Title: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Tender Branson on August 09, 2016, 12:24:28 AM
7-day rolling average:
50.4% Clinton
43.1% Trump
In the latest sample, 1,475 adults nationwide were polled online, including 1,036 likely voters, from July 31 through Saturday.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/08/UPICVoter-daily-poll-Clinton-maintains-7-point-lead-over-Trump/1381470658124/
50.4% Clinton
43.1% Trump
In the latest sample, 1,475 adults nationwide were polled online, including 1,036 likely voters, from July 31 through Saturday.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/08/UPICVoter-daily-poll-Clinton-maintains-7-point-lead-over-Trump/1381470658124/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on August 09, 2016, 03:31:02 AM
seems like there's a lot of new daily trackers coming in post-gallup
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: pbrower2a on August 09, 2016, 08:07:43 AM
UPI became the Moonie news-wire. It used to be well respected, on par with the AP; hardly anyone now holds it in regard since Moon picked it up in a bankruptcy sale.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Tender Branson on August 11, 2016, 08:59:32 AM
FWIW, this tracker has gone from Clinton+7 to Clinton+2 as of yesterday ...
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Seriously? on August 11, 2016, 01:14:38 PM
FWIW, this tracker has gone from Clinton+7 to Clinton+2 as of yesterday ...
UPI/CVoter Through 8/9 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.2%
Clinton 48.1%
Trump 45.9%
Other 6.1%
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Ebsy on August 11, 2016, 01:33:38 PM
FWIW, this tracker has gone from Clinton+7 to Clinton+2 as of yesterday ...
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Seriously? on August 11, 2016, 08:35:10 PM
FWIW, this tracker has gone from Clinton+7 to Clinton+2 as of yesterday ...
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Seriously? on August 12, 2016, 09:26:54 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/10 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +4.3%
Clinton 49.5% (+1.4%)
Trump 45.2% (-.7%)
Other 5.4% (-.7%)
Clinton 49.5% (+1.4%)
Trump 45.2% (-.7%)
Other 5.4% (-.7%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: dspNY on August 12, 2016, 09:27:37 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/10 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +4.3%
Clinton 49.5% (+1.4%)
Trump 45.2% (-.7%)
Other 5.4% (-.7%)
Clinton 49.5% (+1.4%)
Trump 45.2% (-.7%)
Other 5.4% (-.7%)
I give you props for posting numbers even when they don't look good for your party
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Seriously? on August 12, 2016, 09:31:29 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/10 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +4.3%
Clinton 49.5% (+1.4%)
Trump 45.2% (-.7%)
Other 5.4% (-.7%)
Clinton 49.5% (+1.4%)
Trump 45.2% (-.7%)
Other 5.4% (-.7%)
I give you props for posting numbers even when they don't look good for your party
There's a big difference between a political debate and the numbers that drive polling.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Seriously? on August 15, 2016, 11:46:02 AM
They took off releasing results over the weekend, but here's the last three days catching up.
UPI/CVoter Through 8/13 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.5%
Clinton 49.0% (-0.5%)
Trump 45.5% (+0.4%)
Other 5.5% (+0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/12 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +4.4%
Clinton 49.5% (-0.3%)
Trump 45.1% (--)
Other 5.3% (+0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/11 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +4.7%
Clinton 49.8% (+0.3%)
Trump 45.1% (-0.1%)
Other 5.1% (-0.3%)
Note: Sum of numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
UPI/CVoter Through 8/13 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.5%
Clinton 49.0% (-0.5%)
Trump 45.5% (+0.4%)
Other 5.5% (+0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/12 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +4.4%
Clinton 49.5% (-0.3%)
Trump 45.1% (--)
Other 5.3% (+0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/11 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +4.7%
Clinton 49.8% (+0.3%)
Trump 45.1% (-0.1%)
Other 5.1% (-0.3%)
Note: Sum of numbers may not equal 100% due to rounding.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Seriously? on August 16, 2016, 11:33:19 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/14 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.8%
Clinton 50.5% (+1.5%)
Trump 44.7% (-0.8%)
Other 4.9% (-0.6%)
Note: This poll rounds to two digits, which makes the breakdown percentages not balance when rounding to first decimal.
Clinton 50.5% (+1.5%)
Trump 44.7% (-0.8%)
Other 4.9% (-0.6%)
Note: This poll rounds to two digits, which makes the breakdown percentages not balance when rounding to first decimal.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Lief 🗽 on August 16, 2016, 12:20:47 PM
WOW! Huge momentum. Looks like Trump's speech bombed BIG TIME. Sad!
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Seriously? on August 17, 2016, 08:26:31 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/15 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +6.5%
Clinton 50.7% (+0.2%)
Trump 44.2% (-0.5%)
Other 5.1% (+0.2%)
Clinton 50.7% (+0.2%)
Trump 44.2% (-0.5%)
Other 5.1% (+0.2%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll: Clinton+7
Post by: Seriously? on August 18, 2016, 01:49:53 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/16 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +6.5%
Clinton 50.8% (+0.1%)
Trump 44.3% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)
Clinton 50.8% (+0.1%)
Trump 44.3% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)
Title: UPI/CVoter Tracking Poll - National - 8/14-8/20: Clinton +1
Post by: Seriously? on August 19, 2016, 09:47:18 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/20 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.7%
Clinton 48.2% (-1.3%)
Trump 47.5% (+1.6%)
Other 4.3% (-0.4%)
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/22/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-sticks-to-script-comes-to-within-1-of-Hillary-Clintons-lead/3141471867581/
Original Track ending 8/9 per Tender Branson
50.4% Clinton
43.1% Trump
Original Post with numbers from 8/10-16: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242931.0
Moved so the subject line can change daily when I enter the results.
Clinton 48.2% (-1.3%)
Trump 47.5% (+1.6%)
Other 4.3% (-0.4%)
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/22/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-sticks-to-script-comes-to-within-1-of-Hillary-Clintons-lead/3141471867581/
Original Track ending 8/9 per Tender Branson
50.4% Clinton
43.1% Trump
Original Post with numbers from 8/10-16: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=242931.0
Moved so the subject line can change daily when I enter the results.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter Tracking Poll - National: Clinton - 8/11-8/17: Clinton +4
Post by: Fusionmunster on August 19, 2016, 09:51:52 AM
You know this is just gonna get combined with Tenders thread, right?
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter Tracking Poll - National: Clinton - 8/11-8/17: Clinton +4
Post by: Seriously? on August 19, 2016, 09:58:01 AM
You know this is just gonna get combined with Tenders thread, right?
