Talk Elections

Current
2-way (Change from 10/6) Clinton +7.8
Clinton            44.6% (+2.3%)
Trump             36.8%  (-1.7%)
Other                8.6%  (-1.1%)
Refused             6.4%  (+0.1%)  
Would Not Vote  3.6%  (+0.5%)

2,539 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

4-way (change from 10/6) Clinton +7.2
Clinton                       44.3% (+2.7%)
Trump                        37.1% (-0.6%)
Johnson                      5.9%   (-2.6%)
Stein                          2.1%   (+0.2%)
Don't Know/Refused      5.8%   (-0.2%)  
Other                          2.3%   (-0.6%)
Won't Vote                  2.5%   (+1.0%)

2,359 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

Word of caution here, more than 1/2 of the poll is from 10/10 only (a double-debate poll).

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day

First tracked poll for this thread
2-way Clinton +7.3%
Clinton                       42.1%
Trump                        34.8%
Other                          11.8%
Don’t Know/Refused     8.0%
Wouldn’t Vote              3.8%

1,154 LV (August 4-8, 2016)

4-way Clinton +6.2%
Clinton                       40.5%
Trump                        34.3%
Johnson                      7.7%
Stein                           2.2%
Don’t Know/Refused     8.3%
Other                          4.3%
Wouldn’t Vote              2.7%

1,154 LV (August 4-8, 2016)

According to this writeup:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-idUSKCN10L1JT

"nearly one fifth" of Republicans in this poll said that Trump should drop out of the race, and another 10% said they weren't sure if he should.

It's because they're junk.

2-way (% change from 8/8) Clinton +5.6%
Clinton            41.2% (-0.9%)
Trump             35.6% (+0.8%)
Other              10.6% (-0.7%)
Refused           8.7% (+0.7%)
Wouldn’t Vote  3.9% (+0.1%)

1,116 LV (August 7-11, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/8) Clinton +5.2%
Clinton                       40.5% (--%)
Trump                        35.3% (+1.0%)
Johnson                      7.2% (-0.5%)
Stein                           2.5% (+0.3%)
Don’t Know/Refused     8.1% (-0.2%)
Other                          3.4% (-0.8%)
Wouldn’t Vote              3.1% (+0.4%)

1,115 LV (August 7-11, 2016)

Note: Rounding 40.5 to 41 and 35.3% down to 35 creates a the +6 4-way margin, margin in 4-way is 5.2% with decimals.

Likewise, rounding 41.2 down to 41 and rounding 35.6 up to 36 creates +5 in 2-way, even though margin is 5.6% with decimals.

I wonder how many Democrats would say Clinton should drop out just cause?

8/15 release. Clinton up slightly from 8/11 release.

2-way (% change from 8/11) Clinton +6.2%
Clinton            41.4% (+0.2%)
Trump             35.2% (-0.4%)
Other              10.7% (--%)
Refused           8.2% (-0.5%)
Wouldn’t Vote  3.6% (+0.7%)

1,132 LV (August 10-15, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/11) Clinton +6.0%
Clinton                       40.4% (-0.1%)
Trump                        34.4% (-0.9%)
Johnson                      8.1% (+0.9%)
Stein                           2.2% (-0.3%)
Don’t Know/Refused     7.7% (-0.4%)
Other                          3.2% (-0.2%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4.1% (+1.0%)

1,132 LV (August 10-15, 2016)

Current
2-way (% change from 8/15) Clinton +5%
Clinton            41% (--%)
Trump             36% (+1%)
Other              10% (-1%)
Refused           9% (+1%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4% (--%)

1,049 LV (August 12-17, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/15) Clinton +4%
Clinton                       39% (-1%)
Trump                        35% (+1%)
Johnson                      9% (+1%)
Stein                           3% (+1%)
Don’t Know/Refused      8% (--%)
Other                          4% (+1%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4% (--%)

1,049 LV (August 12-17, 2016)

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_8.17_.16_.pdf

Note: Polling Explorer has not been updated yet. I don't have the decimal track, I will change once those numbers are available.

