Talk Elections

Clinton 44%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%
Stein 1%

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Poll Results (http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Georgia-Executive-Summary.pdf)

And the Senate numbers look legit. Interesting.

Hopefully this poll is accurate, unlike zubat Zogby.

I am not shocked at all.

Clinton will win Georgia this November. The demographics and national margin are just right for her in the state. Hopefully in latter elections the GOP hold on state government will crack.

Clinton getting 12% in North Georgia with 28% undecided. LOL.

haha Johnson is splitting the white vote. So ling as Johnson keeps polling well, I see no reason why Clinton can not win Georgia.

Just added some of the crosstabs to OP:

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To be fair...that has to be way off compared to their other regions; the undecideds are way too high. Not to mention that there's almost no way Trump cracks 80% in any single county (other than maybe Gilmer/Franklin) in their "North Georgia" region, which is shown on the final page of the poll (the two green slivers bordering TN/AL & SC). It's not even 5% of the state's electorate; I guess they defined it this way because they used media markets as a way to break down the state. With such a small sample size, the undecideds being so large isn't surprising.

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What's even more incredible is the huge area defined as "Atlanta" (all of the pink)...and the fact that Clinton is leading there by 10. That area includes most of what would be considered "North Georgia", including the vast majority of the heavily-GOP areas of the state by population and all of the northern counties where Trump could possibly hit 80%.

WOW!! Inspiring!

RIP Seriously

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Interesting...this doesn't seem to be a Dem hack firm. They had Trump +16 in Louisiana back in May and Trump +5 in Florida in early July.

They're actually a lean-GOP firm. They had Vitter down 4 in their last LA-Gov poll before he lost by 12

Future Georgia polls really should do white men/white women splits and white no-college men/white no-college women/white college men/white college women splits.

Their LA polling toward the end was weird. That last one where JBE was up 4 was released three days after they released one showing JBE up by 15...and one a couple of weeks before that with him up by 20. =/

By his standards those aren't bad numbers for Trump with blacks.

LOL!!! The Trumpster loses bigly (or big league?). Truly amazing. The second poll where the fake billionaire is way down in GA.

Seriously? won't be happy...

Nah, according to Seriously this is standard for the Democrats. Nothing to see here, typical polling fluctuation in Georgia.

You know GA better than I do obviously. Does that big region they define as Metro Atlanta contain 2/3 of the state's population? That seems to be a lot bigger than other definitions of Metro Atlanta I've seen (Fulton and DeKalb as core Atlanta and the suburbs like Gwinnett and Cobb as the rest of the ATL metro)

That map is showing the Atlanta media market, which is much larger than any definition of metro Atlanta that I've ever seen.  The metro definition varies, but the most common one is the Census Bureau's Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell MSA , which includes 29 counties: see http://www.metroatlantachamber.com/docs/default-document-library/29-county-msa-map-and-text42913.pdf for a map and list.

The MSA has about 5.7 million people, which is a little over half of the state population.  I'd guess the larger area shown by the media market probably does approach 2/3.

Holy sh**t

Can someone please poll North Carolina? If GA is slight lean Dem, then NC has to be leaning Dem as well, right?

GA is the new NC
NC is the new VA
VA is the new MI.

With this poll, GA just swung to Clinton on the 538 polls-only forecast.

Consider the vote share of the two main nominees:

Take out the votes for Stein and Johnson, and one gets

Clinton 44/92 = 47.83%
Trump 37/92 =  40.22%

It's hard to see how Hillary Clinton is a particularly good cultural match for Georgia, but it is easy to see how Donald Trump, arguably the worst sort of city slicker possible, is a horrible fit.

Man, Trump is doing terribly in the coastal South. I'm really curious to see PPP's NC poll.

Well, in the primaries, Clinton did very well with Southerners (both blacks and whites).  Its not that unlikely that she does have some appeal in the region.

If GA is leaning D, NC has to be likely at the least.

Nobody is better at losing than Donald Trump.

I don't believe it

^^^ 64.7% of the state's 2010 population; 66.7% of 2008 vote.

https://twitter.com/jbarro/status/761532763526860800?lang=en

Republicans have been doing very well in the South, so there's no room for Trump to improve...

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/762303397978525696

Also, metro ATL has a highly educated population. The Republicans inside Atlanta voted Rubio strongly.