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter Tracking Poll - National: Clinton - 8/11-8/17: Clinton +1
Post by: Seriously? on August 22, 2016, 12:42:07 PM
Catching up from the weekend results, not posted by UPI/CVoter.
UPI/CVoter Through 8/20 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.7%
Clinton 48.2% (-1.3%)
Trump 47.5% (+1.6%)
Other 4.3% (-0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/19 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.6%
Clinton 49.5% (+0.3%)
Trump 45.9% (--%)
Other 4.7% (-0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/18 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.3%
Clinton 49.2% (-0.5%)
Trump 45.9% (+0.4%)
Other 4.9% (--%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/17 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +4.2%
(original post of thread)
Clinton 49.7% (-1.1%)
Trump 45.5% (+1.2%)
Other 4.9% (--%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/20 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.7%
Clinton 48.2% (-1.3%)
Trump 47.5% (+1.6%)
Other 4.3% (-0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/19 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.6%
Clinton 49.5% (+0.3%)
Trump 45.9% (--%)
Other 4.7% (-0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/18 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.3%
Clinton 49.2% (-0.5%)
Trump 45.9% (+0.4%)
Other 4.9% (--%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/17 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +4.2%
(original post of thread)
Clinton 49.7% (-1.1%)
Trump 45.5% (+1.2%)
Other 4.9% (--%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on August 23, 2016, 10:41:19 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/21 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.8%
Clinton 48.0% (-0.2%)
Trump 47.2% (-0.3%)
Other 4.8% (+0.5%)
Clinton 48.0% (-0.2%)
Trump 47.2% (-0.3%)
Other 4.8% (+0.5%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on August 24, 2016, 11:39:41 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/22 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.9%
Clinton 48.4% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.5% (+0.3%)
Other 4.2% (-0.6%)
Clinton 48.4% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.5% (+0.3%)
Other 4.2% (-0.6%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on August 25, 2016, 10:28:47 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/23 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.7%
Trump 48.3% (+0.8%)
Clinton 47.6% (-0.8%)
Other 4.1% (-0.1%)
The Donald takes his first lead for the first time since we were tracking this poll. First lead since 7/30.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/25/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-leading-Hillary-Clinton-for-first-time-in-weeks/8291472137479/
Trump 48.3% (+0.8%)
Clinton 47.6% (-0.8%)
Other 4.1% (-0.1%)
The Donald takes his first lead for the first time since we were tracking this poll. First lead since 7/30.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/25/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-leading-Hillary-Clinton-for-first-time-in-weeks/8291472137479/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on August 26, 2016, 10:40:37 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/24 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.8%
Trump 48.5% (+0.2%)
Clinton 47.7% (+0.1%)
Other 3.7% (-0.4%)
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/26/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-maintains-slim-lead-over-Hillary-Clinton/4311472221679/
Trump 48.5% (+0.2%)
Clinton 47.7% (+0.1%)
Other 3.7% (-0.4%)
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/26/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-maintains-slim-lead-over-Hillary-Clinton/4311472221679/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: 100% pro-life no matter what on August 26, 2016, 11:37:28 PM
DJT has already made a Facebook post about being ahead. As a side note, I had a friend tell me that there is a 95%+ chance Trump will win today using the LA Times poll as proof.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 09:33:37 AM
Catching up from over the weekend. It's now Hillary +3, based entirely on Saturday's sample/the roll-off of 8/20.
UPI/CVoter Through 8/27 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.0%
Clinton 49.9% (+1.4%)
Trump 46.9% (-1.6%)
Other 3.2% (+0.3%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.1%
Trump 48.6% (+0.3%)
Clinton 48.5% (-0.5%)
Other 2.9% (+0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/25 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.7%
Clinton 49.0% (+1.3%)
Trump 48.3% (-0.2%)
Other 2.7% (-1.0%)
Note: UPI does not release their polling results on weekends.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/29/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-regains-lead-over-Donald-Trump/5511472472098/
UPI/CVoter Through 8/27 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.0%
Clinton 49.9% (+1.4%)
Trump 46.9% (-1.6%)
Other 3.2% (+0.3%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.1%
Trump 48.6% (+0.3%)
Clinton 48.5% (-0.5%)
Other 2.9% (+0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 8/25 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.7%
Clinton 49.0% (+1.3%)
Trump 48.3% (-0.2%)
Other 2.7% (-1.0%)
Note: UPI does not release their polling results on weekends.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/08/29/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-regains-lead-over-Donald-Trump/5511472472098/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: The Other Castro on August 29, 2016, 10:38:57 AM
CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 10:43:40 AM
CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: The Other Castro on August 29, 2016, 10:48:31 AM
CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
As in dumb for trying to discern trends since they seem to be all over the place. Yes they are expected to have swings, but it'd be a lot simpler if we just stuck with an average of normal national polls.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: dspNY on August 29, 2016, 10:53:18 AM
CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
As in dumb for trying to discern trends since they seem to be all over the place. Yes they are expected to have swings, but it'd be a lot simpler if we just stuck with an average of normal national polls.
Exactly. It's still junky even though my preferred candidate jumped 3 points in one day
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on August 29, 2016, 11:03:39 AM
CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
As in dumb for trying to discern trends since they seem to be all over the place. Yes they are expected to have swings, but it'd be a lot simpler if we just stuck with an average of normal national polls.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Wiz in Wis on August 29, 2016, 11:13:15 AM
It is cool to see how one day in the sample can really reset a trend.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 29, 2016, 11:25:18 AM
CLINTON SURGING!!11!!1!1
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
jk daily tracking polls continue to prove dumb
As in dumb for trying to discern trends since they seem to be all over the place. Yes they are expected to have swings, but it'd be a lot simpler if we just stuck with an average of normal national polls.
The same with Pew. It showed that Clinton lost 5 pps. Is it true? No way. Some of this can be explained by noise. But daily polls have smaller sample and get released every day, why the noise is much more obvious [and irritating for those who don't understand how it works].
But it is NORMAL to have noise.
Nate Silver:
()
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: windjammer on August 29, 2016, 11:31:03 AM
BAN THIS TRACKER
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on August 30, 2016, 08:41:29 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/28 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.1%
Clinton 49.9% (--%)
Trump 46.8% (-0.1%)
Other 3.4% (+0.2%)
Clinton 49.9% (--%)
Trump 46.8% (-0.1%)
Other 3.4% (+0.2%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on August 30, 2016, 08:53:28 AM
Junk!!!111 Monmouth and Pew shows 6% and 5% decrease of Clinton's lead, respectively.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on August 31, 2016, 09:28:23 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/29 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.7%
Clinton 49.7% (-0.2%)
Trump 47.0% (+0.2%)
Other 3.2% (-0.2%)
Clinton 49.7% (-0.2%)
Trump 47.0% (+0.2%)
Other 3.2% (-0.2%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 01, 2016, 10:15:05 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/30 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.8%
Clinton 48.9% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.1% (-0.9%)
Other 5.0% (+1.8%)
Other wins the day!