That or just regular fluidity in the polls. It's called Margin of Error for a reason.

There's definitely a regression to pre-convention levels. You can see it in the USC tracker. Trump enthusiasm is almost matching Clinton's at this point. Also, with a lot of these R/D/I breakdowns, the levels of non-support by partisans is similar between Clinton and Trump.

Once these RV go the way of the dodo bird, which should be in the next few weeks, It will be a 3-5 point race again.

Its funny seeing you cling to the junk daily tracking polls most of us have written off.

Except when the data is reduced to practice and the opposite is true. See Reuters.

Another junk tracking poll.

And empirical evidence that every LV poll is to the right of RV polls from every pollster.

Current
2-way (% change from 8/17) Clinton +8.1%
Clinton            42.3% (+1.2%)
Trump             34.2% (-1.8%)
Other              9.1% (-0.5%)
Refused           10.1% (+1.1%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4.2% (-0.1%)

1,119 LV (August 13-18, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/17) Clinton +7.0%
Clinton                       40.6% (+1.1%)
Trump                        33.6% (-1.8%)
Johnson                      7.1% (+0.1%)
Stein                           2.1% (+--%)
Don’t Know/Refused      9.9% (+1.5%)
Other                          3.4% (-0.3%)
Wouldn’t Vote              3.2% (-0.5%)

1,118 LV (August 13-18, 2016)

It's a significant increase from the 8/17 polling in Hillary's favor.

These polling fluctuations are odd indeed.

It's Reuters, they've been like this for months.

Reuters is junk and shouldn't be taken seriously.

None of the daily tracking polls should be taken seriously.

Weird volatility. I keep following these daily trackers to see if they ever show signs of emerging trends, but I agree, they're all really questionable.

The debate commission isn't taking them seriously. end thread

Tracking polls are garbage.

Weird, I was told that a Clinton +8 lead was a huge outlier that only Democratic hack polling firms would come up with........

Junk.

that being said, maybe people are laughing at his fake apology.

You're confusing the 2-way numbers with the 4-way numbers, but I digress. And yes, it was a partisan poll.

Glorious poll.

Seriously is making krazey proud with his furious unskewing.

Point me to where I unskewed a thing about this poll? I haven't commented on the numbers at all.

I apologize if I can't take a DEMOCRAT internal poll seriously, however.

Current
2-way (% change from 8/18) Clinton +12.0%
Clinton            44.8% (+2.5%)
Trump             32.8% (-1.4%)
Other              8.1% (-1.0%)
Refused           10.9% (+1.8%)
Wouldn’t Vote  3.4% (-0.8%)

1,115 LV (August 18-22, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/18) Clinton +8.2%
Clinton                       41.4% (+0.8%)
Trump                        33.2% (-0.4%)
Johnson                      6.9% (-0.2%)
Stein                           2.3% (+0.2%)
Don’t Know/Refused    10.8% (+0.8%)
Other                          2.9% (-0.5%)
Wouldn’t Vote              2.6% (-0.6%)

1,115 LV (August 18-22, 2016)

I will never understand what the hell is going on at Reuters's polling division.

It seems like Clinton's surge back into a huge lead is due to a 20 point increase in support with nonwhite voters, who she now leads Trump by 77 points with.

()

She's also only trailing among whites by 1 point.

I'm just taking all these daily trackers with a grain of salt, whether it is the LA Times showing a tie or Reuters showing Clinton up double digits

RV is now to the right of LV again. Roughly Hillary +2 in the 2-way, a marginal Hillary +0.2 in the 4-way.

Odd poll to say the least. Hillary basically gained 6 points since 8/19.

Lol Reuters

Yes I agree.
The only thing I can see (somewhat) beneficial from these types of daily polls, is to get a sense of a trend that might be happening. So as long as these polls keep their strange methodology the same (constant), then you can see what is taking place over a week or two-week period, etc.
Thus their display of graphs charting their results, is what you want to concentrate on.

Even LA Times indicates that Trump goes down/Clinton — up.

