Talk Elections

Clinton 43
Trump 24
Johnson 7
Stein 4

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3013245-Elway-Poll-Governor-President-081516.html

But I thought this was one of his secret states???


Pretty low number for Stein all things considered.

Trump under 25, lol

Clinton leads 45-24 among likely voters. Safe, safe, super safe D

That's an ever bigger margin than Obama in 2008 in a state that was a perfect fit for him.
Then again Washington state must be one of the most educated states in the union and Trump is about as appealing as cholera to these voters.

xingkerui could expand on this a little more since he's got a Washington State avatar and NOVA Green could with his Oregon avatar but Clinton +19 is almost certainly a 12 point lead at the worst in Oregon

I'm happy to live in such a freedom state! :)

People claiming that Washington will at least trend toward Trump are making the mistake of assuming that all white voters are trending Republican. That's not the case in the Pacific Northwest. Washington and Oregon have trended Democratic, since nearly all of the population growth has been in the Seattle/Portland areas. Trump is a horrible fit for Washington, and he'll get annihilated west of the Cascades. He'll win most of the ultra conservatives in Eastern WashingtonWestern Idaho, but there's also a sizable Latino population in areas like Yakima, so that could be helping Clinton even more. Even though Obama was probably a slightly better fit for Washington than Hillary, I expect her to win by more, simply because we hate Trump so much here.

I'd say that NOVAGreen could tell us the most about Oregon, but I'd expect most of what I said to be true to an extent there as well, and I'd be stunned if Hillary didn't win by double digits.

I'm sick of all these polls with loads of undecideds and third party support.

I knew, personally, tons of Trump supporters living in Spokane. I have met zero in the Seattle area since moving back.

This is all true. Adding onto this, Washington is historically friendly to third-party candidates, so Johnson and Stein should both do well here. I expect Trump to be hurt by Johnson much more than Clinton is hurt by Stein. I think there's a decent chance that the only county in Washington that ends up swinging towards Trump will be Lewis County (something like 90% white, no big cities, seems like a place Trump might do well).

The margin is believable but that's a high undecided number.

A+ rated pollster according to 538.

That, like most of the other state polls that have been coming out recently, seems consistent with a national lead for Hillary of about 8%. Reassuring to not see any discrepancies there.

Trump at 24%. LOL. But 43% is also pretty weak for Hillary.

I was in Enumclaw yesterday, and I'm pretty sure I saw enough Trump supporters there to cover the entire 24% in this poll, if you include that one guy in Ellensburg with his sign next to the freeway.

I'm really looking forward to seeing our county map this November.

I'm honestly not expecting that many flips from 2012, though Wahkiakum and Skamania could flip, and if there's one county in the east that Clinton might have a chance in, it's probably Whitman. Kittias and Spokane could trend toward Trump. I'd be stunned if Clinton actually won Yakima, but I wouldn't be surprised if it trended her way.

Why is WA such a freedom state? It's so unfair :( WI is only a freedom state every 4 years.

Oregon is very similar on all counts, except maybe a lower Hispanic proportion in central Oregon, and a lower percentage of population east of the Cascades (in Oregon, about 13.1% (http://www.oregon-demographics.com/counties_by_population) of the population is in counties east of the Cascades, including Hood River County, whereas in Washington, about 20.0% (http://data.spokesman.com/census/2010/washington/counties/) of the population is in counties east of the Cascades).

It's telling that this time, a Likely Voter screen gives Democrats an edge. I suspect that this implies a higher level of formal education on the average. Donald Trump is now doing badly with college-educated white people, usually the dream voters for Republicans of all kinds.

For now I consider a Likely Voter screen more relevant. Well-educated white voters who now reject Donald Trump are more likely to convince someone with a "Make America Great Again" cap that Donald Trump is a mistake than be convinced that Donald Trump really will make America great again.   

Yet another data point showing that the LV/RV split is either a wash or somewhat favors Clinton this cycle.  Love it.

The level of undecideds are ridiculous.

Hey now. That's uncalled for.

I don't dislike Idaho, but the two are politically very similar. :P

Dammit, poll a close state for once

Indiana?

Something that makes me not regret clicking on this child board.

Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri have been polled a lot, and they are not supposed to be close in a close election. Obama won Indiana in 2008. South Carolina has never been close for Obama.

Then there are Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio.  Big trouble for Trump in that group.

When Trump is losing Colorado, New Hampshire, and Virginia by low-single-digit margins, then Trump is in huge trouble.

He is very close in Iowa and Nevada.

...I'd be interested in statewide polls of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.... don't forget Alaska.

That's my point. Clinton +19 in Washington is good, but not exactly exciting.

It is a greater margin than either of President Obama's victories in Washington State

Which is good, but I love the polls that show the Donald tied in Indiana or Clinton ahead in Arizona. If there was a PPP poll that found Trump up by only 9 in WV, I would consider that exciting.

There are key similarities and significant differences between Oregon and Washington...

One of the most obvious differences is the proportion of voters concentrated in the largest urban area. In 2012 52% of Washington GE votes were cast in Metro-Seattle-Tacoma (Using a very narrow definition that includes only 3 counties King, Snohomish, and Pierce). One could easily expand Metro Seattle-Tacoma to include Kitsap, Mason, Island, and Thurston.

By Contrast, although Metro-Portland (Excluding Clark County WA) has a huge chunk of total statewide votes, slightly less than 45% of statewide votes were cast in the classic Tri-Counties (Multnomah, Washington, and Clackamas).