Clinton 48.9% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.1% (-0.9%)
Other 5.0% (+1.8%)
Other wins the day!
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 02, 2016, 08:25:10 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 8/31 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.2%
Clinton 48.3% (-0.6%)
Trump 46.1% (--%)
Other 5.6% (+0.6%)
Other keeps on growing,
Clinton 48.3% (-0.6%)
Trump 46.1% (--%)
Other 5.6% (+0.6%)
Other keeps on growing,
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 05, 2016, 12:50:36 PM
Catching up over the weekend.
UPI/CVoter Through 9/3 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.9%
Clinton 49.4% (+0.1%)
Trump 45.5% (+0.4%)
Other 5.1% (-0.5%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/2 (7-day rolling average) Clinton+4.2%
Clinton 49.3% (+0.3%)
Trump 45.1% (-0.4%)
Other 5.6% (--%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/1 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.5%
Clinton 49.0% (+0.7%)
Trump 45.5% (-0.6%)
Other 5.6% (--%)
Note: UPI does not release their polling results on weekends.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/05/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-edges-out-Donald-Trump-with-385-point-lead/2051473089153/
UPI/CVoter Through 9/3 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.9%
Clinton 49.4% (+0.1%)
Trump 45.5% (+0.4%)
Other 5.1% (-0.5%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/2 (7-day rolling average) Clinton+4.2%
Clinton 49.3% (+0.3%)
Trump 45.1% (-0.4%)
Other 5.6% (--%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/1 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.5%
Clinton 49.0% (+0.7%)
Trump 45.5% (-0.6%)
Other 5.6% (--%)
Note: UPI does not release their polling results on weekends.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/05/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-edges-out-Donald-Trump-with-385-point-lead/2051473089153/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Person Man on September 05, 2016, 03:27:46 PM
The race seems to be stabilizing, if you believe this poll. I'm skeptical, but Clinton head by 4 or 5 is a reasonable result of where things are.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 09:11:18 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/4 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton 48.6% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Other 5.0% (-0.1%)
Clinton 48.6% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Other 5.0% (-0.1%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: dspNY on September 06, 2016, 01:32:51 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/4 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton 48.6% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Other 5.0% (-0.1%)
Clinton 48.6% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Other 5.0% (-0.1%)
That one day where Clinton jumped 3 points in a day dropped off the survey so it is still good to see a Clinton lead here. Even though I think all the trackers are junk this is probably the least junky
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 06, 2016, 01:35:48 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/4 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.1%
Clinton 48.6% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Other 5.0% (-0.1%)
Clinton 48.6% (-0.8%)
Trump 46.5% (+1.0%)
Other 5.0% (-0.1%)
That one day where Clinton jumped 3 points in a day dropped off the survey so it is still good to see a Clinton lead here. Even though I think all the trackers are junk this is probably the least junky
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 07, 2016, 12:45:54 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/5 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.0%
Clinton 48.1% (-0.5%)
Trump 46.1% (-0.4%)
Other 5.8% (+0.8%)
Clinton 48.1% (-0.5%)
Trump 46.1% (-0.4%)
Other 5.8% (+0.8%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on September 07, 2016, 01:37:03 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/5 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.0%
Clinton 48.1% (-0.5%)
Trump 46.1% (-0.4%)
Other 5.8% (+0.8%)
Clinton 48.1% (-0.5%)
Trump 46.1% (-0.4%)
Other 5.8% (+0.8%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Person Man on September 07, 2016, 02:47:31 PM
At this point, millions of people will either decide they sre not going to vote or do a coin toss.
Actually- here's one mental exercise- who has the most downside risks? Would you want to be responsible for that?
Actually- here's one mental exercise- who has the most downside risks? Would you want to be responsible for that?
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 08, 2016, 10:37:49 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/6 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.4%
Trump 47.2% (+1.1%)
Clinton 46.8% (-1.3%)
Other 6.0% (+0.2%)
Trump takes the lead back.
Trump 47.2% (+1.1%)
Clinton 46.8% (-1.3%)
Other 6.0% (+0.2%)
Trump takes the lead back.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 10, 2016, 10:45:11 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/7 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.0%
Trump 47.7% (+0.5%)
Clinton 46.7% (-0.1%)
Other 5.6% (-0.4%)
Better late than never. UPI finally got around to this update today. Didn't include the 9/8 results, which will likely come on Monday.
Trump 47.7% (+0.5%)
Clinton 46.7% (-0.1%)
Other 5.6% (-0.4%)
Better late than never. UPI finally got around to this update today. Didn't include the 9/8 results, which will likely come on Monday.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 11, 2016, 12:11:22 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/8 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.1%
Trump 48.2% (+0.5%)
Clinton 46.1% (-0.6%)
Other 5.7% (+0.1%)
UPI added an extra day lag to their results. Odd. In any event, Trump gains and they're releasing on weekends now.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/11/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-widens-lead-over-Hillary-Clinton-to-2-points/4831473579817/
Trump 48.2% (+0.5%)
Clinton 46.1% (-0.6%)
Other 5.7% (+0.1%)
UPI added an extra day lag to their results. Odd. In any event, Trump gains and they're releasing on weekends now.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/11/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-widens-lead-over-Hillary-Clinton-to-2-points/4831473579817/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 12, 2016, 12:53:01 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/11 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.9%
Trump 48.7% (-0.4%)
Clinton 45.8% (+0.5%)
Other 5.5% (-0.1%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/10 (7-day rolling average) Trump +3.8%
Trump 49.1% (+0.9%)
Clinton 45.3% (-0.8%)
Other 5.6% (-0.1%)
*The change for 9/10 is based on 9/8.
UPI never released 9/9. It's somehow missing in their PDF except in graphical form. In any event, we'll get it eventually and they are now completely caught up with the other trackers with no lag.
Trump 48.7% (-0.4%)
Clinton 45.8% (+0.5%)
Other 5.5% (-0.1%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/10 (7-day rolling average) Trump +3.8%
Trump 49.1% (+0.9%)
Clinton 45.3% (-0.8%)
Other 5.6% (-0.1%)
*The change for 9/10 is based on 9/8.