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Well, time to end the American experiment I guess. We had a good run. Glad I got to be a part of it for 20 years (though not actually).

Would be interesting to see a South Carolina poll too at this point.

This map would probably explain Trump's support in Nevada as well, along with part of the Clinton trends in CO and VA.

To be fair, that map is as a share of Romney's white voters, but Nevada's college educated population is low compared to the national average. Clinton isn't really improving among whites there like in CO, VA, PA, etc. because of a lack of college educated whites, and Clinton's victory there will be mostly thanks to the African-American, Hispanic and Asian vote.

Love it.

Yeah ok. C-rated pollster in early August and I am supposed to be panicking. Gotcha.

Rasmussen didn't fail you back in 2012, right?

Gosh, I hope this she wins here.  If Trump takes Georgia, I'll scoop my eyeballs out with a spoon in shame.

Amazing!

Now I catch onto the narrowness of Clinton leads in Nevada. Badly as Donald Trump is doing with the college-educated white vote, i can see him faring incredibly badly in Colorado and Virginia, giving possible openings to Clinton in Georgia, Arizona, Utah, and Kansas. He could pick up Nevada and ME-02...But he could put Texas at risk.

Formal education makes one less sympathetic to demagogues. Clinton (neither, really) isn't one. Obama, Romney, McCain.... no! Dubya? For all his faults -- no. Not Kerry or Gore. Not Dole. Definitely not the elder Bush. Not really Perot. Reagan? No. Mondale? Certainly not.

Educated voters, whatever their ethnicity, are the dream voters if one can get them. They can vote across regional, religious, and ethnic lines. They vote if they can (that is, if they are citizens). Even if they lack the funds for making donations, they have the time for volunteering for their Parties. If they are stressed for time, then they have funds for making donations. They can hold their own in political conversations as badly-educated people can't.
 
A high level of formal education used to be a good proxy for Republican voting. In 2008 it became a good proxy for Democratic voting.

Interesting. I wonder when RCP is going to show the first Hillary Clinton true lead in their statewide charts.

Bolded relevant section....

Wasn't 2000 the first time in Modern American political history where the Democratic won "knowledge sector workers" that I believe was 10% of the electorate at that time?

Judging by their 5 most recent polls (which is their formula for measurement; they do not include this poll as of now...and it wouldn't surprise me if they didn't, as they seem to be a lot pickier with polls that show Democratic leads than Republican ones), the two oldest polls in that line-up (Fox5 & PPP) would have to fall off and be replaced by two new polls that combined show a Clinton advantage. The three most recent polls (WXIA, WSB & AJC) literally cancel each other out with their results of +4 Clinton, Tie & +4 Trump.

Considering they included the LA/FL polls from this same pollster, it would be logically inconsistent to not include this one as well. But it's (R)CP so who knows.

Also, as far as I can tell, there is no consistency to how many polls they include in their average. It's completely arbitrary. Considering the PPP poll is from May and the others are from July/August, it should have dropped off already, but again, (R)CP.

Strange how this hasn't been added to RCP yet. I think they are a garbage pollster, but RCP used them to hold Trump up in Florida so can't really ignore this result.

I've seen them cherry-pick from individual pollsters before, hence my comments. They may end up adding this one - it seems there is usually a delay or a day or two for some polls. What's weird is that in the past, I've noticed that GOP-friendly polls usually get added right away, while those that are not may be added to the database some days after the fact (presumably to give time for other, less favorable polls to release and minimize the period of time that a Dem-favorable poll might skew the result).

LMAO, TRUMP should really just give up.

PPP's twitter says that tomorrow's NC poll is a 6-7 on the Dem scale of happiness.  I wonder if that's taking heightened expectations into account. 

Several days ago, that would be something like a 2-3 point Clinton lead.  But given the recent Georgia polls and today's Monmouth national poll, I think an NC poll that would make Dems decently happy but not ecstatic would be more like Clinton +5.

Great news!

6-7 on Dem scale of happiness by PPP probably means Hillary +4

I'll take it...

Realistically GA is likely only +3-4 Clinton at this time and NC is 5-6% Clinton.

Better to under-perform and over-deliver but likely NC is +7-8 Clinton at this point.

I think GA is tied, maybe Clinton +1 or +2 and NC is Clinton +5