I was told that the national tracking polls showed Trump with all the momentum though ???

uh they're bad at what they do?

that's easy to understand. Nobody should be showing a 12 point lead at 45% anymore.

Current
2-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +7%
Clinton            42% (-3%)
Trump             35% (+2%)
Other              9% (+1%)
Refused           9% (-2%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4% (+1%)

1,049 LV (August 20-24, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +3%
Clinton                       39% (-2%)
Trump                        36% (+3%)
Johnson                      7% (--%)
Stein                           3% (+1%)
Don’t Know/Refused    8% (-3%)
Other                          3% (--%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4% (+1%)

1,049 LV (August 20-24, 2016)

Note: Polling Explorer not updated. Don't have decimal track
Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/2016_Reuters_Tracking_-_Core_Political_8.24_.16_.pdf

Rewters

Yup. Bouncing around like a yo-yo. Putting out releases and not updating the underlying poll... Just wait until tomorrow when the most pro-Hillary day (8/20) rolls off.

Current
2-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +5.3%
Clinton            41.4% (-3.8%)
Trump             36.1% (+3.3%)
Other              8.6% (-0.5%)
Refused           8.6% (-2.3%)
Wouldn’t Vote  5.4% (+2.0%)

1,154 LV (August 21-25, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/22) Clinton +2.9%
Clinton                       39.3% (-2.1%)
Trump                        36.4% (+3.2%)
Johnson                      6.5% (-0.4%)
Stein                          2.8% (+0.5%)
Don’t Know/Refused    8.3% (-2.5%)
Other                          2.3% (-0.6%)
Wouldn’t Vote              4.4% (+1.8%)

1,154 LV (August 21-25, 2016)

*Note: 8/22 numbers used for comparison instead of 8/24 because 8/22 was last decimal track release.

RIP HILLARY :'(

Obama won with 3.5 million votes and won in a landslide. Trump is performing at Romney levels.

I wouldn't call a 4% win a landslide.

The Obama 2008 numbers were closer to a landslide vs. McCain at ~7%.

They were awful in the primaries, they are awful now. ALL DAILY TRACKERS ARE AWFUL.

Am I? Which daily tracker is any good?

Leave The LA Times Poll Alone!
Instead of arguing about it or ignoring it, adjust for it.

By Nate Silver (http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-leave-the-la-times-poll-alone/)

If I have to personally adjust 6 points for one candidate in order to correct flawed methodology and to assume im getting more accurate results, the poll is junk.

Sigh...
Clearly, Trump is underperforming among uneducated :(

Hes got your support, doesnt he?

I honestly could not tell you what's right and what's wrong at this point until we have a lot more LV polls from the companies that conduct primarily live interview calls.

As of right now, these internet poll/daily trackers with either panels or groups of voters are all LV and seem to favor Trump the most. The primarily internet polls over a few day span come next, then the traditional telephone polls.

We'll get a better idea of possible methodological bias once the telephone polls start employing LV screens.

Honestly though, at the end of the day, I do think the Hillary lead will be around 3-points in the 4-way and 5-points in the 2-way when the LV screen is employed and the variance among most non-outlier polls will be narrower.

Current
2-way (% change from 8/25) Clinton +0.6%
Clinton            39.7% (-1.7%)
Trump             39.1% (+3.0%)
Other              8.8% (+0.2%)
Refused           7.5% (-1.1%)
Wouldn’t Vote  4.9% (-0.5%)

1,397 LV (August 25-29, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/25) Clinton +1.5%
Clinton                       39.5% (-0.3%)
Trump                        38.0% (+1.6%)
Johnson                      5.7% (-0.8%)
Stein                          2.1% (-0.7%)
Don’t Know/Refused    7.3% (-1.0%)
Other                          3.6% (+1.3%)
Wouldn’t Vote              3.8% (-0.6%)

1,400 LV (August 25-29, 2016)

Ipsos is the best pollster I know. After LA Times ;D

I guess you only know two pollsters then.

I don't understand how a "likely voter", who first answers that he's likely to vote, then says "wouldn't vote" in the GE question ...