UPI never released 9/9. It's somehow missing in their PDF except in graphical form. In any event, we'll get it eventually and they are now completely caught up with the other trackers with no lag.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 14, 2016, 12:02:58 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/12 (7-day rolling average) Trump +3.2%
Trump 48.9% (+0.2%)
Clinton 45.7% (-0.1%)
Other 5.4% (-0.1%)
Trump 48.9% (+0.2%)
Clinton 45.7% (-0.1%)
Other 5.4% (-0.1%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 15, 2016, 08:36:36 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/13 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.8%
Trump 47.9% (-1.0%)
Clinton 47.1% (+1.4%)
Other 5.0% (-0.4%)
Good news for Hillary!
Trump 47.9% (-1.0%)
Clinton 47.1% (+1.4%)
Other 5.0% (-0.4%)
Good news for Hillary!
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 16, 2016, 10:52:22 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/14 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.0%
Trump 47.8% (-0.1%)
Clinton 46.8% (-0.3%)
Other 5.4% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.8% (-0.1%)
Clinton 46.8% (-0.3%)
Other 5.4% (+0.4%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: KingSweden on September 16, 2016, 11:05:56 AM
Other surging! :P
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on September 17, 2016, 08:41:56 AM
UPI/CVoter poll: Donald Trump holds lead over Hillary Clinton for 11th day, Sept. 17, 2016 at 8:00 AM (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/17/UPICVoter-poll-Donald-Trump-holds-lead-over-Hillary-Clinton-for-11th-day/8501474056506/)
Quote
The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Saturday shows the race in a virtual tie, with Donald Trump holding onto a lead of less than 1 percentage point over Hillary Clinton.
The online poll shows Trump with 47.62 percent to Clinton's 47.01 percent.
Neither candidate moved significantly compared to data collected a day earlier. The data over the course of seven days, the poll's full sample size, shows Clinton gaining nearly 1 percentage point, while Trump's total has dropped six-tenths of a percent.
Though the lead is razor-thin, Trump has now posted his longest string of days leading the race since the UPI/CVoter poll started in July, before the party conventions. Trump held a sustained lead for 10 days over Clinton prior to the conventions. Through much of August, Clinton enjoyed a polling bump from the Democratic convention, while Trump struggled through several controversies and campaign staff shake-ups. Since then, Trump has remained largely on-message and has now led the UPI/CVoter poll for the last 11 days.
The online poll shows Trump with 47.62 percent to Clinton's 47.01 percent.
Neither candidate moved significantly compared to data collected a day earlier. The data over the course of seven days, the poll's full sample size, shows Clinton gaining nearly 1 percentage point, while Trump's total has dropped six-tenths of a percent.
Though the lead is razor-thin, Trump has now posted his longest string of days leading the race since the UPI/CVoter poll started in July, before the party conventions. Trump held a sustained lead for 10 days over Clinton prior to the conventions. Through much of August, Clinton enjoyed a polling bump from the Democratic convention, while Trump struggled through several controversies and campaign staff shake-ups. Since then, Trump has remained largely on-message and has now led the UPI/CVoter poll for the last 11 days.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 17, 2016, 09:20:32 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/15 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.6%
Trump 47.6% (-0.2%)
Clinton 47.0% (+0.2%)
Other 5.4% (--%)
Trump 47.6% (-0.2%)
Clinton 47.0% (+0.2%)
Other 5.4% (--%)
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 20, 2016, 10:02:40 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/16 (7-day rolling average) TIE
Trump 47.4% (-0.2%)
Clinton 47.4% (+0.4%)
Other 5.2% (-0.2%)
Someone needs to kick the UPI Bot for more information. The poll release today is now lagged by 2-3 days.
Hillary technically leads by .04%, but I am not going there. One decimal place is bad enough.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/20/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-reclaims-slight-lead-over-Donald-Trump/6381474380177/
Trump 47.4% (-0.2%)
Clinton 47.4% (+0.4%)
Other 5.2% (-0.2%)
Someone needs to kick the UPI Bot for more information. The poll release today is now lagged by 2-3 days.
Hillary technically leads by .04%, but I am not going there. One decimal place is bad enough.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/20/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-reclaims-slight-lead-over-Donald-Trump/6381474380177/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Ebsy on September 20, 2016, 11:13:35 AM
Trump falling like a rock in the UPI/Cvoter tracker. Not good!
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 21, 2016, 11:58:07 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/18 (7-day rolling average)Clinton + 1.2%
Clinton 48.0% (+0.6%)
Trump 46.8% (-0.6%)
Other 5.3% (+0.1%)
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/21/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-holds-118-lead-over-Donald-Trump/2301474469318/
Clinton 48.0% (+0.6%)
Trump 46.8% (-0.6%)
Other 5.3% (+0.1%)
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/21/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-holds-118-lead-over-Donald-Trump/2301474469318/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 21, 2016, 12:02:31 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/18 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.2
Clinton 48.0% (+0.6%)
Trump 46.8% (-0.8%)
Other 5.3% (+0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/17 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.6% (+0.2%)
Clinton 47.4% (--%)
Other 5.1% (-0.1%)
They caught up today with a 2-day release. Wiz got the second day. Adding 9/17 for documentation purposes.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/21/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-holds-118-lead-over-Donald-Trump/2301474469318/?spt=hts&or=1
Clinton 48.0% (+0.6%)
Trump 46.8% (-0.8%)
Other 5.3% (+0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/17 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.6% (+0.2%)
Clinton 47.4% (--%)
Other 5.1% (-0.1%)
They caught up today with a 2-day release. Wiz got the second day. Adding 9/17 for documentation purposes.
