 59%


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Dr. Arch on August 03, 2016, 05:07:36 PM

L O L


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: DrScholl on August 03, 2016, 05:07:45 PM
The demographics square with him still only breaking about 43% of the popular vote if the demographics actually vote the way that polling suggests. Only being up 10% with whites is a fairly bad sign for him.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: dspNY on August 03, 2016, 05:07:53 PM
Other info from this poll:

President Obama's approval is 52/45, for a +7

44% of the respondents think the country is on the right track. If this number gets to 50% we have a landslide coming against the GOP

Candidates are both terrible on trustworthiness, but Trump is actually one point worse (-26) than Clinton (-25). Clinton's trustworthy number improved from -36 (30/66) to (36/61).

Only 37% believe Trump has the temperament to serve as President, so if you want to know where his floor is, that's the floor

Only 44% of voters think Trump's praise of Putin bothers them (that's a bit surprising, thought it would be higher)

Only 19% of voters think Trump's conduct towards the Khans was appropriate compared to 69% who did not think it was appropriate

Party ID is D+6 (42D/36R/18I), similar to 2012 in Dem plurality but a lower # of indies, so Dems and GOP are oversampled

Indies favor Trump by 8 (41-33) but Clinton is taking 12% of Repubs and only losing 5% of Dems


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Ronnie on August 03, 2016, 05:08:15 PM

At this point, I think the GOP would take a 10 point loss.  I'm sure that there are some operatives who are concerned that, if Trump keeps up his nonsense, it might turn into a 15-20 point loss.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Fargobison on August 03, 2016, 05:12:17 PM
()

Donald right now...
()


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: KingSweden on August 03, 2016, 05:13:43 PM
For all the flack Fox News gets, they've always struck me as having a pretty solid polling operation


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: The Other Castro on August 03, 2016, 05:16:37 PM
Among Blacks in the 3-Way:
Clinton - 85%
Johnson - 7%
Trump - 1%


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: / on August 03, 2016, 05:25:57 PM
;D


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Absolution9 on August 03, 2016, 05:40:46 PM
The Khan debacle has hurt Trump in August just like the Curiel debacle hurt him in June.  Luckily for Trump this happened in early August and he has time to recover if he actually has the capability to do so. 

He needs to stop attacking sympathetic peripheral figures in the race and focus exclusively on Hillary Clinton, the economy/jobs, national security, sane non-interventionism, trade, and immigration.  His best bet would be to try to tie restrictive trade and immigration policy to jobs and wages as much as possible (whether empirically accurate or not).

If he can't stop with the stupid attacks he is either trying to lose or has a serious personality disorder.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Maxwell on August 03, 2016, 05:44:19 PM
For all the flack Fox News gets, they've always struck me as having a pretty solid polling operation

Agreed.

Wow, total annihilation. I wonder how long it takes for Republican Clear Politics to enter this into their system.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: heatcharger on August 03, 2016, 05:51:14 PM
Comment section on the article is hilarious:

Quote
Another rigged liberal poll

Quote
Fox has its head up hillary's bum and this poll smells like it.

Quote
President   Thomas Jefferson   refused  to   pay   tribute   to    Islamic   Terrorists.....    President    OBAMA,   pays   $400   Million    Dollars   to   Islamic   Terrorists.....

The best one:

Quote
it amazes really , just read an article when anti-hillary movies, books and apparel are sky high,  most comments I have read on all sites thrash her YET she is winning in the polls.  HOW can that be??


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: EliteLX on August 03, 2016, 05:54:23 PM
This is as huge of a disaster as I've always said.

Well, here you go GOP base. This is what you voted in and kept insisting he would "storm" the general". The 60 year old white trash can move over, it's time for the next generation of the GOP to take back the party in 2020. If John Kasich doesn't run again in 2020, I will be very upset.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: ElectionsGuy on August 03, 2016, 05:56:45 PM
This is as huge of a disaster as I've always said.

Well, here you go GOP base. This is what you voted in and kept insisting he would "storm" the general". The 60 year old white trash can move over, it's time for the next generation of the GOP to take back the party in 2020.

There is no next generation, the GOP base keeps getting older and older because young voters as a whole are disgusted with everything Trump and the GOP stands for.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on August 03, 2016, 05:57:37 PM
Among Blacks in the 3-Way:
Clinton - 85%
Johnson - 7%
Trump - 1%

     Wow, that is brutal.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Wells on August 03, 2016, 06:03:04 PM
Comment section on the article is hilarious:

Quote
Another rigged liberal poll

Quote
Fox has its head up hillary's bum and this poll smells like it.

Quote
President   Thomas Jefferson   refused  to   pay   tribute   to    Islamic   Terrorists.....    President    OBAMA,   pays   $400   Million    Dollars   to   Islamic   Terrorists.....

The best one:

Quote
it amazes really , just read an article when anti-hillary movies, books and apparel are sky high,  most comments I have read on all sites thrash her YET she is winning in the polls.  HOW can that be??

lol that's hilarious


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Virginiá on August 03, 2016, 06:05:06 PM
Comment section on the article is hilarious:

Quote
Another rigged liberal poll

Quote
Fox has its head up hillary's bum and this poll smells like it.