Dems have no sense of humor, are they? :)

I don't either. Those respondents should be thrown in the trash for that question. How can they get past a LV screen if they don't intend to vote?

Leave it blank and vote on the other questions?

I can only think of this: First, the person says he's likely to vote but when presented with the 4 candidates, he's like "meh, I won't vote at all for these people" ... :P

Once again, Reuters/Ipsos is just legitimately bad at this. They're bad when Clinton is up 14 and bad when Trump is up 2.

but keep on pointing on these polls as the reason things are TIGHTENING FOLKS.

About 6% of LV are not RV according to IPSOS. I thought, that non-RV don't get through screening ???

And if you switch LV to LV&RV, "Wouldn't Vote" option loses 2% on average, from 4% to 2%.  

84% said that they are registered to vote.
67% said that they are likely to vote.
62% said that they are registered AND likely to vote.

So 62/84 of registered voters said that they are likely to vote.
But 5/16 of non-registered voters said that they are likely to vote.

So Clem says: I meant to register after I moved here.
Interviewer: When was that?
Clem: Back in '78. I really liked Reagan and would have voted for him, but I somehow didn't get around to it. Then Bush came along and I kind of lost interest in politics, but with Trump I'm kind of getting excited (scratches himself).

Among the 67% likely voters, 3.8% said they "Wouldn't Vote". Among the 62% who were registered and likely, 1.9% said they wouldn't vote. So among the 5% Likely, but Unregistered, 27% said they "Wouldn't Vote".

I could not find the text of the questions asked, but they presumably asked whether someone was likely to vote and registered to vote before they started asking other questions.

Are you likely to attempt to lose weight in the next six months?
Do you currently exercise most days?
If you were to attempt to lose weight, would you walk, swim, jog, go to a gym, do yoga, reduce your food consumption, some other exercise, don't know, or wouldn't lose weight?

Answers of Yes, No, and Wouldn't are totally consistent.

Oh Reuters, showing a poll through 9/4 right now with 171 respondents with Clinton +12 in the two-way and +11 in the 4-way...

Holding before posting because, well, it's not 9/4.

Are you maybe starting to understand why the rest of us don't trust Reuters?

I understand why you don't trust Reuters. A data point is a data point. I am merely posting them without comment, generally.

Link?

They've since modified the Polling Explorer website and took it off and on intermittently. you may or may not catch it.

2-way
http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/type/week/dates/20160801-20160930/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

4-way
http://polling.reuters.com/#!poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/type/week/dates/20160801-20160901/collapsed/true/spotlight/1

But it is just weekly view. Aug 29 - Sep 4. But they've probably only realised for one day (29). Nothing strange IMHO.

Probably another methological change. They got rid of the daily data points. We'll see what happens when they get it right.

Current
2-way (% change from 8/29) Trump +1%
Trump             40% (+1.0%)
Clinton            39% (-1.0%)

1,804 LV (August 26-September 1, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/29) TIED
Clinton                       39% (-1%)
Trump                        39% (+1%)
Johnson                      7% (+1%)
Stein                          2% (--%)

1,804 LV (August 26-September 1, 2016)

Seems like a methodological change from 5-day to 7-day rolling average.

*-Don't know, refused and other not disclosed.
Polling Explorer not updated.

Source: https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-catches-clinton-latest-reuters-ipsos-poll-finds-215514755.html?ref=gs

major news

Reuters once again strutting it's junkiness.

How do you change methodologies in the poll like 9 times in a summer?

You're Reuters or they delegated the writeup to an intern at the start of a holiday weekend. Your pick.

What's causing Trump to surge? lol

Hillary being a crooked beeotch

Cut it out with the sexist language, you pig.

Current
2-way (% change from 9/1) Clinton +2%
Clinton            40% (+1%)
Trump             38% (-2%)

1,760 LV (September 1 - September 5, 2016)

4-way (% change from 8/29) TIED
Clinton                       40% (+1%)
Trump                        38% (-1%)
Johnson                      8% (+1%)
Stein                          3% (+1%)

1,760 LV (September 1 - September 5, 2016)

Back to a 5-day rolling average. Polling explorer remains borked. Sourcing is from Ipsos.