Source: http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/21/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-holds-118-lead-over-Donald-Trump/2301474469318/?spt=hts&or=1
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 26, 2016, 09:34:02 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/25 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.7%
Clinton 47.8% (-0.8%)
Trump 47.1% (+0.9%)
Other 5.1% (-0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/24 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 48.5% (+0.1%)
Trump 46.2% (-0.5%)
Other 5.3% (+0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/23 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.7%
Clinton 48.4% (-0.6%)
Trump 46.7% (+0.6%)
Other 4.9% (--)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/22 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.9%
Clinton 49.0% (-0.2%)
Trump 46.1% (+0.3%)
Other 4.9% (-0.1%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/21 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.4%
Clinton 49.2% (+1.1%)
Trump 45.8% (-1.4%)
Other 5.0% (+0.3%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/20 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.9%
Clinton 48.1% (-0.6%)
Trump 47.2% (+0.6%)
Other 4.7% (-0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/19 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.0%
Clinton 48.6% (+0.6%)
Trump 46.6% (-0.2%)
Other 4.9% (-0.4%)
First UPI release in nearly a week. Thanks to Wiz in Wisconsin for helping me clean this up.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-in-virtual-tie-heading-into-first-debate/8181474896561/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20160925_National_1.pdf
Clinton 47.8% (-0.8%)
Trump 47.1% (+0.9%)
Other 5.1% (-0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/24 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 48.5% (+0.1%)
Trump 46.2% (-0.5%)
Other 5.3% (+0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/23 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.7%
Clinton 48.4% (-0.6%)
Trump 46.7% (+0.6%)
Other 4.9% (--)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/22 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.9%
Clinton 49.0% (-0.2%)
Trump 46.1% (+0.3%)
Other 4.9% (-0.1%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/21 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +3.4%
Clinton 49.2% (+1.1%)
Trump 45.8% (-1.4%)
Other 5.0% (+0.3%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/20 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.9%
Clinton 48.1% (-0.6%)
Trump 47.2% (+0.6%)
Other 4.7% (-0.2%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/19 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.0%
Clinton 48.6% (+0.6%)
Trump 46.6% (-0.2%)
Other 4.9% (-0.4%)
First UPI release in nearly a week. Thanks to Wiz in Wisconsin for helping me clean this up.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-in-virtual-tie-heading-into-first-debate/8181474896561/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20160925_National_1.pdf
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 26, 2016, 11:18:57 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/25 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.2
Clinton 47.8% (-0.3%)
Trump 47.1% (+1.0%)
Other 5.3% (-1.0%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/24 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Clinton 47.5% (--)
Clinton 46.1% (--)
Other 6.3% (--)
First UPI release in nearly a week. They do not have the PDF attached, so I do not have the other numbers for the days missing in the tracker. If someone comes across it, please let me know.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-in-virtual-tie-heading-into-first-debate/8181474896561/
Clinton 47.8% (-0.3%)
Trump 47.1% (+1.0%)
Other 5.3% (-1.0%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/24 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Clinton 47.5% (--)
Clinton 46.1% (--)
Other 6.3% (--)
First UPI release in nearly a week. They do not have the PDF attached, so I do not have the other numbers for the days missing in the tracker. If someone comes across it, please let me know.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-in-virtual-tie-heading-into-first-debate/8181474896561/
Post has some topline math issues... not to be a dick about it, but thought you should know.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 26, 2016, 12:33:23 PM
Link for updates from last week:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20160925_National_1.pdf
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/20160925_National_1.pdf
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 26, 2016, 12:43:14 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/25 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.2
Clinton 47.8% (-0.3%)
Trump 47.1% (+1.0%)
Other 5.3% (-1.0%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/24 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Clinton 47.5% (--)
Clinton 46.1% (--)
Other 6.3% (--)
First UPI release in nearly a week. They do not have the PDF attached, so I do not have the other numbers for the days missing in the tracker. If someone comes across it, please let me know.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-in-virtual-tie-heading-into-first-debate/8181474896561/
Clinton 47.8% (-0.3%)
Trump 47.1% (+1.0%)
Other 5.3% (-1.0%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/24 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Clinton 47.5% (--)
Clinton 46.1% (--)
Other 6.3% (--)
First UPI release in nearly a week. They do not have the PDF attached, so I do not have the other numbers for the days missing in the tracker. If someone comes across it, please let me know.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-Donald-Trump-in-virtual-tie-heading-into-first-debate/8181474896561/
Post has some topline math issues... not to be a dick about it, but thought you should know.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Gass3268 on September 26, 2016, 03:38:46 PM
CVOTER now does a 50 state poll thing as well. Go onto 538 for the numbers.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: afleitch on September 26, 2016, 03:45:33 PM
CVOTER now does a 50 state poll thing as well. Go onto 538 for the numbers.
Where else :D
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 26, 2016, 03:49:44 PM
CVOTER now does a 50 state poll thing as well. Go onto 538 for the numbers.
Where else :D
.pdf embedded in the UPI release.
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/26/UPICVoter-state-polls-Donald-Trump-ahead-of-Hillary-Clinton-in-Electoral-College/3941474908310/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Sorenroy on September 26, 2016, 04:08:18 PM
CVOTER now does a 50 state poll thing as well. Go onto 538 for the numbers.
They don't seem that bad. Decent sample sizes (even in places like DC, Wyoming and Vermont), but missing third parties. Might account for their Utah numbers (66-28).
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 26, 2016, 04:25:03 PM
I created a .jpg off of a spreadsheet that I collected with the 50-state data and posted it on a separate thread here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=246721.0
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 28, 2016, 10:17:38 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/27 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton 47.9% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.7% (--%)
Other 4.5% (-0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.7% (+0.6%)
Clinton 47.5% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/28/UPICVoter-Hillary-Clinton-regains-slight-lead-in-first-post-debate-poll/8801475069632/
Marginal movement post-debate. Slight net Trump of about 0.5%. Not really worth talking about.
Clinton 47.9% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.7% (--%)
Other 4.5% (-0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.7% (+0.6%)
Clinton 47.5% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/28/UPICVoter-Hillary-Clinton-regains-slight-lead-in-first-post-debate-poll/8801475069632/
Marginal movement post-debate. Slight net Trump of about 0.5%. Not really worth talking about.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Wiz in Wis on September 28, 2016, 10:25:13 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/27 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton 47.9% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.7% (--%)
Other 4.5% (-0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.7% (+0.6%)
Clinton 47.5% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/28/UPICVoter-Hillary-Clinton-regains-slight-lead-in-first-post-debate-poll/8801475069632/
Marginal movement post-debate.
Clinton 47.9% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.7% (--%)
Other 4.5% (-0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.7% (+0.6%)
Clinton 47.5% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/28/UPICVoter-Hillary-Clinton-regains-slight-lead-in-first-post-debate-poll/8801475069632/
Marginal movement post-debate.
It would be unlikely to be that big a shift anyways... but even if we did just extrapolate that shift times 7 days (assuming the shift is constant across all days and doesn't grow/shrink), then we'd expect that Clinton gets a 2.8% bump - all things being equal (which is not at all likely). A small shift towards Clinton fits in with the conventional wisdom and poll structure. Of course, none of this takes into account the days that drop off either. Clinton had a relatively good day 7 days ago, so any gains may be muted by those days dropping off.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on September 28, 2016, 10:27:56 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/27 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +0.2%
Clinton 47.9% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.7% (--%)
Other 4.5% (-0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.7% (+0.6%)
Clinton 47.5% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/28/UPICVoter-Hillary-Clinton-regains-slight-lead-in-first-post-debate-poll/8801475069632/
Marginal movement post-debate.
