Talk Elections

Among registered voters:

49% Russ Feingold (D)
43% Ron Johnson (R, inc.)

47% Russ Feingold (D)
38% Ron Johnson (R, inc.)
7% Phil Anderson (L)

Among likely voters:

53% Russ Feingold (D)
42% Ron Johnson (R, inc.)

50% Russ Feingold (D)
40% Ron Johnson (R, inc.)
7% Phil Anderson (L)

The good people of Wisconsin realized they made a mistake in 2010.

That would be cool if they could poll WI-08 and WI-07

It is. But I'd rather see Duffy do it, he's a way better candidate.

This state, and New Hampshire are gone. Florida and Ohio look good for Republicans, but Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Illinois are very much in play. I'd like to see a real Indiana poll to see what the situation there really is.

I think NH, WI and IN are all gone at this point. If Kirk loses as well, Republicans really, really, really need to win that Senate race in Nevada. Looking tough right now, but we still got three months left. :)

Even if undecideds break for Johnson (not a given), Feingold's got this. Likely D.

Given the presidential numbers, if Clinton wins WI by 3 or less, Johnson can pull this off. The problem is, she'll win by 5 or more, and Johnson is NOT overperforming Trump by as much as he needs to. PPP should poll Illinois soon, we really need a good poll there. Given how Kirk won his D+6 (or so) House seat in 2008 even as Obama did really well, and how Duckworth underperformed Obama in 2012 in a Democratic-leaning district against a Tea Partier, I am still holding off hope in Illinois. Nevada and Pennsylvania will also be close. I'm not worried about Missouri anymore, and North Carolina could fall, but Burr is still doing okay in the new PPP poll. Arizona is also a wildcard (Likely R with McCain, Likely D with Ward).

One of few polls where the Democrat does better among likely voters?

Johnson has been a pretty bad senator, absent on a ton of votes, rambles about un-important things. He'll lose, hope Duffy can take out Baldwin in 2018 though.

I think it has been trending this way the past few weeks? Looks like the result of Trump relying on some less likely/common voters and the GOP losing some very reliable voters (educated whites, e.g.).

I have no doubt it will be highly competitive but Baldwin strikes me as definitely much more clever than Feingold though

Who are you voting for?

New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Marquette Law School on 2016-08-07 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=55320160807181)

Summary: D: 50%, R: 40%, I: 7%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/08/10/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds/)

I wouldn't really say bipolar. Much like the rest of the country, it just has two different electorates in midterms and presidential years. Thompson would've utterly destroyed Baldwin in 2010 and Feingold would've curbstomped Johnson in 2012.

A Feingold victory would be the highlight of the night for me.