Oregon has a much larger population located outside of the major Metro area than Washington State, hence some of the PVI variance over the past few election cycles.

For example, the PVI in Washington State actually trended Democrat between '08 and '12 versus, the national average, wherebye Oregon actually trended slightly Republican during the same election cycle.

That being said, Multnomah County Oregon (Portland + Gresham) that accounts for 20% of the state population is a much more Democratic County than Kings County (Seattle+ Eastside and Southside suburbs).

McCain and Romney both managed to garner about 28% of the vote in King County in '08/'12. This "A Rated Poll" appears to indicate that Trump only has about 14% of the total vote at this time, essentially a 50% collapse of what is left of the "base Republican vote".

If we were to extrapolate this to Multnomah County, where both McCain and Romney garnered only 21% of the total vote. If these polling patterns hold, that would account to only 10% of voters in the largest county in the state.

Now, we move onto Washington County, one of the wealthiest counties in the state home to the most diverse ethnic electorate in the state, that used to be a "rock-ribbed Republican" 60-40 Bush Sr back in '88 and is now more like a 60-40 Democrat county (13.3% of '12 electorate). Trump barely won 55% of the vote running unopposed in the primaries, and quite frankly I would not be surprised to see it going Clinton +25 this election cycle.

Let's move downstate....

I posted on several other threads, namely the Oregon Democratic Party thread, regarding the complete destruction of the Hillary '08 versus '16 Primary coalition, where she got destroyed in "downstate" counties against Bernie that overwhelmingly supported her in the '08 Dem Primaries.

My major comments consisted of collapse of the Hillary '08 coalition in downstate in heavily Working Class communities, as well as a significant improvement in middle and upper-middle class Democratic  populations in (Jackson, Deschutes, Benton, and Metro-PDX) in that primary.

Despite the Hillbots (You know who you are ;) ) I said the biggest threat to Hillary was not at the hands of a small number of straw-men Bernie-Bros, but rather solid Democrats >35 years who had major concerns regarding the direction of the party, that felt abandoned over the past two decades (Despite overwhelmingly supporting Obama in the '08 GE).

I still envision that Trump might make minor inroads over McCain '08 numbers in parts of Southern Oregon (Josephine. Coos, & Douglas Counties), as well as potentially in certain parts of the Mid-Valley (Linn County), but it does seem that if we use current national numbers, Oregon actually might have a record level of support for a Democratic Presidential candidate potentially even surpassing LBJ in '64....

One item that I did not mention, is that the most Republican counties in Oregon are actually the most Latino counties in the State....

Eastern Oregon counties:

Malheur Co (69% Romney/McCain in '08/'16)- 33% Latino
Morrow Co (59-65 Romney/McCain in '08/'16)- 34% Latino
Umatilla Co (60-62 McCain/Romney in '08/'16)- 25% Latino


Central Oregon Counties:

Marion Co (47-50% McCain/Romney in '08/'16)- 25% Latino
Yamhill Co (49-51% McCain/ Romney in '08/'16)- 15% Latino
Polk Co (49-51% McCain/ Romney in '08/'16)- 13% Latino

Now, all being said the Latino-American population in Oregon is less established, and with significantly lower voting turnout rates than most other communities within the state....

We did see the actual results in the Oregon Democratic Primary in heavily Latino precincts, that voted above city-wide average in Salem, Cornelius, Klamath Falls, Hood River for Bernie Sanders, but in other heavily Latino precincts (Woodburn and parts of East Portland more heavily Hillary than the statewide averages).

All being said, I expect Trump to slightly overperform in several Southern Oregon Counties (Douglas, Josephine, and Coos), certain parts of the Mid-Valley (Linn) and several parts of Eastern Oregon, but his downstate vote improvements over Romney/McCain will likely be offset, by decreased performance in heavily Latino counties of Eastern Oregon, wealthier "high-growth" upper-middle class California retirees in Jackson and Deschutes, with an off-set in most of the Central Willamette Valley from marginal increase among older Anglos, offset by younger and newer voters (Polk, Yamhill, and Marion).

I would point out that the Seattle-Tacoma MSA includes the three counties you mentioned, but the Portland MSA includes Multnomah, Washington, Clackamas, Columbia, and Yamhill counties in Oregon. The former includes 51% of Washington's population, and the latter 48%, which isn't that big a difference.

Also of note, Lane County does not have a good analog in Washington--it is one of Oregon's more populous counties (the most populous outside the Portland metro area), but is very liberal. The most populous counties in Washington outside of the Seattle area are Spokane County and Clark County, which both consistently vote to the right of the nation. The closest analog to Lane County in Washington is probably Thurston County, but it has a lower population than Lane, and therefore accounts for a much lower percentage of Washington's population than Lane does of Oregon's.

The point I'm making is that the percentage of the population in the "very liberal" Oregon counties (Multnomah, Washington, Lane, Benton, Lincoln, Clatsop, and Hood River) is very close to the percentage in the "very liberal" Washington counties (King, Snohomish, Thurston, Whatcom, Jefferson, and San Juan), at ~48% and ~47%, respectively. I would concede that Oregon has a higher proportion of its population in lean-R territory (~25% in counties that gave Romney between 48% and 53% of the vote in 2012) than Washington (~16%). As for very conservative counties, it's not a very big difference... ~10% in Oregon, and ~8% in Washington.