Clinton 47.9% (+0.4%)
Trump 47.7% (--%)
Other 4.5% (-0.4%)
UPI/CVoter Through 9/26 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.2%
Trump 47.7% (+0.6%)
Clinton 47.5% (+0.1%)
Other 4.9% (-0.2%)
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/09/28/UPICVoter-Hillary-Clinton-regains-slight-lead-in-first-post-debate-poll/8801475069632/
Marginal movement post-debate.
It would be unlikely to be that big a shift anyways... but even if we did just extrapolate that shift times 7 days (assuming the shift is constant across all days and doesn't grow/shrink), then we'd expect that Clinton gets a 2.8% bump - all things being equal (which is not at all likely). A small shift towards Clinton fits in with the conventional wisdom and poll structure. Of course, none of this takes into account the days that drop off either.
Clinton does have a few positive +3 and +2 days coming off the cycle shortly.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll; Trump +2.0
Post by: Seriously? on October 02, 2016, 05:55:35 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 9/29 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.0%
Trump 49.3% (+0.2%)
Clinton 47.3% (+0.1%)
Other 3.4% (-0.3%)
1236 LV; September 23-29, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/28 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.9%
Trump 49.1% (+1.4%)
Clinton 47.2% (-0.7%)
Other 3.7% (-0.7%)
1234 LV; September 22-28, 2016
Source: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3117876-UPI-CVoter-29-Sept-2016.html#document/p1
Trump regains the lead.
Trump 49.3% (+0.2%)
Clinton 47.3% (+0.1%)
Other 3.4% (-0.3%)
1236 LV; September 23-29, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/28 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.9%
Trump 49.1% (+1.4%)
Clinton 47.2% (-0.7%)
Other 3.7% (-0.7%)
1234 LV; September 22-28, 2016
Source: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3117876-UPI-CVoter-29-Sept-2016.html#document/p1
Trump regains the lead.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on October 03, 2016, 10:24:31 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 10/2 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.5%
Trump 49.4% (+0.4%)
Clinton 46.9% (-0.6%)
Other 3.7% (+0.2%)
1285 LV; September 26-October 2, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/28 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.5%
Trump 49.0% (--%)
Clinton 47.5% (-0.3%)
Other 3.5% (+0.3%)
1288 LV; September 25-October 1, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/30 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.2%
Trump 49.0% (-0.3%)
Clinton 47.8% (+0.5%)
Other 3.2% (-0.2%)
1223 LV; September 24-30, 2016
If this tracker is to be believed, Trump gained about 2 points post debate.
Sourcing: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3118148-US2ndOct-Report.html#document/p1
Trump 49.4% (+0.4%)
Clinton 46.9% (-0.6%)
Other 3.7% (+0.2%)
1285 LV; September 26-October 2, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/28 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.5%
Trump 49.0% (--%)
Clinton 47.5% (-0.3%)
Other 3.5% (+0.3%)
1288 LV; September 25-October 1, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/30 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.2%
Trump 49.0% (-0.3%)
Clinton 47.8% (+0.5%)
Other 3.2% (-0.2%)
1223 LV; September 24-30, 2016
If this tracker is to be believed, Trump gained about 2 points post debate.
Sourcing: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3118148-US2ndOct-Report.html#document/p1
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 03, 2016, 10:29:00 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 10/2 (7-day rolling average) Trump +2.5%
Trump 49.4% (+0.4%)
Clinton 46.9% (-0.6%)
Other 3.7% (+0.2%)
1285 LV; September 26-October 2, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/28 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.5%
Trump 49.0% (--%)
Clinton 47.5% (-0.3%)
Other 3.5% (+0.3%)
1288 LV; September 25-October 1, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/30 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.2%
Trump 49.0% (-0.3%)
Clinton 47.8% (+0.5%)
Other 3.2% (-0.2%)
1223 LV; September 24-30, 2016
If this tracker is to be believed, Trump gained about 2 points post debate.
Sourcing: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3118148-US2ndOct-Report.html#document/p1
Trump 49.4% (+0.4%)
Clinton 46.9% (-0.6%)
Other 3.7% (+0.2%)
1285 LV; September 26-October 2, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/28 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.5%
Trump 49.0% (--%)
Clinton 47.5% (-0.3%)
Other 3.5% (+0.3%)
1288 LV; September 25-October 1, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 9/30 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.2%
Trump 49.0% (-0.3%)
Clinton 47.8% (+0.5%)
Other 3.2% (-0.2%)
1223 LV; September 24-30, 2016
If this tracker is to be believed, Trump gained about 2 points post debate.
Sourcing: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3118148-US2ndOct-Report.html#document/p1
At minimum, the methodologies of these polls clearly appear to be creating divergent results.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on October 05, 2016, 12:29:23 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 10/4 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.6%
Trump 47.8% (-0.7)
Clinton 47.2% (-0.1)
Other 5.0% (+0.8 )
1,274 LV; September 28-October 4, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/3 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.2%
Trump 48.5% (-0.9)
Clinton 47.3% (+0.4)
Other 4.2% (+0.5)
1,275 LV; September 27-October 3, 2016
Source: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3123324-US4thOct-Report.html#document/p1
Trump 47.8% (-0.7)
Clinton 47.2% (-0.1)
Other 5.0% (+0.8 )
1,274 LV; September 28-October 4, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/3 (7-day rolling average) Trump +1.2%
Trump 48.5% (-0.9)
Clinton 47.3% (+0.4)
Other 4.2% (+0.5)
1,275 LV; September 27-October 3, 2016
Source: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3123324-US4thOct-Report.html#document/p1
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on October 09, 2016, 12:22:19 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 10/4 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +1.0%
Clinton 47.7% (+0.4)
Trump 46.7% (-0.7)
Other 5.6% (+0.2 )
1,250 LV; September 30-October 6, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/5 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.1%
Trump 47.4% (-0.4)
Clinton 47.3% (+0.1)
Other 5.4% (+0.4)
1,257 LV; September 29-October 5, 2016
Clinton 47.7% (+0.4)
Trump 46.7% (-0.7)
Other 5.6% (+0.2 )
1,250 LV; September 30-October 6, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/5 (7-day rolling average) Trump +0.1%
Trump 47.4% (-0.4)
Clinton 47.3% (+0.1)
Other 5.4% (+0.4)
1,257 LV; September 29-October 5, 2016
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Ozymandias on October 10, 2016, 10:05:44 AM
Note only 3 of the 7 surveyed days are post-pgate:
UPI/CVoter Through 10/9 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.5%
Clinton 49.9% (+1.7)
Trump 44.4% (-1.5)
Other 5.7% (-0.2)
1,350 LV; October 3-October 9, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/8 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 48.2%
Trump 45.9%
Other 5.9%
1,325 LV; October 2-October 8, 2016
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/10/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-pulls-into-5-point-lead-over-Donald-Trump/7301476105358/
UPI/CVoter Through 10/9 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.5%
Clinton 49.9% (+1.7)
Trump 44.4% (-1.5)
Other 5.7% (-0.2)
1,350 LV; October 3-October 9, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/8 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 48.2%
Trump 45.9%
Other 5.9%
1,325 LV; October 2-October 8, 2016
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/10/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-pulls-into-5-point-lead-over-Donald-Trump/7301476105358/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Lief 🗽 on October 10, 2016, 10:09:44 AM
what a glorious surge!