Source: http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7361

Current
2-way Clinton +1.2%
Clinton            40.2%
Trump             39.0%
Other                9.4%
Refused             8.5%
Would Not Vote  2.9%

1,125 LV (September 8 - September 12, 2016)

4-way Clinton +0.5
Clinton                       39.3%
Trump                        38.8%
Johnson                      7.8%
Stein                          2.2%
Don't Know/Refused    7.6%
Other                          2.4%
Won't Vote                  2.0%

1,125 LV (September 8 - September 12, 2016)

Polling Explorer defaults to a weekly view. Had to change it to daily to get these results.

Are they still changing methodologies?

I don't know, but they need to change their website. It doesn't auto update in the default state, making it useless to most.

Current
2-way (Change from 9/12) Clinton +4.3%
Clinton            42.8% (+2.6%)
Trump             38.5%  (-0.5%)
Other                8.4%  (-1.0%)
Refused             6.9%  (-1.6%) 
Would Not Vote  3.3%  (+0.4%)

1,155 LV (September 11 - September 15, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/12) Clinton +2.9
Clinton                       41.5% (+2.3%)
Trump                        38.6% (-0.2%)
Johnson                      6.5%   (-1.3%)
Stein                          2.3%   (+0.1%)
Don't Know/Refused    6.1%   (-1.5%)   
Other                          2.9%   (+0.5%)
Won't Vote                  2.1%   (+0.1%)

1,155 LV (September 11 - September 15, 2016)

Note to those using Polling Explorer, you have to hit "change" and specify to sort by "days" to get the latest results. Their program is junkier than junk of late and is just showing a weekly result with some lag.

It seems like the methodology is still a five-day rolling average. The intern (my guess) that wrote the story around Labor Day Weekend somehow used a 7-day range. I don't know how or why.

Wow, stupendous result! Clinton is surging!

Do I smell a recovery? Probably not...

BUT BUT BUT!!!! MUH EMERSON POLLS!!!!

Possibly.  Harry Enten tweeted Gallup favorability numbers that show her image improving over the past couple of days: https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/776831316981669888

If this is a real trend, it should start showing up in next week's polls.

Dear there are so many pollsters that are trash, including Reuters.

I hope sheis reasonably ahead by the debates lest Clinton's fall become a video clip that defines the next 10 or 20 years.

Reuters is still junk. Unless we get a steady trend in her direction, I can't see this as having any relevance.

There might actually be some increased support and sympathy now the actual facts regarding her health issue (Allergy triggered Phenomena) are know well known.

Time will tell...

I thought it was a sinus infection that wouldn't go away. I get what she got a lot.

So anyone know when Ipsos/Reuters are going to release their next batch of "50 State" (Or more like 42 state polls)?

I know it's a rolling weekly/biweekly/triweekly depending upon the sample size for the state, but usually they update weekly, and I'm ready to update my tracking spreadsheet for this poll...

If she can get over 43, maybe she will win?

This is Reuters people

IDK, they are OK, I think. But they should not change methodology during the cycle and should have 7-9 days average instead for 5 — they are very noisy right now.

LA Times has 7-days and about ~2500 sample size (350 per day), while IPSOS has 5-days and ~1100 sample size ( = just ~220 per day). If one kind of average them, they look OK.

     If Gary Johnson doesn't fade, 43% could conceivably be enough to win, which is pretty crazy.

if every little bump gets its own poll "result" then trump's and his family's victory lap (americans are too silly to see his tax records/gas chamber-gate/birtherism 2.0/ hillary would be shot anytime without bodyguards) should change something...at least for one week.

Thanks Classic Conservative!

Now... are you claiming that Clinton has a narrow lead, or is it tied race, or does Trump have a narrow lead????

