Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Ebsy on August 04, 2016, 05:26:40 AM


Title: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Ebsy on August 04, 2016, 05:26:40 AM
http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/08/Topline-2016-08-WBUR-NH-General-2.pdf

Hassan: 48
Ayotte: 37

w/ Leaners:
Hassan: 50
Ayotte: 40

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: The world will shine with light in our nightmare on August 04, 2016, 05:30:18 AM
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Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: morgieb on August 04, 2016, 05:51:00 AM
Congrats, TNVol.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: windjammer on August 04, 2016, 06:01:15 AM
Not believable

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Gass3268 on August 04, 2016, 06:04:22 AM
Lean D

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: LLR on August 04, 2016, 06:49:57 AM
This is probably why TNVol disappeared.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: emcee0 on August 04, 2016, 08:13:27 AM
Jumping Maggie!

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Brittain33 on August 04, 2016, 08:21:17 AM
If this lead holds up—and NH tends to swing very dramatically with partisan waves—that makes three Republican senators who are going to get Blanched this November.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Holmes on August 04, 2016, 09:10:15 AM
Will her climbing ever cease?

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Brittain33 on August 04, 2016, 09:21:58 AM

Can I ask what this "Climbing Maggie" meme is about?

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: RINO Tom on August 04, 2016, 10:11:13 AM

I just realized I've never gotten an actual explanation on this: Why does the fact that liberal women are voting for a Democrat make them "angry" in his eyes?  LOL

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Xing on August 04, 2016, 10:14:40 AM
Climbing Maggie is in the mesosphere now.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Gass3268 on August 04, 2016, 10:34:30 AM
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Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on August 04, 2016, 10:39:02 AM

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Heisenberg on August 04, 2016, 11:28:32 AM
Likely D. Republicans need to get out of here and Wisconsin, and focus on winnable races.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Skye on August 04, 2016, 12:34:30 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 04, 2016, 09:21:58 AM

Can I ask what this "Climbing Maggie" meme is about?
Ask TNVolunteer.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: IceSpear on August 04, 2016, 11:05:53 PM
Where's TNVolunteer?

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Maxwell on August 04, 2016, 11:07:54 PM
Time to move this to Lean D.

That's three seats Lean D or better... four if we include Indiana, which I am not ready yet to do.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Heisenberg on August 05, 2016, 01:53:22 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 05, 2016, 09:33:33 AM
Kirk and Johnson combined have a better chance of winning than Ayotte. Safe D.

Quote from: Heisenberg on August 04, 2016, 11:28:32 AM
Likely D. Republicans need to get out of here and Wisconsin, and focus on winnable races.

Usually we agree 100%, but why Likely D? Rating it "Likely" D implies that there is a chance, however small it may be, that Ayotte can win this race. Not going to happen, even if Trump wins the presidency in a landslide.
While Ayotte is toast, I think that the loss will be within 5-6 points. Ayotte is losing, but since Scott Brown was still within 2-3 points, Ayotte will underperform only slightly (taking the Presidential Election and Hillary on top of the ticket into account). In about 15 years, though, New Hampshire margins will be Vermont margins, more or less. Many people here somehow think rating = margin. I said "likely" instead of safe to avoid pissing off those who somehow think New Hampshire is still a swing state, and I guess I fear the small off chance that we're wrong.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Xing on August 05, 2016, 05:48:43 PM
Quote from: Heisenberg on August 05, 2016, 01:53:22 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 05, 2016, 09:33:33 AM
Kirk and Johnson combined have a better chance of winning than Ayotte. Safe D.

Quote from: Heisenberg on August 04, 2016, 11:28:32 AM
Likely D. Republicans need to get out of here and Wisconsin, and focus on winnable races.

Usually we agree 100%, but why Likely D? Rating it "Likely" D implies that there is a chance, however small it may be, that Ayotte can win this race. Not going to happen, even if Trump wins the presidency in a landslide.
While Ayotte is toast, I think that the loss will be within 5-6 points. Ayotte is losing, but since Scott Brown was still within 2-3 points, Ayotte will underperform only slightly (taking the Presidential Election and Hillary on top of the ticket into account). In about 15 years, though, New Hampshire margins will be Vermont margins, more or less. Many people here somehow think rating = margin. I said "likely" instead of safe to avoid pissing off those who somehow think New Hampshire is still a swing state, and I guess I fear the small off chance that we're wrong.

I almost want Ayotte to win (in a competitive environment,) just to see how you guys will react. :P I'm not guessing that it will happen, but I imagine it'd be funny.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Free Bird on August 06, 2016, 03:13:27 PM
The angry women make up 52% of this poll. They must be very fired up.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Heisenberg on August 06, 2016, 04:15:26 PM
Quote from: TN volunteer on August 06, 2016, 03:54:26 PM
Quote from: FreePhoenix on August 06, 2016, 03:13:27 PM
The angry women make up 52% of this poll. They must be very fired up.

Climbing Maggie leads Ayotte 57-33 among NH females, but loses the male vote by 4 (44-48). A gender gap of 28 points. Safe D.
In spite of the fact that both candidates are female. Just shows how Democratic Angry NH women are.

Title: Re: NH-WBUR: Hassan +10
Post by: Dr. Arch on August 06, 2016, 04:24:55 PM
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