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: dspNY on October 10, 2016, 10:15:26 AM
Note only 3 of the 7 surveyed days are post-pgate:
UPI/CVoter Through 10/9 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.5%
Clinton 49.9% (+1.7)
Trump 44.4% (-1.5)
Other 5.7% (-0.2)
1,350 LV; October 3-October 9, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/8 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 48.2%
Trump 45.9%
Other 5.9%
1,325 LV; October 2-October 8, 2016
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/10/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-pulls-into-5-point-lead-over-Donald-Trump/7301476105358/
UPI/CVoter Through 10/9 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.5%
Clinton 49.9% (+1.7)
Trump 44.4% (-1.5)
Other 5.7% (-0.2)
1,350 LV; October 3-October 9, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/8 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +2.3%
Clinton 48.2%
Trump 45.9%
Other 5.9%
1,325 LV; October 2-October 8, 2016
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/10/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-pulls-into-5-point-lead-over-Donald-Trump/7301476105358/
I think all the trackers are junky but that kind of movement makes sense after what came out about Trump
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 10, 2016, 10:22:22 AM
Hillary is grabbing this tracker by the p***y!
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 10, 2016, 10:27:26 AM
UPI likely underestimates Democratic margin because of this.
"Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated."
Trump supporters are far more likely to take self-participant polls, as evidenced by their overzealous will to spam click on Trump's first debate poll.
"Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated."
Trump supporters are far more likely to take self-participant polls, as evidenced by their overzealous will to spam click on Trump's first debate poll.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 10, 2016, 10:39:23 AM
UPI likely underestimates Democratic margin because of this.
"Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated."
Trump supporters are far more likely to take self-participant polls, as evidenced by their overzealous will to spam click on Trump's first debate poll.
"Because the poll is conducted online and individuals self-select to participate, a margin of error cannot be calculated."
Trump supporters are far more likely to take self-participant polls, as evidenced by their overzealous will to spam click on Trump's first debate poll.
Results are still weighted by demo and then they apply an LV screen, so it's probably a minimal effect, if at all.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Gustaf on October 10, 2016, 11:09:36 AM
Their latest map isn't implausible:
(
)
(
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Mallow on October 10, 2016, 11:14:17 AM
Their latest map isn't implausible:
Not only is it not implausible, it's probably one of the top five most likely maps. Perhaps even top three.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Ozymandias on October 11, 2016, 10:10:59 AM
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/11/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-gains-as-Donald-Trump-continues-to-slide/2801476186502/?spt=su&or=btn_tw
UPI/CVoter Through 10/10 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +6.1%
Clinton 50.2% (+0.3)
Trump 44.0% (-0.3)
Other 5.7%
1,367 LV; October 4-October 10, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/10 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +6.1%
Clinton 50.2% (+0.3)
Trump 44.0% (-0.3)
Other 5.7%
1,367 LV; October 4-October 10, 2016
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: F_S_USATN on October 11, 2016, 10:20:14 AM
oh look seriously? stopped updating this poll, SAD!
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Ozymandias on October 11, 2016, 10:26:05 AM
oh look seriously? stopped updating this poll, SAD!
they don't always post daily updates so it's easy to miss a day or two
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: pbrower2a on October 11, 2016, 10:26:35 AM
Some of this is after the "crotch-grabbing" news; some of this is after the second debate. The rest is from before both.
We can see a Trump collapse appearing more slowly in a polling aggregate that contains seven days than in the short-term polls that Atlantic Monthly and NBC/Wall Street Journal showed.
In view of the acidic editorial of George F. Will denouncing Donald Trump for acting more like a Third World demagogue than like any Presidential nominee from one of the two main Parties that any of us can remember, most of us can intuit a Trump collapse.
We can see a Trump collapse appearing more slowly in a polling aggregate that contains seven days than in the short-term polls that Atlantic Monthly and NBC/Wall Street Journal showed.
In view of the acidic editorial of George F. Will denouncing Donald Trump for acting more like a Third World demagogue than like any Presidential nominee from one of the two main Parties that any of us can remember, most of us can intuit a Trump collapse.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on October 11, 2016, 10:45:42 AM
oh look seriously? stopped updating this poll, SAD!