Slightly confused about the exact meaning of your post, no hackery intended. :)

Current
2-way (Change from 9/15) TIED
Clinton            39.1% (-3.7%)
Trump             39.1%  (+0.6%)
Other                10.0%  (+1.6%)
Refused             7.4%  (-0.5%)  
Would Not Vote  4.4%  (+1.1%)

1,110 LV (September 15 - September 19, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/15) Trump+1.8
Trump                        39.2% (+0.6%)
Clinton                       37.4% (-4.1%)
Johnson                      7.4%   (+0.9%)
Stein                          2.4%   (+0.1%)
Don't Know/Refused    7.5%   (+1.4%)  
Other                          2.9%   (--%)
Won't Vote                  3.2%   (+1.1%)

1,110 LV (September 15 - September 19, 2016)

Junk

She actually increased her support among registered voters so all this movement is due to what I assume are shifts in their likely voter model. Another methodology change for the hallowed Reuters/Ipsos!

Of course she did, it's Reuters. Poll to be taken with appropriate grains of salt. My guess though is that it is more a few good Clinton days bouncing out of the poll than anything else.

Yeah... especially with LA Times moving in the opposite direction

I still dont get how you get the results, its shows Hillary with a 4 point lead for me.

It's showing a 7 pt Clinton lead through 9/19/16:

Clinton:39.4
Trump: 32.4

It was like this during the primaries too, the website makes no sense.

Yeah... apparently Clinton's making yuuge gains with "unlikely" voters. Doesn't make any sense

Nope, you just don't know how to use it properly :)

But it could be a lot easier if they simplified it really.

Theres a place to click for the match up and a place to put filters on said match up, im using the site just fine.

Well, if you used it properly you would get Trump +2 like it is. You have to click on a daily tracking rather than weekly which is default, maybe you are making a mistake there.

Im on mobile which could be an issue.

Direct links:

2-way LV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160808-20160921/type/day
2-way RV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/PD1:1/dates/20160808-20160921/type/day

4-way LV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160920/type/day
4-way RV: http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/PD1:1/dates/20160801-20160919/type/week

If you need to "hack" into a new day, all you need to do on the URL is change the end date (20160919 to 20160921, for example, it's in YYYYMMDD format).

Interestingly, the LV screen in both samples seems to introduce a great deal more "uncertainty" than the RV responses would suggest. How do they determine LV? Self-report?

()

Current
2-way (Change from 9/19) Clinton +6.3
Clinton            42.3% (+3.2%)
Trump             36.0%  (-3.1%)
Other                9.2%  (-0.8%)
Refused             8.4%  (+1.0%)  
Would Not Vote  4.0%  (+0.4%)

1,098 LV (September 18 - September 22, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/19) Clinton +5.2
Clinton                       41.0% (+3.6%)
Trump                        35.9% (-3.3%)
Johnson                      7.3%   (-0.1%)
Stein                          2.1%   (-0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused    8.4%   (+0.9%)  
Other                          2.3%   (-0.6%)
Won't Vote                  2.9%   (-0.3%)

1,098 LV (September 18 - September 22, 2016)

This pretty much was based on one-day's polling. Trump was tied yesterday in the 4-way, the 2-way was +3.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160923/type/day
4-way -
http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160923/type/day

Well... it could be that a very good Trump day dropped at the same time a very good Clinton day was added.

That's an unusually massive change in a tracker. I wonder if they changed methodology or something like that. Anyway, I'll take it!

I don't care what Reuters says, they're still junk.

Current
2-way (Change from 9/22) Clinton +6.2
Clinton            44.2% (+1.9%)
Trump             38.0%  (+2.0%)
Other                7.2%  (-2.0%)
Refused             7.2%  (-1.2%)  
Would Not Vote  3.3%  (-0.7%)

1,041 LV (September 22 - September 26, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/22) Clinton +5.2
Clinton                       42.6% (+1.6%)
Trump                        37.4% (+1.5%)
Johnson                      6.6%   (-0.7%)
Stein                          2.2%   (+0.1%)
Don't Know/Refused    7.0%   (-1.4%)  
Other                          2.5%   (+0.2%)
Won't Vote                  1.6%   (-1.3%)

1,041 LV (September 22 - September 26, 2016)

Numbers didn't change that much on the margins (+/- 0.1% in both races), but improved to 6% in 4-way due to rounding. Major candidates gained at expense of undecideds/won't vote/other candidate and Johnson.


Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160927/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160927/type/day

Basically the dynamic is that Trump has to win the vast majority of fence sitters to win. The good news for him is that they are leaving 3rd party candidates. The bad is that Hillary is doing ok with those that are now getting off. 

So in the same day we have a Trump +5 poll and a Clinton +6 poll.  Seems that the polling companies don't know what to make of voter turnout/demograpics in the coming election.

Except both companies are awful.

The Gravis poll wasn't of registered voters.

The Gravis one was 890 RVs.

Weird. Trump's only getting 38 percent in the 4 way? How can he possible win with that?

Current
2-way (Change from 9/26) Clinton +4.2
Clinton            42.7% (-1.5%)
Trump             38.5%  (+0.5%)
Other                7.7%  (+0.5%)
Refused             7.7%  (+0.5%) 
Would Not Vote  3.3%  (-0.7%)

2,088 LV (September 25-September 29, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/26) Clinton +3.2
Clinton                       41.1% (-1.5%)
Trump                        37.9% (+0.5%)
Johnson                      6.5%   (-0.1%)
Stein                          2.5%   (+0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused    7.4%   (+0.4%)   
Other                          2.2%   (-0.3%)
Won't Vote                  2.4%   (+0.8%)

2,088 LV (September 25-September 29, 2016)

They significantly upped the number of LV, which will make this sample post-debate heavy. They almost doubled the number of likely voters since 9/26.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160930/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20160930/type/day

Clinton now up 5.9 points among LVs, as of Oct 3.... but opening up an 11 point lead among RVs!

2-way (Change from 9/29) Clinton +7.1
Clinton            44.2% (+1.5%)
Trump             37.1%  (-1.4%)
Other                8.9%  (+1.2%)
Refused             6.6%  (-1.1%) 
Would Not Vote  3.2%  (-0.1%)

1,239 LV (September 29-October 3, 2016)

4-way (change from 9/29) Clinton +5.9
Clinton                       42.1% (+1.0%)
Trump                        36.2% (-1.7%)
Johnson                      7.9%   (-1.4%)
Stein                          2.2%   (-0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused      6.6%   (-0.8%)   
Other                          3.1%   (+0.9%)
Won't Vote                  1.9%   (-0.5%)

1,239 LV (September 29-October 3, 2016)

They ramped up the LV for the debate and then ramped them down. Not quite sure why. They basically briefly had a double sample. Reuters has done this before when they've shifted methodologies.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161004/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161004/type/day

Current
2-way (Change from 10/3) Clinton +3.8
Clinton            42.3% (-1.9%)
Trump             38.5%  (+1.4%)
Other                9.7%  (+0.8%)
Refused             6.3%  (-0.3%)  
Would Not Vote  3.1%  (-0.1%)

1,107 LV (October 2-6, 2016)

4-way (change from 10/3) Clinton +3.9
Clinton                       41.6% (-0.5%)
Trump                        37.7% (+1.5%)
Johnson                      8.5%   (+0.6%)
Stein                          1.9%   (-0.3%)
Don't Know/Refused      6.0%   (-0.6%)  
Other                          2.9%   (-0.2%)
Won't Vote                  1.5%   (-0.4%)

1,107 LV (October 2-6, 2016)

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161007/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161007/type/day

Margin at +3 in 2-way due to rounding.

about what i would have thought.

Reuters moves around without any tether to reality.

Clinton + 8
http://live.reuters.com/Event/Election_2016?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social



Trump trails Clinton by 8 points after tape scandal, debate - Reuters/Ipsos poll

By Chris Kahn

Donald Trump has fallen further behind Hillary Clinton and now trails her by 8 points among likely voters, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll, with 1 in 5 Republicans saying his vulgar comments about groping women disqualify him from the presidency.