Quote
President   Thomas Jefferson   refused  to   pay   tribute   to    Islamic   Terrorists.....    President    OBAMA,   pays   $400   Million    Dollars   to   Islamic   Terrorists.....

The best one:

Quote
it amazes really , just read an article when anti-hillary movies, books and apparel are sky high,  most comments I have read on all sites thrash her YET she is winning in the polls.  HOW can that be??

Fox Poll is liberal? Fox in the tank for Clinton? Are you joking me?

Most comments on all sites Breitbart, right-wing blogs and fringe conservative news sites I read all thrash her. How is this possible?! Really? REALLY?

Sometimes it is hard to accept how utterly stupid large swathes of America is in regards to politics. I mean for gods sakes, that last comment is probably the best example of how some people have lived in a political bubble for so long that they are not even aware that there is another side of America (which is larger) that really dislikes their side.


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on August 03, 2016, 06:06:49 PM
This is why social media is so terrible, it just allows people to create and perpetuate their bubbles. The number of people who seemed so shocked that people had different views to themselves and their friends...


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: heatcharger on August 03, 2016, 06:08:00 PM
This is why social media is so terrible, it just allows people to create and perpetuate their bubbles. The number of people who seemed so shocked that people had different views to themselves and their friends...

Definitely agree. The internet isn't helping political polarization, it's actually making it worse in a lot of ways.


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: NOVA Green on August 03, 2016, 06:14:07 PM
So if I read it correctly Fox has a "B" grade for polling from Nate Silver/538?

What are the trends from the last Fox national poll?


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on August 03, 2016, 06:19:31 PM
So if I read it correctly Fox has a "B" grade for polling from Nate Silver/538?

What are the trends from the last Fox national poll?

The last national Fox poll was from late June (as far as I can see) and had Clinton +6 in the two-way and +5 in the four-way. Basically in line with the trends at the time.


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: Wells on August 03, 2016, 06:22:05 PM
So if I read it correctly Fox has a "B" grade for polling from Nate Silver/538?

What are the trends from the last Fox national poll?

They also have an R bias, so this poll is making me really happy.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 03, 2016, 06:49:47 PM


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: ProudModerate2 on August 03, 2016, 07:08:31 PM
If he can't stop with the stupid attacks he is either trying to lose or has a serious personality disorder.

Of course we ALL know that the correct answer is that he has "a serious personality disorder."


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on August 03, 2016, 07:16:53 PM
So if I read it correctly Fox has a "B" grade for polling from Nate Silver/538?

What are the trends from the last Fox national poll?

They also have an R bias, so this poll is making me really happy.

No, you're probably thinking of Fox / Opinion Research, which is R+0.5 and a B grade at 538.  This poll is from Fox / Anderson Robbins Research / Shaw & Company Research, which is D+0.4 with an A grade.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: ProudModerate2 on August 03, 2016, 07:17:20 PM
Comment section on the article is hilarious:

Quote
Another rigged liberal poll

Quote
Fox has its head up hillary's bum and this poll smells like it.

Quote
President   Thomas Jefferson   refused  to   pay   tribute   to    Islamic   Terrorists.....    President    OBAMA,   pays   $400   Million    Dollars   to   Islamic   Terrorists.....

The best one:

Quote
it amazes really , just read an article when anti-hillary movies, books and apparel are sky high,  most comments I have read on all sites thrash her YET she is winning in the polls.  HOW can that be??

Fox Poll is liberal? Fox in the tank for Clinton? Are you joking me?
Most comments on all sites Breitbart, right-wing blogs and fringe conservative news sites I read all thrash her. How is this possible?! Really? REALLY?
Sometimes it is hard to accept how utterly stupid large swathes of America is in regards to politics. I mean for gods sakes, that last comment is probably the best example of how some people have lived in a political bubble for so long that they are not even aware that there is another side of America (which is larger) that really dislikes their side.

I'm certain that "the last comment" (which you are pointing to) was from someone in the "poorly educated" category.


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: OwlRhetoric on August 03, 2016, 07:26:13 PM
Why does Fox do three way when the standard elsewhere is 2 way/4 way? The weird third party polling is really annoying this cycle and I wish a clearer picture would emerge about what's going on there. I would not be surprised if Johnson is inflated by a couple extra percent if the Stein supporters picked him as an "other."


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: Devout Centrist on August 03, 2016, 07:45:32 PM
Why does Fox do three way when the standard elsewhere is 2 way/4 way? The weird third party polling is really annoying this cycle and I wish a clearer picture would emerge about what's going on there. I would not be surprised if Johnson is inflated by a couple extra percent if the Stein supporters picked him as an "other."
And I wouldn't be surprised if Johnsin is inflated by shy Clinton/Trump supporters.


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: Maxwell on August 03, 2016, 07:59:01 PM
Obama led the RCP average by about 4 points after the conventions in 2012, some of his highest leads in an election that never got beyond a tiny range.

