Talk Elections

Iowa: Clinton 41 - Trump 37  (Clinton +4)
Ohio: Clinton 43 - Trump 38 (Clinton +5)
Pennsylvania:  Clinton 48 - Trump 37 (Clinton +11)

Iowa: Clinton 35 - Trump 35 - Johnson 12 - Stein 6 (TIE)
Ohio: Clinton 39 - Trump 35 - Johnson 12 - Stein 4 (Clinton +4)
Pennsylvania: Clinton 45 - Trump 36 - Johnson 9 - Stein 3 (Clinton +9)
 
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/first-read/polls-clinton-ahead-trump-midwest-battlegrounds-n626541

Dominating!

Ayy lmao

The election is over.

Likely D PA. This election is over... for now.

Welp.

Clinton starting to blow Trump out in Pennsylvania. Ohio and Iowa are also nice but I wish she were closer to 50

Hmm, it seems like IA and OH might sharply trend R this year.  Interesting.

I can't keep count but looks like Hillz will win PA by 10+ points.

It will probably mostly have to do with shifts in the white high school educated vote.

When the 2016 presidential race is expanded to four candidates - including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and the Green Party's Jill Stein - Clinton and Trump are tied at 35 percent each in Iowa, with Johnson at 12 percent and Stein at 6 percent. (Last month in the state, Clinton and Trump were tied in the four-way horserace at 37 percent.)

In Ohio, Clinton gets the support of 39 percent of registered voters, Trump gets 35 percent, Johnson gets 12 percent and Stein gets 4 percent. (It was Clinton 38 percent, Trump 35 percent last month.)

And in Pennsylvania, it's Clinton at 45 percent, Trump at 36 percent, Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 3 percent. (The numbers are nearly identical to what they were before the conventions last month.)

I think this isn't so much a trend as inelasticity.  Notice that even her PA number is about her average lead.  Clinton is maxing out in a lot of the swing states, and much of the movement we're seeing is in more Republican states.  If she's really up like 5 points in Georgia, making it close in AZ, MO, etc.  Then the national margin makes sense.

RIP Trump

I find it really hard to believe that Johnson/Stein are pulling between 15-20% in November.

I cannot fathom 6% of Iowans voting for that batsh**t crazy lunatic.

I mean, Nader got just over 2% in 2000... have a hard time thinking Stein would triple that.

Third party numbers are crazy high for swing states. I have to believe they'll come down at some point.

OH and PA results are about what you'd expect, but Iowa does surprise me, even though it has been among Trump's best swing states.  

Beside the fact that Trump's demeanor just doesn't seem like it fits with the state, Iowa has been pretty consistent since 1992 in voting approximately 1-2 points more Dem than the nation.  Is it really about to vote 4-6 points more R than the country?

I just hope Clinton wins PA by 4-5 so that Toomey can get re-elected.

Weird that Iowa is that close (in the 4-way), but I do remember Iowa trending toward Obama in the fall. Pennsylvania is looking long gone for Trump, which would be the end of his hopes of victory. Ohio's looks like it'll be to the right of the nation, but right now, it's looking pretty good for Hillary.

I think Virginia is the new bellweather - it has the mix of demographics that fit with the nation as a whole and will probably be close to the national popular vote.

rofl lmao Pennslyvania.

BUT TRUMP'S GONNA FLIP IT

Luzerne county and the Reagan Democrats will flip PA for Trump.

Zombie Reagan Democrats will rise from the grave and vote in droves for Trump, who has destroyed Reagan style conservatism, because... greatness?

Very nice !
My main fear is IA. Hope Hillary can hold this state.
Things look good right now for Clinton in OH, but this state may swing towards R as election day nears (probably be a true toss-up state).

My thinking is any true "tossup" on election day will go for Hillary based on her field operations and ground game. Trump has nothing in any of these states.

I think this poll has a bit of a conservative sample considering that Obama's approvals aren't above 50% in any of these states.

All these polls with PA solidly backing Clinton...so much for being a "swing state."

Interested to see more polls from my home state. With Grassley still safe, but not up by his usual margin, makes me think that anything within the margin of error for Clinton/Trump goes to Clinton.

It would be interesting to see regional breakdowns within OH, particularly Metro Cinci and Columbus. I think there is some room for Hillary to expand among White suburban women in both regions, to help offset an expected Trump Male bump in Eastern OH (Youngstown, Canton, etc...) and possibly Toledo as well.

Hopefully we'll get a Columbus Dispatch poll before too long to see what it's looking like in the "five or six states of Ohio".

Also, Eastern PA does not exist!

Looks like the muh Iowa whites theory may have some ground to stand on after all, lol.

I come home after a long first day of the 10th Grade (which was surprisingly better than expected) and find all of these polls with Hillary leading over Trump is very encouraging TBH.

Maybe betting the farm on PA as his tipping point isn't a good move for Trump.   Although it isn't exactly clear what other path is easier.  It could be that Obama was a bad fit for the state (clinging to their god and guns) and Clinton is reversing the recent trend.

When PA is as consistently D as Michigan, you know it's gone.

Not to mention that she does have some "home state roots", decimated Obama in the primaries based on running on a "jobs and economy" platform versus an "anti-war" platform in a state with a high percentage of military veterans ("Deer Hunter" Country) with an aging blue-collar population in most regions of the state outside of metro Philly where the economic recovery of the '90s under Bill Clinton was real after 12 years of economic collapse. Additionally, she topped it off the night before the '08 Dem primary with the famous shot of doing a boilermaker in a bowling alley with a burly union worker somewhere outside of Pittsburgh.

I think you're right that she does have street cred in many parts of PA that Obama did not, and she has added to that because of the repugnance many swing voters in the Philly 'burbs feel towards the current Republican candidate.

Trump can do a McCain and go "all in" for PA, but yeah not sure what other options are out there unless he can get the race down to 3-4% in national polling (Assuming equal distribution in swing states).

Those are some impressive numbers for Johnson and Stein in Iowa.

Iowa Democrats are super white and very liberal, so Stein's numbers there aren't surprising.

I think Hilary may be underestimated in Iowa. This poll has her up 31% with white college grads and down only 7% with white non college. I know Iowa has a lot of non college whites but these numbers should add up to more like an 8-9% Hillary lead not 4%.

http://maristpoll.marist.edu/810-clinton-trump-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-leads-trump-in-pennsylvania/ (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/810-clinton-trump-competitive-in-iowa-ohio-clinton-leads-trump-in-pennsylvania/)

More info, crosstabs, etc.

Sigh.

Once again, a much less diverse electorate in OH and PA than what we saw in 2012

OH was 79% white, 15% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 84-12
PA was 79% white, 13% African American in 2012 and this poll has it 82-9

Are you using exit-polls or voter files?

New York Times exit polls from 2012

You should look into some of the work Nate Cohen has done as he's found that based on voter files, the exit polls in 2012 oversampled minorities compared to who actually voted. Going based on voter files is probably a better way to go.

For reference: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/10/upshot/there-are-more-white-voters-than-people-think-thats-good-news-for-trump.html

The unskewers are everywhere.

Should be noted that this was before Trump tanked with white college educated voters (particularly women).

If Wisconsin is near 15 then Iowa will be closer to 10 than 5. I stand by my post.

Agreed. Iowa is only 4-5 points right of Wisconsin and sometimes only 2-3

()

There is no point to talk about any path, while Trump is down 8 points nationally ::)