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on October 12, 2016, 11:35:11 AM
UPI/CVoter Through 10/11 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +6.4%
Clinton 50.6% (+0.4)
Trump 44.2% (+0.1)
Other 5.2% (-0.5)
1,367 LV; October 5-October 11, 2016
[/quote]
Clinton 50.6% (+0.4)
Trump 44.2% (+0.1)
Other 5.2% (-0.5)
1,367 LV; October 5-October 11, 2016
[/quote]
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 12, 2016, 11:39:37 AM
Their latest map isn't implausible:
()
(
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Seriously? on October 14, 2016, 12:48:23 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 10/11 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.0%
Clinton 50.2% (-0.2)
Trump 45.2% (+0.5)
Other 4.5% (-0.3)
1,482 LV; October 7-October 13, 2016
[/quote]
UPI/CVoter Through 10/12 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.8%
Clinton 50.5% (-0.1)
Trump 44.7% (+0.5)
Other 4.8% (-0.4)
1,402 LV; October 6-October 12, 2016
[/quote]
Clinton 50.2% (-0.2)
Trump 45.2% (+0.5)
Other 4.5% (-0.3)
1,482 LV; October 7-October 13, 2016
[/quote]
UPI/CVoter Through 10/12 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.8%
Clinton 50.5% (-0.1)
Trump 44.7% (+0.5)
Other 4.8% (-0.4)
1,402 LV; October 6-October 12, 2016
[/quote]
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: PollsDontLie on October 14, 2016, 12:50:24 PM
UPI/CVoter Through 10/11 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.0%
Clinton 50.2% (-0.2)
Trump 45.2% (+0.5)
Other 4.5% (-0.3)
1,482 LV; October 7-October 13, 2016
Clinton 50.2% (-0.2)
Trump 45.2% (+0.5)
Other 4.5% (-0.3)
1,482 LV; October 7-October 13, 2016
UPI/CVoter Through 10/12 (7-day rolling average) Clinton +5.8%
Clinton 50.5% (-0.1)
Trump 44.7% (+0.5)
Other 4.8% (-0.4)
1,402 LV; October 6-October 12, 2016
[/quote]
[/quote]
Something looks wrong with your +/- numbers.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: cinyc on October 24, 2016, 06:12:07 PM
10/17-10/23: Clinton+3.07 (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/24/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clintons-lead-over-Donald-Trump-narrows-to-307-points/7031477307768/?spt=hrs&or=2)
Clinton 49.46%
Trump 46.39%
Others 4.15%
Clinton 49.46%
Trump 46.39%
Others 4.15%
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 24, 2016, 06:42:12 PM
10/17-10/23: Clinton+3.07 (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/24/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clintons-lead-over-Donald-Trump-narrows-to-307-points/7031477307768/?spt=hrs&or=2)
Clinton 49.46%
Trump 46.39%
Others 4.15%
Clinton 49.46%
Trump 46.39%
Others 4.15%
The decimals...<gasp>...the decimals...
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: cinyc on October 24, 2016, 06:43:38 PM
10/17-10/23: Clinton+3.07 (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/24/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clintons-lead-over-Donald-Trump-narrows-to-307-points/7031477307768/?spt=hrs&or=2)
Clinton 49.46%
Trump 46.39%
Others 4.15%
Clinton 49.46%
Trump 46.39%
Others 4.15%
Not just tenths... hundredths! The champion of decimals.
The decimals...<gasp>...the decimals...
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: cinyc on October 27, 2016, 02:46:58 PM
10/19-10/25 (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/27/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-leads-Donald-Trump-by-3-points/7581477575891/?spt=hts&or=1): Clinton +2.86
Clinton 49.38%
Trump 46.52%
Others 4.10%
The 10/18-24 sample was Clinton +2.41.
Clinton 49.38%
Trump 46.52%
Others 4.10%
The 10/18-24 sample was Clinton +2.41.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: mencken on October 27, 2016, 07:13:54 PM
Why are the state breakdowns all of a sudden missing from 538's database?
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Ebsy on October 27, 2016, 07:44:38 PM
Why are the state breakdowns all of a sudden missing from 538's database?
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: cinyc on October 28, 2016, 12:20:38 PM
10/20-10/26 (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/28/UPICVoter-poll-Clintons-lead-slips-below-2-percent/5601477668222/?spt=hts&or=1): Clinton +1.89
Clinton 48.84%
Trump's 46.95%
Others 4.21%
Clinton 48.84%
Trump's 46.95%
Others 4.21%
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 31, 2016, 10:03:56 AM
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/31/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clintons-lead-over-Donald-Trump-shrinks-to-47/2441477919030/
The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Monday shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by less than half a percentage point at .47.
Clinton 48.34
Trump's 47.87
Ohter 3.79
The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Monday shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by less than half a percentage point at .47.
Clinton 48.34
Trump's 47.87
Ohter 3.79
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: cinyc on November 02, 2016, 10:15:03 AM
10/26-11/1 (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/11/02/UPICVoter-poll-Clinton-has-less-than-1-point-lead-over-Trump/9421478096457/): Clinton +0.67
Clinton 48.81%
Trump 48.14%
Other 3.05%
Clinton 48.81%
Trump 48.14%
Other 3.05%
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on November 02, 2016, 10:44:44 AM
10/20-10/26 (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/28/UPICVoter-poll-Clintons-lead-slips-below-2-percent/5601477668222/?spt=hts&or=1): Clinton +1.89
Clinton 48.84%
Trump's 46.95%
Others 4.21%
Clinton 48.84%
Trump's 46.95%
Others 4.21%
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/10/31/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clintons-lead-over-Donald-Trump-shrinks-to-47/2441477919030/
The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Monday shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by less than half a percentage point at .47.
Clinton 48.34
Trump's 47.87
Ohter 3.79
The UPI/CVoter daily presidential tracking poll released Monday shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by less than half a percentage point at .47.
Clinton 48.34
Trump's 47.87
Ohter 3.79
10/26-11/1 (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/11/02/UPICVoter-poll-Clinton-has-less-than-1-point-lead-over-Trump/9421478096457/): Clinton +0.67
Clinton 48.81%
Trump 48.14%
Other 3.05%
Clinton 48.81%
Trump 48.14%
Other 3.05%
Clinton holding steady. Undecideds and faux-3rd-party fleeing to Trump. Hopefully that "flight to deplorable" is mainly in states Clinton doesn't need.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: dspNY on November 06, 2016, 02:34:05 PM
UPI survey indicates a late break back to Clinton:
Clinton 49.25%
Trump 45.92%
She led by 1 the day before
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3214801-US5th-Nov-Report.html
Clinton 49.25%
Trump 45.92%
She led by 1 the day before
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3214801-US5th-Nov-Report.html
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2016, 02:57:26 PM
Very possible that a Clinton surge could be materializing just in time for election day.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2016, 03:04:47 PM
Why Rasmussem and Lucky Pickle didn't post any numbers this weekend?
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 03:06:51 PM
Why Rasmussem and Lucky Pickle didn't post any numbers this weekend?
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: cinyc on November 06, 2016, 09:41:31 PM
Why Rasmussem and Lucky Pickle didn't post any numbers this weekend?
Neither does Lucid/New Orleans Times-Picayune.
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 07, 2016, 02:29:35 PM
hillary now leading by .....2,78.....points...or something..
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/11/07/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-holds-slim-lead-over-Donald-Trump-on-eve-of-election/5881478528364/
http://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2016/11/07/UPICVoter-poll-Hillary-Clinton-holds-slim-lead-over-Donald-Trump-on-eve-of-election/5881478528364/
Title: Re: UPI/CVoter daily tracking poll
Post by: Ebsy on November 07, 2016, 02:33:10 PM
Takeaway from this is that Clinton is at 49% of the vote and has been all week.