Hillary is now at 5.1 points and climbing.

BEAUTIFUL POLLING LEADS


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: ProudModerate2 on August 03, 2016, 08:22:12 PM
I wonder how long it takes for Republican Clear Politics to enter this into their system.

Obama led the RCP average by about 4 points after the conventions in 2012, some of his highest leads in an election that never got beyond a tiny range.
Hillary is now at 5.1 points and climbing.
BEAUTIFUL POLLING LEADS

Very nice indeed !
I believe that new polls released within the next 1 or 2 weeks, will drive that number a little bit higher
Maxwell, curious ..... Why do you refer to RCP as "Republican Clear Politics" ?


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: Likely Voter on August 03, 2016, 08:43:22 PM
The RCP average currently has nine polls, but four of them include data from during the DNC. If you look at just the five purely post DNC polls you get a 2-way average of Clinton 48.8 and Trump 42.2, or a 6.6 point lead. So she may have a bit more room to grow.

Right now it isn't clear if Clinton DNC bump will fade a bit as bumps usually do or if it will be sustained due to the Khan and other stories hurting Trump. But right now it is hard to imagine Clinton losing at least a small lead any time before the first debate, unless there is some big event that hurts Clinton or helps Trump.


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on August 03, 2016, 09:27:55 PM
Ayyyyy lmao


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: IceSpear on August 04, 2016, 11:49:27 PM
Beautiful poll!


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Badger on August 07, 2016, 04:13:19 AM
For all the flack Fox News gets, they've always struck me as having a pretty solid polling operation


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: President Johnson on August 07, 2016, 04:15:18 AM

Her lead yes, butI'd like to see her around or above 50%.


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: Likely Voter on August 07, 2016, 02:54:30 PM
There was an interesting moment on Thursday on The Greta show on Fox where she had Karl Rove on and she started to unskew the Fox poll claiming that it can't be right due to crowd sizes for Trump. And amazingly, Karl was having none of it...
Quote
Walter Mondale, Bob Dole, George McGovern, and William Jennings Bryan all drew large enthusiastic crowds in the final stages of their presidential bids, Rove said, and they all lost.

"There's a difference between who shows up at a rally and who turns out to vote," Rove said, "and right today, I wouldn't be betting that all of those polls showing — I wouldn't bet the Fox News poll is wrong that says he's 10 points down. I wouldn't bet that the NBC poll that has him 9 down is wrong."
http://theweek.com/speedreads/641174/karl-rove-swats-down-idea-that-donald-trumps-terrible-poll-numbers-are-skewed


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: Mehmentum on August 07, 2016, 03:12:58 PM
There was an interesting moment on Thursday on The Greta show on Fox where she had Karl Rove on and she started to unskew the Fox poll claiming that it can't be right due to crowd sizes for Trump. And amazingly, Karl was having none of it...
Quote
Walter Mondale, Bob Dole, George McGovern, and William Jennings Bryan all drew large enthusiastic crowds in the final stages of their presidential bids, Rove said, and they all lost.

"There's a difference between who shows up at a rally and who turns out to vote," Rove said, "and right today, I wouldn't be betting that all of those polls showing — I wouldn't bet the Fox News poll is wrong that says he's 10 points down. I wouldn't bet that the NBC poll that has him 9 down is wrong."
http://theweek.com/speedreads/641174/karl-rove-swats-down-idea-that-donald-trumps-terrible-poll-numbers-are-skewed
Unlike many Republicans, it seems that Karl Rove has learned the lessons of 2012.


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: The Other Castro on August 07, 2016, 04:09:44 PM
There was an interesting moment on Thursday on The Greta show on Fox where she had Karl Rove on and she started to unskew the Fox poll claiming that it can't be right due to crowd sizes for Trump. And amazingly, Karl was having none of it...
Quote
Walter Mondale, Bob Dole, George McGovern, and William Jennings Bryan all drew large enthusiastic crowds in the final stages of their presidential bids, Rove said, and they all lost.

"There's a difference between who shows up at a rally and who turns out to vote," Rove said, "and right today, I wouldn't be betting that all of those polls showing — I wouldn't bet the Fox News poll is wrong that says he's 10 points down. I wouldn't bet that the NBC poll that has him 9 down is wrong."
http://theweek.com/speedreads/641174/karl-rove-swats-down-idea-that-donald-trumps-terrible-poll-numbers-are-skewed

Well damn, I truly have seen it all.


Title: Re: Fox National: Clinton +10 (+9 3-way)
Post by: PeteB on August 07, 2016, 10:11:30 PM
The way things are going, unless RNC dumps Trump soon, in a month or so we will be having serious discussions if Trump can win ANY states.


Title: Re: Clinton 44% Trump 35% Johnson 12% in Fox News National Poll
Post by: Sir Mohamed on August 08, 2016, 09:47:43 AM
Among Blacks in the 3-Way:
Clinton - 85%
Johnson - 7%
Trump - 1%

     Wow, that is brutal.

A very special relationship!