The national tracking poll was launched after Sunday night's second presidential debate, where Trump was pressed to explain his comments in a 2005 videotape about grabbing women's genitalia. He described the remarks, which first surfaced on Friday, as "locker room" banter and apologized to Americans.

The poll released on Tuesday showed Clinton, the Democratic nominee, had increased her lead over Trump, the Republican nominee, to 8 percentage points on Monday from 5 points last week.

Trump was under pressure during Sunday's debate to restore confidence in his struggling campaign after dozens of lawmakers repudiated him. He hammered Clinton's handling of classified information while serving as secretary of state and referred to her as "the devil." At one point, he said he would jail Clinton if he were president.

Among those who said they watched at least portions of the debate, 53 percent said Clinton won while 32 percent said Trump won. The results fell along partisan lines, however: 82 percent of Democrats felt Clinton won, while 68 percent of Republicans felt that Trump won.

Among likely voters who watched the debate, 48 percent said they supported Clinton while 38 percent supported Trump.

What's Trump going to do if this continues, say literally all the polls are rigged?

Another scientific poll saying Donnie lost the debate. Sad!

Although, I still see this new trend of online and daily tracking polls as "Bunk" in its current form, and basically a relatively new phenomenon that might well become a new norm 10-20 years from now, there is still some relevant data if you look at daily/weekly swings.

This poll does seem to represent what we have seen from more traditional polling outfits and a dramatic swing towards Clinton in the aftermath of the 1st Presidential Debate, although pre-"MeowGate".

For any of y'all not from the West Coast back in the late '80s/early '90s and/or a bit young to be familiar with the term "Bunk" here's a link to Urban Dictionary....

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Bunk

Probably. He'll say they are all part of the supposedly corrupt, liberal media. Or, as his Twitter fans would put it, (((Media))).

Great result!

By the way, the thread subject does not have the current numbers of the poll...

Current
2-way (Change from 10/6) Clinton +7.8
Clinton            44.6% (+2.3%)
Trump             36.8%  (-1.7%)
Other                8.6%  (-1.1%)
Refused             6.4%  (+0.1%)  
Would Not Vote  3.6%  (+0.5%)

2,539 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

4-way (change from 10/6) Clinton +7.2
Clinton                       44.3% (+2.7%)
Trump                        37.1% (-0.6%)
Johnson                      5.9%   (-2.6%)
Stein                          2.1%   (+0.2%)
Don't Know/Refused      5.8%   (-0.2%)  
Other                          2.3%   (-0.6%)
Won't Vote                  2.5%   (+1.0%)

2,359 LV (October 6-10, 2016)

Back up to a double sample post the second debate.

Links

2-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_DS_13/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day
4-way - http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1/dates/20160801-20161011/type/day

in other news:


Reuters/Ipsos Generic Ballot (change from last week):
Democrats 46 (+4)
Republicans 36 (-2)
https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/786235238783430656?lang=de

Hello Speaker Pelosi if that's true

At this point, something has to give, anyways.

oh god pls no

At least put someone more competent in the Speaker's chair.

in terms of discipline and accomplishment, pelosi is amazingly gifted.....especially compared to boehner or ryan.

but she should go anyway...democrats really need some fresh blood.

What?

Pelosi is one of the best Democratic Speakers of all-time. She's is one of the biggest reasons why Obama's first two years are among the most productive first two years of any president.

Clinton 45.5%
Trump 37.0%
Gary Johnson 5.4%
Don't Know/Refused 4.7%
Other 2.9%

http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/TM651Y15_26/filters/LIKELY:1

Bruh.

Junkity junk junk junk.

That swing is impressive.

Reuters is reporting that Trump is being resilient against allegations sexual assault because voters want to make abortion illegal or really just want change.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-gains-on-clinton-despite-furor-over-women-election-comments-reuters-ipsos-poll/ar-AAjflec

Trololo, right?

just saw the average results. (clinton +4)

those are going to be published in every right-leaning blog and chain-mail for days cause they show trump only trailing by 4 and that's practically inside the MOE and and and....

The media really doesn't know how to properly report polls and polling.

they know but they need a horserace.